It’s no secret that 2023 was a difficult year to buy a home. With mortgage rates briefly topping 8% and home prices breaking records throughout the year, many would-be sellers simply decided not to bother listing their homes, exacerbating already tight inventories.
New data from the U.S. Census Bureau published last week shows how drastically housing inventory has changed since 2020, while weekly data from Altos Research offers some insights on where it goes from here.
Census Bureau data on housing inventory estimates details two cycles this decade – the onset of the pandemic and the rise of interest rates – that have been catastrophic for the nation’s for-sale housing inventory.
2020-2021: The shock to the system
The onset of the pandemic and government lockdowns sparked a frenzy for homes, especially those away from crowded downtowns and with ample space for home offices and homeschooling. Prospective homebuyers were armed with low interest rates, paused student loan payments and stimulus checks.
The number of owner-occupied homes skyrocketed, quickly depleting the number of vacant for-sale homes. Renters occupied fewer homes, and fewer vacant homes were reserved for them.
The number of homes “held off market” – second homes, vacation homes and others that are neither for-sale, for-rent or occupied – shrank. This could be because their owners snagged profits amid rapidly rising prices, because those who can afford second homes paused buying, or a combination of the two.
Seasonal housing, too, dropped considerably. This is likely due to the fact that seasonal housing – defined as homes intended for periodic occupancy such as for holiday resort guests or farm workers – could be profitably sold to meet soaring homebuyer demand and was not needed during the pandemic’s travel restrictions and weak travel demand.
Most of the trends begun in 2020 continued in 2021 except for renter-occupied homes, which rose above 2019 levels in the second half of the year. This was likely a reflection of the prolonged decline in vacant homes for sale, which made it difficult for would-be buyers to find a home to purchase.
Many of the same pandemic forces that set off the homebuying frenzy also fueled a frenetic pace of inflation. In 2022, the Federal Reserve began taking action to combat these market forces by raising interest rates, starting the second cycle of inventory changes.
2022-2023: The high-rate environment
Over two years, the Federal Reserve hiked rates 11 times for a total increase of 5.25 percentage points, the fastest pace of hikes in four decades. It has held rates at an effective rate of 5.33% in every meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee since July 2023, including in their meeting last week.
Mortgage rates followed suit, walloping buyers’ purchasing power. The sudden run-up in rates discouraged would-be sellers from listing their homes, as they would be faced with much higher monthly payments for the same size home were they to sell and buy another home – if they even qualified for the same size home as they currently own.
This squeezed inventory even further throughout 2022 and 2023, pushing home prices to record highs month after month.
The high-rate environment further pushed owner occupancy up while pushing homes held off market, seasonal housing and homes vacant for sale down. That the number of owner-occupied homes rose throughout 2023 – an abysmal year for home sales – shows just how tightly recent homebuyers are holding onto their low rates.
High rates, combined with low for-sale inventories and high home prices, have also resulted in a surge in home renters. There were nearly 2 million more renter-occupied homes in the fourth quarter of 2023 than in the same quarter of 2019.
The environment has also prompted many homeowners to list their homes for rent rather than sale. The number of homes vacant for rent in the fourth quarter of 2023 was up 4% since the same quarter five years ago, while the number of homes vacant for sale was down 36%.
When inventory bounces back
The extremes of the 2020s have dealt big blows to for-sale inventories. First the 2020-2021 housing frenzy took a big bite out of existing inventories, then the 2022-2023 streak of rate hikes kept would-be sellers from replenishing those inventories.
The 2020s have also seen for-sale inventory siphoned from second homes, vacation homes and seasonal homes. Homebuilders, too, have added to for-sale inventory, pushing the total number of homes in the U.S. up 8.7% since the fourth quarter of 2018. But none of these valves have alleviated the shortage of for-sale homes or the resultant high home prices.
The majority of homes that would be up for sale are being held by owners with low mortgage rates who would rather stay put or rent than sell, a phenomenon known as the “mortgage rate lockdown.” Plus, boomers are aging in place for longer, further depleting available housing stock. In fact, the number of owner-occupied homes is at an all-time high, while the percentage of homes that are owner-occupied is well above pre-pandemic levels.
The only apparent change that could induce significant for-sale inventory back into the market, then, is lower mortgage rates. How quickly would sellers return if rates were lower? We got an early test in December and January when the FOMC forecasted rate cuts in 2024.
As rates began falling steeply from October through December and hovered around 6.6% in January, new listings increased on a year-to-year basis in 14 of 15 weeks, according to data from Altos Research, which, like HousingWire, is owned by HW Media.
The data is an encouraging sign that owners with homes to sell will be responsive to mortgage rates, suggesting rate cuts this year could bring about a rapid uptick in homes for sale.
Less encouraging, however, is how soon the market might see rate cuts. Mortgage rates rose above 7% this week for the first time in 2024 following a strong jobs report and comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that suggested cuts were less imminent than many bond and equity traders had assumed.
Mortgage industry analysts have been watching and waiting to see what the Federal Reserve will do—or say—next about rate cuts. They’re hedging their bets that the Fed will cut rates this year and, as an indirect result, mortgage rates will fall, too, and help revive the housing market.
Watch for coverage of today’s Fed meeting in RISMedia’s Daily News tomorrow.
Economic data plays a key role in the Fed’s timing, though. A key performance metric Fed officials and economists watch is the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which measures core inflation. PCE inflation (excluding food and energy costs) rose 0.2% in December from November’s 0.1%, and increased 2.9% from a year ago, according to data released Friday from the U.S. Commerce Department.
The annual rate of core inflation in December fell from 3.2%. That’s the lowest annual rate in nearly three years. Additionally, gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a pace of 3.3% in the fourth quarter, surpassing market expectations.
These strong economic readings pushed the 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates tend to track, up to 4.14% on Friday before flattening later in the day.
Fed officials have hinted in recent speeches that cooling inflation supports the case for rate cuts—but at a more measured pace than before.
As for how those cuts will drive mortgage rates, expect “slow and steady declines,” likely in the latter half of the year, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist with First American Financial.
“The Fed wants to see the long and variable lags of monetary policy so they can make their way through the economy before deciding on any rate cuts,” Kushi told RISMedia, noting that anything can happen between now and the end of the year to change the Fed’s stance. “I think that the Fed has emphasized that the path to rate cuts is highly uncertain, and they’re going to take a sort of data-driven, cautious approach.”
Several Fed officials have signaled a more cautious approach to rate cuts, dimming investors’ hopes of quick action.
During a virtual speech to the Brookings Institution on Jan. 16, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he believes the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy is “set properly” to bring down core inflation closer to the Fed’s target of 2%. However, Waller isn’t in a rush to cut rates until inflation not only reaches the Fed target rate, but stays there for a prolonged period.
“When the time is right to begin lowering rates, I believe it can and should be lowered methodically and carefully,” Waller said in his speech. “In many previous cycles, which began after shocks to the economy either threatened or caused a recession, the FOMC cut rates reactively and did so quickly and often by large amounts.
“This cycle, however, with economic activity and labor markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually to 2 percent, I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past.”
It didn’t take long for the markets to react to Waller’s comments. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped sharply after his speech by about 30 basis points since late December and is currently hovering near 4.1% after reaching a recent low at about 3.8%.
In separate remarks earlier this month, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who tends to be more hawkish, said a sustained march toward the 2% inflation goal will make it more likely to lower rates to prevent the Fed’s monetary policy from being too restrictive.
“In my view, we are not yet at that point. And important upside inflation risks remain,” Bowman said in her remarks, adding that she was still willing to raise the Fed funds rate in the future if inflation stalls or ticks up again. “Restoring price stability is essential for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.”
Mortgage industry looks to rate cuts to help spur loan activity
2023 was a painful year for housing. As mortgage rates soared near the 8% mark, existing-home sales cratered to their lowest level last year (4.09 million) since 1995 even as median home prices reached a record high of $389,800, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.
Hobbled by anemic loan originations and next-to-no refinance activity, mortgage lenders aggressively cut staff last year (especially back-office positions like underwriters and loan processors). Others merged with bigger players with strong cash positions. And some lenders threw in the towel altogether, closing up shop.
“Our data shows that your typical independent mortgage banker trimmed their employee count by more than 40% from the peak in 2021 to the most recent data points,” Mike Fratantoni, chief economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association, said in an interview with RISMedia.
Fratantoni said mortgage volume will be somewhat higher in 2024 in tandem with higher sales of new and existing homes. However, potential homebuyers—especially those with the headwind of having record-low mortgage rates—may be hesitant to make a move until rates hit a certain sweet spot.
“As we get to the low (6% range) at the end of this year and below 6% next year…that’s going to be enough to get people’s attention,” Fratantoni said.
Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage, points to a Fed rate cut as being a positive signal to potential homebuyers of an improving market. However, Cohn added that a notable drop in mortgage rates will likely push home prices higher due to higher demand, so buyers shouldn’t stay on the sidelines too long.
Existing-home sales fell to their lowest level in nearly 30 years in December—but that didn’t cool red-hot home prices, with the median price reaching an all-time high of $389,800, the National Association of REALTORS® reported Friday.
Existing-home sales—which include completed transactions for single-family homes, townhomes, condos and co-ops—declined 1% month over month in December and are down 6.2% compared to a year earlier, NAR’s latest sales index shows. But lower mortgage rates, which are now below historical norms, likely will set the stage for stronger sales in 2024, NAR predicts.
“The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in the upcoming months.”
But home buyers nationwide are still facing a dearth of options. Total housing inventory at the end of December was down 11.5% from November, remaining at historical lows. Many would-be sellers are reluctant to trade in their super-low mortgage rates from just a couple of years ago and make a move at today’s higher rates and home prices. This “lock-in effect” has been blamed for subduing housing inventory, along with sluggish new-home construction that economists say isn’t keeping pace with demographic needs.
With home prices continuing to surge, homeowners are watching their equity grow. Yun says 85 million homeowners saw gains in housing wealth last month. The average U.S. homeowner with a mortgage has built more than $300,000 in equity since their purchase date, according to CoreLogic’s equity report.
However, “the recent rapid, three-year rise in home prices is unsustainable,” Yun says. “If prices continue at the current pace, the country could accelerate into ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots.’ Creating a path towards homeownership for today’s renters is essential. It requires economic and income growth and, most importantly, a steady buildup of home construction.”
Homes Still Selling Fast, More Inventory Coming
Builders are trying to ramp up construction, but there are production swings from month to month. Housing construction fell 4.3% in December but remains above 1 million units, the Commerce Department reported this week. Single-family housing permits—a gauge of future construction—posted an uptick last month, indicating that more new inventory is on the way. Still, it’s likely to be a challenging year for new-home construction due to higher mortgage rates and tight monetary policy, says Alicia Huey, chair of the National Association of Home Builders.
“Moderating mortgage rates are expected to provide a boost to new-home construction in 2024, but an uptick in building material prices and a shortage of buildable lots and skilled labor are serious challenges for home builders,” adds Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB’s assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis.
In the existing-home market, homes continue to sell fast. Fifty-eight percent of those sold in December were on the market for less than a month, NAR’s latest research data shows. NAR has predicted a stronger housing market for 2024. Here are more key housing indicators from NAR’s December report:
Days on the market: Properties typically remained on the market for 29 days, up slightly from 26 days a year earlier.
First-time home buyers: First-time home buyers comprised 29% of sales, down from 31% in November.
All-cash sales: All-cash sales comprised 29% of transactions, up slightly from last year’s 28%. Individual investors and second-home buyers make up the biggest bulk of all-cash sales, accounting for 16%, NAR’s data shows.
Regional Breakdown
The following is a closer look at how existing-home sales fared across the country in December:
Northeast: Sales remained flat compared to November but were down 9.6% compared to a year earlier. Median price: $428,100, up 9.4% from the previous year.
Midwest: Sales fell 4.3% from the prior month, reaching an annual rate of 900,000. Sales are down 10.9% from last year. Median price: $275,600, up 5.9% from December 2022.
South: Sales fell 2.8% from November to an annual rate of 1.72 million. Sales are down 4.4% when compared to the prior year. Median price: $352,100, up 3.8% from one year ago.
West: Sales rose 7.8% from a month ago, reaching an annual rate of 690,000 in December. Sales are down 1.4% from the year prior. Median price: $582,000, up 4.8% from December 2022.
If you’re considering a loan on a home you own outright, it’s important to note that when you own your home without any current mortgage, its entire value is equity.
You can utilize this equity by securing a loan against the home’s worth. Multiple mortgage loan options are available, such as a cash-out refinance, home equity loan, or HELOC.
To make the most informed decision, delve deeper into each option and discover which suits your needs best.
Check your loan options. Start here
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Can I get a loan on a house that’s paid for?
Yes, you can get a loan on a home you own outright through a home equity loan, a home equity line of credit (HELOC), or a cash-out refinance.
A home equity loan allows you to borrow a fixed amount of money using your home as collateral and pay it back with interest over a set term. A HELOC, on the other hand, works like a credit card where you can borrow money as you need it up to a certain amount, and pay it back with interest.
When you take out a home equity loan or a HELOC, the lender will determine the amount of equity you have in your home and use that as collateral for the loan. The amount of equity you have is determined by the difference between the current value of your home and the outstanding balance on your mortgage
Cash-out refinancing allows you to borrow up to 80% of your home’s appraised value. You’ll repay the loan via monthly payments, just like you did before you paid off your mortgage balance
Keep in mind that taking out a loan on a paid-off house puts your home at risk if you are unable to make payments. If you default on the loan, the lender may foreclose on your home to recoup their losses.
So, before taking out a home equity loan, or HELOC, make sure you can comfortably make the monthly payments and understand the risks involved.
Verify your eligibility. Start here
Home equity loans for a paid-off house
Getting a loan on a house you already own lets you borrow against the value of your home without selling.
The type of loan you’ll qualify for depends on your credit score, debt-to-income ratio (DTI), loan-to-value ratio (LTV), and other factors. But assuming your personal finances are in good shape, you can likely choose from any of the following loan options that we summarized above.
Check your loan options. Start here
1. Cash-out refinance
Cash-out refinancing typically involves applying for a new mortgage to replace an existing one and borrowing cash from your home equity. When you already own your home outright, you aren’t paying off an existing mortgage. So most or all of the loan will come to you as a lump sum of cash.
You can typically borrow up to 80% of your home’s value using a cash-out refinance. However, with the VA cash-out refi, you could potentially get up to 100% of your home’s value. But only veterans and active-duty service members have VA loan eligibility.
Refinancing requires a home appraisal to measure your home’s market value. Unless your home is worth over $1 million, in which case you may be able to get an appraisal waiver. You’ll also pay closing costs, ranging between 2% and 5% of your loan balance.
You can pay closing costs out of pocket, or your lender might be willing to cover part of them in exchange for a higher interest rate. Alternatively, you could roll the closing costs into your loan balance.
Cash-out refinancing typically requires a credit score of at least 620. But a higher score (720 and up) will earn you a lower mortgage rate and help you save on interest costs.
2. Home equity loan
Another option is a home equity loan. As with a cash-out refinance, the amount you can borrow is based on your home’s value. Your loan terms will also depend on your credit score.
Homeowners can typically borrow up to 80% of their home’s equity with a home equity loan, which is also known as a second mortgage. However, some smaller banks and credit unions may allow you to pull out up to 100% of your equity.
Once approved, you’ll receive the entire loan amount in cash to use as you wish. Then you’ll repay the loan with interest by making monthly payments.
Home equity loans have higher interest rates than refinancing but lower interest rates than credit cards or personal loans. Since it’s an installment loan with a fixed interest rate, you’ll also have a fixed monthly payment.
Many lenders set their minimum credit score for a home equity loan between 620 and 700.
Verify your home equity loan eligibility. Start here
3. Home equity line of credit (HELOC)
A home equity line of credit is similar to a home equity loan. But rather than receiving a lump sum of cash, borrowers can draw from a line of credit as needed.
Home equity lines of credit often have a draw period of 10 years, meaning you can borrow from the credit line and repay it as often as you want within that time frame. After the draw period ends, there’s typically a repayment period of up to 20 years, during which you cannot borrow from the HELOC and must repay any outstanding balance with interest.
Check your HELOC options. Start here
A HELOC is a revolving account, like a credit card, so the amount borrowed determines your monthly payment. HELOCs usually have variable interest rates.
How to choose a loan on a home you own outright
Although you have several options when getting a loan on a home you own outright, the right mortgage depends on your specific goals. Here’s how to choose the best loan for your financial situation.
Talk to a lender about your mortgage options. Start here
You need cash to buy another property. You can purchase a new property with the aid of a cash-out refinance or a home equity loan. Both loans give you a lump sum payment up front and let you extend the fixed repayment term over a longer period of time. HELOCs can have higher interest rates and variable rates, leaving you with less certainty about your future rate and monthly payments HELOCs can have higher interest rates and variable rates, leaving you with less certainty about your future rate and monthly payments
You want to make home improvements. Home equity loans and HELOCs can be used to improve your home by making renovations or repairs. A home equity loan is great for a single project, while a HELOC is better for completing several projects over many years. You can also use a cash-out refi, but if you extend your loan term, you may pay more in interest over the life of the loan. This could make it harder for you to pay off your mortgage and add value to your home.
You want to consolidate high-interest debts. A cash-out refinance is a way to use home equity to pay off high-interest debts, such as credit card debt or personal loans. It can be a smart way to save money on interest, but it has risks, such as a risk of foreclosure and using a long-term asset, the value of your real estate, to pay for shorter-term needs
Regardless of the type of loan you choose, request quotes from at least three mortgage lenders to compare interest rates, discount points, and upfront fees. This will help you get the best deal.
Pros and cons of getting a loan on a home you already own
Leveraging a fully paid-off home for a loan comes with its own set of benefits and drawbacks. Here’s what you should consider before opting for a home equity loan.
Verify your home equity loan eligibility. Start here
Pros
Enjoy cost-effective borrowing. Home loans, when taken against a fully-owned property, typically offer more competitive interest rates than personal loans or credit cards. This is due to the house acting as a guarantee. Moreover, when opting for a new loan like a refinance, the associated closing expenses might be on the lower side
Unlock most of your home’s value. With no existing liens on your property, such a loan lets you access a large part of your equity. Lenders find this arrangement favorable, knowing you’ve successfully cleared a first mortgage. It’s important to keep in mind that the property’s valuation and your credit history will still determine the loan amount
Benefit from fixed-rate repayments. Such home loans usually come with fixed interest rates, ensuring consistent monthly outflows throughout the loan’s tenure
Flexibility in how you use your money. The loan amount can be channeled into various needs, be it home refurbishments, debt clearance, or any significant expenditure
Potential tax benefits. If the loan amount is reinvested into property enhancements, the interest might be deductible, giving it an edge over other financial products like personal loans or credit cards
Cons
Your property is on the line. If you default on the home equity loan repayments, you risk losing your fully owned home to foreclosure
It might cost more than other home loans. Generally, home equity loans have steeper interest rates compared to refinancing options and Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), making them potentially pricier
Be prepared for closing costs. Typically, these can range from 2% to 5% of the loan value, adding to the overall cost
Repayment terms might be rigid. Unlike some other options, such as HELOCs, which offer flexibility in repayment and re-borrowing, home equity loans have a fixed repayment schedule
Risk of the loan exceeding the property value. If you secure a loan on a home you own outright prior to a downturn in the property market, you might find yourself owing more than the property’s worth
3 things to consider before getting a loan on a home you already own
Considering taking a loan on a home you own outright? It’s an important decision with several facets to consider. Let’s delve into three key aspects:
1. Do you really need the liquidity?
What’s your primary motivation for tapping into equity? If you’re planning significant home improvements that could enhance its market value, that’s a strategic approach.
However, if the goal is to address other debts or make purchases that won’t hold their value, exercise caution. You wouldn’t want to jeopardize your home without good reason.
2. How much do you need to borrow and for how long?
The size of your loan will directly determine your monthly commitments. When considering a larger loan amount, it’s important to evaluate the monthly payments, interest rate, and the loan’s lifespan. If you’ve been enjoying a mortgage-free status for a while, it’s worth reflecting on whether you’re ready to recommit to a long-term debt.
3. Are you financially stable?
A few things to consider here. First, ensure that the monthly payments of the new loan align with your budget without overstretching. You should also ensure the offered rate is competitive and aligns with current market rates.
Lastly, always consider if there might be more suitable alternatives. Sometimes, continuing to save or exploring other financing avenues might be more beneficial.
Remember, leveraging your home’s equity is a significant step, and it’s essential to make decisions that resonate with your long-term goals and financial well-being.
How to get a loan on a home you own outright
Getting a home equity loan on home you own outright can be a smart financial decision, allowing you to tap into the equity you’ve built. It can be used for various purposes, such as home improvement, debt consolidation, or funding a significant purchase.
Verify your home equity loan eligibility. Start here
Here is a step-by-step guide on how to obtain a home equity loan on a fully paid-off house:
Determine your needs: Before applying for a home equity loan, identify why you need the loan and how much you want to borrow. Keep in mind that borrowing more than you need might lead to increased costs and interest rates.
Calculate your equity: Equity is the difference between your home’s current market value and any outstanding debts secured by the property. Since your house is paid off, your equity is equal to the current market value of your home. You can calculate your home’s equity using online tools or consulting a local real estate agent.
Check your credit score: A good credit score is essential for obtaining a home equity loan with favorable terms. Check your credit report for any errors and take steps to improve your credit score, if necessary, by paying off outstanding debts and ensuring timely bill payments.
Shop around for lenders: Research various financial institutions, including banks, credit unions, and online lenders, to find the best home equity loan terms and interest rates. Compare loan offers and choose the one that best suits your needs.
Gather necessary documents: Prepare the required documentation, including pay stubs, W-2 forms, bank statements, and tax returns.
Apply for the loan: Fill out the loan application and provide the required documentation. The lender will review your application and determine whether you qualify for the loan.
Close the loan: If you are approved for the loan, you will need to sign the loan documents and pay any closing costs or fees associated with the loan.
Once the loan is closed, you will receive the loan proceeds in a lump sum, which you can use for any purpose. Remember that you will be required to make monthly payments on the loan, and failure to do so could result in foreclosure on your home.
Alternatives to getting a loan on a home you own
Mortgages on your current home aren’t always necessary when buying a second home, vacation home, or investment property.
Verify your eligibility. Start here
“You may already have enough savings for a down payment without tapping into your equity,” says Jon Meyer, The Mortgage Reports loan expert and licensed MLO.
Before getting a loan on a home you own outright, look into mortgage loans that allow low down payments. Home buyers should consider the following types of loans.
Conventional loans
If you’re buying a new home to use as your primary residence, conventional loans allow financing with as little as a 3% down payment. You could qualify with a credit score as low as 620.
At least a 10% down payment is required for a vacation home, 20% to avoid private mortgage insurance, and 20-25% for a rental or investment property.
Check your conventional loan eligibility. Start here
FHA loans
FHA loans require only a 3.5% down payment, allowing FICO scores as low as 580. You cannot use an FHA loan to purchase a vacation home or an investment property. But you can use one to buy a multi-unit property with up to four units, live in one of the units, and rent out the others.
Check your FHA loan eligibility. Start here
VA loans
VA loans are the best option for eligible veterans and service members due to their low mortgage rates, lack of mortgage insurance, and no down payment. However, they can only be used for a vacation or investment home when buying a multi-unit property with up to four units. You can also use a VA loan to buy a second home, but only if the second home becomes your primary residence.
Check your VA loan eligibility. Start here
Interest rates for a second home
If you’re using cash from your equity to buy another home, make sure you understand how interest rates work on a vacation home, second home, and investment property.
Check your loan options. Start here
Since the new home won’t be your primary residence, you can expect a slightly higher mortgage rate. This rate increase protects the lender because these properties have a higher risk of default. That’s because mortgage lenders know that in the event of financial hardship, homeowners prioritize paying the mortgage on their primary home before a second home or investment property.
But although you’ll pay a higher rate when buying a second home, shopping around and comparing loans can help you save. To see the impact of higher mortgage rates, you can experiment with a mortgage calculator.
FAQ: Loan on a home you own outright
How do you get a loan on a home you own outright?
To obtain a loan on a home you own outright, you can approach a financial institution or lender and apply for a home equity loan, HELOC, or cash-out refinance. The process typically involves an assessment of your property’s value, a review of your credit history, and verification of your income sources. Once approved, you can use your home as collateral to secure the loan.
What does it cost to get a loan on a house you own outright?
The costs associated with getting a loan on a house you own outright can vary based on the lender and the type of loan. Common expenses include appraisal fees to determine the home’s value, origination fees, title search fees, and potential closing costs. If you’re considering a reverse mortgage, there might be additional fees and insurance costs involved.
How much can you borrow against a house if you owe more than it’s worth?
If you owe more on your home than its current market value, you’re in a situation known as being u0022underwateru0022 on your mortgage. In such cases, borrowing additional funds against your home can be challenging. Lenders typically want the home’s value to exceed the loan amount to minimize their risk. However, some government programs might assist homeowners in this situation, but a reverse mortgage might not be an option unless there’s sufficient equity in the home.
What is the maximum amount I can borrow against a home that I own outright?
Typically, for home equity loans, lenders allow you to borrow up to 80-90% of your home’s value. But the maximum amount you can borrow against a home you own outright depends on several factors, including the home’s appraised value, your age (especially if considering a reverse mortgage), current interest rates, and lender-specific guidelines.
Should you mortgage the house you own?
Owning your home outright provides a valuable equity cushion, and it’s exciting when you no longer shoulder the burden of monthly mortgage payments. The good news is that you don’t have to sell your home to access your equity.
Using a cash-out refinance, home equity loan, or home equity line of credit, homeowners can pull cash from their equity and use the money for many different purposes.
Make sure you understand the pros and cons of each type of financing and choose the best one for you based on your specific goals.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Average mortgage rates fell moderately yesterday. That was a bit of a surprise (though a welcome one) because yesterday’s inflation report would normally have pushed them higher. Read on for why markets might have reacted unexpectedly.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might fall. But these early mini-trends often switch direction or speed as the hours pass — as we saw yesterday.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.015%
7.03%
-0.07
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.28%
6.31%
-0.1
Conventional 20-year fixed
6.91%
6.93%
-0.065
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.09%
6.125%
-0.14
30-year fixed FHA
5.875%
6.545%
-0.3
30-year fixed VA
5.99%
6.14%
-0.085
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.31%
7.56%
-0.005
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Yesterday’s fall in mortgage rates showed markets continuing to have faith in a “soft landing,” which will occur if we continue to see falling inflation together with a resilient economy. Indeed, it suggests that faith can’t be shaken even by occasional unfriendly data.
I think a soft landing remains the most likely scenario for 2024.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
FLOAT if closing in 15 days
FLOAT if closing in 30 days
FLOAT if closing in 45 days
FLOATif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes tumbled to 3.93% from 4.04%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices increased to $74.42 from $72.80 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices climbed to $2,065 from $2,036 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — inched lower to 73 from 75. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to decrease. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Yesterday
I suspect that Wall Street has bought the narrative of a soft landing (see above) and, for now, is prepared to stick to it through thick and thin. That’s my only real explanation for why mortgage rates fell yesterday despite an unfriendly inflation report.
True, some saw the report as less unfriendly than others. The New York Times (paywall), for example, reported it under the headline, “Price Increases Tick Higher, but Show Moderation.”
But the consumer price index (CPI) was undeniably worse than expected. And that would normally exert some upward pressure on mortgage rates. Still, let’s not give this gift horse too close a dental inspection.
Today
Producer price indexes (PPIs) are typically less important than CPIs. But they still sometimes affect mortgage rates.
Today’s PPI showed factory-gate and wholesale prices rising more slowly than expected. And that would normally be good for mortgage rates. However, as we saw yesterday, markets don’t always follow such “rules.”
Next week
Rather like this week, next week starts slowly but contains an important economic report. Things are especially quiet on Monday because bond markets are closed for Martin Luther King Day. And closed bond markets mean mortgage rates shouldn’t move. (So, we shall not be publishing this daily report on Monday.)
Tuesday’s similarly dull with no economic reports scheduled for release.
However, Wednesday is potentially next week’s big day for mortgage rates, led by the retail sales report for December. But, after that, things tail off again.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Jan. 11 report put that same weekly average at 6.66%, up from the previous week’s 6.62%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the last quarter (Q4/23) and the following three quarters (Q1/24, Q2/24 and Q3/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Dec. 19 and the MBA’s on Dec. 13.
Forecaster
Q4/23
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Fannie Mae
7.4%
7.0%
6.8%
6.6%
MBA
7.4%
7.0%
6.6%
6.3%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Morgan Stanley’s home price outlook is unchanged, but it does see something new in affordability, after a painful year for most homebuyers, as mortgage rates bit in a way they haven’t since the 1980s. James Egan, the bank’s co-head of U.S. securities products research, crunched the data on mortgage rates falling from their recent 8% peak to the 6% range, and sees affordability improving as early as next month to a point unseen since February 2021, which was less than halfway through the pandemic housing boom.
This is needed since “home prices have once again broken through to a new record high,” the note said. Egan and his team cited data showing October’s year-over-year increase of 4.8%. The catch, they say, is that mortgage rates decreased more than 50 basis points in December and close to 70 basis points the prior month. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is sitting at 6.8%—much lower than October’s 23-year high, but more than double the 3% range that put a floor under the pandemic era housing boom.
Mortgage rates will also support Morgan Stanley’s forecast from November, which sees prices mildly declining through 2024. “While home prices continue to climb, as these lower rates filter through our affordability calculations the pace of deterioration has slowed to its most benign levels since 2Q21,” the bank’s strategists wrote. “If rates were to hold at these levels, [year-over-year] affordability could improve as soon as next month—which would be the first time this has been the case since February 2021.
“It is our expectation of increases here that has us continuing to expect a mild decrease in home prices in 2024 despite improved affordability and the growth in sales,” the strategists wrote. In late November, the investment bank forecast a 3% drop in nationwide home prices through this year.
If current mortgage rates were to hold, the strategists added, the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home would be $185 lower than Morgan Stanley’s existing metric. That would bring the average monthly payment to its lowest level since April. Nonetheless, affordability has already improved some.
The bank found that pending home sales and mortgage purchase applications “remain soft, but the pace of their decline has moderated significantly,” the note read, citing a 15% year-over-year decline in purchase applications and a 5% decline in pending home sales last month. But the investment bank predicts sales to increase this year, with existing-home sales jumping 2.5% year over year, and new-home sales 7.5%.
“While a faster improvement in affordability than we expected introduces upside risk to our forecasts…we expect the absolute levels of affordability and inventory to keep growth from accelerating too quickly,” they wrote.
Existing-home sales retreated to their slowest pace in more than a decade—largely a result of the lock-in effect, which refers to homeowners refusing to sell their homes for fear of losing their low mortgage rates. More than 90% of conventional borrowers have a mortgage rate less than or equal to 6%; nearly 87% have a rate less than or equal to 5%; almost 75% have a rate less than or equal to 4%, according to Morgan Stanley.
However, the lock-in effect seems to be showing signs of easing, as existing-home sales rose in November after five consecutive monthly declines. They’re still down more than 7% on an annual basis, and new-home sales are only up more than 1% year over year. But it is expected that supply will increase this year. For-sale inventory was “virtually unchanged,” in December, following seven consecutive months of declines. Months of supply, which refers to the number of months it would take for all the current homes for sale on the market to sell, has also increased to its highest level since May 2020, the note said.
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Reuters reported today that borrowers are chomping at the bit to refinance their existing home loans in a bid to take advantage of the super-low mortgage rates currently on offer.
Per the article, the amount of mortgages eligible for refinancing increased by roughly 50 percent to more than $3 trillion, based on estimates using Bear Stearns data.
What they mean by “eligible for refinancing” is loans that currently sport interest between 6 percent and 6.5 percent, which would likely benefit from the lower rates.
“There is pandemonium right now at the mortgage banks,” said Bob Walters, chief economist at Quicken Loans. “They are knee-deep in telephone calls,” he said.
Walters said Quicken Loans saw a 50 percent increase in loan applications after the recent Fed rate cut, while a LendingTree spokeswoman said refinance applications surged 230 percent to a record high.
I’ve heard the same from friends in the industry, who reported an influx of calls since Wednesday from borrowers looking to capture the lower rates.
Yesterday, Freddie Mac said mortgage rates fell for the fourth consecutive week to their lowest level in nearly four years, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 5.48 percent.
And earlier in the week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said refinances made up 66 percent of total applications, up from 62.7 percent the week prior, and much higher than the sub-50 percent share in mid-November.
But are those looking to refinance the borrowers who are in trouble, or just ordinary homeowners looking to take advantage of the lower rates?
I’m assuming that those in dire need of a refinance probably don’t have the home equity or documentation to lock in the low rates, considering the tough underwriting guidelines in place at the moment.
For a third day, average mortgage rates barely moved yesterday. But that’s good because it means last week’s big falls remain effectively uneroded.
First thing, it was again looking as if mortgage rates today might fall, perhaps modestly or moderately. However, that could change as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.125%
7.14%
-0.075
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.385%
6.415%
-0.1
Conventional 20-year fixed
6.975%
7%
-0.045
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.12%
6.145%
-0.065
30-year fixed FHA
5.98%
6.88%
-0.095
30-year fixed VA
6.165%
6.315%
-0.13
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.425%
7.675%
-0.035
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Every day that passes makes a corrective bounce (when mortgage rates rise as markets think they’ve got carried away) less likely. And it reinforces my hope that those rates are in a downward trend that could last well into next year.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
FLOAT if closing in 15 days
FLOAT if closing in 30 days
FLOAT if closing in 45 days
FLOATif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged lower to 3.90% from 3.92%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were mostly falling this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices climbed to $75.14 from $73.12 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices held steady at $2,049 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — ticked down to 77 from 78. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to decrease. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
The Federal Reserve
This morning’s Wall Street Journal (paywall) observed: “After their policy meeting last week, Fed officials released projections of at least three rate cuts [in general interest rates] next year. They have since been flummoxed that investors expect even faster and deeper cuts. The result: Confusion over when and how quickly the Fed might cut as the central bank tries to bring inflation down without a painful recession.”
This could turn into a real issue that could push mortgage rates higher, probably in the new year. Wall Street has a long and inglorious record of hearing what it wants the Fed to say rather than what the Fed actually says. And we’ve seen quite recently examples of sharp rises in mortgage rates when markets’ wishful thinking collides with reality.
Still, last week’s Fed meeting did deliver genuinely good news. And, even if mortgage rates rise when investors face the cold light of dawning reality, I’m optimistic that we’ll keep at least most of the recent gains. Just be aware that the path to lower mortgage rates is unlikely to be smooth.
Today
This morning’s economic reports cover existing home sales in November and consumer confidence in December. They’re both published too late for me to assess their likely impact on markets and mortgage rates.
They could push mortgage rates a little higher or lower, but they rarely move them far or for long.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow brings gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the third quarter of this year. This will be the third and final estimate for this number.
The second estimate put GDP growth at 5.2%, up from 2.1% in the second quarter. MarketWatch says that market expectations for tomorrow’s figure have recently been slightly scaled down to 5.1%.
If the actual number tomorrow is lower than 5.1%, that could drag mortgage rates lower. But, if it’s higher, that could push those rates upward.
Friday
We’re due November’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday. Markets might get nervous if that shows inflation rising more than expected because that could destroy the Fed’s new-found optimism.
More on what to expect from the PCE report tomorrow.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.
Freddie’s Dec. 14 report put that same weekly average at 6.95%, down from the previous week’s 7.03%. Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q4/23) and the following three quarters (Q1/24, Q2/24 and Q3/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Dec. 19 and the MBA’s on Dec. 13.
Forecaster
Q4/23
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Fannie Mae
7.4%
7.0%
6.8%
6.6%
MBA
7.4%
7.0%
6.6%
6.3%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
House hunters are wondering about one thing: interest rates.
Many prospective homebuyers are questioning: “Will interest rates go down in 2024?”
Mortgage rates are still high and housing inventory is limited. The situation has caused some people to hit the pause button with their search. If you are concerned right now that you may not be able to buy a home due to the current state of the economy, things could change soon.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s November 2023 Mortgage Finance Forecast predicts 30-year rates starting in 2024 at 7.1% and declining to 6.1% toward the end of the year.
Fannie Mae’s Housing Forecast for November, the average 30-year fixed rate during the first quarter of 2024 will be at 7.6%.
“The economy is now slowing from the otherwise robust first estimate of third-quarter growth,” said Douglas Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, in a statement on Nov. 1. “While many current owners with low mortgage rates will likely continue to be discouraged from listing their homes, we expect mortgage rates to trend modestly downward in 2024, which should help kickstart a gradual recovery in home sales into 2025.”
The National Association of Realtors also predicted that the 30-year mortgage rate will go under 7% in the second half of next year.
In the meantime, here are some items for your to-do list to improve your chances of achieving the goal of homeownership in 2024.
Increase your credit score.
Check your credit reports for accuracy and fix errors.
Maintain a financially healthy debt-to-income ratio by reducing debt.
Apply for first-time homebuyer programs to receive down payment assistance.
Save at least 20% toward the down payment to avoid private mortgage insurance on conventional home loans.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau recommends homebuyers to shop around and get quotes from mortgage lenders to compare rates, decide on the type of loan, and have a preferred lender to negotiate a lower rate.
Do not let the current state of interest rates be a hindrance to buying a home. Forecasters are estimating that mortgages will peak near 7% or 8% and then go down to 5% or 6% by the end of 2024.
After two years of sharp declines, existing-home sales are poised for improvement in 2024. But first, this slice of the housing market must weather the rest of a rocky year in 2023, with existing-home sales expected to end up 18% lower than those of 2022, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. That puts these transactions on track for their worst year in more than a decade.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun joined other leading housing analysts Tuesday at NAR’s virtual Real Estate Forecast Summit to discuss sales projections heading into 2024—and the experts agreed that better days are ahead for the real estate market.
Mortgage rates likely have peaked and are now falling from their recent high of nearly 8%. NAR predicts the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to average 6.3% in 2024; realtor.com® projects 6.5%. This likely will improve housing affordability and entice more home buyers to return to the market, Yun says. NAR’s data shows that rates near 6.6% enable the average American family to afford a median-priced home without devoting more than 30% of their income to housing, the threshold commonly used to measure affordability.
NAR is projecting that existing-home sales will rise 13.5% and new-home sales—which are up about 5% this year, defying market trends—could increase another 19% by the end of next year.
Markets to Watch in 2024
Some housing markets likely will experience higher sales upticks in 2024 than others. “Job growth will be a determinant for long-term housing demand,” Yun said.
NAR evaluated 100 of the largest U.S. metro areas to identify the markets with the largest pool of potential home buyers, the greatest likelihood for home price appreciation and more. The following markets have the most pent-up housing demand for 2024, according to NAR:
Danielle Hale, chief economist at realtor.com®, said at Tuesday’s summit that while she’s optimistic the housing market will improve in 2024, inflation is the issue that could derail optimistic real estate forecasts. If inflation doesn’t continue to improve, she said, it could raise long-term interest rates, which then could discourage more homeowners from selling and prolong the inventory bottlenecks in the market. Younger generations of home buyers may continue to be sidelined by higher housing costs and remain as renters. “That could have huge ramifications for the housing market,” Hale said. “The inflation data is very important to watch.”
Overall inflation has been easing, although “shelter inflation” continues to rise. The latest reading of the Consumer Price Index showed that inflation decreased to 3.1% in November. (The Federal Reserve’s target for the inflation rate is 2%.) Yun said an “oversupply” of new apartment units will hit many housing markets in the coming months, which could bring rental rates down and help better control inflation. Hopefully, he added, that will disincentivize the Fed to continue raising its short-term rates.
Regardless of inflation and mortgage rates, the 2024 housing market likely will remain challenging, particularly for first-time buyers who are unable to leverage the proceeds from a previous home sale, summit panelists noted. Plus, amid record low inventory, finding a home to buy will be a top hurdle. Homeowners remain reluctant to sell and give up the low mortgage rates they locked in two years ago. Further, homebuilders have underproduced for decades, leading to a shortage of 5 million housing units nationwide, according to NAR research.
However, current homeowners are in an envious position: With rapid home appreciation in recent years, owners will grow their nest egg in 2024. Even those in markets that are expecting slight dips next year will be able to weather the drop. Home price appreciation has jumped by about 5% over the past year alone. The typical homeowner has accumulated more than $100,000 in housing wealth over the past three years, NAR’s data shows. Plus, the wealth comparison between homeowners and renters continues to be significant: The typical homeowner has $396,200 in wealth versus $10,400 for renters, according to Federal Reserve data. “Over the long term, homeowners build wealth over time,” Yun said.