The “data dependent” waiting game is nothing new, even if there have been some changes in how the market has interpreted data. Specifically, the days of relying on CPI as the month’s one and only big ticket market mover are over. Traders and the Fed already know that month-over-month inflation is currently on track for 2% based on the last 2 reports.
This has caused some to cry foul over the absence of a more dovish shift, but in his two most recent appearances Powell has reminded us that they’re not ignoring the progress on inflation and instead are actually looking ahead to how the next 8 months of inflation might evolve based on other econ data. To that end, “other econ data” is as important as anything right now, and this week brings a ton of it.
Apart from Monday, each of the remaining days has a big ticket event (all times ET):
- JOLTS at 10am
- ADP at 8:15am
- Q2 GDP at 8:30am
- Claims and PCE at 8:30am
- NFP at 8:30am
- ISM Manufacturing at 10am