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As we head into peak home-buying season, signs of life have begun to spring up in the housing market.
Even so, still-high mortgage rates and home prices amid historically low housing stock continue to put homeownership out of reach for many.
Moreover, the National Association of Realtors agreed to a monumental $418 million settlement on March 15 following a verdict favoring home sellers in a class action lawsuit. Still subject to court approval, the settlement requires changes to broker commissions that will upend the buying and selling model that has been in place for years.
Elevated mortgage rates, out-of-reach home prices and record-low housing stock are the perennial weeds that experts say hopeful home buyers can expect to contend with this spring—and beyond.
“The housing market is likely to continue to face the dual affordability constraints of high home prices and elevated interest rates in 2024,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, in an emailed statement. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast.”
Despite ongoing affordability hurdles, Fannie Mae forecasts an increase in home sales transactions compared to last year. Experts also anticipate a slower rise in home prices this year compared to recent years, but price fluctuations will continue to vary regionally and depend strongly on local market supply.
U.S. home prices declined in January for the third consecutive month due to high borrowing costs, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. But prices year-over-year jumped 6%—the fastest annual rate since 2022.
Chief economist at First American Financial Corporation Mark Fleming predicts a “flat stretch” ahead.
“If the 2020-2021 housing market was too hot, then the 2023 market was probably too cold, but 2024 won’t yet be just right,” Fleming said in his 2024 forecast.
For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.
“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”
And, of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off—which experts say is imminent despite rates edging back up toward 7%. For the week ending April 11, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.88%, according to Freddie Mac.
However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.
“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.
He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.
Nonetheless, Kuba Jewgieniew, CEO of Realty ONE Group, a real estate brokerage company, is optimistic about a recovery this year.
“[W]e’re definitely looking forward to a better housing market in 2024 as interest rates start to settle around 6% or even lower,” says Jewgieniew.
Following years of litigation, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers.
The plaintiffs claimed that the leading national trade association for real estate brokers and agents “conspired to require home sellers to pay the broker representing the buyer of their homes in violation of federal antitrust law.”
Though the landmark settlement is subject to court approval, most consider it a done deal.
The settlement requires NAR to enact new rules, including prohibiting offers of broker compensation on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings. The rule is set to take effect in mid-July, once the settlement receives judge approval.
Moreover, sellers will no longer be required to pay buyer broker commissions and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with their buyer clients.
NAR denies any wrongdoing and maintains that its current policies benefit buyers and sellers. The organization believes it’s not liable for seller claims related to broker commissions, stating that it has never set commissions and that commissions have always been negotiable.
Per the settlement’s terms, the costs associated with buying and selling a home are set to change dramatically.
“The primary things that will change are the decoupling of the seller commission and the buyer commission in the MLS,” says Rita Gibbs, a Realtor at Realty One Group Integrity in Tucson. “It’s gonna cause some chaos.”
While sellers will no longer be able to offer broker compensation in the MLS, there’s no rule prohibiting off-MLS negotiations. Because of this, Gibbs suspects buyers and sellers will continue offering broker compensation off the MLS.
The Department of Justice confirmed it will permit listing brokers to display compensation details on their websites. However, buyer agents will need to undergo the tedious task of visiting countless broker websites to find who’s offering what.
Michael Gorkowski, a Virginia-based real estate agent with Compass, is also trying to figure out how to manage the potential ruling.
“We often work with buyers for many months and sometimes years before they find exactly what they’re looking for,” Gorkowski says. “So in a case where a seller isn’t offering a co-broker commission, we will have to negotiate that the buyer pays an agreed-upon commission prior to starting their search.”
“In the short term, it is absolutely going to injure buyers, especially FHA and VA buyers,” Gibbs says. “With rare exception, these buyers are not in a position to pay for their own agent.”
Gibbs says that if sellers don’t offer compensation, many buyers who can’t otherwise afford to pay a broker will choose to go unrepresented.
Gorkowski notes that veterans taking out VA loans face a unique challenge under the new rules. “[P]er the VA requirements, buyers cannot pay so it must be negotiated with the seller for now.”
As a result, NAR is calling on the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to revise its policies prohibiting VA buyers from paying broker commissions. Even so, there’s skepticism that the federal government will be able to implement changes in time for the July deadline.
Gibbs and Gorkowski are among the many agents especially concerned about first-time home buyers. After July, first-time and VA buyers will be required to sign a buyer-broker agreement stating that they will compensate their broker—but Gibbs says many won’t have the means to do so.
In this situation, agents would likely only show buyers homes where sellers are offering compensation.
“This is a very troubling situation,” Gorkowski says.
With many homeowners “locked in” at ultra-low interest rates or unwilling to sell due to high home prices, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while—even as some homeowners may finally be forced to sell due to major life events such as divorce, job changes or a growing family.
“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.
Housing stock remains near historic lows—especially entry-level supply—which has propped up demand and sustained ultra-high home prices. Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.
Yet, some hopeful housing stock signs have begun to sprout:
The most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks builder sentiment, saw a fourth consecutive monthly rise, surpassing a crucial threshold with an increase from 48 to 51 in March. A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.
At the same time, new single-family building permits ticked up 1% in February—the 13th consecutive monthly increase—according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Though some housing market data indicates signs of growth are in store this spring home-buying season, persistently high mortgage rates may hinder activity from fully flourishing.
Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.
Existing-home sales came to life in February, shooting up 9.5% from the month before, according to the latest data from the NAR. Sales dipped 3.3% from a year ago.
Experts attribute the monthly jump to a bump in inventory.
“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report.
Existing inventory rose 5.9%—logging 1.07 million unsold homes at the end of February. However, there are still only 2.9 months of inventory at the current sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market falling between four and six months.
Meanwhile, existing home prices continue to soar to unprecedented heights, reaching $384,500, which marks the eighth consecutive month of yearly price increases and a February median home price record.
Sales of newly constructed single-family houses ticked down by a nominal 0.3% compared to January, but outpaced February 2023 sales by 5.9%, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.
Amid a high percentage of homeowners still locked in to low mortgage rates, home builders have been picking up the slack.
“New construction continues to be an outsized share of the housing inventory,” said Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, in an emailed statement.
Sturtevant notes that declining new home prices are coming amid a recent trend of builders introducing smaller and more affordable homes to the market.
The median price for a new home in February was $400,500, down 7.6% from a year ago.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index rose 1.6% in February from the month prior even as mortgage rates approached 7% by the end of the month. Pending transactions declined 7% year-over-year.
A pending home sale marks the point in the home sales transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator of future closed sales.
The Midwest and South saw monthly transaction gains while the Northeast and West saw declines due to affordability challenges in those higher-cost regions.
“While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress from the lows of late last year,” said Yun, in the report.
Though down from its 2023 high of 7.79%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2024 remains well over 6% amid rising home values. As a result, home buyers continue to face affordability challenges.
According to data from its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report, property data provider Attom found that median-priced single-family homes remain less affordable than the historical average in over 95% of U.S. counties.
For one, the data uncovered that expenses are eating up more than 32% of the average national wage. Common lending guidelines require monthly mortgage payments, property taxes and homeowners insurance to comprise 28% or less of your gross income.
At the same time, home prices and homeownership expenses continue to outpace wage growth.
Consequently, the latest expense-to-wage ratio is hovering at one of the highest points over the past decade, according to the Attom report, despite some slight affordability improvements over the last two quarters.
“Affording a home remains a financial stretch, or a pipe dream, for so many households,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom.
Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.
Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:
Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:
Despite some areas of the country experiencing monthly price declines, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.
“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.
Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.
“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.
“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.
Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.
Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.
“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.
In February, total foreclosure filings were down 1% from the previous month but up 8% from a year ago, according to Attom.
“These trends could signify evolving financial landscapes for homeowners, prompting adjustments in market strategies and lending practices,” said Barber, in a report.
Lenders began foreclosure on 22,575 properties in February, up 4% from the previous month and 11% from a year ago. Meanwhile, real estate-owned properties, or REOs, which are homes unsold at foreclosure auctions and taken over by lenders, spiked year-over-year in three states: South Carolina (up 51%), Missouri (up 50%) and Pennsylvania (up 46%).
Despite foreclosure activity trending up nationally and certain areas of the country seeing notable annual increases in REOs, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.
“Foreclosure activity is still only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels … and isn’t likely to be back to 2019 numbers until sometime in mid-to-late 2024,” says Sharga.
The biggest reasons for this, Sharga explains, are the strength of the economy—we’re still seeing low unemployment and steady wage growth—along with excellent loan quality.
Massive home price growth in homeowner equity over the past few years has also helped reduce foreclosures.
Sharga says that some 80% of today’s homeowners have more than 20% equity in their property. So, while there may be more foreclosure starts in 2024—due in part to Covid-era mortgage relief programs phasing out—foreclosure auctions and lender repossessions should remain below 2019 levels.
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.
Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.
“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”
Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.
“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”
Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.
Declining mortgage rates will likely incentivize would-be buyers anxious to own a home to jump into the market. Expect this increased demand amid today’s tight housing supply to put upward pressure on home prices.
Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.
If you’re in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it won’t matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. However, if you are looking to buy real estate as a short-term investment, it will come with more risk if you buy at the height before a recession.
Source: forbes.com
Data experts on the mortgage team at NerdWallet dig into NerdWallet’s survey research, as well as public datasets, to identify trends and provide insights on the ever-changing U.S. housing market. On this page, you’ll find some of NerdWallet’s most-read research and commentaries on home buyers and sellers, mortgage interest rates and homeownership.
For NerdWallet statistics and data on additional topics, including credit cards, banking and student loans, head to our studies and data analysis hub.
Have questions or want to speak with a NerdWallet expert? Reach out to [email protected].
Daily mortgage interest rates
Mortgage interest rates this week
Mortgage interest rates this month
NerdWallet home and mortgages expert Holden Lewis writes a monthly column covering the near-term forecast for mortgage rates.
Every winter, NerdWallet collaborates with The Harris Poll to survey U.S. adults 18 years and older. The results provide a nationally representative snapshot of how Americans perceive the housing market.
2024 Home Buyer Report: Pessimism reigns as home buyers struggle and the goal of homeownership loses some of its luster.
2023 Home Buyer Report: Higher mortgage interest rates and apprehensions about the economy have Americans unsure about their ability to purchase homes.
2021 Home Buyer Report: Pent-up demand from would-be home buyers clashes with a limited supply of homes for sale.
2020 Home Buyer Report: Buying a home is a top priority, especially for younger generations, but some feel locked out of homeownership.
2019 Home Buyer Report: Recent buyers have had to get competitive to close their deals, and many feel stretched by the costs of homeownership.
2018 Home Buyer Report: Homeownership is a widely shared goal, but concerns about costs keep some buyers sidelined.
Each quarter, NerdWallet data analyst Elizabeth Renter analyzes information from sources including the U.S. Census, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the National Association of Realtors to better understand the challenges facing first-time home buyers.
Q4 2023: A slight bump in inventory isn’t enough to ease affordability challenges.
Q3 2023: Higher mortgage rates outpace slight price declines seen in some metros.
Q2 2023: Seasonality appears to be returning to home prices.
Q1 2023: Banks’ tighter lending standards add to the difficult climate for first-time buyers.
Q4 2022: Higher mortgage interest rates deter buyers, easing inventory woes.
Q3 2022: Price increases slow, but rising mortgage rates eat into potential savings.
Q2 2022: Falling wages and price growth intensify affordability struggles.
Q1 2022: Two years’ worth of data highlights housing market challenges.
Q4 2021: High prices and low inventory are a double whammy in some markets.
Q3 2021: Moderate improvements may be blips, not trends.
Q2 2021: Notable year-over-year decline in affordability.
Q4 2020: Typical winter shifts in the housing market may help home buyers.
Q3 2020: Competition is hot for the limited supply of homes on the market.
Q2 2020: Real estate booms as the country comes out of quarantine.
Q1 2020: Home prices rise, even as the effects of the pandemic are unclear.
Elevated mortgage rates took a bite out of new home sales in February, as they declined slightly from the previous month. Builders continue to respond to affordability concerns; half of the homes sold in February cost under $400,000, compared with 45% in January.
March 25, 2024
Latest housing market columns from Holden Lewis
Home buyers
Home improvement
2022 study: After a boom in renovations and DIY projects, homeowners may dial back home improvement plans (Nov. 2022).
2020 study: Homeowners prioritize DIY and paying for projects with cash (Oct. 2020).
Home sellers
2023 data analysis: Why homeowners may want to sell despite higher interest rates (March 2023).
2021 study: What to expect listing a home in a seller’s market (April 2021).
2019 study: What sellers should know before listing (May 2019) .
Housing market
Mortgage denials
2022 data analysis: Higher home prices and debt contribute to home loan denials (Nov. 2023).
2021 data analysis: Competition and lack of collateral drive mortgage denials (Oct. 2022).
2020 data analysis: Tighter lending standards make some home loans harder to obtain (Nov. 2021).
2019 data analysis: Debt-to-income ratio most-cited reason for mortgage denials (Oct. 2020).
Source: nerdwallet.com
Mortgage loans refinancing declined for the week ending March 22, contributing to a drop in home loans applications even as interest rates decelerated, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on Wednesday.
The Refinance Index fell 2 percent from the prior week and was 9 percent lower compared to a year ago. Overall, mortgage applications dropped by 0.7 percent at a time when the 30-year fixed rate mortgage ticked down to 6.93 percent from the prior week’s 6.97 percent.
“Mortgage application activity was muted last week despite slightly lower mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate edged lower to 6.93 percent, but that was not enough to stimulate borrower demand,” Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement shared with Newsweek.
Read more: What is Mortgage Refinancing and How Does It Work?
The drop in refinancing applications comes as the housing market has been in flux nationwide.
Borrowing costs for home loans jumped to their highest since the turn of the century last year, peaking at about 8 percent in the fall. That jump in mortgage rates was sparked by the Federal Reserve hiking rates to their highest in more than two decades as policymakers moved to tighten financial conditions to battle soaring inflation. Expectations that the central bank will start lowering those rates has helped bring mortgage rates down.
Recent data suggests that buyers are still looking for lower borrowing costs. New home sales declined in February, amid high mortgage rates that economists say depressed activity as the housing market enters its busy Spring season.
Kan said on Wednesday that still elevated mortgage rates are still keeping buyers on the sidelines.
“Purchase applications were essentially unchanged, as homebuyers continue to hold out for lower mortgage rates and for more listings to hit the market,” he noted.
Kan suggest limited housing inventory is also proving to be a hindrance to the market.
“Lower rates should help to free up additional inventory as the lock-in effect is reduced, but we expect that will only take place gradually, as we forecast that rates will move toward 6-percent by the end of the year,” he said. “Similarly, with rates remaining elevated, there is very little incentive right now for rate/term refinances.”
Read more: Best Mortgage Lenders
The lock-in effect was particularly acute in the existing homes market. Most homeowners have low mortgage rates which has discouraged them from putting their properties in the market if that means they may have to acquire a new home with borrowing costs closer to 7 percent. About 90 percent of homeowners own mortgages that are under 6 percent, according to real estate platform Redfin.
There have been some signs recently that the existing homes market is recovering after struggling mightily last year.
In February, sales of previously owned homes rose by nearly 10 percent.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
“Mortgage rates rose in February, and the elevated rates took a bite out of new home sales,” said Holden Lewis, home expert at NerdWallet. “They declined slightly from the previous month, although sales were 6% stronger than 12 months earlier. Builders are competing with home resales by constructing new homes for buyers on a limited … [Read more…]
This has kept single-family permits from falling and kept construction workers employed to build and finish the backlog of single-family homes in the pipeline.
We obviously can’t say that the apartment marketplace and permits are back to recession lows.
So, for now, homebuilders can still keep construction workers employed in the single-family housing market as they slowly work through the backlog of homes.
From Census: New Home Sales: Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
As we can see below, new home sales aren’t booming. We are still at the level seen in the 1990s, so no record-breaking demand is happening here like we saw in the run-up to 2005, which took new home sales up to 1.4 million. However, slow and steady wins the race.
For sale inventory and months’ supply: The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 463,000. This represents a supply of 8.4 months at the current sales rate.
Here’s my model for understanding the builders:
This housing cycle is unique due to the historic backlog of homes the builders still have, so they will be mindful to ensure they can sell those homes once they’re completed units. If the original contract buyer can’t buy now, they must ensure they can sell that new home to a new buyer. As you can imagine with 8.4 months of supply, don’t expect the builders to be building single-family homes in a big fashion. They will go nice and slow because they’re not the March of Dimes; they’re here to make money.
One of the things I like to do is break down the monthly supply data into subcategories. People sometimes believe that the monthly supply of new homes means live, completed homes ready to buy, but that isn’t the case. In this report:
As shown below, we only have 85,000 completed homes ready for sale.
This report had some minor positive revisions to the previous month, so to keep things simple, as long as mortgage rates don’t head toward 8%, new home sales have the backdrop to grow sales if rates are in the 6% range because they can buy down rates to a sub-6% level to move homes. It gets much more expensive for them to do this at 8%.
Source: housingwire.com
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What a difference a month makes: Economists at Fannie Mae no longer expect mortgage rates to fall below 6 percent this year or next and believe that “dual affordability constraints” of high home prices and mortgage rates will also keep 2024 home sales from hitting a previously forecast 5 million mark.
Last month, Fannie Mae’s eight-member forecasting team was projecting that rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would drop to an average of 5.9 percent by the final three months of the year and that sales of new and existing homes would total 5.0 million.
In their latest monthly housing forecast Tuesday, Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group projected mortgage rates will average 6.4 percent during Q4. While 4.91 million homes are expected to change hands this year, deals will be driven primarily by households that can no longer put off moves due to life events.
“The housing market is likely to continue to face the dual affordability constraints of high home prices and elevated interest rates in 2024,” Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan said in a statement. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast, as markets continue to evolve their expectations of future monetary policy.”
Even if mortgage rates stay elevated, sales of new and existing homes are expected to be stronger than last year, although the projected rebound isn’t quite as strong as Fannie Mae had forecast last month.
“We believe an increasing number of transactions will be driven by households who can no longer put off their moves simply due to interest rate lock-in effects because they need to move for life event reasons,” Fannie Mae economists said in commentary accompanying their latest forecast.
Sales of existing homes, which make up the bulk of most real estate agents’ businesses, are now projected to grow by only 3 percent in 2024, to 4.21 million. That’s about 47,000 fewer existing home sales than forecast in February.
Sales of new homes are expected to grow by close to 5 percent this year, to 699,000, which is down 35,000 from last month’s forecast for 734,00 new home sales in 2024.
“While existing sales rose 3.1 percent in January to an annualized pace of 4.0 million, these increases reflected mortgage rates in November and December,” Fannie Mae economists noted. “Pending sales, which lead closings on average by a month or two, fell in January by 4.9 percent, pointing to a likely pullback in February.”
Last month, Fannie Mae forecasters were predicting that rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would fall to 5.9 percent in Q4 2024 and 5.7 percent in Q4 2025. The latest forecast is that rates will make a more gradual descent to 6.0 percent by Q4 2025.
“Strong headline jobs numbers and hotter-than-expected inflation data … led financial markets to price in a less aggressive rate-cutting path by the Federal Reserve,” Fannie Mae economists said in predicting that mortgage rates have less room to come down than previously thought.
While economists with the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted in February that mortgage rates would drop to 5.5 percent by Q4 2025, their March forecast hadn’t been issued Tuesday.
This year’s rally in mortgage rates kicked off with a surprisingly strong jobs report on Feb. 2, which put to rest speculation that the Federal Reserve might begin lowering the short-term federal funds rate in March.
Purchase mortgage applications fell for five consecutive weeks before mortgage rates began to ease again in early March. But more recent inflation data has been pushing mortgage rates higher again since March 11.
The CME FedWatch Tool, which tracks futures market investors’ expectations of the Fed’s next moves, on Tuesday put the odds that the Fed will approve one or more rate cuts by June 12 at just 59.5 percent, down from 76.2 percent on Feb. 16.
But it’s not just when the Fed starts cutting short-term rates, but how deeply it might cut over the next two or three years that’s of importance to investors who fund most mortgages.
“In our view, whether the Fed begins cutting interest rates in June or later in the year is likely to have only a small impact on the macroeconomy and mortgage rates,” Fannie Mae economists said. “In contrast, we believe the market’s expectations of the cumulative change in the fed funds rate over the next two to three years will likely have a more meaningful impact on mortgage rates.”
Unlike the short-term federal funds rate, the Fed doesn’t have direct control over mortgage rates, which are determined largely by investor demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). But having purchased trillions of dollars in MBS and Treasurys to keep interest rates low during the pandemic, the Fed does have influence in MBS markets that determine mortgage rates.
“Quantitative tightening” — the Federal Reserve’s ongoing program to trim $35 billion in mortgages from its balance sheet each month — could keep mortgage rates from falling dramatically this year.
When Fed policymakers meet Wednesday, they’re expected to keep their target for the short-term federal funds rate at 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent. But Fannie Mae economists say bond market investors are expecting some discussion of the quantitative tightening policy, which Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has said is falling short of expectations.
In a March 1 speech, Waller said he’d like to see the Fed reduce its $2.4 trillion in mortgage holdings to zero. But because few homeowners have an incentive to refinance their existing loans, the Fed has been falling short of its target of reducing its MBS holdings by $35 billion a month.
Rather than actively selling MBS, the Fed has been letting those investments roll off its balance sheet passively, by not replacing assets that mature. But that strategy has only been trimming the Fed’s MBS balance sheet by about $15 billion a month.
To hit the $35 billion a month target, the Fed would have to start selling MBS. Even the threat of such a move might push mortgage rates higher, prompting real estate industry groups to plead with the Fed in October to go on record that it would not sell mortgages the central bank bought during the pandemic.
With home prices expected to stay elevated, purchase mortgage originations are expected to post 12 percent growth this year, to $1.367 trillion, a downgrade of $90 billion from last month’s forecast, followed by 13.5 percent growth in 2025, to $1.551 trillion.
“We have downgraded our outlook for purchase originations due to downgrades to the home sales forecast (which in turn stems from a higher mortgage rate outlook), as well as incoming data indicating a continued higher cash share of purchase transactions occurring,” Fannie Mae economists said.
Refinancings are projected to grow 60 percent this year from last year’s anemic levels, to $397 billion, or $62 billion less than forecast in February. Next year Fannie Mae is forecasting another 58 percent increase in refinancing volume, to $626 billion, as lower rates give more homeowners an incentive to refinance.
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Source: inman.com
Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application data.
As rates were hitting year-to-date highs, the fear was that the Fed would go hawkish in their March meeting, which could push mortgage rates toward 8% and tank 2024 demand. Thankfully, that didn’t happen, and — as I said on the HousingWire Daily podcast last week —we dodged a bullet.
Let’s look at the tracker data to see how mortgage rates are impacting the housing data as we settle into spring.
For those of you who have me for the last 12 months, you know how important the 4.34% level on the 10-year yield is for my economic work. A break of this level could send mortgage rates toward 7.5%-8% for spring 2024. Not only did this not happen last week, but bond yields fell during the week. As we can see below, we have held the line once again, but we aren’t out of the dark forest yet.
As we can see in the chart below, the 10-year yield and mortgage rates have made a massive move higher since 2022. However, whenever the 10-year yield falls with duration, as we saw toward the end of 2022 and into 2023, it sends mortgage rates lower, and we can grow sales from these record-low levels.
Purchase application data really moves on mortgage rates — something we saw in late 2022 and into 2023. As rates ticked up recently, purchase apps were down 1% week to week and down 14% year over year.
Since November 2023, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints after making holiday adjustments. Year to date, we have had four positive prints versus six negative prints. What have 2022, 2023, and 2024 shown us? When mortgage rates fall, demand picks up. Imagine a housing market with just 6% mortgage rates or lower — it would be growing like what we see in the new home sales market.
Weekly housing inventory data
The best housing story for 2024 so far is that inventory is growing yearly. The growth isn’t just in active inventory but also new listings. We’re not seeing seller stress in the inventory data but just a typical increase in inventory when rates are higher, which looks perfectly normal.
Here is a look at the inventory last week:
New listing data is growing! This data line is slightly lower than I hoped for for 2024, but we are still growing. Right now we are a tad below the levels we saw in 2022 before mortgage rates spiked over 6%. Here’s the weekly new listing data for last week over several previous years:
For some historical context, in 2011, new listings this week were at 362,339 .
Price-cut percentage
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity and this data line is very seasonal. The price-cut percentage can grow when mortgage rates move higher and demand gets hit. When rates fall, they go lower than an average year.
Keep it simple here, folks: inventory is growing year over year; if demand stays weaker with higher rates, the price-cut percentage data should increase faster, and if demand picks up with lower rates, it shouldn’t. As we can see below, the data line is very seasonal, like most housing data.
Next week, we have new home sales, pending home sales and the national home price index data. I will be on CNBC Monday morning to discuss the new home sales report. Of course, the Fed’s main inflation indicator, the PCE, will come out on Friday, which is a trading holiday, which will be key for rates short-term until we have the next Fed meeting. So, we have a lot of data to work with this week.
Source: housingwire.com
From Census: Building Permits: Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,518,000. This is 1.9 percent above the revised January rate of 1,489,000 and 2.4 percent above the February 2023 rate of 1,482,000.
When people say housing leads us in and out of a recession, it is a valid premise and that is why people carefully track housing permits. However, this housing cycle has been unique. Unfortunately, many people who have tracked this housing cycle are still stuck on 2008, believing that what happened during COVID-19 was rampant demand speculation that would lead to a massive supply of homes once home sales crashed. This would mean the builders couldn’t sell more new homes or have housing permits rise.
Housing permits, starts and new home sales were falling for a while, and in 2022, the data looked recessionary. However, new home sales were never near the 2005 peak, and the builders found a workable bottom in sales by paying down mortgage rates to boost demand. The first level of job loss recessionary data has been averted for now. Below is the chart of the building permits.
On the other hand, the apartment boom and bust has already happened. Permits are already back to the levels of the COVID-19 recession and have legs to move lower. Traditionally, when this data line gets this negative, a recession isn’t far off. But, as you can see in the chart below, there’s a big gap between the housing permit data for single-family and five units. Looking at this chart, the recession would only happen after single-family and 5-unit permits fall together, not when we have a gap like we see today.
From Census: Housing completions: Privately‐owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,729,000.
As we can see in the chart below, we had a solid month of housing completions. This was driven by 5-unit completions, which have been in the works for a while now. Also, this month’s report show a weather impact as progress in building was held up due to bad weather. However, the good news is that more supply of rental units will mean the fight against rent inflation will be positive as more supply is the best way to deal with inflation. In time, that is also good news for mortgage rates.
Housing Starts: Privately‐owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,521,000. This is 10.7 percent (±14.2 percent)* above the revised January estimate of 1,374,000 and is 5.9 percent (±10.0 percent)* above the February 2023 rate of 1,436,000.
Housing starts data beat to the upside, but the real story is that the marketplace has diverged into two different directions. The apartment boom is over and permits are heading below the COVID-19 recession, but as long as the builders can keep rates low enough to sell more new homes, single-family permits and starts can slowly move forward.
If we lose the single-family marketplace, expect the chart below to look like it always does before a recession — meaning residential construction workers lose their jobs. For now, the apartment construction workers are at the most risk once they finish the backlog of apartments under construction.
Overall, the housing starts beat to the upside. Still, the report’s internals show a marketplace with early recessionary data lines, which traditionally mean mortgage rates should go lower soon. If housing leads us into a recession in the near future, that means mortgage rates have stayed too high for too long and restrictive policy by the Fed created a recession as we have seen in previous economic cycles.
The builders have been paying down rates to keep construction workers employed, but if rates go higher, it will get more and more challenging to do this because not all builders have the capacity to buy down rates. Last year, we saw what 8% mortgage rates did to new home sales; they dropped before rates fell. So, this is something to keep track of, especially with a critical Federal Reserve meeting this week.
Source: housingwire.com
Lately, mortgage rates have surged higher, climbing from as low as 2% to over 8% in some cases.
Despite this, home builders have been enjoying healthy sales of newly-built homes.
And somewhat incredibly, they haven’t had to lower their prices in many markets either.
The question is how can they continue to charge full price if financing a home has gotten so much more expensive?
Well, there are probably several reasons why, which I will outline below.
The first thing working in the home builders’ favor is a lack of competition. Typically, they have to contend with existing home sellers.
A healthy housing market is dominated by existing home sales, not new home sales.
If things weren’t so out of whack, we’d be seeing a lot of existing homeowners listing their properties.
Instead, sales of newly-built homes have taken off thanks to a dearth of existing supply.
In short, many of those who already own homes aren’t selling, either because they can’t afford to move. Or because they don’t want to lose their low mortgage rate in the process.
This is known as the mortgage rate lock-in effect, which some dispute, but logically makes a lot of sense.
At the same time, home building slowed after the early 2000s housing crisis, leading to a supply shortfall many years later.
Simply put, there aren’t enough homes on the market, so prices haven’t fallen, despite much higher mortgage rates.
There’s also this notion that home prices and mortgage rates have an inverse relationship.
In that if one goes up, the other must surely come down. Problem is this isn’t necessarily true.
When mortgage rates rose from record lows to over 8% in less than two years, many expected home prices to plummet.
But instead, both increased. This is due to that lack of supply, and also a sign of strength in the economy.
Sure, home buying became more expensive for those who need a mortgage. But prices didn’t just drop because rates increased.
History shows that mortgage rates and home prices don’t have a strong relationship one way or the other.
Things like supply, the wider economy, and inflation are a lot more telling.
For the record, home prices and mortgage rates can fall together too!
So we know demand is keeping prices mostly afloat. But even still, affordability has really taken a hit thanks to those high rates.
You’d think the home builders would offer price cuts to offset the increased cost of financing a home purchase.
Well, they could. But one issue with that is it could make it harder for homes to appraise at value.
One big piece of the mortgage approval process is the collateral (the property) coming in at value, often designated as the sales price.
If the appraisal comes in low, it could require the borrower to come in with a larger down payment to make the mortgage math work.
Lower prices would also ostensibly lead to price cuts on subsequent homes in the community.
After all, if you lower the price of one home, it would then be used as a comparable sale for the next sale.
This could have the unintended consequence of pushing down home prices throughout the builder’s development.
For example, if a home is listed for $350,000, but a price cut puts it at $300,000, the other homes in the neighborhood might be dragged down with it.
That brings us to an alternative.
Instead of lowering prices, home builders seem more interested in offering incentives like temporary rate buydowns.
Not only does this allow them to avoid a price cut, it also creates a more affordable payment for the home buyer.
Let’s look at an example to illustrate.
Home price: $350,000 (no price cut)
Down payment: 20%
Loan amount: $280,000
Buydown offer: 3/2/1 starting at 3.99%
Year one payment: $1,335.15
Year two payment: $1,501.39
Year three payment: $1,676.94
Year 4-30 payment: $1,860.97
Now it’s possible that home builders could lower the price of a property to entice the buyer, but it might not provide much payment relief.
Conversely, they could hold firm on price and offer a rate buydown instead and actually reduce payments significantly.
With a 3/2/1 buydown in place, a builder could offer a buyer an interest rate of 3.99% in year one, 4.99% in year two, 5.99% in year three, and 6.99% for the remainder of the loan term.
This would result in a monthly principal and interest payment of $1,335.15 in year one, $1,501.39 in year two, $1,676.94 in year three, and finally $1,860.97 for the remaining years.
This assumes a 20% down payment, which allows the home buyer to avoid private mortgage insurance and snag a lower mortgage rate.
If they just gave the borrower a price cut of say $25,000 and no mortgage rate relief, the payment would be a lot higher.
At 20% down, the loan amount would be $260,000 and the monthly payment $1,728.04 at 6.99%.
After three years, the buyer with the higher sales price would have a slightly steeper monthly payment. But only by about $130.
And at some point during those preceding 36 months, the buyer with the buydown might have the opportunity to refinance the mortgage to a lower rate.
It’s not a guarantee, but it’s a possibility. In the meantime, they’d have lower monthly payments, which could make the home purchase more palatable.
Price Cut Payment |
Post-Buydown Payment |
|
Purchase Price | $325,000 | $350,000 |
Loan Amount | $260,000 | $280,000 |
Interest Rate | 6.99% | 6.99% |
Monthly Payment | $1,728.04 | $1,860.97 |
Difference | $132.93 |
At the end of the day, the easiest way to lower monthly payments is via a reduced interest rate.
A slightly lower sales price simply doesn’t result in the savings most home buyers are looking for.
Using our example from above, the $25,000 price cut only lowers the buyer’s payment by about $130.
Sure, it’s something, but it might not be enough to move the needle on a big purchase.
You could take the lower price and bank on mortgage rates moving lower. But you’d still be stuck with a high payment in the meantime.
And apparently home buyers focus more on monthly payment than they do the sales price.
This explains why home builders aren’t lowering prices, but instead are offering mortgage rate incentives instead.
Aside from temporary buydowns, they’re also offering permanent mortgage rate buydowns and alternative products like adjustable-rate mortgages.
But again, these are all squarely aimed at the monthly payment, not the sales price.
So if you’re shopping for a new home today, don’t be surprised if the builder is hesitant to offer a price cut.
If they do offer an open-ended incentive that can be used toward the sales price or interest rate (or closing costs), take the time to consider the best use of the funds.
Those who think rates will be lower in the near future could go with the lower sales price and hope to refinance. Just be sure you can absorb the higher payment in the meantime.
Read more: Should I use the home builder’s lender?
Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com
“Builder sentiment has improved as interest rates have dropped and buyers have begun to return in increasing numbers,” said Kelly Mangold, principal at RCLCO Real Estate Consulting. “As fears of a significant recession lessen, buyers who have been sidelined for the past year or more feel more confident about making a purchase.” Read more: Is … [Read more…]