When Will the Next Housing Market Crash Take Place?

I’ve noticed a trend lately. Everyone’s a real estate expert.

It seems the most recent crisis and recovery has turned just about every single person into a guru on all things to do with home buying and selling.

I suppose part of it has to do with the fact that the massive housing bubble that formed a decade ago swept the nation and was front page news.

It also directly affected millions of Americans, many who serially refinanced their mortgages, then found themselves underwater, then eventually short sold, were foreclosed upon, or held on for the ride back up to new heights.

It’s a common conversation piece these days to talk about your local housing market.

Thanks to greater access to information, folks are scouring Redfin and Zillow and coming up with theories about what that home should sell for, or what they should have listed it for.

Neighbors are getting upset when nearby listings are not to their liking for one reason or another. What were they thinking?!

A New Housing Bubble Mentality

  • Real estate is red-hot again thanks to limited supply and intense demand
  • It can feel like an ominous sign that we’re headed down a dark road again
  • But that alone isn’t reason enough for the housing market to crash again
  • There have to be clear catalysts and financial stress for another major downturn

All of this chatter portends some kind of new bubble mentality in my mind, though it seems everyone is just basing their hypotheses on the most recent housing bust, instead of perhaps considering a longer timeline.

One could look at the recent run-up in home prices as yet another bubble, less than a decade since home prices bottomed around 2012.

After all, many housing markets have now surged well beyond their previous lofty levels seen about 15 years ago when home prices peaked.

For example, Denver area home prices are about 86% higher than they were in 2006. And back then, everyone felt home prices were completely out of control.

In other words, home prices were haywire, and are now nearly double that.

Meanwhile, the typical U.S. home is currently valued around $273,000, per Zillow, which is about 27% higher than the peak of $215,000 seen in early 2007.

It’s also nearly 70% higher than the typical home price of $162,000 back in early 2012, when home prices more or less bottomed.

So if want to look at home prices alone, you could start to worry (though you also have to factor in inflation which will naturally raise prices over time).

But they say bubbles are financially driven, and we’ve yet to see a return to shoddy underwriting.

I will say that there’s been a recent return of near-zero down financing, with many lenders taking Fannie and Freddie’s 97% LTV program a step further by throwing a grant on top of it.

This means borrowers can buy homes today with just 1% down payment, and even that tiny contribution can be gifted from someone else.

So things might be getting a little murky, especially if you consider the increase in prices over the past four or five years.

One could also argue that affordability is being supported by artificially low mortgage rates, which history tells us won’t be around forever.

There’s also a general sense of greed in the air, along with a feeling amongst homeowners that they’re getting richer and richer by the day.

That type of attitude sometimes breeds complacency and unnecessary risk-taking.

But When Will Home Prices Crash Again?!

real estate cycle

  • If you believe in cycles, which seem to be pretty evident in real estate and elsewhere
  • We will see another housing crash at some point relatively soon
  • There appears to be an 18-year cycle that has been observed for the past 200 years
  • This means the next home price peak (and then bust) might begin in 2024

All of those recent home price gains might make one wonder when the next housing market crash will take place.

After all, home prices can only go up for so long before they drop again, right?

Well, the answer to that age-old question might not be as elusive as you think.

The real estate market apparently moves in cycles that some economists think can be predicted to a relatively high degree.

While not a perfect science, there seems to be “a steady 18-year rhythm” that has been observed since around the year 1800.

Yes, for over 200 years we’ve seen the real estate market follow a familiar boom and bust path, and there’s really no reason to think that will stop now.

It puts the next home price peak around the year 2024, followed by perhaps a recession in 2026 and a march down from there.

How much home prices will fall is an entirely different question, but given how much they’ve risen (and can rise still), it could be a long, long way down.

And we might not have super low mortgage rates at our disposal to save us this time, which is a scary thought.

You’ll Never Get Back Into the Housing Market…

  • There are four main phases in a real estate cycle
  • A recovery period and an expansion period
  • Followed by hypersupply and an eventual downturn
  • Don’t believe the hype that if you don’t buy today, you’ll never get the chance!

Another housing bust in inevitable, despite folks telling us we’ll never get back in again if we sell our home today, or don’t buy one tomorrow.

There are four phases to this predictable cycle, including a recovery phase, which we’ve clearly experienced, followed by an expansion phase, where new inventory is created to satisfy demand. This is happening now.

At the moment, home builders are ratcheting up supply to meet the intense demand in the market, with some 45 million expected to hit the average first-time home buyer age this decade.

The problem is like anything else in life, when demand is hot, producers have a tendency to overdo it, creating more supply than is necessary.

That brings us to the next phase, a hypersupply period where builders overshoot the mark and wind up with too much new construction, at which point prices plummet and a recession sets in.

The good news (for existing homeowners) is that according to this theory, we won’t see another home price peak until around 2024.

That means another three years of appreciation, give or take, or at least no major losses for the real estate market as a whole.

So even if you purchased a home recently and spent more than you would have liked, it could very well look cheap relative to prices a few years down the line.

The bad news is that the real estate market is destined to stall again in just three short years, meaning the upside is going to diminish quite a bit over the next few years.

This might be especially true in some markets that are already priced a little bit ahead of themselves, which may be running out of room to go much higher.

But perhaps more important is the fact that home prices tend to move higher and higher over time, even if they do experience temporary booms and busts.

So if you don’t attempt to time the market you can profit handsomely over the long term, assuming you can afford the underlying mortgage.

And remember, there’s more to homeownership than just the investment.

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

The First Thing to Do Before Buying a Car

According to Kelley Blue Book, the average price for a light vehicle in the United States was almost $38,000 in March 2020. Of course, the sticker price will depend on whether you want a small economy car, a luxury midsize sedan, an SUV or something in between. But the total you pay for a vehicle also depends on a number of other factors if you’re taking out a car loan.

Get the 4-1-1 on financing a car so you can make the best decision for your next vehicle purchase.

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Decide Whether to Finance a Car

Whether or not you should finance your next vehicle purchase is a personal decision. Most people finance because they don’t have an extra $20,000 to $50,000 they want to part with. But if you have the cash, paying for the car outright is the most economical way to purchase it.

For most people, deciding whether to finance a car comes down to a few considerations:

  • Do you need the vehicle enough to warrant making a monthly payment on it for several years?
  • Does the monthly payment work within your personal budget?
  • Is the deal, including the interest rate, appropriate?

Factors to Consider When Financing a Car

Obviously, the first thing to consider is whether you can afford the vehicle. But to understand that, you need to consider a few factors.

  • Total purchase price. Total purchase price is the biggest impact on how much you’ll pay for the car. It includes the price of the car plus any add-ons that you’re financing. Depending on the state and your own preferences, that might include extra options on the vehicle, taxes and other fees and warranty coverage.
  • Interest rate, or APR. The interest rate is typically the second biggest factor in how much you’ll pay overall for a car you finance. APR sounds complex, but the most important thing is that the higher it is, the more you pay over time. Consider a $30,000 car loan for five years with an interest rate of 6%—you pay a total of $34,799 for the vehicle. That same loan with a rate of 9% means you pay $37,365 for the car.
  • The terms. A loan term refers to the length of time you have to pay off the loan. The longer you extend terms, the less your monthly payment is. But the faster you pay off the loan, the less interest you pay overall. Edmunds notes that the current average for car loans is 72 months, or six years, but it recommends no more than five years for those who can make the payments work.

It’s important to consider the practical side of your vehicle purchase. If you take out a car loan for eight years, is your car going to still be in good working order by the time you get to the last few years? If you’re not careful, you could be making a large monthly payment while you’re also paying for car repairs on an older car.

Buying a Car with No Credit

You can buy a car anytime if you have the cash for the purchase. If you have no credit or bad credit, your options for financing a car might be limited. But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible to get a car loan without credit.

Many banks and lenders are willing to work with people with limited credit histories. Your interest rate will likely be higher than someone with excellent credit can command, though. And you might be limited on how much you can borrow, so you probably shouldn’t start looking at luxury SUVs. One tip for increasing your chances is to put as much cash down as you can when you buy the car.

If you can’t get a car loan on your own, you might consider a cosigner. There are pros and cons to asking someone else to sign on your loan, but it can get you into the credit game when the door is otherwise barred.

Personal Loans v. Car Loans: Which One Is Better?

Many people wonder if they should use a personal loan to buy a car or if there is really any difference between these types of financing. While technically a car loan is a loan you take out personally, it’s not the same thing as a personal loan.

Personal loans are usually unsecured loans offered over relatively short-term periods. The funds you get from a personal loan can typically be used for a variety of purposes and, in some cases, that might include buying a car. There are some great reasons to use a personal loan to buy a car:

  • If you’re buying a car from a private seller, a personal loan can hasten the process.
  • Traditional auto loans typically require full coverage insurance for the vehicle. A personal loan and liability insurance may be less expensive.
  • Lenders typically aren’t interested in financing cars that aren’t in driving shape, so if you’re buying a project car to work on in your garage during your downtime, a personal loan may be the better option.

But personal loans aren’t necessarily tied to the car like an auto loan is. That means the lender doesn’t necessarily have the ability to repossess the car if you stop paying the loan. Since that increases the risk for the lender, they may charge a higher interest rate on the loan than you’d find with a traditional auto loan. Personal loans typically have shorter terms and lower limits than auto loans as well, potentially making it more difficult for you to afford a car using a personal loan.

Steps You Should Follow When Financing a Car

Before you jump in and apply for that car loan, review these six steps you should take first.

1. Check your credit to understand whether you are likely to be approved for a loan. Your credit also plays a huge role in your interest rate. If your credit is too low and your interest rate would be prohibitively high, it might be better to wait until you can build or repair your credit before you get an auto loan. Sign up for ExtraCredit to see 28 of your FICO scores from all three credit bureaus.

2. Research auto loan options to find the ones that are right for you. Avoid applying too many times, as these hard inquiries can drag your credit score down with hard inquiries. The average auto loan interest rate is 27% on 60-month loans (as of April 13, 2020).

3. Get your trade-in appraised. The dealership might give you money toward your trade-in. That reduces the price of the car you purchase, which reduces how much you need to borrow. A few thousand dollars can mean a more affordable loan or even the difference between being approved or not.

4. Get prequalified for a loan online. While most dealers will help you apply for a loan, you’re in a better buying position if you walk into the dealership with funding ready to go. Plus, if you’re prequalified, you have a good idea what you can get approved for, so there are fewer surprises.

5. Buy from a trusted dealer. Unfortunately, there are dealerships and other sellers that prey on people who need a car badly. They may charge high interest or sell you a car that’s not worth the money you pay. No matter your financial situation, always try to work with a dealership that you can trust.

6. Talk to your car insurance company. Different cars will carry different car insurance premiums. Make a call to your insurance company prior to the sale to discuss potential rate changes so you’re not surprised by a higher premium after the fact.

Next to buying a home, buying a car is one of the biggest financial decisions you’ll make in your life, and you’ll likely do it more than once. Make sure you understand the ins and outs of financing a car before you start the process.

Source: credit.com

Is a 2% 30-Year Fixed Mortgage a Real Possibility?

Week after week, mortgage rates continue to shatter records, and dip to levels no one thought was possible.

It seems as if every month we have to revisit the conversation because what seemed like a bottom wasn’t.

In fact, not too long ago a 30-year fixed mortgage in the 3% range seemed absurd. Now it’s the norm, and everyone seems to want better.

This week, the hugely popular 30-year fixed averaged 3.53%, down from 3.56% last week, per Freddie Mac data. That’s a new all-time low.

And the 30-year fixed has been below 4% in every week but one so far in 2012. So to say it’s been a good year for mortgage rates would be a massive understatement.

By the way, the 15-year fixed also discovered new record territory at 2.83%, down from 2.86% last week.

[30-year fixed vs. 15-year fixed]

So this all begs the question, “Can the 30-year fixed fall below 3%?”

Is It Possible?

If you talk to most bankers, mortgage brokers, or anyone else who tracks the mortgage market, they’ll probably tell you to lock your mortgage rate and forget about it.

At the very least you’ll sleep soundly at night, right? After all, mortgage rates are already at record lows, so why get greedy?

But these same people would have made the same recommendation a year ago when mortgage rates were a percentage point higher.

Heck, I was one of the many that figured rates were bottoming, or very close to a bottom.

I’ve argued many times that the 30-year fixed probably wouldn’t go much lower than 3.5%, but I’ll probably be eating my hat now (if I owned one).

I’ll admit I was wrong, but now I’m focused on how low rates can actually go.

In case you didn’t know, mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury bond yield, which is currently around 1.50%.

And because the 30-year fixed is pricing around 3.50%, the spread is about 200 basis points.

[What mortgage rate can I expect?]

If the Yield Keeps Falling…

If the yield were to fall to around 1%, then the 30-year fixed could dip below 3%, and homeowners would finally be able to get their hands on a 2% 30-year fixed mortgage.

I don’t mean 2% literally, but something in the 2% range. So something around 2.75% or 2.875%, which would be nothing short of spectacular.

And if you think it’s impossible, note that a number of Wall Street bears see that yield falling to around 1% by the end of the year, thanks to the looming so-called “fiscal cliff.”

The fiscal cliff refers to the end of some major Bush-era tax breaks and spending cuts, which some argue could lead us in to recession again.

But it’s still very questionable – most believe things will be sorted out at the eleventh hour, with benefits possibly extended, as to not make a very fragile situation any more vulnerable.

However, with all that uncertainty, demand for “safe” bonds could push that yield lower and lower, meaning you may have to refinance again in the near future if you want a lower mortgage rate than your friends.

It’s not to say that you should cancel your refinance application today and wait for better, because as mentioned, we are in unprecedented times and you’ll certainly have a great rate either way.

But don’t be surprised if mortgage rates continue to trickle even lower, as insane as that may sound.

About the Author: Colin Robertson

Before creating this blog, Colin worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. He has been writing passionately about mortgages for 15 years.

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

How to Recession Proof Your Finances

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After years of uncertainty and constant shifts within the economy, it’s always best to prepare for what you have the ability to control. Instead of allowing the world’s happenings to control your finances; take these necessary steps to give you financial security and sanity.

Create a solid plan of attack to pay off credit cards

I know, this is an exercise you’ve done many times before. However, let’s go in laser-focused and eager! One of the best things you can do is reduce debt by any means necessary to prevent being overwhelmed in the future. Start by making a list of all creditors and be sure to jot down all interest rates. Depending on what’s most suitable, you can either build up your momentum and begin with the lowest amount owed or work on the revolving credit with the highest interest rate. While there is no one-way approach, make sure you truly commit to reducing debt as much as possible. Don’t be afraid to set reminders on your phone or post personal notes at home to remain focused. As you see your debt decrease, this will serve as a major boost to stay the course and keep going.

Re-evaluate your budget

We often believe there’s not much room in our budget when honestly, we haven’t taken the time to evaluate how much money we spend per month. Take the time to ask yourself those personal questions. Are there any subscriptions you don’t fully use or get your money’s worth? Are you spending too much on entertainment or eating out? How much produce goes to waste after every grocery trip? Revisit your entertainment or discretionary bucket for these items and transfer the remaining balance to your savings or toward reducing debt. Start where you are with what you have. If you have $50 extra after household expenses, draw a line in the sand there and build upon that.

This strategy isn’t only for those that may be classified as high earners. Budgets aren’t meant to be stoic and unenjoyable; they’re to provide us with necessary guardrails. Think about it like this – you’re driving up a mountain and there are no reflectors, no safeguard railings, and no signs to assist you in what is already a nerve-wracking experience. Your finances are no different. To reach the goals for you and your family, you have to. put parameters in place to help you see things to completion.

Side hustles are the name of the game

Long gone are the days that you’re able to solely rely on multi-billion-dollar corporations to ensure you’re living the quality of life you desire. Unexpected layoffs and workforce reduction are the name of the game and will never come with forewarning. When you think about what you can monetize; consider this: what is that one thing your friends coin you the go-to person for? What is always your responsibility when planning anything for your family or friends?

Any talent or skill that you have can easily be monetized. Leverage social media as an outlet to gauge the interest of others while ramping up your clientele. Remember, this is scalable and can ramp up as slow or fast as you’d like. Various online platforms allow you to create a profile advertising your services. Referrals, word of mouth, and various social media channels will add some extra funds to the places you need it most. Don’t forget to have fun with this and make changes as you see fit! When frustrating moments occur, take a step back and remind yourself of the overarching goal – to create a financially established environment for you and your family, regardless of what happens in the economy.

Boost your emergency fund

For every dollar that fails to be assigned in your budget, your spending habits will indeed do the assigning for you. Please be very intentional with designating a set amount every pay period to beef up your emergency fund. No amount is too small; even if it’s just $20 each pay period – you have to make it a priority and start somewhere. The amount can be increased and adjusted over time as your comfort level increases.

Any windfalls such as bonuses, monetary gifts, income from side hustles, and remaining funds after household expenses are covered can be thrown toward your emergency fund. If you’ve personally reached your goal, it’s okay to establish another! There’s never enough money in the reserves. Having your peace of mind when a family member gets sick, unexpected job loss, or any emergency arises makes all of the short-term sacrifices worth it.

Check your investment portfolio

If it’s been a while, look at your investments, ensure you’re still comfortable with what’s available and make any necessary tweaks. Do you need to make adjustments to match your current level of comfort? Were you more open and willing to risk tolerance in the past and now want to adjust? Ask yourself these very vital questions and be honest.

Avoid incurring any new debt

It’s one thing to pay off debt and a completely different animal to avoid racking up any new debt. If at all possible, avoid opening new lines of credit. You don’t want your hard work to be in vain. Keep this in mind – you’re doing some important work to guarantee that no matter what happens in the economy your finances won’t suffer. If a major purchase like a car or a home is in the near future, you can create an account that’s dedicated specifically to that. Consider saving more over time to decrease monthly living expenses. Haste can get the best of us, but it doesn’t have to. Emotional or impulsive purchases typically don’t align with any financial goal – so make sure you exhibit enough self-control to stay focused on the goals ahead.

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Source: mint.intuit.com