Mohtashami kicked off the sessions by talking about the differences between the current mortgage rate environment and some of what was seen in the early days of the financial crisis of the 2000s, saying that Americans generally are in a much better position than they were back then.
The Fed has recently indicated that it is not likely to reduce interest rates anytime soon due to economic indicators, and Mohtashami revived a 2022 prediction about what it will take to get the Fed to “break” on rates.
“In 2022, I brought up the premise that the Fed will not pivot until the labor market breaks,” he said. “So, if all of you are looking for a sustained lower move in mortgage rates, that’s what you’re going to see.”
While a lot of the oxygen in the discussion is taken up by inflation, Mohtashami asserts that’s not what the Fed is primarily focused on.
“What the Fed wants to see is the labor market get very soft and to the point that it’s breaking, and then they will find all the confidence in the world to do rate cuts and talk about making sure we have a soft landing,” he said.
Reading the data, he said, might tell a different story about the situation as opposed to strictly paying attention to what Fed officials are saying.
Illuminating data points include wage growth, job openings, the number of people quitting to find higher-paying work, and jobless claims on a weekly or monthly basis. These help observers to monitor changes in the labor market similarly to the Fed, he explained.
From there — and when combined with employment in construction and housing permit data — the thinking around rates will become clearer.
“If the labor market gets softer and the Fed starts getting a little bit more dovish, then not only can the spreads get better, but if the 10-year yield goes down, there’s your 6% [or] sub-6% mortgage rates,” he said. “But this means the labor market has to break. So, we’re all focusing on inflation, but not what really matters.”
Simonsen: More data, less ‘vibes’
A lot of the conversation in the housing market can be focused on “vibes,” or general feelings about the way things are going. Simonsen explained to attendees at The Gathering that focusing instead on real-time data is key to having accurate, predictive indicators about where the market is at and where it will go.
Simonsen began his presentation by talking about an early Altos interaction with both Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers. In 2007, right around the time he started Altos Research, he was attending a conference where representatives of both companies were speaking. After they finished speaking, he aimed to pitch both companies on why they might need the kind of data Altos specializes in.
He recalled his pitch.
“I’m Mike Simonsen, my company is Altos Research, and we track every home for sale in the country every week,” he recalled saying. “We check all the pricing, all the supply and demand, and all the changes in that data, and we give that to you because traditional housing data is months behind the curve before you see what’s happening.”
The Lehman representative turned him down flatly, saying, “We’ve got so much more data than you can possibly imagine. We’re making so much money. Don’t even bother,” Simonsen recalled.
The Goldman representative was more open to hearing what he had to say, and 12 weeks later engaged with Altos as a client. A year later, Lehman Brothers went out of business, Simonsen explained.
Simonsen asserted that monitoring changing data points on a daily and weekly basis — including inventory levels, new and pending home sales, and home price data and signals —can help to more efficiently track the impact of mortgage rates.
“I believe that our obligation is to communicate with the data for everybody in the cycle, from the biggest players down to every single homebuyer and seller,” Simonsen said.
He began by looking at fresh inventory data.
“The biggest takeaway from when we’re looking at the inventory numbers is rising rates constitute rising inventory — or put another way, demand slows, inventory grows,” he said. “And that’s actually counterintuitive for a lot of folks who are just casually looking at the data.
“They think, ‘Mortgage rates are higher, nobody’s going to sell, therefore inventory is going to fall when rates fall again. Then we’ll finally get some inventory.’ But the data shows that actually, the opposite is true.”
Multiple years of higher rates will be needed to return inventory to pre-pandemic levels, but inventory growth is rising across the country, particularly in states like Florida and Texas, he explained.
More home sellers are also starting to enter the market. Last year, rising rates depressed seller participation, but higher rates are starting to be seen as more of a norm. A general sense of predictability will allow more sellers to enter the market, he said.
Prices are likely to remain stable due to higher rates, he added.
“More data, less vibes,” Simonsen said.
Fairweather: Less affordability
Daryl Fairweather of Redfin primarily spoke about housing demand; generational participation in the market; the impact of climate events and natural disasters on homebuying activity; and the flexibility that renters might experience, particularly as weather events become more prominent nationwide.
“People are spending more and more of their money on housing, and housing isn’t getting any more affordable,” she said. “We still have this underlying shortage of homes.”
But the presentation was primarily designed to be forward looking, and in that respect, interest rates and inflation are elevated, but the economy is growing. Demographics are also changing, with millennials being the largest generation and Gen Z being smaller but increasingly influential in the economy.
Changing preferences and economic realities are also disrupting long-standing paradigms related to housing in the U.S., she said.
“It used to be that homeownership was the American dream, and now it’s more the American pipe dream,” Fairweather said. “People just feel like it’s a ‘pie in the sky’ thing for them to achieve because housing affordability keeps getting worse and worse.”
Climate is also a very real issue having an impact on the housing market, Fairweather said.
“For a long time I would talk about a changing climate and people would say ‘That’s a problem for the future,’” she said. “But now, we’re seeing insurance costs going up and people are deciding where to live based on the climate. It’s becoming a more and more important issue in the housing market.”
Fairweather shared that Redfin experimented in 2020 to analyze the impacts that climate change can have on homebuying behavior over a three-month period in which users were divided into two pools: one that showed them a view of flood risk and one that did not.
“In the control view, there is no flood risk, and then in the treatment view, you could see flood risk for every single home that’s on Redfin,” she said. “The people that were shown flood risk — if they were previously looking at severely or extremely risky homes for flood risk — they went on to buy homes that had half as much risk when they saw that information,” she said.
This communicates a potential value-add opportunity for mortgage professionals to offer more robust climate information, in addition to where interest rates are projected to go or demographic information.
“[That can help] inform them about how to make the best homebuying decision,” Fairweather said.
Buying your first home can be tedious and overwhelming.
While it’s exciting to visit properties and daydream about your dream home, getting over the financing hurdles is another story. But don’t fret.
This comprehensive guide for first-time homebuyers will walk you through the entire process from start to finish.
Benefits of Being a First-Time Homebuyer
As a first-time homebuyer, you may feel a mix of excitement and apprehension. While the home buying process can seem overwhelming, it’s important to recognize the numerous benefits that come with this milestone.
Financial Assistance
First-time homebuyers have access to several financial assistance programs that can make homeownership more affordable. These include down payment assistance programs, low-interest mortgage loans, and grants specifically designed for first-time buyers. Some of these programs are offered by state and local governments, while others are provided by non-profit organizations or private lenders.
Lower Down Payments
Several loan programs offer lower down payment requirements for first-time homebuyers. The FHA loan, for example, requires as little as 3.5% down if your credit score is 580 or higher. The USDA and VA loans even offer zero down payment options in some cases.
Access to Educational Resources
There’s a lot to learn when you’re buying a home for the first time, but fortunately, there are plenty of resources available. Many organizations offer homebuyer education courses that can help you understand the process and make informed decisions. Some lenders and assistance programs require you to take one of these courses, but even if it’s not mandatory, it can still be a valuable resource.
Before Starting Your Home Search
Check Your Credit
Not only will your credit score play a considerable factor in whether you’re approved for a mortgage, but it will also determine your interest rate.
A small increase or decrease in interest rates may not seem like a big deal. However, mortgage loans are for a hefty sum and for an extended period of time. So, a slight increase or decrease equates to thousands of dollars more spent or saved over the life of the loan.
To have the best chance of being approved for a home loan, you should aim for a credit score of at least 620. It’s possible to get approved for select home loan programs with a score as low as 580, but you may have fewer lenders to choose from.
Run the Numbers
It’s tempting for first-time homebuyers to start searching for homes when they know their credit score is up to par. But that’s probably not a good move until you determine how much home you can afford. Yes, the loan officer will give you a figure when you obtain a preapproval, but that amount isn’t always indicative of what you can afford.
Why so? Well, they focus on the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio to get an idea of a loan amount you qualify for. According to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, lenders prefer a DTI ratio of 43% or lower with your new mortgage payment. To illustrate:
CURRENT MONTHLY DEBT
GROSS INCOME
DEBT-TO-INCOME RATIO
MAXIMUM MORTGAGE PAYMENT (USING 43% RECOMMENDATION)
$1,000
$4,000
25%
$720
$2,000
$6,000
33%
$580
$3,000
$10,000
30%
$1,300
Note: Debt-to-Income Ratio = Aggregate Amount of Monthly Debt / Gross Income
The problem is that it fails to consider any expenses unrelated to debt. And if you have hefty insurance, childcare, or even grocery bills, that could be a major concern.
So, your best bet is to look at your current budget and come up with a realistic figure for your new mortgage payment. But don’t forget to keep the recommended DTI ratio in mind.
Explore Mortgage Options
There are several mortgage options on the market for first-time homebuyers, but the most prevalent are:
Conventional Loans
A conventional mortgage is a type of home loan that is not insured or guaranteed by the government. It’s typically offered by a private lender, such as a bank or credit union, and is the most common type of mortgage used to purchase a home.
Conventional mortgages typically require a down payment of at least 3% of the purchase price of the home. Borrowers typically must have a credit score of 620 or higher and a DTI ratio of 36% or lower to qualify. If you have bad credit or are unable to make a large down payment may have a harder time qualifying for a conventional mortgage.
If the loan amount is over $726,200, it becomes a jumbo loan and requires a higher down payment.
FHA Loans
An FHA loan is a type of home loan insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), a government agency within the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
FHA loans are designed to make it easier for people to buy homes, especially for first-time homebuyers. They offer lower down payment requirements and more flexible credit guidelines than conventional mortgages.
The minimum credit score required for an FHA loan is 500. If your credit score is between 500 -579, the down payment is 10%. However, if you have a credit score of 580 or above, the down payment is 3.5% of the purchase price.
VA Loans
VA Loans are insured by the Department of Veterans Affairs. They don’t require a down payment and are easier to qualify for than conventional loan products. However, you must be an active-duty member of the armed forces. Surviving spouses also qualify.
USDA Loans
A USDA loan is a type of mortgage offered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to low- and moderate-income borrowers who are looking to buy a home in a rural or suburban area.
See also: 14 First-Time Home Buyer Grants and Programs
Check Out Our Top Picks for 2024:
Best Mortgage Lenders
Most mortgages have a 30 or 15-year term. The latter will cost you more per month, but you’ll save a load of cash on interest.
You can also choose from a fixed or adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). Fixed-rate mortgages have the same interest rate for the duration of the loan. But ARMs typically start with a lower interest rate for a set amount of time. In fact, they usually span from five to ten years and then adjust depending on the housing market.
Some first-time homebuyers choose ARMs over fixed-rate mortgages because it gives them the option to make a smaller monthly payment in the first few years. It could also mean that you can qualify for a more expensive home. But, be careful not to get too overextended, as erratic market behavior could cause the rate to skyrocket.
Get Preapproved
This is one of the more time-consuming parts of the entire mortgage process for a first-time home buyer. The good news is you don’t have to settle for the first offer that comes your way out of fear that your credit score will take a hit.
“FICO Scores ignore [mortgage] inquiries made in the 30 days prior to scoring,” according to myFICO. So, you won’t be penalized for multiple inquiries.
So, start by researching mortgage lenders that you may be interested in working with. You could also solicit the help of a mortgage broker if you’re strapped for time or want someone to do the legwork for you.
Once you’ve settled on a few lenders, be prepared to provide the following to get preapproved:
Financial statements to confirm your assets, including retirement accounts and real estate
Recent bank statements
Last two pay stubs
W-2s from the last two years
They will also pull your credit report and credit scores. If you qualify, the mortgage lender will then provide you with a preapproval letter, valid for a certain time period, that specifies how much you’re eligible for.
Save Up for a Down Payment and Closing Costs
During the preapproval process, the lender should have discussed loan options that could be a good fit for you. They should also have communicated how much you will need for a down payment and closing costs.
While some sellers may be willing to cover closing costs, be prepared to provide earnest money to secure your offer. And you may need a large down payment if you’re taking out a jumbo loan, or don’t qualify for the FHA or VA loan program. If that’s the case, now’s the time to figure out a plan for it.
If the seller is not paying closing costs, expect to pay between 2% and 5% of the sales price. And if a hefty down payment isn’t required, it’s not a bad idea to bring money to the table. Doing so allows you to reduce the Loan-to-Value, which positions you as less risky to the lender.
You may also be able to avoid private mortgage insurance (PMI), which is required until you reach 20% in equity, and possibly qualify for a reduced interest rate.
How to Find the Perfect Home
Go Home Shopping
All squared away with a preapproval and planned to save up the cash you need? Now, it’s time to go home shopping. But before you go, you have to decide if you want to enlist the assistance of a real estate agent.
It’s possible to find a slew of listings within your price range on the web with minimal effort. However, real estate agents have access to a system that could expand your reach. Even better, they could be integral in helping you choose a home that’s a good buy and negotiating the final purchase price.
And the seller’s agent pays their commission, so no need to worry about forking over extra cash. Just be sure to hire a real estate professional that is seasoned and reputable.
Now for the fun part: home shopping. Be careful not to judge a home solely by its appearance. Some other important factors to keep in mind:
Taxes: are the property taxes affordable or beyond what you can comfortably afford? (You can roll property taxes and homeowners insurance into an escrow account, but they can easily make or break your budget if the figures are steep).
Location: is the home in an area that has historically held its value? Is the location optimal for your commute to and from work?
Crime: is it a high crime area or is it relatively safe?
Condition: how old is the property? Does it need tons of repairs, or is it close to being move in ready?
Floor plan: is the floor plan feasible or ideal for your situation? Would it be appealing to other buyers if you had to sell?
School district: how are the schools? Have they received a good rating, or do they struggle to stay afloat?
All of these factors can have an effect on the value of the property over time.
Submit an Offer
You’ve found the perfect home, and you’re ready to sign on the dotted. Before you can finalize the paperwork and move in, there’s one more important step. And that’s making the offer. Even if the sales price seems fair, you may need to make an offer that’s higher or lower to snag the home.
Why so? Well, there could be a slight or drastic bidding war going on, and the only way for you to win is to beat out the competition. Or maybe your real estate agent did some research and determined the asking price was a bit high based on similar properties in the area or the home’s current condition.
Either way, you want to submit an offer that stands out and gets accepted. Your real estate agent will be able to do so on your behalf. But if you don’t have a real estate agent, check out these letters from Trulia to get you started.
The Mortgage Process
Even after your offer is accepted, there’s still more work to do. You’re not done just yet! It’s time to move on to the mortgage process.
Remember that preapproval letter? The lender will make sure all the information you initially provided is accurate through a process called underwriting.
Depending on how long it’s been since you were preapproved, you may be asked to provide updated bank statements or pay stubs.
The faster you submit the requested information, the quicker you’ll get a response. So, don’t drag your feet if you want a closing date that’s sooner than later.
Home Inspections and Appraisals
Before you close on the home, you will need to have a home inspection and appraisal complete.
The home inspection shouldn’t cost you more than $500. It will give you an overall assessment of the property and identify any potential issues.
The appraisal also plays an integral role as it will give you a solid idea of the home’s fair market value. The lender will mandate it, but it’s not a bad idea to get an independent appraisal done to serve as a second opinion.
An inspection and appraisal may help you decide if you should lower your offer or walk away from the property.
Purchase Homeowners Insurance
Your mortgage lender will require that you take out homeowners insurance. So, you want to start shopping around for quotes and select a policy prior to closing.
Close on Your Loan
At last! You’ve reached the finish line, and it’s time to close on your loan. During the closing, expect to:
Sign a load of paperwork.
Provide any amounts owed for the down payment.
Pay closing costs, which could include property tax obligations, premiums for homeowner’s insurance and association dues, title insurance, and any other costs associated with finalizing the loan.
Pay discount points or prepaid interest that can reduce the interest rate.
But before you show up at closing, it’s a good idea to speak with the lender, so you’ll know what to expect. You can also request a copy of the final closing document, or Closing Disclosure, to see a detailed breakdown of expenses.
A Few More Tips
Here are a few more suggestions for first time home buyers to help you get approved for your first loan:
Refrain from applying for new credit before you close. This could throw off your DTI ratio, lower your credit score, and ultimately prevent you from closing on the loan.
State and local programs may be available to assist with down payments. If you’re low on funds, be sure to explore options that may be available to you.
Several builders offer buyer incentives, like allowances for upgrades and closing costs. So if you haven’t considered new construction, it may not be such a bad idea to take a look if the price points are within your budget.
Should You Rent, Instead?
Perhaps you’ve done a little legwork, ran the numbers, and are on the fence about home buying. You will typically find that it’s cheaper to make monthly mortgage payments than to pay rent.
You can also take advantage of tax deductions and build up equity as you’re making monthly payments. The equity can be borrowed against for a loan or put some extra money in your pocket should you decide to sell before the repayment period ends.
However, renting a home gives you the flexibility to move to a new location if the home isn’t quite what you expected, don’t like the neighborhood, or want something more affordable.
Furthermore, renting allows you to pass the costs of maintaining the home on to the owner. But as a homeowner, you’ll be responsible for costs associated with maintenance and repairs.
Another reason why some choose to rent over buying is the upfront costs. Most landlords require a security deposit. However, it could be substantially lower than the money you may have to bring to the table for the down payment and closing costs.
Ultimately, you have to decide which is the better fit: investing in an asset that could build wealth or continuing to pay rent until you feel the time is right. There is no right or wrong answer; it just depends on your personal preference and financial situation.
Bottom Line
By taking the time to learn about the home buying process, you’ll be well-prepared and save yourself time and headaches. Best of all, you’ll increase your chances of landing your dream home with the most competitive mortgage product on the market.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the process for buying a home?
The process for buying a home typically involves the following steps:
Determine your budget and get preapproved for a mortgage.
Find a real estate agent and start looking for homes.
Make an offer on a home and negotiate the terms.
Get a home inspection and address any issues that are found.
Get a mortgage and close on the home.
How much house can I afford?
When determining how much house you can afford, there are several factors to take into account. You should consider your income, expenses, down payment, credit score, and mortgage type before making a decision.
A larger down payment can help you get a lower mortgage rate, and a higher credit score can qualify you for better rates and loan terms. Shopping around for mortgage rates and considering different types of mortgages, such as fixed-rate or adjustable-rate, can also help you find the best deal.
Keep in mind that owning a home involves more than just the monthly payments. You will also need to factor in property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs. You should create a budget that includes all of these costs and leaves room for unexpected expenses.
How much money do I need for a down payment?
The amount of money you need for a down payment will depend on the type of mortgage you get and the price of the home you are buying.
Some mortgage programs, such as FHA loans, allow for down payments as low as 3.5%, while others may require a higher down payment. It’s a good idea to speak with a mortgage lender to determine how much you will need.
Can I buy a house if I have a low credit score?
It’s possible to buy a house with a low credit score. However, it may be more difficult to get approved for a mortgage, and you may have to pay a higher interest rate. Before applying for a mortgage, work on improving your credit scores, as this will help you qualify for a better loan and save you money over time.
How much will closing costs be?
Closing costs are fees that are paid at the closing of a real estate transaction. These costs can vary widely and may include things like mortgage origination fees, title insurance, and appraisal fees. On average, closing costs can range from 2% to 5% of the purchase price of the home.
What is a mortgage preapproval?
A mortgage preapproval is a letter from a lender that indicates how much you are qualified to borrow for a mortgage. The preapproval letter is based on a review of your financial information, including your credit score, monthly income, and debts. A mortgage preapproval can help you understand how much you can afford to borrow and can make you a more competitive buyer in the real estate market.
What is a mortgage rate?
A mortgage rate is the interest rate that you will pay on your mortgage. The mortgage rate will determine the amount of your monthly payments and the overall cost of your loan. Interest rates can vary depending on the type of mortgage you get and your credit scores.
What is PMI?
PMI, or private mortgage insurance, is insurance that is required by lenders for certain types of mortgages when the borrower has less than a 20% down payment. PMI protects the lender in the event that the borrower defaults on the mortgage. The cost of PMI is typically added to the borrower’s monthly mortgage payment.
It’s the season of new beginnings and fresh starts: Spring cleaning, the outdoors, weddings, gardening and… real estate.
But in a housing market marked by high mortgage rates, low housing inventory and steep home prices, we still haven’t seen a typical spring homebuying season.
Though mortgage application volume is higher than it was last fall when home loan rates peaked above 8%, it’s still 10% lower than it was last year.
As temperatures go up in 2024, experts anticipate a somewhat healthier spring market, with inventory and home listings growing. So far, however, it hasn’t been such a great kickoff: In April, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage pushed back above 7% in response to hot inflation data.
But context is critical, according to Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire. “Last year was the all-time low in new listings data,” he said.
Here’s a look at how the spring market is shaping up and what buyers can do to navigate it successfully.
Why is spring the season to buy and sell a home?
There are several reasons behind the rush of home listings and sales in the springtime and early summer months, according to Jeb Smith, realtor and CNET Money Expert Review Board member.
Warmer weather: Better temperatures and more sunlight make it easier for buyers to go out, tour and inspect properties compared with the winter months.
Timing with academic calendar: Families start the buying process so they can be settled into a new home before the start of their child’s school year in the fall.
Greater inventory: With sellers motivated to sell due to an influx of motivated buyers, increased supply hits the market.
Favorable to buyers and sellers: Buyers know there will be more choices available to them, and sellers take advantage of demand to list their homes at higher prices.
Why is today’s spring market different?
Beyond seasonal trends, the housing market is highly sensitive to broader economic shifts. Over the past two years, high inflation and surging mortgage rates have done significant damage to affordability for the average homebuyer.
From May 2019 to May 2023, average mortgage rates increased by more than 2%, causing a roughly 25% drop in home sales, according to data from Redfin. Homeowners who are currently “locked in” with low home loan rates have less incentive to sell, which keeps prospective buyers “locked out.”
Meanwhile, many prospective buyers are priced out of the market. According to Zillow, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical US home has almost doubled since January 2020. The average income needed to afford a home is now more than $106,500 — an 80% increase over four years — while the typical US household earns around $81,000 each year.
High mortgage rates also negatively impact existing housing inventory, said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. Because most sellers are also buyers, homeowners would rather hold onto their sub-5% mortgage rates than take out a new home loan at a 7% rate.
This “rate-lock” scenario — with sellers reluctant to give up their existing mortgage — is starting to loosen, according to Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans. Homeowners have accrued substantial equity over the last period and are more motivated to cash in on it. “Any who were waiting for rates to fall have likely given up,” Divounguy said.
Who has the upper hand this season? Buyers or sellers?
Shrinking housing supply over the past several years has given sellers the upper hand. After all, you can’t buy what’s not for sale.
“In most areas of the country, we still have more buyer demand than inventory, which is typically indicative of a seller’s market,” Smith said. Because of that imbalance, many housing markets continue to be very competitive with multiple offers on homes, he said.
Yet in some areas where supply has returned to pre-pandemic levels, buyers have more of the upper hand. Divounguy said that in markets where new construction has taken off and existing inventory has recovered, price growth is slower, giving buyers better traction in negotiations.
Generally speaking, however, housing supply is still too low. “Even with home sales still trending at record-low levels, we have too many people chasing too few homes,” Mohtashami said.
In a buyer’s market, there’s a surplus of homes for sale and not enough buyers. Buyers have more options and leverage to negotiate lower prices or other concessions from sellers.
In a seller’s market, demand for homes exceeds supply. With more buyers ready to make offers on fewer homes, sellers are at an advantage and asking prices are generally higher.
If mortgage rates were to drop significantly, we’d likely see a substantial uptick in buyer and seller activity. However, 6% mortgage rates are still several months away, keeping a lid on the number of new listings this spring.
At the same time, homeseekers who need to relocate — or those getting tired of waiting on the sidelines — are starting to adjust to the new normal. Many families can’t put their lives on hold forever, and another era of sub-3% mortgage rates isn’t on the horizon.
“Buyers seem to now be accepting this higher-rate environment and are getting back into the market,” said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage. Many of them know they have the option to refinance to a lower rate when mortgage rates eventually come down, she said.
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Here’s all of the excitement headed to your inbox.
How does low inventory affect home prices?
In February, new listings increased 14.8% from the prior year, the largest annual gain since May 2021, according to Redfin. Currently, there are about 25% more available homes for sale compared with 2023, adding up to around 100,000 extra single-family homes on the market, Smith said. But again, context is critical.
“Even with this increase, the number of homes for sale is still much lower than what we saw before the pandemic hit, indicating we’re not yet back to a ‘normal’ market,” Smith said.
With buyer demand outweighing existing supply, home prices continue to go up. In February, the median sale price was $412,778, which is 6.6% higher than the previous year.
Should you sit it out this homebuying season?
Ultimately, the right time to buy a house depends on your finances, goals and timeline. The housing market has its patterns and fluctuations, but that doesn’t mean it has to dictate what works for you.
If you find a home that meets your needs and aligns with your budget, go for it. You can always refinance to a lower mortgage rate later.
But if you decide to delay buying a house, you can take steps toward having a more solid foundation as a future homeowner. By waiting, you’re giving yourself time to save for a bigger down payment, improve your credit and be in an overall better position to purchase a house, even if it’s not for several spring seasons down the road.
Daily average mortgage rates jumped to their highest level since last November after last week’s disappointing inflation report
SEATTLE, April 18, 2024–(BUSINESS WIRE)–(NASDAQ: RDFN) —The median U.S. home-sale price increased 5% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending April 14, bringing it to $380,250—just $3,095 shy of June 2022’s all-time high. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
The average daily mortgage rate this week surpassed 7.4%, the highest level since last November, after a hotter-than-expected inflation report and the Fed’s confirmation that interest-rate cuts will be delayed. The combination of high mortgage rates and prices have brought homebuyers’ median monthly housing payment to a record $2,775, up 11% year over year.
There are signals that buyers are out there touring homes despite rising rates. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 5% week over week, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—is near its highest level in seven months. Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead, said some house hunters are hoping to buy now because they’re concerned rates could rise more, and others have grown accustomed to elevated rates and pushed down their home-price budget accordingly.
“Home sales are slower than usual, but there are still people buying and selling because if not now, when?” said Connie Durnal, a Redfin Premier agent in Dallas. “I’ve had a few prospective buyers touring homes for the last several years, since mortgage rates started going up, and they wish they would have bought last year because prices and rates are even higher now. My advice to them: If you can afford to and you find a house you love, buy now. There’s no guarantee that rates will come down soon.”
For more of Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate
7.41% (April 17)
Up from 7% one month earlier; highest level since November 2023
Increased 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending April 12)
Down 10%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)
Up 8% from a month earlier (as of week ending April 14)
Down 11%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity
Up 33% from the start of the year (as of April 14)
At this time last year, it was up 23% from the start of 2023
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”
Unchanged from a month earlier (as of April 14)
Down 17%
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending April 14, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending April 14, 2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$380,250
4.7%
Median asking price
$413,225
6.4%
Biggest increase since Oct. 2022; all-time high
Median monthly mortgage payment
$2,775 at a 6.88% mortgage rate
10.6%
All-time high
Pending sales
86,086
-2.3%
New listings
93,332
10.8%
Active listings
832,748
9.6%
Months of supply
3.3 months
+0.4 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
Share of homes off market in two weeks
42.6%
Down from 44%
Median days on market
35
-1 day
Share of homes sold above list price
29.2%
Essentially unchanged
Share of homes with a price drop
5.9%
+1.6 pts.
Average sale-to-list price ratio
99.2%
+0.2 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending April 14, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases
Notes
Median sale price
Anaheim, CA (24.8%)
Providence, RI (14.6%)
Nassau County, NY (14.3%)
West Palm Beach, FL (13.5%)
New Brunswick, NJ (13.1%)
San Antonio, TX (-1%)
Declined in just 1 metro
Pending sales
San Jose, CA (25.6%)
San Francisco (11.2%)
Oakland, CA (7.1%)
Columbus, OH (6.7%)
Seattle (6.4%)
Nassau County, NY (-14.9%)
Atlanta (-13.6%)
Houston (-11.6%)
Riverside, CA (-10.8%)
Fort Lauderdale, FL (-10%)
Increased in 14 metros
New listings
San Jose, CA (46.6%)
Sacramento, CA (27.6%)
Phoenix (27.4%)
Jacksonville, FL (27.2%)
Dallas (22.9%)
Newark, NJ (-12.4%)
Providence, RI (-6.3%)
Milwaukee (-4.6%)
Chicago (-4.5%)
Detroit (-3.1%)
Declined in 9 metros
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-prices-mortgage-rates-increase
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country’s #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we’ve saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin’s press release distribution list, email [email protected]. To view Redfin’s press center, click here.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240418348073/en/
Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) has submitted a letter to President Joe Biden, urging him to decrease federal spending and to take action on affordable housing issues.
“A particularly acute concern to Nevadans is the housing market, which is reeling from the combined effects of high inflation and interest rates,” Lombardo said in the letter dated April 11. “Nevadans need more accessible housing, but the rising costs of materials and labor and high interest rates are creating a barrier for Nevadans to achieve their dream of owning a home.”
Lombardo cited data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis that compares the median home price in Nevada at the time Biden took office ($342,995) to the figure as of January 2024 ($460,000), and illustrated increases in monthly payment obligations for Federal Housing Administration (FHA) borrowers.
“Utilizing a 3.5% down payment through a [FHA] loan (principal/interest only) in January 2021, the monthly payment on a median home would have been $1,363.00 at the market interest rate of 2.82%,” Gov. Lombardo said in his letter. “Today, that same median home would be $2,808.00 per month at the market interest rate of 6.51% — which is over double the monthly cost to Nevada families.”
Combating the increase in housing costs requires “swift action,” and Lombardo noted that in a prior letter to the president he requested that Biden “make more federal lands available for housing development, so that Nevada can increase its inventory and address shortages to ultimately drive down costs,” he said.
But Biden has recently given voice to concerns he and others have about the national housing market, including in states like Nevada. Last month, Biden gave a speech in Las Vegas where he reiterated elements of his housing plan that were first detailed in the March 7 State of the Union address.
These include a first-time homebuyer tax credit that would offer qualifying beneficiaries $400 a month for two years, adding that this would serve to have the effect of lowering their mortgage rate by roughly 1.5%.
While not specifically mentioning a provision to turn over federal lands for housing development, Biden did say that the White House had “cut red tape so more builders can get federal financing for their new projects” in a move designed to assist states’ congressional delegations to take action on housing issues.
“A record 1.7 million new housing units are under construction nationwide right now because of it. In fact, today, my administration reported that single-family housing starts are at the highest level they’ve been in nearly two years, and my new plan would create 2 million affordable homes — including tens of thousands right here in Nevada,” Biden said.
Housing has become a key issue for many voters headed into the fall election cycle, where both houses of Congress and the White House are up for grabs. The Biden administration first telegraphed housing as a key issue in a briefing prior to the State of the Union speech, and Republicans have largely focused on inflation’s impact on the housing market to rebut the president’s proposals.
While there are some indications of bipartisan cooperation on housing issues despite fundamental disagreements on other hot-button issues, Congress is historically divided. The leadership in the House of Representatives is facing a new, looming challenge, compounding issues that stem from the narrow divide between the parties in the chamber.
Editor’s Note: Parts of this story were auto-populated using data from Curinos, a mortgage research firm that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our methodology here.
Mortgage rates have largely held steady after a stronger-than-forecasted jobs report on Friday. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 7.24% APR today, down -0.02 percentage points from last week, according to data from Curinos analyzed by MarketWatch Guides.
In its monthly report on job growth, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced an employment gain of 303,000 new jobs for March with the unemployment rate decreasing slightly from 3.9% to 3.8%. These “eye-popping” numbers could mean the Federal Reserve will hold off even longer on lowering interest rates, said Steve Wyett, chief investment strategist at BOK Financial in an email sent to MarketWatch.
While positive for the overall economy, this does not seem to be welcome news for the housing market. Joel Kan, the Mortgage Banker Association’s deputy chief economist, said in a report on Wednesday that today’s relatively high mortgage rates have continued to slow down home buying. Refinance rates are also 5% lower than last year.
Here are today’s average mortgage rates:
30-year fixed mortgage rate: 7.24%
15-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.58%
5/6 ARM mortgage rate: 7.03%
Jumbo mortgage rate: 7.20%
Current Mortgage Rates
Product
Rate
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
7.24%
7.26%
-0.02
15-Year Fixed Rate
6.58%
6.52%
+0.06
5/6 ARM
7.03%
7.01%
+0.02
7/6 ARM
7.24%
7.18%
+0.06
10/6 ARM
7.28%
7.22%
+0.06
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
7.20%
7.14%
+0.06
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
6.91%
6.97%
-0.06
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
6.96%
7.03%
-0.07
Disclaimer: The rates above are based on data from Curinos, LLC. All rate data is accurate as of Monday, April 08, 2024. Actual rates may vary.
>> View historical mortgage rate trends
Mortgage Rates for Home Purchase
30-year fixed-rate mortgages are down, -0.02
The average 30-year fixed-mortgage rate is 7.24%. Since the same time last week, the rate is down, changing -0.02 percentage points.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $681.50 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. You’re paying less compared to last week when the average rate was 7.26%.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages are up, +0.06
The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed-mortgage is 6.58%, an increase of+0.06 percentage points compared to last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed-mortgage at a rate of 6.58% will cost approximately $875.51 per $100,000 borrowed. With the rate of 6.52% last week, you would’ve paid $872.21 per month.
5/6 adjustable-rate mortgages are up, +0.02
The average rate on a 5/6 adjustable rate mortgage is 7.03%, an increase of+0.02 percentage points over the last seven days.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, commonly referred to as ARMs, are mortgages with a fixed interest rate for a set period of time followed by a rate that adjusts on a regular basis. With a 5/6 ARM, the rate is fixed for the first 5 years and then adjusts every six months over the next 25 years.
Monthly payments on a 5/6 ARM at a rate of 7.03% will cost approximately $667.32 per $100,000 borrowed over the first 5 years of the loan.
Jumbo loan interest rates are up, +0.06
The average jumbo mortgage rate today is 7.20%, an increase of+0.06 percentage points over the past week.
Jumbo loans are mortgages that exceed loan limits set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and funding criteria of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This generally means that the amount of money borrowed is higher than $726,200.
Product
Monthly P&I per $100,000
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
$681.50
$682.85
-$1.35
15-Year Fixed Rate
$875.51
$872.21
+$3.30
5/6 ARM
$667.32
$665.97
+$1.35
7/6 ARM
$681.50
$677.43
+$4.07
10/6 ARM
$684.21
$680.14
+$4.07
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
$678.79
$674.73
+$4.06
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
$659.27
$663.29
-$4.02
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
$662.62
$667.32
-$4.70
Note: Monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages are shown for the first five, seven and 10 years of the loan, respectively.
Factors That Affect Your Mortgage Rate
Mortgage rates change frequently based on the economic environment. Inflation, the federal funds rate, housing market conditions and other factors all play into how rates move from week-to-week and month-to-month.
But outside of macroeconomic trends, several other factors specific to the borrower will affect the mortgage interest rate. They include:
Financial situation: Mortgage lenders use past financial decisions of borrowers as a way to evaluate the risk of loaning money.
Loan amount and structure: The amount of money that bank or mortgage lender loans and its structure (including both the term and whether its a fixed-rate or adjustable-rate).
Location: Mortgage rates vary by where you are buying a home. Areas with more lenders, and thus more competition, may have lower rates. Foreclosure laws can also impact a lender’s risk, affecting rates.
Whether borrowers are first-time homebuyers: Oftentimes first-time homebuyer programs will offer new homeowners lower rates.
Lenders: Banks, credit unions and online lenders all may offer slightly different rates depending on their internal determination.
How To Shop for the Best Mortgage Rate
Comparison shopping for a mortgage can be overwhelming, but it’s shown to be worth the effort. Homeowners may be able to save between $600 and $1,200 annually by shopping around for the best rate, researchers found in a recent study by Freddie Mac. That’s why we put together steps on how to shop for the best mortgage rate.
1. Check credit scores and credit reports
A borrower’s credit situation will likely determine the type of mortgage they can pursue, as well as their rate. Conventional loans are typically only offered to borrowers with a credit score of 620 or higher, while FHA loans may be the best option for borrowers with a FICO score between 500 and 619. Additionally, individuals with higher credit scores are more likely to be offered a lower mortgage interest rate.
Mortgage lenders often review scores from the three major credit bureaus: Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. By viewing your scores ahead of lenders considering you for a loan, you can check for errors and even work to improve your score by paying down balances and limiting new credit cards and loans.
2. Know the options
There are four standard mortgage programs: conventional, FHA, VA and USDA. To get the best mortgage rate and increase your odds of approval, it’s important for potential borrowers to do their research and apply for the mortgage program that best fits their financial situation.
The table below describes each program, highlighting minimum credit score and down payment requirements.
Though conventional mortgages are most common, borrowers will also need to consider their repayment plan and term. Rates can be either fixed or adjustable and terms can range from 10 to 30 years, though most homeowners opt for a 15- or 30-year mortgage.
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3. Compare quotes across multiple lenders
Shopping around for a mortgage goes beyond comparing rates online. We recommend reaching out to lenders directly to see the “real” rate as figures listed online may not be representative of a borrower’s particular situation. While most experts recommend getting quotes from three to five lenders, there is no limit on the number of mortgage companies you can apply with. In many cases, lenders will allow borrowers to prequalify for a mortgage and receive a tentative loan offer with no impact to their credit score.
After gathering your loan documents – including proof of income, assets and credit – borrowers may also apply for pre-approval. Pre-approval will let them know where they stand with lenders and may also improve negotiating power with home sellers.
4. Review loan estimates
To fully understand which lender is offering the cheapest loan overall, take a look at the loan estimate provided by each lender. A loan estimate will list not only the mortgage rate, but also a borrower’s annual percentage rate (APR), which includes the interest rate and other lender fees such as closing costs and discount points.
By comparing loan estimates across lenders, borrowers can see the full breakdown of their possible costs. One lender may offer lower interest rates, but higher fees and vice versa. Looking at the loan’s APR can give you a good apples-to-apples comparison between lenders that takes into account both rates and fees.
5. Consider negotiating with lenders on rates
Mortgage lenders want to do business. This means that borrowers may use competing offers as leverage to adjust fees and interest rates. Many lenders may not lower their offered rate by much, but even a few basis points may save borrowers more than they might think in the long run. For instance, the difference between 6.8% and 7.0% on a 30-year, fixed-rate $100,000 mortgage is roughly $5,000 over the life of the loan.
Expert Forecasts for Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have cooled significantly over the past several months. After the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 8% last October, it ended 2023 closer to 7%. In fact, the average for Q4 2023 was 7.3%.
Analysts with Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) both project that rates will fall going into 2024 and throughout next year.
Fannie Mae economists expect rates to drop more quickly, falling below 6% by Q4 2024. Meanwhile, the MBA’s forecast for Q4 2024 is 6.1% and 5.9% for Q1 2025.
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More Mortgage Resources
Methodology
Every weekday, MarketWatch Guides provides readers with the latest rates on 11 different types of mortgages. Data for these daily averages comes from Curinos, LLC, a leading provider of mortgage research that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our comprehensive methodology here. Editor’s Note: Before making significant financial decisions, consider reviewing your options with someone you trust, such as a financial adviser, credit counselor or financial professional, since every person’s situation and needs are different.
While more stable over the past nine months, the economy was highly volatile from 2020 through the first half of 2023.
After the pandemic hit, the Fed dropped the fed funds rate to zero and demand surged in the housing market causing home values to skyrocket. Then, inflation began to run away and the Fed hiked rates 11 times. Meanwhile, the average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate went from 2.8% in late 2021 up to a 22-year high of 7.79% in October 2023.
Since December, mortgage rates have been more stable, fluctuating between 6.5 and 7%. However, many are now wondering if rumored Fed cuts will change that.
“As the market gains more certainty and as inflation curbs, it is very likely that there will be rate cuts this year,” says Scott Haymore, senior vice president and head of mortgage capital markets and product management at TD Bank. “Currently, Fed Funds futures contracts have three rate cuts built in starting in the second half of this year,” he says.
If Fed rate cuts do happen as many expect, how far can you expect mortgage rates to drop, if at all? We asked some experts for their rate predictions.
See how low of a mortgage interest rate you could secure here now.
How far will mortgage rates fall when the Fed cuts rates?
Here’s where three experts predict mortgage rates are heading:
Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: “Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%,” says Haymore. “By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower.”
Hold steady through 2024: Afifa Saburi, a capital markets analyst for Veterans United Home Loans, doesn’t think rates are going to drop much this year. “Mortgage rates won’t fall much from where they are today because the rate cuts that the Fed has penciled in are already priced in by the markets. This means that almost all of the rate relief that we would see from rate cuts is already here,” Saburi explains.
Hold steady through mid-2025: Jeremy Schachter, branch manager at Fairway Independent Mortgage Company, says he expects rates will stay in the higher 6% range and won’t fall much in 2024 or even early to mid-2025. “With goals of the Federal Reserve to get inflation around the 2% mark, I don’t expect the Feds to lower rates until September or later in 2024,” Schachter says. “Unfortunately, we still have to have a bit more pain in the economy with higher unemployment to see the Federal Reserve lower rates.”
The bottom line? While rates may drop modestly, we likely won’t be getting back to the 3 to 5% rates that were the norm from 2010 to 2020 in the upcoming year.
Learn more about today’s mortgage rates online now.
Should you wait to buy a home?
If you find a great home and the financing fits into your budget, experts say you typically don’t want to wait.
“The best advice is still: When you find a home you love inside your budget, buy it. Mortgage rates are unpredictable but, right now, home values are not,” says Dan Green, chief executive officer at Homebuyer.com. If rates do drop, you can always refinance to secure a lower rate but you won’t always be able to buy a particular home.
You should also consider the opportunity cost of waiting. “On average home appreciation is between 4 and 5% each year. If you decide to hold off until 2025, how much will that home be worth vs. purchasing it now?” asks Schachter. He explains that if you decide to wait and time the market, a home that is worth $500,000 now could have appreciated $25,000 in 2025 (a 5% increase). “The adage, buy the home, date the rate is a perfect example of this scenario,” Schachter added.
A drop in rates also often causes more buyers to enter the market which drives up home prices. “I believe we will see rate cuts come in the fall if at all this year. Along with that, you will see buyers come back to the fray and it will make competition even harder in a housing shortage-dominated market. Yes, rates will be lower but prices may be much higher,” predicts Ralph DiBugnara, president of Home Qualified and senior vice president at Cardinal Financial.
Buying a home can be exciting, exhausting and, no matter how smoothly the process may go, one of the most stressful things you can do in life. Not having enough money to adequately finance a purchase makes it all the more daunting. Fortunately, there are first-time homebuyer programs available in every state, making it easier for many people to access the resources they need to buy their new home, and to feel more secure through the whole process.
Keep in mind that first-time homebuyers don’t actually have to be buying their first home. A first-time homebuyer is defined as anyone who hasn’t had an ownership interest in a primary home in the past three years.
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) also includes in its list of qualified homebuyers:
• A single parent who has only owned a home with a partner while married
• A displaced homemaker who has only owned a home with a spouse
• Someone who has owned a principal residence not permanently affixed to a permanent foundation
• Someone who has only owned a property that wasn’t in compliance with state, local, or model building codes
Here are the homebuyer programs that qualified first-time buyers have available to them in the Northeast:
Maine
Thinking of buying a home in the land of lobster and lighthouses? You’ll want to learn about the market and assess your financial situation before you start searching for a home mortgage loan. (A guide to the different types of mortgage loans can help.)
The scoop on the Main market: Prices in the Pine Tree State were up 5.7% in February 2024 when compared to the prior year, with homes selling for a median of $360,200, according to Redfin. The three most competitive cities for homebuyers were Standish, South Berwich, and Gray.
💡 Learn about Maine first-time homebuyer programs
New Hampshire
The housing market in the Granite State is hot. From February 2023 to February 2024, home prices rose 12.5% to an average sale price of $447,400, according to Redfin. And 41.8% of the homes sold above their list price. Still, there are good opportunities for the first-time buyer in the state, and there are first-time homebuyer assistance programs to help you reach your homeowning goal.
💡 Learn about New Hampshire first-time homebuyer programs
Vermont
The Green Mountain State is paradise for outdoorsy types with forests, lakes, and mountains. No wonder then that the housing market has heated up: The number of homes sold increased 14.2% between February 2023 and 2024. Prices were up 6.5% as well, according to Redfin.
Homebuyers may need help to afford a home with the median price here hitting $361,300. Fortunately, the state has several programs to offer.
💡 Learn about Vermont first-time homebuyer programs
Massachusetts
Glorious New England scenery, a rich history, and diverse cultural and educational opportunities are just some of the things Massachusetts has to offer residents. It’s no wonder that home prices here outpace the national average, or that they are rising. Prices in Massachusetts were up 9.9% in the year ending February 2024, Redfin reports. The median sale price in the state is now $576,900.
At the same time, the median number of days a home stays on the market has dropped by 5 year-over-year, an indicator that the market is warming. Still, there are plenty of opportunities for the first-time homebuyer in Massachusetts.
💡 Learn about Massachusetts first-time homebuyer programs
Rhode Island
This small state is big on charm: Rhode Island’s miles of coastline offer beautiful beaches and picturesque inlets, and you’ll also find dynamic cities and rural small towns here. There’s a lot for the first-time homebuyer in Rhode Island to get excited about. But prices here are well above the national average of $342,941. The average property value is $438,711, up 8.3% year over year, according to Zillow. Wondering what a down payment would look like on a given property price? Use a mortgage down payment calculator to do the math.
💡 Learn about Rhode Island first-time homebuyer programs
Connecticut
You’re looking at a competitive market in the Constitution State: In February 2024, home prices in Connecticut were up 13.2% year-over-year. The median price of a Nutmeg State home is $375,300, according to Redfin, and the number of days a property stays on the market is declining. Fortunately you can still find affordable homes in Torrington and New Britain, among other affordable places in Connecticut.
💡 Learn about Connecticut first-time homebuyer programs
New York
The housing market in New York state can be challenging, especially for first-time buyers. Home prices in the Empire State in January 2024 were up 6.3% over the prior year, with a median sale price of $518,800. The number of days on the market dropped as well. A stunning 37% of homes sold above their listing price.
💡 Learn about New York first-time homebuyer programs
New Jersey
The Garden State saw record real estate sales in some areas in recent years as city dwellers fled to the suburbs. In the year ending February 2024, home prices in New Jersey were up 14.5% over the prior year, and the median sales price was $479,100. The median days on the market dropped 15 year-over-year to 46. Buyers in New Jersey need to prepare themselves to compete in this market.
💡 Learn about New Jersey first-time homebuyer programs
Pennsylvania
Thinking of buying a home in Pennsylvania? Prices rose 6.6% from January 2023 to January 2024, to a median of $264,700, Redfin reported. It’s a seller’s market here, so you may have to compete to get the home you want, especially in cities like New Castle (home prices were up more than 31% in a year) and Mechanicsburg (up 55.5%). Harrisburg and Lancaster ranked as some of the best affordable places to live in Pennsylvania.
💡 Learn about Pennsylvania first-time homebuyer programs
The Takeaway
Qualifying first-time homebuyers have many options available to them in the Northeast, including down payment assistance. If you’re looking to buy your first home and aren’t sure how to get started, researching homebuyer programs is a great place to start. Once you know what kind of assistance you may qualify for, it’s a good idea to estimate just how much house you can really afford using a home affordability calculator.
Looking for an affordable option for a home mortgage loan? SoFi can help: We offer low down payments (as little as 3% – 5%*) with our competitive and flexible home mortgage loans. Plus, applying is extra convenient: It’s online, with access to one-on-one help.
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The Community Home Lenders of America (CHLA) this week submitted a letter to the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) that urges the agency to “provide comparable down payment treatment for FHA borrowers, regardless of whether or not the seller is willing to pay the home buyer broker commission,” according to an announcement by the organization.
The letter is being sent in response to a series of real estate commission lawsuits and the recent $418 million settlement by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), with the association also agreeing to abolish the “Participation Rule” requiring sell-side agents to make an offer of compensation to buyer brokers.
CHLA contends that the settlement is “likely to result in a shifting from the home seller to the home buyer of the financial responsibility to pay buyer Realtor commissions,” and cites three key concerns in its letter addressed to FHA Commissioner Julia Gordon.
The first is a contention that large swaths of first-time homebuyers, who already face major challenges to enter the housing market, will not be able to meet higher down payment thresholds necessary to pay the buyer’s agent commission when using FHA financing.
“We believe that FHA borrowers should not have to make a much higher down payment merely because the seller is (arbitrarily) unwilling to fund the buyer agent commission,” the letter stated.
The CHLA also raises concerns about preexisting biases that may impact borrowers using FHA financing, a bias they contend has been demonstrated in the past.
“Existing (and well documented) home seller biases against buyers with FHA loans will be exacerbated, because of concerns over the buyer’s ability to make higher down payments,” the letter stated.
The third highlighted concern stems from the potential for inflated sales prices based on commission impacts, with CHLA contending that sellers “may use their leverage over the higher down payment levels to extract a higher sales price in exchange for agreeing to pay the buyer agent commission.”
The letter provides a series of prototype loan scenarios that could spin out of the settlement, illustrating CHLA’s arguments. Among the scenarios is one that CHLA hopes will become standard practice, in which “every home seller will be willing to pay the buyer agent commission, as a courtesy and without extracting a higher price in exchange for doing so,” the letter stated. “However, we do not have confidence that this will be the case.”
FHA borrowers are particularly vulnerable to sellers who may try to leverage a higher sales price, since “paying cash for their agent’s commission may not be economically feasible [for FHA buyers],” the letter read. “Having spent several years building up cash reserves for the down payment, the homebuyer will thus have to wait a few years longer to accumulate the cash necessary to fund this amount.”
Late last month, FHA addressed a common question the agency had received from interested stakeholders, who asked how the proposed settlement agreement will affect the treatment of seller-paid buyer broker fees in transactions that use FHA-insured mortgage financing.
“Under existing FHA policy, if sellers continue to pay buyer-side real estate agent commissions and fees as a manner of state and local law or custom, and if the commissions and fees are reasonable in amount, existing policy would not treat those payments as interested party contributions provided all other requirements are met,” the agency said in an informational notice distributed to professionals via email and published online.
Editor’s note: An FHA statement on a different matter was erroneously included in a previous version of this article.
Consumers may not know it, but financial institutions often rely on “bundled” credit reports to make more fully informed decisions before lending an individual money.
That process is known as a tri-merge credit report (also known as a three-in-one credit report.) The merged report can give the lender a more complete picture of an applicant’s financial situation, since each credit report may contain slightly different information.
You can’t request a merged credit report on your own but you can ask a lender to share their tri-merged report with you. Read on to learn more about what tri-merged credit reports are and how they can impact your chances of getting a loan.
What Is a Tri-Merge Credit Report?
A tri-merge credit report simply combines three credit reports from the three largest credit reporting bureaus — Experian, Equifax, and Transunion — and consolidates them into one credit report for creditors and lenders. They are most commonly used in the mortgage lending sector where more information is required to properly assess larger loans.
Creditors often rely on three-in-one credit reports because they want a thorough review of an applicant’s credit history, an outcome a lender may not get with input from just one credit reporting agency. 💡 Quick Tip: Need help covering the cost of a wedding, honeymoon, or new baby? A SoFi personal loan can help you fund major life events — without the high interest rates of credit cards.
How Do Merged Credit Scores Work?
A tri-merge credit report gives those lenders what they need – a comprehensive overview of a credit applicant using information from three credit reports, instead of one or two credit reports.
By combining all three credit scoring formulas and outcomes into a single credit report, creditors can get an expanded and more complete look at a credit applicant’s financial history (including payments and credit usage), based on the information included in the tri-merge credit report.
Recommended: Common Credit Report Errors and How to Dispute Them
Why Do You Have More Than One Credit Score?
Each credit scoring company has its own formula for calculating credit scores and one model may place more importance on one factor, such as payment history, while another may not. Also, different types of loans have different scoring methods.
The most commonly used credit scoring model is the FICO® Score, a base score that has a range of 300 (lowest score) to 850 (highest score). But within the FICO models, there are industry-specific ranges.
• FICO® Auto Score Range is 250 to 900
• FICO® Bankcard Score Range is 250 to 900
• FICO® Mortgage Score Range is 300 to 850
VantageScore is another credit scoring model used by all three major credit reporting bureaus.
FICO Score and VantageScore base their calculations on different aspects of a person’s financial history.
• FICO uses factors that are in a credit report, such as payment history of credit accounts, how much debt a person has, how long credit accounts have been open, how often new credit inquiries happen and how often new credit accounts are opened, and the mix of credit account types.
• Vantage uses the same criteria as FICO, but places different levels of importance on each. Vantage also looks at additional factors that might not appear on a person’s credit report, such as rent and utility payments. Using factors such as these makes it possible for people who don’t have much of a credit history to have a credit score and be able to access consumer credit.
Lenders use credit scores and other information in the loan approval process.
What Does a Tri-Merge Credit Report Look Like?
Tri-merge credit reports offer creditors the same look and feel as a standard consumer credit report, with a few differences.
For starters, the third-party provider creating the three-in-one credit report culls the credit reports from each of the three primary credit-reporting firms (Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion) and pulls the most pertinent information for use in the tri-merge credit report.
In its final form, the tri-merge credit report includes the following sections.
• An upfront summary that provides information on the credit applicant in capsule form.
• A full section on the credit applicant’s financial accounts, focusing on larger accounts like mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, and any types of personal loans.
• Data on the applicant’s credit payments history, any open accounts, any history of late or no credit payments, any tax liens or bankruptcies, and the applicant’s credit utilization ratio (i.e., the applicant’s outstanding credit balance divided by the total amount of revolving credit the applicant has available).
A tri-merge credit report may also include a specific credit report from any of the three major credit reporting agencies, based on the specific credit analysis needs of the mortgage lender who uses the three-in-one report.
Why Do Personal Loan Lenders Look at Your Tri-Merge Credit Report?
Tri-merge credit reports are more commonly used in mortgage lending than personal loan lending. But if you’re applying for a large personal loan — some lenders offer personal loans up to $100,000 — the lender may look at a tri-merge credit report to get a comprehensive picture of your creditworthiness. The tri-merge credit report will include any current or past personal loans and your payment history on those. The lender will use that information to determine approval for the loan you’re applying for. 💡 Quick Tip: Choosing a personal loan with a fixed interest rate makes payments easy to track and gives you a target payoff date to work toward.
How Does a Tri-Merge Credit Report Affect Your Loan Application?
Different lenders approach the risk of lending money with different tolerance levels, just as they each have different credit score requirements. A loan applicant whose credit reports don’t include late payments and unmanageable debt loads will likely be approved for a loan with favorable terms and lower interest rates.
Alternatively, a loan applicant whose credit report shows a large amount of existing debt and a history of late or missed payments may be offered a high interest rate and less favorable terms.
Because lenders that use a tri-merge credit report to assess an applicant’s creditworthiness are looking at a comprehensive picture, it’s in the best interest of the applicant to clean up their credit reports from each of the three major credit bureaus before they begin applying for a loan.
Recommended: Typical Personal Loan Requirements Needed for Approval
Is a Tri-Merge Credit Report a Hard Inquiry?
Any official lender review of a tri-merge credit report will be a hard inquiry and will temporarily impact your credit score. In general, each hard credit inquiry can decrease a credit score by five points.
The severity of any credit score decline due to a hard pull largely depends on the applicant.
A consumer with a strong credit report may see less of a credit scoring decline than one with a weak credit report. Multiple credit report hard inquiries can be a reason why a consumer with a weak credit history may see their credit scores decline moderately.
Recommended: Soft vs Hard Credit Inquiry: What You Need to Know
Can I Order My Own Tri-Merge Credit Report?
Tri-merge credit reports are available to lenders, but not generally to individuals. A lender may be willing to share with you the tri-merge credit report they pulled in your application process. A credit counselor who offers first-time homebuyer programs may also be able to pull a tri-merge credit report for you in a credit review process, but there may be a fee for that service.
However, you can — and it’s a good idea to do this — request a free copy of your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com.
You can request a free copy of your credit report once a week from each of the three major credit bureaus. Reviewing all three of your credit reports will give you much of the same information as is included in a tri-merge credit report.
The Takeaway
Tri-merge credit reports can prove highly useful to mortgage and other lenders looking for a comprehensive review of an applicant’s credit history.
By merging the credit report analysis of the three major credit reporting agencies, creditors and lenders are getting a fully-formed outlook they likely wouldn’t get by relying on a single credit reporting agency.
For consumers, the key takeaway on three-in-one credit reports is simple – take a disciplined and diligent stance on your credit, review your credit reports on a regular basis, and ensure key issues like on-time payments and credit utilization rates are in good standing.
Think twice before turning to high-interest credit cards. Consider a SoFi personal loan instead. SoFi offers competitive fixed rates and same-day funding. Checking your rate takes just a minute.
SoFi’s Personal Loan was named NerdWallet’s 2024 winner for Best Personal Loan overall.
FAQ
What is a tri-merge credit report?
A tri-merge credit report is a credit report combining information from the three major credit bureaus, Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion.
Is a tri-merge credit report a hard inquiry?
When a tri-merge credit report is pulled during the formal loan application process, it will be a hard inquiry on the applicant’s credit report.
Can I pull my own tri-merge credit report?
No. Tri-merge credit reports are available to lenders, not individuals, and they’re mainly used in the mortgage loan process. If you’re working with a credit counselor, you may be able to have a tri-merge credit report pulled during a credit review process.
Photo credit: iStock/Irina Ivanova
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