Uncommon Knowledge
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As we head into peak home-buying season, signs of life have begun to spring up in the housing market.
Even so, still-high mortgage rates and home prices amid historically low housing stock continue to put homeownership out of reach for many.
Moreover, the National Association of Realtors agreed to a monumental $418 million settlement on March 15 following a verdict favoring home sellers in a class action lawsuit. Still subject to court approval, the settlement requires changes to broker commissions that will upend the buying and selling model that has been in place for years.
Elevated mortgage rates, out-of-reach home prices and record-low housing stock are the perennial weeds that experts say hopeful home buyers can expect to contend with this spring—and beyond.
“The housing market is likely to continue to face the dual affordability constraints of high home prices and elevated interest rates in 2024,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, in an emailed statement. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast.”
Despite ongoing affordability hurdles, Fannie Mae forecasts an increase in home sales transactions compared to last year. Experts also anticipate a slower rise in home prices this year compared to recent years, but price fluctuations will continue to vary regionally and depend strongly on local market supply.
U.S. home prices declined in January for the third consecutive month due to high borrowing costs, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. But prices year-over-year jumped 6%—the fastest annual rate since 2022.
Chief economist at First American Financial Corporation Mark Fleming predicts a “flat stretch” ahead.
“If the 2020-2021 housing market was too hot, then the 2023 market was probably too cold, but 2024 won’t yet be just right,” Fleming said in his 2024 forecast.
For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.
“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”
And, of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off—which experts say is imminent despite rates edging back up toward 7%. For the week ending April 11, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.88%, according to Freddie Mac.
However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.
“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.
He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.
Nonetheless, Kuba Jewgieniew, CEO of Realty ONE Group, a real estate brokerage company, is optimistic about a recovery this year.
“[W]e’re definitely looking forward to a better housing market in 2024 as interest rates start to settle around 6% or even lower,” says Jewgieniew.
Following years of litigation, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers.
The plaintiffs claimed that the leading national trade association for real estate brokers and agents “conspired to require home sellers to pay the broker representing the buyer of their homes in violation of federal antitrust law.”
Though the landmark settlement is subject to court approval, most consider it a done deal.
The settlement requires NAR to enact new rules, including prohibiting offers of broker compensation on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings. The rule is set to take effect in mid-July, once the settlement receives judge approval.
Moreover, sellers will no longer be required to pay buyer broker commissions and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with their buyer clients.
NAR denies any wrongdoing and maintains that its current policies benefit buyers and sellers. The organization believes it’s not liable for seller claims related to broker commissions, stating that it has never set commissions and that commissions have always been negotiable.
Per the settlement’s terms, the costs associated with buying and selling a home are set to change dramatically.
“The primary things that will change are the decoupling of the seller commission and the buyer commission in the MLS,” says Rita Gibbs, a Realtor at Realty One Group Integrity in Tucson. “It’s gonna cause some chaos.”
While sellers will no longer be able to offer broker compensation in the MLS, there’s no rule prohibiting off-MLS negotiations. Because of this, Gibbs suspects buyers and sellers will continue offering broker compensation off the MLS.
The Department of Justice confirmed it will permit listing brokers to display compensation details on their websites. However, buyer agents will need to undergo the tedious task of visiting countless broker websites to find who’s offering what.
Michael Gorkowski, a Virginia-based real estate agent with Compass, is also trying to figure out how to manage the potential ruling.
“We often work with buyers for many months and sometimes years before they find exactly what they’re looking for,” Gorkowski says. “So in a case where a seller isn’t offering a co-broker commission, we will have to negotiate that the buyer pays an agreed-upon commission prior to starting their search.”
“In the short term, it is absolutely going to injure buyers, especially FHA and VA buyers,” Gibbs says. “With rare exception, these buyers are not in a position to pay for their own agent.”
Gibbs says that if sellers don’t offer compensation, many buyers who can’t otherwise afford to pay a broker will choose to go unrepresented.
Gorkowski notes that veterans taking out VA loans face a unique challenge under the new rules. “[P]er the VA requirements, buyers cannot pay so it must be negotiated with the seller for now.”
As a result, NAR is calling on the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to revise its policies prohibiting VA buyers from paying broker commissions. Even so, there’s skepticism that the federal government will be able to implement changes in time for the July deadline.
Gibbs and Gorkowski are among the many agents especially concerned about first-time home buyers. After July, first-time and VA buyers will be required to sign a buyer-broker agreement stating that they will compensate their broker—but Gibbs says many won’t have the means to do so.
In this situation, agents would likely only show buyers homes where sellers are offering compensation.
“This is a very troubling situation,” Gorkowski says.
With many homeowners “locked in” at ultra-low interest rates or unwilling to sell due to high home prices, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while—even as some homeowners may finally be forced to sell due to major life events such as divorce, job changes or a growing family.
“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.
Housing stock remains near historic lows—especially entry-level supply—which has propped up demand and sustained ultra-high home prices. Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.
Yet, some hopeful housing stock signs have begun to sprout:
The most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks builder sentiment, saw a fourth consecutive monthly rise, surpassing a crucial threshold with an increase from 48 to 51 in March. A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.
At the same time, new single-family building permits ticked up 1% in February—the 13th consecutive monthly increase—according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Though some housing market data indicates signs of growth are in store this spring home-buying season, persistently high mortgage rates may hinder activity from fully flourishing.
Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.
Existing-home sales came to life in February, shooting up 9.5% from the month before, according to the latest data from the NAR. Sales dipped 3.3% from a year ago.
Experts attribute the monthly jump to a bump in inventory.
“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report.
Existing inventory rose 5.9%—logging 1.07 million unsold homes at the end of February. However, there are still only 2.9 months of inventory at the current sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market falling between four and six months.
Meanwhile, existing home prices continue to soar to unprecedented heights, reaching $384,500, which marks the eighth consecutive month of yearly price increases and a February median home price record.
Sales of newly constructed single-family houses ticked down by a nominal 0.3% compared to January, but outpaced February 2023 sales by 5.9%, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.
Amid a high percentage of homeowners still locked in to low mortgage rates, home builders have been picking up the slack.
“New construction continues to be an outsized share of the housing inventory,” said Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, in an emailed statement.
Sturtevant notes that declining new home prices are coming amid a recent trend of builders introducing smaller and more affordable homes to the market.
The median price for a new home in February was $400,500, down 7.6% from a year ago.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index rose 1.6% in February from the month prior even as mortgage rates approached 7% by the end of the month. Pending transactions declined 7% year-over-year.
A pending home sale marks the point in the home sales transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator of future closed sales.
The Midwest and South saw monthly transaction gains while the Northeast and West saw declines due to affordability challenges in those higher-cost regions.
“While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress from the lows of late last year,” said Yun, in the report.
Though down from its 2023 high of 7.79%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2024 remains well over 6% amid rising home values. As a result, home buyers continue to face affordability challenges.
According to data from its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report, property data provider Attom found that median-priced single-family homes remain less affordable than the historical average in over 95% of U.S. counties.
For one, the data uncovered that expenses are eating up more than 32% of the average national wage. Common lending guidelines require monthly mortgage payments, property taxes and homeowners insurance to comprise 28% or less of your gross income.
At the same time, home prices and homeownership expenses continue to outpace wage growth.
Consequently, the latest expense-to-wage ratio is hovering at one of the highest points over the past decade, according to the Attom report, despite some slight affordability improvements over the last two quarters.
“Affording a home remains a financial stretch, or a pipe dream, for so many households,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom.
Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.
Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:
Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:
Despite some areas of the country experiencing monthly price declines, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.
“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.
Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.
“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.
“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.
Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.
Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.
“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.
In February, total foreclosure filings were down 1% from the previous month but up 8% from a year ago, according to Attom.
“These trends could signify evolving financial landscapes for homeowners, prompting adjustments in market strategies and lending practices,” said Barber, in a report.
Lenders began foreclosure on 22,575 properties in February, up 4% from the previous month and 11% from a year ago. Meanwhile, real estate-owned properties, or REOs, which are homes unsold at foreclosure auctions and taken over by lenders, spiked year-over-year in three states: South Carolina (up 51%), Missouri (up 50%) and Pennsylvania (up 46%).
Despite foreclosure activity trending up nationally and certain areas of the country seeing notable annual increases in REOs, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.
“Foreclosure activity is still only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels … and isn’t likely to be back to 2019 numbers until sometime in mid-to-late 2024,” says Sharga.
The biggest reasons for this, Sharga explains, are the strength of the economy—we’re still seeing low unemployment and steady wage growth—along with excellent loan quality.
Massive home price growth in homeowner equity over the past few years has also helped reduce foreclosures.
Sharga says that some 80% of today’s homeowners have more than 20% equity in their property. So, while there may be more foreclosure starts in 2024—due in part to Covid-era mortgage relief programs phasing out—foreclosure auctions and lender repossessions should remain below 2019 levels.
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.
Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.
“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”
Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.
“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”
Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.
Declining mortgage rates will likely incentivize would-be buyers anxious to own a home to jump into the market. Expect this increased demand amid today’s tight housing supply to put upward pressure on home prices.
Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.
If you’re in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it won’t matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. However, if you are looking to buy real estate as a short-term investment, it will come with more risk if you buy at the height before a recession.
Source: forbes.com
There are now 526,000 single-family homes active unsold on the market. That’s up 2.6% from the previous week when the data included the Easter holiday. It’s a holiday week jump so it’s not super crazy, but a 2.6% jump in unsold inventory in a week is very notable. This is absolutely a function of high and rising mortgage rates. I’ve been sharing this view for two full years now. As mortgage rates rise, inventory rises. Or, to put it another way: demand slows, inventory grows. So, rates are up and inventory is undeniably growing.
Available inventory of unsold homes on the market is 30% greater than last year at this time and 102% more than in mid-April 2022. There are 120,000 more homes on the market now than there were last year. There are 250,000 more homes on the market now than two years ago. Much of this inventory increase is concentrated is a few key markets.
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Two years ago, rates were obviously rising for the first time in years and inventory was rising too. Inventory was coming off the record lows of the pandemic, but was already increasing 2-3% per week as demand slowed.
Year-over-year inventory growth like this can lead to home-price declines in the future since sales price measures lag way behind the changes in supply and demand. Because we have 30% year-over-year inventory gains now, we’ll be on the lookout for more signals of weakness in home prices as the year progresses.
It’s important to note that we don’t see any signs in the data of a major home-price crash. In early 2022, inventory rose quickly and home prices fell in Q4 of that year. Home prices recovered in 2023 very quickly though. If we finally get some stability in mortgage rates, expect stability also in home prices. If we are in a world of continued rising mortgage rates, supply and demand will continue their imbalance and we’ll likely see price adjustments.
Inventory growth is from a combination of fewer buyers as affordability worsens, but also gradually improving seller volume. There were 66,000 new listings unsold last week plus another 20,000 immediate sales for 86,000 total new listings. That’s 32% more new listings last week than the same week a year ago.
The measure from last year included last year’s Easter holiday weekend so some of this 32% is from that easy comparison. But each week in 2024 is averaging 13% more sellers than last year at this time. So we have obvious seller growth as we settle into mortgage rates higher for longer.
This concept is counter-intuitive. Many listeners are familiar with the concept of a mortgage rate lock-in. This was the topic of my Top of Mind podcast interview last week with Jonah Coste from FHFA discussing their paper on the lock-in effect.
The lock-in premise is that if rates rise, it becomes more expensive for homeowners to move, so higher rates create more lock-in and fewer sellers. But that’s proving to be only partially true. The lock-in effect keeps us with relatively few sellers: 80,000 instead of 100,000 each week in previous healthy years, but we have more sellers every week than last year even though mortgage rates are higher now.
In fact, there were more new listings last week at 66,000 than any week in 2023 and we have a couple months of spring still for that number to climb.
Meanwhile, there were 69,000 new pendings last week. These are homes that were listed, took offers and started the contract process. It takes just under 40 days on average to close the transaction, so these are sales that will close in May for the most part.
The 69,000 contracts is 10% more than a year ago and 7% more than the previous week, which included the Easter holiday. So like the inventory numbers, last week’s big jump is mostly a rebound from the holiday. But it’s really encouraging that sales each week continue to come in ahead of last year.
If rates finally fall, we’ll see this transaction rate accelerate, and we’ll see inventory fall too. But there doesn’t seem to be any inclination of rates falling. This weekly new pendings data is a very handy measure of interest-rate sensitivity.
There are 371,000 single-family homes in contract right now. That’s just 4% more than last year at this time. A lot of places in the country still have fewer sales than last year. The market is trying to grow, but a new jump in mortgage rates doesn’t help. More sales are happening with cash right now, so the mortgage indices are still at record lows. If we get lucky and rates don’t keep climbing, then we’ll continue to see home sales run just a little ahead of last year. The more stable rates stay, the more sales can inch forward.
The median price of the homes that took offers last week was $389,900. That is actually below 2022 by 1%. In 2022, home prices still had pandemic momentum into the second quarter. The median price of all the homes in contract is $399,000, which means the homes that sell in April and May will be 5% higher priced than 2023.
The median price of the active market was $447,527 last week. That’s up for the week and 1.7% above last year. The asking prices are leading indicators of where future sales prices will happen. And the growth in those leading indicators is not very strong — just barely above last year at this time.
The price of the newly listed cohort came in pretty strong in the week after Easter at $435,000, which was a new all-time high for that measure. So, not all of the pricing indicators are bearish. That’s good to keep our eyes on.
On the other hand, 32.1% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s up a fraction from the previous week, 10 basis points. If this most recent move in mortgage rates is stifling homebuyers, we’ll see the price reductions number jump in next Monday’s video.
Some of the homes that are on the market and expected offers last week didn’t get their offers because of the most recent mortgage rate jump. If they don’t get the offer, then on Monday or Tuesday, a few are going to reduce their asking price to try to stimulate demand.
Two takeaways from the price-reductions data: One, next week we will be watching for how many listings cut their prices as a result of newly higher mortgage rates. We can see that moment in September of 2022 when price cuts jumped and we saw it again last September when rates jumped. Will we see it again in next Monday’s data?
And two, because price cuts are a bit high and climbing now, we have to look at that as a slightly bearish signal for home prices for the rest of the year. Transaction volume is climbing but prices do not appear to be climbing considering these levels of unaffordability.
Source: housingwire.com
Many travelers have France on their minds, especially with the 2024 Olympic Games coming up in Paris. And what better way to fly to any country than on its namesake airline and flag carrier?
But, is Air France actually good? Here’s our breakdown of what travelers considering flying to France or beyond need to know about Air France.
From booking to boarding, here’s each step of flying on Air France.
Making reservations: If you’re determined to fly Air France, you can head straight to Air France’s website to search and book your flight. However, you’ll usually be better served by searching through a flight aggregator such as Google Flights. After finding a good fit, Google Flights will link you to Air France for booking.
Check-in: Air France’s online check-in opens 30 hours before departure — except for flights from Atlanta or Detroit, for which check-in opens 24 hours before departure. Check-in closes 60 minutes before departure for Air France flights departing the U.S.
Boarding: Air France groups passengers into five zones for boarding. Elite members and premium cabin passengers board in Sky Priority zones 1 and 2, while economy passengers are grouped into zones 3 through 5.
In-flight experience: Air France offers an extensive library of movies and TV shows to help pass long-haul flights, with free headphones provided. Food and drink options will vary based on your service class and flight length. Air France offers Wi-Fi on 90% of its aircraft fleet, with three different speed options available for purchase.
Airlines understandably showcase their best elements in advertisements. So, that’s why it’s important to get advice from independent sources on just how good an airline is — and Air France is generally regarded as one of the best airlines in the world in independent award ratings.
In the Skytrax World Airline Awards for 2023, Air France was voted #7 in the world — placing the airline ahead of stalwarts Cathay Pacific Airways, EVA Air and Korean Air. While it didn’t take top honors in any individual field, Air France scored high marks in the Skytrax 2023 rankings in the following areas:
World’s Best First Class (#2).
Best Airline in Europe (#2).
Best Airline Staff in Europe (#2).
World’s Best Business Class (#7).
World’s Best Premium Economy (#8).
In-Flight Entertainment (#10).
World’s Best Economy Class (#16).
World’s Cleanest Airline (#19).
Best Airport Services (#20).
However, Air France failed to land in the top 20 for Best Airline Cabin Crew Worldwide and finished outside the top 10 in the world’s most family-friendly airlines.
Other independent rating awards won by Air France include Business Traveler USA’s Best First Class in the World and the World Traveler Awards’ Europe Leading Airline 2023.
According to AirlineRatings.com, Air France’s safety rating is 7 out of 7 stars. Air France hasn’t had a fatal crash in the past 10 years.
This is an improvement from recent audits. In a 2022 blog post, AirlineRatings explained that it downgraded Air France’s safety rating after it was revealed that two of the airline’s pilots got into a physical fight midflight. Reportedly, cabin crew had to intervene to ensure the safety of the flight.
This incident came to light just days after the French Bureau of Enquiry and Analysis for Civil Aviation Safety (BEA) released a report indicating that Air France’s pilots weren’t rigorous about following safety procedures.
Air France shares a loyalty program with Netherlands-based KLM Royal Dutch Airlines and smaller airline Transavia. The joint loyalty program is called Flying Blue.
Despite being a European-based loyalty program, Flying Blue partners with most major U.S.-based transferable point programs, including:
Flying Blue used to use a convoluted pricing scheme for award redemptions based on the origin and destination of the flight. However, it recently standardized award rates. While Flying Blue doesn’t publish award rates, travelers have found that Flying Blue award rates between the U.S. and Europe now start at:
20,000 Flying Blue miles in economy.
35,000 Flying Blue miles in premium economy.
50,000 Flying Blue miles in business.
Air France often runs monthly award discount programs that can reduce the cost even more. However, be wary if you see award rates that seem too good to be true. In December 2023, Air France ran a flash sale that discounted business class awards to Europe to just 13,500 Flying Blue miles one-way plus $250 in taxes/fees.
Unfortunately, the Flying Blue director later got cold feet and canceled award fares for most of the 2,500 travelers who took advantage of the deal.
Not every airline is suitable for every traveler. Here are a few examples of what kind of travelers should find another airline to fly:
Travelers who want to visit Australia, New Zealand or parts of Southeast Asia. Air France operates an incredible route network to almost 200 destinations across over 80 countries. However, it doesn’t fly everywhere in the world. Air France’s route map doesn’t extend to Australia, New Zealand or parts of Southeast Asia like Malaysia.
Travelers who want to visit Asia. Particularly for travelers based on the U.S. West Coast, it will be an excruciatingly long journey to Asia via Paris. For example, flying from San Francisco to Seoul takes more than 23 hours. Other airlines can fly you to Asia in almost half of that flying time.
Travelers who are Francophobes. Air France is unabashedly French, from serving French wines to French being the primary language spoken onboard. If you’re not a fan of French culture, it’s best to find another airline that serves your destination.
Air France is generally ranked as one of the best airlines to fly — particularly in first class. Its loyalty program partners with many U.S. point programs and can offer excellent redemption rates, making it an appealing option to fly to Europe.
However, its Flying Blue loyalty program has been known to backtrack on deals that it offers to travelers. Even so, Air France can be a great option when traveling from the U.S. to Europe.
You want a travel credit card that prioritizes what’s important to you. Here are our picks for the best travel credit cards of 2024, including those best for:
Source: nerdwallet.com
Active inventory still needs to be faster for my taste. My model has active inventory growing at least 11,000-17,000 every week with higher rates. This model was based on rates over 7.25%, but even when mortgage rates headed toward 8% last year, we didn’t see that kind of growth in inventory. This week, inventory fell week to week, but that’s the Easter bunny’s fault.
While the number of new listings isn’t growing as fast as I thought it would this year, it’s still growing, which means we have more sellers looking to buy a home once they sell. This variable can change when we experience a recession or job loss. However, for now, this is a plus for the U.S. housing market, and we should ignore the decline last week.
Number of new listings last week, by year:
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates go higher and demand falls, the price-cut percentage grows; when rates drop, and demand gets better, the percentage falls.
It’s also critical to consider the year-over-year data with this line. Last year, when mortgage rates were heading toward 8%, the year-over-year price-cut percentage was continuously declining, which makes sense when you consider 2022 was a very abnormal year with the most significant home sales crash ever. As inventory is growing and demand isn’t booming on the mortgage side of things, the price-cut percentage is increasing year over year.
It’s critical to keep track of this data line as it shows price growth cooling down. That’s always what the doctor ordered because we have had massive housing inflation post-COVID-19. Having accurate weekly data gives us a big advantage to see what’s coming next.
Here’s the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
We had some good and bad news last week with mortgage rates.
First, the bad news” The 10-year yield broke a critical support level on Friday, and if we get more bond market selling, that will pressure mortgage rates higher.
But the good news is that the spread between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates is getting much better, sooner than I thought it would this year. We didn’t see much reaction on Friday with mortgage rates because the spreads were good. This is a huge plus because if and when the 10-year yield falls and if the spreads get even better, this means we could quickly get sub-6% mortgage rates with the 10-year yield at 3.37% — without it even breaking my “Gandalf line in the sand.”
I wrote a detailed article on Friday analyzing the jobs report, and showing how the latest labor data gives the Federal Reserve a pathway to land the plane if they want. See here for more details and charts.
As you can see below, even though the growth rate of inflation has fallen a lot, CPI inflation has gone from over 9% year over year to 3.2%; the 10-year yield is still elevated. As always, the labor data is more important than inflation data for now.
Purchase application data didn’t move much last week, making it back-to-back weeks with flat weekly data. It was flat on a week-to-week basis and down 13% year over year. Since November 2023, after making holiday adjustments, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints and two flat prints. Year to date, we have had four positive prints, six negative prints and two flat prints.
The data tells me that since late 2022, many people have been waiting for lower mortgage rates, and even though rates are elevated compared to the last decard, people still jumped back into the market. Imagine if mortgage rates stayed near 6% for a year — mortgage demand would grow and we wouldn’t need tax credits to boost demand for existing homes.
We are jumping right from jobs week into inflation week with the upcoming CPI and PPI inflation data. These will be important reports as many market players have used the seasonal base pricing variable as a reason why the last two months’ inflation data was a bit hotter than usual. This week will be critical to watch because if the inflation data comes in cooler than anticipated, the 10-year yield should fall, and with spreads getting better, that will be a plus for mortgage rates.
Source: housingwire.com
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After watching mortgage rates hit two-decade highs and inventory plummet last year, many hopeful homebuyers are eager to get off the sidelines and into a home.
While 2024 is expected to be a better year for the housing market in many respects, a lot of buyers are still going to struggle to find affordability. If you’re planning to buy a house this year, here’s what you need to know about housing market predictions in 2024, and how you can prepare.
Experts generally expect home prices to increase in 2024.
Low home inventory is a chronic problem in the US. This has generally kept home prices up, even as mortgage rates peaked near 8% and homebuying demand plummeted last year. Demand is expected to increase this year, so even if home prices were to drop in 2024, they likely wouldn’t fall enough to significantly improve affordability on their own.
Here’s where we’ll probably find more affordability in 2024: mortgage rates. Though they’re still relatively high, experts predict we’ll see mortgage rates go down in 2024. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is generally expected to end up near 6% by the end of the year.
Whether mortgage rates actually trend down in 2024, and by how much, depends in part on the path the Federal Reserve takes in its fight against inflation.
The Fed has indicated that it may start cutting the federal funds rate this year, which would remove a lot of upward pressure off of mortgage rates and allow them to fall more substantially. But inflation has remained a bit higher than expected in recent months, so we might have to wait longer for a Fed rate cut. This means mortgage rates might not fall in time for the peak homebuying season.
Because home prices have increased so dramatically in recent years, doomsayers believe that the housing market is in a bubble, and it’s only a matter of time before it bursts and the market crashes. But it’s actually pretty unlikely that will happen.
One of the main reasons we’re unlikely to see the housing market crash in 2024 has to do with housing inventory. The US simply does not have enough homes to meet demand, which is keeping prices steady.
Of course, no one has a crystal ball. If demand were to plummet, home prices could start falling. A severe recession could cause this to happen, for example. But even with a recession, it’s not a given that the housing market would crash as a result.
The fact is, it’s hard to predict a housing market crash. Right now, the conditions aren’t right for one — even though demand is low, supply remains even lower. And demand is expected to improve this year, while supply will likely remain a chronic problem for years to come.
If you’re hoping to buy a house this year, you’ll want to start planning now. This year is likely to be better for buyers than 2023 was in many ways, but it’s also going to be more challenging when it comes to prices and competition.
Lower mortgage rates will undoubtedly improve affordability for borrowers, but with that will come increased demand. This will keep home prices high and likely push them up even further. Finding a home in your price range may become even trickier, and you may need to make a lot of offers on homes before you get one accepted.
Here’s what you should be doing now to prepare for homeownership in 2024.
Because home prices are likely to remain high, you’ll want to take advantage of lower mortgage rates by making sure you get the lowest rate you can.
One of the faster methods to get your credit score up is to lower your credit utilization. This will also decrease your debt-to-income ratio, which is another factor mortgage lenders look at when considering what rate to give you.
J.R. Russell, head of direct to consumer mortgage lending at Citi Mortgages, says homebuyers should consider paying off credit card balances to improve their scores ahead of the 2024 homebuying season.
“If you’re trying to pay off or pay down some credit cards, start with the cards or credit lines with the highest interest rates first,” Russell says. “Then, pay off the balances that are smallest. The good news is that if you do this, you’ll improve your debt load and your credit score.”
The key to affording homeownership for many buyers in 2024 will be utilizing mortgages geared toward first-time homebuyers and combining them with grants or other forms of down payment assistance.
“If you’re not sure that your down payment will be sufficient, take time to understand all of the available products that you may be eligible for through the FHA or VA, your bank, or other local institutions,” Russell says. “These programs may grant you access to down payment assistance and low-to-moderate income programs, among other game-changing resources.”
Conventional loans allow down payments as low as 3%, while FHA loans allow 3.5% down payments. USDA and VA loans allow no down payment.
Look into lenders that offer special mortgage programs that come with additional assistance. Rocket Mortgage, for example, offers a ONE+ mortgage that allows borrowers to put down just 1%, with the lender providing a 2% grant.
Bank of America mortgages, another popular lender for first-time buyers, offers a couple of different forms of down payment assistance.
There probably won’t be a single “best time” to buy in 2024, because that depends on each buyer’s priorities — so it’s important that you figure out yours.
If getting the lowest rate possible is most important to you, you’ll want to wait until later this year to buy, possibly until the second half of 2024. But if you’re looking to avoid competition, buying within the next few months might be a better bet. Plus, you could always plan to refinance later on as rates drop.
“If rates do start to moderate and the market does seem to become more favorable to buying in 2024, it will likely stay this way for a while,” Russell says. “If that’s the case, I encourage you to take your time! Don’t put pressure on yourself to make any potentially hasty decisions on what may be your biggest asset and the largest financial decision of your life.”
Though it’s still a while away, forecasts generally expect mortgage rates to continue falling in 2025. If you don’t feel ready to buy by the time the 2024 buying season rolls around, there’s nothing wrong with waiting a bit to continue saving and working on your credit.
Whether you’re padding your mortgage down payment savings or contributing to your emergency fund, tucking away some extra cash now is vital if you plan on buying a home soon.
When you buy a house, you’ll need enough cash to cover both your down payment and closing costs, which can amount to between 3% and 6% of the loan amount. While many mortgage programs allow low down payments, the more you can put down, the better your interest rate will likely be. Plus, offers with larger down payments are often more attractive to home sellers, giving you a competitive edge in what will likely be a tough market.
Homeownership is also often more expensive than many first-time buyers realize, especially in the first year. Having some extra money set aside for unexpected costs will help ensure you don’t go into debt when your first big housing expense comes along.
Experts expect mortgage rates to drop in 2024, and 30-year fixed rates could end the year closer to 6%.
There probably won’t be a housing recession in 2024 based on current expectations, as limited inventory is likely to push prices up further. Expect to see higher prices, lower mortgage rates, and more buyers in 2024.
In general, 2024 should be a better year to buy a house compared to 2023, but it will still be tough due to increased competition and higher prices.
Source: businessinsider.com
In addition, we can see the price reductions ticking up each week. They aren’t at a scary level, people are buying homes, but it’s notably softer on pricing than last year at this time.
Mortgage rates seem to have finally settled down. The Fed met last week and we escaped dramatic changes in the markets. I was worried that we might come out of that meeting with a spike in mortgage rates but that didn’t materialize so we got lucky.
I like to point out that consumers are more sensitive to changes in mortgage rates than to the absolute levels, and since rates are now basically unchanged for the month, just easing down from the early March peak of 7.2%, sellers and buyers are tip-toeing back into the market.
As a result, we continue to see the signals that home sales volume will grow this year and prices will be mostly flat. The price appreciation signals last year were stronger than they are now.
The available inventory of unsold homes continued to climb last week.
Inventory will cross over 2020 levels by July. We’ll finish the year with over 600,000 homes on the market unless rates reverse and fall quickly.
Three takeaways from the inventory data now:
1. Growing inventory this year means more sales can happen. More sellers means more sales will happen.
2. Year-over-year inventory growth points to weaker demand and is one of the signals that home prices won’t climb this year. We currently have 24% more homes on the market than a year ago.
3. The longer mortgage rates stay higher, the more inventory will grow closer to the old levels. If you’re a homebuyer and you’re waiting for mortgage rates to fall before you swoop in for a deal, recognize that even slightly lower rates will spur demand more than supply so inventory will start falling and selection and competition will be worse.
Each week this spring we’ve been tracking the new listings volume. Last week we saw just over 60,000 new listings added to the inventory with another 17,000 new listings / immediate sales. In total, new listings data is 14% more than last year. April is looking good for home sales growth.
A year with 5.5 to 6 million home sales would need probably 80,000 new listings of single family homes right now. And we have 60,000, so there simply aren’t enough homes for sale to hit the big sales numbers, but the lid is being lifted. We can see obvious growth.
As supply increases, the rate of sales is starting to pick up compared to a year ago. We can measure home sales in real time by tracking all the homes that moved to contract pending status this week. These “pendings” aren’t yet sold. They’ll spend 30 or 40 days in contract and the sales will mostly close in April or May.
There were 67,000 new contracts for single family homes this week compared to only 62,000 in the same week last year. There were another 15,000 condos into contract. This annualizes to only 4.3 million home sales, without any seasonal adjustment. So obviously the rate of sales is still pretty slow, which makes sense given the high mortgage rates. But the sales rate is climbing. The rate of new contracts is 8% more than last year but still 15% fewer than March of 2022, when buyers were desperately trying to get their deals done as rates were rising.
It looks like April will see decent home sales growth over 2023 but won’t overtake 2022 sales volumes until after July of this year. July of 2022 was when supply and demand fell precipitously. If mortgage rates stay stabilized in the upper 6s, these trends look durable to me.
Last week, all the current price measures actually had pretty healthy gains. When we look at all the homes on the market, the median price is now $439,000. That is up a fraction this week and just a little bit higher than last year. Home prices climb this time of year before peaking in June as the best inventory, the most new listings, and the best demand is in the market. This week’s price increase is right in the normal range for the end of March.
The price of new listings took a healthy jump this week, up 1% to $424,900. That’s nearly 4% higher than a year ago. It’s also to be expected that the price of new listings each week in the spring lurch higher. There is no signal of big home price changes in this leading indicator, but it’s nice that this move is up.
Four years ago in March 2022, we were at the start of the pandemic lockdown and we could see the price of the new listings drop very quickly. That price decline only last for three weeks though. And the price of the new listings was one of the important factors that showed us very quickly how there would be no housing crash as a result of the crisis.
The price of the homes going into contract across the country are holding up but also not accelerating. The median price of the new contracts this week was $389,900 — that’s up a fraction from last week and 4% more than a year ago. Home prices peaked in May of 2022 and didn’t surpass that during last year’s spring season. I expect we’ll hit new all-time highs for home prices in the next month or so, assuming these current trends hold.
Most of the signals in the data last week were pretty optimistic. If there is one factor to temper than optimism, it’s the price reductions. The percent of homes on the market with price cuts from their original list price ticked up to 31.4% this week. There are more homes on the market now that have felt the need to reduce asking price than there were a year ago. Last year’s market strength in Q1 and Q2 led to 5% home-price growth for the full year of 2023. We have less strength in pricing now than we did last year.
While price reductions are in the “normal” range, they are higher now than any March in many years. There are more sellers now who have reduced the asking prices on their homes than in any March in over a decade. This last decade was a very strong one for homebuyer demand, so we haven’t seen a “normal” market in a very long time.
This is a signal to pay attention to. It’s hard to see how home prices will grow nationally this year under these circumstances. We can see buyers in the market, but there is no signal of them pushing home prices higher. Sellers who over-price are being forced to reduce.
In March 2022, there were still very few overall homes with price reductions, but that was changing rapidly. The slope started to climb very quickly, especially in April and May of that year. The number peaked in November 2022 with 43% of the homes on the market needing price cuts. That November peak corresponded to home sales price declines four to six months later. That’s why this data is worth watching so closely: These price cuts tell us about demand now, which turns into sales several months down the road.
We can see homebuyers are very sensitive to mortgage rate moves. We can see the price reductions data adjust exactly in the moments that mortgage rates jump higher.
Source: housingwire.com
If you regularly drive someone else’s car, you might wonder about buying insurance for it. But when it comes to purchasing an auto insurance policy, the car owner is the one in the driver’s seat. Here’s what to know about insuring a car not in your name.
No, you can’t insure a car not in your name. In most cases, only a person listed on the car’s registration can get insurance for it.
There may be an exception made if you can prove you have “insurable interest” in the vehicle. To have insurable interest in something, you must have a financial stake in it, meaning that the loss of the car would have a financial impact on you. If you’re not the owner, that can be hard to prove. If you believe you have a legitimate need for someone else’s car, you can try to prove you have insurable interest to an insurer to try to get them to cover you.
If you’re unable to prove you have insurable interest in the vehicle you’re driving, you could:
If you and the vehicle owner live at the same address, get an auto insurance policy that covers you both. If you already have auto insurance, add the car’s owner to your existing policy; or have the car’s owner add you to their existing policy, if they have one.
Buy non-owner car insurance so you have liability coverage in case you cause an accident that results in damages to others while driving someone else’s car.
How to be insured while driving |
|
---|---|
Drive a parent’s car while living at home |
You should be added as a driver on your parent’s policy. |
Regularly drive a roommate’s car |
You should be added as a driver on your roommate’s policy. |
Occasionally borrow the car of a friend or relative who doesn’t live with you |
The owner’s policy will likely cover you. A standard auto insurance policy usually covers drivers who occasionally use a car with the owner’s permission. |
Drive a parent’s car while away from home at school |
A parent should list you on their policy and tell the insurance company where you’re going to school. |
Drive a parent’s car once you’ve moved out |
You’ll need to buy your own policy. Insuring a car at one address when it’s kept at another is fraud. Car insurance rates are based in part on where a car is kept. Also, insurance companies won’t allow you to stay on someone else’s policy and drive their car when you don’t live with them. Your parent could add you to the car title, or sell or transfer the car to you. Then you could register the car and buy car insurance using your own address. |
Regularly drive the car of a friend or relative who does not live with you |
If you routinely use somebody else’s car, discuss having your name added to the vehicle title so you can buy coverage for it. This is particularly important if this is a car that is no longer being used by the owner and is therefore not insured by them. |
If you frequently drive cars that are not yours, you might consider purchasing non-owner car insurance.
If you occasionally drive somebody’s car with permission, the owner’s policy will typically cover you in an accident, up to the policy’s limits. However, any costs related to the accident that go beyond those limits would fall on you. Plus, if the car owner’s insurer decides you drive the car too often and should have been added to the policy, they might refuse to cover the accident. This is why non-owner insurance can be a smart purchase if you regularly drive someone else’s vehicle.
Non-owner car insurance provides liability insurance for drivers who don’t have a car of their own. A non-owner policy’s liability insurance pays for damage you cause to others and their property in an accident where you’re at fault, if the costs from an accident exceed the car owner’s liability limits. Liability insurance can also protect you financially if you’re sued because of a crash.
Source: nerdwallet.com
Kelly and I are expecting a baby in June, so we recently enrolled in a series of birthing classes. The curriculum is eye-opening, especially for an ignorant guy who’s never been forced to empathize with a pregnant woman before. Shame on me!
In Monday’s class, one quote caught my eye:
“You can’t control the waves, but you can learn to surf.”
Jon Kabat-Zinn**
**Kabat-Zinn, coincidentally, is the son-in-law of Howard Zinn – a big friend of The Best Interest. The elder Zinn famously wrote, “If you don’t know history, it’s as if you were born yesterday.” He didn’t intend for this to be an investing quote. But it is. For that matter, the same applies to his son-in-law’s quote above!
The surfing quote is perfect for childbirth. So much of the birthing process is innate, instinctual, or subconscious. The body does what it does. It’s easy, therefore, to think that mothers are along for the ride, victims of their own bodies, like a listless boat being pushed to and fro in the crashing waves.
But the birthing class teacher is trying to empower her students to realize that they can “surf.” They can’t fight nature’s momentum outright, but they can go with the flow, find smooth pathways, avoid getting overwhelmed by waves crashing over them, etc. There are physical and mental exercises that can help mothers get more prepared for the fantastic challenge of labor and delivery.
Do these exercises actually work? I assume so, but I’m not sure. I’m just a dude. You’ll have to take our teacher’s word for it.
What I do know, though, is Kabat-Zinn’s quote applies perfectly to long-term investing:
“You can’t control the waves, but you can learn to surf.”
Jon Kabat-Zinn
The stock market (or any investing market) is an ocean with millions of waves moving to and fro. Sometimes those waves combine into overwhelming tsunamis and cavernous trenches. When the inexperienced or unknowledgeable investor gets swept away, it can be a life-changing negative experience.
You can’t control the market, but you can learn to use it to your advantage. To wit, here are some of my favorite investing quote that strike at this chord:
“Reversion to the mean is the iron rule of investing.” –John Bogle
Waves build up…then crash. It’s normal, natural, expected.
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” –Ben Graham
Those “votes” (aka opinions) can cause large waves. But in the long run, gravity (aka true fact) pulls those waves back to earth and wins out.
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” –Peter Lynch
Waves will happen. You know it. I know it. Get used to it. If you think you can perfectly time the waves and avoid all turbulence, you’ll do more harm than good.
“The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge.“ –John Tudor Jones
Well, “trading” is hard and not something I recommend. But being “thirsty” for information and knowledge is a terrific recommendation! Learn to surf!
I’ve spent much time these past 10 years “learning to surf,” taking lessons from those far more experienced than me. Like Zinn, “If you don’t know history, it’s as if you were born yesterday.”
My articles and podcasts serve as little “surfing lessons” to you all. Thank you for enjoying them!
And no! This isn’t my first article about the oceans, seas, waves, etc
Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed this article, join 8000+ subscribers who read my 2-minute weekly email, where I send you links to the smartest financial content I find online every week.
-Jesse
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Source: bestinterest.blog
President Joe Biden has proposed an annual tax credit that would give Americans $400 a month for the next two years to put towards their mortgages.
Addressing the affordability crisis in the housing market in his State of the Union address on Thursday, Biden said: “I know the cost of housing is so important to you. Inflation keeps coming down, and mortgage rates will come down as well.
“But I’m not waiting. I want to provide an annual tax credit that will give Americans $400 a month for the next two years as mortgage rates come down, to put towards their mortgage when they buy their first home, or trade up for a little more space.”
Home prices skyrocketed during the pandemic, driven by relatively low mortgage rates, high demand and low inventory. At their peak, the median listed price for a home in the U.S. reached $465,000 in June 2022, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED).
While the housing market experienced a price correction between late summer 2022 and spring 2023, prices remain historically high, propped up by lingering low supply. In June 2023, the median listed price for a home in the U.S. was $448,000. As of January 2024, this was $409,500, according to data from FRED.
While home prices have stayed high for the past three years, a rise in mortgage rates driven by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive hike rate campaign last year has led to many aspiring homebuyers being completely squeezed out of the market. In December last year, the reserve said that it would have stopped rising rates, but mortgages are yet to significantly come down.
High mortgage rates, together with the historic shortage of homes in the U.S.—due to the fact that the country hasn’t built enough homes to meet demand since the housing crash of 2008—have contributed to the current affordability crisis.
In late 2023, J.P. Morgan said that, based on then-current trends, housing affordability could be restored in 3.5 years. Newsweek contacted J.P. Morgan for comment by email on Friday morning.
Biden is now calling on Congress to provide a one-year tax credit of up to $10,000 to middle-class families who sell their starter home—a home below the median home price of the area where it is located—to another owner or occupant. The White House said that this proposal could help nearly 3 million American families.
On Friday, Biden’s announcement on the tax credit was met with a standing ovation and roaring applause by Democratic lawmakers, while about half of the House stayed seated.
The president also mentioned other measures to address the housing affordability crisis in the U.S. These included down-payment assistance for first-generation homeowners, tax credit to build more housing, and lowering costs by building and preserving millions of homes.
“My administration is also eliminating title insurance on federally backed mortgages,” Biden told lawmakers on Friday.
“When you refinance your home, you can save $1,000 or more as a consequence. We’re cracking down on big landlords who break antitrust laws by price-fixing and driving up rents. We’ve cut red tape, so builders can get federal financing,” the president said among the cheering of some lawmakers.
Update, 3/8/24, 8 a.m. ET: The headline on this article was updated.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
Mutual funds and index funds are similar in many ways, but there are some key differences that investors need to understand to effectively implement them into an investment strategy. Those differences might include investing style, associated fees and taxes, and how they work.
The choice between an index fund and an actively managed mutual fund can be a hard one, especially for investors who are unsure of the distinction. The differences between index funds and other mutual funds are actually few — but may be important, depending on the investor.
Index funds and mutual funds are similar in many ways, but they do differ in some others, such as how they work, associated costs, and investment style.
💡 Quick Tip: How to manage potential risk factors in a self-directed investment account? Doing your research and employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging and diversification may help mitigate financial risk when trading stocks.
Index funds are a type of mutual fund, interestingly enough. Index funds are distinguished by their investing approach: Index funds invest in an index, and only change the securities they hold when the index changes, or to realign their holdings to better match the index they invest in.
Rather than rely on a portfolio manager’s instincts and experience, an index fund tracks a particular index. There are benchmark indexes across all of the different asset classes, including stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. As an example, the S&P 500® Index tracks the stocks of 500 of the leading companies in the United States.
An index fund aims to mirror the performance of a given benchmark index by investing in the same companies with similar weights. With these funds, it’s not about beating the market, it’s about tracking it, and as such, index funds typically follow a passive investment strategy, known as a buy-and-hold strategy.
A mutual fund is an investment that holds a collection — or portfolio — of securities, such as stocks and bonds. The “mutual” part of the name has to do with the structure of the fund, in that all of its investors mutually combine their funds in this one shared portfolio.
Mutual funds are also called ’40 Act funds, as they were created in 1940 by an act of Congress that was designed to correct some of the investment abuses that led to the Stock Market Crash of 1929. It created a regulatory framework for offering and maintaining mutual funds, including requirements for filings, service charges, financial disclosures, and the fiduciary duties of investment companies.
To get people to invest, the portfolio managers of a given mutual fund offer a unique investment perspective or strategy. That could mean investing in tech stocks, or only investing in the fund manager’s five best ideas, or investing in a few thousand stocks at once, or only in gold-mining stocks, and so on.
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There may be different associated costs with index funds and mutual funds as well.
Mutual-fund managers generally charge investors a management fee, which comes from the assets of the fund. Those fees vary widely, but an active manager will generally charge more, as they have to pay the salaries of analysts, researchers, and the stock pickers themselves. Passive managers of index funds, on the other hand, simply have to pay to license the use of an index.
An actively-managed mutual fund may charge an expense ratio (which includes the management fee) of 0.5% to 0.75%, and sometimes as high as 1.5%. But for index funds, that expense ratio is typically much lower — often around 0.2%, and as low as 0.02% for some funds.
The two also differ on a basic level in that index funds are a passive investing vehicle and mutual funds are typically actively managed. That means that investors who want to take a hands-off approach may find index funds a more suitable choice, whereas investors who want a guiding hand in their portfolio may be more attracted to mutual funds.
Mutual Funds vs. Index Funds: Key Differences |
|
---|---|
Mutual Funds | Index Funds |
Overseen by a fund manager | Track a market index |
May have higher associated costs | Typically has lower associated costs |
Active investing | Passive investing |
There’s no telling whether an index or mutual fund is better for you — it’ll depend on specific factors relevant to your specific situation and goals.
When deciding how to invest, everyone has their own unique approach. If an investor believes in the expertise and human touch of a fund manager or team of professionals, then an actively managed fund like a mutual fund may be the right fit. While no one beats the market every year, some funds can potentially outperform the broader market for long stretches.
But for those individuals who want to invest in the markets and not think about it, then the broad exposure — and lower fees — offered by index funds may make more sense. Investing in index funds tends to work best when you hold your money in the funds for a longer period of time, or use a dollar-cost-average strategy, where you invest consistently over time to take advantage of both high and low points.
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Index funds and mutual funds are similar investment vehicles, but there are some key differences which include how they’re managed, costs associated with them, and how they function at a granular level.
The choice between index funds and other mutual funds is one with decades of debate behind it. For individuals who prefer the expertise of a hands-on professional or team buying and selling assets within the fund, a mutual fund may be preferred. For investors who’d rather their fund passively track an index — without worrying about “beating the market” — an index fund might be the way to go.
Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).
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Actively-managed funds, such as mutual funds, tend to underperform the market as a whole over time. That’s to say that most of the time, a broad index fund may be more likely to outperform a mutual fund.
The types of funds that investors prefer to invest in depends completely on their own financial situation and investment goals. But some investors may prefer index funds over mutual funds due to their hands-off, passive approach and lower associated costs.
Mutual funds may be riskier than index funds, but it depends on the specific funds being compared — mutual funds do tend to be more expensive than index funds, and tend to underperform the market at large, too.
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Source: sofi.com