Mortgage rates dropped to 6.63% this week, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Rates for 30-years fixed-rate mortgages were 6.69% last week, dropping by 0.06 percentage points.

Rates for 15-year mortgages also dropped slightly from 5.96% last week to 5.94% this week. Both 15-year mortgages and 30-year mortgage rates are still higher than they were last year.

A year ago, 30-year mortgages sat at 6.09%, on average, while 15-year mortgages averaged 5.14%, Freddie Mac reported.

“Mortgage rates have been stable for nearly two months, but with continued deceleration in inflation we expect rates to decline further,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater explained.

“The economy continues to outperform due to solid job and income growth, while household formation is increasing at rates above pre-pandemic levels. These favorable factors should provide strong fundamental support to the market in the months ahead.”

As mortgage rates drop, you may decide it’s the right time to finally buy a home. To find the right mortgage for your needs, Credible can show you multiple mortgage lenders all in one place and provide you with personalized rates within minutes.

HOMEOWNERS INSURANCE RATES ON THE RISE, MAINLY DUE TO INCREASE IN NATURAL DISASTERS

Home prices are lowering in some major cities

After remaining for high most of the year, home prices are dropping slightly in some metro areas. 

Data from a recent S&P report showed prices in 12 out of 20 metro areas decreasing. This decrease in prices has led some households to move across state lines in search of more affordable areas.

Charlotte, Providence and Indianapolis saw the largest increase in buyers as they fled high-cost cities, stated a Zillow report.

Households that made these moves found homes were $7,500 less, on average, than where they left.

Cities that saw the highest outflow in households included Chicago, San Diego and Cincinnati. These metro areas often have higher housing costs and less robust economies, Zillow found.

If you think you’re ready to shop around for a home loan, consider using Credible to help you easily compare interest rates from multiple lenders, all without affecting your credit score.

HOMEOWNERS MOVING ACROSS STATE LINES, SEEKING AFFORDABILITY, FIND IT IN CERTAIN CITIES

It’ll be years before homes are affordable for the average buyer

The housing market is trudging toward recovery, largely thanks to mortgage interest rates dropping in recent months.

“The surge in pending home sales and new home sales, both determined by contract signings in the early stages of the buying process, indicates increased participation from buyers in the market,” explained Realtor.com Economist Jiayi Xu in response to Freddie Mac’s recent mortgage rates update. “Simultaneously, the recent rise in listing activity suggests that sellers are closely monitoring mortgage rates and adjusting their selling strategies accordingly.”

Potential homebuyers won’t see a full recovery anytime soon, however. JP Morgan experts predict that the real estate market will become affordable again about three and a half years from now. This is largely dependent on continued interest rate decreases.

“Despite the promising increase in listing activity, inventory is likely to remain low as sellers may not respond as swiftly as anticipated. In other words, a more substantial improvement in mortgage rates is necessary to attract more sellers to the market,” Xu said.

Until rates drop more substantially, mortgage payments are likely to stay high. In November 2023, the average monthly mortgage payment was $2,198, up from $1,993 a year earlier, a National Association of Realtors report found.

If buying a home is your near future, make sure you’re getting the best mortgage lender and rates with the help of Credible. Credible helps you compare rates and lenders and get a mortgage pre-approval letter in minutes.

JUST OVER 15% OF HOME LISTINGS WERE CONSIDERED AFFORDABLE IN 2023: REDFIN

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

Source: foxbusiness.com

Apache is functioning normally

Goldman analysts lowered their 2008 earnings estimate for JP Morgan Chase to $3.30 from $3.44 yesterday after the bank warned investors it could lose $450 million on home equity loans during the first quarter alone, according to a report by Marketwatch.

Last quarter, Chase reported $248 million in write-offs tied to home equity loans, up from $150 million in the third quarter and $51 million in the fourth quarter of 2006.

The net charge-off rate climbed to 1.05 percent in the fourth quarter from 0.65 percent in the third quarter, more than quadrupling the 0.24 percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2006.

Now factor in plummeting home prices and high loan-to-value ratios and you’ve got a huge problem, especially with “walking away” becoming all the rage these days.

Chase attributed the escalating losses to an over-reliance on Fico scores and underlying property values, along with layered risk and direct vs. indirect loan origination channels.

About a month ago, the New York-based bank reduced the maximum loan-to-value on second mortgages via the wholesale channel to 85 percent in many areas, while stamping out loans at or above 100% LTV.

According to a slide from Chase’s Investor Day presentation held on Wednesday, the bank originated $48.3 billion in home equity loans in 2007, a slim decline from the $51.9 billion originated in 2006 given the high-risk environment.

And as of the end of January, Chase still had $15.2 billion in CMBS exposure, $6.3 billion in Alt-A exposure, $2.4 billion in subprime and subprime CDO exposure, and $5.4 billion of CDO warehouse and unsold positions.

Shares of Chase were off $1.52, or 3.58%, to $40.92 in late trading Friday, not far from their 52-week low of $37.66.

Below is the delinquency rate chart for home equity loans in Chase’s portfolio:

(top photo: celinet)

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

Apache is functioning normally

New York-based Rithm Capital, the parent company of Newrez, announced on Friday it completed the acquisition of Sculptor Capital Management for $719.8 million. 

The deal was made public four months ago and created a dispute among investors to take the firm, leading Rithm to increase its price by 14% compared to the original bid. The transaction also created legal battles with Sculptor’s shareholders and founders, including Daniel S. Och, but the parties settled the cases in court.

In a special meeting on Thursday, Sculptor’s stockholders of 89% of the Class A common stock and 97% of Class B common stock voted in favor of the agreement with Rithm. They also approved the compensation to directors to consolidate the deal. As a result, Sculptor will be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange

Michael Nierenberg, chairman, CEO and president of Rithm, said in a statement that the company plans to “create a superior global asset management business focused on delivering significant, long-term value for our shareholders and fund investors.” 

Rithm announced on July 24 its plans to acquire Sculptor for $11.15 per share. After the deal was public, Rithm faced competition from a group of investors, including Boaz Weinstein, Bill Ackman, Marc Lasry and Jeff Yass. They offered $13.50 per share.

It resulted in Och and other founders filing lawsuits opposing the deal, saying it aimed to protect current CEO Jimmy Levin rather than maximize shareholder value.  

Rithm only received the blessing of Sculptor’s founder at the end of October after increasing its price to $12.70 per share. It had previously increased to $12 per share without success. 

Rithm reported a $194 million GAAP net income in the third quarter of 2023 — lower than the $357.4 million the prior quarter. The company targets transitioning from a real estate investment trust to a global asset manager. 

Sculptor is relevant to this plan because it will bring to Rithm $34 billion of assets under management, including real estate, credit and multi-strategy investing spectrum. 

Citi acted as the exclusive financial advisor to Rithm. PJT Partners was the financial advisor to the Sculptor’s special committee. The sculptor’s financial advisor was JP Morgan Securities LLC.   

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

You’ve heard it before, especially if you regularly read or listen to The Best Interest:

  • Stocks are volatile in the short run and rewarding in the long run
  • Bonds are less volatile (good) but less rewarding (bad)

It’s a perfect example of investing’s golden relationship between risk and reward.

The two charts we’ll look at today wonderfully present stock and bond behavior. First, let’s baseline ourselves in bonds.

The chart below shows bond data (the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate bond index) from 1976 through 2022. The gray bars show full calendar year returns in the bond index. The red dots, however, show the largest intra-year decline (“peak to trough”) each year. For example, let’s look at 1997. The bond index finished the year up 10%. But the index was down 2% from its previous high at one point during the year.

Most years have had single-digit returns – the average is +6.6%. And the average intra-year decline has been (-3.4%). 2022 is quite the outlier.

For what it’s worth, this data set syncs up pretty closely with the last ~40 years of declining interest rates (see below). As rates fall, the values of existing bonds increase. When rates rise, the values of existing bonds decrease (see 2022). Multiple decades of steady interest rate declines (e.g. 1980 to 2021) lead to multiple decades of positive bond returns. The future might not be so steady.

Stock data looks much choppier than bond data. The chart below again shows annual returns (in gray bars) against intra-year draw downs (red dots), but this time for the S&P 500 stock index.

The average annual return is +8.6%. But the average intra-year decline is (-14.3%)!

**Important note – JP Morgan does not include dividends in this chart, which I think is a mistake. Including those dividends, the average annual return is more like ~11% during this period, while the intra-year decline would remain the same.

A year like 2003 serves as a perfect example. Down (-14%) at one point during the year. That feels pretty bad. Yet, at year-end, the S&P was up +26%. Amazing!

Stocks provided significantly better returns than bonds over this period. In total, stocks returned ~6500% (65x), whereas bonds returned ~2000% (20x). A triple-up win for stocks.

But at what cost? Stocks saw an average of (-14.3%) annual drawdowns. That’s roughly the same as bonds’ worst year (-15%).

And stocks had 5 unique annual drawdowns of 30% or more. To put that in dollar terms, 30% of a $500K stock allocation is $150,000. Imagine, once per decade, watching $500K become $350K?!

Granted, investors would be utterly unharmed if they followed conventional wisdom and stayed the course. But that’s much harder done than said. As we’ve discussed countless times, it’s one thing to say, “Stay the course when you’re down $150,000”…and it’s another thing to actually do it.

Our brains hate hanging on for dear life, so we’re tempted to cut bait and “sell to survive.” Literally. Selling our wounded stock position so our mental health can survive. It’s logical human behavior. And terrible investor behavior.

I think he was being chased by a bear…

So like a broken record player, we revolve back around to topics like diversification, goals-based investing, etc. Today’s data show why most investors should own stocks and bonds (and possibly other uncorrelated assets). Some assets to grow (even if volatile), and other assets to provide stable near-term spending.

That brings us to the final chart: the same presentation as before, but now for a 60% stock, 40% bond portfolio (through 2022). And, in this chart, JP Morgan does assume dividends in the stock portion of the portfolio.

This 60/40 data shows an average annual return of +9.9%, and an average drawdown of (-7.7%). Solid returns and not too much pain along the way. Maybe there’s something to this diversification after all?

I hope your drawdowns are small, swift, and occur only when you’re not paying attention. But don’t bet your portfolio on it!

Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed this article, join 7000+ subscribers who read my 2-minute weekly email, where I send you links to the smartest financial content I find online every week.

-Jesse

Want to learn more about The Best Interest’s back story? Read here.

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Source: bestinterest.blog

Apache is functioning normally

You may have thought that mortgage lenders were raking it in, what with the record low mortgage rates currently on offer.

But 2011 was actually the slowest 365 days in mortgage lending since the year 2000, according to figures released by Inside Mortgage Finance.

The company noted that residential home loan origination volume totaled an estimated $1.35 trillion last year, which was down a hefty 17.2 percent from 2010.

The company attributed the weakness to a soft second quarter, when just $280 billion in new mortgages were extended to homeowners.

That was actually the weakest quarter since the end of 2008, when you know what hit the fan.

Around that time, interest rates on the popular 30-year fixed were close to 5%, which is more than a point above where they stand now.

Couldn’t Keep Up With Demand

Interestingly enough, many mortgage lenders have complained about having too much business in recent years, so it’s unclear if they actually wanted more volume.

It wasn’t long ago that Chase supposedly inflated its refinance rates to temper demand, partially because of reduced staff and more manpower directed toward things like loan modifications.

And back in 2009, Wells Fargo complained about the quality of the loan applications it was underwriting, hinting that it may have been hurting them more than it was helping.

Wells Fargo Top Mortgage Lender in Fourth Quarter 2011

Still, the San Francisco-based bank has retained its position as the top mortgage lender in the nation. The company originated $120 billion in mortgages during the final quarter of 2011.

Their market share increased from 27 percent in the third quarter to 30 percent in the fourth quarter. Wow.

They were followed (distantly) by JP Morgan Chase, which brought in a paltry $42 billion.

Coming in third was Citibank with $23 billion in mortgage loan volume. The New York City-based bank pushed ahead of Bank of America, which fell to fourth on $22.4 billion in loan volume.

Bank of America Mortgage Market Share Lower With Countrywide

Yes, you read that right.

Somewhat amazingly, Bank of America’s share of the mortgage market has actually fallen since it scooped up former mortgage lending giant Countrywide Financial.

BofA’s share of the mortgage market has dwindled to roughly six percent, which is less than the 7.8 percent share held back in 2007, before the Countrywide acquisition.

They gave Wells Fargo a run for their money in 2010, but soon after eliminated both their wholesale and correspondent businesses, with the latter providing about half of production.

Now the bank is left with a more focused retail arm, which makes mortgages in-house for its banking customers.

In the long run it’ll probably serve them better given how badly they’ve fared thus far. And they’ve got enough to worry about, what with all those foreclosures…

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

Apache is functioning normally

Regarding acquiring Specialized Loan Servicing for a purchase price of approximately $720 million, Nierenberg added that it “helps grow our third-party servicing business and reinforces our position as one of the leading nonbank mortgage servicers in the country.”

The company expects to close the deal in the first quarter of 2024. 

To support its acquisitions, Rithm had $1.9 billion of total cash and liquidity at the end of the third quarter.

Challenging origination landscape

Rithm is working on a spin-off in the mortgage business, which includes origination and servicing. Nierenberg said the company “is not giving up on the mortgage company,” but is trying to figure out a cheap way to manufacture more capital. 

Rithm, the parent company of Newrez, saw its mortgage business deliver a combined pre-tax income of $412.5 million in the third quarter, compared to $327 million the previous quarter. 

Originations delivered only $7 million in profits, compared to $8.7 million in Q2. Mortgage volumes increased to $11 billion in Q3, higher than the $9.9 billion the previous quarter. Gain-on-sale margins improved to 1.28% in Q3, up from 1.23% in Q2.

Analysts at BTIG said the company’s volume in Q3 is comparable to the production at JP Morgan in the period and around half of what they expect from market leader United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM). 

We continue to think it’s likely benefited on the margins from Wells Fargo‘s exit from the correspondent channel this year, although it may be easier to see that appear in earnings if/when mortgage rates fall,” the analysts wrote in a report.

Rithm’s mortgage production is expected to be between $7 billion and $9 billion in Q4. According to the company, market conditions will remain challenging through 2024, and Rithm will continue to evaluate all operational processes to improve efficiencies and cost. 

“We’re looking at our expenses; we’re looking at retail, clearly because that business doesn’t make any money right now when you think about volumes and cost to run that business,” Nierenberg said. “But overall, we’re happy with the asset that we have; we just have to figure out a way to generate more capital.” 

Expectations for servicing 

Loan servicing contributed $444.5 million in profits during Q3, compared to $357.3 million in Q2. 

The company’s mortgage servicing rights portfolio (MSRs) totaled $595 billion in unpaid principal balance (UPB) as of Sept. 30, down from $598 billion as of June 30. 

The acquisition of Specialized Loan Servicing adds approximately $136 billion in UPB, including $85 billion in third-party servicing.  

Nierenberg said that amid the expectation of new rules, banks have to hold more capital against certain assets, which “could create opportunities for us” in the mortgage-servicing rights space. 

“I just want to point out, as we think about capital deployment, we do things strategically, where we think we’re gonna have 15% to 20% returns on our capital. If we see a package of MSRs that we think we could achieve those returns, we’ll have a hard look at it.”

The company’s stock traded at $9.35 on Thursday morning, up 4.41% after the earnings report. 

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Nestled within the larger Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area, Plano has evolved into one of Texas’ most appealing cities.

The question, “Is Plano Texas a good place to live?” has become prevalent among many seeking to relocate within Texas. Through an exploration of its residential, educational and recreational facets, this comprehensive study seeks to provide insights into living in Plano, Texas.

Cost of living

One of the vital concerns of anyone looking to relocate is the cost of living. In Plano, the cost of living index sits slightly above the national average. Housing, being a significant factor, sees median home prices and average monthly rents higher than in other cities within Texas. However, when compared to downtown Dallas or Fort Worth, Plano offers a more affordable residential experience. Moreover, the absence of state income tax in Texas lightens the financial load for Plano residents.

Education

Plano prides itself on its robust educational framework, with the Plano Independent School District leading the charge. Offering numerous highly-rated public schools, including the notable Plano Senior High School, the city ensures a quality education for its youth. Moreover, the proximity to various colleges and universities within the Dallas area enriches the educational landscape further.

Employment opportunities

The city serves as a corporate hub, hosting headquarters of renowned companies like JP Morgan Chase and Frito Lay. This influx of corporate entities has bolstered job opportunities in Plano, particularly for young professionals. The median household income in Plano is noticeably higher than the national average, making it an economically attractive destination.

Safety

Ranked among the safest cities in America, Plano boasts a low violent crime rate. The sense of a safe community enhances the appeal of living in Plano, Texas, especially for families.

Recreational amenities

Recreational options abound in Plano. From the historical charm of Downtown Plano to the upscale shopping and dining experiences in Legacy West and West Plano, there’s something for everyone. Nature enthusiasts often find solace in outdoor spaces like the Arbor Hills Nature Preserve. Moreover, the plethora of parks, golf courses and hiking trails offer respite from city life.

Accessibility

The well-structured Dallas Area Rapid Transit (DART) system extends to Plano, facilitating easy commutes to Dallas and other parts of the Dallas Metroplex area. Additionally, the proximity to major highways and the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport enhances Plano’s accessibility.

Weather

Residing in Tornado Alley, Plano does experience extreme weather conditions, including tornadoes and heavy rain. The city experiences a warm climate with an average high temperature that is often on the higher side. However, the generally mild winters could be appealing to those from colder climates.

Neighborhoods

Plano is home to several affluent areas with great neighborhoods offering a mix of new construction and well-maintained older homes. Whether it’s the historic charm of Downtown Plano or the upscale allure of West Plano, finding your dream home in one of the best neighborhoods is achievable.

Social life

For those who revel in social activities, Plano has much to offer. From live music events to a thriving date night scene with great restaurants, the city provides an engaging social life. The myriad coffee shops and eateries offer spots for social interactions and the enjoyment of great food.

Community

The city has a higher population density compared to other Texan cities, yet Plano residents enjoy a tight-knit community feel. Various cultural events and community programs are commonplace, promoting inclusivity and a sense of belonging among the residents.

Comparatively cheaper living

When the cost of living in Plano is pitted against Dallas, Plano emerges as a more cost-effective option. Despite its affluent aura, the cost of living in Plano, particularly housing and property tax, tends to be lower than in Dallas, thus making it a more economical choice for those looking to live comfortably.

Conclusion: Living in Plano

Taking into account the excellent school system, robust job market, and the safe, friendly neighborhoods, Plano Texas proves to be a promising land for families, young professionals, and retirees alike.

The blend of urban sophistication, cultural richness and recreational variety makes living in Plano an enriching experience. With its continual growth over the past few years, Plano is not only a substantial economic contributor within Texas but also a warm, welcoming home to its residents.

Ready to plant roots in your Plano paradise? Take a look at our available apartments for rent.

Source: rent.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Real estate investment trust Rithm Capital Corp. has increased its offer to acquire Sculptor Capital Management Inc. by 7.62% to $676 million amid competition from a group of investors and a dispute among the shareholders at the asset management firm. 

On July 24, Rithm said it struck a deal to acquire the New York-based company for $639 million, or $11.15 per Class A share. The transaction brings to Rithm Sculptor’s $34 billion of assets under management, including real estate, credit and multi-strategy investing spectrum. 

The July deal led to a dispute among the shareholders at the asset management firm as Sculptor also received a $12.76 per-share bid from a consortium of investors, including Boaz Weinstein, Bill Ackman, Marc Lasry and Jeff Yass.  

Sculptor said it still prefers the deal with Rithm due to the closing certainty. However, it put pressure on Rithm to increase its bid. 

The new offer announced Thursday brings the price per share to $12. The boards of directors of both companies have unanimously approved it, the parties said.  

In a statement, Marcy Engel, chairperson of Sculptor’s board of directors, said they are focused on “consummating a transaction that maximizes value and certainty of closing for Sculptor stockholders.”

Michael Nierenberg, chairman, CEO and president of Rithm, said the deal creates a “superior asset management business.”

All regulatory approvals necessary to close the deal have been received. A share of 85% of the fund investors consented to the agreement, but this is subject to change at closing. Sculptor’s board recommended that stockholders vote for the deal at a special meeting on Nov. 16.

Sculptor anticipates that the transaction will close in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Citi acted as the exclusive financial advisor to Rithm. PJT Partners was the financial advisor to Sculptor’s special committee. Sculptor’s financial advisor was JP Morgan Securities LLC.  

Source: housingwire.com