U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) has sent a letter to the U.S. Department of Justice‘s Antitrust Division, urging an investigation of Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO), the company that retains the rights to the mortgage market’s adopted methodology to measure consumer credit risk.
The letter, dated March 12 and addressed to assistant attorney general Jonathan Kanter, states that FICO “appears to be using its monopolistic power over the credit scoring market to increase costs for mortgage lenders – an increase that will be passed on to consumers.” Hawley demanded that the DOJ “investigate the company for these anticompetitive practices.”
Representatives at the DOJ did not reply to requests for comment.
Julie May, vice president and general manager of B2B Scores at FICO, said that in the mortgage space, the company charges “$3.50 per FICO score, and that constitutes less than two-tenths of 1% of the average closing costs of $6,000 per mortgage and is 15% or less of the average cost of a $70 tri-merge credit report.”
“If you end up pulling three scores in a tri-merge report, it’s $10.50. That is our price,” May said in an interview with HousingWire. “We do not set the price to the end customer that uses the FICO score; we actually license our models.”
Hawley’s move follows a December report showing that FICO would start charging one price to all mortgage lenders that access credit reports, regardless of their sales volumes. This was a departure from the tier-based structure implemented the prior year. FICO also began collecting the same per-score price for soft and hard pulls.
“For 2024, FICO is once again increasing the price to access its scores, including both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ pulls. It did the same thing last year, bumping prices as much as 400%,” Hawley said. “In total, FICO’s actions over the last two years have increased the cost of its credit scores by 500%. During the same period, FICO’s stock price has more than doubled.”
Hawley said that credit report “cost increases will be borne by homebuyers who are already facing the worst housing market in the country’s history.”
“FICO’s price increases will lead to either higher upfront costs or higher interest rates for borrowers, especially lower-income borrowers who may take longer to purchase a home,” he said. “This is, in short, a company abusing its market power to pad its bottom line and make life worse for Americans.”
In response, May explained that the FICO score was first available in the market in 1989. After two years, it started being used by the three major credit reporting agencies — Experian, Equifax and TransUnion. In 2012, the parties started to renegotiate their license agreement since FICO royalties had been flat for three decades.
The royalties increased to $0.50 to 0.60 per FICO score in 2018. A tier-based structure of $0.60 to $2.75 per score was implemented in 2022. After complaints from mortgage lenders, FICO returned to a fixed royalty of $3.50 per FICO score in 2023.
May added that different players use credit scores multiple times when originating a mortgage, but the royalty is charged only once. In addition, May said that approximately 99% of FICO scores accessed across the consumer credit industry are used for purposes other than mortgage originations.
Changes in credit report costs may result in lawsuits against the company. Attorneys at Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman LLC, a firm that represents investors in securities fraud class actions and shareholder derivative suits, announced Thursday that they are investigating potential claims against FICO since its stock price fell by 6.23% to $82.77 per share after Hawley’s letter was made public.
Hawley said in the letter that FICO is a “for-profit company operated under a sweetheart deal from the federal government” as its credit scores are required by entities such as the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and the U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs (VA). It results in FICO having a 90% market share in the business-to-business credit scoring market, he said.
Another federal entity currently requiring the Classic FICO score, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), said in February that the transition to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac acquisitions of single-family mortgages based on the alternative FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 credit models — replacing the model that has been in place for a decade — is expected to occur in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) will also transition from a tri-merge system to a bi-merge system at that time. The GSEs aim to accelerate the publication of VantageScore 4.0 historical data, starting in Q3 2024 rather than Q1 2025. But they are still working alongside the FHFA to achieve conditions for acquiring and publishing FICO 10T model data.
Although changes to credit requirements are on the way, May said that FICO competes “vigorously in all markets,” and its FICO 10T product has already covered more than $100 billion in mortgage originations in the nonconforming market.
In a blog post on March 15, FICO CEO Will Lansing added: “Even within the mortgage market, lenders originate nearly 30% of all mortgages outside the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac programs but still choose to use FICO Scores for those mortgages.”
Waiting out rate cuts “not worth it” for some sellers While the market remains competitive, with homes typically going under contract within 17 days of listing, the slight increase in inventory comes as good news for prospective homebuyers that have been navigating a market characterized by limited supply. As borrowing costs remain high, many homeowners … [Read more…]
National mortgage rates rose for all types of loans compared to a week ago, according to data compiled by Bankrate. Rates for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, 5/1 ARMs and jumbo loans increased.
While it’s expected that rates will gradually come down this year, it may not be a straight downward path.
At its Jan. 31 meeting, the Federal Reserve announced it would hold off changing rates, but could cut rates in the future. When the Fed meets on March 20, we may get more information on when rates will be cut. Rate hikes and cuts affect many areas of the economy, including the 10-year Treasury, a key benchmark for fixed-rate mortgages.
“Where the 10-Year Treasury yield goes, mortgage rates will follow,” says Ken Johnson of Florida Atlantic University. “In roughly the last two months, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 50 basis points. Depending on the source, the 30-year mortgage rate is up 48 basis points. Treasurys’ path remains a coin toss at this point.”
Rates last updated March 21, 2024.
The rates listed above are averages based on the assumptions shown here. Actual rates displayed within the site may vary. This story has been reviewed by Suzanne De Vita. All rate data accurate as of Thursday, March 21st, 2024 at 7:30 a.m.
30-year mortgage rate goes up, +0.12%
Today’s average 30-year fixed-mortgage rate is 6.96 percent, up 12 basis points from a week ago. Last month on the 21st, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was higher, at 7.11 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay a combined $662.62 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. Compared to last week, that’s $8.03 higher.
15-year mortgage rate rises, +0.07%
The average 15-year fixed-mortgage rate is 6.49 percent, up 7 basis points since the same time last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed mortgage at that rate will cost approximately $871 per $100,000 borrowed. That may squeeze your monthly budget than a 30-year mortgage would, but it comes with some big advantages: You’ll save thousands of dollars over the life of the loan in total interest paid and build equity much faster.
5/1 ARM rate rises, +0.16%
The average rate on a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.51 percent, up 16 basis points over the last week.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, are mortgage loans that come with a floating interest rate. In other words, the interest rate will change at regular intervals, unlike fixed-rate mortgages. These types of loans are best for people who expect to sell or refinance before the first or second adjustment. Rates could be much higher when the loan first adjusts, and thereafter.
While borrowers shunned ARMs during the pandemic days of super-low rates, this type of loan has made a comeback as mortgage rates have risen.
Monthly payments on a 5/1 ARM at 6.51 percent would cost about $633 for each $100,000 borrowed over the initial five years, but could ratchet higher by hundreds of dollars afterward, depending on the loan’s terms.
Jumbo mortgage rises, +0.12%
The average rate for a 30-year jumbo mortgage is 7.06 percent, up 12 basis points over the last week. Last month on the 21st, the average rate for jumbo mortgages was greater than 7.06 at 7.11 percent.
At today’s average rate, you’ll pay $669.34 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. Compared to last week, that’s $8.06 higher.
The average 30-year fixed-refinance rate is 6.97 percent, up 13 basis points over the last seven days. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed refinance was higher at 7.09 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $663.29 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. Compared with last week, that’s $8.70 higher.
Where are mortgage rates going?
With inflation still above the Fed’s 2 percent goal and the job market holding strong, the Fed isn’t likely to cut rates at its March meeting.
“The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the first half of this year, in my view,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, “but rate cuts of three, four or even five rounds will be possible in the second half of the year as rent measures will be much more well-behaved.”
The rates on 30-year mortgages mostly follow the 10-year Treasury, which shifts continuously as economic conditions dictate, while the cost of variable-rate home loans mirror the Fed’s moves.
These broader factors influence overall rate movement. As a borrower, you could be quoted a higher or lower rate compared to the trend.
What today’s rates mean for you and your mortgage
While mortgage rates change daily, it’s unlikely we’ll see rates back at 3 percent anytime soon. If you’re shopping for a mortgage now, it might be wise to lock your rate when you find an affordable loan. If your house-hunt is taking longer than anticipated, revisit your budget so you’ll know exactly how much house you can afford at prevailing market rates.
Keep in mind: You could save thousands over the life of your mortgage by getting at least three loan offers, according to Freddie Mac research. You don’t have to stick with your bank or credit union, either. There are many types of mortgage lenders, including online-only and local, smaller shops.
“All too often, some [homebuyers] take the path of least resistance when seeking a mortgage, in part because the process of buying a home can be stressful, complicated and time-consuming,” says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate. “But when we’re talking about the potential of saving a lot of money, seeking the best deal on a mortgage has an excellent return on investment. Why leave that money on the table when all it takes is a bit more effort to shop around for the best rate, or lowest cost, on a mortgage?”
More on current mortgage rates
Methodology
Bankrate displays two sets of rate averages that are produced from two surveys we conduct: one daily (“overnight averages”) and the other weekly (“Bankrate Monitor averages”).
The rates on this page represent our overnight averages. For these averages, APRs and rates are based on no existing relationship or automatic payments.
Learn more about Bankrate’s rate averages, editorial guidelines and how we make money.
Mortgage rates dipped to their lowest level last week since early February, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey, a welcome milestone for prospective homebuyers plagued by high borrowing costs that have surged in the past two years.
Key Facts
The average 30-year fixed rate last week was 6.84% for home loans less than $766,550, according to the poll of American mortgage brokers, down 18 basis points from last week’s 7.02% and dipping below 7% for the first time since the first week of February.
Mike Fratantoni, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s chief economist, explained in a statement the downward move in mortgage rates came as recent data painted a far more encouraging economic picture for the Federal Reserve to bring down interest rates.
That would likely cause mortgage rates to fall as the central bank’s rates strongly influence the rates set by lenders.
Homebuying activity ramped up as mortgage rates declined, as the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 7% increase in national mortgage applications, though Fratantoni noted total volume is down about 11% year-over-year.
Key Background
Mortgage rates remain significantly elevated from where they stood for much of the last two decades. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was about 3.8% in March 2022 and 3% in March 2021, according to federal mortgage lender Freddie Mac, with the low interest rates coming as the Fed held its target federal funds rate at close to zero in its bid to stimulate the economy in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. Still, mortgage rates are significantly below their 23-year peak of 7.8% hit last October. Though individual brokers actually set mortgage rates for individual applicants, the Fed’s monetary policy heavily influences mortgage rates as its target federal funds rate determines the costs at which banks can borrow from one another, setting a standard for the cost of borrowing throughout the economy.
Contra
Last week’s monthly jobs update revealed the highest unemployment rate since January 2022 and lower job growth than previously reported, while Tuesday’s inflation report indicated a significant decline in inflation in the services sector. Though some experts, such as Fratantoni, viewed the weak spots in the reports as a boon, the market remains unconvinced, as 10-year Treasury yields are up as hopes for an interest rate cut in the first half of this year declined.
Surprising Fact
The spread between mortgage rates (about 7%) and U.S, government bond yields (about 4.2%) sits at close to its highest level in more than three decades, an indication that institutional investors are less attracted to the prospect of holding riskier mortgages when safer government bonds are available at high yields.
Mike Fratantoni, the chief economist and senior vice president of research and industry technology at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), addressed three major challenges in the housing market during testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives‘ Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance.
The biggest challenge in today’s housing market is the lack of inventory, Fratantoni said in his written statement on Wednesday.
“While the demographic fundamentals of the market continue to support strong housing demand for the next several years, the market is millions of units short of that needed to support this demand,” he said.
The silver lining, however, is that builders have picked up their pace of construction. New homes now account for roughly one-third of homes on the market, which compares to a more typical historical share of 10%.
As a result, a large delivery of multifamily units is expected over the next few years, but the recent trend in elevated mortgage rates has exacerbated this supply shortfall, Fratantoni explained.
Compounding the lack of supply is the proverbial “lock-in“ effect that has disincentivized homeowners to sell their current properties, thereby giving up a low mortgage rate and taking on a new loan at a much higher rate.
“A homeowner that was able to refinance into a low-3% or high-2% mortgage rate is just much less likely to list their property,” Fratantoni told lawmakers. “It doesn’t mean they’re never going to list … but it’s a friction in the system, so it’s going to keep existing inventory much lower than it otherwise would be.
“That’s been a support to home prices, but for someone trying to get into the market, it’s really an obstacle.”
Concerns over Basel III Endgame
Fratantoni also expressed concern that the recent Basel III Endgame proposal would accelerate the trend of the mortgage market shifting away from depository institutions, particularly large banks, toward non-depositories and independent mortgage banks.
The Basel Endgame proposal — issued by the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in July 2023 – boosted capital requirements for residential mortgage portfolios at large U.S. banks in comparison to international standards.
Under the draft proposal, 40% to 90% risk weights would be assigned for large banks that issue residential mortgages, depending on the loan-to-value ratio, which is 20 basis points above the international standard.
MBA’s comment letter highlighted the overly conservative risk weights on mortgages — particularly for low down payment loans favored by first-time homebuyers — and the lack of benefit for loans with mortgage insurance. It also mentioned the punitive treatment of mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) and the burdensome treatment of warehouse lending as being particularly negative for the mortgage market.
The Basel Endgame proposal would increase capital requirements on all three types of mortgage activities by banks — low down payment loans held on balance sheets, mortgage servicing and warehouse lending.
As a result, the Basel Endgame proposal “poses a significant risk to the stability of the housing finance market if it is not modified across all of these dimensions,” Frantantoni stated.
Rising cost of property insurance
Addressing the increased cost of property insurance for both prospective homebuyers and current homeowners is a priority for the MBA.
“The lack of availability and cost of homeowners insurance … it’s not only impacting the ability of borrowers to qualify for a loan, but increasing payments for existing homeowners to such an extent really puts them on an unstable path, so it really is front and center for us right now,” Fratantoni told lawmakers.
The average cost to insure a $300,000 home surged by 12% in 2023, reaching $1,770 per year, according to an Insurify report.
Certain insurance carriers have also limited their participation in natural disaster-prone states like California and Florida, given the increases in risks and costs.
Over the past 18 months, seven of the 12 largest insurance companies by market share in California have either paused or restricted new policies in the state, highlighted by the departures of State Farm and Allstate in June 2023.
Due to these departures and price hikes, the California FAIR Plan, the state’s insurer of last resort, has seen enrollment double over the past few years.
“Although these increases in premiums and reductions in availability of insurance have been concentrated in certain markets at this point, the concerns regarding property insurance continue to build for our lender members in the residential, multifamily and commercial sectors — and for all their customers,” Fratantoni said.
ADDISON, Texas, March 21, 2024 (SEND2PRESS NEWSWIRE) — Click n’ Close, a multi-state mortgage lender, today announced its Preferred Partner status with The Mortgage Collaborative (TMC), a leader in mortgage cooperatives dedicated to providing its members with cutting-edge technology and expert mortgage banking resources.
Image caption: Click n’ Close.
As a correspondent investor, Click n’ Close will offer TMC’s Lender Members access to SmartBuy™, a proprietary suite of down payment assistance (DPA) loan programs designed to give homebuyers an advantage in today’s heightened mortgage interest rate environment. This national program combines a USDA or FHA-insured 30-year first mortgage with either a second lien that is fully forgivable after five years or a 10-year repayable second lien amortized up to 30 years. The second lien funds available through both options meet agency minimum required investment guidelines and can be used by the borrower towards their down payment, closing costs, or to buy down the interest rate. SmartBuy also has no income or first-time homebuyer restrictions.
“TMC is one of the preeminent cooperatives serving mortgage lenders in today’s market, and we are delighted to be part of its Preferred Partner network,” said Click n’ Close founder and CEO Jeff Bode. “SmartBuy is a competitive alternative to managing the myriad of state and local programs. SmartBuy has helped more than 6,000 borrowers become homeowners by extending more than $1.5 billion in DPA-related financing. We’re looking forward to expanding both these numbers through our partnership with TMC.”
“TMC is thrilled to have Click n’ Close as a Preferred Partner serving the growing needs of today’s mortgage lenders through its SmartBuy product suite,” said TMC President and COO Melissa Langdale. “This partnership is a testament to TMC’s mission of providing its members with access to the most innovative and reliable solutions in the industry.”
About The Mortgage Collaborative
Based in Austin, Texas, The Mortgage Collaborative was founded in 2013 by four notable industry leaders and is the nation’s largest independent mortgage cooperative network. TMC is singularly focused on creating an environment of collaboration and innovation for small to mid-size mortgage lenders across the country to reduce cost, increase profitability, and better serve the dynamic and changing consumer base in America. For more information, visit http://www.mortgagecollaborative.com/
About Click n’ Close, Inc.
Click n’ Close, Inc., formerly known as Mid America Mortgage, is a multi-state mortgage lender serving consumers and mortgage originators through its wholesale and correspondent channels and is also the nation’s leading provider of Section 184 home loans for Native Americans. In operation since 1940, Click n’ Close has thrived by retaining its entrepreneurial spirit and leading the market in innovation, including its adoption of eClosings and eNotes.
Combining this culture of innovation with a risk management mindset enables Click n’ Close to deliver new products to market that address the challenges facing both borrowers and third-party originators (TPOs). These innovations include its USDA one-time close construction loans, proprietary down payment assistance (DPA) program and reverse mortgage division. Its direct relationships with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae and private investors afford Click n’ Close direct access to the capital markets, thus ensuring maximum liquidity for its product innovations. By servicing its loan programs in-house, Click n’ Close provides its wholesale and correspondent partners with an additional level of certainty regarding loan salability and superior borrower service over the life of the loan.
Ally Home, the residential mortgage lending arm of Ally Bank, is offering a $5,000 grant for eligible homebuyers in the select markets of Charlotte, Detroit and Philadelphia, the company announced on Tuesday. The upfront lump sum can be applied toward a down payment, closing costs or other expenses related to the homebuying process.
Ally is partnering with HouseCanary, an AI-powered residential real estate data and analytics firm, to help consumers identify grant-eligible properties using the Ally ComeHome search portal. Ally created a one-stop shop with all the tools, resources and products a homebuyer might need, its news release stated.
“Buying a home is an unattainable dream for more than half of U.S. residents, which is why we strive to make homeownership more accessible to a wider range of individuals and families,“ Glenn Brunker, president of Ally Home, said in a statement.
“By bridging the affordability gap and easing the burden of the upfront costs of purchasing, our grants will help more people realize their dream of being a homeowner with the ability to enter the market, build equity and create generational wealth.“
The Ally home grant will be available for prospective homebuyers who are purchasing a primary residence. It will target individuals with an income less than or equal to 100% of the area median income (AMI) in the Charlotte, Detroit and Philadelphia areas, with possible expansion to come in the future.
There is a possibility to combine the grant with other offerings from Ally, including the Fannie Mae HomeReady Mortgage program. It enables consumers to purchase a house with a 3% down payment. Ally is considering expanding the program to more markets in the future.
“By incorporating our ComeHome technology into Ally’s website, we’re equipping Ally’s customers with a user-friendly platform that makes finding grant-eligible properties a simple and efficient process,“ Jeremy Sicklick, co-founder and CEO at HouseCanary, said in a statement.
Ally launched its ComeHome platform in collaboration with HouseCanary in late 2023. The platform has 53,000 users and continues to grow.
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) held its short-term policy interest rate steady at a range of 5.25% to 5.5% for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday.
“The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” the FOMC said in a statement. “In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans.”
Earlier in March, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized during his semiannual monetary policy testimony that the central bank needed “just a bit more evidence” that inflation was on the right path before implementing the first rate cut since March 2020. On multiple occasions Wednesday, Powell reiterated the central bank’s commitment to a target of 2% inflation.
Fed officials also unveiled their latest interest rate and economic projections for the first time since December. At that time, most officials agreed that inflation would fall from just above 3% at the end of 2023 to just below 2.5% at the end of 2024. Most penciled out three quarter-point rate cuts this year.
But in the interval between the December and March meetings, inflation in both January and February came in higher than expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate continued to stay below 4%, companies still exhibited expanding payrolls, and workers boasted growth in real wages.
While the projections for the policy rate at the end of 2024 did not change, policymakers expect fewer rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 than they anticipated in December. In other words, interest rates are poised to stay higher for longer.
Fed officials also expect inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, to end the year at 2.6% instead of 2.4%, a modestly higher level than they anticipated in December. As of Wednesday afternoon, investors were placing the probability of a cut by June at 74.4%, according to the CME Group. The Fed meets one more time before that, on April 30 and May 1.
What does a cautious approach mean for housing?
Mortgage rates have trended upward since the beginning of the year. As of March 18, mortgage rates were 30 to 40 basis points higher than on Jan. 1, 2024, according to Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research.
Experts still expect mortgage rates to come down in 2024 but not as fast as anticipated, hampering homebuyers’ prospects of improved affordability. New construction will continue to be a necessary source of housing options for buyers as the supply of existing homes remains limited.
According to Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale, assumable mortgages — which allow a buyer to take over a seller’s existing mortgage terms — could become a more viable alternative.
“A small share of the total outstanding mortgage pool is eligible for assumption, and the share of sellers who are aware of this feature and advertising it on their listings is even smaller, but in some of the markets where sellers are most likely to advertise this feature, Realtor.com research suggests that buyers can find mortgage assumption advertised on 1-3% of active homes for sale,” Hale said in a statement.
Average mortgage rates edged higher yesterday. Unfortunately, it was the sixth consecutive business day on which they’ve risen.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might barely move. However, these early mini-trends frequently alter speed or direction as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.15%
7.17%
Unchanged
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.57%
6.61%
-0.04
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.16%
7.19%
+0.02
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.63%
6.66%
-0.05
30-year fixed FHA
6.51%
7.19%
Unchanged
30-year fixed VA
6.61%
6.72%
-0.03
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.3%
7.39%
Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Tomorrow’s Federal Reserve events (see below) could make a big difference to mortgage rates in the near and medium terms. But, right now, I’m pessimistic about our seeing a sustained downward trend until the summer. And some wonder if the fall might be a more realistic timeframe.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes held steady again at 4.32%. (Neutral for mortgage rates. However, yields were rising this morning.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were mixed this morning. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices increased to $83.18 from $81.35 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices inched down to $2,156 from $2,159 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — dropped to 69 from 75 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to hold close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
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What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Tomorrow
I covered yesterday the three Federal Reserve events due early tomorrow afternoon:
2 p.m. Eastern — Rate announcement and report publications
2 p.m. Eastern — Summary of Economic Projects publication. This occurs only quarterly and includes a dot plot
I’ll brief you more fully on those tomorrow morning. That way you’ll know what to look out for before it’s too late to act.
Personally, I’m not very hopeful about the impact of the Fed’s events on mortgage rates. Of course, I can’t be sure what they’ll bring. But recent economic data has likely reinforced the central bank’s natural caution. And I suspect that it may signal later and fewer cuts in general interest rates this year than markets have been expecting.
If I’m right, that could be seriously bad for mortgage rates. So, let’s hope I’m wrong.
Today and later in the week
I’ll be surprised if today’s economic reports move mortgage rates much. They cover February’s housing starts and building permits. It’s not that those data are unimportant. However, they rarely attract the attention of the investors who largely determine mortgage rates.
We have to wait until Thursday for a couple of reports that sometimes affect mortgage rates. They’re two March purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) from S&P. One is for the services sector and the other covers manufacturing. I’ll brief you on those tomorrow morning.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Mar. 14 report put that same weekly average at 6.74% down from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Feb. 12 and the MBA’s on Feb. 20.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.5%
6.3%
6.1%
5.9%
MBA
6.9%
6.6%
6.3%
6.1%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
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You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
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Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Unstable borrowing conditions and a lack of affordable properties kept homeownership out of reach for many Americans in 2023. However, as the spring buying season approaches and signs that the market is recovering emerge, buyer sentiment is shifting. According to the National Association of Realtors®, national existing home sales in January 2024 were up year-over-year by 1.3%. Housing supply is also improving, with national inventory up by 3.1% year-over-year and 2% month-over-month.
These positive changes are setting the stage for an active spring market in the US. But as competition increases, so do home prices. The national median price for a single-family home in the US increased by 5.1% year-over-year in January to $379,100. This begs the question: where can prospective homebuyers find the best deals this spring?
To better understand where homebuyers can find pockets of affordability, Zoocasa analyzed home prices in 50 metropolitan statistical areas across the country to determine which are below the national median and where the most growth is happening. Median single-family home prices were sourced from the National Association of REALTORS® and are from Q4 2023, except the national median home price which is from January 2024.
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It’s usually said that the further outside of an urban center you go, the more affordable the home price. But of the 33 metropolitan statistical areas with a median home price below the national median, 15 have populations above 2 million, and five have populations above 5 million. The largest urban center with a median home price below the national median is Chicago, IL with a median home price of $343,300 in Q4 of 2023. Despite the city experiencing year-over-year price growth of 6.2%, Chicago’s median home price is still $35,800 below the national median.
Of the 50 markets we analyzed, Cleveland, OH came out on top for affordability. Cleveland’s median home price of $190,700 is an impressive $188,400 below the national median and is one of the few areas on our list where the median home price dropped from last year. Other markets where the median home price fell from last year include Myrtle Beach, SC, Houston, TX, San Antonio, TX, and Memphis, TN. Alabama’s capital, Montgomery, was the only other market on our list besides Cleveland with a median home price below $200,000. Homebuyers here can snag a home for approximately $185,700 below the national median.
It’s worth noting that five out of the six markets that experienced year-over-year price growth of more than 9% have home prices below the national median. These markets include Rochester, NY, Hartford, CT, New Haven, CT, Oklahoma City, OK, and Cincinnati, OH. This means that homebuyers of all price ranges, including those purchasing lower-priced homes, can still expect to build a significant amount of equity.
Markets that have experienced significant year-over-year price growth also present good investment opportunities. For instance, single-family homes in Philadelphia, PA have experienced year-over-year price growth of 7.2% and are still $20,100 below the national median price, making this sought-after city a good option for first-time investors. Kansas City, MO is an emerging market that would make a great first-time investment location. The city garnered a lot of media attention last year thanks to the city’s football team and frequent Taylor Swift visits, resulting in the median home price rising by 5.9% year-over-year. Despite its growing popularity, the median home price in Kansas City remains one of the lowest on our list at $315,800.
Homebuyers with their hearts set on a particular destination, especially one of the largest and most sought-after cities in the US, would benefit from considering smaller markets relatively close to their dream location. While the Big Apple might be out of reach for the average buyer, with a median home price of $659,200, New York’s second and third-largest cities still maintain affordable prices. Buffalo and Rochester have median home prices of $243,500 and $230,500 respectively. This is nearly $150,000 less than the national median, compared to New York City, where the median home price is more than $280,000 above the national median.
Though San Francisco, CA, and Los Angeles, CA have notoriously high home prices, at $1,251,000 and $884,400 respectively, California homebuyers still have affordable options. At just $26,600 above the national median, Fresno’s median home price is one of the more affordable options in California. But for savvy buyers looking for a deal in California, Bakersfield presents the best option with a median home price of $11,800 below the national median.
In Florida, motivated buyers on the hunt for affordable prices will have to look outside of the vibrant Miami market, which has a median home price more than $200,000 above the national median. Tampa’s median home price exceeds the national median by just $30,900, while Daytona Beach and Tallahassee offer more affordable housing, with median prices $16,700 and $57,100 below the national median, respectively.
Planning to enter one of these markets this spring? It’s important to speak with a local realtor who is familiar with your local real estate market. Give us a call today to discuss your home-buying plans.