Diversifying your assets is one of the best ways to create a sustainable, long-term investment strategy. And one of the ways you can do this is by buying gold.
Investing in gold and other precious metals is a great way to protect yourself against inflation. It also allows you to put your money in an asset that will likely continue to retain its value.
Despite the numerous benefits of investing in gold, many individuals remain uncertain about its viability as an investment and the process for getting started. In this article, we will outline a comprehensive guide on how to buy gold in 2024.
Why should I consider investing in gold?
With growing concerns of an impending recession, investing in gold has become increasingly relevant. This precious metal boasts a multitude of advantageous features that make it a valuable asset to any well-rounded investment portfolio. Here are four reasons why investing in gold is a wise choice:
Gold protects you from inflation: If you’re investing in the stock market, there’s a lot that’s outside your control. But gold is an asset you’ll always have some level of control over, regardless of what happens on Wall Street.
It retains its value: Because gold is much harder to obtain, it retains its value much longer. And you never have to worry about it decaying or losing its structure.
Gold is a high-demand product: There are many ways to use gold, and it tends to be a product that’s in high demand. This is especially true when economic conditions are tight.
Gold is an insurance policy: While some people purchase gold because they’re hoping to make a profit. Others like the security of owning gold and keep it as insurance in case of an economic downturn. Either strategy is an equally valid reason for gold investments.
How do I start investing in gold?
So now that you understand why gold is a good investment, it’s essential to know how to buy and sell gold, so you can get started. Listed below are five steps to make sure you get started on the right path.
Step 1: Decide What Type of Gold You Want to Buy
Start by deciding what kind of gold you would like to purchase. Each product will require a slightly different purchasing strategy, so you need to be clear on this right from the start.
Here are the main types of gold most people choose to invest in:
Gold bullion: When people think of owning physical gold, gold bullion is what usually comes to mind. It is a form of pure gold certified for weight and purity, typically in the form of bars.
Gold coins: A popular option for investors, gold bullion coins are easy to store due to their small size. They can be bought at a premium price and are readily available from reputable dealers.
Gold ETFs: For those not interested in directly owning gold, gold-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer a convenient and cost-effective alternative. These shares can be bought and sold like stocks and are backed by a portfolio of gold-based securities.
Gold mutual funds: These mutual funds invest in companies involved in gold production, mining, and exploration. They may also invest in gold bullion, certificates, and derivatives.
Gold futures contracts: Gold futures are a type of futures contract allowing investors to buy or sell a specified amount of gold at a predetermined price and date in the future. They are best for experienced investors.
Gold jewelry: Accounting for 49% of global gold production, jewelry is a common form of gold ownership. However, it may not be the most profitable strategy, as retail jewelry prices come with substantial markups. Estate sales and auctions may offer better deals but require more time.
Gold mining stocks: With gold mining stocks, investors own a share in a gold mining company instead of the actual gold. These companies are large, global enterprises involved in the extraction and processing of gold ore. Investing in gold mining stocks is another way to profit from rising gold prices.
Gold IRAs: Similar to traditional retirement accounts, gold IRAs are backed by gold and other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium. They offer a unique investment opportunity for those looking to diversify their retirement portfolio. Here’s a list of the best gold IRA companies of 2024.
Step 2: Learn How Gold Prices Work
Before investing in gold, it’s essential to understand how gold prices work. The gold spot price, which reflects the cost of one ounce of gold, can fluctuate considerably based on market demand.
To ensure that you make wise investment decisions, research the market and stay up to date with its trends. In doing so, you’ll be poised to make the most of the opportunities presented by decreases in gold prices.
Step 3: Find a Trusted Seller
When investing in gold, you need to choose a trustworthy dealer. While purchasing gold online is convenient, be sure to exercise caution to avoid falling victim to scams.
To ensure that you purchase gold bullion or coins from a reputable source, consider consulting the U.S. Mint for a list of gold dealers in your area.
Once you have identified a potential dealer, make sure you evaluate their credibility. Gather information about their reputation through customer reviews and the Better Business Bureau.
It’s also a good idea to research the dealer’s buyback policies. Obtain a written copy of these policies and keep them in a safe place for future reference.
Step 4: Buy Physical Gold that You Can Sell
If you buy gold that is in demand, it will be easier when selling it at a later time. Stick to the most familiar gold coins and gold bars.
Gold Coins
The following are the most popular gold coins:
American Gold Eagle
Austrian Philharmonic
British Britannia
Canadian Maple Leaf
South African Krugerrand
Gold Bars
The most popular gold bullion bars include:
Credit Suisse
Perth Mint
Valcambi
Englehard
Johnson Matthey
PAMP Suisse
Step 5: Decide How You’ll Store the Gold
Finally, make sure you have a plan in place for storing your physical gold. Sticking several gold bars under your bed probably isn’t the wisest strategy. This puts you at greater risk of having your investment stolen.
Your best bet to store physical gold bars and coins is likely to purchase a safe for your home. You can also use a safe deposit box at a bank or rent a secure storage facility.
Conclusion
Investing in gold can be a rewarding journey, but only if you approach it with caution and foresight. First, decide the type of gold that aligns with your investment objectives, whether it be coins or bars, and make sure to source from a reputable dealer.
Additionally, consider the practical aspects of your investment strategy. For instance, if you opt for gold bars, consider the storage and security of your precious metal, and how you plan to sell it in the future. Gold bars can’t be easily divided, so take that into account.
Furthermore, you’ll need to factor in the rate of return on your gold investment. Ensure that the gold you purchase will not only keep pace with, but also surpass inflation, or you may end up with a loss in the long run.
And finally, avoid the common mistake of putting all your eggs in one basket, especially when it comes to gold investment. While gold and precious metals can be a lucrative component of your investment portfolio, they should never make up your entire investment strategy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is gold a good investment?
Gold is a unique asset that doesn’t provide regular income in the form of cash flow, unlike other investments. However, owning gold can still have many advantages for your overall investment portfolio.
By including gold in your asset mix, you can diversify your investments and reduce your overall risk exposure. This is particularly important during times of economic uncertainty, such as a recession.
When other investments may perform poorly, gold has historically held its value, helping to protect and stabilize your wealth. This characteristic of gold makes it a useful tool for managing risk and preserving your wealth over the long term.
What is the best way to buy gold?
Acquiring gold can be a smart investment choice, but it’s essential to choose the right seller. Reputable sources include banks, investment firms, and online gold retailers.
To ensure you make a wise decision, do your due diligence and find a dealer with a good reputation, competitive pricing, and dependable customer support.
Furthermore, being aware of the current spot price of gold and market trends is crucial to making an informed purchase. Ultimately, the best form of gold to buy is the one that aligns with your investment objectives and needs.
How much gold should I buy?
Experts generally suggest investing 5% to 10% of your portfolio in gold. During economic downturns and periods of high inflation, some recommend allocating a larger portion.
The ultimate decision on how much to invest in gold should be based on personal financial objectives, comfort with risk, and available funds. As a diversification tool and a hedge against market instability, gold is a consideration worth making.
How much does gold cost per ounce?
Gold can experience significant price swings due to a multitude of factors. These include the ebb and flow of supply and demand, the fluctuation of currency exchange rates, and the instability of political climates.
The value of gold is expressed in U.S. Dollars and is most commonly reported in troy ounces, a unit equivalent to 31.1 grams. As of this writing, gold is priced at around $1875.00 per ounce.
What is the safest way to store gold?
For the ultimate protection of your gold investments, consider utilizing a secure depository, a bank safe deposit box, or an at-home safe.
Depositories provide comprehensive security and insurance coverage. They are an excellent option for safeguarding valuable assets.
Safe deposit boxes, located within banks, offer added protection with key-controlled access. An at-home safe, properly installed and maintained, can also provide a secure storage solution.
As thousands of Chicago-area families go house-hunting this spring, the dream of homeownership continues to drift further and further away.
By Don DeBat
21-Apr-24 – Average long-term mortgage rates inched above 7 percent nationwide for the first time this year, reported Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey on April 18.
Benchmark 30-year fixed-rate home loan rates hit 7.10 percent, up from 6.88 percent a week earlier. That’s its highest level since October 26, 2023, when 30-year fixed loans hit 7.79 percent. A year ago, 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged a more affordable 6.39 percent.
“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surpassed 7 percent for the first time this year,” said Sam Khater (left), Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “As rates trend higher, potential home buyers are deciding whether to buy before rates rise even more or hold off in hopes of decreases later in the year.”
Interest charges on 15-year fixed loans on April 18 averaged 6.39 percent, up from 6.16 percent a week earlier. A year ago, 15-year fixed mortgages averaged 5.76 percent.
Khater noted that home purchase applications rose modestly the week before, but “it remains unclear how many home buyers can withstand increasing rates in the future.”
The Freddie Mac survey is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who place a down payment of 20 percent and have an excellent credit score of 740 or higher.
The truth is home buyers in Chicago and across the nation really are starting to get rate-shy. Sales of existing homes in the United States fell 4.3 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted 4.19 million, reported the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That’s the first monthly decline in sales since December 2023, and follows a nearly 10 percent monthly sales jump nationwide in February.
“Home sales essentially remain stuck because mortgage rates have been stable and inventory is not really rising,” said Laurence Yun (right), NAR’s Chief Economist.
Unfortunately, Yun predicted that mortgage rates are likely to rise above 7 percent in the coming weeks. Early in 2024, Yun had predicted that 30-year fixed loan rates would average 6.3 percent by the fourth quarter of this year.
The interest rate rise is a direct result of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes intended to tame soaring inflation numbers not seen in 40 years.
The Fed has raised its key benchmark lending rate to a range of 5.25 to 5.50 percent, the highest level since 2007. Based on moves by the Fed, mortgage analysts say 30-year fixed home loans could reach – or surpass – the 8 percent level in the near future. Home loan rates have not hit the lofty 8 percent level since August 11, 2000, more than 23 years ago.
Searching for a better deal, some borrowers are beginning to flock to riskier adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM), lenders say.
“This week we have issued 30-year loan commitments with rates as high as 7.5 percent, depending on down payments and borrower credit scores,” said Jeremy Rose (left), Chicago-based loan consultant for Loan Depot, one of the largest lenders in the nation. “Mortgage interest rates may have gradually declined over the past two decades, but home prices have tripled.”
Today, the buyer of a $400,000 home with a credit score of 740, who places a 25 percent down payment and takes out a $300,000 mortgage for 30 years at Loan Depot, would pay a rate of 7.5 percent. If the buyer is willing to pay a 1 percent discount point, or a loan fee of $3,000, the interest rate would drop to 7.125 percent.
“The most motivated buyers will accept the current level of mortgage rates and make offers when they find a place that’s suitable,” said Holden Lewis (right), a home and mortgage expert at Nerd Wallet. “High mortgage rates aren’t holding buyers back as much as lack of inventory and high prices.”
“If you’re always waiting for the perfect market conditions to arise, you could end up missing out on a lot of great opportunities,” warned Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at Lending Tree.
Mortgage rate history
Thirty-year fixed-mortgage interest rates ended 2020 at a rock-bottom 2.65 percent – the lowest level in the Freddie Mac survey history, which began in 1971.
Home loan rates set new record lows an amazing 16 times in 2020, and tens of thousands of homeowners refinanced.
Archives of the now-defunct Federal Housing Finance Board show long-term mortgage rates in the 1960s were not much higher than the Great Depression, when lenders were charging 5 percent on five-year balloon loans.
Nearly six decades ago, between 1963 and 1965, you could get a mortgage at 5.81 to 5.94 percent. Between 1971 and 1977, the now-defunct Illinois Usury Law held rates in the 7.6-to-9 percent range.
In the early 1980s, runaway inflation caused home loan rates to skyrocket into the stratosphere. According to Freddie Mac, benchmark 30-year mortgage rates peaked at a jaw-dropping 18.45 percent in October 1981 during that Great Recession.
Rates finally fell below 10 percent in April 1986, and then bounced in the 9-to-10 percent range during the balance of the 1980s. Twenty-three years ago, in August 2000, when some of today’s Millennial borrowers were still in diapers, lenders were quoting 8.04 percent.
(Left) October 1981 issue of Inc. magazine
Between 2002 and 2011, rates bounced in the 4-to-6 percent range. They inched into the 3-to-4 percent range until 2020, when they fell into the rock-bottom 2 percent bracket.
Whether it’s going to bed before midnight, eating broccoli, or dealing with your finances, doing the “right” thing can sometimes feel like a herculean effort.
Similar to an erratic sleep schedule or an aversion to eating green things, there are consequences to delaying wise financial moves. If you avoid creating a budget, putting your bills on autopay or learning how to invest, your financial life may become more stressful.
But knowing something is good for you isn’t always enough to make you do it. Many people have complicated feelings around money, and for good reason. Getting to the bottom of those feelings may be the most effective way to deal with avoidant tendencies.
Uncovering your financial beliefs
To get to the root of your financial anxieties, it may be helpful to learn about your “money scripts,” a term that’s a registered trademark of the Financial Psychology Institute. Money scripts are what financial therapists call the unconscious beliefs we hold about money. Often, these beliefs are rooted in our childhood and continue to shape our financial lives as adults.
Rick Kahler, a certified financial therapist and founder of the Kahler Financial Group in Rapid City, South Dakota, had one client who struggled to save despite being a high-earning professional. Through several interviews, Kahler learned that the client’s parents had filed for bankruptcy when she was a child, and in the process, she lost her own savings.
“She just knew that all her money that she worked hard to save disappeared. And so the lesson she took away from that was ‘don’t save money, because it will disappear,’” says Kahler.
Georgia Lee Hussey, a certified financial planner and founder of Modernist Financial, a B Corp wealth management firm in Portland, Oregon, says that taking what may seem to be a logical step, such as investing just a small amount, before unearthing your deeper emotions may sometimes do more harm than good.
“The small step to get closer to the logical action is actually a reinforcement of the mega story,” says Hussey.
Tools you can use
While uncovering your money scripts may feel daunting, there are a lot of tools out there that can help you get started. You can take the Klontz Money Script Inventory-Revised (KMSI-R), which is a free short quiz that helps you identify your dominant money scripts and offers actionable advice. The KMSI-R evaluation is offered by Your Mental Wealth Advisors, a financial advisor firm based in Burlingame, California, that focuses on overall financial health. Hussey’s firm offers a similar reflective experience you can download for free that can help you facilitate a conversation about your money history.
And if you’re able, it may be worth working with a financial therapist in conjunction with these tools.
“Working with a financial therapist can really help,” says Kahler. “But if a person doesn’t want to do that, they may want to employ journaling or mindfulness meditation that is specifically geared to money scripts. But typically, people can make pretty good progress in really focusing on their personal situation, and a financial therapist can help with that.”
Be ok with baby steps
After doing some deep work on your money story, and on how your long-held beliefs came to be, you may be feeling ready to take some small steps toward a better financial future.
A few baby steps you can consider could include moving your money into a high-yield savings account instead of a standard savings account. If you have a 401(k) with an employer match, you could also look into contributing enough to receive that match.
But be ready for those old stories to come up, because even an account type like a 401(k) may become an emotional stumbling block.
“One of my favorites from the Great Recession is, ‘I’m not going to invest in a 401(k) because my uncle lost all of his money in his 401(k),’” says Hussey. “It wasn’t the 401(k) that was the problem. It was your uncle, who in the middle of the night got freaked out and sold everything in his 401(k) at the bottom of the market. That’s actually what was wrong. It was the human making an emotional decision. The 401(k) itself is just a tax wrapper. It has no personality. It doesn’t do things to anybody. So let’s unpack what that story is about.”
Hussey encourages people to deeply investigate where the stories they’ve heard about investing came from.
“I think those kinds of questions like, ‘What am I telling myself? Where’s it coming from? Who told it? What was the location I heard that? Where do you think they heard that from?’ That’s how we start to unpack these stories about investing and saving,” says Hussey.
This article was written by NerdWallet and was originally published by The Associated Press.
Editorial Note: We earn a commission from partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors’ opinions or evaluations.
As we head into peak home-buying season, signs of life have begun to spring up in the housing market.
Even so, still-high mortgage rates and home prices amid historically low housing stock continue to put homeownership out of reach for many.
Moreover, the National Association of Realtors agreed to a monumental $418 million settlement on March 15 following a verdict favoring home sellers in a class action lawsuit. Still subject to court approval, the settlement requires changes to broker commissions that will upend the buying and selling model that has been in place for years.
Housing Market Forecast for 2024
Elevated mortgage rates, out-of-reach home prices and record-low housing stock are the perennial weeds that experts say hopeful home buyers can expect to contend with this spring—and beyond.
“The housing market is likely to continue to face the dual affordability constraints of high home prices and elevated interest rates in 2024,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, in an emailed statement. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast.”
Despite ongoing affordability hurdles, Fannie Mae forecasts an increase in home sales transactions compared to last year. Experts also anticipate a slower rise in home prices this year compared to recent years, but price fluctuations will continue to vary regionally and depend strongly on local market supply.
U.S. home prices declined in January for the third consecutive month due to high borrowing costs, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. But prices year-over-year jumped 6%—the fastest annual rate since 2022.
Chief economist at First American Financial Corporation Mark Fleming predicts a “flat stretch” ahead.
“If the 2020-2021 housing market was too hot, then the 2023 market was probably too cold, but 2024 won’t yet be just right,” Fleming said in his 2024 forecast.
Will the Housing Market Finally Recover in 2024?
For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.
“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”
And, of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off—which experts say is imminent despite rates edging back up toward 7%. For the week ending April 11, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.88%, according to Freddie Mac.
However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.
“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.
He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.
Nonetheless, Kuba Jewgieniew, CEO of Realty ONE Group, a real estate brokerage company, is optimistic about a recovery this year.
“[W]e’re definitely looking forward to a better housing market in 2024 as interest rates start to settle around 6% or even lower,” says Jewgieniew.
NAR Settlement Rocks the Residential Real Estate Industry
Following years of litigation, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers.
The plaintiffs claimed that the leading national trade association for real estate brokers and agents “conspired to require home sellers to pay the broker representing the buyer of their homes in violation of federal antitrust law.”
Though the landmark settlement is subject to court approval, most consider it a done deal.
The settlement requires NAR to enact new rules, including prohibiting offers of broker compensation on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings. The rule is set to take effect in mid-July, once the settlement receives judge approval.
Moreover, sellers will no longer be required to pay buyer broker commissions and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with their buyer clients.
NAR denies any wrongdoing and maintains that its current policies benefit buyers and sellers. The organization believes it’s not liable for seller claims related to broker commissions, stating that it has never set commissions and that commissions have always been negotiable.
How Will the New Rules Impact the Buying and Selling Process?
Per the settlement’s terms, the costs associated with buying and selling a home are set to change dramatically.
“The primary things that will change are the decoupling of the seller commission and the buyer commission in the MLS,” says Rita Gibbs, a Realtor at Realty One Group Integrity in Tucson. “It’s gonna cause some chaos.”
While sellers will no longer be able to offer broker compensation in the MLS, there’s no rule prohibiting off-MLS negotiations. Because of this, Gibbs suspects buyers and sellers will continue offering broker compensation off the MLS.
The Department of Justice confirmed it will permit listing brokers to display compensation details on their websites. However, buyer agents will need to undergo the tedious task of visiting countless broker websites to find who’s offering what.
Michael Gorkowski, a Virginia-based real estate agent with Compass, is also trying to figure out how to manage the potential ruling.
“We often work with buyers for many months and sometimes years before they find exactly what they’re looking for,” Gorkowski says. “So in a case where a seller isn’t offering a co-broker commission, we will have to negotiate that the buyer pays an agreed-upon commission prior to starting their search.”
The Changes Will Impact These Home Buyers Most
“In the short term, it is absolutely going to injure buyers, especially FHA and VA buyers,” Gibbs says. “With rare exception, these buyers are not in a position to pay for their own agent.”
Gibbs says that if sellers don’t offer compensation, many buyers who can’t otherwise afford to pay a broker will choose to go unrepresented.
Gorkowski notes that veterans taking out VA loans face a unique challenge under the new rules. “[P]er the VA requirements, buyers cannot pay so it must be negotiated with the seller for now.”
As a result, NAR is calling on the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to revise its policies prohibiting VA buyers from paying broker commissions. Even so, there’s skepticism that the federal government will be able to implement changes in time for the July deadline.
Gibbs and Gorkowski are among the many agents especially concerned about first-time home buyers. After July, first-time and VA buyers will be required to sign a buyer-broker agreement stating that they will compensate their broker—but Gibbs says many won’t have the means to do so.
In this situation, agents would likely only show buyers homes where sellers are offering compensation.
“This is a very troubling situation,” Gorkowski says.
Housing Inventory Forecast for 2024
With many homeowners “locked in” at ultra-low interest rates or unwilling to sell due to high home prices, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while—even as some homeowners may finally be forced to sell due to major life events such as divorce, job changes or a growing family.
“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.
Housing stock remains near historic lows—especially entry-level supply—which has propped up demand and sustained ultra-high home prices. Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.
Yet, some hopeful housing stock signs have begun to sprout:
Existing inventory is showing signs of loosening as impatient buyers and sellers have begun to accept the reality of mortgage rates oscillating between 6% and 7%.
Home-builder outlook also continues to get sunnier, trending back up amid declining mortgage rates and better building conditions.
The most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks builder sentiment, saw a fourth consecutive monthly rise, surpassing a crucial threshold with an increase from 48 to 51 in March. A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.
At the same time, new single-family building permits ticked up 1% in February—the 13th consecutive monthly increase—according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales
Though some housing market data indicates signs of growth are in store this spring home-buying season, persistently high mortgage rates may hinder activity from fully flourishing.
Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.
Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales came to life in February, shooting up 9.5% from the month before, according to the latest data from the NAR. Sales dipped 3.3% from a year ago.
Experts attribute the monthly jump to a bump in inventory.
“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report.
Existing inventory rose 5.9%—logging 1.07 million unsold homes at the end of February. However, there are still only 2.9 months of inventory at the current sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market falling between four and six months.
Meanwhile, existing home prices continue to soar to unprecedented heights, reaching $384,500, which marks the eighth consecutive month of yearly price increases and a February median home price record.
New Home Sales
Sales of newly constructed single-family houses ticked down by a nominal 0.3% compared to January, but outpaced February 2023 sales by 5.9%, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.
Amid a high percentage of homeowners still locked in to low mortgage rates, home builders have been picking up the slack.
“New construction continues to be an outsized share of the housing inventory,” said Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, in an emailed statement.
Sturtevant notes that declining new home prices are coming amid a recent trend of builders introducing smaller and more affordable homes to the market.
The median price for a new home in February was $400,500, down 7.6% from a year ago.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Pending Home Sales
NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index rose 1.6% in February from the month prior even as mortgage rates approached 7% by the end of the month. Pending transactions declined 7% year-over-year.
A pending home sale marks the point in the home sales transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator of future closed sales.
The Midwest and South saw monthly transaction gains while the Northeast and West saw declines due to affordability challenges in those higher-cost regions.
“While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress from the lows of late last year,” said Yun, in the report.
Ongoing Affordability Challenges Could Throw Cold Water on Spring Home-Buying Hopes
Though down from its 2023 high of 7.79%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2024 remains well over 6% amid rising home values. As a result, home buyers continue to face affordability challenges.
According to data from its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report, property data provider Attom found that median-priced single-family homes remain less affordable than the historical average in over 95% of U.S. counties.
For one, the data uncovered that expenses are eating up more than 32% of the average national wage. Common lending guidelines require monthly mortgage payments, property taxes and homeowners insurance to comprise 28% or less of your gross income.
At the same time, home prices and homeownership expenses continue to outpace wage growth.
Consequently, the latest expense-to-wage ratio is hovering at one of the highest points over the past decade, according to the Attom report, despite some slight affordability improvements over the last two quarters.
“Affording a home remains a financial stretch, or a pipe dream, for so many households,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom.
Pro Tips for Buyers and Sellers
Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.
Pro Tips for Buying in Today’s Real Estate Market
Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:
Know your budget. Instead of focusing on price, figure out how much you can afford as a monthly payment. Your monthly housing payment is influenced by the price of the home, your down payment, mortgage rate, loan term, home insurance and property taxes.
Be flexible about home size and location. Perhaps your budget is sufficient for a small home in your perfect neighborhood, or a larger, newer home further out. Understanding your priorities and having some flexibility can help you move quickly when a suitable home enters the market.
Keep an eye on the market where you hope to buy. Determine the area’s available inventory and price levels. Also, pay attention to how quickly homes sell. Not only will you be tuned in when something great hits the market, you can feel more confident moving forward with purchasing a well-priced home. A real estate agent can help with this.
Don’t be discouraged. Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions you’ll ever make. Approaching the market confidently, armed with good information and grounded expectations will take you far. Don’t let the hustle of the market convince you to buy something that’s not in your budget, or not right for your lifestyle.
Pro Tips for Selling in Today’s Real Estate Market
Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:
Research comparable home prices in your area. Sellers need to have the most up-to-date pricing intel on comparable homes selling in their market. Know the market competition and price the home competitively. In addition, understand that in some price points it’s a buyer’s market—you’ll need to be prepared to make some concessions.
Make sure your home is in top-notch shape. Homes need to be in great condition to compete and create a strong “online curb appeal.” Well-maintained homes and attractive front yards are major features that buyers look for.
Work with a local real estate agent. A real estate agent or team with a strong local marketing presence and access to major real estate portals can offer significant value and help you land a great deal.
Don’t put off issues that require attention. Prepare the home by making any repairs or improvements. Removing any objections that buyers may see helps focus the buyer on the positive attributes of the home.
Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?
Despite some areas of the country experiencing monthly price declines, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.
“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.
Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.
“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.
“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.
Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.
Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.
“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.
Will Foreclosures Increase in 2024?
In February, total foreclosure filings were down 1% from the previous month but up 8% from a year ago, according to Attom.
“These trends could signify evolving financial landscapes for homeowners, prompting adjustments in market strategies and lending practices,” said Barber, in a report.
Lenders began foreclosure on 22,575 properties in February, up 4% from the previous month and 11% from a year ago. Meanwhile, real estate-owned properties, or REOs, which are homes unsold at foreclosure auctions and taken over by lenders, spiked year-over-year in three states: South Carolina (up 51%), Missouri (up 50%) and Pennsylvania (up 46%).
Despite foreclosure activity trending up nationally and certain areas of the country seeing notable annual increases in REOs, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.
“Foreclosure activity is still only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels … and isn’t likely to be back to 2019 numbers until sometime in mid-to-late 2024,” says Sharga.
The biggest reasons for this, Sharga explains, are the strength of the economy—we’re still seeing low unemployment and steady wage growth—along with excellent loan quality.
Massive home price growth in homeowner equity over the past few years has also helped reduce foreclosures.
Sharga says that some 80% of today’s homeowners have more than 20% equity in their property. So, while there may be more foreclosure starts in 2024—due in part to Covid-era mortgage relief programs phasing out—foreclosure auctions and lender repossessions should remain below 2019 levels.
When Will Be the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2024?
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.
Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.
“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”
Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.
“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”
Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Will declining mortgage rates cause home prices to rise?
Declining mortgage rates will likely incentivize would-be buyers anxious to own a home to jump into the market. Expect this increased demand amid today’s tight housing supply to put upward pressure on home prices.
What will happen if the housing market crashes?
Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.
Is it smart to buy real estate before a recession?
If you’re in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it won’t matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. However, if you are looking to buy real estate as a short-term investment, it will come with more risk if you buy at the height before a recession.
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The Upshot
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A Huge Number of Homeowners Have Mortgage Rates Too Good to Give Up
On a scale not seen in decades, many Americans are stuck in homes they would rather leave.
949
Emily Badger and
April 15, 2024
Something deeply unusual has happened in the American housing market over the last two years, as mortgage rates have risen to around 7 percent.
Rates that high are not, by themselves, historically remarkable. The trouble is that the average American household with a mortgage is sitting on a fixed rate that’s a whopping three points lower.
Rates on new home loans now far surpass rates locked in by Americans with existing
mortgages.
2%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2023
Average fixed mortgage rates
8%
Existing
mortgages
6%
3.2-
point
gap
Rates on
new loans
4%
Rates on new home loans now far surpass rates locked in by Americans with existing
mortgages.
2%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2023
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency analysis. Note: New loan figures show the predicted rate that existing mortgage holders could get on the same mortgages at new market conditions.
The gap that has jumped open between these two lines has created a nationwide lock-in effect — paralyzing people in homes they may wish to leave — on a scale not seen in decades. For homeowners not looking to move anytime soon, the low rates they secured during the pandemic will benefit them for years to come. But for many others, those rates have become a complication, disrupting both household decisions and the housing market as a whole.
new research from economists at the Federal Housing Finance Agency, this lock-in effect is responsible for about 1.3 million fewer home sales in America during the run-up in rates from the spring of 2022 through the end of 2023. That’s a startling number in a nation where around five million homes sell annually in more normal times — most of those to people who already own.
These locked-in households haven’t relocated for better jobs or higher pay, and haven’t been able to downsize or acquire more space. They also haven’t opened up homes for first-time buyers. And that’s driven up prices and gummed up the market.
Share of existing mortgages with rates below or above new market rates Percentage point difference from rates on new mortgages BELOW
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
ABOVE
Federal Housing Finance Agency analysis. Note: Data covers all fixed-rate mortgages in the U.S.
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Which sectors do well at which times? Sector rotation is an investment strategy that tries to find out – and profit from that information.
What is sector rotation?
Sector-rotating investors often divide the business cycle — the neverending sequence of economic booms and busts — into four phases that can be bucketed as follows: recession, bull market, peak and bear market. The idea is that specific sectors outperform the others at specific points in the cycle.
Which sectors outperform at which times? Depending on who you ask, you’re likely to get a slightly different answer, and there’s some disagreement on whether one particular sector is a better option in the tail end of one phase or the beginning of another — but the table below highlights some popular theories.
Stage of economic cycle
Sectors that may outperform
Technology
Bull market
Industrials, materials, energy
Communication services, financials
Bear market
Health care, utilities
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Sector rotation ETFs
Some ETF issuers take the guesswork out of sector rotation for you, by doing it themselves within a sector rotation ETF. The SPDR SSGA US Sector Rotation ETF (XLSR) and the Main Sector Rotation ETF (SECT) are examples.
Both use their own separate methodologies, but they have one thing in common — they’ve both underperformed the S&P 500 index over the last year.
Does sector rotation work?
The fact that sector rotation ETFs underperform the S&P 500 is not the only mark against sector rotation strategies. In a widely-cited 2007 paper, economists at Massey University in New Zealand examined US stock returns between 1948 and 2006. They found that sector rotation strategies tend to underperform simpler strategies.
“We conclude that, contrary to conventional market wisdom, rotating sectors over business-cycles is unlikely to be an optimal investment strategy and question the widespread acceptance of sector rotation as a strategy that provides investors with relative outperformance,” the researchers wrote
.
So sector rotation may not be a silver bullet, at least with the sector rotation methods we have today. It’s possible that some investor or economist could discover an easy and reliable sector rotation method in the future, but they haven’t figured one out yet.
Until then, investors may find it helpful to take one page from the book of sector rotation: Investing through ETFs. This is one easy way to provide investment diversification to a portfolio.
Track your finances all in one place
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Neither the author nor editor owned positions in the aforementioned investments at the time of publication.
Active inventory still needs to be faster for my taste. My model has active inventory growing at least 11,000-17,000 every week with higher rates. This model was based on rates over 7.25%, but even when mortgage rates headed toward 8% last year, we didn’t see that kind of growth in inventory. This week, inventory fell week to week, but that’s the Easter bunny’s fault.
The same week last year (March 30-April 7): Inventory rose from 410,734 to 411,577
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,021,567
New listings data
While the number of new listings isn’t growing as fast as I thought it would this year, it’s still growing, which means we have more sellers looking to buy a home once they sell. This variable can change when we experience a recession or job loss. However, for now, this is a plus for the U.S. housing market, and we should ignore the decline last week.
Number of new listings last week, by year:
2024: 54,769
2023: 55,008
2022: 63,374
Price-cut percentage
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates go higher and demand falls, the price-cut percentage grows; when rates drop, and demand gets better, the percentage falls.
It’s also critical to consider the year-over-year data with this line. Last year, when mortgage rates were heading toward 8%, the year-over-year price-cut percentage was continuously declining, which makes sense when you consider 2022 was a very abnormal year with the most significant home sales crash ever. As inventory is growing and demand isn’t booming on the mortgage side of things, the price-cut percentage is increasing year over year.
It’s critical to keep track of this data line as it shows price growth cooling down. That’s always what the doctor ordered because we have had massive housing inflation post-COVID-19. Having accurate weekly data gives us a big advantage to see what’s coming next.
Here’s the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
2024: 32%
2023: 29.9%
2022: 17.6%
10-year yield and mortgage rates
We had some good and bad news last week with mortgage rates.
First, the bad news” The 10-year yield broke a critical support level on Friday, and if we get more bond market selling, that will pressure mortgage rates higher.
But the good news is that the spread between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates is getting much better, sooner than I thought it would this year. We didn’t see much reaction on Friday with mortgage rates because the spreads were good. This is a huge plus because if and when the 10-year yield falls and if the spreads get even better, this means we could quickly get sub-6% mortgage rates with the 10-year yield at 3.37% — without it even breaking my “Gandalf line in the sand.”
I wrote a detailed article on Friday analyzing the jobs report, and showing how the latest labor data gives the Federal Reserve a pathway to land the plane if they want. See here for more details and charts.
As you can see below, even though the growth rate of inflation has fallen a lot, CPI inflation has gone from over 9% year over year to 3.2%; the 10-year yield is still elevated. As always, the labor data is more important than inflation data for now.
Purchase application data
Purchase application data didn’t move much last week, making it back-to-back weeks with flat weekly data. It was flat on a week-to-week basis and down 13% year over year. Since November 2023, after making holiday adjustments, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints and two flat prints. Year to date, we have had four positive prints, six negative prints and two flat prints.
The data tells me that since late 2022, many people have been waiting for lower mortgage rates, and even though rates are elevated compared to the last decard, people still jumped back into the market. Imagine if mortgage rates stayed near 6% for a year — mortgage demand would grow and we wouldn’t need tax credits to boost demand for existing homes.
Week ahead: Inflation week!
We are jumping right from jobs week into inflation week with the upcoming CPI and PPI inflation data. These will be important reports as many market players have used the seasonal base pricing variable as a reason why the last two months’ inflation data was a bit hotter than usual. This week will be critical to watch because if the inflation data comes in cooler than anticipated, the 10-year yield should fall, and with spreads getting better, that will be a plus for mortgage rates.
A home equity loan or line of credit (HELOC) leverages your ownership stake to help you finance large costs over time.
Home equity financing offers more money at a lower interest rate than credit cards or personal loans.
Some of the most common (and best) reasons for using home equity include paying for home renovations, consolidating debt and covering emergency or medical bills.
Although allowable, it’s best to avoid using home equity for discretionary purchases and expenses.
The U.S. seems to have dodged a recession, but elevated interest rates, rising prices and shrinking savings continue to imperil many Americans’ financial security. Borrowing hasn’t been this expensive in 20 years and, to add insult to injury, it’s harder to get financing or credit, too. Half of Americans who’ve applied for a loan or financial product since March 2022 (when the Fed started raising its key benchmark rate) have been rejected, according to Bankrate’s recent credit denials survey).
But amid still-high mortgage rates and home prices, there’s a silver lining for homeowners. The rise in property values has increased the worth of their home equity, or outright ownership stake. You can borrow against that equity to meet new expenses — or settle old ones.
Two options to tap into your equity are home equity loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). They may not be as well-known as other financing options (in Bankrate’s credit denials survey, only 4 percent of Americans have applied for one since March 2022), but they have several advantages.
If you’re a homeowner needing cash, here are 10 reasons to use home equity — some better than others. In each case, we’ve noted the pros and cons.
$299,000
Amount the average mortgage-holder had in home equity as of year-end 2023, up $25,000 from 2022
Source:
ICE Mortgage Technology
Why use home equity?
Key terms
Home equity
Home equity is the difference between what your home is worth and how much you still owe on your mortgage. As you pay down your mortgage and your home’s value increases, your equity stake grows.
Home equity loan
A home equity loan is a type of second mortgage in which you receive a lump sum upfront and then make regular monthly repayments over the loan term, usually at a fixed interest rate.
HELOC
A HELOC is a revolving line of credit, much like a credit card, that comes with a variable rate. You can borrow, repay and then re-use funds as needed during a set draw period and then pay off your balance during a repayment period.
Tapping your home’s equity can help you cover significant expenses, improve your financial situation or achieve any other money goal. The interest rates on a home equity loan or HELOC are usually lower than those on other forms of financing, and you can often obtain more funds with an equity product compared to a credit card, which might have a lower limit, or a personal loan. Home equity loans and HELOCs are also repaid over a longer term, meaning you’ll have more manageable payments month to month.
10 reasons to use a home equity loan
There aren’t any restrictions on how to use equity in your home, but there are a few ways to make the most of a home equity loan or HELOC. Here are 10 ways to use your home equity, along with their pros and cons.
1. Home improvements
Home improvement is one of the most common reasons homeowners take out home equity loans or HELOCs. Besides making the home more comfortable, upgrades could make it more valuable.
“Home equity is a great option to finance large projects like a kitchen renovation that will increase a home’s value over time,” says Glenn Brunker, president of online lender Ally Home. “Many times, these investments will pay for themselves by increasing the home’s value.”
Another reason to consider a home equity loan or HELOC for renovations: You could deduct the interest paid on the loan, assuming you itemize your deductions on tax return.
Pros
You can reinvest your home’s equity to increase the value of your property.
If you itemize your tax return, you could deduct the interest on your home equity loan or HELOC, up to the limit.
A HELOC, which allows gradual withdrawals, in particular can be ideal for long-term projects in which you pay contractors at set intervals, or ones in which the final cost is indefinite.
Cons
The monthly payments on a home equity loan or HELOC, coupled with your monthly mortgage payments, could stretch your budget too thin.
Depending on the scope of the remodel, you might need more than what you can borrow from your equity.
If you can’t repay the home equity loan or HELOC, the lender could foreclose on your home.
2. Education costs
A home equity loan or HELOC can help you fund higher education or continuing education, whether for you, your children or other loved ones. This route typically only makes sense, however, when home equity rates are lower than student loan rates. That doesn’t happen often, especially compared to federal student loans.
Consider, too, the type of education you’re financing. Someone obtaining a teaching certification, for example, might be able to get the cost covered by their future employer. Some public service professions are also eligible for student loan forgiveness after a period of time. In these cases, it wouldn’t be smart to put your home on the line with an equity loan.
Pros
Could be a lower-interest option than a private student loan, a federal parent loan or a personal loan.
HELOC gradual withdrawal structure tailor-made for annual or semi-annual tuition payments.
Could furnish a greater sum than a student loan.
Cons
Repayment starts sooner (with a home equity loan).
Rates not as competitive as federal student loans’.
Tapping home equity is riskier: If you default, you could lose your home.
The student might be able to get financial help in other ways, such as from a future employer or via loan forgiveness.
3. Debt consolidation
Americans’ credit card debt is skyrocketing. According to Bankrate’s recent credit card survey, nearly half (49 percent) of credit card holders carry a balance from month to month, up from 39 percent in 2021. Given their average interest rate of 22.75 percent, paying down that debt can be tricky — and expensive.
A HELOC or home equity loan can be used to pay off the plastic, along with other high-interest loans. “This is another very popular use of home equity, as one is often able to consolidate debt at a much lower rate over a longer term and reduce monthly expenses significantly,” says Matt Hackett, operations manager at mortgage lender Equity Now.
Home Equity
According to Bankrate’s February 2024 credit card repayment strategies survey, only 10% of credit card-holding U.S. adults report using a home equity loan and/or line of credit to consolidate and pay off credit card debt.
Pros
You could save on interest and lower your monthly payments.
Eliminating credit card debt boosts your credit score.
Cons
You’re turning an unsecured debt, such as a credit card, into secured debt now backed by your home. If you default on your equity loan or HELOC, you could lose your house to foreclosure.
If you haven’t broken the financial habits that got you into debt in the first place, or come up with a plan for repayment, you’re simply swapping one form of debt for another.
4. Emergency expenses
Many financial experts agree you should have an emergency fund to cover three to six months of living expenses, but that’s not the reality for many Americans, according to Bankrate’s 2024 annual emergency savings survey. If you find yourself in a costly situation — maybe you’re facing large medical bills or unexpected home repairs — a home equity loan or HELOC can be one way to stay afloat.
However, this is only a viable option if you have a plan for how to repay the debt. While you might feel better knowing you could access your home equity in case of an emergency, it still makes smart financial sense to set up and start contributing to an emergency fund. Plus, the application process for a HELOC or home equity loan takes time (though it’s speeded up of late: Some online lenders, such as Better, are offering approval decisions within one day). In a true emergency when you need cash fast, you’d need to already have the loan in place to use it.
Pros
If you’re in an emergency situation and have no other means to come up with the necessary cash, a home equity loan or HELOC could be the answer.
Cons
If you don’t have a HELOC or home equity loan already established, you’ll need to complete the application process first. So these loans won’t do you any good in a time-sensitive emergency.
You’re depleting your ownership stake, diluting the worth of a major asset: your home.
5. Weddings
The average cost of a wedding in 2023 was $35,000, according to the planning site The Knot — up $5,000 from 2022. For some couples, it might make sense to take out a home equity loan or HELOC to cover this expense, rather than a wedding loan, a type of personal loan. That’s because the interest rates on personal loans are typically higher than interest rates for home equity loans and HELOCs.
The major disadvantage, however: You’d be putting your home on the line for a discretionary expense. This can be risky if you don’t have a solid plan to repay the loan. It also tacks on interest to an expense that didn’t have interest to begin with, ultimately costing you more.
If you do go this route, be careful not to take out more than you need. If you’re unsure of the total tab for your big day, a HELOC is the better option.
Pros
Rates probably cheaper than those of personal loans or credit cards.
You may be able to access more funds than you would with other loans.
Cons
It’s a questionable move to put your home on the line for what’s essentially a big party.
You’re paying interest, so your wedding will cost more than you think: You could be paying for it decades after you wed.
When the loan’s used this way, the interest isn’t tax-deductible.
6. Business expenses
Some business owners use their home equity to start or grow their company. If you need capital, you might be able to save money on interest by taking equity out of your home instead of taking out a business loan. Before you commit, though, run the numbers. A return on investment isn’t guaranteed, and you’re putting your house on the line.
Pros
You might be able to borrow money at a lower interest rate with a home equity loan than you would with a small business loan.
It might be easier to obtain capital with a home equity loan than with a loan tied to your business, especially if you’re just starting out.
Cons
If your business fails, you’d still need to make payments on what you borrowed, regardless of lack of earnings. If you can’t, you could face foreclosure.
7. Investment opportunities
It’s possible to use home equity to invest in the stock market or buy a rental property — though both propositions are risky and require serious care and consideration. A well-qualified borrower might be able to take out a home equity loan on an investment property, as well.
Consider the interest rate on home equity borrowing, especially if you’re using the funds for investment purposes. “With interest rates of 9 percent, 10 percent or even higher, this is no longer low-cost debt,” says Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst. “At rates that high, it is a tough hurdle to clear to get a positive return on your investment.”
Pros
Investing in the stock market or real estate can be a great way to build wealth.
Leveraging assets to invest increases your rate of return.
Cons
Investments always carry risk, but that’s especially true when you’re putting your home on the line. It’s possible that you won’t earn a high enough return to outweigh your loan debt.
You can’t take advantage of the home equity loan’s tax deduction on interest, except in a few cases, such as buying adjacent property or land.
8. Retirement income
If your retirement savings are falling short, tapping home’s equity can help supplement your income so you can better manage expenses. These funds can be used to cover bills, emergency expenses or even home improvements to make you more comfortable as you age. A big caveat: This strategy relies on your ability to repay the loan or HELOC. If you’re not yet drawing Social Security, you might be able to repay HELOC funds with the benefit money later on. If you’re fully retired and struggling to make ends meet, however, it’s possible you won’t have the means to repay the debt, even if you have a HELOC you don’t have to pay back right away.
There are other roadblocks to this strategy, too: If you’re still paying your first mortgage, tapping your equity adds to your expenses and puts you in debt that much longer. It might also be harder to even get an equity loan if your income has decreased in retirement.
Pros
Using your hard-acquired home wealth as source for retirement income can be a smart use of assets.
Cons
You’ll need to think through how to repay your loan while you’re retired, and even afterwards. Home equity debt doesn’t disappear when you pass away — your heirs will have to work with your lender if they want to keep the home.
It could be harder to qualify for a home equity loan with a lower retirement income.
Home Equity
If you need retirement income, a reverse mortgage may be a better option than a home equity loan or HELOC. With a reverse mortgage, your lender pays you a lump sum or a series of monthly payments; how much you can get is based on your home’s value. The loan balance (plus interest) becomes due when you move out, sell the home or pass away. Most reverse mortgages include a “non-recourse” clause, which stipulates that you (or your estate) can’t owe more than the home’s value when the loan becomes due (so if the home’s depreciated and worth less than the loan balance, no one is on the hook for the difference). The advantages: There are no monthly repayments while you’re living in the home, and there are no income or credit score requirements, so you can qualify even if you’re struggling financially. However, to get a reverse mortgage, you usually need to be 62 or older and have substantial equity in your home — meaning, your primary mortgage be substantially, if not entirely, paid off.
9. Funding a vacation
Traveling can come with a steep price tag, and tapping your home’s equity could help cover the costs without having to increase your credit card debt. Even the best vacations don’t last forever, though, and home equity debt can linger for decades, so weigh your decision carefully. Is the trip worth potentially risking your house to pay for?
Pros
Home equity loans typically have lower interest rates than credit cards, which could save you money.
Cons
Putting your home on the line is an extremely risky way to finance a trip that will be over in a matter of days — and you’ll still be paying for it many years after it’s over, which could ultimately cost you more in interest.
10. Other big-ticket items
It’s possible to use your home equity for big-ticket purchases, but it doesn’t add up in many cases. Home equity loans have much longer repayment terms than auto loans, for example, resulting in lower monthly payments, but much more interest over time. Cars are also depreciating assets, meaning your car will be worth much less than you paid for it by the time you finish repaying the equity loan.
Pros
You could finance a larger purchase, like a car.
Cons
Your home’s equity isn’t worth leveraging on an expense that won’t give you a solid return. With the example of buying a car, you’ll be risking your home for an asset that will be worth less than what you paid for it by the time you’ve finished repaying the loan.
Using home equity FAQ
The amount of home equity you can borrow against depends on a number of factors, including how much the home is worth, the outstanding balance on your mortgage and your credit score. Assuming you’re well-qualified, many home equity lenders allow you to tap up to 80 percent of your equity.
As with any loan product, a home equity loan or HELOC can hurt your credit score in the short term, in part because you’re taking on more debt and potentially raising your credit utilization ratio. Over time, however, your credit score could go up as you make regular monthly payments on your home equity loan. It’s possible to get a home equity loan with bad credit, too.
It can be. You can deduct home equity loan interest if you use the funds to “buy, build or substantially improve” the home that was used to secure the loan, according to the IRS. You must itemize deductions on your tax return, and — similar to the mortgage deduction — there are limits as to how much you can deduct.
Yes. The closing costs for home equity loans and HELOCs can range from 1 percent to 5 percent of your loan amount. These can include many of the same closing costs as a typical real estate closing, such as origination, appraisal and credit report fees. HELOC lenders also often charge annual fees to keep the line open, as well as an early termination fee if you close it within three years of opening. You could also incur a charge if you decide to convert your HELOC balance to a fixed interest rate.
If you’ve just closed on a home and need cash, you can generally tap into your home equity right away. However, some lenders require borrowers to wait several months before applying for a home equity loan or HELOC. And whether there’s a waiting period or not, you’ll have to meet the lender’s eligibility requirements. These can include credit score minimums, income verification and debt-to-income (DTI) ratio maximums. Most importantly, you’ll also need at least 20 percent equity in your home to qualify, though some lenders accept 15 percent.
Affiliate links for the products on this page are from partners that compensate us (see our advertiser disclosure with our list of partners for more details). However, our opinions are our own. See how we rate mortgages to write unbiased product reviews.
Mortgage rates have gone down in recent days. This week, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.37%, according to Zillow data. This is 24 basis points down from the previous week’s average. But they could tick back up in the next couple of weeks depending on how some major economic reports turn out.
Most major forecasters expect mortgage rates to decline in 2024, but so far we haven’t seen any signs of a sustained drop. As we get more data showing that inflation is cooling, mortgage rates should start trending down more definitively. But if inflation remains sticky for longer than expected, rates will likely stay near their current levels.
On Friday, the Commerce Department released the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures price index data. The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The latest data showed that prices rose 2.5% year over year in February. This is a slight uptick from the previous month.
Fed officials have indicated that they expect the path to lower inflation to be bumpy, and that they’re waiting for more data before they’ll consider lowering the federal funds rate.
The sooner the Fed can start cutting rates, the sooner mortgage rates will start to fall. At the moment, investors are anticipating that first cut to come at the Fed’s June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. But hotter-than-expected economic data could push that timeline back.
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Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s interest rates will affect your monthly payments:
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$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By clicking on “More details,” you’ll also see how much you’ll pay over the entire length of your mortgage, including how much goes toward the principal vs. interest.
Mortgage Rate Projection for 2024
Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased dramatically in 2022 and throughout most of 2023.
Many forecasts expect rates to fall this year now that inflation has been coming down. In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.2%, a significant slowdown compared when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022. But we’ll likely need to see more slowing before rates can drop substantially.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
When Will House Prices Come Down?
We aren’t likely to see home prices drop this year. In fact, they’ll probably rise.
Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 3.20% in 2024 and 0.30% in 2025, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 4.10% increase in 2024 and a 3.30% increase in 2024.
Sky high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices. But rates have since eased, removing some of that pressure. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which will likely push prices up.
What Happens to House Prices in a Recession?
House prices usually drop during a recession, but not always. When it does happen, it’s generally because fewer people can afford to purchase homes, and the low demand forces sellers to lower their prices.
How Much Mortgage Can I Afford?
A mortgage calculator can help you determine how much house you can afford. Play around with different home prices and down payment amounts to see how much your monthly payment could be, and think about how that fits in with your overall budget.
Typically, experts recommend spending no more than 28% of your gross monthly income on housing expenses. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn’t exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
The lower your rate, the more you’ll be able to borrow, so shop around and get preapproved with multiple mortgage lenders to see who can offer you the best rate. But remember not to borrow more than what your budget can comfortably handle.
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In 2024, homebuyers can expect lower mortgage rates, higher home prices, and a lot more competition.
Hopeful buyers should start preparing as early as possible by saving money and paying down debt to improve credit scores.
Look into affordable mortgage programs and down payment assistance to boost affordability.
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After watching mortgage rates hit two-decade highs and inventory plummet last year, many hopeful homebuyers are eager to get off the sidelines and into a home.
While 2024 is expected to be a better year for the housing market in many respects, a lot of buyers are still going to struggle to find affordability. If you’re planning to buy a house this year, here’s what you need to know about housing market predictions in 2024, and how you can prepare.
Home price predictions 2024
Experts generally expect home prices to increase in 2024.
Low home inventory is a chronic problem in the US. This has generally kept home prices up, even as mortgage rates peaked near 8% and homebuying demand plummeted last year. Demand is expected to increase this year, so even if home prices were to drop in 2024, they likely wouldn’t fall enough to significantly improve affordability on their own.
Mortgage rate predictions 2024
Here’s where we’ll probably find more affordability in 2024: mortgage rates. Though they’re still relatively high, experts predict we’ll see mortgage rates go down in 2024. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is generally expected to end up near 6% by the end of the year.
Fannie Mae believes 30-year fixed rates could inch down to the mid-to-upper 6% range during the buying season — which typically lasts from spring through early fall — and reach 6.4% by the end of 2024
The MBA’s forecast is slightly less aggressive, predicting that mortgage rates could hover in the 6.3% to 6.6% range during the peak homebuying season before falling to 6.1% to close out 2024
NAR predicts rates will be in the mid-6% range for the homebuying season and drop to 6.1% in the last quarter of the year
Whether mortgage rates actually trend down in 2024, and by how much, depends in part on the path the Federal Reserve takes in its fight against inflation.
The Fed has indicated that it may start cutting the federal funds rate this year, which would remove a lot of upward pressure off of mortgage rates and allow them to fall more substantially. But inflation has remained a bit higher than expected in recent months, so we might have to wait longer for a Fed rate cut. This means mortgage rates might not fall in time for the peak homebuying season.
Will the housing market crash in 2024?
Because home prices have increased so dramatically in recent years, doomsayers believe that the housing market is in a bubble, and it’s only a matter of time before it bursts and the market crashes. But it’s actually pretty unlikely that will happen.
One of the main reasons we’re unlikely to see the housing market crash in 2024 has to do with housing inventory. The US simply does not have enough homes to meet demand, which is keeping prices steady.
Of course, no one has a crystal ball. If demand were to plummet, home prices could start falling. A severe recession could cause this to happen, for example. But even with a recession, it’s not a given that the housing market would crash as a result.
When will the housing market crash?
The fact is, it’s hard to predict a housing market crash. Right now, the conditions aren’t right for one — even though demand is low, supply remains even lower. And demand is expected to improve this year, while supply will likely remain a chronic problem for years to come.
What this means for 2024 homebuyers
If you’re hoping to buy a house this year, you’ll want to start planning now. This year is likely to be better for buyers than 2023 was in many ways, but it’s also going to be more challenging when it comes to prices and competition.
Lower mortgage rates will undoubtedly improve affordability for borrowers, but with that will come increased demand. This will keep home prices high and likely push them up even further. Finding a home in your price range may become even trickier, and you may need to make a lot of offers on homes before you get one accepted.
How to prepare to buy a house in 2024: 5 tips
Here’s what you should be doing now to prepare for homeownership in 2024.
1. Get your finances ready now
Because home prices are likely to remain high, you’ll want to take advantage of lower mortgage rates by making sure you get the lowest rate you can.
One of the faster methods to get your credit score up is to lower your credit utilization. This will also decrease your debt-to-income ratio, which is another factor mortgage lenders look at when considering what rate to give you.
J.R. Russell, head of direct to consumer mortgage lending at Citi Mortgages, says homebuyers should consider paying off credit card balances to improve their scores ahead of the 2024 homebuying season.
“If you’re trying to pay off or pay down some credit cards, start with the cards or credit lines with the highest interest rates first,” Russell says. “Then, pay off the balances that are smallest. The good news is that if you do this, you’ll improve your debt load and your credit score.”
2. Look for affordable mortgages and other first-time homebuyer assistance
The key to affording homeownership for many buyers in 2024 will be utilizing mortgages geared toward first-time homebuyers and combining them with grants or other forms of down payment assistance.
“If you’re not sure that your down payment will be sufficient, take time to understand all of the available products that you may be eligible for through the FHA or VA, your bank, or other local institutions,” Russell says. “These programs may grant you access to down payment assistance and low-to-moderate income programs, among other game-changing resources.”
Conventional loans allow down payments as low as 3%, while FHA loans allow 3.5% down payments. USDA and VA loans allow no down payment.
Look into lenders that offer special mortgage programs that come with additional assistance. Rocket Mortgage, for example, offers a ONE+ mortgage that allows borrowers to put down just 1%, with the lender providing a 2% grant.
Bank of America mortgages, another popular lender for first-time buyers, offers a couple of different forms of down payment assistance.
3. Time your purchase right
There probably won’t be a single “best time” to buy in 2024, because that depends on each buyer’s priorities — so it’s important that you figure out yours.
If getting the lowest rate possible is most important to you, you’ll want to wait until later this year to buy, possibly until the second half of 2024. But if you’re looking to avoid competition, buying within the next few months might be a better bet. Plus, you could always plan to refinance later on as rates drop.
4. But don’t rush
“If rates do start to moderate and the market does seem to become more favorable to buying in 2024, it will likely stay this way for a while,” Russell says. “If that’s the case, I encourage you to take your time! Don’t put pressure on yourself to make any potentially hasty decisions on what may be your biggest asset and the largest financial decision of your life.”
Though it’s still a while away, forecasts generally expect mortgage rates to continue falling in 2025. If you don’t feel ready to buy by the time the 2024 buying season rolls around, there’s nothing wrong with waiting a bit to continue saving and working on your credit.
5. Build your savings
Whether you’re padding your mortgage down payment savings or contributing to your emergency fund, tucking away some extra cash now is vital if you plan on buying a home soon.
When you buy a house, you’ll need enough cash to cover both your down payment and closing costs, which can amount to between 3% and 6% of the loan amount. While many mortgage programs allow low down payments, the more you can put down, the better your interest rate will likely be. Plus, offers with larger down payments are often more attractive to home sellers, giving you a competitive edge in what will likely be a tough market.
Homeownership is also often more expensive than many first-time buyers realize, especially in the first year. Having some extra money set aside for unexpected costs will help ensure you don’t go into debt when your first big housing expense comes along.
Housing market predictions 2024 FAQs
Experts expect mortgage rates to drop in 2024, and 30-year fixed rates could end the year closer to 6%.
There probably won’t be a housing recession in 2024 based on current expectations, as limited inventory is likely to push prices up further. Expect to see higher prices, lower mortgage rates, and more buyers in 2024.
In general, 2024 should be a better year to buy a house compared to 2023, but it will still be tough due to increased competition and higher prices.