Daily average mortgage rates jumped to their highest level since last November after last week’s disappointing inflation report
SEATTLE, April 18, 2024–(BUSINESS WIRE)–(NASDAQ: RDFN) —The median U.S. home-sale price increased 5% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending April 14, bringing it to $380,250—just $3,095 shy of June 2022’s all-time high. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
The average daily mortgage rate this week surpassed 7.4%, the highest level since last November, after a hotter-than-expected inflation report and the Fed’s confirmation that interest-rate cuts will be delayed. The combination of high mortgage rates and prices have brought homebuyers’ median monthly housing payment to a record $2,775, up 11% year over year.
There are signals that buyers are out there touring homes despite rising rates. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 5% week over week, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—is near its highest level in seven months. Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead, said some house hunters are hoping to buy now because they’re concerned rates could rise more, and others have grown accustomed to elevated rates and pushed down their home-price budget accordingly.
“Home sales are slower than usual, but there are still people buying and selling because if not now, when?” said Connie Durnal, a Redfin Premier agent in Dallas. “I’ve had a few prospective buyers touring homes for the last several years, since mortgage rates started going up, and they wish they would have bought last year because prices and rates are even higher now. My advice to them: If you can afford to and you find a house you love, buy now. There’s no guarantee that rates will come down soon.”
For more of Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate
7.41% (April 17)
Up from 7% one month earlier; highest level since November 2023
Increased 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending April 12)
Down 10%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)
Up 8% from a month earlier (as of week ending April 14)
Down 11%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity
Up 33% from the start of the year (as of April 14)
At this time last year, it was up 23% from the start of 2023
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”
Unchanged from a month earlier (as of April 14)
Down 17%
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending April 14, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending April 14, 2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$380,250
4.7%
Median asking price
$413,225
6.4%
Biggest increase since Oct. 2022; all-time high
Median monthly mortgage payment
$2,775 at a 6.88% mortgage rate
10.6%
All-time high
Pending sales
86,086
-2.3%
New listings
93,332
10.8%
Active listings
832,748
9.6%
Months of supply
3.3 months
+0.4 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
Share of homes off market in two weeks
42.6%
Down from 44%
Median days on market
35
-1 day
Share of homes sold above list price
29.2%
Essentially unchanged
Share of homes with a price drop
5.9%
+1.6 pts.
Average sale-to-list price ratio
99.2%
+0.2 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending April 14, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases
Notes
Median sale price
Anaheim, CA (24.8%)
Providence, RI (14.6%)
Nassau County, NY (14.3%)
West Palm Beach, FL (13.5%)
New Brunswick, NJ (13.1%)
San Antonio, TX (-1%)
Declined in just 1 metro
Pending sales
San Jose, CA (25.6%)
San Francisco (11.2%)
Oakland, CA (7.1%)
Columbus, OH (6.7%)
Seattle (6.4%)
Nassau County, NY (-14.9%)
Atlanta (-13.6%)
Houston (-11.6%)
Riverside, CA (-10.8%)
Fort Lauderdale, FL (-10%)
Increased in 14 metros
New listings
San Jose, CA (46.6%)
Sacramento, CA (27.6%)
Phoenix (27.4%)
Jacksonville, FL (27.2%)
Dallas (22.9%)
Newark, NJ (-12.4%)
Providence, RI (-6.3%)
Milwaukee (-4.6%)
Chicago (-4.5%)
Detroit (-3.1%)
Declined in 9 metros
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-prices-mortgage-rates-increase
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country’s #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we’ve saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin’s press release distribution list, email [email protected]. To view Redfin’s press center, click here.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240418348073/en/
Editorial Note: We earn a commission from partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors’ opinions or evaluations.
As we head into peak home-buying season, signs of life have begun to spring up in the housing market.
Even so, still-high mortgage rates and home prices amid historically low housing stock continue to put homeownership out of reach for many.
Moreover, the National Association of Realtors agreed to a monumental $418 million settlement on March 15 following a verdict favoring home sellers in a class action lawsuit. Still subject to court approval, the settlement requires changes to broker commissions that will upend the buying and selling model that has been in place for years.
Housing Market Forecast for 2024
Elevated mortgage rates, out-of-reach home prices and record-low housing stock are the perennial weeds that experts say hopeful home buyers can expect to contend with this spring—and beyond.
“The housing market is likely to continue to face the dual affordability constraints of high home prices and elevated interest rates in 2024,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, in an emailed statement. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast.”
Despite ongoing affordability hurdles, Fannie Mae forecasts an increase in home sales transactions compared to last year. Experts also anticipate a slower rise in home prices this year compared to recent years, but price fluctuations will continue to vary regionally and depend strongly on local market supply.
U.S. home prices declined in January for the third consecutive month due to high borrowing costs, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. But prices year-over-year jumped 6%—the fastest annual rate since 2022.
Chief economist at First American Financial Corporation Mark Fleming predicts a “flat stretch” ahead.
“If the 2020-2021 housing market was too hot, then the 2023 market was probably too cold, but 2024 won’t yet be just right,” Fleming said in his 2024 forecast.
Will the Housing Market Finally Recover in 2024?
For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.
“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”
And, of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off—which experts say is imminent despite rates edging back up toward 7%. For the week ending April 11, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.88%, according to Freddie Mac.
However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.
“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.
He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.
Nonetheless, Kuba Jewgieniew, CEO of Realty ONE Group, a real estate brokerage company, is optimistic about a recovery this year.
“[W]e’re definitely looking forward to a better housing market in 2024 as interest rates start to settle around 6% or even lower,” says Jewgieniew.
NAR Settlement Rocks the Residential Real Estate Industry
Following years of litigation, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers.
The plaintiffs claimed that the leading national trade association for real estate brokers and agents “conspired to require home sellers to pay the broker representing the buyer of their homes in violation of federal antitrust law.”
Though the landmark settlement is subject to court approval, most consider it a done deal.
The settlement requires NAR to enact new rules, including prohibiting offers of broker compensation on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings. The rule is set to take effect in mid-July, once the settlement receives judge approval.
Moreover, sellers will no longer be required to pay buyer broker commissions and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with their buyer clients.
NAR denies any wrongdoing and maintains that its current policies benefit buyers and sellers. The organization believes it’s not liable for seller claims related to broker commissions, stating that it has never set commissions and that commissions have always been negotiable.
How Will the New Rules Impact the Buying and Selling Process?
Per the settlement’s terms, the costs associated with buying and selling a home are set to change dramatically.
“The primary things that will change are the decoupling of the seller commission and the buyer commission in the MLS,” says Rita Gibbs, a Realtor at Realty One Group Integrity in Tucson. “It’s gonna cause some chaos.”
While sellers will no longer be able to offer broker compensation in the MLS, there’s no rule prohibiting off-MLS negotiations. Because of this, Gibbs suspects buyers and sellers will continue offering broker compensation off the MLS.
The Department of Justice confirmed it will permit listing brokers to display compensation details on their websites. However, buyer agents will need to undergo the tedious task of visiting countless broker websites to find who’s offering what.
Michael Gorkowski, a Virginia-based real estate agent with Compass, is also trying to figure out how to manage the potential ruling.
“We often work with buyers for many months and sometimes years before they find exactly what they’re looking for,” Gorkowski says. “So in a case where a seller isn’t offering a co-broker commission, we will have to negotiate that the buyer pays an agreed-upon commission prior to starting their search.”
The Changes Will Impact These Home Buyers Most
“In the short term, it is absolutely going to injure buyers, especially FHA and VA buyers,” Gibbs says. “With rare exception, these buyers are not in a position to pay for their own agent.”
Gibbs says that if sellers don’t offer compensation, many buyers who can’t otherwise afford to pay a broker will choose to go unrepresented.
Gorkowski notes that veterans taking out VA loans face a unique challenge under the new rules. “[P]er the VA requirements, buyers cannot pay so it must be negotiated with the seller for now.”
As a result, NAR is calling on the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to revise its policies prohibiting VA buyers from paying broker commissions. Even so, there’s skepticism that the federal government will be able to implement changes in time for the July deadline.
Gibbs and Gorkowski are among the many agents especially concerned about first-time home buyers. After July, first-time and VA buyers will be required to sign a buyer-broker agreement stating that they will compensate their broker—but Gibbs says many won’t have the means to do so.
In this situation, agents would likely only show buyers homes where sellers are offering compensation.
“This is a very troubling situation,” Gorkowski says.
Housing Inventory Forecast for 2024
With many homeowners “locked in” at ultra-low interest rates or unwilling to sell due to high home prices, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while—even as some homeowners may finally be forced to sell due to major life events such as divorce, job changes or a growing family.
“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.
Housing stock remains near historic lows—especially entry-level supply—which has propped up demand and sustained ultra-high home prices. Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.
Yet, some hopeful housing stock signs have begun to sprout:
Existing inventory is showing signs of loosening as impatient buyers and sellers have begun to accept the reality of mortgage rates oscillating between 6% and 7%.
Home-builder outlook also continues to get sunnier, trending back up amid declining mortgage rates and better building conditions.
The most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks builder sentiment, saw a fourth consecutive monthly rise, surpassing a crucial threshold with an increase from 48 to 51 in March. A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.
At the same time, new single-family building permits ticked up 1% in February—the 13th consecutive monthly increase—according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales
Though some housing market data indicates signs of growth are in store this spring home-buying season, persistently high mortgage rates may hinder activity from fully flourishing.
Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.
Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales came to life in February, shooting up 9.5% from the month before, according to the latest data from the NAR. Sales dipped 3.3% from a year ago.
Experts attribute the monthly jump to a bump in inventory.
“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report.
Existing inventory rose 5.9%—logging 1.07 million unsold homes at the end of February. However, there are still only 2.9 months of inventory at the current sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market falling between four and six months.
Meanwhile, existing home prices continue to soar to unprecedented heights, reaching $384,500, which marks the eighth consecutive month of yearly price increases and a February median home price record.
New Home Sales
Sales of newly constructed single-family houses ticked down by a nominal 0.3% compared to January, but outpaced February 2023 sales by 5.9%, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.
Amid a high percentage of homeowners still locked in to low mortgage rates, home builders have been picking up the slack.
“New construction continues to be an outsized share of the housing inventory,” said Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, in an emailed statement.
Sturtevant notes that declining new home prices are coming amid a recent trend of builders introducing smaller and more affordable homes to the market.
The median price for a new home in February was $400,500, down 7.6% from a year ago.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Pending Home Sales
NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index rose 1.6% in February from the month prior even as mortgage rates approached 7% by the end of the month. Pending transactions declined 7% year-over-year.
A pending home sale marks the point in the home sales transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator of future closed sales.
The Midwest and South saw monthly transaction gains while the Northeast and West saw declines due to affordability challenges in those higher-cost regions.
“While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress from the lows of late last year,” said Yun, in the report.
Ongoing Affordability Challenges Could Throw Cold Water on Spring Home-Buying Hopes
Though down from its 2023 high of 7.79%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2024 remains well over 6% amid rising home values. As a result, home buyers continue to face affordability challenges.
According to data from its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report, property data provider Attom found that median-priced single-family homes remain less affordable than the historical average in over 95% of U.S. counties.
For one, the data uncovered that expenses are eating up more than 32% of the average national wage. Common lending guidelines require monthly mortgage payments, property taxes and homeowners insurance to comprise 28% or less of your gross income.
At the same time, home prices and homeownership expenses continue to outpace wage growth.
Consequently, the latest expense-to-wage ratio is hovering at one of the highest points over the past decade, according to the Attom report, despite some slight affordability improvements over the last two quarters.
“Affording a home remains a financial stretch, or a pipe dream, for so many households,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom.
Pro Tips for Buyers and Sellers
Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.
Pro Tips for Buying in Today’s Real Estate Market
Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:
Know your budget. Instead of focusing on price, figure out how much you can afford as a monthly payment. Your monthly housing payment is influenced by the price of the home, your down payment, mortgage rate, loan term, home insurance and property taxes.
Be flexible about home size and location. Perhaps your budget is sufficient for a small home in your perfect neighborhood, or a larger, newer home further out. Understanding your priorities and having some flexibility can help you move quickly when a suitable home enters the market.
Keep an eye on the market where you hope to buy. Determine the area’s available inventory and price levels. Also, pay attention to how quickly homes sell. Not only will you be tuned in when something great hits the market, you can feel more confident moving forward with purchasing a well-priced home. A real estate agent can help with this.
Don’t be discouraged. Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions you’ll ever make. Approaching the market confidently, armed with good information and grounded expectations will take you far. Don’t let the hustle of the market convince you to buy something that’s not in your budget, or not right for your lifestyle.
Pro Tips for Selling in Today’s Real Estate Market
Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:
Research comparable home prices in your area. Sellers need to have the most up-to-date pricing intel on comparable homes selling in their market. Know the market competition and price the home competitively. In addition, understand that in some price points it’s a buyer’s market—you’ll need to be prepared to make some concessions.
Make sure your home is in top-notch shape. Homes need to be in great condition to compete and create a strong “online curb appeal.” Well-maintained homes and attractive front yards are major features that buyers look for.
Work with a local real estate agent. A real estate agent or team with a strong local marketing presence and access to major real estate portals can offer significant value and help you land a great deal.
Don’t put off issues that require attention. Prepare the home by making any repairs or improvements. Removing any objections that buyers may see helps focus the buyer on the positive attributes of the home.
Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?
Despite some areas of the country experiencing monthly price declines, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.
“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.
Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.
“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.
“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.
Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.
Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.
“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.
Will Foreclosures Increase in 2024?
In February, total foreclosure filings were down 1% from the previous month but up 8% from a year ago, according to Attom.
“These trends could signify evolving financial landscapes for homeowners, prompting adjustments in market strategies and lending practices,” said Barber, in a report.
Lenders began foreclosure on 22,575 properties in February, up 4% from the previous month and 11% from a year ago. Meanwhile, real estate-owned properties, or REOs, which are homes unsold at foreclosure auctions and taken over by lenders, spiked year-over-year in three states: South Carolina (up 51%), Missouri (up 50%) and Pennsylvania (up 46%).
Despite foreclosure activity trending up nationally and certain areas of the country seeing notable annual increases in REOs, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.
“Foreclosure activity is still only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels … and isn’t likely to be back to 2019 numbers until sometime in mid-to-late 2024,” says Sharga.
The biggest reasons for this, Sharga explains, are the strength of the economy—we’re still seeing low unemployment and steady wage growth—along with excellent loan quality.
Massive home price growth in homeowner equity over the past few years has also helped reduce foreclosures.
Sharga says that some 80% of today’s homeowners have more than 20% equity in their property. So, while there may be more foreclosure starts in 2024—due in part to Covid-era mortgage relief programs phasing out—foreclosure auctions and lender repossessions should remain below 2019 levels.
When Will Be the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2024?
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.
Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.
“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”
Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.
“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”
Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Will declining mortgage rates cause home prices to rise?
Declining mortgage rates will likely incentivize would-be buyers anxious to own a home to jump into the market. Expect this increased demand amid today’s tight housing supply to put upward pressure on home prices.
What will happen if the housing market crashes?
Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.
Is it smart to buy real estate before a recession?
If you’re in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it won’t matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. However, if you are looking to buy real estate as a short-term investment, it will come with more risk if you buy at the height before a recession.
Older Americans who own their home are financially incentivized to stay put, which is likely to worsen the ongoing inventory shortage, two Redfin studies found.
In one recent survey, Redfin found that over three-quarters (78%) of older American homeowners (ages 60 and up) are planning to stay in their current home as they age. Meanwhile, about one in five baby boomers (19%) are considering moving into a community with older people or have already done so. Smaller shares of baby boomers are considering moving in with an adult child, moving to an assisted-living facility or moving in with friends.
The inertia of baby boomers is making it harder for young Americans to find a family home, according to a Redfin analysis. In fact, empty-nest baby boomers own 28% of three-bedroom homes in the U.S., while millennials with kids own just 14%. Furthermore, nearly 80% of boomers own the home they live in, compared to 55% of millennials.
Additionally, 54% of boomers carry no mortgage, and for those who do have a mortgage, nearly all of them have a much lower interest rate than they would if they sold and bought a new home today.
According to the April 2024 Mortgage Monitor report from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), homeowners who took out mortgages with near-record-low rates in 2020 and 2021 face much higher monthly payments even if they move to an equivalently priced home. A “lateral move” of this type would cost 60% more per month, ICE reported.
There are now 517,000 single family homes on the market, up by 26% from a year ago, according to data from Altos Research. Inventory has been expanding steadily for 20 weeks in a row but still remains at historically low levels. Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research, forecasts that there will be 700,000 homes on the market by August or September of this year, the most homes available since 2019.
“Older Americans are aging in place because it makes financial sense, but also because it’s human nature to avoid thinking about challenging scenarios such as needing help as you get older,” Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather, said in a statement. “In reality, many homeowners and renters will need to move somewhere that better meets their needs as they age, like a senior-living community or a one-story home in an accessible neighborhood.
“But the government isn’t prioritizing building housing for seniors, which is further encouraging older Americans to stay put, exacerbating the inventory shortage. Politicians should focus on expanding housing stock that meets the needs of older Americans, which could help with housing affordability and availability for all.”
In certain states like California or Texas, tax systems make it advantageous for people to stay in their homes as they age. Medical and technological advancements have also made it increasingly easy for people to stay in their home as they get older.
More than half (51%) of baby boomers who don’t plan to move say that they like their home and see no reason to move, according to Redfin’s survey. The real estate brokerage conducted this survey in February 2024, collecting 838 responses from baby boomers (ages 60 to 78) and 62 responses from members of the Silent Generation (ages 79 and older).
Dual licensing is one of the opportunities being opened to the mortgage industry by the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) pending nationwide settlement of commission lawsuits, according to Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
“There will be market reactions to this settlement, and it will create openings for other business models where we want the buyer represented, but the seller may not want to pay 3% for a buyer’s agent,” Broeksmit said on Tuesday morning during the MBA’s National Advocacy Conference in Washington, D.C.
“One of those models could be that you, as lenders, license your loan officers as real estate agents and offer the buying agent service for less than a 3% fixed fee point. And some of you will say I want nothing to do with that. Others of you will say that is a great retention opportunity for my loan officers and the market will figure all this out,” Broeksmit added.
On Friday, NAR announced a settlement that includes a $418 million payment for damages, along with a ban on rules that allow a seller’s agent to set compensation for a buyer’s agent.
The settlement also includes eliminating fields that display broker compensation on Multiple Listing Services (MLSs) and ending the blanket requirement that agents subscribe to an MLS to offer or accept compensation. In addition, buyers’ agents must have written agreements.
If approved by a court, the changes will go into effect in mid-July.
On Friday, HousingWire reported that Absolute Home Mortgage is testing out a dual-licensing structure. Matthew VanFossen, CEO of the New Jersey-based lender, said in an interview that loan officers may start getting real estate licenses, and/or buyer agents may become licensed LOs.
It would “bridge the gap in lower commission” by these professionals “starting to take both sides of the deal,” VanFossen said. But if real estate agents transition to becoming lenders, the dual-license trend would also have an “unintended consequence” for marketing servicing agreements (MSAs) between mortgage companies and real estate brokerage firms.
Tax credit, ‘junk fees,’ Marcia Fudge
Broeksmit was critical of President Joe Biden’s housing plan announced during the 2024 State of the Union address on March 7. He said the proposals would “stimulate demand on the single-family side.”
“Any lender in the audience knows that they have a huge list of people who are qualified and able to buy a house; there’s just no inventory. So, we really need to focus on the supply,” Broeksmit said.
During the State of the Union address, Biden called for a $10,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers and people selling their starter homes.
Broeksmit said that people selling their homes would buy another, so the tax credit would not be enough to improve supply. In addition, people sell houses based on their own circumstances, not because of government tax incentives.
“So, you’re giving money to people who would have sold anyway,” Broeksmit said. “I think a smarter thing to do would be to raise the exemption for the capital gain when you sell your house.”
Broeksmit also reacted to the decision by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to closely scrutinize what it described as “junk fees” imposed on borrowers when closing a mortgage.
A recent CFPB blog post stated that families closing a mortgage “often get an unwelcome surprise: closing costs that all too often are full of junk fees.”
According to Broeksmit, the CFPB can only review fees by reopening the TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) rules, which the industry spent $1 billion to implement. “There’s no such thing as a surprise at closing,” Broeksmit said.
Regarding the resignation of U.S. Department Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Marcia Fudge, Broeksmit said it’s not unusual for a cabinet secretary to leave before the end of a four-year term. In this case, “it’s a grueling job,” he added.
Selling your house is often one of the largest financial transactions you’ll make in your life. It can be complex and emotionally challenging, especially if it’s your first time dealing with a home sale or if the house is full of family memories.
Despite these challenges, millions of people successfully sell their homes each year. The process is well-trodden, but each sale has its unique circumstances and can come with many curveballs.
Whether you’re downsizing, upgrading, relocating, or just ready for a change, selling your house is a big step. The task might seem daunting, but remember, you’re not alone. Many resources can guide you through this process, providing advice and support along the way.
This guide aims to simplify the process and provide you with step-by-step instructions to help sell your house.
From setting your objectives to finally handing over the keys, we’ll walk you through each stage. We will address common challenges and offer expert insights to ensure you’re well-prepared for the journey ahead. Our goal is to help you sell your house at the best possible price within your desired timeline, while minimizing stress and maximizing satisfaction.
Understand Your Selling Objectives
The first step in any successful real estate transaction is understanding your motivations and objectives for selling. Be clear about your goals and timeline to create a selling strategy that will get you the price you want for your home within the timeframe desired.
Why are you selling?
Your motivations for selling might be tied to lifestyle changes, financial circumstances, or relocation for work. Perhaps you’ve outgrown your current house, or maybe it’s become too big after the kids have moved out. You might need to relocate for a new job or prefer a change in scenery as you approach retirement. By identifying your reasons for selling, you’ll have a clearer idea of what you want to achieve with the sale.
What’s your timeline?
Your timeline can significantly influence your selling strategy. If you’re in a rush due to reasons like a job relocation or closing on another home, you may have to price your property more competitively to attract a faster sale. However, if you have the luxury of time, you can afford to be patient and wait for an offer that matches your ideal price.
Evaluate Your Financial Position
Understanding your financial situation is essential in the home-selling process. A realistic view of your finances will help you make informed decisions, particularly in setting a reasonable asking price.
Understand Your Home Equity
Equity refers to the portion of your property that you truly “own” – it’s the difference between the current market value of your home and the remaining balance on your mortgage. Knowing your equity can give you an idea of your potential profits from the sale.
Consider Your Outstanding Mortgage
The amount left on your mortgage is another critical factor. If your outstanding balance is more than your home’s sale price, you may need to consider a short sale, which requires your lender’s approval and can affect your credit score.
Estimate Closing Costs
Closing costs are the fees and expenses you pay to finalize your home’s sale, excluding the commission for the real estate agent. They may include title insurance, appraisal fees, and attorney fees, among other costs. These are usually about 2-5% of the purchase price. Understanding these costs is crucial as they directly impact your net proceeds from the sale.
Taking the time to clarify your selling objectives and understanding your financial position will pave the way for a more streamlined and successful home-selling experience. These factors are not just critical for setting a realistic asking price but also for aligning your home sale with your larger financial or life goals.
Prepare Your House for Sale
Once you’ve identified your selling objectives, the next step is to prepare your house for the market. A well-prepared home can catch the attention of more prospective buyers and even command a higher sale price.
Home Improvements and Necessary Repairs
Before you list your home, assess its overall condition. Some minor upgrades and necessary repairs can significantly enhance your home’s appeal, often leading to a faster sale or higher selling price.
Deep Cleaning and Carpet Cleaning
Begin with a deep clean to ensure your home looks its best. Pay attention to often-overlooked areas, such as baseboards, window sills, and ceiling fans. If you have carpets, consider hiring a professional carpet cleaning service to remove any stains or odors. Cleanliness can significantly influence a buyer’s first impression.
Minor Upgrades and Fixes
Next, tackle minor upgrades and repairs that could deter potential buyers. This could include painting walls with a fresh, neutral color, fixing any plumbing or electrical issues, and ensuring all appliances are in working order. Although these tasks may seem small, they can make a big difference to potential buyers.
Stage Your House
Staging your house involves preparing it for viewing by potential buyers. It can significantly impact how quickly your home sells and the price.
Hire a Professional Stager
A professional stager, although an extra cost, can be a worthwhile investment. For a few hundred dollars, they can transform your space and make it appealing to as many potential buyers as possible. They use strategies like optimal furniture placement, accentuating natural light, and choosing neutral decor to make your home attractive and inviting.
Depersonalize Your Home
Part of effective staging involves depersonalizing your home. This means removing personal items like family photos, collections, and mementos. The aim is to create a neutral space where potential buyers can easily envision themselves and their own belongings. It’s all about helping buyers picture your house as their future home.
In the competitive real estate market, first impressions count. By investing time, money and effort in staging your house for sale, you can stand out from the competition and make a great impression on prospective buyers. These preparations could translate into a quicker sale and potentially a higher price.
Set the Right Price
One of the most critical decisions in the home-selling process is determining the right asking price. Setting a competitive price can help attract more prospective buyers, shorten the time your home spends on the market, and potentially yield a higher sale price.
Understand the Importance of Pricing
Choosing the right price is not just about the amount you’d like to receive. It’s also about understanding buyer psychology and local market trends. Pricing your home correctly can result in more interest, more showings, and ultimately, more offers.
Get a Comparative Market Analysis
A key tool for setting the right price is a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA). A CMA provides information about recent home sales in your area, adjusted for differences in features and conditions, giving you a good idea of what buyers might be willing to pay for your home.
Hire a Great Real Estate Agent
A great real estate agent can provide an accurate and comprehensive CMA. They have the experience and local market knowledge to understand which homes are truly comparable to yours and how various features and upgrades impact pricing.
Consider Comparable Sales
Comparable sales, or “comps,” are recent home sales in your area that are similar to your property in size, condition, and features. Your real estate agent will look at these comps, adjust for differences, and use the information to guide you towards a fair and attractive list price.
Adjust for Features and Conditions
Every home is unique, and its features and condition will impact its value. Your real estate agent will consider these factors when setting your home’s list price. For example, if your home has a new roof or a remodeled kitchen, it might command a higher price compared to a similar home without these upgrades.
Setting the right price is both an art and a science. It requires an understanding of the local real estate market, an evaluation of comparable sales, and an assessment of your home’s unique features. By enlisting the help of a great real estate agent and leveraging their expertise, you can set a competitive price that will attract serious buyers and maximize your profits.
Market Your House
Once your house is ready for sale and priced right, the next step is to get the word out to prospective buyers. Effective marketing can attract more interest and lead to quicker, more competitive offers.
Use High-Quality Professional Photos
Professional photography plays a crucial role in marketing your house. High-quality photos can showcase your home’s best features and give potential buyers a good first impression. Homes listed with professional photos tend to receive more views online, which can lead to faster sales and often at higher prices.
Craft a Compelling Listing Description
A well-written listing description can spark interest and invite potential buyers to learn more. Highlight your home’s unique features, recent upgrades, and what makes it special. Remember, you’re not just selling a property, you’re selling a lifestyle. Allow your real estate agent to offer feedback and help you create an enticing, optimized listing that will also show up in search results when people are looking for a home like yours.
Host Open Houses and Private Showings
Open houses and private showings are opportunities for potential buyers to experience your home in person. Be flexible with your schedule and make your house available for viewing as often as you can. The more people who walk through your door, the better your chances of receiving an offer.
The Role of a Good Real Estate Agent in Marketing
Marketing a house involves a significant time commitment and a specific set of skills. This is where a good real estate agent comes into play.
Leverage the Multiple Listing Service (MLS)
A good real estate agent can list your property on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), a database of homes for sale that’s used by real estate professionals. An MLS listing can increase your home’s visibility, attracting other real estate agents and their clients.
Find a Realtor with A Proven Track Record
Choose a real estate agent with a proven track record of sales in your area. Their experience and local market knowledge can be invaluable in promoting your home effectively and attracting serious buyers.
In a crowded real estate market, standing out is key. By leveraging professional photography, crafting a compelling listing description, and utilizing the expertise of a good real estate agent, you can market your home effectively, attracting more potential buyers and increasing your chances of a successful sale.
Evaluate Offers and Negotiate
Once your marketing efforts start paying off and offers begin to come in, it’s time to shift focus to negotiation. The goal here is to achieve the best possible terms that align with your selling objectives.
How to Evaluate Offers
When you receive an offer, it’s essential to look beyond the offered price. While the highest offer might seem the most appealing, it’s not always the best choice.
Consider the Buyer’s Lender
Understanding where the buyer’s financing comes from is important. Offers from buyers who are pre-approved by a well-known lender may carry less risk than those from buyers who are not pre-approved or who are using a less established lender.
Assess the Down Payment
The size of the buyer’s down payment can indicate their financial stability. A larger down payment may suggest that the buyer has solid finances and is serious about purchasing your home.
Understand the Buyer’s Timeline
A buyer’s timeline can be just as important as their offered price. A qualified buyer who can close quickly might be more attractive than a higher offer that’s contingent on selling a current house.
How to Manage Multiple Offers
Receiving multiple offers can be exciting, but it can also be overwhelming. Your real estate agent can help you with this process.
Consult with Your Real Estate Agent
Your real estate agent’s experience can be invaluable in this situation. They can guide you through your options, help you compare offers side by side, and give advice based on their understanding of the current real estate market and the specifics of each offer.
Make the Best Decision Based on Your Needs
When reviewing multiple offers, it’s important to consider your own needs and priorities. For example, if you need to sell quickly, you might prioritize a buyer who can close sooner, even if their offer is not the highest.
Negotiating and accepting offers can be a complex part of the selling process. It’s not just about accepting the highest offer, but understanding the nuances of each proposal and making the best decision for your circumstances. With the right real estate agent by your side, you can handle this process confidently and successfully.
Close the Sale
After you’ve accepted an offer, the next step is to finalize the transaction. The closing process involves several stages, including a home inspection, title search, potential repair negotiations, and final paperwork signing. Here’s what to expect:
The Due Diligence Period
The due diligence period allows the buyer to further investigate the property after their offer has been accepted. During this time, the buyer’s agent will arrange for a home inspection.
Home Inspection and Report
A professional home inspector will thoroughly examine your property and generate an inspection report. This document details the condition of the house and outlines any potential issues, from minor maintenance concerns to significant structural problems.
Negotiating Repairs
If the inspection report reveals necessary repairs, there may be further negotiations. Buyers might ask you to handle the repairs, reduce the sale price, or offer a credit at closing to cover the repair costs.
The Title Search and Insurance
As part of the home buying process, the buyer’s lender will work with a title company to conduct a title search. This ensures the house is free from liens or claims and that you have a clear title to transfer to the new owners.
Understanding Title Insurance
Buyers might also negotiate for you to pay for title insurance as part of the closing costs. Title insurance protects the buyer and their lender from future property ownership claims, unexpected liens, or undisclosed property heirs.
Sign the Final Paperwork
The last step in the home sale process is the closing meeting. Here, you’ll sign the final paperwork, which includes key documents such as:
The Bill of Sale
This document transfers the ownership of personal property (like appliances or furniture) included in the home sale.
The Deed
This legal document transfers ownership of the property from you, the seller, to the buyer.
Documents Prepared by a Real Estate Attorney or Real Estate Brokerage
The closing process involves many legal documents. These might be prepared by a real estate attorney or real estate brokerage to ensure everything is in order.
Closing the sale of your house can be a complex process. However, understanding each step can help you proceed with confidence and reach a successful conclusion to your home sale journey.
Post Sale Considerations
Even after the final paperwork has been signed, and the new owners have the keys, there are a few additional factors to consider. The sale of your house doesn’t just end at the closing table. Let’s delve into these post-sale considerations.
Understand the Tax Implications
Selling your house can have significant tax implications. The application of taxes largely depends on the profit you make from the sale and how long you’ve lived in the house.
Capital Gains Tax Exemption
If the house was your primary residence for at least two of the last five years before selling, you might qualify for a capital gains tax exemption. This can significantly reduce your tax liability.
Consult with a Tax Professional
However, tax laws can be complex, and every situation is unique. Consult with a tax professional or a certified public accountant to fully understand the potential tax impacts. They can provide guidance tailored to your specific circumstances.
The Move to Your New Home
Moving to your new home involves logistical and financial considerations. Plan ahead for moving costs, including professional movers, moving supplies, and potential temporary housing.
Keep Records of Your Home Sale Expenses
It’s wise to keep a comprehensive record of all home sale-related expenses. This includes real estate agent commissions, home improvements made before the sale, and any fees or costs associated with closing. These records can be crucial for your future tax returns or financial planning.
Some of your moving costs may be tax-deductible if you or a member of your household is in the military, and you are moving due to a military order. Previously, moving costs were tax-deductible for many people who were relocating due to a job. After 2025, these deductions may return.
Conclusion
Selling your house is a significant event, and educating consumers about the process can reduce stress and result in a better outcome. By preparing your home, pricing it right, and working with a competent real estate agent, you can complete the transaction smoothly and efficiently.
The selling process might seem overwhelming, but with thorough preparation and the right team on your side, it can be an exciting time. Remember, every house can sell, it just requires the right strategy, a competitive price, and a bit of patience.
Frequently Asked Questions
What should I do if my house isn’t selling?
If your house isn’t attracting buyers, various factors could be at play. The asking price may be too high, marketing efforts might be insufficient, or the house’s condition could be deterring potential buyers. Consult with your real estate agent to pinpoint potential problems and devise solutions. You may need to reduce the price, enhance your marketing strategy, or invest in necessary home improvements.
Can I sell my house myself instead of using a real estate agent?
Yes, selling your house yourself is an option. This is known as “For Sale By Owner” (FSBO). However, selling a house involves complex tasks like pricing, marketing, negotiating, and handling legal paperwork. Real estate agents possess the expertise and experience to deal with these challenges. If you opt for FSBO, be prepared for a significant time commitment and be ready to handle these tasks yourself.
How long does it usually take to sell a house?
The timeline for selling a house can vary greatly and depends on numerous factors, such as local market conditions, the home’s condition and price, and even the time of year. On average, it can take anywhere from a few days to a few months. Your real estate agent can give you a better estimate based on local trends and your specific situation.
What is a seller’s market, and how can it impact my home sale?
A seller’s market occurs when the demand for homes exceeds the current supply. This often results in homes selling more quickly and at higher prices. If you’re selling your house in a seller’s market, it can be an advantage as you may get multiple offers and a higher sale price.
Should I make repairs before selling my house?
Whether to make repairs before selling your house often depends on the type and extent of the repairs and the overall condition of your house. Small repairs and improvements, like painting or fixing leaky faucets, can make a good impression on buyers. If your home has more more substantial issues, discuss the repairs with your real estate agent to weigh the cost against the potential return on investment.
Southern California’s real estate market is as cold as the snow currently adorning the peaks of its mountains. Interest rates are up. Inventory is down. And deals are few and far between.
In slow markets, the agents at the top — those with experience, connections and plenty of clients — typically maintain a modest but steady stream of business. It’s the agents at the bottom — those just getting into the industry who’ve only managed to close a handful of sales — who starve.
As those agents have grown more desperate for leads, they’re trying alternative ways of finding them. Some are outsourcing the work overseas, and others are turning to AI or automation in a last-ditch attempt to find a seller.
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During the record-breaking pandemic market, there were so many transactions that most determined real estate agents were able to make a living. More than 43,000 single-family homes traded hands in L.A. County in 2021, and more than 42,000 were sold in 2022, according to the Multiple Listing Service.
During that time, tens of thousands joined the National Assn. of Realtors, or NAR, with membership swelling to a record 1.6 million in 2022, up 200,000 since 2020. Real estate wasn’t just a solid job; it was a way to leap into a higher tax bracket.
But then the market started to freeze in 2023 as mortgage rates shot up. Only 11,539 single-family homes sold that year, and sales are at a similar pace so far this year.
Some agents are simply calling it quits. In California alone, NAR lost 9,723 members from December 2023 to January 2024 — a 4.75% decline . But even after the drop, California still holds the second-most active Realtors in the nation at 194,964, and they’re all fighting for an extremely small pool of sellers.
At the peak of the pandemic market, Tyler Andrews, 29, tried his hand at real estate in the Inland Empire, thinking he would use his outgoing personality to sell homes as L.A. residents flocked to the area during the pandemic. He got his license and helped a few friends with their house hunts, but ultimately didn’t earn any commission and stopped in 2023.
He’s one of many agents who rushed into real estate hoping for a taste of California’s latest gold rush.
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From the outside, listing a house in a hot market seems like the easiest of get-rich-quick schemes. Homes sell in days, and a 3% agent’s commission on a $1-million sale comes out to $30,000. If you represent both sides of the deal, it turns into $60,000.
But the real estate industry isn’t an easy one to break into. You typically get paid only if you close a sale, and in any market, most homeowners still prefer to go with an agent with experience.
In a hot market, sellers find an agent. In a cold market, agents have to find a seller. The situation is coming to a boil in many areas, such as Leimert Park, where residents have been barraged by agents asking whether they’re interested in putting their homes up for sale.
Cold calling is time consuming — and stressful, considering the ire it draws from those on the receiving end. So some agents are handing that thankless task to machines.
A handful of companies such as Slybroadcast and Salesmsg offer “ringless voicemail,” a robocall-adjacent tool enabling agents to send pre-recorded messages straight to your voicemail box without your phone ever ringing. The messages are often meant to trick you into thinking you missed a call, saying things like, “Sorry I missed you! Give me a call back whenever you get a chance.”
In 2022, the Federal Communications Commission declared the trend a form of robocalling and said it’s illegal if the caller doesn’t have the recipient’s prior consent. But that hasn’t stopped agents from sending out such voicemails to potential clients.
“I don’t have time to cold call all day,” said one real estate agent who asked to remain anonymous due to the potential taboo of using the technology. “I have to find clients somehow, and in a market like this, you have to get creative.”
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The thinking is this: An agent could spend eight hours a day calling every home in a neighborhood to ask whether they want to sell their home. Or they could send out 500 ringless voicemails simultaneously, and those who bother to call back have a better chance of needing the services of a real estate agent.
Andrews said he had heard of other agents trying such technology as the market got colder in 2023, but he never bothered doing it himself because it didn’t seem authentic. It also would’ve been an extra expense — one he didn’t have a budget for.
Mary Thompson has owned her home in Beverly Crest for more than a decade. Over the last year, she’s received multiple ringless voicemails asking whether she wants to list or buy a house.
“I was fooled by the first one. I called back and ended up on the phone with an agent for 15 minutes asking about my plans as a homeowner,” she said. “I don’t bother calling back anymore.”
U.S. consumers received more than 55 billion robocalls in 2023, 5 billion more than the previous year, according to the YouMail Robocall Index. Roughly 15 billion were telemarketing calls, and 8 billion were scams. California consistently ranks as the state with the second-most robocalls, behind only Texas.
As a response to thousands of unwanted call complaints, the FCC has established a Robocall Response Team to combat the influx of robocalls, many of which are targeted toward homeowners.
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Last year, the commission shut down a robocalling campaign from MV Realty, a real estate brokerage that was sending out robocalls with misleading claims about mortgages. A whistleblower from the company told a Seattle news outlet that employees were directed how to use software called PhoneBurner and required to make at least 450 calls per day.
Other companies such as VoiceSpin give agents access to auto-dialing software, which, like it sounds, automatically dials numbers from a list. VoiceSpin claims to use AI and machine learning and enables agents to drop voicemails straight into inboxes, record calls or even use local area codes so you’re more likely to pick up.
In that case, you’d be talking to an agent, but sometimes you might find yourself unwittingly conversing with a robot.
The tech company Ylopo recently uploaded a video showcasing an AI assistant conversing with a potential home buyer planning a move to the North or South Carolina coast. The company said it’s “one of thousands of AI calls being made daily already for Ylopo clients.”
Cinc, a real estate lead generation platform, offers agents an AI-powered digital assistant that purposefully misspells words and uses emojis to make interactions with potential leads appear more human.
The NAR itself offers an AI scriptwriter powered by ChatGPT that analyzes housing trends so that agents can appear more knowledgeable about the market. Agents can even choose the tone: professional, engaging or conversational.
Earlier this month, the FCC continued its fight against robocalling by outlawing robocalls that use AI-generated voices. Since the ruling is so fresh, it’s unclear how companies utilizing the technology will be affected.
In a market as slow as this one, even finding numbers to call becomes a challenge; tech becomes useless if it’s being wasted on the wrong potential clients. So many agents are looking for leads.
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On Fiverr, an online marketplace for freelance services, a glut of listings has popped up offering agents potential leads on prospective buyers or sellers. One of the most prolific is Abhishek Rai, who has racked up more than 3,000 five-star reviews offering leads on motivated sellers, vacant properties or absentee owners since joining the platform in April 2020.
Rai, who’s based in India and uses the handle @virtualguy2020, typically charges $10 for 100 leads, $50 for 650 and $100 for 1,500.
“Real estate agents have demanding schedules, and outsourcing lead generation tasks allows them to focus on other aspects of their business, such as client meetings, property showings, and negotiations,” he said.
Rai has clients across the U.S., including many in Southern California. He added that generating leads is a specialized skill and not every agent has the expertise to find them on their own.
For his leads, he combs through public records, online databases and real estate sources such as property records, tax records and foreclosure listings.
To be clear, the vast majority of agents in Southern California still conduct business the old-fashioned way. But the ones trying new things are often doing so in order to make a living.
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In 2022, Realtors with 16 or more years of experience made a median gross income of $80,700, according to the NAR. But those with two years or less experience made just $9,600.
According to a report from business networking platform Alignable, 31% of real estate firms struggled to pay rent for their office in January.
AI’s subtle invasion of the real estate industry doesn’t necessarily come as a surprise because the technology has pervaded nearly every profession over the last few years. But for an industry that has long relied on human connection — handshakes, open houses, fresh flowers and other personal touches — AI’s cold, sterile seep into housing has become unnerving for some.
“When I do need a real estate agent, I need one that I can connect with,” Thompson said. “I don’t want anything to do with their AI assistant.”
Every year, I set goals and review my goals from the previous year. Not only do I set goals and review them but I publish them here for the world to see! This helps keep me accountable for my actions and keeps the goals fresh in my mind.
When I set goals, my main objective is not to achieve those goals but to do better. Many of my goals I do not achieve and that is okay because I know I did more and better with the goals than if I did not have them.
My previous goals and how I did
It is crazy to think of how much I have accomplished over the years and I know that setting goals helped me do much more than I ever thought possible. I own more than $22 million worth of real estate and have accomplished many of my dreams. I still have a long way to go and I will keep this going as long as I can. Every year I write this article that goes over my previous goals and my future goals. You can see those other goal articles from previous years below:
Things have changed over the years as my business has changed and new things have come into my life. I started a real estate brokerage, started investing in commercial real estate, wrote many books, started brick-and-mortar businesses, and much more.
What were my goals for 2023?
I don’t make the same goals every year because not every goal works. Some goals may seem like great ideas until I realize achieving them was too easy or not impactful on me or my business. Some goals may be too difficult to measure or track and some are just oo boring. These were my goals for 2023
Sell 20 properties
I usually make a goal to flip a certain amount of homes which means I sell a flip. I felt the need to bring a goal like that back since I need to be selling properties fairly quickly to keep my business model sustainable since I am buying new ones and spending a lot on repairs. I did not sell as many properties in 2022 as I usually do. These may be rentals or flips that I sell in 2023. I have sold rentals in the past that were not the best performing and that is my plan now as well. I have had some properties that I had big plans for but those plans fell through for various reasons. I need to sell those and move on to other properties while keeping the good ones.
I believe I only sold 10 properties in 2023! This was way below my goal and a few things made this difficult. For one, I was not able to buy as many flips as I hoped to. Rising interest rates also made it more difficult to sell some of the multifamily flips that I had planned to sell. This was not the end of the world because I am making money on those properties every month but I do have a lot of capital tied up in them that I would like to get out eventually.
Here is one of the properties I sold:
Buy 12 Flips
I think we only bought 6 flips in 2022! That was the fewest number of flips I have bought in many years but that number is also a little deceiving. Some of the flips I bought were multiunit properties that will take more work than a normal flip and some of the properties that I considered to be rental property purchases in 2022 may end up being long-term flips too. I have a few duplexes and triplexes that I was thinking of keeping or selling and I think I may sell them after fixing them up a bit.
I did not buy 12 flips in 2023 either! We only bought 7 flips which was not much better than 2022. The silver lining of this is that most of the flips we bought we in the last half of 2023 so we may see some light at the end of the tunnel for finding more deals. The lack of inventory has made it very hard to find properties that will be a worthwhile flip.
Here is one of the flips I bought:
Buy $2,000,000 worth of rental properties
I have had goals to buy a certain amount of rentals (my goal to purchase 100 rentals) and to buy a certain amount of square footage of rentals (my goal to purchase 1 million square feet of rentals) but this year I am changing it to a dollar amount. I liked both goals but they both had issues. The 100 property goal was for houses I started buying large commercial properties. The 1 million square feet of rentals goal was cool but then I bought some crazy big properties that were mostly money pits. We will see how this goal goes.
I did absolutely horrible with this goal as well! I only bought one rental property and it was a small one and a business too. The small laundromat in Kersey Colorado had an apartment in it and that is the only rental I was able to -purchase for $300k. I did have another property that I almost bought for $1.3 million but the seller backed out at the last second. Even though the market for selling rentals is not very good, there still are not many deals out there to buy either!
Refinance $2 million worth of debt
This is one goal that I have been accomplishing and makes a huge difference in my finances. By refinancing private money into bank money, I free up those private money lenders to lend me more private money and reduce my interest payments while locking in loans for the long term. I have some new lenders to try this year and I can reach out to my old ones as well on a few properties.
Well, this is another goal that I completely missed. I had some ideas to refinance properties but those ideas fell through. I knew it would be tough refinancing properties with traditional bank loans and I was hoping to use some DSCR loans. The issue I ran into with DSCR loans, is that most of them have huge prepayment penalties and it is very hard to find them on commercial or mixed-use properties.
Make $500k in revenue from Investfourmore
I have this same goal again! I have some new things to try and I may really focus on that business this year myself as well. I think there is a lot of opportunity there that I have not been fully tapping into. I would love to have people in my office who work on this business.
Are you getting used to me missing my goals because it happened again! I actually saw a decrease in revenue from investfourmore. Investfourmore is this blog, my YouTube channel, social media, real estate coaching products, and a few other things. One of the big problems with Investfourmore is that real estate is really hard right now and I think many people have lost interest or given up. While my revenue did not go up, I was able to accomplish some great things in 2023 with my brand.
Add 250k social media followers
I think this goal is diable and at the same time challenging as well. The tricky part with social media is you never know what will do well or how your account will do. Some things I think will never do well end up being awesome and some that I think are awesome do horrible! One of the sub-goals in this is to hit 100k subscribers on YouTube. I have 90k now and gained 10k in the last 2 months but without crazy evictions, YouTube stops pushing my channel as much and that crazy run is over for now. Hopefully, I can get more steady and consistent growth without craziness.
Here is a goal that I was much more successful at achieving. I hit 100k Subscribers on YouTube! I did not add 250k social media followers, but I added about 100k through YouTube, Facebook, and TikTok. Instagram has actually been losing followers because I think Instagram shadow banned me and hates me. I am not sure why.
Raise Revenues at my store from $65k to $95k per month
I bought a liquor store and mini-market in 2022 which was a goal of mine for a while. I have always wanted a brick-and-mortar store for some reason. I got my wish and it has been fun but also challenging. The store makes money even after paying rent to myself who owns the building as well. While it makes money, I think it can do so much better! One big change is we can serve more food options since I just upped our food license to a grocery with a deli which allows us to prepare some foods. We will see how that goes!
This goal I hit in the summer of 2023 and then sales dropped back down again. Sales are seasonal at the store and that was to be expected. While sales were way up, our profits were not as much as they should have been due to some staffing issues and cost problems. Making money is not all about revenue, but the bottom line, or profit as well. The store is going great.
Interesting 2023 accomplishments that weren’t goals
While I did not accomplish many of my goals I was able to do some new things I was not expecting. I have wanted a laundromat for many years and tried to build one from scratch in a small town in Northern Colorado. That did not work out because of the build and utility costs. However, I was able to buy one small laundromat and car wash in June that was already existing and then I took over another laundromat in September! The small laundromat has had many challenges but the larger one is doing pretty well. It was very exciting learning the business and trying to improve sales.
My goals for 2024
As always I am going to change up how I do my goals this year. I am always tweaking and changing things as I said previously. I am going to do something new which maybe I should have done before but for some reason, I did not. I am going to post an income goal. I have always been about investing and revenue in some of my businesses but I have never done a total income goal. Many people think I make way more money than I do.
I want to make one million dollars in taxable income in 2024
I have multiple companies that have made close to or more than one million dollars in revenue a year but taxable income is not revenue! If I am able to make one million dollars in taxable income it will mean that I brought in way more income than that because my rentals and other businesses provide a tremendous amount of writeoffs and deductions. I plan to do this with a mix of online profit, store profit, flip profit, rental property profit, and laundromat profits. I broke down that goal into smaller goals like making $100k profit at the store.
I want to sell 20 properties in 2024
I am repeating this goal again because there are about 5 rentals I would like to sell that are underperforming or have a lot of equity compared to the cash flow coming in. I also have 7 flips that should sell in 2024 and I plan to buy more that will sell in 2024 as well. It is not the end of the world if I do not sell this many but it would be nice and free up capital to buy properties with more potential or value-added possibilities if I can find them!
Here is one of the properties I sold in 2023:
I want to buy at least 12 flips in 2024
I made this goal in 2023 and did not reach it either but I think I can in 2024 or at least come close. It is fun doing flips and I love creating videos and buying more flips allows me to make more videos! I am hoping with interest rates going down (fingers crossed) more inventory will come on the market and I will be able to find more deals.
I want to buy $2 million worth of rentals
I am repeating this goal again too! Rental properties that make money have been in short supply in my market. There have been a few properties that came up for sale that were close to good enough deals for me and other investors jumped on them. I am thinking I may have to try a different market soon but I am not giving up on Colorado yet. I did make a post about the most landlord-friendly states which could help others and myself make a decision if I decide to invest in other markets.
I want to refinance $2 million worth of debt
I am still looking to refinance some of my properties that have private money loans on them. Luckily my lenders are very flexible and are willing to keep taking the interest I am paying them. If interest rates come down a bunch that would be awesome but I am not sure how far down they will go. I would also love to find a DSCR lender that doesn’t have huge prepayment penalties!
Social media and blog goals
I have many goals for social media. I want to continue to grow my YouTube channel and I would love for it to take off and focus my time on it but my other social media channels like Facebook and TikTok drive people to my YouTube channel. I also have not been writing as much on Investfourmore.com because I have been focussing on social media and I think that is one reason I have not been as successful online as I had hoped. I want to write more on my blog and make sure I am taking advantage of the brand I have built over many years!
Here are some of the social media goals:
150k YouTube Subscribers
400k Facebook followers
100k Tiktok followers
Increase traffic on Investfourmore to 50k users a month
I still want to hit that $50k a month revenue goal as well!
Conclusion
Setting goals is very important and something I do every year and keep track of all the time. To be honest, I could have kept better track of my goals in 2023. I had them written on a whiteboard and I looked at them but I did not set time away to plan as much as I should have. Another goal of mine is to focus more on my goals in 2024!
To learn more about goals and why I use them check this out.
While average mortgage rates increased by a single basis point this week, they should move lower going forward in 2024 as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve reverses course, Freddie Mac said.
The Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.62%, compared with 6.61% one week prior and 6.48% one year ago. It is the first increase in 10 weeks.
The 15-year FRM moved down 4 basis points to 5.89%, compared with 5.93% the prior week and 5.73% for the same period in 2023.
“Between late October and mid-December, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage plummeted more than a percentage point,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a press release. “However, since then rates have moved sideways as the market digests incoming economic data.”
Zillow’s rate tracker has the 30-year FRM at 6.26% on Thursday morning, up 1 basis point from the prior day but down 3 basis points from the previous week’s average.
“The latest economic data is stronger than expected, meaning fewer policy rate cuts than previously thought could be in the cards for 2024,” said Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans in a Wednesday evening statement.
Divounguy pointed to a couple of trends that might not be beneficial to rate movements. The tight labor market is likely to be a boon for housing, but it could also put less downward pressure on bond yields. The U.S. Treasury is expected to borrow $816 billion in the first quarter, likely bringing upward tension on those yields.
“While the last FOMC meeting sent rates falling at the end of 2023, market participants and the Fed will be looking for more disinflation in the new year,” Divounguy said. “Otherwise, Treasury yields could surge back up, pulling mortgage rates up with them.”
The benchmark 10-year Treasury, which had gotten back down to 3.79% on Dec. 27, was close to the 4% mark as of noon on Thursday morning.
“Given the expectation of rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, as well as receding inflationary pressures, we expect mortgage rates will continue to drift downward as the year unfolds,” Freddie Mac’s Khater said. “While lower mortgage rates are welcome news, potential homebuyers are still dealing with the dual challenges of low inventory and high home prices that continue to rise.”
But signs of change are emerging. December’s lower mortgage rates led to a 5% year-over-year increase in net new listings, real estate brokerage HouseCanary said.
“With that said, any market turns are likely to be slow,” said HouseCanary CEO Jeremy Sicklick in a press release. “The mortgage rate lock-in effect is going to keep many would-be sellers who secured pre-pandemic mortgage rates of sub 5% little incentive to move, meaning low inventory will be a continuing trend.”
Well, another year is nearly in the books, which means it’s time to look ahead at what 2024 might have in store.
As is customary, I take a look at mortgage rate predictions from a variety of economists and offer up my own take for the upcoming year.
I also look back at the predictions for the current year to see how everyone did (hint: not well!).
The big story in 2023 was out of control inflation. The story going forward might be cooling inflation.
Though there’s also the risk it resurges, at which point mortgage interest rates could rise again.
Mortgage Rates Are Expected to Go Down in 2024
First let’s talk about the general outlook. Most expect mortgage rates to go down in 2024, which was actually the call in 2023 as well.
But guess what? Everyone was wrong. Expectations that the 30-year fixed would fall back into the 5% range were way off.
Instead, interest rates on the popular loan program surpassed the 8% mark before finally letting up over the past month.
So while many economists are optimistic for the coming year, take note that they felt the same way a year ago. And got it wrong.
But things aren’t exactly the same. The Fed increased its fed funds rate 11 times, which many believe has worked to corral inflation.
And this could lead to weak economic output and rising unemployment, which could result in Fed rate cuts as early as March 2024.
This doesn’t necessarily mean mortgage rates would follow the Fed lower, but it could signal that the worst is behind us.
As such, mortgage rates may have peaked, and it’s possible they could continue to drift lower and find a comfortable medium between their old record lows and recent near-21st century highs.
MBA 2024 Mortgage Rate Predictions
First quarter 2024: 7.1% Second quarter 2024: 6.6% Third quarter 2024: 6.3% Fourth quarter 2024: 6.1%
First up is the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), which is often fairly bullish about mortgage rates improving.
They are, after all, fans of mortgages being originated, and lower rates equate to higher funding volume.
Last year, they predicted that the 30-year fixed would ease throughout 2023 and average 5.2% in the fourth quarter.
That didn’t work out as planned, with the 30-year fixed closer to 7% today. And it was actually above 8% just a month ago.
Still, they are predicting lower mortgage rates in 2024, just as they did last year. The difference this time around might the inflation story.
It has cooled a lot since then, which could lead to Fed rate cuts and an easing in the 10-year treasury yield, which correlates well with mortgage rates.
Ultimately, they may have expected inflation to improve faster than it did, which is why they got rates wrong in 2023.
Now that inflation actually is significantly lower, their predictions could come to fruition. Also note that their latest prediction is a full percentage point higher than it was a year ago.
They only expect the 30-year fixed to fall to 6.1% by the end of 2024 versus 5.2% when they made the same forecast a year ago.
Fannie Mae 2024 Mortgage Rate Predictions
First quarter 2024: 7.6% Second quarter 2024: 7.4% Third quarter 2024: 7.2% Fourth quarter 2024: 7.1%
Next up is Fannie Mae, which purchases and securitizes conforming mortgage loans.
They are a lot less bullish than the MBA, as they expect the 30-year fixed to remain in the 7% range for all of 2024.
It’s possible they’ll update their forecast in light of recent improvements in mortgage rates.
But as it stands, they don’t expect the 30-year fixed to drop below 7.10%, which is basically where it’s at now.
So we can take this to mean they expect mortgage rates to remain relatively flat at these new, higher levels for much of 2024.
I will update their numbers if they release a new forecast before the end of 2023.
Freddie Mac 2024 Mortgage Rate Predictions
First quarter 2024: n/a Second quarter 2024: n/a Third quarter 2024: n/a Fourth quarter 2024: n/a
While Freddie Mac stopped releasing a monthly outlook for mortgage rates (for reasons unknown), they still do a monthly commentary.
And from that we can glean some ideas about where they think mortgage rates will go in 2024.
Their latest outlook notes that they expect “recent volatility in Treasury yields to abate which will allow modest reductions in mortgage rates.”
How modest? Well, they said mortgage rates will probably not fall below 6% “in the short run” thanks to the higher for longer narrative.
But given the recent improvement in rates (and the 10-year bond yield), it’s possible rates could get back in the low-6s in 2024.
And if the borrower pays discount points, a rate in the 5% range is also possible, assuming those mortgage rate spreads tighten due to decreased volatility.
A year ago, they expected the 30-year fixed to fall to 6.1% by the fourth quarter of 2023. So perhaps they’re being a bit more conservative.
However, they expect home prices to rise a further 2.6% in 2024 thanks to mortgage rate lock-in effect and favorable demographics, including an elevated share of first-time home buyers.
NAR 2024 Mortgage Rate Outlook
First quarter 2024: 7.5% Second quarter 2024: 6.9% Third quarter 2024: 6.5% Fourth quarter 2024: 6.3%
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases a monthly U.S. Economic Outlook that contains their mortgage rate predictions for the year ahead.
I’m going off their October version until I can get a more updated one, so I expect their numbers to get even more optimistic given the recent improvement in mortgage rates.
There’s even a chance they’ll throw out a number in the high-5% range for the fourth quarter of 2024.
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun also expects the 30-year fixed to average between 6-7% by the spring home buying season.
He added that “we’ve already reached the peak in terms of interest rates.” So his expectation is it’ll get better from here. The question is how much better.
Zillow’s 2024 Mortgage Rate Prediction
Next we have Zillow. Sometimes they make mortgage rate predictions, sometimes they don’t.
Given how wrong everyone has been lately, they said, “Predicting how mortgage rates will move is a nearly impossible task…”
However, they do expect home prices to “hold steady in 2024,” declining by a negligible 0.2%.
They also believe mortgage rates may “hold fairly steady” too in coming months if recent inflation readings are any indication.
Together, the cost of buying a home could level off next year, or even drop if mortgage rates do too. But they aren’t throwing out specific numbers.
Interestingly, Zillow expects more mortgage rate locked-in homeowners to “end their holdout for lower rates and go ahead with those moves.”
So even if rates don’t get much better, the holdouts might say enough is enough and list their properties.
If rates do keep dropping, this argument becomes even more compelling. So much-needed supply could be freed up in the process.
Redfin 2024 Mortgage Rate Predictions
Meanwhile, Redfin believes mortgage rates will steadily decline throughout 2024, but remain above 6%.
Specifically, they expect the average 30-year mortgage rate to linger around 7% in the first quarter, then inch down as the year goes on.
By the end of 2024, the real estate brokerage thinks mortgage rates will fall to about 6.6% thanks in part to 2-3 rate cuts from the Fed.
Offsetting these cuts is the expectation that we will avoid a recession in 2024. So a lack of serious economic pain means more modest declines in rates as opposed to sizable ones.
Still, they see home buyers finally catching a break because home prices are also predicted to be flat.
This means monthly payments will fall further from their recent all-time highs, which we can all agree is a good thing.
Realtor 2024 Mortgage Rate Forecast
Meanwhile, the economists at Realtor.com are predicting a minimal decline in mortgage rates, but still an improvement.
They expect the 30-year fixed to average 6.8% in 2024 after averaging 6.9% in 2023. So just a 10-basis point decrease.
However, they do expect rates to finish off 2024 at 6.5%, which is a little more optimistic.
It’s also markedly better than the 2023 year-end expectation of 7.4%. And would essentially take us back to the end of 2022, when the 30-year fixed averaged 6.42%.
In other words, we might be able to forget 2023 ever happened. But we still won’t be able to revisit early 2022 anytime soon.
At that time, the 30-year fixed was a mindboggling 3.22%.
The Truth’s 2024 Mortgage Rate Predictions
First quarter 2024: 6.875% Second quarter 2024: 6.625% Third quarter 2024: 6.25% Fourth quarter 2024: 5.875%
Like everyone else, I was wrong about mortgage rates in 2023. I thought they’d slowly move lower throughout the year before ending the year around 5%.
Instead, we are closer to 7% today, which is a pretty big miss. That being said, what I assumed would play out last year (lower inflation), seems to be happening now.
There are also several rate cuts now expected in 2024, with the CME FedWatch Tool favoring a 4% – 4.25% range for the federal funds rate by December 2024.
The 10-year bond yield is also expected to moderate further, and could be back to the mid-3% range.
If we assume that mortgage rate spreads also tighten from their current levels near 300 bps to something more reasonable, such as 200 bps, we could see noticeably lower mortgage rates in 2024.
Taken together, a spread of 200 bps and a 3.5% 10-year yield could signal a return to mid-5% mortgage rates.
That might sound a little too good to be true, so I’ll err on the side of caution and go for an average rate as low as 5.875% to end the year.
Remember, there are still a lot of unknowns and potential curveballs ahead. We’ve got multiple geopolitical events that are still unfolding.
And potentially the most contentious U.S. presidential election in history. So as always, mortgage rates will ebb and flow, and opportunities will present themselves.
There will be good months and bad months, but I expect mortgage rates to continue trending lower as 2024 unfolds.
hikesterson/Getty Images; Illustration by Issiah Davis/Bankrate
After topping 8 percent in October, mortgage rates beat a hasty retreat in November. The average rate on 30-year loans fell under 7.5 percent in Bankrate’s most recent survey of lenders.
“Market sentiment has significantly shifted over the last month, leading to a continued decline in mortgage rates,” says Sam Khater, chief economist at mortgage company Freddie Mac.
One key reason for the reversal: Investors bid down 10-year Treasury yields, the main indicator for 30-year fixed mortgage rates.
Another factor is inflation, which was down to 3.2 percent for October. While that’s still above the Federal Reserve’s official target of 2 percent, forecasters think the Fed is done raising rates, a shift that will relieve some of the pressure on mortgages.
“If the Fed signals an end to interest rate hikes and takes on a dovish tone, there may be some downward pressure on mortgage rates,” says Odeta Kushi, economist at title insurer First American. “But don’t expect any large declines in mortgage rates until inflation is much closer to the Fed’s 2 percent target or there’s a decline in economic activity.”
Mortgage rate predictions December 2023
The downward momentum in mortgage rates will be sustained, albeit modestly, as the Federal Reserve signals they are done raising interest rates and projects slower inflation in 2024. Cautious projections from the Fed about the timing of rate hikes, along with the elevated volume of Treasury issuance, will be offsetting factors that limit the extent of decline in mortgage rates.
— Greg McBride, Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst
Many forecasts now call for rates to stick in the 7 percent range, either at 7.5 or higher.
“While mortgage rates have trended down from their peak in October, they remain above 7 percent and will likely stay there for some time,” says Ruben Gonzalez, chief economist at real estate brokerage Keller Williams.
As inflation cools and the Federal Reserve stands down, rates should drift down to 7 percent, says Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a real estate listing service in the Mid-Atlantic region.
“Part of it is the Federal Reserve is pausing on interest rate hikes,” says Sturtevant. “Of course, mortgage rates are affected by things other than what the Fed does. For example, mortgage applications are down, and lenders are competing for a shrinking pool of applicants.”
Current mortgage rate trends
After rising sharply through late October, mortgage rates have trended back down. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage was 7.4 percent as of Nov. 29, according to Bankrate’s survey. This represents a departure from 8.01 percent on Oct. 25.
Bankrate’s weekly mortgage rate averages differ slightly from the statistics reported by Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored enterprise that buys mortgages and packages them as securities. Bankrate’s rates tend to be higher because they include origination points and other costs, while Freddie Mac removes those figures and reports them separately. However, both Bankrate and Freddie Mac report similar overall trends in mortgage rates.
When will mortgage rates go down?
While the experts we talked to don’t expect rates to come down significantly this month, they do forecast an eventual easing in 2024. The Mortgage Bankers Association projects rates to fall to 6.1 percent late next year. The National Association of Realtors estimates rates will be at 6.3 percent in a year, while Fannie Mae forecasts they’ll be at 7.1 percent.
Still, mortgage rates aren’t easy to predict.
“A lot of us forecasted we’d be down to 6 percent at the end of 2023,” says Sturtevant. “Surprise, surprise, we’re not.”
One wild card has been the unusually large gap between mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields. Normally, that spread is about 1.8 percentage point, or 180 basis points. This year, the gap has been more like 280 basis points, pushing mortgage rates a full percentage point higher than the 10-year benchmark indicates.
“There is room for that gap to narrow,” says Sturtevant, “but I’m not sure we’ll get back to those old levels. In this post-pandemic economy, the old rules don’t seem to apply in the same ways. We’re sort of figuring out what the reset is. Investors have a different outlook on risk now than they did before the pandemic. We’re just in this weird transition economy.”
What to do if you’re getting a mortgage now
Mortgage rates are at generational highs, but the basic advice for getting a mortgage applies no matter the economy or market.
Improve your credit score. A lower credit score won’t prevent you from getting a loan, but it can make all the difference between getting the lowest possible rate and more costly borrowing terms. To help qualify for a conventional mortgage, you’ll generally need a score of 620 or higher. However, the best mortgage rates go to borrowers with the highest credit scores, usually at least 740. In general, the more confident the lender is in your ability to repay the loan on time, the lower the interest rate it’ll offer.
Save up for a down payment. Putting more money down upfront can help you obtain a lower mortgage rate, and if you have 20 percent, you’ll avoid private mortgage insurance (PMI), which adds costs to your loan. If you’re a first-time homebuyer and can’t cover a 20 percent down payment, there are specific loans, grants and programs that can help. The eligibility varies by program, but often are based on factors like your income.
Understand your debt-to-income ratio. Your debt-to-income (DTI) ratio compares how much money you owe to how much money you make, specifically your total monthly debt payments against your gross monthly income. Not sure how to figure out your DTI ratio? Bankrate has a calculator for that.
Check out different mortgage loan types and terms. A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common option, but there are shorter terms. Adjustable-rate mortgages have also regained popularity recently.
FAQ
It might seem like a bank or lender are dictating mortgage terms, but in fact, mortgage rates are not directly set by any one entity. Instead, mortgage rates grow out of a complicated mix of economic factors. Lenders typically set their rates based on the return they need to make a profit after accounting for risks and costs.
The Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but it does set the overall tone. The closest proxy for mortgage rates is the 10-year Treasury yield. Historically, the typical 30-year mortgage rate is about 2 percentage points higher than the 10-year Treasury yield. In 2023, that “spread” has been more like 3 percentage points.
Mortgage rates have jumped to 23-year highs, so not many borrowers are opting to refinance their mortgages in late 2023. However, if rates come back down in the near future, homeowners could start looking to refinance.
Deciding when to refinance is based on many factors. If rates have fallen since you originally took out your mortgage, refinancing might make sense. A refi can also be a good idea if you’ve improved your credit score and could lock in a lower rate or lower fees. A cash-out refinance can accomplish that as well, plus give you the funds to pay for a home renovation or other expenses.