Uncommon Knowledge
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For the first time since Fannie Mae began its national housing survey (in 2010), a larger share of consumers believe mortgage rates will decrease over the next year, rather than increase.
WASHINGTON – Fannie Mae said increased confidence in job security and anticipated mortgage rate reductions have driven its Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) up by 3.5 points in January to 70.7, its highest level of optimism since March 2022.
In January, 82% of consumers said they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months, up from 75% the previous month. Additionally, an all-time survey-high 36% of respondents indicated they expect mortgage rates to go down in the next 12 months, while 28% expect them to go up,and 35% expect rates to remain the same.
However, consumer perceptions of homebuying conditions remain overwhelmingly pessimistic, with only 17% of consumers indicating it’s a good time to buy a home. Overall, the full index is up 9.1 points year over year.
“Mortgage rate optimism increased markedly again in January, with a survey-high percentage of consumers anticipating mortgage rate declines over the next year,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist. “For the first time in our National Housing Survey’s history, a greater share of consumers believe mortgage rates will decrease over the next year, rather than increase. Consumers also expressed greater confidence in their job situations this month, another sign that housing sentiment may continue to improve in 2024.”
Duncan continued: “However, while home affordability may improve if actual mortgage rates continue moving downward, other parts of the affordability equation have yet to ease or improve for consumers. A large majority still think home prices will either increase or stay the same; the ‘good time to buy’ component continues to hover near its historical low; and fewer than one-in-five respondents indicated that their household income was significantly higher year over year, matching a survey low. All in all, while a lower mortgage rate path supports our forecast for a gradual increase in housing demand and sales activity in 2024, until we see a meaningful increase in housing supply, we expect affordability will remain a significant barrier to homeownership for many households.”
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased in January by 3.5 points to 70.7. The HPSI is up 9.1 points compared to the same time last year.
Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home remained unchanged at 17%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy remained unchanged at 83%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy remained unchanged month over month.
Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home increased from 57% to 60%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell decreased from 42% to 40%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell increased 3 percentage points month over month.
Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from 39% to 37%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down decreased from 24% to 22%. The share who think home prices will stay the same increased from 36% to 40%. As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months remained unchanged month over month.
Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months increased from 31% to 36%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up decreased from 31% to 28%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same decreased from 36% to 35%. As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 8 percentage points month over month.
Job Loss Concern: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months increased from 75% to 82%, while the percentage who say they are concerned decreased from 24% to 18%. As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job increased 14 percentage points month over month.
Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from 20% to 17%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower remained unchanged at 13%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from 67% to 69%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 3 percentage points month over month.
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) distills information about consumers’ home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers’ current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers’ evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher than they were a year earlier.
The National Housing Survey (NHS) is a monthly attitudinal survey, launched in 2010, which polls the adult general population of the United States to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, purchase and rental prices, household finances, and overall confidence in the economy. Each respondent is asked more than 100 questions, making the NHS one of the most detailed attitudinal longitudinal surveys of its kind, to track attitudinal shifts, six of which are used to construct the HPSI (findings are compared with the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010).
The January 2024 National Housing Survey was conducted between January 2, 2024 and January 19, 2024.
© 2024 Florida Realtors®
Source: floridarealtors.org
So far in 2024, fewer homes are taking price cuts than in 2023, and this trend is on the verge of breaking below the 2023 lows in price cuts percentages. While weekly inventory is still falling, we have year-over-year growth in total active listing and new listings data. This calls into question a mortgage rate lockdown, as mortgage rates are also higher year over year.
What is all this data pointing to? We might have an average year in housing compared to the past four years! So, we need to be very mindful of the weekly data to get clues on the marketplace.
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is a traditional housing activity. However, this data can move stronger in either direction when mortgage rates rise or fall aggressively.
A perfect example was in 2022: when housing inventory rose faster as demand crashed, the percentage of price cuts rose faster. After November of 2022, home sales stopped crashing and the price-cut percentage data has stabilized. Even when mortgage rates were approaching 8% last year, the number of homes taking price cuts was always 4% below the 2022 level. Currently, the price-cut percentage is less than 1% from breaking below the lows set in 2023. Demand is rising from a low bar, and total housing inventory levels are still historically low. This is the price-cut percentage for last week over the last few years:
A really positive story for 2024 is that we have higher housing inventory year over year. It isn’t anything to write home about, but it’s a positive story nonetheless. I am a very pro-housing supply person and will feel much better about the housing market when we return to pre-COVID-19 levels for total active listings. Last week, inventory fell week to week but was up over this time last year. I am still hoping we get the seasonal bottom in inventory in February and not March or April.
Here is a look at last week:
The new listing data put a big smile on my face this week! For the first time in a while, this was a good week for new listing data. Over the last few years, we have been trending at the lowest levels ever, so seeing a positive week is great. Also, this brings into question the mortgage rate lockdown premise since mortgage rates are higher yearly. This is something I have been discussing for many months on CNBC.
Weekly new listing data for last week over the last several years:
The 10-year yield is the key for housing in 2024. In my 2024 forecast, I put the 10-year yield range between 3.21%-4.25%, with a critical line in the sand at 3.37%. If the economic data stays firm, we shouldn’t break below 3.21%, but if the labor data gets weaker, that line in the sand — which I call the Gandalf line, as in “you shall not pass” — will be tested.
This 10-year yield range translates to mortgage rates between 5.75%-7.25%, but this assumes spreads are still bad. The spreads have been improving this year so much that if we hit 4.25% on the 10-year yield, we still won’t see 7.25% in mortgage rates.
Last week was very interesting because we had a few Fed events to deal with. First there was the aftermath of Jay Powell’s 60 Minutes interview. Then the president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, made statements about how the Federal Reserve policy isn’t as tight as people would believe, presenting his case in this article. However, just a few days later, Kashkari talked about how his gut tells him that two to three rate cuts are indeed in play. I discussed this turn of events with Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler on the HousingWire Daily podcast.
The 10-year yield closed at the week high on Friday, even though the highly anticipated CPI revisions data showed that the inflation slowdown was accurate and no upward revisions were made.
Mortgage rates didn’t move around too much last week, ranging between 7.04% and 6.95%. However, as we can see, even with significant progress on the growth rate of inflation slowing down, mortgage rates are near 7% and the 10-year yield is still over 4%. My point on this topic has been clear for a while: the Fed hasn’t pivoted, and they have a highly restrictive policy against housing as they still believe in their COVID-19 housing policy keeping home sales trending near all-time lows.
Last week, we had some confusion on purchase apps, as the unadjusted numbers showed 6% week-to-week growth. We don’t account for that data line ever; the actual numbers showed -1% week-to-week growth, and we are still showing negative 19% year-over-year data. Last year, we had better positive data as mortgage rates headed down toward 6% before rates started higher, so the year-over-year comps will get easier. However, if we had strong housing demand, purchase application data would easily be positive year over year and by double digits as well. For now, just think of a bounce from record lows in demand.
The year-to-date count is two positive reports and two negative purchase application reports. Since mortgage rates started to fall in November of 2023, we have had eight positive and two negative weeks after making some holiday adjustments. This has the potential to take the seasonal inventory bottom to March. However, I am hoping for the bottom in February.
We have a lot of data coming up: two inflation reports, retail sales, the builder’s confidence index and housing starts. The CPI inflation data will be exciting over the next six to seven months because we can start to see the rent factor kicking into higher gear to the downside. Even though the Fed says they don’t account for shelter when talking about rate cuts, lower inflation will bring more and more pressure on them to pivot and bring rates down. We will have tons of data lines to work from next week.
Source: housingwire.com
The latest Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) shows an increase of 3.5 points in January to 70.7, its highest level since March 2022. Overall, the full index is up 9.1 points year over year.
The index and its assessment are based on the following components:
As for the latest index:
Expert take:
“Mortgage rate optimism increased markedly again in January, with a survey-high percentage of consumers anticipating mortgage rate declines over the next year,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist. “For the first time in our National Housing Survey’s history, a greater share of consumers believe mortgage rates will decrease over the next year, rather than increase. Consumers also expressed greater confidence in their job situations this month, another sign that housing sentiment may continue to improve in 2024.”
Duncan continued: “However, while home affordability may improve if actual mortgage rates continue moving downward, other parts of the affordability equation have yet to ease or improve for consumers. A large majority still think home prices will either increase or stay the same; the ‘good time to buy’ component continues to hover near its historical low; and fewer than one-in-five respondents indicated that their household income was significantly higher year over year, matching a survey low. All in all, while a lower mortgage rate path supports our forecast for a gradual increase in housing demand and sales activity in 2024, until we see a meaningful increase in housing supply, we expect affordability will remain a significant barrier to homeownership for many households.”
For the full report, click here https://www.fanniemae.com/media/50266/display.
Source: rismedia.com
Many Americans expect mortgage rates to decline over the coming months but they remain pessimistic about how affordable buying a home will be in 2024, a survey by Fannie Mae shows.
The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index jumped by 3.5 points last month to nearly 71, its highest level since March 2022. This increased confidence was built on people feeling more secure in their jobs and those who believe the cost of a home is likely to decline this year, the index showed.
But the survey also revealed a fault line that is currently shaping the housing market— despite rates falling from their two-decade highs in the fall of last year, affordability still remains a concern for potential buyers. The Fannie Mae survey showed that a mere 17 percent of respondents said that now is a good time to purchase a property.
An all-time survey-high 36 percent of respondents indicated that they expect mortgage rates to go down in the next 12 months, while 28 percent expected them to go up, and 35 percent expected rates to remain the same.
“For the first time in our National Housing Survey’s history, a greater share of consumers believe mortgage rates will decrease over the next year, rather than increase,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, said in a note. “Consumers also expressed greater confidence in their job situations this month, another sign that housing sentiment may continue to improve in 2024.”
But those consumers were also worried about whether they will be able to buy even as mortgage rates drop.
“While home affordability may improve if actual mortgage rates continue moving downward, other parts of the affordability equation have yet to ease or improve for consumers,” Duncan said. “A large majority still think home prices will either increase or stay the same; the ‘good time to buy’ component continues to hover near its historical low.”
Mortgage rates hit 8 percent in October 2023, making securing a home loan the most expensive it has been since the turn of the century. Since then, rates have declined to the mid-6 percent range, a development that has sparked some activity among buyers.
This jump in interest has yet to translate into a selling spree, partly due to elevated prices.
On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) pointed out that the median single-family used home price jumped 3.5 percent from a year ago to $391,700. Meanwhile, the payments that American households would pay on their mortgages if they put down 20 percent of a loan was 10 percent higher than a year ago at about $2,200.
“Many homebuyers have been shocked at high housing costs, with a typical monthly mortgage payment rising from $1,000 three years ago to more than $2,000 last year,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement shared with Newsweek.
The rise in prices is partly due to a lack of enough supply of homes available for sale. This was a particular challenge in the used homes market, where sellers who own mortgages in the 2 to 3 percent range are reluctant to give them up with current costs of home loans high.
“While a lower mortgage rate path supports our forecast for a gradual increase in housing demand and sales activity in 2024, until we see a meaningful increase in housing supply, we expect affordability will remain a significant barrier to home ownership for many households,” Duncan said.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
The Nashville housing market has been a hot topic of discussion in recent years. As the city continues to thrive and attract new residents, buyers and renters need to understand the current state of the housing market and rental market in Nashville.
In this article, we will delve into the key factors shaping the Nashville housing market in 2024, including supply and demand, home prices, rental market dynamics and future projections. Grab your cowboy boots and your trusty six-string because we’re exploring Nashville in all its glory.
Known to many as Music City, Nashville has experienced significant growth in recent years. With a healthy economy, a legendary music scene and a desirable quality of life, it’s no wonder that people are flocking to this city in search of new opportunities. However, this rapid population growth has put immense pressure on Nashville’s housing and rental market.
One of the primary drivers of the housing market in Nashville is the city’s population growth. According to the latest data, Nashville has experienced a population increase of over 10% in the past five years. This surge in population has created a high demand for housing, leading to increased competition and rising prices.
While the demand for housing in Nashville continues to rise, the supply has struggled to keep pace. This supply-demand imbalance has resulted in skyrocketing home prices and limited housing options for buyers. As a result, affordability has become a significant concern for many residents, especially first-time homebuyers.
The housing market for homes in Nashville has seen a consistent upward trend in prices over the past few years. This rise in prices can be attributed to a number of factors, including limited inventory, strong demand and other economic conditions. Let’s take a closer look at the pricing trends in different segments of the Nashville housing market.
Single-family homes have experienced substantial price appreciation in Nashville. The median home price in the city has decreased by 6.1% over the past year, reaching an all-time high of $465,000. This price surge can be attributed to the high demand for single-family homes and the limited inventory availability.
The condominium and townhouse market in Nashville has also witnessed significant price growth. With a median price increase of 36.4% in the past year, these properties have become increasingly popular among buyers looking for a more affordable option in the city. However, even with the price appreciation, condos and townhouses still offer a more affordable entry point into the Nashville housing market than single-family homes.
In addition to the buying market, the rental market in Nashville is also experiencing its fair share of challenges and opportunities. Let’s explore the key dynamics shaping the rental market in the city.
Similar to the real estate market, the rental market in Nashville is characterized by high demand and low vacancy rates. With an influx of new residents and a limited supply of rental units, competition among renters has intensified. As a result, rental prices have been on the rise, making it increasingly challenging for tenants to find affordable options.
As the demand for rentals continues to grow, developers have been focusing on luxury rental properties with upscale amenities. These high-end rentals cater to professionals and individuals looking for a premium living experience in Nashville. From rooftop pools to fitness centers and concierge services, these luxury rentals offer a wide range of amenities to attract tenants.
Looking ahead, what can we expect for the future of the Nashville housing market? While it’s challenging to make precise predictions, several factors may influence the market in the coming years.
Nashville’s population is projected to continue growing in the foreseeable future. As more people are drawn to the city’s strong culture and fruitful job market, the demand for housing will likely remain high. This sustained population growth will put further pressure on the housing market, potentially leading to even higher prices and increased competition.
To accommodate the growing population, Nashville has been investing in public infrastructure and large-scale development projects. These initiatives aim to improve transportation, expand housing options and enhance the overall quality of life in the city for all residents.
The Nashville housing market is experiencing significant challenges and opportunities in 2024. With a rapidly growing population and limited housing supply, the market is characterized by high demand, rising prices and affordability concerns. Buyers and renters face intense competition, making it crucial to stay informed and prepared. As the city continues to evolve, it will be fascinating to see how the Nashville housing market adapts and thrives in the years to come.
When you’re ready to stake your claim in the Nashville market, you know where to start your search for a Nashville apartment or house.
Source: rent.com
Housing demand is up and it’s time to track the spring housing data and see what the selling season will bring. As I always stress, we are working from the lowest bar ever with demand, so let’s add historical context to the data. But, even with mortgage rates higher this year than last year, demand is rising.
As we get closer to the end of the first month of 2024, forward-looking purchase application data looks good. Once I make some holiday adjustments, we have eight weeks of a positive trend since mortgage rates fell from the 8% high, and as of now, the slightly higher rates we’ve seen recently haven’t impacted the data just yet. Historically, higher rates negatively impact the weekly purchase application data, and I will look for this over the next few weeks . But it’s very early in the seasonal demand timeframe for housing, so we will take it one week at a time. Purchase apps were up 8% week to week and still down 18% year over year. Last year at this time we got a boost in demand with rates heading toward 6%.
Here is a look at last week:
Last week, we saw active inventory fall slightly week to week. This is common in January. We have had some positive purchase application data recently, and the pending home sales report came in as a beat last week. So, inventory falling looks normal. However, I would like to see the inventory bottom very soon and have a more traditional seasonal increase, rather than having a bottom in March or April.
One of the more positive stories about housing inventory recently is that we found a bottom in new listings data last year, and we have been starting to grow new listings data for some time now on a year-over-year basis. It isn’t anything significant, but I will take it after what we have been through the last few years. This is something I talked about on CNBC recently.
Weekly new listing data:
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — nothing abnormal about that. However, this data line accelerates higher when mortgage rates rise, and demand gets hit harder. A perfect example was in 2022: when housing inventory rose faster, the percentage of price cuts rose faster as home sales crashed. That increase matched the slope of the inventory increase, and people needed to cut prices to sell their homes.
Toward the end of 2022, that marketplace changed as home sales stopped crashing and the market stabilized. So far this year, the price cut percentage data is still on pace to break below the lows we saw in 2023 in the spring. This data line is very seasonal, so what is occurring now is very normal.
This is the price-cut percentage for the same week over the last few years:
The 10-year yield is the key for housing in 2024. In my 2024 forecast, I have the 10-year yield range between 3.21%-4.25%, with a critical line in the sand at 3.37%. If the economic data stays firm, we shouldn’t break below 3.21%, but if the labor data gets weaker, that line in the sand — which I call the Gandalf line, as in “you shall not pass” — will be tested.
This 10-year yield range means mortgage rates between 5.75%-7.25%, but this assumes spreads are still bad. The spreads have been improving this year so much that if we hit 4.25% on the 10-year yield, we won’t see 7.25% in mortgage rates.
Last week, we got great news on inflation data, and we have been saying the inflation growth rate has slowed. However, in the economic game of rock-paper-scissors, it’s labor over inflation data, and the jobless claims data are too low, so the Fed hasn’t pivoted yet. Monday’s podcast will go over this topic more clearly.
The 10-year yield started last week at 4.14% and ended the week there. Mortgage rates ranged between 6.875% and 6.95%, ending the week at 6.90%. There is not much movement with the 10-year yield and mortgage rates. It’s wild to think that three to six month PCE inflation data is running below 2%, and mortgage rates are still this high. Remember, the Fed hasn’t pivoted and is still very restrictive.
It’s jobs week! So we will get the four labor reports: Job openings, ADP, jobless claims and the BLS jobs report. The Federal Reserve meets this week: we won’t see a rate cut this time but the key is the language they use in this meeting after the recent inflation data we saw. Also, the question and answers should be very interesting. We also have some home price data, which of course is a bit lagging from what is happening currently, but we will get those reports as well.
Source: housingwire.com
As global central banks raised interest rates to tame inflation,
home prices have cooled relative to the start of the hiking cycle. However, despite the
sensitivity of the residential market to higher policy rates, prices are
still above historical averages. Home prices in advanced economies,
including most European Union countries, as well as Africa and the Middle
East are 10 percent to 25 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Rising interest rates have passed swiftly to residential mortgage markets,
impeding affordability for current and prospective home buyers.
Additionally, scarce home supply is limiting purchases in some regions. In
all, housing affordability is more stretched amid still-elevated home
prices and higher interest rates.
In the first half of 2023, mortgage rates in advanced economies climbed by
more than 2 percentage points compared to the previous year. During this
period, countries like Australia, Canada and New Zealand witnessed
substantial declines in real house prices, likely due to a high share of
adjustable-rate mortgages and home prices that have been stretched since
before the pandemic. Comparatively, home prices have fallen more than 15
percent in some advanced economies while the drop in emerging economies was
less significant. But, on net, real house prices will need to keep cooling
from the 2021 and 2022 highs to reach pre-pandemic levels.
Higher borrowing costs are likely to see the largest impact on household
debt service ratios—a measure of borrowers’ loan repayment ability—in
countries where housing markets remain overvalued and average lifespans for
mortgage loans are shorter, according to our latest
Global Financial Stability Report.
Approvals and repayment
For instance, for some advanced economies such as Norway, Sweden, Denmark,
and the Netherlands with pre-existing double-digit households’
debt service ratios, borrowers’ debt servicing costs could increase by up to 1.8 percentage
points given the surge in interest rates. That would have consequences for
loan approvals and borrower repayment capabilities. But borrowers are also
less indebted, and underwriting standards have been strengthened since the
global financial crisis, tempering the risk of a surge in loan defaults.
This may have also limited instances of forced selling or foreclosures of
homes, helping to support home prices.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes brought big
changes to the mortgage loan market, with the average rate on a 30-year
fixed mortgage recently reaching a two-decade high of 7.8 percent. For
prospective buyers, entry costs are putting homeownership further out of
reach as the required down payments have also become a prohibitive factor
because savings have shrunk since the pandemic.
Existing homeowners, deterred from purchasing new properties due to larger
monthly mortgage payments, stay put causing a reduction in supply of
existing homes. This phenomenon, known as “lock-in” effect, is particularly
evident in the United States, where long-tenured fixed-rate mortgages are
most popular. With average 30-year mortgage rates currently at 6.6 percent,
around 3 percentage points above pandemic lows, mortgage originations
remain 18 percent below last year’s levels while refinancing applications
increased 8.5 percent over the year as mortgage rates continued to ease.
Rates and refinancing
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgages accounted for 90 percent of new US home
loans at the end of last year, according to ICE Mortgage Technology. Almost
two-fifths of all US mortgages were originated in 2020 or 2021, ICE data show,
as the low interest rates during the pandemic allowed many Americans to
refinance their home loans.
Higher interest rates also raise rental costs. Many people prefer to rent
instead of buying given median house prices have been slow to adjust. In
this context, the combination of higher rates and still-scarce housing
supply creates a vicious circle that complicates central banks’ fight
against inflation. US monthly home prices continued to rise in October
compared with a year ago, with shelter contributing to one-third of the
change of consumer prices in November.
If the Fed starts rate cuts this year, as policymakers and market
participants project,
mortgage rates will continue to adjust, and pent-up housing demand could be
unleashed. A sudden increase, as the result of rapid rate cuts, could
offset any improvements in housing supply, causing prices to rebound.
Source: imf.org
The 2023 housing market faced one of the same roadblocks we saw in 2022: mortgage rates were too high for home sales growth. Now that we’re in 2024, the Federal Reserve‘s rate hike cycle is over, so let’s look at what that means for housing demand and home prices. However, a yearly forecast has limitations and in this crazy housing and economic cycle, if people give you a yearly forecast without guidance as variables change, you’ll be dealing with stale data. Every Saturday I publish a weekly housing market tracker with forward-looking data and insights so you can adjust quickly to market conditions.
Here’s my forecast for 2024:
For 2024, the 10-year yield range will be similar to 2023, but with a few different variables to watch.
A key level to watch for the 10-year yield is 3.37%. To go below this level last year, labor would need to break, so I borrowed Gandalf the Grey’s catchphrase: “You shall not pass.” And the 10-year yield did not pass that level in 2023!
However, if the labor or economic data gets weaker, we can break through that Gandalf line, which means 2.72% on the 10-year yield is in play for 2024. This could mean sub-5% mortgage rates if the spreads get better — a win for the housing market.. If the spreads are still bad, mortgage rates will be between 5%-6%. If the 10-year yield gets above 4.25%, the U.S. economy has outperformed again, as it did in Q3 when it grew at 5% and jobless claims fell.
Here is a chart of the 10-year yield with the inflation growth rate data tied to it for 2023:
Now let’s talk about mortgage rates!
The spread between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates can get better in 2024, which means mortgage rates could be 0.625% to 1% lower next year. For example, mortgage rates would be under 6% today if the spreads were normal. Instead, they closed 2023 at 6.67%. If the spreads get anywhere back to normal and the 10-year yield gets to the lower end of the range in 2024, we can have sub-5 % mortgage rates in 2024.
With the Fed no longer in hiking mode, any economic weakness on the labor side is a better backdrop to send mortgage rates lower. Unlike 2023, this year there are more positive variables that could send mortgage rates lower rather than higher.
If everything stays constant, 2024 home-price growth levels will repeat what happened in 2023: low single-digit national home-price gains.
What could make home prices grow faster than low single digits? If I am wrong and mortgage rates go lower for longer and we don’t get more new listings in 2024, then home prices can grow faster in 2024 because we will have the same issue as before: too many people chasing too few homes.
What could make home prices decline? This would happen if we saw a surge of stressed inventory and mortgage rates didn’t go low enough to handle that much new supply into the market. We had mortgage rates in a solid range between 3.75% and 4.75% for most of the previous decade, but that hasn’t been the case recently. So, this is something to consider only if we see an increase in stressed inventory.
To give an example of what I am talking about, from 2008 to 2011, new listings data ran between 250,000 and 400,000 each week, with the peak seasonal data at 370,000 and 400,000. We haven’t had new listings data break over 90,000 in the peak seasons of 2021, 2022 or 2023. So if we do see a push in stressed new listings we have to be on it right away and see how the supply and demand equilibrium works.
However, we won’t have this conversation until we see it in the weekly data. In this episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast I explain how fast the housing dynamics shifted after Nov. 9, 2022, with prices returning to all-time highs in months. This is why weekly data is important!
When we saw mortgage rates fall from 7.375% to 5.99% early in 2023, we got one of the most significant existing home sales prints ever, going from 4 million to 4.55 million. We need lower rates to get more consistent sales growth and to have one or two monthly existing home sales prints of 4.72 million or more, it’s going to take sub-6% mortgage rates with duration.
We will track the purchase application data weekly, however, I am only focused on that 4.72 million monthly print number for 2024 because the lack of affordability with rates still this high is impacting sales.
As long as mortgage rates go lower, the builders can sell homes because they can lower mortgage rates even more than the existing home sales market and they have a pipeline of homes to sell. They have 106,000 homes that they haven’t even started construction on yet, and only 78,000 new homes have been completed and are ready to sell. They will manage their supply slowly.
Looking at the economic cycle and the housing economy, we have a similar playbook going into 2024 as we did in 2023. Let’s look at that dynamic.
I raised the final flag in my six recession red flag model on Aug. 5, 2022. However, by Nov. 9, 2022, I saw that housing market dynamics had shifted and if I was right, the builders were about to get more positive about their business. Sure enough, the builders confidence survey started to grow again going into 2023.
As mortgage rates started rising toward 8%, the builders survey started to go lower, mostly due to smaller builders feeling the pinch. Now that rates have fallen again, this is a positive for the single-family housing market. The new home sales market means more to the economy because of construction jobs and big-ticket item purchases. In contrast, the existing home sales market is more about the transfer of commission and moving trucks.
People correctly keep an eye on the builder’s survey. However, the builder survey and new home sales rebounded to growth in 2023, and now, with rates almost down 1.5% for 2024, lower rates will help the builder survey again.
This is only for the single-family housing market, not the apartment market, which is heading into a decline in activity. This is something to watch on labor, as certain builders will not need as many people to build apartments. When rates stay too high for too long, you eventually impact future production.
We will only start talking about a recession when jobless claims break over 323,000 on the four-week moving average. We won’t talk about a recession today, or next year or even this decade until that happens. The history of economics has shown us that we need the labor market to break to have a job-loss recession. If you followed my work during COVID-19, you know my critical two takes about the labor market and how household balance sheets are much better now than ever. When jobless claims break that critical level, we will have a good discussion about the economy and the housing market, just not yet.
If the economy doesn’t have a credit event where lending gets tighter, the consumer should hold up in 2024, especially with lower mortgage rates. This means the homebuilders can sell more homes and keep construction workers employed longer. Falling construction employment is a staple of all job-loss recessions, and we have avoided that so far.
For 2024, I want to stress that the economic data can turn on a dime — both positive and negative — in ways that weren’t the case in the previous decade. Following the weekly tracker will be essential for the housing market and the economy. I track this stuff daily so you don’t have to!
The existing home sales market has spent the last 18 months with sales near great recession levels. Now it’s time for the Fed to give up on its covid-era housing economic policy and be pro-housing once again. It’s time to get U.S. housing off the COVID-19 policy and get sales growing.
Source: housingwire.com