This funky Swiss home might not exactly have towers and turrets, but it was indeed built for Italian royalty in the 1970s. The informal dining area features a curvaceous vinyl-clad banquette and grass-green carpet, among other throwback features—ideas you can pluck from in your own home if the allover look doesn’t appeal. But for its current resident, Prince Emanuele Filiberto di Savoia, the extraness of this home is part of its charm: “If today’s kings and queens could build their own castles, perhaps they would do it like that,” he says.
East Sister Rock Island, a miniature private island and dream getaway that doubles as a thriving vacation rental, is on the market for $16,499,999, offering one lucky buyer the rare opportunity to own a secluded retreat in the Florida Keys.
This 1.4-acre island is a mere quarter-mile from Marathon, Florida, and is accessible only by boat or helicopter, providing a level of privacy and exclusivity unmatched by mainland properties.
The island’s history is as unique as its location.
Built in the 1970s, before the implementation of stricter environmental laws, the island was created for a New Jersey gastroenterologist, Klaus Meckler.
Its structure, a concrete home resting on 75 pillars drilled into coral rock and elevated on a 15-foot high plateau, showcases both engineering ingenuity and a deep respect for the surrounding natural beauty.
The 2,304-square-foot main residence, complemented by a detached guest house, features three bedrooms and two bathrooms — and has been operating as a popular vacation rental in recent years, with stellar reviews from travelers.
The property’s eco-friendly design includes a solar and wind power system, a 15,000-gallon freshwater cistern, and its own desalination plant. This off-grid setup ensures a self-sufficient living experience that aligns with modern sustainability values.
Notable for its luxurious amenities, East Sister Rock Island boasts an outdoor pool, a helicopter pad, and a dock, catering to various modes of transportation and leisure activities.
The island’s location on a coral reef, surrounded by protective rocks, offers stunning 360-degree ocean views and a serene environment, perfect for relaxation and outdoor entertainment.
In addition to its private use, the island has also been operating successfully as a vacation rental.
Related: Tour a $20M mansion in Key Biscayne, Florida with its own private yacht dock
Guests have consistently rated their stays as exceptional, highlighting the island’s tranquility, convenience, and unique experience of seclusion close to necessary amenities.
Reviews praise the comfort of the property and its amazing location, noting its easy access to nearby attractions and the fantastic fishing opportunities it offers.
This property was nothing short of amazing! My wife and I had dreamed of doing a trip like this since we’ve been married, due to the season we were in when we tied the knot a honeymoon just wasn’t in the cards. 9 years later we arrived on East Sister Rock, and enjoyed this incredible home with our family. The home was well kept, the bathrooms were gorgeous, and the home is nothing short of captivating.
One VRBO review reads
Currently listed for $16.5 million with Ember Duran of The Agency Miami, East Sister Rock Island is a testament to luxurious, sustainable living. Its blend of privacy, eco-conscious design, and modern amenities makes it a one-of-a-kind property in the heart of the Florida Keys.
Whether as a private retreat or a high-end vacation rental, this island promises a unique and unforgettable experience in one of the most beautiful locations in the United States, and we’re looking forward to seeing who its lucky future owners will be — and how much East Sister Rock Island will end up selling for.
Until then, we’ll add it to our vision boards and daydream about one day owning our own slice of paradise in the azure waters of the Florida Keys.
More stories
Three neighboring properties in Miami Beach eye $150 million sale
You can buy Tom Brady’s former Florida apartment – But it won’t come cheap
Mar-a-Lago neighboring mansion undergoing a massive renovation eyes $40 million sale
Of course, the Fed mainly focuses on core inflation, and its primary inflation data is the PCE inflation report. However, we have made some good progress with the core inflation data in the CPI report in the past year.
Generally speaking, today’s headline and core inflation prints were hotter than anticipated. Rents are still lagging badly behind the current data, and even though the downtrend in shelter inflation is here, we are far from the reality. Used car prices were more firm than anticipated but also in the downtrend. As shown below, we have room to go lower in shelter.
Why the Fed will cut rates in 2024
It’s a simple premise for me: the Federal Reserve over-hiked because they panicked toward the end of 2022 going into 2023. The inflation growth rate was running hotter than they would have liked then, even though everyone knew that rent inflation was propping up the data at that point. They didn’t care — they still went hawkish in early 2023. However, they have room to cut in 2024 because the Fed Funds rate is much higher than the inflation growth rate if you look at it at on a 3 to 6-month timeline — and still higher versus 12-month data.
This means the Fed is still restrictive, and if they want a soft landing, they’re going to cut rates in 2024. If I was running the Fed, I would tell everyone we are getting the Fed Funds rate near where core PCE data growth is growing.This would mean, at minimum six to eight rate cuts this year, but that would give the market and the economy a way to get to neutral and not be old and slow.
All in all, the inflation data came in hotter than expected, but the market isn’t worried because the inflation data we have seen in the past two years came from a global pandemic and doesn’t have the same backdrop as the 1970s inflation. Like all inflation from a global pandemic, we will see some real hot inflation data up front and then the disinflation that occurs as supply chains get back to normal.
Over time, shelter inflation will fade as more supply comes onto the market. As the labor and inflation data shows, we never needed a job loss recession to slow the inflation growth rate. Also, this is happening with low unemployment, and the stock market did well in 2023. The final piece here is to get the housing COVID-19 policy out of the Fed’s brain and get existing home sales growing again.
You can sense it in the ubiquitous “Help Wanted” posters in artsy shops and restaurants, in the ranks of university students living out of their cars and in the outsize percentage of locals camping on the streets.
This seaside county known for its windswept beauty and easy living is in the midst of one of the most serious housing crises anywhere in home-starved California. Santa Cruz County, home to a beloved surf break and a bohemian University of California campus, also claims the state’s highest rate of homelessness and, by one measure based on local incomes, its least affordable housing.
Leaders in the city of Santa Cruz have responded to this hardship in a land of plenty — and to new state laws demanding construction of more affordable housing — with a plan to build up rather than out.
A downtown long centered on quaint sycamore-lined Pacific Avenue has boomed with new construction in recent years. Shining glass and metal apartment complexes sprout in multiple locations, across a streetscape once dominated by 20th century classics like the Art Deco-inspired Palomar Inn apartments.
And the City Council and planning department envision building even bigger and higher, with high-rise apartments of up to 12 stories in the southern section of downtown that comes closest to the city’s boardwalk and the landmark wooden roller coaster known as the Giant Dipper.
“It’s on everybody’s lips now, this talk about our housing challenge,” said Don Lane, a former mayor and an activist for homeless people. “The old resistance to development is breaking down, at least among a lot of people.”
Advertisement
Said current Mayor Fred Keeley, a former state assemblyman: “It’s not a question of ‘no growth’ anymore. It’s a question of where are you going to do this. You can spread it all over the city, or you can make the urban core more dense.”
But not everyone in famously tolerant Santa Cruz is going along. The high-rise push has spawned a backlash, exposing sharp divisions over growth and underscoring the complexities, even in a city known for its progressive politics, of trying to keep desirable communities affordable for the teachers, waiters, firefighters and store clerks who provide the bulk of services.
A group originally called Stop the Skyscrapers — now Housing for People — protests that a proposed city “housing element” needlessly clears the way for more apartments than state housing officials demand, while providing too few truly affordable units.
City officials say the plan they hope to finalize in the coming weeks, with its greater height limits, only creates a path for new construction. The intentions of individual property owners and the vicissitudes of the market will continue to make it challenging to build the 3,736 additional units the state has mandated for the city.
“We’ve talked to a lot of people, going door to door, and the feeling is it’s just too much, too fast,” said Frank Barron, a retired county planner and Housing for People co-founder. “The six- and seven-story buildings that they’re building now are already freaking people out. When they hear what [the city is] proposing now could go twice as high, they’re completely aghast.”
Susan Monheit, a former state water official and another Housing for People co-founder, calls 12-story buildings “completely out of the human scale,” adding: “It’s out of scale with Santa Cruz’s branding.”
Housing for People has gathered enough signatures to put a measure on the March 2024 ballot that, if approved, would require a vote of the people for development anywhere in the city that would exceed the zoning restrictions codified in the current general plan, which include a cap of roughly seven or eight stories downtown.
The activists say that they are trying to restore the voices of everyday Santa Cruzans and that city leaders are giving in to out-of-town builders and “developer overreach laws.”
The nascent campaign has generated spirited debate. Opponents contend the slow-growth measure would slam on the brakes, just as the city is overcoming decades of construction inertia. They say Santa Cruz should be a proud outlier in a long string of wealthy coastal cities that have defied the state’s push to add housing and bring down exorbitant home prices and rental costs.
Diana Alfaro, who works for a Santa Cruz development company, said many of the complaints about high-rise construction sound like veiled NIMBYism.
“We always hear, ‘I support affordable housing, but just not next to me. Not here. Not there. Not really anywhere,’ ” said Alfaro, an activist with the national political group YIMBY [Yes In My Back Yard] Action. “Is that really being inclusive?”
The dispute has divided Santa Cruz’s progressive political universe. What does it mean to be a “good liberal” on land-use issues in an era when UC Santa Cruz students commonly triple up in small rooms and Zillow reports a median rent of $3,425 that is higher than San Francisco’s?
Beginning in the 1970s, left-leaning students at the new UC campus helped power a slow-growth movement that limited construction across broad swaths of Santa Cruz County. Over the decades, the need for affordable housing was a recurring discussion. The county was a leader in requiring that builders who put up five units of housing or more set aside 15% of the units at below-market rates.
But Mayor Keeley said local officials gave only a “head nod” to the issue when it came to approving specific projects. “Well, here we are, 30 or 40 years later,” Keeley said, “and these communities are not affordable.”
Today, with 265,000 residents, the county is substantially wealthy and white.
An annual survey this year found Santa Cruz County pushed past San Francisco to be the least affordable rental market in the country, given income levels in both places. And many observers say UC Santa Cruz students contend with the toughest housing market of any college town in the state.
Advertisement
State legislators have crafted dozens of laws in recent years to encourage construction of more homes, particularly apartments. While California has long required local governments to draft “housing elements” to demonstrate their commitment to affordable housing, state officials only recently passed other measures to actually push cities to put the plans into practice.
Regional government associations draw up a Regional Housing Needs Assessment, designating how many housing units — including affordable ones — should be built during an eight-year cycle. The state Department of Housing and Community Development can reject plans it deems inadequate.
For years 2024 to 2031, Santa Cruz was told it should build at least 3,736 units, on top of its existing 24,036.
Santa Cruz and other cities have been motivated, at least in part, by a heavy “stick”: In cases when cities fail to produce adequate housing plans, the state’s so-called “builder’s remedy” essentially allows developers to propose building whatever they want, provided some of the housing is set aside for low- or middle-income families. In cities like Santa Monica and La Cañada-Flintridge, builders have invoked the builder’s remedy to push ahead with large housing projects, over the objections of city leaders.
The Santa Cruz City Council resolved to avoid losing control of planning decisions. A key part of their plan envisions putting up to 1,800 units in a sleepy downtown neighborhood of auto shops, stores and low-rise apartments south of Laurel Street. Initial concepts suggested one block could go as high as 175 feet (roughly 16 stories), but council members later proposed a 12-story height limit, substantially taller than the stately eight-story Palomar, which remains the city’s tallest building.
City planners say focusing growth in the downtown neighborhood makes sense, because bus lines converge there at a transit center and residents can walk to shops and services.
“The demand for housing is not going away,” said Lee Butler, the city’s director of planning and community development, “and this means we will have less development pressure in other areas of the city and county, where it is less sustainable to grow.”
A public survey found support for a variety of other proposed improvements to make the downtown more attractive to walkers, bikers and tourists. Among other features, the plan would concentrate new restaurants and shops around the San Lorenzo River Walk; replace the fabric-topped 2,400-seat Kaiser Permanente Arena, which hosts the Santa Cruz Warriors (the G-league affiliate of the NBA’s Golden State Warriors), with a bigger entertainment and sports venue; and better connect downtown with the beach and boardwalk.
Business owners say they favor the housing plan for a couple of reasons: They hope new residents will bring new commerce, and they want some of the affordable apartments to go to their workers, who frequently commute well over an hour from places such as Gilroy and Salinas.
Restaurateur Zach Davis called the high cost of housing “the No. 1 factor” that led to the 2018 closure of Assembly, a popular farm-to-table restaurant he co-owned.
“How do we keep our community intact, if the people who make it all happen, the workers who make Santa Cruz what it is, can’t afford to live here anymore?” Davis asked.
The city’s plan indicates that 859 of the units built over the next eight years will be for “very low income” families. But the term is relative, tied to a community’s median income, which in Santa Cruz is $132,800 for a family of four. Families bringing home between $58,000 and $82,000 would qualify as very low income. Tenants in that bracket would pay $1,800 a month for a three-bedroom apartment in one recently completed complex, built under the city’s requirement that 20% of units be rented for below-market rents.
The people pushing for high-rise development say expanding the housing supply will stem ever-rising rents. Opponents counter that the continued growth of UC Santa Cruz, which hopes to add 8,500 students by 2040, and a new surge of highly paid Silicon Valley “tech bros” looking to put down roots in beachy Santa Cruz would quickly gobble up whatever number of new units are built.
Advertisement
“They say that if you just build more housing, the prices will come down. Which is, of course, not true,” said Gary Patton, a former county supervisor and an original leader in the slow-growth movement. “So we’ll have lots more housing, with lots more traffic, less parking, more neighborhood impacts and more rich people moving into Santa Cruz.”
Leaders on Santa Cruz’s political left say new construction only touches one aspect of the housing crisis. Some of the leaders of Tenant Sanctuary, a renters’ rights group, would like to see Santa Cruz tamp down rents by creating complexes owned by the state or cooperatives and enacting a rent control law capping annual increases.
“No matter what they build, we need housing where the price is not tied to market swings and how much money can be squeezed out of a given area of land,” said Zav Hershfield, a board member for the group.
The up-zoning of downtown parcels has won the support of much of the city’s establishment, including the county Chamber of Commerce, whose chief executive said exorbitant housing prices are excluding blue-collar workers and even some well-paid professionals. “The question is, do you want a lively, vital, economically thriving community?” said Casey Beyer, CEO of the business group. “Or do you want to be a sleepy retirement community?”
Just days after the anti-high-rise measure qualified for the March ballot, the two sides began bickering over what impact it would have.
Advertisement
Lane, the former mayor, and two affordable housing developers wrote an op-ed for the Lookout Santa Cruz news site that said the ballot measure is crafted so broadly it would apply to all “development projects.” They contend that could trigger the need for citywide votes for projects as modest as raising a fence from 6 feet to 7 feet, adding an ADU to a residential property or building a shelter for the homeless, if the projects exceed current practices in a given neighborhood.
The authors accused ballot measure proponents of faux environmentalism. “If we don’t go up,” they wrote, “we have less housing near jobs — and more people driving longer distances to get to work.”
The ballot measure proponents countered that their critics were misrepresenting facts. They said the measure would not necessitate voter approval for mundane improvements and would come into play in relatively few circumstances, for projects that require amendments to the city’s General Plan.
While not staking out a formal position on the ballot measure, the city’s planning staff has concluded the measure could force citizen votes for relatively modest construction projects.
The two sides also can’t agree on the impact of a second provision of the ballot measure. It would increase from 20% to 25% the percentage of “inclusionary” (below-market-rate) units that developers would have to include in complexes of 30 units or more.
The ballot measure writers say such an increase signals their intent to assure that as much new housing as possible goes to the less affluent. But their opponents say that when cities try to force developers to include too many sub-market apartments, the builders end up walking away.
Advertisement
Santa Cruz’s housing inventory shows that the city has the potential to add as many as 8,364 units in the next eight years, when factoring in proposals such as the downtown high-rises and UC Santa Cruz’s plan to add about 1,200 units of student housing. That’s more than double the number required by the state. But the Department of Housing and Community Development requires this sort of “buffer,” because the reality is that many properties zoned for denser housing won’t get developed during the eight-year cycle.
As with many aspects of the downtown up-zoning, the two sides are at odds over whether incorporating the potential for extra development amounts to judicious planning or developer-friendly overkill.
The city’s voters have rejected housing-related measures three times in recent years. In 2018, they decisively turned down a rent control proposal. Last year, they said no to taxing owners who leave homes in the community sitting empty. But they also rejected a measure that would have blocked a plan to relocate the city’s central library while also building 124 below-market-rate apartment units.
The last time locals got this worked up about their downtown may have been at the start of the new millennium, when the City Council considered cracking down on street performers. That prompted the owner of Bookshop Santa Cruz, another local landmark, to print T-shirts and bumper stickers entreating fellow residents to “Keep Santa Cruz Weird.”
Santa Cruzans once again are being asked to consider the look and feel of their downtown and whether its future should be left to the City Council, or voters themselves. The measure provokes myriad questions, including these: Can funky, earnest, compassionate Santa Cruz remain that way, even with high-rise apartments? And, with so little housing for students and working folks, has it already lost its charm?
We’ve ridden the waves of 1970s revivals, wall-to-wall carpeting, the rise and fall of the Ultrafragola, and bouclé upholstery. When we type “interior design trends 2024” into our crystal balls (or indeed, into Google) what are we likely to find? AD PRO consulted the experts, and 2024 promises to be a year of thoughtfully chosen offbeat colors, a mix-and-match approach to the designs of different time periods, and a return to romanticism, with jewel tones and florals offering a flirty, old-fashioned respite from the onward march of technology.
Stone Fruit Chic: Peach and Apricot
Soft, sweet, and just a bit tart, peach and apricot are the dominant hues in the home trends color forecasts for 2024. Pantone declared Peach Fuzz its color of the year, and Leatrice Eiseman, executive director of the Pantone Color Institute describes it as “a color radiant with warmth and modern elegance.” Gemma Riberti, head of interiors at trend forecasting agency WGSN, notes that her team has had its eyes on orange. In particular, they note its emergence as “a recharging near-bright in the wellness sector” and as a vivacious alternative to traditional pastels. WGSN’s color of 2024, Apricot Crush, “can be easily paired with neutrals and naturals, and is suitable for textiles, glass, bath, and bedroom products” Riberti says, “but you can also work it to create intriguing narratives: offset it with greens, purples, and blues for vibrant contrast.”
JOIN NOW
New Year’s Sale: Join AD PRO for only $20 $12 per month.
Arrow
The classic technique of selecting chromatic bedfellows from opposite sides of the color wheel is also in Champalimaud Design’s toolkit. Principal Courtney Brannan tells AD PRO that when it comes to interior design trends in 2024, “we are seeing all the possibilities of peach and turquoise tones.” Though these shades have a tropical feel to them, they “can also feel neutral,” she says. Case in point: “At the Ritz-Carlton, Grand Cayman, turquoise creates an amplifying, formal statement surrounding the Silver Palm Bar.” Meanwhile, in New York City’s West Village, an apartment’s peach plaster wall “has a much more understated presence, calmly backgrounding the artful living space around it.”
That’s So Metal
It’s back to the essential elements (literally) for home decor trends in 2024: chrome, steel, and aluminum are suddenly everywhere. Pinterest Predicts 2024 includes a “Hot Metals” board with a distinctly surrealist aesthetic—gleaming surfaces that resemble the shiny sinew of liquid mercury.
David Michon, author of the Substack newsletter For Scale, thinks this is a natural consequence of the early-2020s overload of earth tones. “The desperate search for some kind of warmth in this cold world has exhausted ‘earthy’ browns and ‘meditative’ grays,” he notes. But don’t be too quick to write off these metallic finishes as industrial: “The many stainless-steel explorations of Milan’s Concorde, Harry Nuriev, or Tejumola Butler Adenuga show us that, in fact, steel simply reflects.” In general, says Michon, these metals amplify whatever vibe a room is already giving. With one notable exception: “stainless-steel appliances, which remain overrated.”
House of Hunt founder Holly Hunt concurs, but with a slightly more muted finish: “I foresee bright aluminums and silver gaining popularity in 2024 after years of gold and black dominating metal hardware and accessories,” she tells AD PRO. “However, I tend to avoid metals that are too shiny and prefer the richness of a brushed chrome or nickel, as they give a more polished and sophisticated look.” Adding to the evidence: Earlier this month, Nifembi Marcus Bello presented an eye-catching suite of cast-aluminum furniture at Design Miami.
Dark and Deep: Jewel Tones
The saturated hues of precious gems are giving the palette of 2024 design trends a sense of velvety mystery. According to Rob Natale, chief of design at Sixpenny, this is thanks in part to the recent dominance of neutrals across interiors. “People are rediscovering color in their homes, which is a welcome shift from the all-neutral palette we’ve seen for several years, and jewel tones are at the forefront of that shift,” he says. “It’s a perfect way to incorporate richness, whether as an accent or as the centerpiece for a space since they create such a strong counterpoint to almost any look.” (Heeding their own wisdom, Sixpenny is currently selling furnishings in an array of gem-inspired hues.)
The residential mortgage as we know it today is less than a century old. In fact, until the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) was founded in 1934, only one in 10 Americans even owned a home: It was a luxury available only for cash or with a very short-term loan. That all changed with the development of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage during the Great Depression, and the perfection of it after World War II. Essentially a way to buy a house on the installment plan, it made homeownership possible for millions, and solidified homeownership as a key part of the American Dream.
With the development of the 30-year mortgage came another great American pastime: the watching of mortgage interest rates. When shopping for a home loan, it can be helpful to understand the history of mortgage rate trends in America. Here we’ll break down the past 50-plus years of mortgage trends.
Current and historical mortgage rates
1970s mortgage rate trends
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage — now the most popular type of home loan — started off the decade at about 7.3 percent in 1971, according to Freddie Mac’s survey. By the end of 1979, the 30-year rate was at 12.9 percent. During this decade, the Federal Reserve’s expansionary policy and other factors helped drive inflation and borrowing costs way up.
1980s mortgage rate trends
At the beginning of 1980, homes in the U.S. cost a median $63,700, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). By 1990, that median had risen to $123,900. Spurred by the Great Inflation, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached a pinnacle of 18.4 percent in October 1981, according to Freddie Mac. Once the Fed reined in inflation, the 30-year rate seesawed down to the 9 percent range, closing the decade at 9.78 percent.
1990s mortgage rate trends
The 1990s saw a dramatic shift in the 30-year rate, which plunged to an average of 6.91 percent in 1998, according to Bankrate data. This drop was brought on by the dot-com bubble, an era when investors rushed to buy stocks from technology companies that were overvalued. When these stocks plummeted, investors turned their focus to fixed-income investments, such as bonds. As bond prices rose and yields fell, mortgage rates, which follow the 10-year Treasury’s yield, also declined.
2000s mortgage rate trends
The 30-year rate took another tumble in the latter half of the 2000s when the housing market crashed due to the prevalence of subprime loans. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped from about 8 percent at the start of the decade down to 5.4 percent by 2009, according to Bankrate data. At this time, the Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing measures, buying mortgage bonds in bulk to drive down interest rates and usher in an economic recovery.
2010s mortgage rate trends
In the 2010s, the 30-year mortgage rate continued to trend downward, beginning in the 4 percent range, dipping under the 4 percent mark and then ending the decade back in that range, according to Bankrate data. These rates were brought on in part by the Federal Reserve’s pull-back on bond-buying.
2020s mortgage rate trends
2020 saw new lows for mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed rate diving to just under 3 percent, according to Bankrate data, and averaging 3.38 percent for the year. Amid the pandemic, fearful investors were attracted to safer products such as Treasury and mortgage bonds, pushing yields — and rates — lower.
Rates began to creep back up in 2021, but the ongoing pandemic ultimately tempered their rise.
Then came 2022 and 2023. Determined to curb rampant inflation, the Federal Reserve began raising its benchmark interest rate, and mortgage rates followed suit. In October 2022, the 30-year rate breached 7 percent, but settled back into the 6 percent range for the first half of 2023. In July 2023, rates reversed course. The 30-year peaked above 8 percent on October 25, before drifting back down to 7.21 percent on December 13.
Will mortgage rates continue dropping?
While we can try to guess based on historical data, no one knows for certain what will happen to mortgage rates — whether they’ll change at all, or when. The economy and housing market are cyclical, experiencing ups and downs, at times unpredictably.
That said, we regularly ask economists and other experts to weigh in. For week-to-week predictions, check out our mortgage rate poll. For a monthly look-ahead, read our latest mortgage rate forecast.
Summary: Historical mortgage rates over time
Over the last 50 years, mortgage rates have reached both peaks and valleys, from the high of 18 percent in the 1980s to today’s relatively moderate, but somewhat volatile figures. You can view and follow current 30-year mortgage rates on Bankrate.
Below is a summary of the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by year. From the mid-1980s on, the numbers reflect Bankrate’s calculation of the effective mortgage rate, which takes into account the average number of points borrowers pay. The data from the 1970s to the early 1980s is based on Freddie Mac’s reporting.
Year
30-year fixed-rate average
Sources: Bankrate, Freddie Mac
2023
7.00%
2022
5.53%
2021
3.15%
2020
3.38%
2019
4.13%
2018
4.70%
2017
4.14%
2016
3.79%
2015
3.99%
2014
4.31%
2013
4.16%
2012
3.88%
2011
4.65%
2010
4.86%
2009
5.38%
2008
6.23%
2007
6.40%
2006
6.47%
2005
5.93%
2004
5.88%
2003
5.89%
2002
6.57%
2001
7.01%
2000
8.08%
1999
7.46%
1998
6.91%
1997
7.57%
1996
7.76%
1995
7.86%
1994
8.28%
1993
7.17%
1992
8.27%
1991
9.09%
1990
9.97%
1989
10.25%
1988
10.38%
1987
10.40%
1986
10.39%
1985
12.43%
1984
13.88%
1983
13.24%
1982
16.04%
1981
16.64%
1980
13.74%
1979
11.20%
1978
9.64%
1977
8.85%
1976
8.87%
1975
9.05%
1974
9.19%
1973
8.04%
1972
7.38%
How historical mortgage rates affect buying a home
Broadly speaking, lower mortgage rates fuel demand among homebuyers and can increase an individual’s buying power. A higher rate, on the other hand, means higher monthly mortgage payments, which can be a barrier for a buyer if the cost becomes unaffordable. In general, a borrower with a higher credit score, stable income and a sizable down payment qualifies for the lowest rates.
While you should keep an eye on mortgage rates, don’t try to time the market or predict what’ll happen. While a home is an investment, it’s also where you live. In general, it’s best to get a mortgage when the time is right for you.
How historical mortgage rates affect refinancing
When mortgage rates are on the upswing, it might make less financial sense to try to refinance. Generally, it’s best to refinance if you can shave off one-half to three-quarters of a percentage point from your current interest rate, and if you plan to stay in your home for a longer period of time. If you plan to sell your home soon, the cost to refinance might not be worth it.
Many homeowners, however, are sitting on higher levels of equity, so consider exploring a cash-out refinance. Shop around to find the lowest possible rate and fees based on your credit and finances, and be sure to lock your rate.
As we approach Christmas day, we can only hope that the Federal Reserve now realizes their fear of 1970s-style inflation created a rate-hike cycle that disproportionately impacted the U.S. housing market and that they need to be pro-housing again.
Even with all the drama we have dealt with in 2022-2023, the housing market stayed intact and never broke. Let’s look at the tracker for the week before Christmas and see what the forward-looking data looks like before we open presents.
Weekly housing inventory data
We are near the end of the year, which means the seasonal decline in housing inventory will take hold until we find the seasonal bottom in inventory in 2024. However, one thing is sure: from 2020 to 2023 we never saw credit-stressed home sellers. We never saw the Airbnb crash that dominated some of the housing headlines in 2023. While inventory levels are still too low for my taste, it’s good that we are not at 2022 levels when we only had 240,194 total active single-family listings for Americans to buy.
Last year, according to Altos Research, the seasonal peak for housing inventory was Oct. 28. This year’s peak was Nov. 17.
Weekly inventory change: (Dec.15-22): Inventory fell from 538,767 to 528,601
Same week last year (Dec. 16-23): Inventory fell from 522,869 to 508,777
The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 so far is 569,898
For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,013,245
One of my concerns with higher mortgage rates was that we could see another new leg lower in new listings data, which wouldn’t be good for housing because most sellers are homebuyers. This got tested in 2023 with 8% mortgage rates; not only did that not happen, but the new listing data was very stable, meaning it was forming a bottom. This is a big Merry Christmas gift for the housing market. Months ago on CNBC, I talked about how we should see some growth in this data in the second half of the year we have!
However, the key to this data line is that we want to see real year-over-year growth in the spring of 2024 — back to levels of 2021 and 2022. Historically speaking, 2021 and early 2022 were the two lowest ever in new listings data. But once rates went above 6%, since July of 2022, we were treading for 17 months at a new low. For us to have a functioning marketplace, we need new listing data to get back to 2021 and 2022 levels, which means more sales can happen in 2024 This will be something I am rooting for in 2024.
New listings data for the last week in the last several years:
2023: 36,897
2022: 31,794
2021: 35,834
Traditionally, one-third of all homes will have price cuts before they sell. When mortgage rates rise and demand decreases, more homes see price cuts. However, even with mortgage rates reaching 8% this year, we trended below 2022 levels the entire time. We are ending the year with almost 1.5% lower mortgage rates and the price cut percentage data below 2022 levels.
Price cut percentages this week over the last few years:
2023: 36%
2022: 40%
2021: 25%
Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield
Considering the fireworks we had two weeks ago, last week was very tame. Not too much movement on the 10-year yield or mortgage rates. Mortgage rates started the week at 6.65% and ended at 6.68%. We had a lot of interesting economic data, especially the PCE inflation data running at roughly 2% growth using the 3- and 6-month averages. However, last week saw little volatility on the 10-year yield. Next we have the final week of trading with some big bond market auctions happening. We might see some decent movement in the bond market next week.
Purchase application data
This will be the last purchase application update for the year as the MBA takes the holiday week off and we will report the holiday period in the new year. Traditionally, I tell people to ignore the last few weeks of the year as most people are getting ready for Christmas and New Years so volume always falls. However, with that said, last week saw a mild decline of 0.6% on a week-to-week basis, making the year-to-date count 23 positive and 24 negative, with two flat prints.
Considering that mortgage rates rose from 5.99% to 8.03% and we might have more positive weekly purchase application prints than negative weekly prints this year speaks volumes. The housing market is working from a low bar in sales, but that roughly 4 million core homebuyers stayed steady in 2023. Total home sales should be near 5 million even with the massive home price gains and higher mortgage rates.
The week ahead: Bond auctions and home prices
It will be a quiet week for economic reports; we will have a few home price index reports and some sizable bond auctions that can potentially move the bond market in a holiday trading week.
I want to wish you a happy holiday and a Merry Christmas. I know it’s been rough for the housing market this year with a deficient volume of existing home sales and loan originations. We should have a better 2024 and my 2024 forecast will come out on Jan. 1, 2024. Until then, enjoy the holidays with your family and remember: the housing market took it on the chin for two years and it bent with the lowest sales levels in history when accounting for the civilian workforce, but it didn’t break, and neither did any of you reading this.
I’m obsessed with a TV show called “Japan Railway Journal.” It’s a half-hour English-language show dedicated to new trains and rail lines opening throughout Japan.
Sounds pretty niche, right? Yet snippets of the show are posted to NHK World-Japan’s YouTube channel, which has over 2.5 million subscribers.
What’s striking about the show, beyond the popularity of cute, pink rail cars, is how much pride the locals take in their railways. Being into trains is a thingin Japan.
Contrast that with the U.S., where not only do we lack a single Hello Kitty-themed train line, but also many of us forget about railways when considering travel options. I’ve been writing about travel for over five years now and have written about rail travel — let me check my notes — zero times.
Jokes aside, this nationwide disinterest in trains could have major consequences as we try to reduce the climate impact of transportation. Air travel contributes 11% of total transportation-related emissions in the U.S., according to a White House fact sheet from September 2021, with the trend only going higher. Yet, there’s currently no clear path to making aviation sustainable.
Contrast that with rail travel, which is one of the least carbon-intensive means of travel, according to a December 2022 report from the Congressional Budget Office.
That means we either have to invent a new transportation modality that burns less carbon, or go back to one invented during the Industrial Revolution: railways.
But boosting train ridership isn’t going to be easy.
How many billions?
There is at least one notable U.S. resident who’s a total rail geek: “Amtrak Joe” Biden, who famously commuted between Delaware and Washington, D.C., by train for years.
Biden recently pushed through billions of dollars in funding for Amtrak as part of a larger infrastructure spending effort. That might sound like a big deal for train travel in this country, until you dig into the details.
The spending only affects the Northeast Corridor train line (yes, a single line). A full $3.8 billion is being spent to rehabilitate a tunnel connecting New York to New Jersey. And not a single Pokemon-themed car is included in the enormous spending package.
Basically, this money is being spent to keep the lights on, rather than to make huge improvements that will improve ridership and — by extension — sustainability.
If the federal government spending billions of dollars on railway infrastructure without having much to show for it sounds familiar, you might remember the Obama administration’s efforts to expand high-speed rail. Over a decade later, the U.S. still lacks a single high-speed line (Amtrak’s Acela doesn’t go fast enough to be considered true “high speed”).
Optimists will point to the many high-speed projects under construction or consideration as evidence that rail travel has a future in the U.S. But history seems to indicate that it will take more than a few measly billion dollars to kick America’s flying habit.
One step forward
Technology is changing and improving our lives at a dizzying rate. Chatbots are almost human. Cars are quickly electrifying. Yet technology hasn’t improved long-distance travel much in recent decades. In fact, it may be regressing. According to a recent article in the New York Times, nearly every aspect of traveling — from flying to driving — actually takes longer now than it did in the 1970s.
Meanwhile, the travel industry faces an enormous climate dilemma. Commercial aviation emits, on its own, as much carbon dioxide as a large industrial nation on a yearly basis. We can’t keep flying this much without burning way more fossil fuels. Something has to give.
Train travel is hardly cutting-edge technology. When the first commercial steam locomotive was introduced, James Madison was president and the U.S. was at war with Britain. Yet it may be one of our best bets for making travel more sustainable.
But the odds are long. Billions of dollars have already been poured into the country’s rail infrastructure, with billions more on the way. Yet no significant changes to where or how quickly we can travel by train are set to come over the horizon.
And we still don’t have a single cute pink train.
How to maximize your rewards
You want a travel credit card that prioritizes what’s important to you. Here are our picks for the best travel credit cards of 2023, including those best for:
The Los Angeles Rams will move their practice facility to Woodland Hills next season as part of a large-scale real estate development planned by owner Stan Kroenke that could help give the car-centric Warner Center district a more urban feel.
The Rams officially announced the long-expected move Tuesday at an outdoor shopping center that Kroenke bought earlier this year as he assembled a 100-acre parcel for future development that will include a new headquarters for the Rams.
The move will center the Rams, now based in the city of Agoura Hills, in Los Angeles’ Woodland Hills neighborhood. The team plays at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood on game days, but spends most of the year at its headquarters and practice facilities.
“It’s important for us to have a foothold in L.A.,” said Kevin Demoff, chief operating officer of the Rams.
Advertisement
A temporary practice facility similar to the one the team now uses at California Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks will be built on what is now a parking lot next to an unoccupied office tower the Kroenke Group bought in Warner Center in 2022.
Kroenke plans to build a more permanent and expansive training facility and team headquarters on the site in the future, part of what is expected to be a sprawling mixed-use complex that may include stores, restaurants, hotels and residences.
Work will start shortly on the temporary football compound at Erwin Street and Canoga Avenue, Demoff said. Asphalt and two one-story buildings will be removed to make way for two practice fields and a network of temporary modular trailers that will be similar to the setup the team uses at Cal Lutheran.
The trailers will include office space and meeting rooms for coaches, players, scouts and staff, along with a weight room, a training room, a locker room, a media room and a meal room.
City Councilman Bob Blumenfield called the facility “a great use that brings a lot of value” to the neighborhood and “not much traffic.”
The 13-story tower on the site that was formerly home to health insurer Anthem Inc. may be part of the future mixed-use campus or could be eventually razed to make way for other uses.
Advertisement
Kroenke Group is working on a new land-use design for the site that also includes the former Woodland Hills Promenade, a largely inactive shopping center built in 1973, and the thriving outdoor mall Topanga Village built next to the Promenade in 2015. The move was announced at the Village, which will remain a cornerstone of the Kroenke complex that could take many years to complete.
Los Angeles city officials are encouraging dense mixed-use development in the Warner Center neighborhood that could include new housing, offices, shops, restaurants, hotel rooms and entertainment venues.
The planned building boom may help Warner Center finally achieve its original purpose. In the early 1970s, planners decided that the west San Fernando Valley land, once the site of movie mogul Harry Warner’s horse ranch, should be turned into a “downtown” for the Valley.
As it developed, however, Warner Center bore only passing resemblance to the densely built urban districts people associate with that word.
Today, the neighborhood is mostly a mix of office towers that jut up from a sea of cookie-cutter, low-slung office buildings served by acres of surface parking lots. Apartments and stores are mostly isolated in discrete blocks, and the whole expanse is cleaved by wide, fast-moving streets that flow to freeways.
Kroenke’s $325-million purchase of the Village in January further signaled the billionaire businessman’s intention to build a sports-centric development like the one around SoFi Stadium in Inglewood.
In Inglewood, Kroenke controls nearly 300 acres surrounding SoFi Stadium, in what was formerly the Hollywood Park horse racing venue. When the Inglewood complex is completed, it will be 3½ times the size of Disneyland and contain a performance venue, hotel, stores, restaurants, offices, homes and a lake with waterfalls.
With the additional 100 acres in Woodland Hills, Kroenke is now one of the largest real estate developers in the Los Angeles region, Demoff said. His company could build and operate as much as 7 million square feet of property in Woodland Hills as envisioned under the city’s Warner Center 2035 Specific Plan.
“Stan and everybody else is a believer in the potential of Warner Center,” Demoff said. “Everything keeps growing here.”
The Kroenke Group owns and operates shopping centers in 39 states with a combined total of 40 million square feet, the company said.
Embarking on the journey of purchasing a home in the Badger State is an adventure filled with anticipation and, often, a measure of uncertainty. Central to this process is the pivotal step of a Wisconsin home inspection—an essential safeguard that delves beneath the property’s surface, ensuring that your future haven is as sound in structure as it is inviting in appearance. This Redfin article will explore the ins and outs of Wisconsin home inspections, covering everything from their importance to specialized inspections, requirements, and costs. So whether you’re buying a home in Madison or a home in Green Bay, keep reading to learn everything you need to know about getting a home inspection in Wisconsin.
Why should you get a home inspection in Wisconsin?
Buying a home is a big investment, and getting a home inspection is a crucial step in protecting that investment. A professional home inspector will thoroughly assess the property, identifying any hidden issues, structural concerns, electrical and plumbing problems, and other potential red flags that may be missed during a casual walkthrough. This complete examination provides you with valuable insights, negotiation leverage, and peace of mind, ensuring you make an informed and confident decision about your new home.
“In Wisconsin, a home inspection is a smart step for buyers and sellers alike,” says Patrik Neuwirth of Inspect Karma, a Milwaukee-based home inspector. “It serves as a critical safeguard, uncovering potential issues from seasonal wear due to the state’s harsh winters and humid summers, to more hidden and costly problems. An inspection provides transparency and confidence, ensuring that one of life’s biggest investments is sound and secure.”
Are there any specialized inspections that Wisconsin buyers should consider?
While a standard home inspection covers the fundamentals, Wisconsin buyers should be aware of specialized inspections tailored to specific concerns. These include radon testing, especially in areas with elevated radon levels, mold inspections for properties prone to mold growth, lead paint assessments in older homes, and well and septic inspections in rural areas with these systems. These specialized inspections are key for ensuring your home is safe and free from potential hazards.
1st Choice Inspection in Milwaukee emphasizes the importance of sewer drain scoping, especially for houses built before the 1970s because tree roots can cause issues.
Are home inspections required in Wisconsin?
In Wisconsin, home inspections are not mandatory, but they come highly recommended for all homebuyers. While not required by law, certain lenders may impose inspection requirements as part of the mortgage approval process, such as pest inspections or appraisals. It’s important to note that despite the lack of mandatory inspections, opting for a home inspection is a wise and cost-effective choice.
Donn Anderson of Anderson Home Inspections advises that although inspections aren’t required in the state, they are more than worth the cost. It’s not uncommon for homebuyers to incur thousands of dollars in surprise expenses because they decided against getting a home inspection.
How much does a home inspection cost in Wisconsin?
The cost of a home inspection in Wisconsin can vary based on several factors, including the property’s size, age, location, and the scope of the inspection. On average, you can expect to pay between $300 and $500, with specialized inspections incurring additional expenses. While it may seem like just another added cost, the investment is well worth the peace of mind and potential long-term savings it provides.
Can you sell a house in Wisconsin without an inspection?
Wisconsin does not require sellers to conduct a pre-listing inspection, but many opt for this proactive approach. A pre-listing inspection can help find and address issues upfront, making the selling process smoother and more attractive to potential buyers. While not mandatory, it’s a strategic move for sellers looking to increase their home’s market appeal.
Wisconsin home inspection: the bottom line
In the world of real estate, knowledge is power. A home inspection in Wisconsin is your key to making an informed decision when purchasing a property. It provides you with insights into the home’s condition, negotiation power, and peace of mind, ensuring that you are investing in a safe and sound property. Regardless of where in the state you’re looking to move, a home inspection is a wise investment in your future.