Stephanie Horan is a lead data analyst for the MarketWatch Guides Team, specializing in home buying and personal finance. Beginning her career in asset management and transitioning to data journalism, Stephanie is a Certified Educator of Personal Finance (CEPF®). She is passionate about translating data to provide digestible insights for a broad audience. Her studies have been featured in CNBC, Bloomberg and the New York Times, among many others.
Edited By:
Andrew Dunn
Andrew Dunn is a veteran journalist with more than a decade of experience in the business and finance arena. Before joining our team, Andrew was a reporter and editor at North Carolina news organizations including The Charlotte Observer and the StarNews in Wilmington. In those roles, his work was cited numerous times by the North Carolina Press Association and the Society of Business Editors and Writers. Andrew completed the business journalism certificate program from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Editor’s Note: Parts of this story were auto-populated using data from Curinos, a mortgage research firm that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our methodology here.
Mortgage rates rose slightly in the first week of 2024, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increasing by 0.10 percentage points, according to data from Curinos analyzed by MarketWatch Guides.
This slight increase took place in the midst of mixed economic signals. The Labor Department reported that employers added 216,000 jobs in December, exceeding economists’ expectations, while the stock market had a rocky start to the beginning of the year. Through last Friday, the S&P is down roughly 1% year-to-date.
Economists with the Mortgage Bankers Association are still confident that rates will fall over the coming months. The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for the end of January, and though rates may be held steady at that meeting, the board previously indicated that they expect three rate cuts throughout the year.
Here are today’s average mortgage rates:
30-year fixed mortgage rate: 7.12%
15-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.41%
5/6 ARM mortgage rate: 6.87%
Jumbo mortgage rate: 7.01%
Current Mortgage Rates
Product
Rate
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
7.12%
7.18%
-0.06
15-Year Fixed Rate
6.41%
6.40%
+0.01
5/6 ARM
6.87%
7.00%
-0.13
7/6 ARM
7.04%
7.15%
-0.11
10/6 ARM
7.15%
7.25%
-0.10
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
7.01%
7.07%
-0.06
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
6.78%
6.87%
-0.09
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
6.78%
6.86%
-0.08
Disclaimer: The rates above are based on data from Curinos, LLC. All rate data is accurate as of Friday, January 12, 2024. Actual rates may vary.
>> View historical mortgage rate trends
Mortgage Rates for Home Purchase
30-year fixed-rate mortgages are down, -0.06
The average 30-year fixed-mortgage rate is 7.12%. Since the same time last week, the rate is down, changing -0.06 percentage points.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $673.38 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. You’re paying less compared to last week when the average rate was 7.18%.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages are up, +0.01
The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed-mortgage is 6.41%, an increase of+0.01 percentage points compared to last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed-mortgage at a rate of 6.41% will cost approximately $866.17 per $100,000 borrowed. With the rate of 6.40% last week, you would’ve paid $865.62 per month.
5/6 adjustable-rate mortgages are down,-0.13
The average rate on a 5/6 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.87%, a decrease of-0.13 percentage points over the last seven days.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, commonly referred to as ARMs, are mortgages with a fixed interest rate for a set period of time followed by a rate that adjusts on a regular basis. With a 5/6 ARM, the rate is fixed for the first 5 years and then adjusts every six months over the next 25 years.
Monthly payments on a 5/6 ARM at a rate of 6.87% will cost approximately $656.59 per $100,000 borrowed over the first 5 years of the loan.
Jumbo loan interest rates are down, -0.06
The average jumbo mortgage rate today is 7.01%, a decrease of-0.06 percentage points over the past week.
Jumbo loans are mortgages that exceed loan limits set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and funding criteria of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This generally means that the amount of money borrowed is higher than $726,200.
Product
Monthly P&I per $100,000
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
$673.38
$677.43
-$4.05
15-Year Fixed Rate
$866.17
$865.62
+$0.55
5/6 ARM
$656.59
$665.30
-$8.71
7/6 ARM
$667.99
$675.41
-$7.42
10/6 ARM
$675.41
$682.18
-$6.77
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
$665.97
$670.01
-$4.04
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
$650.59
$656.59
-$6.00
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
$650.59
$655.93
-$5.34
Note: Monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages are shown for the first five, seven and 10 years of the loan, respectively.
Factors That Affect Your Mortgage Rate
Mortgage rates change frequently based on the economic environment. Inflation, the federal funds rate, housing market conditions and other factors all play into how rates move from week-to-week and month-to-month.
But outside of macroeconomic trends, several other factors specific to the borrower will affect the mortgage interest rate. They include:
Financial situation: Mortgage lenders use past financial decisions of borrowers as a way to evaluate the risk of loaning money.
Loan amount and structure: The amount of money that bank or mortgage lender loans and its structure (including both the term and whether its a fixed-rate or adjustable-rate).
Location: Mortgage rates vary by where you are buying a home. Areas with more lenders, and thus more competition, may have lower rates. Foreclosure laws can also impact a lender’s risk, affecting rates.
Whether borrowers are first-time homebuyers: Oftentimes first-time homebuyer programs will offer new homeowners lower rates.
Lenders: Banks, credit unions and online lenders all may offer slightly different rates depending on their internal determination.
How To Shop for the Best Mortgage Rate
Comparison shopping for a mortgage can be overwhelming, but it’s shown to be worth the effort. Homeowners may be able to save between $600 and $1,200 annually by shopping around for the best rate, researchers found in a recent study by Freddie Mac. That’s why we put together steps on how to shop for the best mortgage rate.
1. Check credit scores and credit reports
A borrower’s credit situation will likely determine the type of mortgage they can pursue, as well as their rate. Conventional loans are typically only offered to borrowers with a credit score of 620 or higher, while FHA loans may be the best option for borrowers with a FICO score between 500 and 619. Additionally, individuals with higher credit scores are more likely to be offered a lower mortgage interest rate.
Mortgage lenders often review scores from the three major credit bureaus: Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. By viewing your scores ahead of lenders considering you for a loan, you can check for errors and even work to improve your score by paying down balances and limiting new credit cards and loans.
2. Know the options
There are four standard mortgage programs: conventional, FHA, VA and USDA. To get the best mortgage rate and increase your odds of approval, it’s important for potential borrowers to do their research and apply for the mortgage program that best fits their financial situation.
The table below describes each program, highlighting minimum credit score and down payment requirements.
Though conventional mortgages are most common, borrowers will also need to consider their repayment plan and term. Rates can be either fixed or adjustable and terms can range from 10 to 30 years, though most homeowners opt for a 15- or 30-year mortgage.
3. Compare quotes across multiple lenders
Shopping around for a mortgage goes beyond comparing rates online. We recommend reaching out to lenders directly to see the “real” rate as figures listed online may not be representative of a borrower’s particular situation. While most experts recommend getting quotes from three to five lenders, there is no limit on the number of mortgage companies you can apply with. In many cases, lenders will allow borrowers to prequalify for a mortgage and receive a tentative loan offer with no impact to their credit score.
After gathering your loan documents – including proof of income, assets and credit – borrowers may also apply for pre-approval. Pre-approval will let them know where they stand with lenders and may also improve negotiating power with home sellers.
4. Review loan estimates
To fully understand which lender is offering the cheapest loan overall, take a look at the loan estimate provided by each lender. A loan estimate will list not only the mortgage rate, but also a borrower’s annual percentage rate (APR), which includes the interest rate and other lender fees such as closing costs and discount points.
By comparing loan estimates across lenders, borrowers can see the full breakdown of their possible costs. One lender may offer lower interest rates, but higher fees and vice versa. Looking at the loan’s APR can give you a good apples-to-apples comparison between lenders that takes into account both rates and fees.
5. Consider negotiating with lenders on rates
Mortgage lenders want to do business. This means that borrowers may use competing offers as leverage to adjust fees and interest rates. Many lenders may not lower their offered rate by much, but even a few basis points may save borrowers more than they might think in the long run. For instance, the difference between 6.8% and 7.0% on a 30-year, fixed-rate $100,000 mortgage is roughly $5,000 over the life of the loan.
Expert Forecasts for Mortgage Rates
With mortgage interest rates climbing steadily throughout the first half of 2023 and exceeding 7%, prospective homeowners may be wondering: Will there be any relief going forward? Some experts are optimistic.
Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) project that rates will fall going into 2024 and throughout next year. In fact, the MBA predicts that rates will end 2024 at 6.1%.
More Mortgage Resources
Methodology
Every weekday, MarketWatch Guides provides readers with the latest rates on 11 different types of mortgages. Data for these daily averages comes from Curinos, LLC, a leading provider of mortgage research that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our comprehensive methodology here.
Editor’s Note: Before making significant financial decisions, consider reviewing your options with someone you trust, such as a financial adviser, credit counselor or financial professional, since every person’s situation and needs are different.
Stephanie Horan is a lead data analyst for the MarketWatch Guides Team, specializing in home buying and personal finance. Beginning her career in asset management and transitioning to data journalism, Stephanie is a Certified Educator of Personal Finance (CEPF®). She is passionate about translating data to provide digestible insights for a broad audience. Her studies have been featured in CNBC, Bloomberg and the New York Times, among many others.
Edited By:
Andrew Dunn
Andrew Dunn is a veteran journalist with more than a decade of experience in the business and finance arena. Before joining our team, Andrew was a reporter and editor at North Carolina news organizations including The Charlotte Observer and the StarNews in Wilmington. In those roles, his work was cited numerous times by the North Carolina Press Association and the Society of Business Editors and Writers. Andrew completed the business journalism certificate program from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Editor’s Note: Parts of this story were auto-populated using data from Curinos, a mortgage research firm that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our methodology here.
Mortgage rates rose slightly in the first week of 2024, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increasing by 0.10 percentage points, according to data from Curinos analyzed by MarketWatch Guides.
This slight increase took place in the midst of mixed economic signals. The Labor Department reported that employers added 216,000 jobs in December, exceeding economists’ expectations, while the stock market had a rocky start to the beginning of the year. Through last Friday, the S&P is down roughly 1% year-to-date.
Economists with the Mortgage Bankers Association are still confident that rates will fall over the coming months. The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for the end of January, and though rates may be held steady at that meeting, the board previously indicated that they expect three rate cuts throughout the year.
Here are today’s average mortgage rates:
30-year fixed mortgage rate: 7.18%
15-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.41%
5/6 ARM mortgage rate: 6.90%
Jumbo mortgage rate: 7.03%
Current Mortgage Rates
Product
Rate
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
7.18%
7.19%
-0.01
15-Year Fixed Rate
6.41%
6.38%
+0.03
5/6 ARM
6.90%
6.94%
-0.04
7/6 ARM
7.11%
7.11%
0.00
10/6 ARM
7.19%
7.19%
0.00
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
7.03%
7.08%
-0.05
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
6.84%
6.90%
-0.06
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
6.85%
6.87%
-0.02
Disclaimer: The rates above are based on data from Curinos, LLC. All rate data is accurate as of Wednesday, January 10, 2024. Actual rates may vary.
>> View historical mortgage rate trends
Mortgage Rates for Home Purchase
30-year fixed-rate mortgages are down, -0.01
The average 30-year fixed-mortgage rate is 7.18%. Since the same time last week, the rate is down, changing -0.01 percentage points.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $677.43 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. You’re paying less compared to last week when the average rate was 7.19%.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages are up, +0.03
The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed-mortgage is 6.41%, an increase of+0.03 percentage points compared to last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed-mortgage at a rate of 6.41% will cost approximately $866.17 per $100,000 borrowed. With the rate of 6.38% last week, you would’ve paid $864.52 per month.
5/6 adjustable-rate mortgages are down,-0.04
The average rate on a 5/6 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.90%, a decrease of-0.04 percentage points over the last seven days.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, commonly referred to as ARMs, are mortgages with a fixed interest rate for a set period of time followed by a rate that adjusts on a regular basis. With a 5/6 ARM, the rate is fixed for the first 5 years and then adjusts every six months over the next 25 years.
Monthly payments on a 5/6 ARM at a rate of 6.90% will cost approximately $658.60 per $100,000 borrowed over the first 5 years of the loan.
Jumbo loan interest rates are down, -0.05
The average jumbo mortgage rate today is 7.03%, a decrease of-0.05 percentage points over the past week.
Jumbo loans are mortgages that exceed loan limits set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and funding criteria of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This generally means that the amount of money borrowed is higher than $726,200.
Product
Monthly P&I per $100,000
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
$677.43
$678.11
-$0.68
15-Year Fixed Rate
$866.17
$864.52
+$1.65
5/6 ARM
$658.60
$661.28
-$2.68
7/6 ARM
$672.71
$672.71
$0.00
10/6 ARM
$678.11
$678.11
$0.00
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
$667.32
$670.68
-$3.36
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
$654.59
$658.60
-$4.01
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
$655.26
$656.59
-$1.33
Note: Monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages are shown for the first five, seven and 10 years of the loan, respectively.
Factors That Affect Your Mortgage Rate
Mortgage rates change frequently based on the economic environment. Inflation, the federal funds rate, housing market conditions and other factors all play into how rates move from week-to-week and month-to-month.
But outside of macroeconomic trends, several other factors specific to the borrower will affect the mortgage interest rate. They include:
Financial situation: Mortgage lenders use past financial decisions of borrowers as a way to evaluate the risk of loaning money.
Loan amount and structure: The amount of money that bank or mortgage lender loans and its structure (including both the term and whether its a fixed-rate or adjustable-rate).
Location: Mortgage rates vary by where you are buying a home. Areas with more lenders, and thus more competition, may have lower rates. Foreclosure laws can also impact a lender’s risk, affecting rates.
Whether borrowers are first-time homebuyers: Oftentimes first-time homebuyer programs will offer new homeowners lower rates.
Lenders: Banks, credit unions and online lenders all may offer slightly different rates depending on their internal determination.
How To Shop for the Best Mortgage Rate
Comparison shopping for a mortgage can be overwhelming, but it’s shown to be worth the effort. Homeowners may be able to save between $600 and $1,200 annually by shopping around for the best rate, researchers found in a recent study by Freddie Mac. That’s why we put together steps on how to shop for the best mortgage rate.
1. Check credit scores and credit reports
A borrower’s credit situation will likely determine the type of mortgage they can pursue, as well as their rate. Conventional loans are typically only offered to borrowers with a credit score of 620 or higher, while FHA loans may be the best option for borrowers with a FICO score between 500 and 619. Additionally, individuals with higher credit scores are more likely to be offered a lower mortgage interest rate.
Mortgage lenders often review scores from the three major credit bureaus: Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. By viewing your scores ahead of lenders considering you for a loan, you can check for errors and even work to improve your score by paying down balances and limiting new credit cards and loans.
2. Know the options
There are four standard mortgage programs: conventional, FHA, VA and USDA. To get the best mortgage rate and increase your odds of approval, it’s important for potential borrowers to do their research and apply for the mortgage program that best fits their financial situation.
The table below describes each program, highlighting minimum credit score and down payment requirements.
Though conventional mortgages are most common, borrowers will also need to consider their repayment plan and term. Rates can be either fixed or adjustable and terms can range from 10 to 30 years, though most homeowners opt for a 15- or 30-year mortgage.
3. Compare quotes across multiple lenders
Shopping around for a mortgage goes beyond comparing rates online. We recommend reaching out to lenders directly to see the “real” rate as figures listed online may not be representative of a borrower’s particular situation. While most experts recommend getting quotes from three to five lenders, there is no limit on the number of mortgage companies you can apply with. In many cases, lenders will allow borrowers to prequalify for a mortgage and receive a tentative loan offer with no impact to their credit score.
After gathering your loan documents – including proof of income, assets and credit – borrowers may also apply for pre-approval. Pre-approval will let them know where they stand with lenders and may also improve negotiating power with home sellers.
4. Review loan estimates
To fully understand which lender is offering the cheapest loan overall, take a look at the loan estimate provided by each lender. A loan estimate will list not only the mortgage rate, but also a borrower’s annual percentage rate (APR), which includes the interest rate and other lender fees such as closing costs and discount points.
By comparing loan estimates across lenders, borrowers can see the full breakdown of their possible costs. One lender may offer lower interest rates, but higher fees and vice versa. Looking at the loan’s APR can give you a good apples-to-apples comparison between lenders that takes into account both rates and fees.
5. Consider negotiating with lenders on rates
Mortgage lenders want to do business. This means that borrowers may use competing offers as leverage to adjust fees and interest rates. Many lenders may not lower their offered rate by much, but even a few basis points may save borrowers more than they might think in the long run. For instance, the difference between 6.8% and 7.0% on a 30-year, fixed-rate $100,000 mortgage is roughly $5,000 over the life of the loan.
Expert Forecasts for Mortgage Rates
With mortgage interest rates climbing steadily throughout the first half of 2023 and exceeding 7%, prospective homeowners may be wondering: Will there be any relief going forward? Some experts are optimistic.
Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) project that rates will fall going into 2024 and throughout next year. In fact, the MBA predicts that rates will end 2024 at 6.1%.
More Mortgage Resources
Methodology
Every weekday, MarketWatch Guides provides readers with the latest rates on 11 different types of mortgages. Data for these daily averages comes from Curinos, LLC, a leading provider of mortgage research that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our comprehensive methodology here.
Editor’s Note: Before making significant financial decisions, consider reviewing your options with someone you trust, such as a financial adviser, credit counselor or financial professional, since every person’s situation and needs are different.
Mortgage rates fell for the eighth week in a row, staying well below 7%, providing a much-needed boost to the U.S. housing market.
The drop in the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was the biggest in over a year. The 30-year averaged 6.67% as of December 21, according to data released by Freddie Mac
FMCC,
+8.33%
on Thursday.
It’s down 28 basis points from the previous week — one basis point is equal to one hundredth of a percentage point.
A year ago, the 30-year was averaging at 6.27%.
The average rate on the 15-year mortgage was 5.95%, down from 6.38% last week. The 15-year was at 5.69% a year ago.
Freddie Mac’s weekly report on mortgage rates is based on thousands of applications received from lenders across the country that are submitted to Freddie Mac when a borrower applies for a mortgage.
Separate data by Mortgage News Daily said that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was averaging at 6.64% as of Thursday afternoon.
What Freddie Mac said: “Lower rates are bringing potential homebuyers who were previously waiting on the sidelines back into the market and builders already are starting to feel the positive effects,” Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, said in a statement.
“A rise in homebuilder confidence, followed by new home construction reaching its highest level since May, signals a response to meet heightened demand as current inventory remains low,” he added.
What are they saying? “While declining rates is a positive for homebuyers, the lack of inventory—both because of a deficit of new construction and because existing homeowners are remaining in the homes longer—will continue to be a challenge in 2024,” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, said in a statement.
For a third day, average mortgage rates barely moved yesterday. But that’s good because it means last week’s big falls remain effectively uneroded.
First thing, it was again looking as if mortgage rates today might fall, perhaps modestly or moderately. However, that could change as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.125%
7.14%
-0.075
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.385%
6.415%
-0.1
Conventional 20-year fixed
6.975%
7%
-0.045
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.12%
6.145%
-0.065
30-year fixed FHA
5.98%
6.88%
-0.095
30-year fixed VA
6.165%
6.315%
-0.13
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.425%
7.675%
-0.035
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Every day that passes makes a corrective bounce (when mortgage rates rise as markets think they’ve got carried away) less likely. And it reinforces my hope that those rates are in a downward trend that could last well into next year.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
FLOAT if closing in 15 days
FLOAT if closing in 30 days
FLOAT if closing in 45 days
FLOATif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged lower to 3.90% from 3.92%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were mostly falling this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices climbed to $75.14 from $73.12 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices held steady at $2,049 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — ticked down to 77 from 78. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to decrease. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
The Federal Reserve
This morning’s Wall Street Journal (paywall) observed: “After their policy meeting last week, Fed officials released projections of at least three rate cuts [in general interest rates] next year. They have since been flummoxed that investors expect even faster and deeper cuts. The result: Confusion over when and how quickly the Fed might cut as the central bank tries to bring inflation down without a painful recession.”
This could turn into a real issue that could push mortgage rates higher, probably in the new year. Wall Street has a long and inglorious record of hearing what it wants the Fed to say rather than what the Fed actually says. And we’ve seen quite recently examples of sharp rises in mortgage rates when markets’ wishful thinking collides with reality.
Still, last week’s Fed meeting did deliver genuinely good news. And, even if mortgage rates rise when investors face the cold light of dawning reality, I’m optimistic that we’ll keep at least most of the recent gains. Just be aware that the path to lower mortgage rates is unlikely to be smooth.
Today
This morning’s economic reports cover existing home sales in November and consumer confidence in December. They’re both published too late for me to assess their likely impact on markets and mortgage rates.
They could push mortgage rates a little higher or lower, but they rarely move them far or for long.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow brings gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the third quarter of this year. This will be the third and final estimate for this number.
The second estimate put GDP growth at 5.2%, up from 2.1% in the second quarter. MarketWatch says that market expectations for tomorrow’s figure have recently been slightly scaled down to 5.1%.
If the actual number tomorrow is lower than 5.1%, that could drag mortgage rates lower. But, if it’s higher, that could push those rates upward.
Friday
We’re due November’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday. Markets might get nervous if that shows inflation rising more than expected because that could destroy the Fed’s new-found optimism.
More on what to expect from the PCE report tomorrow.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.
Freddie’s Dec. 14 report put that same weekly average at 6.95%, down from the previous week’s 7.03%. Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q4/23) and the following three quarters (Q1/24, Q2/24 and Q3/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Dec. 19 and the MBA’s on Dec. 13.
Forecaster
Q4/23
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Fannie Mae
7.4%
7.0%
6.8%
6.6%
MBA
7.4%
7.0%
6.6%
6.3%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Stephanie Horan is a lead data analyst for the MarketWatch Guides Team, specializing in home buying and personal finance. Beginning her career in asset management and transitioning to data journalism, Stephanie is a Certified Educator of Personal Finance (CEPF®). She is passionate about translating data to provide digestible insights for a broad audience. Her studies have been featured in CNBC, Bloomberg and the New York Times, among many others.
Edited By:
Andrew Dunn
Andrew Dunn is a veteran journalist with more than a decade of experience in the business and finance arena. Before joining our team, Andrew was a reporter and editor at North Carolina news organizations including The Charlotte Observer and the StarNews in Wilmington. In those roles, his work was cited numerous times by the North Carolina Press Association and the Society of Business Editors and Writers. Andrew completed the business journalism certificate program from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Editor’s Note: Parts of this story were auto-populated using data from Curinos, a mortgage research firm that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our methodology here.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has stayed close to 7% for the last two weeks, according to data analyzed by MarketWatch Guides – but recent economic news could signal that rates will continue to fall. After hitting 8% in mid-October, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has dropped nearly a percentage point over two months.
In their last meeting of 2023, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, leaving the federal funds rate at a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The Fed also foreshadowed multiple rate cuts in 2024.
Mortgage rates do not always move in tandem with the federal funds rate, instead tending to track the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. However, economists with the National Association of Realtors predict that mortgage rates will continue to fall in 2024 if the Fed sticks to its forecast and inflation cools.
In fact, November estimates from the Mortgage Banker Association predict that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will end next year at 6.1%, almost another full percentage point lower than where it stands today.
Here are today’s average mortgage rates:
30-year fixed mortgage rate: 7.08%
15-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.31%
5/6 ARM mortgage rate: 6.97%
Jumbo mortgage rate: 7.09%
Current Mortgage Rates
Product
Rate
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
7.08%
7.42%
-0.34
15-Year Fixed Rate
6.31%
6.72%
-0.41
5/6 ARM
6.97%
7.27%
-0.30
7/6 ARM
7.09%
7.45%
-0.36
10/6 ARM
7.15%
7.50%
-0.35
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
7.09%
7.32%
-0.23
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
6.86%
7.08%
-0.22
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
6.85%
7.04%
-0.19
Disclaimer: The rates above are based on data from Curinos, LLC. All rate data is accurate as of Monday, December 18, 2023. Actual rates may vary.
>> View historical mortgage rate trends
Mortgage Rates for Home Purchase
30-year fixed-rate mortgages are down, -0.34
The average 30-year fixed-mortgage rate is 7.08%. Since the same time last week, the rate is down, changing -0.34 percentage points.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $670.68 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. You’re paying less compared to last week when the average rate was 7.42%.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages are down, -0.41
The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed-mortgage is 6.31%, a decrease of-0.41 percentage points compared to last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed-mortgage at a rate of 6.31% will cost approximately $860.70 per $100,000 borrowed. With the rate of 6.72% last week, you would’ve paid $883.25 per month.
5/6 adjustable-rate mortgages are down,-0.30
The average rate on a 5/6 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.97%, a decrease of-0.30 percentage points over the last seven days.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, commonly referred to as ARMs, are mortgages with a fixed interest rate for a set period of time followed by a rate that adjusts on a regular basis. With a 5/6 ARM, the rate is fixed for the first 5 years and then adjusts every six months over the next 25 years.
Monthly payments on a 5/6 ARM at a rate of 6.97% will cost approximately $663.29 per $100,000 borrowed over the first 5 years of the loan.
Jumbo loan interest rates are down, -0.23
The average jumbo mortgage rate today is 7.09%, a decrease of-0.23 percentage points over the past week.
Jumbo loans are mortgages that exceed loan limits set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and funding criteria of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This generally means that the amount of money borrowed is higher than $726,200.
Product
Monthly P&I per $100,000
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
$670.68
$693.74
-$23.06
15-Year Fixed Rate
$860.70
$883.25
-$22.55
5/6 ARM
$663.29
$683.53
-$20.24
7/6 ARM
$671.36
$695.79
-$24.43
10/6 ARM
$675.41
$699.21
-$23.80
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
$671.36
$686.93
-$15.57
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
$655.93
$670.68
-$14.75
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
$655.26
$667.99
-$12.73
Note: Monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages are shown for the first five, seven and 10 years of the loan, respectively.
Factors That Affect Your Mortgage Rate
Mortgage rates change frequently based on the economic environment. Inflation, the federal funds rate, housing market conditions and other factors all play into how rates move from week-to-week and month-to-month.
But outside of macroeconomic trends, several other factors specific to the borrower will affect the mortgage interest rate. They include:
Financial situation: Mortgage lenders use past financial decisions of borrowers as a way to evaluate the risk of loaning money.
Loan amount and structure: The amount of money that bank or mortgage lender loans and its structure (including both the term and whether its a fixed-rate or adjustable-rate).
Location: Mortgage rates vary by where you are buying a home. Areas with more lenders, and thus more competition, may have lower rates. Foreclosure laws can also impact a lender’s risk, affecting rates.
Whether borrowers are first-time homebuyers: Oftentimes first-time homebuyer programs will offer new homeowners lower rates.
Lenders: Banks, credit unions and online lenders all may offer slightly different rates depending on their internal determination.
How To Shop for the Best Mortgage Rate
Comparison shopping for a mortgage can be overwhelming, but it’s shown to be worth the effort. Homeowners may be able to save between $600 and $1,200 annually by shopping around for the best rate, researchers found in a recent study by Freddie Mac. That’s why we put together steps on how to shop for the best mortgage rate.
1. Check credit scores and credit reports
A borrower’s credit situation will likely determine the type of mortgage they can pursue, as well as their rate. Conventional loans are typically only offered to borrowers with a credit score of 620 or higher, while FHA loans may be the best option for borrowers with a FICO score between 500 and 619. Additionally, individuals with higher credit scores are more likely to be offered a lower mortgage interest rate.
Mortgage lenders often review scores from the three major credit bureaus: Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. By viewing your scores ahead of lenders considering you for a loan, you can check for errors and even work to improve your score by paying down balances and limiting new credit cards and loans.
2. Know the options
There are four standard mortgage programs: conventional, FHA, VA and USDA. To get the best mortgage rate and increase your odds of approval, it’s important for potential borrowers to do their research and apply for the mortgage program that best fits their financial situation.
The table below describes each program, highlighting minimum credit score and down payment requirements.
Though conventional mortgages are most common, borrowers will also need to consider their repayment plan and term. Rates can be either fixed or adjustable and terms can range from 10 to 30 years, though most homeowners opt for a 15- or 30-year mortgage.
3. Compare quotes across multiple lenders
Shopping around for a mortgage goes beyond comparing rates online. We recommend reaching out to lenders directly to see the “real” rate as figures listed online may not be representative of a borrower’s particular situation. While most experts recommend getting quotes from three to five lenders, there is no limit on the number of mortgage companies you can apply with. In many cases, lenders will allow borrowers to prequalify for a mortgage and receive a tentative loan offer with no impact to their credit score.
After gathering your loan documents – including proof of income, assets and credit – borrowers may also apply for pre-approval. Pre-approval will let them know where they stand with lenders and may also improve negotiating power with home sellers.
4. Review loan estimates
To fully understand which lender is offering the cheapest loan overall, take a look at the loan estimate provided by each lender. A loan estimate will list not only the mortgage rate, but also a borrower’s annual percentage rate (APR), which includes the interest rate and other lender fees such as closing costs and discount points.
By comparing loan estimates across lenders, borrowers can see the full breakdown of their possible costs. One lender may offer lower interest rates, but higher fees and vice versa. Looking at the loan’s APR can give you a good apples-to-apples comparison between lenders that takes into account both rates and fees.
5. Consider negotiating with lenders on rates
Mortgage lenders want to do business. This means that borrowers may use competing offers as leverage to adjust fees and interest rates. Many lenders may not lower their offered rate by much, but even a few basis points may save borrowers more than they might think in the long run. For instance, the difference between 6.8% and 7.0% on a 30-year, fixed-rate $100,000 mortgage is roughly $5,000 over the life of the loan.
Expert Forecasts for Mortgage Rates
With mortgage interest rates climbing steadily throughout the first half of 2023 and exceeding 7%, prospective homeowners may be wondering: Will there be any relief going forward? Some experts are optimistic.
Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) project that rates will fall going into 2024 and throughout next year. In fact, the MBA predicts that rates will end 2024 at 6.1%.
More Mortgage Resources
Methodology
Every weekday, MarketWatch Guides provides readers with the latest rates on 11 different types of mortgages. Data for these daily averages comes from Curinos, LLC, a leading provider of mortgage research that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our comprehensive methodology here.
Editor’s Note: Before making significant financial decisions, consider reviewing your options with someone you trust, such as a financial adviser, credit counselor or financial professional, since every person’s situation and needs are different.
If you’re thinking about buying a home, or refinancing an existing home loan, mortgage rates are likely top of mind.
As you may or may not know, mortgage rates can change daily based on market conditions, similar to the stock market.
This means they can be higher one day and lower the next. Or they may do next to nothing at all from day to day, or even week to week.
But having an idea of which direction they’re going can be helpful, especially if you’re actively shopping your rate.
Let’s discuss a simple way to track mortgage rates using readily available economic data.
You Can Track Mortgage Rates Using the 10-Year Bond Yield
Simply look up the 10-year bond yield on your favorite finance website
Check the direction it’s going (like you would a stock ticker)
If it’s up then mortgage rates will likely be higher than yesterday
If it’s down then mortgage rates will likely be lower than yesterday
Hands down, the simplest way to track mortgage rates is the 10-year treasury bond yield.
Over time, mortgage rates and the 10-year yield have moved in near lockstep, as seen in the graph above from FRED.
In other words, when 10-year yields fall, so do mortgage rates. And when yields rise, mortgage rates climb higher.
As for why, many 30-year fixed mortgages are paid off in about a decade. This means the duration is similar to a 10-year bond.
But because mortgages have prepayment risk, there is a “spread,” or premium that is paid to investors of associated mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are also bonds.
This spread is the difference between the going 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year yield.
For a long time, it hovered around 170 basis points. This meant if a 10-year bond was yielding 3.00%, a 30-year fixed mortgage might be priced around 4.70%. Or perhaps 4.75%.
So in order to track mortgage rates, you simply had to look up the 10-year yield and add this spread. Then you’d have a ballpark price for mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Spreads Have Widened, But the 10-Year Bond Yield Is Still Relevant for Tracking the Direction of Rates
Recently, mortgage rate spreads widened considerably due to economic uncertainty, heightened prepayment risk, out-of-control inflation, and other factors.
At one point, the spread was more than 300 basis points, or roughly double the norm, as seen in the chart above. This made tracking a bit more difficult, but the direction of yields and rates was still relevant.
So even though the spreads were wider, if the 10-year yield went up on a given day, mortgage rates likely increased as well. Or vice versa.
This means you can still look up the 10-year bond yield and determine which way mortgage rates will go that day.
If yields are up, mortgage rates will likely be up too. If yields are down, there’s a good chance mortgage rates will be down also.
The same goes for magnitude of change. If yields plummet, mortgage rates should also improve a lot. But if yields surge higher, watch out for much higher rates.
Now back to those wide spreads. Over the past 18 months or so, the Fed has been battling inflation with 11 rate hikes via their own federal funds rate.
But now that the Fed has indicated that their next move could be a rate cut, and that inflation may have peaked, there’s a lot more calm in the markets.
As such, spreads have come back down to around 270 basis points. While still ~100 bps higher than normal, it’s moderating.
And again, we can still guess direction regardless of the spread being wider than usual.
MBS Prices Are Even More Accurate Than 10-Year Bond Yields When Tracking Mortgage Rates
A mortgage rate purist will tell you that the 10-year bond is a great benchmark to track mortgage rates. But that looking at actual MBS prices is better.
This is true because MBS prices directly impact mortgage rate movement. So if MBS prices fall on a given day, mortgage rates will rise.
Remember, when the price of a mortgage bond falls, due to less demand, its yield, aka interest rate, increases.
As such, if you want mortgage rates to go down, you’ll be rooting for MBS prices to increase. And they’ll increase if demand is strong, thereby pushing yields down.
Now the question is how do you go about tracking MBS prices?
While you can track the 10-year bond yield on Yahoo Finance (as seen above), Google Finance, Marketwatch, CNBC, you name it, MBS price data isn’t as readily available.
However, Mortgage News Daily does a good job of posting daily MBS prices on its website.
They list both UMBS for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (conforming mortgages) and Ginnie Mae (GNMA) MBS for FHA loans and VA loans.
If you’re curious if mortgage rates are up or down on a given day, head over there and look at MBS prices.
Remember, if MBS prices are down, mortgage rates will be higher. And if MBS prices are up, mortgage rates will be lower.
To sum things up, tracking mortgage rates isn’t too difficult. Simply look up the 10-year yield each morning and also check out MBS prices.
From there you’ll have a pretty good idea of whether they’re going to be higher or lower than the previous day.
Now when it comes to predicting them, that’s another story altogether…
Stephanie Horan is a lead data analyst for the MarketWatch Guides Team, specializing in home buying and personal finance. Beginning her career in asset management and transitioning to data journalism, Stephanie is a Certified Educator of Personal Finance (CEPF®). She is passionate about translating data to provide digestible insights for a broad audience. Her studies have been featured in CNBC, Bloomberg and the New York Times, among many others.
Edited By:
Andrew Dunn
Andrew Dunn is a veteran journalist with more than a decade of experience in the business and finance arena. Before joining our team, Andrew was a reporter and editor at North Carolina news organizations including The Charlotte Observer and the StarNews in Wilmington. In those roles, his work was cited numerous times by the North Carolina Press Association and the Society of Business Editors and Writers. Andrew completed the business journalism certificate program from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Editor’s Note: Parts of this story were auto-populated using data from Curinos, a mortgage research firm that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our methodology here.
Mortgage rates are down over the past week, with the 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 7.34%.
Here are today’s average mortgage rates:
30-year fixed mortgage rate: 7.34%
15-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.71%
5/6 ARM mortgage rate: 7.29%
Jumbo mortgage rate: 7.31%
Current Mortgage Rates
Product
Rate
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
7.34%
7.52%
-0.18
15-Year Fixed Rate
6.71%
6.74%
-0.03
5/6 ARM
7.29%
7.29%
0.00
7/6 ARM
7.40%
7.44%
-0.04
10/6 ARM
7.49%
7.57%
-0.08
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
7.31%
7.40%
-0.09
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
7.00%
7.18%
-0.18
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
6.99%
7.15%
-0.16
Disclaimer: The rates above are based on data from Curinos, LLC. All rate data is accurate as of Friday, December 8, 2023. Actual rates may vary.
Mortgage Rates for Home Purchase
30-year fixed-rate mortgages are down, -0.18
The average 30-year fixed-mortgage rate is 7.34%. Since the same time last week, the rate is down, changing -0.18 percentage points.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $688.29 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. You’re paying less compared to last week when the average rate was 7.52%.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages are down, -0.03
The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed-mortgage is 6.71%, a decrease of-0.03 percentage points compared to last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed-mortgage at a rate of 6.71% will cost approximately $882.69 per $100,000 borrowed. With the rate of 6.74% last week, you would’ve paid $884.36 per month.
5/6 adjustable-rate mortgages are steady,0.00
The average rate on a 5/6 adjustable rate mortgage is 7.29%, flatover the last seven days.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, commonly referred to as ARMs, are mortgages with a fixed interest rate for a set period of time followed by a rate that adjusts on a regular basis. With a 5/6 ARM, the rate is fixed for the first 5 years and then adjusts every six months over the next 25 years.
Monthly payments on a 5/6 ARM at a rate of 7.29% will cost approximately $684.89 per $100,000 borrowed over the first 5 years of the loan.
Jumbo loan interest rates are down, -0.09
The average jumbo mortgage rate today is 7.31%, a decrease of-0.09 percentage pointsover the past week.
Jumbo loans are mortgages that exceed loan limits set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and funding criteria of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This generally means that the amount of money borrowed is higher than $726,200.
Product
Monthly P&I per $100,000
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
$688.29
$700.58
-$12.29
15-Year Fixed Rate
$882.69
$884.36
-$1.67
5/6 ARM
$684.89
$684.89
$0.00
7/6 ARM
$692.38
$695.11
-$2.73
10/6 ARM
$698.53
$704.01
-$5.48
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
$686.25
$692.38
-$6.13
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
$665.30
$677.43
-$12.13
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
$664.63
$675.41
-$10.78
Note: Monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages are shown for the first five, seven and 10 years of the loan, respectively.
Factors That Affect Your Mortgage Rate
Mortgage rates change frequently based on the economic environment. Inflation, the federal funds rate, housing market conditions and other factors all play into how rates move from week-to-week and month-to-month.
But outside of macroeconomic trends, several other factors specific to the borrower will affect the mortgage interest rate. They include:
Financial situation: Mortgage lenders use past financial decisions of borrowers as a way to evaluate the risk of loaning money.
Loan amount and structure: The amount of money that bank or mortgage lender loans and its structure (including both the term and whether its a fixed-rate or adjustable-rate).
Location: Mortgage rates vary by where you are buying a home. Areas with more lenders, and thus more competition, may have lower rates. Foreclosure laws can also impact a lender’s risk, affecting rates.
Whether borrowers are first-time homebuyers: Oftentimes first-time homebuyer programs will offer new homeowners lower rates.
Lenders: Banks, credit unions and online lenders all may offer slightly different rates depending on their internal determination.
How To Shop for the Best Mortgage Rate
Comparison shopping for a mortgage can be overwhelming, but it’s shown to be worth the effort. Homeowners may be able to save between $600 and $1,200 annually by shopping around for the best rate, researchers found in a recent study by Freddie Mac. That’s why we put together steps on how to shop for the best mortgage rate.
1. Check credit scores and credit reports
A borrower’s credit situation will likely determine the type of mortgage they can pursue, as well as their rate. Conventional loans are typically only offered to borrowers with a credit score of 620 or higher, while FHA loans may be the best option for borrowers with a FICO score between 500 and 619. Additionally, individuals with higher credit scores are more likely to be offered a lower mortgage interest rate.
Mortgage lenders often review scores from the three major credit bureaus: Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. By viewing your scores ahead of lenders considering you for a loan, you can check for errors and even work to improve your score by paying down balances and limiting new credit cards and loans.
2. Know the options
There are four standard mortgage programs: conventional, FHA, VA and USDA. To get the best mortgage rate and increase your odds of approval, it’s important for potential borrowers to do their research and apply for the mortgage program that best fits their financial situation.
The table below describes each program, highlighting minimum credit score and down payment requirements.
Though conventional mortgages are most common, borrowers will also need to consider their repayment plan and term. Rates can be either fixed or adjustable and terms can range from 10 to 30 years, though most homeowners opt for a 15- or 30-year mortgage.
3. Compare quotes across multiple lenders
Shopping around for a mortgage goes beyond comparing rates online. We recommend reaching out to lenders directly to see the “real” rate as figures listed online may not be representative of a borrower’s particular situation. While most experts recommend getting quotes from three to five lenders, there is no limit on the number of mortgage companies you can apply with. In many cases, lenders will allow borrowers to prequalify for a mortgage and receive a tentative loan offer with no impact to their credit score.
After gathering your loan documents – including proof of income, assets and credit – borrowers may also apply for pre-approval. Pre-approval will let them know where they stand with lenders and may also improve negotiating power with home sellers.
4. Review loan estimates
To fully understand which lender is offering the cheapest loan overall, take a look at the loan estimate provided by each lender. A loan estimate will list not only the mortgage rate, but also a borrower’s annual percentage rate (APR), which includes the interest rate and other lender fees such as closing costs and discount points.
By comparing loan estimates across lenders, borrowers can see the full breakdown of their possible costs. One lender may offer lower interest rates, but higher fees and vice versa. Looking at the loan’s APR can give you a good apples-to-apples comparison between lenders that takes into account both rates and fees.
5. Consider negotiating with lenders on rates
Mortgage lenders want to do business. This means that borrowers may use competing offers as leverage to adjust fees and interest rates. Many lenders may not lower their offered rate by much, but even a few basis points may save borrowers more than they might think in the long run. For instance, the difference between 6.8% and 7.0% on a 30-year, fixed-rate $100,000 mortgage is roughly $5,000 over the life of the loan.
Expert Forecasts for Mortgage Rates
With mortgage interest rates climbing steadily throughout the first half of 2023 and exceeding 7%, prospective homeowners may be wondering: Will there be any relief going forward? Some experts are optimistic.
Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) project that rates will fall going into 2024 and throughout next year. In fact, the MBA predicts that rates will end 2024 at 6.1%.
More Mortgage Resources
Methodology
Every weekday, MarketWatch Guides provides readers with the latest rates on 11 different types of mortgages. Data for these daily averages comes from Curinos, LLC, a leading provider of mortgage research that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our comprehensive methodology here.
Editor’s Note: Before making significant financial decisions, consider reviewing your options with someone you trust, such as a financial adviser, credit counselor or financial professional, since every person’s situation and needs are different.
Good news, home buyers — expect both lower mortgage rates and home prices in 2024, which could ease the cost of homeownership, Redfin
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In its housing outlook for 2024, the real-estate brokerage said that next year would not only be “a year of change” but one where aspiring homeowners will finally be “catching a break.”
“2024 will be neither a buyers’ nor a sellers’ market, but we think that the market will be tilting in favor of buyers with lower rates, lower prices, and more inventory as sellers get tired of waiting for rates to drop,” Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economics research lead, told MarketWatch.
“The increase in supply is likely to exceed the increase in demand, creating a market more friendly for buyers than 2023,” she added.
Home prices and mortgage rates to fall in 2024, according to Redfin
The brokerage expects home prices to fall 1% on a year-over-year basis in the second and third quarter of 2024. Aside from a brief drop in the first half of this year, the decrease would be the first time prices would have fallen since 2012, Redfin added, “when the housing market was recovering from the Great Recession.”
The median price of a home sold in October 2023 was $391,800, according to the National Association of Realtors. Prices were up 3.4% from last October.
Redfin expects home prices to fall in part because it expects the “lock-in” effect to subside. The lock-in effect refers to people who don’t want to sell their current home because of their relatively low mortgage rate.
“We’ve recently seen a double-digit annual increase in homeowners contacting Redfin for help selling their home, alongside a small drop in requests from prospective buyers,” the company noted.
Some homeowners are warming up to the idea of borrowing at a rate of 7%, Redfin said, because they may not see mortgage rates fall to the 3% – 4% range any time soon. Others see an opportunity to cash out on their equity and move to a more affordable place, the company added.
Redfin’s forecast also expects mortgage rates to drop. The rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was averaging 7.22% as of Nov. 30, according to Freddie Mac. The 30-year will fall throughout the year, Redfin said, and drop to 6.6% by the end of 2024. Even though Redfin expects the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at their current level for the time being, it’s expecting a rate cut two or three times starting in the summer, which would bring mortgage rates down, they explained.
A separate 2024 housing forecast by Realtor.com predicted that mortgage rates will drop to 6.5% by the end of 2024.
Redfin also expects home prices to fall more significantly in certain parts of the nation, such as in parts of coastal Florida. Considering the run-up in home prices in places like North Port and Cape Coral, Redfin explained, there’s a “lot of room to fall.” Additionally, there’s the rising risk of climate disasters, such as hurricanes and storm surges, which make it more expensive to own homes in such areas given the rising cost of home insurance and other associated repair and rebuilding costs.
“At the same time, affordable and climate resilient places such as Albany, N.Y., Rochester, N.Y., and Grand Rapids, Mich., could see more rapid price appreciation,” Zhao added.
Political and legal developments to watch for in 2024
Redfin also noted that buyers and sellers will be more aware of the commissions they pay to real-estate agents next year, on the back of a landmark jury verdict in 2023 which upended a decades-long arrangement. Redfin is one of the defendants named in another class-action suit by home sellers, and is accused of engaging in a price-fixing conspiracy to inflate commissions.
Instead of the home seller bearing the 5-6% fee paid to their broker, which has historically been shared between the listing agent and the buyer’s agents, the arrangement may change. “Home buyers in 2024 will become even more aware of how much an agent costs,” Redfin said, “and less apologetic about negotiating commissions.”
Buyers may also forgo working with their own agent and work directly with the listing agent, Redfin suggested.
Additionally, Redfin expects the Biden administration to focus more efforts on housing, given how rapidly affordability has deteriorated in the last year. Considering the fact that home prices are up more than 20% since the president took office, Redfin said, “high housing costs are making many Americans feel poor.”
The Biden-Harris campaign did not respond immediately to a request for comment.
“We expect President Biden and his opponents to make splashy housing policy proposals to try to lure voters who are unhappy with their economic prospects,” Redfin said.
“Democrats are likely to focus on subsidizing down payments for first-time homebuyers, promoting inclusionary zoning and funding housing vouchers, which are all popular with liberal voters,” the company added. “Republicans are more likely to focus on reducing regulations that limit development.”
Goldman analysts lowered their 2008 earnings estimate for JP Morgan Chase to $3.30 from $3.44 yesterday after the bank warned investors it could lose $450 million on home equity loans during the first quarter alone, according to a report by Marketwatch.
Last quarter, Chase reported $248 million in write-offs tied to home equity loans, up from $150 million in the third quarter and $51 million in the fourth quarter of 2006.
The net charge-off rate climbed to 1.05 percent in the fourth quarter from 0.65 percent in the third quarter, more than quadrupling the 0.24 percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2006.
Now factor in plummeting home prices and high loan-to-value ratios and you’ve got a huge problem, especially with “walking away” becoming all the rage these days.
Chase attributed the escalating losses to an over-reliance on Fico scores and underlying property values, along with layered risk and direct vs. indirect loan origination channels.
About a month ago, the New York-based bank reduced the maximum loan-to-value on second mortgages via the wholesale channel to 85 percent in many areas, while stamping out loans at or above 100% LTV.
According to a slide from Chase’s Investor Day presentation held on Wednesday, the bank originated $48.3 billion in home equity loans in 2007, a slim decline from the $51.9 billion originated in 2006 given the high-risk environment.
And as of the end of January, Chase still had $15.2 billion in CMBS exposure, $6.3 billion in Alt-A exposure, $2.4 billion in subprime and subprime CDO exposure, and $5.4 billion of CDO warehouse and unsold positions.
Shares of Chase were off $1.52, or 3.58%, to $40.92 in late trading Friday, not far from their 52-week low of $37.66.
Below is the delinquency rate chart for home equity loans in Chase’s portfolio:
Thornburg Mortgage said today that it paid more than $300 million in margin calls since mid-February as a result of quickly deteriorating mortgage-backed securities, and could face more as conditions worsen.
Below is an excerpt from their 10-K filing which explains the series of events that took place and led to the margin calls:
“Beginning on February 14, 2008, there was once again a sudden adverse change in mortgage market conditions in general and more specifically in the valuations of mortgage securities backed by Alt-A mortgage loan collateral.”
“As of February 15, 2008, our Purchased ARM Assets included approximately $2.9 billion of super senior, credit-enhanced mortgage securities, all of which are AAA-rated and backed by Alt-A mortgage collateral. Our current credit assessment of these mortgage securities in our portfolio suggests a low possibility of future downgrades and even less risk of actual losses. We have not realized any losses on these mortgage securities to date. However, we have observed deterioration in the liquidity for these securities and increased difficulty in obtaining market prices.”
“Accordingly, market valuations of these securities have decreased between 10 and 15 percent since January 31, 2008, and as a result, we have been subject to margin calls on this collateral. Since February 14, 2008, we have met margin calls in excess of $300 million on our Reverse Repurchase Agreements, the substantial majority of which is related to the decline in valuations placed on these securities.”
“However, in the short term, the sudden decline in the valuation of these securities has left us with reduced readily available liquidity to meet future margin calls, relative to our cash and unpledged securities position of December 31, 2007. In the event that we cannot meet future margin calls from our available cash position, we might need to selectively sell assets in order to raise cash. To date, no such sales have been required to meet margin calls. However, there is no assurance that the value of our mortgage portfolio and derivatives portfolio will not decline further, that we will not experience a further decline in our book value, that lenders will not make additional margin calls or that we will be able to satisfy additional margin calls, if any.”
“Additionally, while we have successfully maintained our financing lines, increasing those lines has become more difficult since February 14, 2008. Given the current uncertainty regarding these market conditions, we are unable to offer any additional factual information on the situation and how it will impact us other than to disclose what we are currently seeing in the mortgage market.”
Thornburg also noted that the secondary market remains volatile, and mortgage-backed securities trading is still very challenging and limited.
As a result, the value of said securities could decline further and lead to additional margin calls and asset sales to meet them.
The Santa Fe, New Mexico-based mortgage lender specializes in jumbo adjustable-rate mortgages generally for the very wealthy.
Shares of Thornburg fell a whopping $1.96, or 16.98%, to $9.58 in afternoon trading on Wall Street.
Update: Marketwatch reported that a Valentine’s Day disclosure from UBS revealing that it had $26.6 billion in Alt-A exposure led to the price deterioration and subsequent margin calls.