Uncommon Knowledge
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The long-term unemployed remained at 1.2 million, making up 18.7% of the unemployed. Meanwhile, participation in the workforce held steady at 62.5% for the third month running. On the part-time front, the situation was relatively stable, with about 4.4 million people working part-time for economic reasons, such as reduced hours or the inability to find … [Read more…]
Recent swings in mortgage rates are helping to drag down contract signings, which fell 5% in January, the National Association of REALTORS® reported this week. Pending home sales, a forward-looking indicator of housing activity based on contract signings, were down 8.8% compared to a year earlier.
“The job market is solid, and the country’s total wealth reached a record high due to stock market and home price gains,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “This combination of economic conditions is favorable for home buying. However, consumers are showing extra sensitivity to changes in mortgage rates in the current cycle, and that’s impacting home sales.”
In recent weeks, mortgage rates have started creeping back toward 7%. Freddie Mac reports the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.94% this week, marking a two-month high. “While this is still below the rates seen in the fall of 2023, it impacts home buyers’ excitement about entering a spring market,” says NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz. The monthly mortgage payment for a $400,000 home, assuming a 20% down payment, now translates to about $2,116, Lautz adds. “For first-time buyers who are the most price-sensitive, the rise in mortgage rates poses a cause for concern, as they may be priced out of the market.”
Indeed, “the recent boomerang in rates has dampened already tentative homebuyer momentum as we approach the spring, a historically busy season for home buying,” adds Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “While sales of newly built homes are trending in a positive direction, higher rates and elevated prices continue to pose affordability challenges that may leave potential home buyers on the sidelines.”
Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending Feb. 29:
Source: nar.realtor
NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun said in remarks accompanying the release that high mortgage costs were the main barrier to homebuying intentions in the present market. “This combination of economic conditions is favorable for homebuying,” Yan said. “However, consumers are showing extra sensitivity to changes in mortgage rates in the currently cycle, and that’s impacting … [Read more…]
Mortgage rates are still above 7% and haven’t been able to break below 6.50% for some time now. With mortgage rates higher, will this stop inventory from growing year over year? Some would say yes, on a year-over-year basis, of course.
Inventory is very seasonal, and we are about to start our seasonal increase in inventory. But even before that seasonal boost, we are showing year over year growth in inventory despite higher rates. Most home sellers are buyers of homes, so the action we are seeing this year is a healthy step in the right direction to get more balance in the housing market.
Here is a look at inventory last week:
New listings data is growing yearly, but it’s still a bit too low for my liking in 2024; I had hoped for more by this point. Now that we are entering the spring selling season when active inventory typically grows, we should get a boost over the next few months on the new listings data to match the spring season in previous years — and certainly above 2023 levels.
Weekly new listing data for the last week over several previous years:
As we head into the seasonal inventory increase, we will watch how higher rates impact inventory data. Last year, I was looking for inventory to grow between 11,000 and 17,000 per week if mortgage rates exceeded 7.25%. I will still look for inventory to grow at this level this year with higher rates. Also, if mortgage rates head lower again, then we need to track how this impacts the new listings and inventory as well. I have a simple inventory growth model: as mortgage rates head higher, this can lead to weakness in demand, which means it takes longer to sell a home and inventory can grow.
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity, and this data line is very seasonal. When mortgage rates move higher and demand gets hit, the price-cut percentage can grow. When rates fall, they can head lower than an average year.
Inventory is higher than last year and we might have found the bottom already in inventory, so as the year moves on, the price cut percentage data should be rising. We will keep an eye out on this to see if any actual aggressive trends happen either way.
Here is the price cut percentage for the last week over the past several years
The 10-year yield is the key for housing in 2024. In my 2024 forecast, I put the 10-year yield range between 3.21%-4.25%, with a critical line in the sand at 3.37%. If the economic data stays firm, we shouldn’t break below 3.21%, but if the labor data gets weaker, that line in the sand will be tested. This means mortgage rates should stay between 5.75%-7.25% with a baseline assumption that the spreads will be bad for most of the year. The 10-year yield has traded above 4.25%, but mortgage rates never got to 7.25%, so the spreads have acted better than I thought they would.
We dodged a bullet last week as the PCE inflation data was muted. Headline PCE inflation for 12 months is running at 2.4%. We were very close to breaking over the critical line in the sand I have been talking about at 4.34%, but it didn’t break and we ended the week at 4.18%. We had some softer economic data come out on Friday and commentary from Fed presidents, so the 10-year yield was having a Friday block party, as you can see below.
As we have discussed, the 3.80% level for the 10-year yield is crucial, and the 4.34% level is critical. We haven’t broken either yet. We don’t want to break over 4.34% because we would see some more market drama and mortgage rates could head much higher. With the negative purchase application data we have had recently, the last thing we want is for the 10-year yield to get above 4.34%, which would mean dealing with mortgage rates between 7.25%-8% in a marketplace that is already slowing down with higher rates.
Mortgage rates didn’t move much last week and we haven’t hit my peak mortgage rate call of 7.25% yet with bond yields this high. We have jobs Friday coming up this week, so that will be interesting. The 10-year yield and mortgage rates have been wild since March 2022.
Since mortgage rates have been rising toward 7% and above, the purchase application data has been trending negative on a weekly basis this year. We have had five weeks of negative data, which broke our positive streak of eight weeks when rates were falling. While this marketplace isn’t the crashing home sales marketplace of 2022, it’s not growing, so we will be hovering around this 4 million mark for a while until we see lower rates.
Since November 2023, we have had eight positive and five negative purchase application prints after making holiday adjustments. Year to date, we have had two positive prints versus five negative prints. This is a carbon copy of what happened in 2023 when rates went higher. However, we worked from a lower bar in home sales until 2024. So, don’t expect a massive existing home sales print in the next NAR existing home sales report like we did last year.
Here comes the jobs report with the 10-year yield still close enough to the critical technical level, making this week very interesting. This week we will get job openings, ADP, jobless claims and the BLS jobs Friday report. Since I am a labor-over-inflation guy, this week means a lot to my work for housing because I believe the housing market moves with the 10-year yield.
Source: housingwire.com
The numbers: Pending home sales fell in January as rising mortgage rates pushed buyers out of the housing market.
Pending home sales fell 4.9% in January from the previous month, according to the monthly index released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
Pending home sales reflect transactions where the contract has been signed for an existing-home sale, but the sale has not yet closed. Economists view it as an indicator of the direction of existing-home sales in subsequent months.
The drop in pending home sales was the largest since August 2023, when they fell 5%.
The sales pace fell short of expectations on Wall Street. Economists were expecting pending home sales to increase by 1.5% in January.
Transactions were down 8.8% from last year.
Big picture: Mortgage rates began their ascent to 7% towards the end of January, when the market saw that the Federal Reserve would not be cutting interest rates in March.
Even slight increases in rates can affect how much some buyers can afford to buy a home. At 7%, the monthly payment on a $400,000 home would be roughly $2,700, and buyers would potentially need to earn $108,440 a year to afford that comfortably.
Looking ahead, applications for purchase mortgages are trending down, as mortgage rates remain over 7% at the end of February. That indicates that sales activity may be muted in the coming months.
What the Realtors said: “The job market is solid, and the country’s total wealth reached a record high due to stock market and home price gains,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR, said in a statement.
While “this combination of economic conditions is favorable for home buying,” he added, “consumers are showing extra sensitivity to changes in mortgage rates in the current cycle, and that’s impacting home sales.”
What they’re saying: “Pending home sales, or contract signings, measure the first formal step in the home sale transaction, namely, the point when a buyer and seller have agreed on the price and terms,” Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, said in a statement.
“Pending home sales tend to lead existing home sales by roughly one-to-two months and are a good indicator of market conditions,” she added. And “the recent uptick in rates could mean slower seasonally adjusted sales as the spring homebuying season kicks off.”
Source: marketwatch.com
Prospects for the spring market look a bit brighter as January numbers show an increase in both the pace of existing home sales and the size of the unsold inventory. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said sales of pre-owned single-family houses, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperative apartments were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million. This was an increase of 3.1 percent from the December rate of 3.88 million and was 1.7 percent below the pace in January 2023. December sales figures were also revised slightly higher, cutting the previously reported year-over-year decline nearly in half to -3.7 percent.
Single-family home sales rose from 3.48 million in December to 3.6 million, a gain of 3.4 percent, and remained lower year-over-year by 1.4 percent. Condo sales were flat at an annual rate of 400,000 and were 4.8 percent lower than one year earlier.
Existing home sales beat analysts’ expectations, but not by much. The consensus forecast from Econoday was 3.97 million.
“While home sales remain sizably lower than a couple of years ago, January’s monthly gain is the start of more supply and demand,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Listings were modestly higher, and home buyers are taking advantage of lower mortgage rates compared to late last year.”
Those listings did expand in January, up 2.0 percent to 1.01 million units. This is estimated to be a 3.0-month supply at the current rate of sales, but that estimate is virtually unchanged from that in both December and January 2023. Properties typically remained on the market for 36 days in January, up from 29 days in December and 33 days in January 2023.
NAR’s current president Kevin Sears said the association has been pushing Congress to pass H.R. 1321, The More Homes on the Market Act. The bill would lower taxes on home sales and hopefully bring additional inventory to the market. “More listings will help Americans move,” Sears said.
Home prices continued to rise, posting the seventh consecutive month of annual price gains. The median for all residential sales climbed 5.1 percent to $379,100. The median single-family home price was up 5.0 percent to $383,500 while condo prices appreciated 5.7 percent to $321,100.
The median home price reached an all-time high for the month of January,” Yun said. “Multiple offers are common on mid-priced homes, and many homes were still sold within a month. The elevated share of cash deals – 32 percent – indicated a market full of multiple offers and propelled by record-high housing wealth.”
First-time buyers were responsible for 28 percent of January sales and individual investors and second-home buyers accounted for 17 percent. Only 2.0 percent of sales were considered to be distressed.
All four major regions posted annual price increases but only one saw annual growth in sales. In the Northeast the sales rate of 480,000 units was unchanged from December but 5.9 percent lower than in January 2023. Median prices jumped 10.1 percent to $434.300.
A 2.2 percent increase brought Midwest sales to an annual rate of 950,000 in January, down 3.1 percent for the year. The median price was $271,700, up 7.6 percent from January 2023.
Existing home sales in the South rose 4.0 percent from December to an annual rate of 1.84 million, closing to within 1.6 percent of sales 12 months earlier. Median prices were up 4.1 percent to $345,100.
Sales in the West rose 4.3 percent compared to December to 730,000 annual units, 2.8 percent higher than the prior January. The median price in the region gained 6.3 percent to $572,100.
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced on Wednesday the addition of a home repair estimate app to its package of NAR Realtor Benefits for members.
Curbio, a provider of pre-sale home improvement services that requires payment at closing, will provide its “Build Your Own Estimate” mobile app to NAR members, which offers free repair estimates for home inspections upon the upload of a PDF document. Members will also “receive a free digital floor plan with every Curbio project,” according to the announcement.
“This collaboration reflects our dedication to equipping NAR members with innovative solutions that cater to the evolving needs of their clients, ensuring a smooth experience for sellers and buyers alike,” said Rhonny Barragan, NAR vice president of strategic alliances in an announcement of the deal.
Second Century Ventures, NAR’s strategic investment division, included Curbio in its “REACH” startup growth program in 2019. Later that year, Curbio won the “pitch battle” segment at NAR’s second annual Innovation, Opportunity & Investment (iOi) summit that took place in Seattle.
“Today’s sellers want to work with real estate agents who offer added value, including the ability to get their home market-ready and spruced up without having to pay upfront,” said Olivia Mariani, CMO at Curbio. “We are thrilled to provide NAR members and their clients with access to our reliable pre-listing home improvements with pay-at-closing terms.”
Founded in 2017, Curbio is based in Potomac, Md. The company also lists Comcast Ventures, Revolution and Camber Creek as investors.
NAR members can navigate to a dedicated page on Curbio’s website to claim their new benefits, and the mobile app is available on both Apple‘s iOS and Google‘s Android operating systems. The company operates within a 40-mile radius of more than 60 major U.S. markets, according to the page.
Source: housingwire.com
Significantly more Americans own a home now than a decade ago, but the disparity between Black homeownership rates and those of other racial and ethnic groups has grown wider, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Overall, U.S. homeownership increased over the decade to 2022, with 10.5 million more homeowners across the country, the study by the trade group found, drawing on Census data. Asian Americans experienced the sharpest increase over the period, with ownership rates soaring to a historic high of 63.3%. Hispanic Americans saw a gain of 3.2 million households, to reach a new peak of 51.1%.
While Black Americans also saw homeownership advance, the gain was modest. And at 44.1%, their rate is notably lower than that for Asian, Hispanic and White Americans. The gap between Blacks and Whites – the highest among the four major groups – widened by a percentage point from 2012, to 28 percentage points.
“Minority homeownership gained ground,” Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research, said in a statement. “While the gains should be celebrated, the pathway into homeownership remains arduous for minority buyers.”
The NAR’s analysis showed 55% of Asian and 51% of Black and Hispanic howe owners were first-time buyers, something that places them at a particular disadvantage in a market marked by high prices and limited supply. That’s because first-timers “must rely on down-payment sources beyond gained housing equity,” Lautz said.
Other challenges for would-be buyers of color include difficulties in saving for a down payment — as they typically spend higher proportions of their income on rent and paying back student loans.
Black homebuyers, for instance, reported the highest levels of student-loan debt among all groups, with 41% carrying a record high median debt of $46,000, while 29% of Hispanic buyers had student loan debt with a median of $33,000. The NAR has also cited data showing Black Americans draw on pension or 401(k) savings more than any other group.
Citing data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, the NAR last year said Black and Hispanic homebuyers face additional barriers in securing mortgages, such as higher denial rates compared with their White and Asian counterparts.
For those who do obtain mortgages, the interest rates tend to be higher on average, Tuesday’s report showed. For loans originated in 2022, 20% for Blacks and 21% for Hispanics exceeded 6%, in contrast with lower percentages among Asian and White borrowers.
Source: nationalmortgagenews.com
Southern California’s real estate market is as cold as the snow currently adorning the peaks of its mountains. Interest rates are up. Inventory is down. And deals are few and far between.
In slow markets, the agents at the top — those with experience, connections and plenty of clients — typically maintain a modest but steady stream of business. It’s the agents at the bottom — those just getting into the industry who’ve only managed to close a handful of sales — who starve.
As those agents have grown more desperate for leads, they’re trying alternative ways of finding them. Some are outsourcing the work overseas, and others are turning to AI or automation in a last-ditch attempt to find a seller.
During the record-breaking pandemic market, there were so many transactions that most determined real estate agents were able to make a living. More than 43,000 single-family homes traded hands in L.A. County in 2021, and more than 42,000 were sold in 2022, according to the Multiple Listing Service.
During that time, tens of thousands joined the National Assn. of Realtors, or NAR, with membership swelling to a record 1.6 million in 2022, up 200,000 since 2020. Real estate wasn’t just a solid job; it was a way to leap into a higher tax bracket.
But then the market started to freeze in 2023 as mortgage rates shot up. Only 11,539 single-family homes sold that year, and sales are at a similar pace so far this year.
Some agents are simply calling it quits. In California alone, NAR lost 9,723 members from December 2023 to January 2024 — a 4.75% decline . But even after the drop, California still holds the second-most active Realtors in the nation at 194,964, and they’re all fighting for an extremely small pool of sellers.
At the peak of the pandemic market, Tyler Andrews, 29, tried his hand at real estate in the Inland Empire, thinking he would use his outgoing personality to sell homes as L.A. residents flocked to the area during the pandemic. He got his license and helped a few friends with their house hunts, but ultimately didn’t earn any commission and stopped in 2023.
He’s one of many agents who rushed into real estate hoping for a taste of California’s latest gold rush.
From the outside, listing a house in a hot market seems like the easiest of get-rich-quick schemes. Homes sell in days, and a 3% agent’s commission on a $1-million sale comes out to $30,000. If you represent both sides of the deal, it turns into $60,000.
But the real estate industry isn’t an easy one to break into. You typically get paid only if you close a sale, and in any market, most homeowners still prefer to go with an agent with experience.
In a hot market, sellers find an agent. In a cold market, agents have to find a seller. The situation is coming to a boil in many areas, such as Leimert Park, where residents have been barraged by agents asking whether they’re interested in putting their homes up for sale.
Cold calling is time consuming — and stressful, considering the ire it draws from those on the receiving end. So some agents are handing that thankless task to machines.
A handful of companies such as Slybroadcast and Salesmsg offer “ringless voicemail,” a robocall-adjacent tool enabling agents to send pre-recorded messages straight to your voicemail box without your phone ever ringing. The messages are often meant to trick you into thinking you missed a call, saying things like, “Sorry I missed you! Give me a call back whenever you get a chance.”
In 2022, the Federal Communications Commission declared the trend a form of robocalling and said it’s illegal if the caller doesn’t have the recipient’s prior consent. But that hasn’t stopped agents from sending out such voicemails to potential clients.
“I don’t have time to cold call all day,” said one real estate agent who asked to remain anonymous due to the potential taboo of using the technology. “I have to find clients somehow, and in a market like this, you have to get creative.”
The thinking is this: An agent could spend eight hours a day calling every home in a neighborhood to ask whether they want to sell their home. Or they could send out 500 ringless voicemails simultaneously, and those who bother to call back have a better chance of needing the services of a real estate agent.
Andrews said he had heard of other agents trying such technology as the market got colder in 2023, but he never bothered doing it himself because it didn’t seem authentic. It also would’ve been an extra expense — one he didn’t have a budget for.
Mary Thompson has owned her home in Beverly Crest for more than a decade. Over the last year, she’s received multiple ringless voicemails asking whether she wants to list or buy a house.
“I was fooled by the first one. I called back and ended up on the phone with an agent for 15 minutes asking about my plans as a homeowner,” she said. “I don’t bother calling back anymore.”
U.S. consumers received more than 55 billion robocalls in 2023, 5 billion more than the previous year, according to the YouMail Robocall Index. Roughly 15 billion were telemarketing calls, and 8 billion were scams. California consistently ranks as the state with the second-most robocalls, behind only Texas.
As a response to thousands of unwanted call complaints, the FCC has established a Robocall Response Team to combat the influx of robocalls, many of which are targeted toward homeowners.
Last year, the commission shut down a robocalling campaign from MV Realty, a real estate brokerage that was sending out robocalls with misleading claims about mortgages. A whistleblower from the company told a Seattle news outlet that employees were directed how to use software called PhoneBurner and required to make at least 450 calls per day.
Other companies such as VoiceSpin give agents access to auto-dialing software, which, like it sounds, automatically dials numbers from a list. VoiceSpin claims to use AI and machine learning and enables agents to drop voicemails straight into inboxes, record calls or even use local area codes so you’re more likely to pick up.
In that case, you’d be talking to an agent, but sometimes you might find yourself unwittingly conversing with a robot.
The tech company Ylopo recently uploaded a video showcasing an AI assistant conversing with a potential home buyer planning a move to the North or South Carolina coast. The company said it’s “one of thousands of AI calls being made daily already for Ylopo clients.”
Cinc, a real estate lead generation platform, offers agents an AI-powered digital assistant that purposefully misspells words and uses emojis to make interactions with potential leads appear more human.
The NAR itself offers an AI scriptwriter powered by ChatGPT that analyzes housing trends so that agents can appear more knowledgeable about the market. Agents can even choose the tone: professional, engaging or conversational.
Earlier this month, the FCC continued its fight against robocalling by outlawing robocalls that use AI-generated voices. Since the ruling is so fresh, it’s unclear how companies utilizing the technology will be affected.
In a market as slow as this one, even finding numbers to call becomes a challenge; tech becomes useless if it’s being wasted on the wrong potential clients. So many agents are looking for leads.
On Fiverr, an online marketplace for freelance services, a glut of listings has popped up offering agents potential leads on prospective buyers or sellers. One of the most prolific is Abhishek Rai, who has racked up more than 3,000 five-star reviews offering leads on motivated sellers, vacant properties or absentee owners since joining the platform in April 2020.
Rai, who’s based in India and uses the handle @virtualguy2020, typically charges $10 for 100 leads, $50 for 650 and $100 for 1,500.
“Real estate agents have demanding schedules, and outsourcing lead generation tasks allows them to focus on other aspects of their business, such as client meetings, property showings, and negotiations,” he said.
Rai has clients across the U.S., including many in Southern California. He added that generating leads is a specialized skill and not every agent has the expertise to find them on their own.
For his leads, he combs through public records, online databases and real estate sources such as property records, tax records and foreclosure listings.
To be clear, the vast majority of agents in Southern California still conduct business the old-fashioned way. But the ones trying new things are often doing so in order to make a living.
In 2022, Realtors with 16 or more years of experience made a median gross income of $80,700, according to the NAR. But those with two years or less experience made just $9,600.
According to a report from business networking platform Alignable, 31% of real estate firms struggled to pay rent for their office in January.
AI’s subtle invasion of the real estate industry doesn’t necessarily come as a surprise because the technology has pervaded nearly every profession over the last few years. But for an industry that has long relied on human connection — handshakes, open houses, fresh flowers and other personal touches — AI’s cold, sterile seep into housing has become unnerving for some.
“When I do need a real estate agent, I need one that I can connect with,” Thompson said. “I don’t want anything to do with their AI assistant.”
Source: latimes.com
Many Americans expect mortgage rates to decline over the coming months but they remain pessimistic about how affordable buying a home will be in 2024, a survey by Fannie Mae shows.
The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index jumped by 3.5 points last month to nearly 71, its highest level since March 2022. This increased confidence was built on people feeling more secure in their jobs and those who believe the cost of a home is likely to decline this year, the index showed.
But the survey also revealed a fault line that is currently shaping the housing market— despite rates falling from their two-decade highs in the fall of last year, affordability still remains a concern for potential buyers. The Fannie Mae survey showed that a mere 17 percent of respondents said that now is a good time to purchase a property.
An all-time survey-high 36 percent of respondents indicated that they expect mortgage rates to go down in the next 12 months, while 28 percent expected them to go up, and 35 percent expected rates to remain the same.
“For the first time in our National Housing Survey’s history, a greater share of consumers believe mortgage rates will decrease over the next year, rather than increase,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, said in a note. “Consumers also expressed greater confidence in their job situations this month, another sign that housing sentiment may continue to improve in 2024.”
But those consumers were also worried about whether they will be able to buy even as mortgage rates drop.
“While home affordability may improve if actual mortgage rates continue moving downward, other parts of the affordability equation have yet to ease or improve for consumers,” Duncan said. “A large majority still think home prices will either increase or stay the same; the ‘good time to buy’ component continues to hover near its historical low.”
Mortgage rates hit 8 percent in October 2023, making securing a home loan the most expensive it has been since the turn of the century. Since then, rates have declined to the mid-6 percent range, a development that has sparked some activity among buyers.
This jump in interest has yet to translate into a selling spree, partly due to elevated prices.
On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) pointed out that the median single-family used home price jumped 3.5 percent from a year ago to $391,700. Meanwhile, the payments that American households would pay on their mortgages if they put down 20 percent of a loan was 10 percent higher than a year ago at about $2,200.
“Many homebuyers have been shocked at high housing costs, with a typical monthly mortgage payment rising from $1,000 three years ago to more than $2,000 last year,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement shared with Newsweek.
The rise in prices is partly due to a lack of enough supply of homes available for sale. This was a particular challenge in the used homes market, where sellers who own mortgages in the 2 to 3 percent range are reluctant to give them up with current costs of home loans high.
“While a lower mortgage rate path supports our forecast for a gradual increase in housing demand and sales activity in 2024, until we see a meaningful increase in housing supply, we expect affordability will remain a significant barrier to home ownership for many households,” Duncan said.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com