January marked the fifth straight
month that the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) has reported a decline
in its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI). The index, based on newly signed
contracts for the purchase of existing homes, was down 2.8 percent from its
December level.
The index in January was at
122.8 compared to 125.5 in December and has lost 10 points since August. Still,
pending sales were up 13 percent compared to a year earlier. This January’s
PHSI was, in fact, the highest for any January on record.
Analysts had expected the index to be
flat but individual estimates by those polled by Econoday all overshot the
actual results. They covered a range from a 1.5 percent downturn to 0.5 percent
growth. The consensus was for zero change.
“Pending home sales fell in January
because there are simply not enough homes to match the demand on the market,”
said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “That said, there has been an
increase in permits and requests to build new homes.” Yun said that increase in
single-family permits has been consistent for eight months and is a good sign
that the supply and demand imbalance in the residential real estate market
could be easing as soon as mid-2021.
“There will also be a natural
seasonal upswing in inventory in spring and summer after few new listings
during the winter months,” he said. “These trends, along with an anticipated
ramp-up in home construction will provide for much-needed supply.”
Following a week where January’s
existing-home sales increased, Yun noted that pending contracts are a great
early indicator for upcoming closed sales but stressed that the timing of the
relationship between existing-home sales and pending home sales may not be in
lockstep.
“The two measurements aren’t always
perfectly correlated due to varying amounts of time required to close a
contract,” Yun said. “This is because a number of fallouts can occur due to a
variety of factors, including a buyer not obtaining mortgage financing, a
problem with a home inspection, or an appraisal issue.”
He noted that the economy is showing
promising signs of improvement, and many millions of Americans are now receiving
a COVID-19 vaccination. Still, he cautioned that the better economic outlook,
rising inflation prospects and higher budget deficits will soon drive increases
in interest rates. “I don’t foresee mortgage rates jumping to an alarming
level,” he said, “but we should prepare for a rise of at least a decimal point
or two.”
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