After systemic banking fears died down earlier in the week, Credit Suisse and other European banks are saying “game on!” Stock prices of said banks led a market-wide sell-off in equities overnight. Bonds rallied on the flight-to-safety, and yields are now back near Monday’s lows.
With the Fed in the midst of the typical 11-day communications blackout ahead of the next meeting, speculation has been running fairly wild as to how recent events affect the rate outlook. To be fair, most of the “running wild” is a product of the new itself. The Fed’s blackout period only adds a modest amount of uncertainty.
If you ask financial markets, everyone is fairly certain the Fed still hikes 25bps next week. After that, it’s anyone’s guess as Fed Funds Futures suggest rate cuts on the horizon. The overnight news brings December’s Fed rate outlook to even lower levels than those seen on Monday.
Long story short, the overnight move resets the board to be roughly in line with Monday morning. It’s like one of those placards at the work place that boasts “number of days without an accident.” We got up to “2” yesterday, and rates had risen accordingly. Now it’s back to zero, even though the Credit Suisse rout isn’t the same sort “accident” as SVB or Signature.