FHFA announces further extension of COVID-related mortgage relief

The Federal Housing Finance Agency is providing an additional three months of forbearance to borrowers with loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, totaling 18 months of relief due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The FHFA said Thursday that it was aligning its policies with the Biden administration to address economic burdens for homeowners due to COVID-19. The change comes nearly three weeks after the agency extended the total forbearance period to 15 months.

When Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act last year, it allowed borrowers with federally backed mortgages to request up to 12 months of forbearance — divided into two 180-day increments — if they experienced financial hardship.

In forbearance, a borrower is allowed to suspend payments by extending the loan’s terms. There is no set cutoff date for the 18-month forbearance period because borrowers have entered and exited forbearance at different times.

“Today’s extensions of the COVID-19 forbearance period to 18 months and foreclosure and eviction moratoriums through the end of June will help align mortgage policies across the federal government,” FHFA Director Mark Calabria said.

“Today’s extensions of the COVID-19 forbearance period to 18 months and foreclosure and eviction moratoriums through the end of June will help align mortgage policies across the federal government,” FHFA Director Mark Calabria said.

Bloomberg News

The FHFA also said Thursday that it was extending a moratorium on foreclosures and real estate-owned evictions until June 30 for loans backed by Fannie and Freddie. Because housing prices have jumped dramatically, borrowers are more likely to be able to sell their homes than go into foreclosure than in financial crisis in 2008, when many were underwater on their mortgages.

The foreclosure moratorium had been set to expire on March 31, but the FHFA is offering another three-month extension only for single-family mortgages backed by the government-sponsored enterprises. The REO eviction moratorium applies to properties acquired by the GSEs through foreclosures or deed-in-lieu transactions.

Earlier this month, the Biden administration announced similar extensions of relief for loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs and Department of Agriculture.

“Today’s extensions of the COVID-19 forbearance period to 18 months and foreclosure and eviction moratoriums through the end of June will help align mortgage policies across the federal government,” FHFA Director Mark Calabria said in a press release. “Borrowers and the housing finance market alike can benefit during the pandemic from the consistent treatment of mortgages regardless of who owns or backs them.”

Roughly 2.6 million homeowners were in forbearance plans as of Feb. 14, representing 5.29% of loans serviced, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Monday.

The share of Fannie- and Freddie-backed loans in forbearance fell slightly to 2.97% last week, from 3.01% on Feb. 8, the MBA said. By comparison, 5.22% of all loans serviced are currently in forbearance plans, the MBA said.

Source: nationalmortgagenews.com

Gauge of U.S. pending home sales declines to a six-month low

A gauge of U.S. pending home sales fell to a six-month low in January as buyers competed for a limited number of properties.

The National Association of Realtors’ index of pending home sales decreased 2.8% from the prior month to 122.8, according to data released Thursday. December data was revised to a 0.5% gain after a previously reported decline. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for no change in January.

The decline is the latest sign that the housing boom may be starting to cool amid soaring prices, a lack of inventory and rising mortgage rates. The residential real estate market has been a bright spot in the economy as it recovers from the pandemic. Contract signings are still up 8.2% from a year ago on an unadjusted basis.

“There are simply not enough homes to match the demand on the market” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR, said in a statement. Still, Yun said he expects inventory to rise in the coming months.

The lack of inventory thus far has driven prices upwards, putting homeownership out of reach for some, said Joel Kan, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting.

“Various other data sources have pointed to higher median sales prices and record-high purchase mortgage loan sizes, all of which have started to create affordability challenges in many parts of the country,” he said. “While home building has picked up to attempt to meet the high demand, increased listings of existing homes will be needed in the coming months to alleviate this shortage of housing inventory.”

By region, contract signings fell in the West, Northeast and Midwest. In the South, the index for pending home sales rose to the highest since August.

Source: nationalmortgagenews.com

Mortgage and refinance rates today, February 26, 2021

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates soared yesterday, rising by a greater amount than we’ve seen in a long time. Of course, they’re still very low in a historical context.

Markets often correct themselves after sharp movements such as yesterday’s. And I’m expecting that mortgage rates may fall today but probably modestly. However, during such volatile times, markets can shift direction quickly and they certainly read as jittery at the moment.

Find and lock a low rate (Feb 26th, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed 3.058% 3.061% +0.08%
Conventional 15 year fixed 2.488% 2.497% Unchanged
Conventional 20 year fixed 2.983% 2.99% +0.09%
Conventional 10 year fixed 2.567% 2.587% +0.01%
30 year fixed FHA 2.816% 3.495% +0.06%
15 year fixed FHA 2.517% 3.1% Unchanged
5 year ARM FHA 2.5% 3.213% +0.01%
30 year fixed VA 2.375% 2.547% Unchanged
15 year fixed VA 2.25% 2.571% Unchanged
5 year ARM VA 2.5% 2.392% +0.01%
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a low rate (Feb 26th, 2021)


COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Overnight, CNBC summed up what happened yesterday:

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note [which mortgage rates often shadow] briefly surpassed 1.6% on Thursday, its highest in over a year, fueled by expectations for higher economic growth and inflation.

We’ve been highlighting the same two factors for some time now. And they haven’t gone away.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

But, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So be guided by your gut and your personal tolerance for risk.

Compare top lenders

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasurys edged up to 1.48% from 1.45%. (Normally, bad for mortgage rates. But yesterday’s rise was reflected in yesterday’s rates and yields are now falling.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
  • Major stock indexes were mixed on opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
  • Oil prices fell to $62.54 from $63.02 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates* because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
  • Gold prices fell to $1,756 from $1,785 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Fell to 59 from 69 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A change of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. The Fed is now a huge player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to dip a little or hold steady.

Find and lock a low rate (Feb 26th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (way over $1 trillion) should put continuing downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work miracles all the time. And read “For once, the Fed DOES affect mortgage rates. Here’s why” if you want to understand this aspect of what’s happening
  2. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  3. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
  5. When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  6. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

I’m expecting mortgage rates today to edge lower or remain unchanged. But, as always, that could change as the day progresses. Indeed, such intraday swings have become an irritating feature of markets. And they’re especially likely at times like this when investors are so skittish.

Nothing’s changed. And, if there is a fall in mortgage rates today, it will likely be markets correcting themselves after too sharp a rise yesterday. This is a common phenomenon after exceptional volatility.

So don’t think such a fall means the pressures that have recently been pushing those rates higher have suddenly evaporated. It seems to me highly improbable that we’ll see those falling back to record-low levels anytime soon.

Indeed, more rises seem more likely for the time being, absent some sudden and very bad economic news.

For more background on my wider thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday soon after 10 a.m. (ET).

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But rates then rose. And Freddie’s Feb. 25 report puts that weekly average at 2.97%, up from the previous week’s 2.81%, and the highest it’s been since mid-2020.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21, Q3/21 and Q4/21).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s and the MBA’s were updated on Feb. 18 and 19 respectively. But Freddie now publishes forecasts quarterly and its figures are from mid-January:

Forecaster Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21
Fannie Mae 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9%
Freddie Mac 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%
MBA 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.4%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there’s certainly a widening spread as the year progresses.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Feb 26th, 2021)

Compare top lenders

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Source: themortgagereports.com

Mortgage and refinance rates today, February 25, 2021

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates nudged higher yet again yesterday. Of course, these rates remain exceptionally low by historical standards and are at dream levels for most. But they’re not like they were in 2020 and early January.

First thing, it was looking likely that mortgage rates will rise again today, partly because this morning’s weekly job figures were better than many expected. Read on for a fuller analysis.

Find and lock a low rate (Feb 26th, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed 2.982% 2.985% +0.02%
Conventional 15 year fixed 2.488% 2.497% Unchanged
Conventional 20 year fixed 2.894% 2.901% -0.03%
Conventional 10 year fixed 2.556% 2.58% -0.01%
30 year fixed FHA 2.762% 3.438% +0.02%
15 year fixed FHA 2.517% 3.099% Unchanged
5 year ARM FHA 2.5% 3.201% Unchanged
30 year fixed VA 2.372% 2.544% Unchanged
15 year fixed VA 2.25% 2.571% Unchanged
5 year ARM VA 2.5% 2.379% Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a low rate (Feb 26th, 2021)


COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

On the one hand, investors want to believe that the pandemic will soon be over and the economy will boom. And they like that’s looking increasingly probable. But, on the other, they fear that a boom will unleash inflation, something that very much bothers those who hold fixed-interest bonds — including mortgage-backed securities.

The trouble is, both that belief and that fear tend to push up mortgage rates. And it’s that double-whammy that’s currently driving those rates higher.

Maybe some momentous news will come along that drags mortgage rates lower again. But it’s hard to imagine what might do so quickly. But read on for something that just possibly could.

Still, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

But, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So be guided by your gut and your personal tolerance for risk.

Compare top lenders

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasurys edged up to 1.45% from 1.43%. (Bad for mortgage rates) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
  • Major stock indexes were mostly lower on opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
  • Oil prices rose to $63.02 from $62.25 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates* because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
  • Gold prices inched higher to $1,785 from $1,784 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Climbed to 69 from 57 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A change of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. The Fed is now a huge player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to move higher.

Find and lock a low rate (Feb 26th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (way over $1 trillion) should put continuing downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work miracles all the time. And read “For once, the Fed DOES affect mortgage rates. Here’s why” if you want to understand this aspect of what’s happening
  2. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  3. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
  5. When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  6. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

I’m expecting mortgage rates to rise today. But, as always, that could change as the day progresses. Indeed, such intraday swings have become an irritating feature of markets.

Yesterday and recently, we’ve been saying that mortgage rates are unlikely to fall soon, absent some terrible news, such as a vaccine-resistant strain of SARS-CoV-2 emerging. Well, also yesterday, The New York Times reported:

A new form of the coronavirus is spreading rapidly in New York City, and it carries a worrisome mutation that may weaken the effectiveness of vaccines, two teams of researchers have found.

The new variant, called B.1.526, first appeared in samples collected in the city in November. By the middle of this month, it accounted for about one in four viral sequences appearing in a database shared by scientists.


A New Coronavirus Variant Is Spreading in New York, Researchers Report — NYT, Feb. 24, 2021

The research is yet to be peer-reviewed and may turn out to be nothing. But the report does underline the uncertainty that we all have to contend with at the moment.

If I were you, I wouldn’t delay locking just on the basis of one story. It could take months before markets take the threat seriously — and even then only if it proves accurate. In the meantime, it currently looks more likely that rates will rise or remain close to current levels between now and when you have to close.

For more background on my wider thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday soon after 10 a.m. (ET).

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But rates then rose. And Freddie’s Feb. 25 report (today) puts that weekly average at 2.97%, up from the previous week’s 2.81%, and the highest it’s been for a year.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21, Q3/21 and Q4/21).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s and the MBA’s were updated on Feb. 18 and 19 respectively. But Freddie now publishes forecasts quarterly and its figures are from mid-January:

Forecaster Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21
Fannie Mae 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9%
Freddie Mac 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%
MBA 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.4%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there’s certainly a widening spread as the year progresses.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Feb 26th, 2021)

Compare top lenders

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Source: themortgagereports.com

How will a surge in bond yields affect your mortgage, car loans and 401(k)? – USA TODAY

Big gains are likely for economy this year even as COVID-19 damage lingers

Fed meeting:Powell says economy is ‘a long way’ from Fed’s goals and central bank has no plans to raise interest rates or reduce bond purchases

Should you fear higher yields? 

Some investors worry that an increase in bond yields and longer-term interest rates will end the market’s runof steady gains. Remember, stocks have rebounded to record highs following a historic plunge last spring. These gains could be threatened because higher yields make it more expensive to borrow money, and that tends to slow down economic growth, which could be bad for stocks.

usatoday.com

Pending Home Sales Fall in January as Inventory Constrains Buyers>

The numbers: The index of pending home sales fell 2.8% in January after four consecutive months of declines, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. The index captures real-estate transactions where a contract was signed but the sale has not yet closed, making it an indicator of where existing-home sales will go in the months ahead.

The median forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch had called for a 0.5% decline in pending sales on a monthly basis.

“Pending home sales fell in January because there are simply not enough homes to match the demand on the market,” Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, said in the report. “That said, there has been an increase in permits and requests to build new homes.”

Compared to 2019, pending sales were up 13%, indicating that the housing market remains strong despite the weakness that has crept in during the winter months.

What happened: Pending sales didn’t fall across all regions, as contract signings increased slightly in the South. The largest decline in pending sales occurred in the West, where the index dropped 7.8%, closely followed by the Northeast (-7.4%).

The big picture: A record-low inventory of homes is leaving buyers with few options to choose from, and builders have even begun selling a vast array of properties that haven’t been built yet to meet this demand.

But there’s evidence that demand could begin to suffer as affordability concerns grow. “The timely weekly mortgage purchase applications index is signaling a slowing in activity,” said Rubeela Farooqi, the chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, while citing mortgage application data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The latest reading signified the lowest level for mortgage applications since mid-May of last year, Farooqi noted.

Some of the decline in the volume of mortgage applications was a reflection of the disruption in Texas caused by recent winter storms. But generally speaking, rising mortgage rates are reducing interest from home buyers to an extent. With prices also quickly rising, buying a home is becoming less and less affordable, which could hinder home sales in the months to come.

What they’re saying: “Home buyers are staying surprisingly active during the colder months. However, buyer demand is getting squeezed by a scarcity of ‘For Sale’ signs and rising mortgage rates,” said Realtor.com senior economist George Ratiu.

Source: marketwatch.com

Mortgage and refinance rates today, February 24, 2021

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates rose yet again yesterday. But it was the smallest increase for a couple of weeks. Is that any consolation?

Unfortunately, mortgage rates look set to rise again today, perhaps appreciably.

Find and lock a low rate (Feb 25th, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed 2.966% 2.969% +0.02%
Conventional 15 year fixed 2.493% 2.502% -0.02%
Conventional 20 year fixed 2.921% 2.928% +0.03%
Conventional 10 year fixed 2.577% 2.588% Unchanged
30 year fixed FHA 2.74% 3.416% +0.05%
15 year fixed FHA 2.515% 3.097% +0.03%
5 year ARM FHA 2.5% 3.201% -0.01%
30 year fixed VA 2.375% 2.547% +0.13%
15 year fixed VA 2.25% 2.571% +0.12%
5 year ARM VA 2.5% 2.379% -0.01%
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a low rate (Feb 25th, 2021)


COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Clearly, the mood on Wall Street remains upbeat over the economy’s future prospects. And that (along with some fears over future inflation) is what has delivered seven rises — including some appreciable ones — and one small fall in mortgage rates over the last eight working days.

Of course, markets are notorious for swift switches in sentiment. And there are some threats to this sunny optimism in the medium term. But there are no obvious and immediate events on my radar that might trigger such a switch and bring significantly lower mortgage rates anytime soon.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

But, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So be guided by your gut and your personal tolerance for risk.

Compare top lenders

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasurys climbed to 1.43% from 1.35%. (Bad for mortgage rates) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
  • Major stock indexes were mostly lower on opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
  • Oil prices rose to $62.25 from $60.82 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates* because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
  • Gold prices dropped to $1,784 from $1,797 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Nudged up to 57 from 53 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A change of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. The Fed is now a huge player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to move higher.

Find and lock a low rate (Feb 25th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (way over $1 trillion) should put continuing downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work miracles all the time. And read “For once, the Fed DOES affect mortgage rates. Here’s why” if you want to understand this aspect of what’s happening
  2. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  3. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
  5. When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  6. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

I’m expecting mortgage rates to rise today. But, as always, that could change as the day progresses. Indeed, such intraday swings have become an irritating feature of markets recently.

As I said earlier, there are some threats to the cheerfulness that’s seized investors and pushed up mortgage rates. But they may not happen soon — or at all. They include the:

  • Slowing down of the COVID-19 vaccination program in ways that delay further economic recovery
  • Failure of President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package
  • Possible future emergence of a new variation (or mutation) of SARS-CoV-2 that’s resistant to existing vaccines
  • Crashing of the stock market, which some financial commentators believe may be on the cards

Any of those (and, no doubt, other unpredictable and mostly unwelcome events) would probably send mortgage rates significantly lower. But you have to ask yourself how likely it is one will arise before you have to close on your mortgage.

For more background on my wider thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday soon after 10 a.m. (ET).

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But rates then rose. And Freddie’s Feb. 18 report puts that weekly average at 2.81%, up from the previous week’s 2.73%, and the highest it’s been since mid-November. But even that weekly average fails to take into account all the rises we saw that week, nor ones this week.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21, Q3/21 and Q4/21).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s and the MBA’s were updated on Feb. 18 and 19 respectively. But Freddie now publishes forecasts quarterly and its figures are from mid-January:

Forecaster Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21
Fannie Mae 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9%
Freddie Mac 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%
MBA 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.4%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there’s certainly a widening spread as the year progresses.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Feb 25th, 2021)

Compare top lenders

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Source: themortgagereports.com

Mortgage And Refinance Rates Today, Feb. 23 | Rates steady – The Mortgage Reports

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates rose again yesterday. And the rise was sharper than looked likely first thing that morning. When we say that markets can turn on a dime, we’re not kidding.

As those markets opened, they looked set to take a breather, with less movement than we’ve grown used to recently. But that could be the quiet before the storm ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony this morning before the Senate Finance Committee. Still, mortgage rates may hold steady or close to steady today, subject to what Powell says.

Find and lock a low rate (Feb 25th, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed 2.949% 2.952% Unchanged
Conventional 15 year fixed 2.51% 2.519% -0.01%
Conventional 20 year fixed 2.887% 2.894% Unchanged
Conventional 10 year fixed 2.569% 2.593% Unchanged
30 year fixed FHA 2.69% 3.366% Unchanged
15 year fixed FHA 2.481% 3.063% Unchanged
5 year ARM FHA 2.5% 3.213% Unchanged
30 year fixed VA 2.25% 2.421% Unchanged
15 year fixed VA 2.128% 2.448% Unchanged
5 year ARM VA 2.5% 2.392% Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a low rate (Feb 25th, 2021)


COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

A positive narrative has taken hold in markets as investors savor the prospect of a post-pandemic boom arriving sooner rather than later. As The New York Times’s Ben Casselman put it yesterday:

When the pandemic ends, cash could be unleashed like melting snow in the Rockies.

And it’s that brand of optimism that currently keeping mortgage rates high. Of course, there’s always a chance of some terrible news coming along and dragging those rates lower. But, absent that, it’s beginning to look as if we may be stuck with higher ones for some time to come.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

But, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So be guided by your gut and your personal tolerance for risk.

Compare top lenders

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasurys nudged up to 1.35% from 1.33%. (Bad for mortgage rates) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
  • Major stock indexes were lower on opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
  • Oil prices rose to $60.82 from $60.62 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates* because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
  • Gold prices inched lower to $1,797 from $1,805 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Edged down to 53 from 56 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A change of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. The Fed is now a huge player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or barely changed.

Find and lock a low rate (Feb 25th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (way over $1 trillion) should put continuing downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work miracles all the time. And read “For once, the Fed DOES affect mortgage rates. Here’s why” if you want to understand this aspect of what’s happening
  2. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  3. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
  5. When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  6. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

I’m expecting mortgage rates to hold steady today or just inch either side of the neutral line. But, as always, that could change as the day progresses — as it did yesterday.

The same three factors continue to fuel optimism in markets:

  • A vaccination program that’s finally reaching serious numbers of Americans and that could herald brighter economic times ahead
  • Much lower COVID-19 numbers for infections, hospitalizations and deaths
  • The president’s $1.9 trillion pandemic relief measures, which so far remain on track to pass into law

Of course, there are corresponding threats that could bring mortgage rates crashing lower. Fears include a sharp stock market correction and the future emergence of a new strain of SARS-CoV-2 that could prove resistant to existing vaccines. But you’d have to be exceptionally brave to rely on one of those — or some other disaster — occurring before your closing date.

For more background on my wider thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday soon after 10 a.m. (ET).

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But rates then rose. And Freddie’s Feb. 18 report puts that weekly average at 2.81%, up from the previous week’s 2.73%, and the highest it’s been since mid-November. But even that weekly average fails to take into account all the rises we saw that week, nor ones this week.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21, Q3/21 and Q4/21).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s and the MBA’s were updated on Feb. 18 and 19 respectively. But Freddie now publishes forecasts quarterly and its figures are from mid-January:

Forecaster Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21
Fannie Mae 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9%
Freddie Mac 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%
MBA 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.4%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there’s certainly a widening spread as the year progresses.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Feb 25th, 2021)

Compare top lenders

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Source: themortgagereports.com