Frankly, however, the biggest surprise at the moment might be that sales volumes have held up pretty well over the past few weeks even as mortgage rates have climbed into the mid-7s. We’ve been talking about sales growth over the past year. More home sales are happening, but we can also see — once adjusted for seasonal patterns — that sales should be much higher now if a real market recovery were underway.
It feels like the latest macro trends will keep mortgage rates in the mid-7% range for the near term. And we’d expect that to slow home sales further. That’s why Altos Research tracks every home for sale in the country each week. The data so often defies expectations or changes very quickly. Let’s dig further into the details of the U.S. housing market for the week of April 22.
Housing inventory
When we look at the active inventory of unsold homes on the market, we can definitely see the impact of higher mortgage rates in the past month. There are 543,000 single-family homes on the market now. That’s a 3% jump from last week and 31% above year-ago levels.
The available inventory of unsold homes on the market is building quickly due to the most recent mortgage rate jumps. There are 130,000 more homes on the market now than last year at this time.
Normally, inventory is climbing at this point in the second quarter. We’re rapidly approaching the peak of the market in terms of seller listings, and as inventory builds, the sales rate will peak by the end of June. So, it’s normal that inventory is growing now.
But when you add a spike in mortgage rates that makes homebuying less affordable, that leads to fewer buyers and inventory grows. Altos data currently shows an inflection point in April. With the most recent mortgage rate jump, inventory growth has also accelerated.
This is what is meant when we say that higher rates leads to higher inventory. We are on the path back to the formerly normal levels of unsold homes on the market. A couple more years with elevated rates will get us there.
But it’s also noteworthy to point out that falling rates reverse this trend. Lower rates mean that people snap up the existing inventory.
New listings
Growing inventory is not just about slowing demand. We are also consistently measuring more sellers coming back into the market. At 69,000 new listings unsold today, that’s 3% more than a week ago and 14% more than this time last year.
In fact, there are more new sellers this week than in any week of 2023. This selling season still has two more months of growth potential. Industry professionals would love to see 70,000 or 80,000 new listings per week in May. More sellers means more sales can happen. There’s a limit, of course, as we could eventually reach an imbalance if too many sellers flood the market and too few buyers follow suit. But we’re not close to that yet.
In the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, the latter half of April would normally see 80,000 to 100,000 new listings in a week. Now we’re at 69,000. Obviously, elevated mortgage rates slows both buyer and seller activity. There are a lot of people who will never sell their house with a 3% mortgage.
There’s unlikely to be a flood of sellers in the next few years, but we can see steady growth. Each year with higher rates will create more inventory growth and have fewer people locked into low rates. That growth is good for the market.
The available inventory of homes to buy and the new ones being listed for sale each week are what consumers care about. If I’m buying a house, do I have any houses to buy? For homebuyers, the selection they have now is the most they’ve had in years.
Real estate professionals, on the other hand, have to care about transaction volume. How many home sales are happening? Because there were so few sellers last year, the number of sales was quite constricted. That’s starting to change. The 14% increase in new listings over the past year is a really good sign that sales can grow.
Pending sales
When we look at the sales rate, we can indeed see that home sales are growing. There were 71,000 new contracts started for single-family homes this week. That’s 3% more than last week and 7% more than a year ago.
There are still 8% fewer sales happening each week than in 2022. At that time two years ago, there were frantic last-minute deals getting done as mortgage rates were rising quickly. So, even though rates were up back then, sales were still strong.
But the hectic pandemic-era pace of sales had slowed, so inventory was building quickly. In 2022, the new sales rates really cratered after the Fourth of July holiday.
There are now 385,000 single-family homes under contract. That’s 5% growth compared to this time last year but is still 14% less than two years ago. New sales started this week saw 7% growth while the total number of homes under contract saw 5% growth.
It takes 30 to 40 days for the typical sale to close. The homes under contract now will mostly close in April and May. The 5% annualized growth rate is less than we’d hoped for at the start of the year, but it’s creeping up even with higher mortgage rates.
Altos Research uses direct measurement rather than seasonally adjusting its numbers. There are 385,000 single-family homes in escrow to complete a sale as of today. If you were to approximate a seasonal adjustment on this number, you would see a yearly sales pace of about 4.4 million units for April 2024. That pace is up from April 2023, but it is still running slower than the typical April. The seasonal pace is where one can observe the slowdown due higher mortgage rates.
The takeaway from the weekly new pending sales data is that even though sales continue to outpace last year, that growth has definitely slowed.
Home prices
The median price of single-family homes under contract is now $398,000. That jumped by 2.4% jump this week and is, in fact, a new all-time-high, surpassing the sale prices of two years ago.
These spring weeks are indeed the time when home prices climb, so it’s not too surprising that this trend is occurring now. But we’ve also been keeping a close eye on home prices in the face of these rising mortgage rates.
The prices of the homes going under contract are 6% more expensive than one year ago. Last year at this time, home prices were lower than in April 2022. But we’re now back at all-time highs. The previous peak was $395,000 two years ago.
One thing of interest in the price data is how slow this climb has been. Compared to Jan. 1, 2024, prices are up 6.6%. In most years, the increase is closer to 10% by this time in April. So, as a leading indicator for how the year ends up, this price signal is much softer than usual.
We can also see this in asking prices. The median price for all homes currently on the market is $449,000. That’s up a fraction from last week and only 1% above last year at this time.
Asking prices can be thought of as a leading indicator for future sales prices. Homes that are on the market now will get offers in May, close in June and will be reported on in July. So, the future signals for home prices aren’t falling because of higher mortgage rates, but it certainly looks like price appreciation has slowed.
Price reductions
Another strong leading indicator for future home sale prices is the share of homes on the market with price reductions. If more sellers have to cut their prices now, that’s a real signal for sales that will happen in the future.
Surprisingly, given the mortgage rate changes, there is no jump yet in the share of price reductions. We’ve been watching this stat closely.
This week, 32% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s actually down a fraction from last week, given a relatively strong set of new listings that hit the market and the fact that home sales are at their highest point of the year. Fresh inventory doesn’t take a price cut until after it sits for a while without an offer.
There are 3% more homes with price reductions today than a year ago. Last year at this time, price cuts were still decreasing with very tight volumes of new listings. There are more homes on the market now with price cuts than in any April on record. That shows weakness in prices, but it’s not a super high number and it’s not skyrocketing, so that implies we won’t see prices tanking anytime soon.
The takeaway here is that with the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.4%, there is still just enough sales volume to keep home prices from dropping like they did in late 2022. The current market is not changing nearly that quickly. We’ll continue to watch data on price cuts. As mortgage rates make homes less affordable, fewer offers will be made and some sellers will cut their prices. That could accelerate in the next few weeks.
Diversifying your assets is one of the best ways to create a sustainable, long-term investment strategy. And one of the ways you can do this is by buying gold.
Investing in gold and other precious metals is a great way to protect yourself against inflation. It also allows you to put your money in an asset that will likely continue to retain its value.
Despite the numerous benefits of investing in gold, many individuals remain uncertain about its viability as an investment and the process for getting started. In this article, we will outline a comprehensive guide on how to buy gold in 2024.
Why should I consider investing in gold?
With growing concerns of an impending recession, investing in gold has become increasingly relevant. This precious metal boasts a multitude of advantageous features that make it a valuable asset to any well-rounded investment portfolio. Here are four reasons why investing in gold is a wise choice:
Gold protects you from inflation: If you’re investing in the stock market, there’s a lot that’s outside your control. But gold is an asset you’ll always have some level of control over, regardless of what happens on Wall Street.
It retains its value: Because gold is much harder to obtain, it retains its value much longer. And you never have to worry about it decaying or losing its structure.
Gold is a high-demand product: There are many ways to use gold, and it tends to be a product that’s in high demand. This is especially true when economic conditions are tight.
Gold is an insurance policy: While some people purchase gold because they’re hoping to make a profit. Others like the security of owning gold and keep it as insurance in case of an economic downturn. Either strategy is an equally valid reason for gold investments.
How do I start investing in gold?
So now that you understand why gold is a good investment, it’s essential to know how to buy and sell gold, so you can get started. Listed below are five steps to make sure you get started on the right path.
Step 1: Decide What Type of Gold You Want to Buy
Start by deciding what kind of gold you would like to purchase. Each product will require a slightly different purchasing strategy, so you need to be clear on this right from the start.
Here are the main types of gold most people choose to invest in:
Gold bullion: When people think of owning physical gold, gold bullion is what usually comes to mind. It is a form of pure gold certified for weight and purity, typically in the form of bars.
Gold coins: A popular option for investors, gold bullion coins are easy to store due to their small size. They can be bought at a premium price and are readily available from reputable dealers.
Gold ETFs: For those not interested in directly owning gold, gold-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer a convenient and cost-effective alternative. These shares can be bought and sold like stocks and are backed by a portfolio of gold-based securities.
Gold mutual funds: These mutual funds invest in companies involved in gold production, mining, and exploration. They may also invest in gold bullion, certificates, and derivatives.
Gold futures contracts: Gold futures are a type of futures contract allowing investors to buy or sell a specified amount of gold at a predetermined price and date in the future. They are best for experienced investors.
Gold jewelry: Accounting for 49% of global gold production, jewelry is a common form of gold ownership. However, it may not be the most profitable strategy, as retail jewelry prices come with substantial markups. Estate sales and auctions may offer better deals but require more time.
Gold mining stocks: With gold mining stocks, investors own a share in a gold mining company instead of the actual gold. These companies are large, global enterprises involved in the extraction and processing of gold ore. Investing in gold mining stocks is another way to profit from rising gold prices.
Gold IRAs: Similar to traditional retirement accounts, gold IRAs are backed by gold and other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium. They offer a unique investment opportunity for those looking to diversify their retirement portfolio. Here’s a list of the best gold IRA companies of 2024.
Step 2: Learn How Gold Prices Work
Before investing in gold, it’s essential to understand how gold prices work. The gold spot price, which reflects the cost of one ounce of gold, can fluctuate considerably based on market demand.
To ensure that you make wise investment decisions, research the market and stay up to date with its trends. In doing so, you’ll be poised to make the most of the opportunities presented by decreases in gold prices.
Step 3: Find a Trusted Seller
When investing in gold, you need to choose a trustworthy dealer. While purchasing gold online is convenient, be sure to exercise caution to avoid falling victim to scams.
To ensure that you purchase gold bullion or coins from a reputable source, consider consulting the U.S. Mint for a list of gold dealers in your area.
Once you have identified a potential dealer, make sure you evaluate their credibility. Gather information about their reputation through customer reviews and the Better Business Bureau.
It’s also a good idea to research the dealer’s buyback policies. Obtain a written copy of these policies and keep them in a safe place for future reference.
Step 4: Buy Physical Gold that You Can Sell
If you buy gold that is in demand, it will be easier when selling it at a later time. Stick to the most familiar gold coins and gold bars.
Gold Coins
The following are the most popular gold coins:
American Gold Eagle
Austrian Philharmonic
British Britannia
Canadian Maple Leaf
South African Krugerrand
Gold Bars
The most popular gold bullion bars include:
Credit Suisse
Perth Mint
Valcambi
Englehard
Johnson Matthey
PAMP Suisse
Step 5: Decide How You’ll Store the Gold
Finally, make sure you have a plan in place for storing your physical gold. Sticking several gold bars under your bed probably isn’t the wisest strategy. This puts you at greater risk of having your investment stolen.
Your best bet to store physical gold bars and coins is likely to purchase a safe for your home. You can also use a safe deposit box at a bank or rent a secure storage facility.
Conclusion
Investing in gold can be a rewarding journey, but only if you approach it with caution and foresight. First, decide the type of gold that aligns with your investment objectives, whether it be coins or bars, and make sure to source from a reputable dealer.
Additionally, consider the practical aspects of your investment strategy. For instance, if you opt for gold bars, consider the storage and security of your precious metal, and how you plan to sell it in the future. Gold bars can’t be easily divided, so take that into account.
Furthermore, you’ll need to factor in the rate of return on your gold investment. Ensure that the gold you purchase will not only keep pace with, but also surpass inflation, or you may end up with a loss in the long run.
And finally, avoid the common mistake of putting all your eggs in one basket, especially when it comes to gold investment. While gold and precious metals can be a lucrative component of your investment portfolio, they should never make up your entire investment strategy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is gold a good investment?
Gold is a unique asset that doesn’t provide regular income in the form of cash flow, unlike other investments. However, owning gold can still have many advantages for your overall investment portfolio.
By including gold in your asset mix, you can diversify your investments and reduce your overall risk exposure. This is particularly important during times of economic uncertainty, such as a recession.
When other investments may perform poorly, gold has historically held its value, helping to protect and stabilize your wealth. This characteristic of gold makes it a useful tool for managing risk and preserving your wealth over the long term.
What is the best way to buy gold?
Acquiring gold can be a smart investment choice, but it’s essential to choose the right seller. Reputable sources include banks, investment firms, and online gold retailers.
To ensure you make a wise decision, do your due diligence and find a dealer with a good reputation, competitive pricing, and dependable customer support.
Furthermore, being aware of the current spot price of gold and market trends is crucial to making an informed purchase. Ultimately, the best form of gold to buy is the one that aligns with your investment objectives and needs.
How much gold should I buy?
Experts generally suggest investing 5% to 10% of your portfolio in gold. During economic downturns and periods of high inflation, some recommend allocating a larger portion.
The ultimate decision on how much to invest in gold should be based on personal financial objectives, comfort with risk, and available funds. As a diversification tool and a hedge against market instability, gold is a consideration worth making.
How much does gold cost per ounce?
Gold can experience significant price swings due to a multitude of factors. These include the ebb and flow of supply and demand, the fluctuation of currency exchange rates, and the instability of political climates.
The value of gold is expressed in U.S. Dollars and is most commonly reported in troy ounces, a unit equivalent to 31.1 grams. As of this writing, gold is priced at around $1875.00 per ounce.
What is the safest way to store gold?
For the ultimate protection of your gold investments, consider utilizing a secure depository, a bank safe deposit box, or an at-home safe.
Depositories provide comprehensive security and insurance coverage. They are an excellent option for safeguarding valuable assets.
Safe deposit boxes, located within banks, offer added protection with key-controlled access. An at-home safe, properly installed and maintained, can also provide a secure storage solution.
Editorial Note: Blueprint may earn a commission from affiliate partner links featured here on our site. This commission does not influence our editors’ opinions or evaluations. Please view our full advertiser disclosure policy.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.68%, and on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, it’s 6.94%. The average rate on a 30-year jumbo mortgage is 7.65%.
*Data accurate as of April 19, 2024, the latest data available.
30-year fixed mortgage rates
The average mortgage rate for 30-year fixed loans rose today to 7.68% from 7.59% last week, according to data from Curinos. This is up from last month’s 7.40% and up from a year ago when it was 5.92%.
At the current 30-year fixed rate, you’ll pay about $710 each month for every $100,000 you borrow — up from about $704 last week.
Ready to buy? Compare the best mortgage lenders.
15-year fixed mortgage rates
The mortgage rates for 15-year fixed loans inched up today to 6.94% from 6.82% last week. Today’s rate is up from last month’s 6.64% and up from a year ago when it was 5.33%.
At the current 15-year fixed rate, you’ll pay about $894 each month for every $100,000 you borrow, up from about $887 last week.
30-year jumbo mortgage rates
The mortgage rates for 30-year jumbo loans rose today to 7.65% from 7.32% last week. This is up from last month’s 7.24% and up from 5.77% last year.
At the current 30-year jumbo rate, you’ll pay around $707 each month for every $100,000 you borrow, up from about $703 last week.
Methodology
To determine average mortgage rates, Curinos uses a standardized set of parameters. For conventional mortgages, the calculations are based on an owner-occupied, one-unit property with a loan amount of $350,000. For jumbo mortgages, the loan amount is $766,550. These calculations assume an 80% loan-to-value ratio, a credit score of 740 or higher and a 60-day lock period.
Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
On May 3, 2023, the Federal Reserve announced a third interest rate hike for the year — this time by 25 basis points. While the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, this increase in the federal funds rate could lead individual lenders to raise their home loan rates, too.
If you already have a mortgage, how this could affect your monthly payment will depend on if your loan has a fixed or adjustable rate. A fixed rate stays the same over the life of the loan, meaning your payments will never change. An adjustable rate, however, can fluctuate according to market conditions — which means you could see a rise in your monthly payments.
For example, if you take out an ARM for $250,000 with an interest rate of 5.5%, your initial monthly payments would be $1,719. But after the initial period is over, and the ARM switches to a variable rate, your payments could increase if the rate rises. If the rate rose just 25 basis points (5.75%), for instance, your payments would increase to $1,750.
If you’re not planning on keeping a home for a long time, an ARM could be the better option — especially if fixed-rate loans have much higher rates at the time. This is because ARMs tend to have lower rates to start than fixed-rate mortgages, though your rate can increase over time.
While a fixed-rate loan will have the same rate throughout the entire term, an ARM will start with a fixed rate for a set amount of time and then switch to a variable rate that can change for the remainder of your loan term. For example, a 5/1 ARM will have a fixed rate for five years (the “5” in 5/1), then switch to a variable rate that can change once a year (the “1” in 5/1).
Whether a mortgage rate buydown is the right choice for you will depend on your individual circumstances and financial goals. If you plan to stay in the home for a long period of time and can afford to pay for the buydown, it could make sense. But if you know you’ll move or refinance your mortgage before you break even on the cost of the buydown versus the lower monthly payments, then buying down your rate might not be worth it.
Buying down your rate can be permanent or temporary, which will impact the overall cost. A permanent buydown is also known as purchasing mortgage discount points — for each point, you’ll typically pay 1% of the loan amount in return for 0.25% off your rate.
Temporary buydowns, on the other hand, will reduce your interest rate to a certain point, and it will then increase each year until you hit the original rate. Some common temporary options are 2-1 and 1-0 terms, with the first number being how much your rate is reduced in the first year and the second number being the reduction for the following year. Unlike discount points that are paid for by the buyer, this type of buydown can be paid for by the lender, seller or homebuilder.
Blueprint is an independent publisher and comparison service, not an investment advisor. The information provided is for educational purposes only and we encourage you to seek personalized advice from qualified professionals regarding specific financial decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Blueprint has an advertiser disclosure policy. The opinions, analyses, reviews or recommendations expressed in this article are those of the Blueprint editorial staff alone. Blueprint adheres to strict editorial integrity standards. The information is accurate as of the publish date, but always check the provider’s website for the most current information.
Jamie Young is Lead Editor of loans and mortgages at USA TODAY Blueprint. She has been writing and editing professionally for 12 years. Previously, she worked for Forbes Advisor, Credible, LendingTree, Student Loan Hero, and GOBankingRates. Her work has also appeared on some of the best-known media outlets including Yahoo, Fox Business, Time, CBS News, AOL, MSN, and more. Jamie is passionate about finance, technology, and the Oxford comma. In her free time, she likes to game, play with her two crazy cats (Detective Snoop and his girl Friday), and try to keep up with her ever-growing plant collection.
Megan Horner is editorial director at USA TODAY Blueprint. She has over 10 years of experience in online publishing, mostly focused on credit cards and banking. Previously, she was the head of publishing at Finder.com where she led the team to publish personal finance content on credit cards, banking, loans, mortgages and more. Prior to that, she was an editor at Credit Karma. Megan has been featured in CreditCards.com, American Banker, Lifehacker and news broadcasts across the country. She has a bachelor’s degree in English and editing.
Ashley is a USA TODAY Blueprint loans and mortgages deputy editor who has worked in the online finance space since 2017. She’s passionate about creating helpful content that makes complicated financial topics easy to understand. She has previously worked at Forbes Advisor, Credible, LendingTree and Student Loan Hero. Her work has appeared on Fox Business and Yahoo. Ashley is also an artist and massive horror fan who had her short story “The Box” produced by the award-winning NoSleep Podcast. In her free time, she likes to draw, play video games, and hang out with her black cats, Salem and Binx.
Buying your first home can be tedious and overwhelming.
While it’s exciting to visit properties and daydream about your dream home, getting over the financing hurdles is another story. But don’t fret.
This comprehensive guide for first-time homebuyers will walk you through the entire process from start to finish.
Benefits of Being a First-Time Homebuyer
As a first-time homebuyer, you may feel a mix of excitement and apprehension. While the home buying process can seem overwhelming, it’s important to recognize the numerous benefits that come with this milestone.
Financial Assistance
First-time homebuyers have access to several financial assistance programs that can make homeownership more affordable. These include down payment assistance programs, low-interest mortgage loans, and grants specifically designed for first-time buyers. Some of these programs are offered by state and local governments, while others are provided by non-profit organizations or private lenders.
Lower Down Payments
Several loan programs offer lower down payment requirements for first-time homebuyers. The FHA loan, for example, requires as little as 3.5% down if your credit score is 580 or higher. The USDA and VA loans even offer zero down payment options in some cases.
Access to Educational Resources
There’s a lot to learn when you’re buying a home for the first time, but fortunately, there are plenty of resources available. Many organizations offer homebuyer education courses that can help you understand the process and make informed decisions. Some lenders and assistance programs require you to take one of these courses, but even if it’s not mandatory, it can still be a valuable resource.
Before Starting Your Home Search
Check Your Credit
Not only will your credit score play a considerable factor in whether you’re approved for a mortgage, but it will also determine your interest rate.
A small increase or decrease in interest rates may not seem like a big deal. However, mortgage loans are for a hefty sum and for an extended period of time. So, a slight increase or decrease equates to thousands of dollars more spent or saved over the life of the loan.
To have the best chance of being approved for a home loan, you should aim for a credit score of at least 620. It’s possible to get approved for select home loan programs with a score as low as 580, but you may have fewer lenders to choose from.
Run the Numbers
It’s tempting for first-time homebuyers to start searching for homes when they know their credit score is up to par. But that’s probably not a good move until you determine how much home you can afford. Yes, the loan officer will give you a figure when you obtain a preapproval, but that amount isn’t always indicative of what you can afford.
Why so? Well, they focus on the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio to get an idea of a loan amount you qualify for. According to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, lenders prefer a DTI ratio of 43% or lower with your new mortgage payment. To illustrate:
CURRENT MONTHLY DEBT
GROSS INCOME
DEBT-TO-INCOME RATIO
MAXIMUM MORTGAGE PAYMENT (USING 43% RECOMMENDATION)
$1,000
$4,000
25%
$720
$2,000
$6,000
33%
$580
$3,000
$10,000
30%
$1,300
Note: Debt-to-Income Ratio = Aggregate Amount of Monthly Debt / Gross Income
The problem is that it fails to consider any expenses unrelated to debt. And if you have hefty insurance, childcare, or even grocery bills, that could be a major concern.
So, your best bet is to look at your current budget and come up with a realistic figure for your new mortgage payment. But don’t forget to keep the recommended DTI ratio in mind.
Explore Mortgage Options
There are several mortgage options on the market for first-time homebuyers, but the most prevalent are:
Conventional Loans
A conventional mortgage is a type of home loan that is not insured or guaranteed by the government. It’s typically offered by a private lender, such as a bank or credit union, and is the most common type of mortgage used to purchase a home.
Conventional mortgages typically require a down payment of at least 3% of the purchase price of the home. Borrowers typically must have a credit score of 620 or higher and a DTI ratio of 36% or lower to qualify. If you have bad credit or are unable to make a large down payment may have a harder time qualifying for a conventional mortgage.
If the loan amount is over $726,200, it becomes a jumbo loan and requires a higher down payment.
FHA Loans
An FHA loan is a type of home loan insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), a government agency within the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
FHA loans are designed to make it easier for people to buy homes, especially for first-time homebuyers. They offer lower down payment requirements and more flexible credit guidelines than conventional mortgages.
The minimum credit score required for an FHA loan is 500. If your credit score is between 500 -579, the down payment is 10%. However, if you have a credit score of 580 or above, the down payment is 3.5% of the purchase price.
VA Loans
VA Loans are insured by the Department of Veterans Affairs. They don’t require a down payment and are easier to qualify for than conventional loan products. However, you must be an active-duty member of the armed forces. Surviving spouses also qualify.
USDA Loans
A USDA loan is a type of mortgage offered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to low- and moderate-income borrowers who are looking to buy a home in a rural or suburban area.
See also: 14 First-Time Home Buyer Grants and Programs
Check Out Our Top Picks for 2024:
Best Mortgage Lenders
Most mortgages have a 30 or 15-year term. The latter will cost you more per month, but you’ll save a load of cash on interest.
You can also choose from a fixed or adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). Fixed-rate mortgages have the same interest rate for the duration of the loan. But ARMs typically start with a lower interest rate for a set amount of time. In fact, they usually span from five to ten years and then adjust depending on the housing market.
Some first-time homebuyers choose ARMs over fixed-rate mortgages because it gives them the option to make a smaller monthly payment in the first few years. It could also mean that you can qualify for a more expensive home. But, be careful not to get too overextended, as erratic market behavior could cause the rate to skyrocket.
Get Preapproved
This is one of the more time-consuming parts of the entire mortgage process for a first-time home buyer. The good news is you don’t have to settle for the first offer that comes your way out of fear that your credit score will take a hit.
“FICO Scores ignore [mortgage] inquiries made in the 30 days prior to scoring,” according to myFICO. So, you won’t be penalized for multiple inquiries.
So, start by researching mortgage lenders that you may be interested in working with. You could also solicit the help of a mortgage broker if you’re strapped for time or want someone to do the legwork for you.
Once you’ve settled on a few lenders, be prepared to provide the following to get preapproved:
Financial statements to confirm your assets, including retirement accounts and real estate
Recent bank statements
Last two pay stubs
W-2s from the last two years
They will also pull your credit report and credit scores. If you qualify, the mortgage lender will then provide you with a preapproval letter, valid for a certain time period, that specifies how much you’re eligible for.
Save Up for a Down Payment and Closing Costs
During the preapproval process, the lender should have discussed loan options that could be a good fit for you. They should also have communicated how much you will need for a down payment and closing costs.
While some sellers may be willing to cover closing costs, be prepared to provide earnest money to secure your offer. And you may need a large down payment if you’re taking out a jumbo loan, or don’t qualify for the FHA or VA loan program. If that’s the case, now’s the time to figure out a plan for it.
If the seller is not paying closing costs, expect to pay between 2% and 5% of the sales price. And if a hefty down payment isn’t required, it’s not a bad idea to bring money to the table. Doing so allows you to reduce the Loan-to-Value, which positions you as less risky to the lender.
You may also be able to avoid private mortgage insurance (PMI), which is required until you reach 20% in equity, and possibly qualify for a reduced interest rate.
How to Find the Perfect Home
Go Home Shopping
All squared away with a preapproval and planned to save up the cash you need? Now, it’s time to go home shopping. But before you go, you have to decide if you want to enlist the assistance of a real estate agent.
It’s possible to find a slew of listings within your price range on the web with minimal effort. However, real estate agents have access to a system that could expand your reach. Even better, they could be integral in helping you choose a home that’s a good buy and negotiating the final purchase price.
And the seller’s agent pays their commission, so no need to worry about forking over extra cash. Just be sure to hire a real estate professional that is seasoned and reputable.
Now for the fun part: home shopping. Be careful not to judge a home solely by its appearance. Some other important factors to keep in mind:
Taxes: are the property taxes affordable or beyond what you can comfortably afford? (You can roll property taxes and homeowners insurance into an escrow account, but they can easily make or break your budget if the figures are steep).
Location: is the home in an area that has historically held its value? Is the location optimal for your commute to and from work?
Crime: is it a high crime area or is it relatively safe?
Condition: how old is the property? Does it need tons of repairs, or is it close to being move in ready?
Floor plan: is the floor plan feasible or ideal for your situation? Would it be appealing to other buyers if you had to sell?
School district: how are the schools? Have they received a good rating, or do they struggle to stay afloat?
All of these factors can have an effect on the value of the property over time.
Submit an Offer
You’ve found the perfect home, and you’re ready to sign on the dotted. Before you can finalize the paperwork and move in, there’s one more important step. And that’s making the offer. Even if the sales price seems fair, you may need to make an offer that’s higher or lower to snag the home.
Why so? Well, there could be a slight or drastic bidding war going on, and the only way for you to win is to beat out the competition. Or maybe your real estate agent did some research and determined the asking price was a bit high based on similar properties in the area or the home’s current condition.
Either way, you want to submit an offer that stands out and gets accepted. Your real estate agent will be able to do so on your behalf. But if you don’t have a real estate agent, check out these letters from Trulia to get you started.
The Mortgage Process
Even after your offer is accepted, there’s still more work to do. You’re not done just yet! It’s time to move on to the mortgage process.
Remember that preapproval letter? The lender will make sure all the information you initially provided is accurate through a process called underwriting.
Depending on how long it’s been since you were preapproved, you may be asked to provide updated bank statements or pay stubs.
The faster you submit the requested information, the quicker you’ll get a response. So, don’t drag your feet if you want a closing date that’s sooner than later.
Home Inspections and Appraisals
Before you close on the home, you will need to have a home inspection and appraisal complete.
The home inspection shouldn’t cost you more than $500. It will give you an overall assessment of the property and identify any potential issues.
The appraisal also plays an integral role as it will give you a solid idea of the home’s fair market value. The lender will mandate it, but it’s not a bad idea to get an independent appraisal done to serve as a second opinion.
An inspection and appraisal may help you decide if you should lower your offer or walk away from the property.
Purchase Homeowners Insurance
Your mortgage lender will require that you take out homeowners insurance. So, you want to start shopping around for quotes and select a policy prior to closing.
Close on Your Loan
At last! You’ve reached the finish line, and it’s time to close on your loan. During the closing, expect to:
Sign a load of paperwork.
Provide any amounts owed for the down payment.
Pay closing costs, which could include property tax obligations, premiums for homeowner’s insurance and association dues, title insurance, and any other costs associated with finalizing the loan.
Pay discount points or prepaid interest that can reduce the interest rate.
But before you show up at closing, it’s a good idea to speak with the lender, so you’ll know what to expect. You can also request a copy of the final closing document, or Closing Disclosure, to see a detailed breakdown of expenses.
A Few More Tips
Here are a few more suggestions for first time home buyers to help you get approved for your first loan:
Refrain from applying for new credit before you close. This could throw off your DTI ratio, lower your credit score, and ultimately prevent you from closing on the loan.
State and local programs may be available to assist with down payments. If you’re low on funds, be sure to explore options that may be available to you.
Several builders offer buyer incentives, like allowances for upgrades and closing costs. So if you haven’t considered new construction, it may not be such a bad idea to take a look if the price points are within your budget.
Should You Rent, Instead?
Perhaps you’ve done a little legwork, ran the numbers, and are on the fence about home buying. You will typically find that it’s cheaper to make monthly mortgage payments than to pay rent.
You can also take advantage of tax deductions and build up equity as you’re making monthly payments. The equity can be borrowed against for a loan or put some extra money in your pocket should you decide to sell before the repayment period ends.
However, renting a home gives you the flexibility to move to a new location if the home isn’t quite what you expected, don’t like the neighborhood, or want something more affordable.
Furthermore, renting allows you to pass the costs of maintaining the home on to the owner. But as a homeowner, you’ll be responsible for costs associated with maintenance and repairs.
Another reason why some choose to rent over buying is the upfront costs. Most landlords require a security deposit. However, it could be substantially lower than the money you may have to bring to the table for the down payment and closing costs.
Ultimately, you have to decide which is the better fit: investing in an asset that could build wealth or continuing to pay rent until you feel the time is right. There is no right or wrong answer; it just depends on your personal preference and financial situation.
Bottom Line
By taking the time to learn about the home buying process, you’ll be well-prepared and save yourself time and headaches. Best of all, you’ll increase your chances of landing your dream home with the most competitive mortgage product on the market.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the process for buying a home?
The process for buying a home typically involves the following steps:
Determine your budget and get preapproved for a mortgage.
Find a real estate agent and start looking for homes.
Make an offer on a home and negotiate the terms.
Get a home inspection and address any issues that are found.
Get a mortgage and close on the home.
How much house can I afford?
When determining how much house you can afford, there are several factors to take into account. You should consider your income, expenses, down payment, credit score, and mortgage type before making a decision.
A larger down payment can help you get a lower mortgage rate, and a higher credit score can qualify you for better rates and loan terms. Shopping around for mortgage rates and considering different types of mortgages, such as fixed-rate or adjustable-rate, can also help you find the best deal.
Keep in mind that owning a home involves more than just the monthly payments. You will also need to factor in property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs. You should create a budget that includes all of these costs and leaves room for unexpected expenses.
How much money do I need for a down payment?
The amount of money you need for a down payment will depend on the type of mortgage you get and the price of the home you are buying.
Some mortgage programs, such as FHA loans, allow for down payments as low as 3.5%, while others may require a higher down payment. It’s a good idea to speak with a mortgage lender to determine how much you will need.
Can I buy a house if I have a low credit score?
It’s possible to buy a house with a low credit score. However, it may be more difficult to get approved for a mortgage, and you may have to pay a higher interest rate. Before applying for a mortgage, work on improving your credit scores, as this will help you qualify for a better loan and save you money over time.
How much will closing costs be?
Closing costs are fees that are paid at the closing of a real estate transaction. These costs can vary widely and may include things like mortgage origination fees, title insurance, and appraisal fees. On average, closing costs can range from 2% to 5% of the purchase price of the home.
What is a mortgage preapproval?
A mortgage preapproval is a letter from a lender that indicates how much you are qualified to borrow for a mortgage. The preapproval letter is based on a review of your financial information, including your credit score, monthly income, and debts. A mortgage preapproval can help you understand how much you can afford to borrow and can make you a more competitive buyer in the real estate market.
What is a mortgage rate?
A mortgage rate is the interest rate that you will pay on your mortgage. The mortgage rate will determine the amount of your monthly payments and the overall cost of your loan. Interest rates can vary depending on the type of mortgage you get and your credit scores.
What is PMI?
PMI, or private mortgage insurance, is insurance that is required by lenders for certain types of mortgages when the borrower has less than a 20% down payment. PMI protects the lender in the event that the borrower defaults on the mortgage. The cost of PMI is typically added to the borrower’s monthly mortgage payment.
It’s the season of new beginnings and fresh starts: Spring cleaning, the outdoors, weddings, gardening and… real estate.
But in a housing market marked by high mortgage rates, low housing inventory and steep home prices, we still haven’t seen a typical spring homebuying season.
Though mortgage application volume is higher than it was last fall when home loan rates peaked above 8%, it’s still 10% lower than it was last year.
As temperatures go up in 2024, experts anticipate a somewhat healthier spring market, with inventory and home listings growing. So far, however, it hasn’t been such a great kickoff: In April, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage pushed back above 7% in response to hot inflation data.
But context is critical, according to Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire. “Last year was the all-time low in new listings data,” he said.
Here’s a look at how the spring market is shaping up and what buyers can do to navigate it successfully.
Why is spring the season to buy and sell a home?
There are several reasons behind the rush of home listings and sales in the springtime and early summer months, according to Jeb Smith, realtor and CNET Money Expert Review Board member.
Warmer weather: Better temperatures and more sunlight make it easier for buyers to go out, tour and inspect properties compared with the winter months.
Timing with academic calendar: Families start the buying process so they can be settled into a new home before the start of their child’s school year in the fall.
Greater inventory: With sellers motivated to sell due to an influx of motivated buyers, increased supply hits the market.
Favorable to buyers and sellers: Buyers know there will be more choices available to them, and sellers take advantage of demand to list their homes at higher prices.
Why is today’s spring market different?
Beyond seasonal trends, the housing market is highly sensitive to broader economic shifts. Over the past two years, high inflation and surging mortgage rates have done significant damage to affordability for the average homebuyer.
From May 2019 to May 2023, average mortgage rates increased by more than 2%, causing a roughly 25% drop in home sales, according to data from Redfin. Homeowners who are currently “locked in” with low home loan rates have less incentive to sell, which keeps prospective buyers “locked out.”
Meanwhile, many prospective buyers are priced out of the market. According to Zillow, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical US home has almost doubled since January 2020. The average income needed to afford a home is now more than $106,500 — an 80% increase over four years — while the typical US household earns around $81,000 each year.
High mortgage rates also negatively impact existing housing inventory, said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. Because most sellers are also buyers, homeowners would rather hold onto their sub-5% mortgage rates than take out a new home loan at a 7% rate.
This “rate-lock” scenario — with sellers reluctant to give up their existing mortgage — is starting to loosen, according to Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans. Homeowners have accrued substantial equity over the last period and are more motivated to cash in on it. “Any who were waiting for rates to fall have likely given up,” Divounguy said.
Who has the upper hand this season? Buyers or sellers?
Shrinking housing supply over the past several years has given sellers the upper hand. After all, you can’t buy what’s not for sale.
“In most areas of the country, we still have more buyer demand than inventory, which is typically indicative of a seller’s market,” Smith said. Because of that imbalance, many housing markets continue to be very competitive with multiple offers on homes, he said.
Yet in some areas where supply has returned to pre-pandemic levels, buyers have more of the upper hand. Divounguy said that in markets where new construction has taken off and existing inventory has recovered, price growth is slower, giving buyers better traction in negotiations.
Generally speaking, however, housing supply is still too low. “Even with home sales still trending at record-low levels, we have too many people chasing too few homes,” Mohtashami said.
In a buyer’s market, there’s a surplus of homes for sale and not enough buyers. Buyers have more options and leverage to negotiate lower prices or other concessions from sellers.
In a seller’s market, demand for homes exceeds supply. With more buyers ready to make offers on fewer homes, sellers are at an advantage and asking prices are generally higher.
If mortgage rates were to drop significantly, we’d likely see a substantial uptick in buyer and seller activity. However, 6% mortgage rates are still several months away, keeping a lid on the number of new listings this spring.
At the same time, homeseekers who need to relocate — or those getting tired of waiting on the sidelines — are starting to adjust to the new normal. Many families can’t put their lives on hold forever, and another era of sub-3% mortgage rates isn’t on the horizon.
“Buyers seem to now be accepting this higher-rate environment and are getting back into the market,” said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage. Many of them know they have the option to refinance to a lower rate when mortgage rates eventually come down, she said.
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How does low inventory affect home prices?
In February, new listings increased 14.8% from the prior year, the largest annual gain since May 2021, according to Redfin. Currently, there are about 25% more available homes for sale compared with 2023, adding up to around 100,000 extra single-family homes on the market, Smith said. But again, context is critical.
“Even with this increase, the number of homes for sale is still much lower than what we saw before the pandemic hit, indicating we’re not yet back to a ‘normal’ market,” Smith said.
With buyer demand outweighing existing supply, home prices continue to go up. In February, the median sale price was $412,778, which is 6.6% higher than the previous year.
Should you sit it out this homebuying season?
Ultimately, the right time to buy a house depends on your finances, goals and timeline. The housing market has its patterns and fluctuations, but that doesn’t mean it has to dictate what works for you.
If you find a home that meets your needs and aligns with your budget, go for it. You can always refinance to a lower mortgage rate later.
But if you decide to delay buying a house, you can take steps toward having a more solid foundation as a future homeowner. By waiting, you’re giving yourself time to save for a bigger down payment, improve your credit and be in an overall better position to purchase a house, even if it’s not for several spring seasons down the road.
Daily average mortgage rates jumped to their highest level since last November after last week’s disappointing inflation report
SEATTLE, April 18, 2024–(BUSINESS WIRE)–(NASDAQ: RDFN) —The median U.S. home-sale price increased 5% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending April 14, bringing it to $380,250—just $3,095 shy of June 2022’s all-time high. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
The average daily mortgage rate this week surpassed 7.4%, the highest level since last November, after a hotter-than-expected inflation report and the Fed’s confirmation that interest-rate cuts will be delayed. The combination of high mortgage rates and prices have brought homebuyers’ median monthly housing payment to a record $2,775, up 11% year over year.
There are signals that buyers are out there touring homes despite rising rates. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 5% week over week, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—is near its highest level in seven months. Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead, said some house hunters are hoping to buy now because they’re concerned rates could rise more, and others have grown accustomed to elevated rates and pushed down their home-price budget accordingly.
“Home sales are slower than usual, but there are still people buying and selling because if not now, when?” said Connie Durnal, a Redfin Premier agent in Dallas. “I’ve had a few prospective buyers touring homes for the last several years, since mortgage rates started going up, and they wish they would have bought last year because prices and rates are even higher now. My advice to them: If you can afford to and you find a house you love, buy now. There’s no guarantee that rates will come down soon.”
For more of Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate
7.41% (April 17)
Up from 7% one month earlier; highest level since November 2023
Increased 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending April 12)
Down 10%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)
Up 8% from a month earlier (as of week ending April 14)
Down 11%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity
Up 33% from the start of the year (as of April 14)
At this time last year, it was up 23% from the start of 2023
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”
Unchanged from a month earlier (as of April 14)
Down 17%
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending April 14, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending April 14, 2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$380,250
4.7%
Median asking price
$413,225
6.4%
Biggest increase since Oct. 2022; all-time high
Median monthly mortgage payment
$2,775 at a 6.88% mortgage rate
10.6%
All-time high
Pending sales
86,086
-2.3%
New listings
93,332
10.8%
Active listings
832,748
9.6%
Months of supply
3.3 months
+0.4 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
Share of homes off market in two weeks
42.6%
Down from 44%
Median days on market
35
-1 day
Share of homes sold above list price
29.2%
Essentially unchanged
Share of homes with a price drop
5.9%
+1.6 pts.
Average sale-to-list price ratio
99.2%
+0.2 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending April 14, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases
Notes
Median sale price
Anaheim, CA (24.8%)
Providence, RI (14.6%)
Nassau County, NY (14.3%)
West Palm Beach, FL (13.5%)
New Brunswick, NJ (13.1%)
San Antonio, TX (-1%)
Declined in just 1 metro
Pending sales
San Jose, CA (25.6%)
San Francisco (11.2%)
Oakland, CA (7.1%)
Columbus, OH (6.7%)
Seattle (6.4%)
Nassau County, NY (-14.9%)
Atlanta (-13.6%)
Houston (-11.6%)
Riverside, CA (-10.8%)
Fort Lauderdale, FL (-10%)
Increased in 14 metros
New listings
San Jose, CA (46.6%)
Sacramento, CA (27.6%)
Phoenix (27.4%)
Jacksonville, FL (27.2%)
Dallas (22.9%)
Newark, NJ (-12.4%)
Providence, RI (-6.3%)
Milwaukee (-4.6%)
Chicago (-4.5%)
Detroit (-3.1%)
Declined in 9 metros
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-prices-mortgage-rates-increase
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country’s #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we’ve saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin’s press release distribution list, email [email protected]. To view Redfin’s press center, click here.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240418348073/en/
A post-occupancy agreement, also known as a post-closing possession agreement, allows the seller to remain in the property they just sold to the buyer for a set period after closing. This can be a win-win for both parties in some situations, but it comes with major risks for the buyers. I have personally bought many houses with post-occupancy agreements and some worked out great while others ended in a costly eviction. A post-occupancy agreement may be needed in some cases but as a regular home buyer, I would be very careful ever accepting one.
Table of Contents
What is a post-occupancy agreement?
In a typical home sale transaction, the seller and buyer agree to a closing date and time, and possession of the home transfers when that closing takes place. The sellers bring the keys and hand them to the buyers if they are both at closing. Or the buyers can pick up the keys or their agent can give them the keys if both parties are not at the closing table (my preference).
In some cases, a seller may want extra time to move out after closing. They may be waiting for their new house to close, or for a house to be built, or they might just want more time to move. This sounds like a reasonable request for the seller but it can come with major risks for the buyer. This is why I try to avoid post-occupancy agreements if possible.
The video below was a nightmare after a post-occupancy agreement went bad:
What are the risks of a post-occupancy agreement?
Many people have heard the stories on the news of a seller who will not move out of their home are they sell. Almost all of these situations come from post-occupancy agreements. During a typical sale, the buyer does a walk-through of the home to make sure it is clean, all the seller’s stuff is moved out, and the property is in the same condition as when they put a contract on it (unless the contract says otherwise). If there is anything wrong, the buyer can delay or even not buy the home.
When the seller is still living in the home and the buyer closes on it (completes the purchase), they cannot make sure it is clean, all the seller’s stuff is gone, or the seller is out. Some sellers want the money that is in their home but want to stay! If the seller does not leave after a post-occupancy agreement, the buyer cannot simply kick them out, they must go to court and evict them.
An eviction can take months or even years in some states like New York.
Why do I agree to post-occupancy agreements?
I am a real estate investor who works hard to get the best deals I can. I buy a lot of distressed properties that need work and many sellers have unique situations. I also buy from many wholesalers who make deals with sellers that I must agree to. In a perfect world, I would never do a post-occupancy agreement but in some cases, it is a take-it-or-leave-it situation and the deal is good enough for me to take the risk.
I would estimate I have some kind of problem with 30 percent of the post-occupancy agreements I do. For me, it is not as big of a problem as it can be for inexperienced homeowners or people who need to move into the home. I also have a YouTube channel that helps me recoup some of my losses with the crazy situations that occur. I also know how to handle evictions, squatters, and other situations where someone not as experienced could be completely lost on what to do.
How should a post-occupancy agreement be structured
There are also risks with how post-occupancy agreements are structured. Some people just agree to let the seller stay and maybe pay a little rent. The problem with this is there is no motivation for them to move out. When we do a post-occupancy agreement we try to make it painful if the seller does not hold up to their obligations and move.
The post-occupancy agreement should always be in writing and money should be held back in escrow from the seller proceeds. I like to hold back at least $10,000 on houses below $400k and if they do not move by a certain date, I get that $10,000 as the buyer. That may seem like a lot but an eviction and a few months of house payments can eat through that very fast. If you are buying a more expensive home, I would hold back much more.
I have seen many agreements that can be wishy-washy and not work out for either party. Some will charge a per diem if the seller does not move like $200 a day. It can be confusing when they are officially out, and when the dates officially start and proving when they are out. I have seen some people create a lease with rent charged and a deposit. You have to be very careful with this as many states have laws on how much the deposit can be compared to rent, how a deposit is paid back or kept, and the rights of the tenant after the lease is started. It is usually easier to evict a seller who does not move than a tenant with a lease.
Another crazy situation:
Should you agree to a post-occupancy agreement?
If you are a regular home buyer looking for a place to move into, be very careful agreeing to a post-occupancy agreement. I would make sure you love that house and have no other options. If you do agree, make sure there is a large enough penalty to make it worthwhile to you if the seller does not move. You also need to make sure your insurance is set up correctly, there is an agreement for who pays for utilities and there is recourse if the house is damaged during the extra time the seller lives there. It also helps if you have a YouTube channel where you can post crazy stories if something goes bad.
Conclusion
I am okay doing post-occupancy agreements if everything is set up correctly and that is my only option. But even as an experienced investor, I try to avoid them if at all possible. If you happen to live in a state with long eviction timelines I would be really careful agreeing to any post-occupancy agreement.
Editorial Note: We earn a commission from partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors’ opinions or evaluations.
As we head into peak home-buying season, signs of life have begun to spring up in the housing market.
Even so, still-high mortgage rates and home prices amid historically low housing stock continue to put homeownership out of reach for many.
Moreover, the National Association of Realtors agreed to a monumental $418 million settlement on March 15 following a verdict favoring home sellers in a class action lawsuit. Still subject to court approval, the settlement requires changes to broker commissions that will upend the buying and selling model that has been in place for years.
Housing Market Forecast for 2024
Elevated mortgage rates, out-of-reach home prices and record-low housing stock are the perennial weeds that experts say hopeful home buyers can expect to contend with this spring—and beyond.
“The housing market is likely to continue to face the dual affordability constraints of high home prices and elevated interest rates in 2024,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, in an emailed statement. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast.”
Despite ongoing affordability hurdles, Fannie Mae forecasts an increase in home sales transactions compared to last year. Experts also anticipate a slower rise in home prices this year compared to recent years, but price fluctuations will continue to vary regionally and depend strongly on local market supply.
U.S. home prices declined in January for the third consecutive month due to high borrowing costs, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. But prices year-over-year jumped 6%—the fastest annual rate since 2022.
Chief economist at First American Financial Corporation Mark Fleming predicts a “flat stretch” ahead.
“If the 2020-2021 housing market was too hot, then the 2023 market was probably too cold, but 2024 won’t yet be just right,” Fleming said in his 2024 forecast.
Will the Housing Market Finally Recover in 2024?
For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.
“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”
And, of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off—which experts say is imminent despite rates edging back up toward 7%. For the week ending April 11, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.88%, according to Freddie Mac.
However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.
“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.
He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.
Nonetheless, Kuba Jewgieniew, CEO of Realty ONE Group, a real estate brokerage company, is optimistic about a recovery this year.
“[W]e’re definitely looking forward to a better housing market in 2024 as interest rates start to settle around 6% or even lower,” says Jewgieniew.
NAR Settlement Rocks the Residential Real Estate Industry
Following years of litigation, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers.
The plaintiffs claimed that the leading national trade association for real estate brokers and agents “conspired to require home sellers to pay the broker representing the buyer of their homes in violation of federal antitrust law.”
Though the landmark settlement is subject to court approval, most consider it a done deal.
The settlement requires NAR to enact new rules, including prohibiting offers of broker compensation on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings. The rule is set to take effect in mid-July, once the settlement receives judge approval.
Moreover, sellers will no longer be required to pay buyer broker commissions and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with their buyer clients.
NAR denies any wrongdoing and maintains that its current policies benefit buyers and sellers. The organization believes it’s not liable for seller claims related to broker commissions, stating that it has never set commissions and that commissions have always been negotiable.
How Will the New Rules Impact the Buying and Selling Process?
Per the settlement’s terms, the costs associated with buying and selling a home are set to change dramatically.
“The primary things that will change are the decoupling of the seller commission and the buyer commission in the MLS,” says Rita Gibbs, a Realtor at Realty One Group Integrity in Tucson. “It’s gonna cause some chaos.”
While sellers will no longer be able to offer broker compensation in the MLS, there’s no rule prohibiting off-MLS negotiations. Because of this, Gibbs suspects buyers and sellers will continue offering broker compensation off the MLS.
The Department of Justice confirmed it will permit listing brokers to display compensation details on their websites. However, buyer agents will need to undergo the tedious task of visiting countless broker websites to find who’s offering what.
Michael Gorkowski, a Virginia-based real estate agent with Compass, is also trying to figure out how to manage the potential ruling.
“We often work with buyers for many months and sometimes years before they find exactly what they’re looking for,” Gorkowski says. “So in a case where a seller isn’t offering a co-broker commission, we will have to negotiate that the buyer pays an agreed-upon commission prior to starting their search.”
The Changes Will Impact These Home Buyers Most
“In the short term, it is absolutely going to injure buyers, especially FHA and VA buyers,” Gibbs says. “With rare exception, these buyers are not in a position to pay for their own agent.”
Gibbs says that if sellers don’t offer compensation, many buyers who can’t otherwise afford to pay a broker will choose to go unrepresented.
Gorkowski notes that veterans taking out VA loans face a unique challenge under the new rules. “[P]er the VA requirements, buyers cannot pay so it must be negotiated with the seller for now.”
As a result, NAR is calling on the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to revise its policies prohibiting VA buyers from paying broker commissions. Even so, there’s skepticism that the federal government will be able to implement changes in time for the July deadline.
Gibbs and Gorkowski are among the many agents especially concerned about first-time home buyers. After July, first-time and VA buyers will be required to sign a buyer-broker agreement stating that they will compensate their broker—but Gibbs says many won’t have the means to do so.
In this situation, agents would likely only show buyers homes where sellers are offering compensation.
“This is a very troubling situation,” Gorkowski says.
Housing Inventory Forecast for 2024
With many homeowners “locked in” at ultra-low interest rates or unwilling to sell due to high home prices, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while—even as some homeowners may finally be forced to sell due to major life events such as divorce, job changes or a growing family.
“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.
Housing stock remains near historic lows—especially entry-level supply—which has propped up demand and sustained ultra-high home prices. Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.
Yet, some hopeful housing stock signs have begun to sprout:
Existing inventory is showing signs of loosening as impatient buyers and sellers have begun to accept the reality of mortgage rates oscillating between 6% and 7%.
Home-builder outlook also continues to get sunnier, trending back up amid declining mortgage rates and better building conditions.
The most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks builder sentiment, saw a fourth consecutive monthly rise, surpassing a crucial threshold with an increase from 48 to 51 in March. A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.
At the same time, new single-family building permits ticked up 1% in February—the 13th consecutive monthly increase—according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales
Though some housing market data indicates signs of growth are in store this spring home-buying season, persistently high mortgage rates may hinder activity from fully flourishing.
Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.
Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales came to life in February, shooting up 9.5% from the month before, according to the latest data from the NAR. Sales dipped 3.3% from a year ago.
Experts attribute the monthly jump to a bump in inventory.
“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report.
Existing inventory rose 5.9%—logging 1.07 million unsold homes at the end of February. However, there are still only 2.9 months of inventory at the current sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market falling between four and six months.
Meanwhile, existing home prices continue to soar to unprecedented heights, reaching $384,500, which marks the eighth consecutive month of yearly price increases and a February median home price record.
New Home Sales
Sales of newly constructed single-family houses ticked down by a nominal 0.3% compared to January, but outpaced February 2023 sales by 5.9%, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.
Amid a high percentage of homeowners still locked in to low mortgage rates, home builders have been picking up the slack.
“New construction continues to be an outsized share of the housing inventory,” said Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, in an emailed statement.
Sturtevant notes that declining new home prices are coming amid a recent trend of builders introducing smaller and more affordable homes to the market.
The median price for a new home in February was $400,500, down 7.6% from a year ago.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Pending Home Sales
NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index rose 1.6% in February from the month prior even as mortgage rates approached 7% by the end of the month. Pending transactions declined 7% year-over-year.
A pending home sale marks the point in the home sales transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator of future closed sales.
The Midwest and South saw monthly transaction gains while the Northeast and West saw declines due to affordability challenges in those higher-cost regions.
“While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress from the lows of late last year,” said Yun, in the report.
Ongoing Affordability Challenges Could Throw Cold Water on Spring Home-Buying Hopes
Though down from its 2023 high of 7.79%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2024 remains well over 6% amid rising home values. As a result, home buyers continue to face affordability challenges.
According to data from its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report, property data provider Attom found that median-priced single-family homes remain less affordable than the historical average in over 95% of U.S. counties.
For one, the data uncovered that expenses are eating up more than 32% of the average national wage. Common lending guidelines require monthly mortgage payments, property taxes and homeowners insurance to comprise 28% or less of your gross income.
At the same time, home prices and homeownership expenses continue to outpace wage growth.
Consequently, the latest expense-to-wage ratio is hovering at one of the highest points over the past decade, according to the Attom report, despite some slight affordability improvements over the last two quarters.
“Affording a home remains a financial stretch, or a pipe dream, for so many households,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom.
Pro Tips for Buyers and Sellers
Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.
Pro Tips for Buying in Today’s Real Estate Market
Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:
Know your budget. Instead of focusing on price, figure out how much you can afford as a monthly payment. Your monthly housing payment is influenced by the price of the home, your down payment, mortgage rate, loan term, home insurance and property taxes.
Be flexible about home size and location. Perhaps your budget is sufficient for a small home in your perfect neighborhood, or a larger, newer home further out. Understanding your priorities and having some flexibility can help you move quickly when a suitable home enters the market.
Keep an eye on the market where you hope to buy. Determine the area’s available inventory and price levels. Also, pay attention to how quickly homes sell. Not only will you be tuned in when something great hits the market, you can feel more confident moving forward with purchasing a well-priced home. A real estate agent can help with this.
Don’t be discouraged. Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions you’ll ever make. Approaching the market confidently, armed with good information and grounded expectations will take you far. Don’t let the hustle of the market convince you to buy something that’s not in your budget, or not right for your lifestyle.
Pro Tips for Selling in Today’s Real Estate Market
Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:
Research comparable home prices in your area. Sellers need to have the most up-to-date pricing intel on comparable homes selling in their market. Know the market competition and price the home competitively. In addition, understand that in some price points it’s a buyer’s market—you’ll need to be prepared to make some concessions.
Make sure your home is in top-notch shape. Homes need to be in great condition to compete and create a strong “online curb appeal.” Well-maintained homes and attractive front yards are major features that buyers look for.
Work with a local real estate agent. A real estate agent or team with a strong local marketing presence and access to major real estate portals can offer significant value and help you land a great deal.
Don’t put off issues that require attention. Prepare the home by making any repairs or improvements. Removing any objections that buyers may see helps focus the buyer on the positive attributes of the home.
Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?
Despite some areas of the country experiencing monthly price declines, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.
“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.
Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.
“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.
“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.
Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.
Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.
“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.
Will Foreclosures Increase in 2024?
In February, total foreclosure filings were down 1% from the previous month but up 8% from a year ago, according to Attom.
“These trends could signify evolving financial landscapes for homeowners, prompting adjustments in market strategies and lending practices,” said Barber, in a report.
Lenders began foreclosure on 22,575 properties in February, up 4% from the previous month and 11% from a year ago. Meanwhile, real estate-owned properties, or REOs, which are homes unsold at foreclosure auctions and taken over by lenders, spiked year-over-year in three states: South Carolina (up 51%), Missouri (up 50%) and Pennsylvania (up 46%).
Despite foreclosure activity trending up nationally and certain areas of the country seeing notable annual increases in REOs, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.
“Foreclosure activity is still only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels … and isn’t likely to be back to 2019 numbers until sometime in mid-to-late 2024,” says Sharga.
The biggest reasons for this, Sharga explains, are the strength of the economy—we’re still seeing low unemployment and steady wage growth—along with excellent loan quality.
Massive home price growth in homeowner equity over the past few years has also helped reduce foreclosures.
Sharga says that some 80% of today’s homeowners have more than 20% equity in their property. So, while there may be more foreclosure starts in 2024—due in part to Covid-era mortgage relief programs phasing out—foreclosure auctions and lender repossessions should remain below 2019 levels.
When Will Be the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2024?
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.
Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.
“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”
Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.
“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”
Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Will declining mortgage rates cause home prices to rise?
Declining mortgage rates will likely incentivize would-be buyers anxious to own a home to jump into the market. Expect this increased demand amid today’s tight housing supply to put upward pressure on home prices.
What will happen if the housing market crashes?
Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.
Is it smart to buy real estate before a recession?
If you’re in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it won’t matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. However, if you are looking to buy real estate as a short-term investment, it will come with more risk if you buy at the height before a recession.
There are now 526,000 single-family homes active unsold on the market. That’s up 2.6% from the previous week when the data included the Easter holiday. It’s a holiday week jump so it’s not super crazy, but a 2.6% jump in unsold inventory in a week is very notable. This is absolutely a function of high and rising mortgage rates. I’ve been sharing this view for two full years now. As mortgage rates rise, inventory rises. Or, to put it another way: demand slows, inventory grows. So, rates are up and inventory is undeniably growing.
Available inventory of unsold homes on the market is 30% greater than last year at this time and 102% more than in mid-April 2022. There are 120,000 more homes on the market now than there were last year. There are 250,000 more homes on the market now than two years ago. Much of this inventory increase is concentrated is a few key markets.
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Two years ago, rates were obviously rising for the first time in years and inventory was rising too. Inventory was coming off the record lows of the pandemic, but was already increasing 2-3% per week as demand slowed.
Year-over-year inventory growth like this can lead to home-price declines in the future since sales price measures lag way behind the changes in supply and demand. Because we have 30% year-over-year inventory gains now, we’ll be on the lookout for more signals of weakness in home prices as the year progresses.
It’s important to note that we don’t see any signs in the data of a major home-price crash. In early 2022, inventory rose quickly and home prices fell in Q4 of that year. Home prices recovered in 2023 very quickly though. If we finally get some stability in mortgage rates, expect stability also in home prices. If we are in a world of continued rising mortgage rates, supply and demand will continue their imbalance and we’ll likely see price adjustments.
New listings
Inventory growth is from a combination of fewer buyers as affordability worsens, but also gradually improving seller volume. There were 66,000 new listings unsold last week plus another 20,000 immediate sales for 86,000 total new listings. That’s 32% more new listings last week than the same week a year ago.
The measure from last year included last year’s Easter holiday weekend so some of this 32% is from that easy comparison. But each week in 2024 is averaging 13% more sellers than last year at this time. So we have obvious seller growth as we settle into mortgage rates higher for longer.
This concept is counter-intuitive. Many listeners are familiar with the concept of a mortgage rate lock-in. This was the topic of my Top of Mind podcast interview last week with Jonah Coste from FHFA discussing their paper on the lock-in effect.
The lock-in premise is that if rates rise, it becomes more expensive for homeowners to move, so higher rates create more lock-in and fewer sellers. But that’s proving to be only partially true. The lock-in effect keeps us with relatively few sellers: 80,000 instead of 100,000 each week in previous healthy years, but we have more sellers every week than last year even though mortgage rates are higher now.
In fact, there were more new listings last week at 66,000 than any week in 2023 and we have a couple months of spring still for that number to climb.
New pendings
Meanwhile, there were 69,000 new pendings last week. These are homes that were listed, took offers and started the contract process. It takes just under 40 days on average to close the transaction, so these are sales that will close in May for the most part.
The 69,000 contracts is 10% more than a year ago and 7% more than the previous week, which included the Easter holiday. So like the inventory numbers, last week’s big jump is mostly a rebound from the holiday. But it’s really encouraging that sales each week continue to come in ahead of last year.
If rates finally fall, we’ll see this transaction rate accelerate, and we’ll see inventory fall too. But there doesn’t seem to be any inclination of rates falling. This weekly new pendings data is a very handy measure of interest-rate sensitivity.
There are 371,000 single-family homes in contract right now. That’s just 4% more than last year at this time. A lot of places in the country still have fewer sales than last year. The market is trying to grow, but a new jump in mortgage rates doesn’t help. More sales are happening with cash right now, so the mortgage indices are still at record lows. If we get lucky and rates don’t keep climbing, then we’ll continue to see home sales run just a little ahead of last year. The more stable rates stay, the more sales can inch forward.
Home prices
The median price of the homes that took offers last week was $389,900. That is actually below 2022 by 1%. In 2022, home prices still had pandemic momentum into the second quarter. The median price of all the homes in contract is $399,000, which means the homes that sell in April and May will be 5% higher priced than 2023.
The median price of the active market was $447,527 last week. That’s up for the week and 1.7% above last year. The asking prices are leading indicators of where future sales prices will happen. And the growth in those leading indicators is not very strong — just barely above last year at this time.
The price of the newly listed cohort came in pretty strong in the week after Easter at $435,000, which was a new all-time high for that measure. So, not all of the pricing indicators are bearish. That’s good to keep our eyes on.
Price reductions
On the other hand, 32.1% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s up a fraction from the previous week, 10 basis points. If this most recent move in mortgage rates is stifling homebuyers, we’ll see the price reductions number jump in next Monday’s video.
Some of the homes that are on the market and expected offers last week didn’t get their offers because of the most recent mortgage rate jump. If they don’t get the offer, then on Monday or Tuesday, a few are going to reduce their asking price to try to stimulate demand.
Two takeaways from the price-reductions data: One, next week we will be watching for how many listings cut their prices as a result of newly higher mortgage rates. We can see that moment in September of 2022 when price cuts jumped and we saw it again last September when rates jumped. Will we see it again in next Monday’s data?
And two, because price cuts are a bit high and climbing now, we have to look at that as a slightly bearish signal for home prices for the rest of the year. Transaction volume is climbing but prices do not appear to be climbing considering these levels of unaffordability.
A central counterparty clearing house (CCP), or Central Counterparty, is a financial institution that facilitates trading activities in European equity and derivative markets. Regional banks typically operate CCPs which are an important part of the international financial system.
CCPs maintain stability and efficiency across financial markets and reduce risks including counterparty, default, and market risks. In the United States, CCPs are called Derivatives Clearing Organizations (DCO) and are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Defining Central Counterparty Clearing Houses
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) defines a CCP as “a clearing house that interposes itself between counterparties to contracts traded in one or more financial markets, becoming the buyer to every seller and the seller to every buyer and thereby ensuring the future performance of open contracts.” The Eurex is a well known CCP.
Central Counterparty Clearing Houses act as intermediaries between buyers and sellers in financial transactions. They handle clearing and settlements in various types of securities and derivatives transactions to reduce credit risk in the markets. Clearinghouses have existed for more than a century, and act as a way to reduce the risk of OTC derivative transactions.
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How Central Counterparty Clearing Houses Work
Central Counterparty Clearing Houses guarantee trade terms for buyers and sellers. They help reduce risk for investors by taking on credit risk involved in transactions, so even if a buyer or seller defaults on a transaction the other party doesn’t have as much loss as they might have without the CCP.
When buyers and sellers enter into transactions, they each deposit money with the CCP to cover the amount of the transaction. All CCP users must have a margin account.
In a process called “novation,” the CCP enters into two different contracts, one with the buyer and one with the seller. This provides a guarantee to the other party that if one side doesn’t follow through with the agreement the other side will still receive payment. CCPs typically use margin calls to settle trades if one party does not have the funds in their account.
If the trade falls through, the CCP completes the trade at the current market price. CCPs are for-profit businesses that generate revenue from their members and their transactions. They also work with parent exchanges that require them to remain profitable. Just like other types of businesses, CCPs each operate differently and have different business strategies to attract customers and earn revenue.
For instance, there are different types of derivative products that a CCP might choose to offer. One common business model for CCPs is to cross-margin products in a single netting pool. Parent exchanges place obligations on CCPs, so they need to earn enough revenue to meet those.
The specific financial products offered by a CCP, as well as its risk level, fee structure, and other features lead to different types of members, organizational structure, regulations, and rules for margin balances.
CCPs continue to evolve, offer new products, and become more sophisticated over time. Regulations are also evolving for CCPs which may change how they operate in the future.
Uses of a Central Counterparty Clearing House
CCPs maintain the anonymity of investors’ identities to protect their privacy. They also maintain the privacy of trading firms from buyers and sellers by using electronic order books and protect brokerage firms from the risk of buyers and sellers defaulting on their end of options such as calls or puts.
Another use of CCPs is to lower the number of transactions settled in order to move funds efficiently between investors.
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CCP Members
Financial institutions that want to clear trades through a central counterparty can become members of a particular CCP. Membership allows them to reduce credit risk for their customers and themselves. There are CCPs for different types of financial transactions, so financial institutions can choose the appropriate CCP to apply to for their needs.
CCPs want members that have a significant transaction volume, are creditworthy, and have a trading operation that works efficiently with the system run by the CCP. CCPs also want members to contribute funds to their default fund and secure collateral for their transactions. Each CCP has somewhat different criteria and requirements for membership, and membership information is not always publicly available.
Pros and Cons of CCPs
There are benefits and drawbacks to CCPs. Here are a few important ones to understand:
Pros
CCPs benefit investors in the following ways:
• Reduce counterparty risk
• Maintain stability in financial markets
• Increase efficiency of transactions
• Maintains privacy of customers
Cons
There are also some drawbacks to CCPs for investors, including the following:
• Participation fees
• May not be able to process non-standard transactions
• Some CCPs may not have adequate scale
CCPs and Blockchain
CCPs are now being used with blockchain technology, made popular in cryptocurrency markets, to further reduce risk and costs. An international group of clearing houses launched the Post Trade Distributed Ledger Group launched in 2015. The group studies ways to use blockchain technology for transactions.
Since its formation, the group has expanded to include about 40 global financial institutions collaborating to bring CCPs together with blockchain. The goal of using blockchain technology with CCPs is to reduce margin requirements and risk, reduce operational costs, improve regulatory oversight, and increase the efficiency of trade settlements. Ideally blockchain can help support better settlements, clearing processes, and reporting.
Decentralized exchanges already operate similarly to CCPs as a third party that handles transactions.
The Takeaway
Central counterparty clearing houses help reduce the risk of trading derivatives and securities. They became more popular after the financial crisis as a way for investors to minimize counterparty risk.
While CCPs may help maintain stability in financial markets and increase efficiency, they may also involve participation fees, or may not be able to process non-standard transactions. Understanding the ins and outs of CCPs can be helpful to investors as they learn to navigate the markets.
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FAQ
What is the difference between a clearing house and a central counterparty?
While a CCP acts as a clearing house for transactions, it has an additional step involved before doing so. The two parties involved in a transaction agree upon transaction terms, then the CCP must agree to the terms before they clear the transaction.
What is the CCP margin?
CCPs require customers to make collateral deposits, known as margin deposits, before entering into transactions. This provides them with funds they can use to guarantee trades in the event that one party defaults on an agreement. The initial margin required depends on the customer, the type of financial product, and the particular trade agreement.
Does central clearing reduce counterparty risk?
Central clearing reduces counterparty risk by guaranteeing trades for buyers and sellers. They take on the credit risk involved in transactions by becoming the buyer to every seller and the seller to every buyer.
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