Market trends in the past decade The white paper presented the differences between 2013 and 2023. Mortgage rates were just 3.98% back in 2013 and are sitting at 7.21% year to date. The number of new single-family homes completed in 2013 was 569,000 compared to more than one million in 2023 YTD. The average price … [Read more…]
In a world full of mass-produced goods and cookie-cutter designs, DIY (Do-It-Yourself) shines differently. It’s a creative craft that lets you make stuff on your own. Home is everyone’s safe place, and having things you’ve made there adds something extra special. But sometimes, people’s ideas can get so wild that their creations become a bit silly. Particularly during 2010, there was a phase when anything created through DIY was thought to be cool and aesthetic.
For example, a candlestick made out of tuna cans is bound to raise some eyebrows. Just imagine, it’s a rainy day, the tea lights are flickering, and the smell of gently warmed tuna lingers around you… it’s enough to make any guest want to leave early!
We’ve curated a collection of these laughter-inducing DIY creations that people have come up with. Join us as we take a look inside and cringe. Upvote the pics that you couldn’t believe are true.
Source: boredpanda.com
Whoa, have you seen what just happened to interest rates!?
Suddenly, after at least fourteen years of our financial world being mostly the same, somebody flipped over the table and now things are quite different.
Interest rates, which have been gliding along at close to zero since before the Dawn of Mustachianism in 2011, have suddenly shot back up to 20-year highs.
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Which brings up a few questions about whether we need to worry, or do anything about this new development.
These questions are on everybody’s mind these days, and I’ve been ruminating on them myself. But while I’ve seen a lot of play-by-play stories about each little interest rate increase in the financial newspapers, none of them seem to get into the important part, which is,
“Yeah, interest rates are way up, but what should I do about it?”
So let’s talk about strategy.
Why Is This Happening, and What Got Us Here?
Interest rates are like a giant gas pedal that revs the engine of our economy, with the polished black dress shoe of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pressed upon it.
For most of the past two decades, Jerome’s team and their predecessors have kept the pedal to the metal, firing a highly combustible stream of easy money into the system in the form of near-zero rates. This made mortgages more affordable, so everyone stretched to buy houses, which drove demand for new construction.
It also had a similar effect on business investment: borrowed money and venture capital was cheap, so lots of entrepreneurs borrowed lots of money and started new companies. These companies then rented offices and built factories and hired employees – who circled back to buy more houses, cars, fridges, iPhones, and all the other luxurious amenities of modern life.
This was a great party and it led to lots of good things, because we had two decades of prosperity, growth, raising our children, inventing new things and all the other good things that happen in a successful rich country economy.
Until it went too far and we ended up with too much money chasing too few goods – especially houses. That led to a trend of unacceptably fast Inflation, which we already covered in a recent article.
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So eventually, Jay-P noticed this and eased his foot back off of the Easy Money Gas Pedal. And of course when interest rates get jacked up, almost everything else in the economy slows down.
And that’s what is happening right now: mortgages are suddenly way more expensive, so people are putting off their plans to buy houses. Companies find that borrowing money is costly, so they are scaling back their plans to build new factories, and cutting back on their hiring. Facebook laid off 10,000 people and Amazon shed 27,000.
We even had a miniature banking crisis where some significant mid-sized banks folded and gave the financial world fears that a much bigger set of dominoes would fall.
All of these things sound kinda bad, and if you make the mistake of checking the news, you’ll see there is a big dumb battle raging as usual on every media outlet. Leftists, Right-wingers, and anarchists all have a different take on it:
The one thing all sides seem to agree on is that we are “experiencing hard economic times” and that “the country is headed in the wrong way”.
Which, ironically, is completely wrong as well – our unemployment rate has dropped to 50-year lows and the economy is at the absolute best it has ever been, a surprise to even the most grounded economists.
The reality? We’re just putting the lid back onto the ice cream carton until the economy can digest all the sugar it just wolfed down. This is normal, it happens every decade or two and it’s no big deal.
Okay, but should I take my money out of the stock market because it’s going to crash?
This answer never changes, so you’ll see it every time we talk about stock investing: Holy Shit NO!!!
The stock market always goes up in the long run, although with plenty of unpredictable bumps along the way. Since you can’t predict those bumps until after they happen, there is no point in trying to dance in and out of it.
But since we do have the benefit of hindsight, there are a few things that have changed slightly: From its peak at the beginning of 2022 until right now (August 2023 as I write this), the overall US market is down about 10%. Or to view it another way, it is roughly flat since June 2021, so we’ve seen two years with no gains aside from total dividends of about 3%.
Since the future is always the same, unknowable thing, this means I am about 10% more excited about buying my monthly slice of index funds today than it was at the peak.
Should I start putting money into savings accounts instead because they are paying 4.5%?
This is a slightly trickier question, because in theory we should invest in a logical, unbiased way into the thing with the highest expected return over time.
When interest rates were under 1%, this was an easy decision: stocks will always return far more than 1% over time – consider the fact that the annual dividend payments alone are 1.5%!
But there has to be some interest rate at which you’d be willing to stop buying stocks and prefer to just stash it into the stable, rewarding environment of a money market fund or long-term bonds or something else similar. Right now, if a reputable bank offered me, say, 12% I would probably just start loading up.
But remember that the stock market is also currently running a 10% off sale. When the market eventually reawakens and starts setting new highs (which it will someday), any shares I buy right now will be worth 10% more. And then will continue going up from there. Which quickly becomes an even bigger number than 12%.
In other words, the cheaper the stocks get, the more excited we should be about buying them rather than chasing high interest rates.
As you can see, there is no easy answer here, but I have taken a middle ground:
What if I want to Buy a House?
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For most of us, the biggest thing that interest rates affect is our decisions around buying and selling houses. Financing a home with a mortgage is suddenly way more expensive, any potential rental house investments are suddenly far less profitable, and keeping our old house with a locked-in 3% mortgage is suddenly far more tempting.
Consider these shocking changes just over the past two years as typical rates have gone from about 3% to 7.5%.
Assuming a buyer comes up with the average 10% down payment:
This all sounds kind of bleak, but unfortunately it’s the way things are supposed to work – the tough medicine of higher interest rates is supposed to make the following things happen:
The net effect of all this is that prices should stop going up, and ideally fall back down in many areas.
When Will House Prices Go Back Down?
This is a tricky one because the real “value” of a house depends entirely on supply and demand. The right price is whatever you can sell it for. However, there are a few fundamentals which influence this price over the long run because they determine the supply of housing.
The first item (construction cost) is pretty interesting because it is subject to the magic of technological progress. Just as TVs and computers get cheaper over time, house components get cheaper too as things like computerized manufacturing and global trade make us more efficient. I remember paying $600 for a fancy-at-the-time undermount sink and $400 for a faucet for my first kitchen remodel in the year 2001. Today, you can get a nicer sink on Amazon for about $250 and the faucet is a flat hundred. Similarly, nailguns and cordless tools and easy-to-install PEX plumbing make the process of building faster and easier than ever.
On the other hand, the last item (bullshit restrictions) has been very inflationary in recent times. I’ve noticed that every year another layer of red tape and complicated codes and onerous zoning and approval processes gets layered into the local book of rules, and as a result I just gave up on building new houses because it wasn’t worth the hassle. Other builders with more patience will continue to plow through the murk, but they will have less competition, fewer permits will be granted, and thus the shortage of housing will continue to grow, which raises prices on average.
Thankfully, every city is different and some have chosen to make it easier to build new houses rather than more difficult. Even better, places like Tempe Arizona are allowing good housing to be built around people rather than cars, which is even more affordable to construct.
But overall, since overall US house prices adjusted for inflation are just about at an all-time high, I think there’s a chance that they might ease back down another 25% (to 2020 levels). But who knows: my guess could prove totally wrong, or the “fall” could just come in the form of flat prices for a decade that don’t keep up with inflation, meaning that they just feel 25% cheaper relative to our higher future salaries.
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When Will Interest Rates Go Back Down?
The funny part about our current “high” interest rates is that they are not actually high at all. They’re right around average.So they might not go down at all for a long time.
Remember that graph at the beginning of this article? I deliberately cropped it to show only the years since 2009 – the long recent period of low interest rates. But if you zoom out to cover the last seventy years instead, you can see that we’re still in a very normal range.
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But a better answer is this one: Interest rates will go down whenever Jerome Powell or one of his successors determines that our economy is slowing down too much and needs another hit from the gas pedal. In other words, whenever we start to slip into a genuine recession.
In order to do that however, we need to see low inflation, growing unemployment, and other signs of an economy that’s not too hot. And right now, those things keep not showing up in the weekly economic data.
You can get one reasonable prediction of the future of interest rates by looking at something called the US Treasury Yield Curve. It typically looks like this:
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What the graph is telling you is that as a lender you get a bigger reward in exchange for locking up your money for a longer time period. And way back in 2018, the people who make these loans expected that interest rates would average about 3.0 percent over the next 30 years.
Today, we have a very strange opposite yield curve:
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If you want to lend money for a year or less, you’ll be rewarded with a juicy 5.4 percent interest rate. But for two years, the rate drops to 4.92%. And then ten-year bond pays only 4.05 percent.
This situation is weird, and it’s called an inverted yield curve. And what it means is that the buyers of bonds currently believe that interest rates will almost certainly drop in the future – starting a little over a year from now.
And if you recall our earlier discussion about why interest rates drop, this means that investors are forecasting an economic slowdown in the fairly near future. And their intuition in this department has been pretty good: an inverted yield curve like this has only happened 11 times in the past 75 years, and in ten of those cases it accurately predicted a recession.
So the short answer is: nobody really knows, but we’ll probably see interest rates start to drop within 18-24 months, and the event may be accompanied by some sort of recession as well.
The Ultimate Interest Rate Strategy Hack
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I like to read and write about all this stuff because I’m still a finance nerd at heart. But when it comes down to it, interest rates don’t really affect long-retired people like many of us MMM readers, because we are mostly done with borrowing. I like the simplicity of owning just one house and one car, mortgage-free.
With the current overheated housing market here in Colorado, I’m not tempted to even look at other properties, but someday that may change. And the great thing about having actual savings rather than just a high income that lets you qualify for a loan, is that you can be ready to pounce on a good deal on short notice.
Maybe the entire housing market will go on sale as we saw in the early 2010s, or perhaps just one perfect property in the mountains will come up at the right time. The point is that when you have enough cash to buy the thing you want, the interest rates that other people are charging don’t matter. It’s a nice position of strength instead of stress. And you can still decide to take out a mortgage if you do find the rates are worthwhile for your own goals.
So to tie a bow on this whole lesson: keep your lifestyle lean and happy and don’t lose too much sweat over today’s interest rates or house prices. They will probably both come down over time, but those things aren’t in your control. Much more important are your own choices about earning, saving, healthy living and where you choose to live.
With these big sails of your life properly in place and pulling you ahead, the smaller issues of interest rates and whatever else they write about in the financial news will gradually shrink down to become just ripples on the surface of the lake.
In the comments: what have you been thinking about interest rates recently? Have they changed your decisions, increased, or perhaps even decreased your stress levels around money and housing?
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* Photo credit: Mr. Money Mustache, and Rustoleum Ultra Cover semi gloss black spraypaint. I originally polled some local friends to see if anyone owned dress shoes and a suit so I could get this picture, with no luck. So I painted up my old semi-dressy shoes and found some clean-ish black socks and pants and vacuumed out my car a bit before taking this picture. I’m kinda proud of the results and it saved me from hiring Jerome Powell himself for the shoot.
Source: mrmoneymustache.com
By Prof. Viral V. Acharya, C.V. Starr Professor of Economics, Department of Finance, New York University Stern School of Business (NYU-Stern), and Satish Mansukhani, Managing Director, Investment Strategy, Rithm Capital
Since the onset of the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) monetary tightening in 2022, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the United States (US) has gapped out to 7 percent. Around 300 basis points (bps) at present above the 10-year US Treasury yield (see Figure 1), this spread has historically been stable at around 200 bps; this was the case even during the pre-pandemic interest-rate hikes (2016-19) and quantitative tightening (QT, 2017-20) episodes.
Why is this time different?
We explain below that the current break from this trend is caused critically by the interplay of the Fed’s and domestic banks’ balance sheets. Changes in the risk appetites of institutional investors (bank and non-bank) and the profitability considerations of mortgage lenders have combined with this interplay to produce an unprecedentedly fast and amplified passthrough of monetary tightening to mortgage rates.
Deconstructing the 30-year mortgage rate
In addition to the 10-year Treasury yield, the 30-year primary mortgage rate serves as a commonly cited benchmark for the US economy and financial markets. Two contributors drive the spread between this mortgage rate and the Treasury yield.
The first contributor is the yield offered on the benchmark mortgage-backed securities (MBS) issued by government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—the so-called “agency MBS basis”. This basis reflects the risk appetites of institutional investors to absorb or “warehouse” mortgage interest-rate risks on their balance sheets.
The second contributor is the profitability margin for mortgage lenders, known as the “primary-secondary spread”. It captures not only the market power of lenders in mortgage markets but also the banking sector’s balance-sheet constraints in intermediating for the real economy.
Consider, in turn, the 10-year Treasury yields and each of these contributors to the mortgage spread.
Punch #1: Higher 10-year US Treasury yields, driven up by real rates
Excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus throughout the pandemic combined with supply-side shocks to induce a surge in inflation since 2021. Until the last few months, this bout of inflation appeared rather unrelenting. In response, the Fed has tightened its monetary policy aggressively to cool inflation and the economy, and the 10-year Treasury yields, which were just 50 bps in 2020, are now close to 4 percent, a full 350 bps higher.
Viewed through another lens, the 10-year real rate has risen from a pandemic low of negative 100 bps to a post-GFC (Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08) high of 150 bps. Immediately before the pandemic, and even during the rate-hike and QT episodes of the mid-2010s, this real rate stood at barely 50 bps. The overall rise in real rates has also lifted mortgage rates.
Punch #2: A wider agency MBS basis, driven by higher volatility and a reversal in technicals
The agency MBS basis can be considered the market price of the unique option presented to US borrowers to refinance their mortgages or lock in attractive fixed rates (as is the case currently). The higher the volatility and the wider the outlook for the range of interest rates, the higher the price of this option. Compared to the mid-2010s’ rate hikes and QT, agency MBS spreads are 60 to 80 bps wider today.
For about 12 months after the onset of monetary tightening in March 2022, the 30-day rolling correlation of the agency MBS basis to interest-rate volatility (MOVE Index) remained high, ranging from 60 to 80 percent (that the two series were highly correlated until March 2023 can be seen in Figure 2).
However, the “technicals” of the MBS market today have shifted dramatically, with the Fed and domestic banks as the largest holders of this asset class. A key US bank dynamic has emerged since March 2023, given the collapses of three regional banks: Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), First Republic Bank and Signature Bank. In their wake, the agency MBS basis’s correlation to rate volatility has dipped, as seen by the rising agency MBS basis and declining MOVE Index. In contrast, the correlation of basis to the inverse of the stock valuation of regional banks has risen (again, see the individual series in Figure 2), reaching a peak of 35 percent in May 2023, marking the low in the regional bank index and simultaneously a high in the basis.
Punch #3: Wider mortgage-lender margins, driven by low volumes and high volatility
Turning to mortgage-lender margins, mortgage lending is a volume business in terms of the profits it generates for lenders and largely depends on refinancing transactions. Today’s high mortgage rates place a significant disincentive in the economics of the majority of US borrowers who have “locked in” at post-pandemic ultra-low rates, shriveling down lender volumes to mostly purchase transactions. The resulting low volume of home sales is thus translating into high competition among mortgage lenders.
High competition suggests banks should be willing to tighten margins. However, lender margins are modestly higher today than in the mid-2010s’ rate-hike and QT episodes, ranging back then between 90 and 100 bps compared to the present 110 and 120 bps. A key factor driving this margin wider is (again!) higher rate volatility, which increases the pipeline hedging costs of mortgage lenders during the period they commit to making a loan to closing and eventually pooling the loan into an MBS through securitization. This balance-sheet effect seems to have swamped the competitive effect.
Amplifying it all: banks’ and the Fed’s balance sheets moving in tandem
An additional factor has, however, made the confluence of these three effects even more potent.
The GFC, notably the distress in the housing and mortgage sectors, depleted both the capital and liquidity of banks, the largest mortgage lenders then. The nature of the post-GFC regulations and rules, notably the Dodd-Frank Act (Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act), has made it costlier for banks to step into mortgages and MBS. In fact, a number of banks stepped away altogether from mortgage lending and servicing. The Fed filled this gap with some of its post-GFC quantitative-easing (QE) programs to support the mortgage and housing sectors. This backdrop led to relatively low levels of stable growth in the bank ownership of mortgages and MBS leading into the mid-2010s (see Figure 3).
However, as the Fed then halted QE and eventually embarked on QT, other rules, especially the favorable treatment of agency MBS as “high-quality liquid assets” in calculating the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR), led to a rise in the banks’ demands for MBS. This helped stabilize the MBS sector. And although banks made some (unrecognized) losses on their securities holdings by the end of the tightening cycle, cumulatively, the losses remained in aggregate below $75 billion.
Progression from this period into the pandemic saw the balance-sheet holdings of banks and the Fed paralleling (again, see Figure 3). The substantial stimulus led to an abundance of deposits (insured and uninsured) and low-yielding reserves at banks—but due to low demand in 2020, also a relative absence of sufficiently higher-yielding corporate loans in which to invest. The ultra-low rates and flat yield curve thus led to a search for yields, driving banks to buy Treasuries and agency MBS instead.
The post-pandemic monetary tightening of 2022 thus started with a far greater concentration of liquid-asset holdings in the hands of two large, correlated sets of balance sheets—namely, the Fed’s and the banks’. At present, new MBS issuances essentially have demand from neither, implying that the agency MBS basis is driven almost entirely by the risk appetites of non-bank institutional investors. As these investors are far more prone to rollover risks from heightened volatility, they demand greater risk premiums than banks typically would. This has significantly amplified the triple punch delivered to mortgage rates by monetary tightening.
What’s next?
An important lesson is that the unprecedented scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus during the pandemic worked through the commercial-banking system, creating the path dependency in how monetary tightening is now playing out, especially for mortgage markets.
Paradoxically, as mortgage rates rise, the willingness of labor in the US to adjust to sectoral demands lessens as the lock-in effects of ultra-low mortgage rates keep households from moving. This, in turn, keeps labor markets tight, wages high and inflation stubborn.
The Fed is thus caught between a rock and a hard place, with the demand- and supply-side effects of its tightening working in opposite directions. Which way will the pendulum swing? It is hard to know, but this may precisely be why interest-rate volatility has remained high.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Satish Mansukhani is the Managing Director, Investment Strategy, at Rithm Capital, a financial-services firm headquartered in New York City. In his prior roles as a sell-side strategist at Bank of America, Credit Suisse and Bear Stearns, Satish was perennially ranked for his work by Institutional Investor magazine.
Source: internationalbanker.com
Musical preferences are subjective and vary from person to person, but there are a few specific genres such as country, rap, and metal which are pretty commonly disliked. These genres are criticized for being overly simplistic, repetitive, or aggressive; and though nobody likes every genre of musuci, here are some of the least-liked musical styles our friends on Reddit love to hate.
Country rap is a music genre that blends elements of country and hip-hop/rap music. But despite the innovation, many people find the combination of traditional country with modern hip-hop and rap vocals a little too jarring.
One Redditor expressed displeasure by saying, “…Country Rap, hell no. Sounds like Frat Boy manufactured [stuff] that you can tell an exec was behind. Faker than every reality TV show. That would be like J Cole picking up a guitar or Kendrick moving down to Alabama. And honestly, County fans deserve better.”
Cloud rap is characteristically dreamlike, and relies heavily on ambient synthesizers, reverb, and delay effects. The lyrics focus on introspective themes, which can seem self-indulgent or lacking substance. The genre’s experimental nature and lack of emphasis on beats and bass lines may also not appeal to all listeners. Ultimately, it’s just a very unique and specific genre.
Black metal is a subgenre of heavy metal music known for its aggressive and fast-paced sound, distorted guitars, and shrieking vocals. It’s often unsettling with its themes of Satanism and nihilism. Black metal has faced criticism for association with things like church burnings. Despite this, black metal still has a dedicated following of fans who appreciate its raw and intense sound, provocative lyrics, and unapologetic attitude. Its influence on other subgenres of metal remains evident, however.
One Redditor said, “Black metal. I like death metal, and regular old metal, but the bit of black metal I’ve heard just sounds like a bunch of dudes trying to roleplay as Slytherin or something.”
Mumble rap is a subgenre of hip hop that emerged in the mid-2010s, known for its heavy use of autotune and repetition, resulting in indistinct lyrics. Its lyrics often focus on materialism, drug use, and hedonism. While some appreciate its catchy beats and melody, others criticize it for lacking substance and creativity. Critics argue that mumble rap lacks the depth and artistic complexity that hip hop is known for, with repetitive lyrics and generic sounds.
Jazz is a music genre that originated in Southern US African American communities in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. It’s distinguished by improvisation and syncopated rhythms. Jazz has evolved with the influence of cultural and social movements, and its history is rich with diverse styles and artists. Some find its slower pace and unconventional instrumentation challenging, but jazz has been incorporated into other genres with great success. While it’s important to recognize the cultural significance of jazz music, it’s just not for everybody.
One Redditor said, “Jazz. Like the regular jazz. Lounge jazz, I don’t mind, but the regular stuff is just unorganised mess to me, and I’d describe it as an audible panic attack.”
Reggae originated in Jamaica in the late 1960s. It is characterized by a strong rhythm from bass, drums, and guitar, along with the prominent use of an off-beat rhythm. Reggae lyrics often include social and political issues and messages of love and spirituality. Many genres, including Jamaican mento and ska and American R&B and soul have influenced reggae.
Reggae music suffered a lull due to a lack of promotion, lack of support, and a lot of US and UK artists keep trying to imitate the genre.
One Redditor said, “Reggae. Worked at a sandwich deli for a summer, and that is all they would listen to. Now I am conditioned to get angry whenever I hear that accent.”
While nursery rhymes have been a staple of early childhood education and entertainment for centuries, they are not universally beloved. Some people find the repetitive nature of nursery rhymes tedious or the simple melodies and lyrics unappealing. Despite their historical and cultural significance, nursery rhymes are not immune to criticism or dislike. It is important to remember that nursery rhymes have brought joy and education to countless children and continue to be a valuable resource for early childhood development.
Acapella music is a style of vocal music that relies solely on human voices to create melodies, harmonies, and rhythm. It has a long history dating back to ancient religious chanting and folk music traditions and has gained popularity in recent years with the rise of acapella groups and competitions. Despite its unique sound and style, some people may not appreciate acapella music. Nonetheless, acapella music remains a valuable and innovative form of vocal music that continues to captivate audiences around the world.
The dislike of music genres is subjective and varies from person to person. Despite criticism and personal preference, all genres have their unique cultural significance and lasting impact.
Are you looking for a movie night with a twist? Look no further than these Reddit-voted top ten films where women take on the destructive bad guy role.
10 Crazy Good Movies Where Women Are the Bad Guys
Sometimes, a cover of a song ends up doing far better than the original. Some covers are so good that we didn’t even realize the cover version wasn’t actually the original.
15 Cover Songs that are Better than the Original
People will always have preferences and something to say about celebrities. What you might love may not be the same for others. Whether it’s about their past behaviors, legal issues, or feuds with other celebrities, here is a list of celebrities people just cannot stand.
10 Celebrities Who Are Universally Disliked
Sometimes, we just love to watch a favorite vampire movie; one of the ones that never get old. It piques our imagination with the unknown, story of two teenagers fighting for their love, the incredible and creepy scenes, and the bloodsucking classics.
11 Vampire Movies That Will Leave You Yearning for More
Every once in a while, a movie sequel or remake surpasses the original film. After polling the internet, “Name a single movie where the sequel or remake was better than the original?” Here are the top-voted responses.
25 Extraordinary Sequels and Remakes That Outshine the Originals
Source: financequickfix.com
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It’s pricey to borrow to buy a business, car or home these days. Interest rates are expected to fall in coming years — how much is up for debate.
Dr. Alice Mills was thinking of selling her veterinary practice in Lexington, Ky., this year, but she decided to put the move off because she worried that it would be difficult to sell in an era of rising interest rates.
For more audio journalism and storytelling, download New York Times Audio, a new iOS app available for news subscribers.
“In a year, I think that there’s going to be less anxiety about the interest rates, and I’m hoping that they’re going to go down,” Dr. Mills, 69, said. “I have to put my faith in the fact that the practice will sell.”
Dr. Mills is one of many Americans anxiously wondering what comes next for borrowing costs — and the answer is hard to guess.
up sharply from 2.7 percent at the end of 2020. That is the result of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to cool the economy.
The central bank has lifted its policy interest rate to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent — the highest level in 22 years — which has trickled out to increase borrowing costs across the economy. The goal is to deter demand and force sellers to stop raising prices so much, slowing inflation.
But nearly a year and a half into the effort, the Fed is at or near the end of its rate increases. Officials have projected just one more in 2023, by a quarter of a point, and the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John C. Williams, said in an interview that he didn’t see a need for more than that.
“We’re pretty close to what a peak rate would be, and the question will really be — once we have a good understanding of that — how long will we need to keep policy in a restrictive stance, and what does that mean?” Mr. Williams said on Aug. 2.
The economy is approaching a pivot point, one that has many consumers wondering when rates will come back down, how quickly and how much.
several years before rates return to a level between 2 and 3 percent, like their peak in the years before the pandemic. Officials do not forecast a return to near zero, like the setting that allowed mortgage rates to sink so low in 2020.
That’s a sign of optimism: Rock-bottom rates are seen as necessary only when the economy is in bad shape and needs to be resuscitated.
In fact, some economists outside the Fed think that borrowing costs might remain higher than they were in the 2010s. The reason is that what has long been known as the neutral rate — the point at which the economy is not being stimulated or depressed — may have risen. That means today’s economy may be capable of chugging along with a higher interest rate than it could previously handle.
A few big changes could have caused such a shift by increasing the demand for borrowed money, which props up borrowing costs. Among them, the government has piled on more debt in recent years, businesses are shifting toward more domestic manufacturing — potentially increasing demand for factories and other infrastructure — and climate change is spurring a need for green investments.
could hover around 4 percent, while those who expect them to be lower see something more in the range of 2 to 3 percent, said Joseph Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
That is because some of the factors that have pushed rates down in recent years persist — and could intensify.
“Several of the explanations for the decline in long-term interest rates before the pandemic are still with us,” explained Lukasz Rachel, an economist at University College London, citing things like an aging population and low birthrates.
Jeanna Smialek writes about the Federal Reserve and the economy for The Times. She previously covered economics at Bloomberg News. More about Jeanna Smialek
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Source: nytimes.com
A new housing development built along a canal near the Mokelumne River is viewed on May 22, 2023, near Stockton, California.
George Rose | Getty Images
Lawrence Yun has as big a stake in the Federal Reserve’s moves as any economist: As the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, his industry is a target of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation with higher interest rates.
But the housing’s industry’s bigger problem right now may be the bond market, and specifically, spreads between treasuries and mortgage rates that suggests homebuyers’ economic challenges may not decline even as the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its interest-rate hikes. There is a historically-wide difference between the 10-year treasury bond, a benchmark for pricing mortgages, and the actual price of an average 30-year loan. Usually around 1.75 percentage points, and as low as 1.3 in 2021, the so-called mortgage spread is hovering at more than 3 percentage points now. And that is propping up mortgage rates, keeping home owners from selling their homes and buying nicer ones, and hurting first-time buyers, Yun said.
“Buyers know 3.5% mortgages aren’t coming back,” Yun said. “So 5.5% would bring out buyers.”
Logically, mortgage spreads should move down sharply from here, thanks to the recent spate of good economic news, and bring relief to home buyers who have seen affordability deteriorate sharply since 2020.
Traditionally, spreads widen when markets fear a recession. They spiked before the financial crisis of 2008, for example. Collapsing spreads help revive housing activity after a recession arrives, or can prop up the housing market in a crisis, which happened in 2021 as the Covid pandemic threatened an economic crash. But as the Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022, mortgage rates rose even faster than bond yields.
The case for wide spreads this past year was two-fold. Partly, it was rooted in the idea that the 10-year treasury yield would rise as the Fed hiked more. Fear of a 2023 recession also contributed — evidenced by a sharp widening of spreads in March, after Silicon Valley Bank failed.
Now, both cases are evaporating. Last week’s inflation report showed consumer prices rose just less than 3% for the 12 months ending in June, down from more than 9% a year earlier. Low inflation should persist into the fall, because the government’s measure of housing inflation lags private market data that has been moving lower since last summer. The consumer price index is expected to only start to reflect the now year-old dip in rents and home prices in parts of the U.S. by year-end.
At the same time, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s tracking estimate of second-quarter economic growth now sits at 2.3% belying predictions of an early-2023 recession that were widespread.
The recent inflation news pushed the 10-year treasury lower, touching 3.76% after reaching 4.09% earlier in July. Mortgage rates also dropped, to 6.89% last Friday from a recent peak of 7.22%, according to Mortgage News Daily. But the spread between the two was little changed.
If the spread between 10-year bonds and mortgages were to revert to normal, it would make a huge difference in monthly payments for home buyers.
On a $500,000 mortgage, for example, a 7% interest rate spits out a monthly payment of $3,327, plus taxes and insurance. That falls to $2,934 if rates go to 5.8%, which would represent a 2 percentage-point gap between treasuries and mortgage rates, and to $2,777 with mortgages at a spread of 1.5 percentage points — back within the range of the long-term average, 1.75 points.
The closing of spreads alone would save that borrower $6,600 a year in payments. A $500,000 loan would typically require about $150,000 in pretax annual income.
“People consider changing their cable company for $30 a month,” Yun said. “$600 a month is a big number.”
A narrowing of spreads last fall, which reversed in February and March, helped stabilize a falling real estate market, according to Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst for HousingWire in Irvine, Calif.
But bond market and housing experts are skeptical of whether the spreads will narrow, and mortgage rates fall, as fast as homebuyers might like.
The Fed is widely expected to raise the Fed funds rate at its meeting on July 25-26, with futures prices implying a 96.1% chance of a quarter-point increase, according to the CME Group Fedwatch Tool. That will support Treasury yields, at least in theory.
More than that, the Fed has stopped buying up mortgage securities as the bonds on its balance sheet mature. That depresses the price mortgages can command in secondary markets or from federally-backed loan buyers like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and puts pressure on lenders to demand wider spreads from borrowers, said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at U.S. Bank in Seattle.
Banks may also seek bigger spreads on loans made in the next few months because of the risk the mortgages will be repaid quickly when borrowers refinance next year as rates fall, he added.
“One might attribute it to quantitative tightening,” Haworth said. “The Fed is a seller.”
Indeed, the Fed has signaled that it doesn’t want mortgage rates to fall soon, according to Mohtashami, citing comments made by Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank president Neel Kashkari who said in February that lower rates and a hotter market would “make our job harder” in controlling inflation.
“I assumed the spreads would stay high until the Fed cried Uncle and started cutting rates,” Mohtashami said. “If the banking crisis hadn’t happened in March, they would be lower.”
But markets have defied the Fed before, as recently as this week, when the 10-year Treasury yield dropped even as traders remain convinced the central bank will hike rates at least once more.
If the drop in inflation is sustained — a big if — and rising consumer confidence pushes any recession further into the future, markets are likely to reset interest rates with or without the central bank.
The Fed will raise rates at least once more, but the second rate increase many investors have expected may be delayed or canceled if inflation stays tame, said Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae. That would let last week’s modest dip in mortgage rates continue, even though Fannie doesn’t expect the central bank to cut interest rates until at least early next year, he said.
Fannie Mae’s forecast calls for rates to be near current levels through 2023. But the Mortgage Bankers Association of America sees the 30-year rate dipping to 5.2 percent next year.
Banks’ reaction to changing spreads may be tricky to predict, Duncan said. On the one hand, banks would have to watch out for more prepayments if interest rates come back down, pressuring them to keep spreads wide, he said. But that might be overwhelmed by an increase in the value of mortgages that banks already own, as loans from the late 2010s and 2020 that pay lower rates regain value they lost as rates rose, he said. In that case, more banks would probably be more willing to let spreads fall, he added.
Mortgage rates could come down quicker than expected if banks respond to rising mortgage-bond values by relaxing spreads, Duncan said. When the Fed tried to talk markets into tightening credit in 2013, mortgage spreads actually became smaller, loosening mortgage credit, Haworth said.
“Unless rates go back to 3 percent, banks are still going to be better off, even if prepayments pick up,” Duncan said.
Source: cnbc.com
The American dream of homeownership is getting further out of reach for many Hoosiers.
As pandemic-era supply shortages began to return to normal, home prices fell, giving prospective homebuyers hope they could find something affordable. But those hopes were dashed for some who found they could not pay the high mortgage rates, which are currently more than double pandemic lows.
According to Paul Schwinghammer, former president of the Indiana Builders Association, markets will bounce back eventually. But when prices return to “normal,” many will still be unable to afford the investment that sustained previous generations.
“The days of a brand new home at $200,000 are probably very much in our rearview mirror,” Schwinghammer said.
As potential homeowners are pushed into becoming renters due to high mortgage rates, Schwinghammer said the thriving rental market is not the silver bullet to the housing market some think it is.
“That’s not the American dream,” he said.
Housing has become more expensive overall in the past several decades.
In 1950, Hoosiers made less — the median household income was $2,827, or about $30,000 in today’s dollars — now the median household income is $61,944. But housing prices have zoomed past that growth.
In 1950, the inflation-adjusted cost of the median home value was around $70,000. Today, the median listing price is $218,000, according to the state housing dashboard. In other words, the cost of housing has tripled, clearly outpacing wage growth in Indiana.
The cause of this gap is hotly debated. Some argue it is due to a decreased supply of housing — in Indiana, 16.8% of existing housing was built prior to 1940, and the percentage of homes built in the 2010s makes up the smallest slice of the housing pie at just 5.3%.
Experts point to the 2008 housing crash as a major factor in the building slowdown. After the crash, the membership of the Indiana Builders Association fell from 7,200 to 3,000, and the industry has been cautious ever since.
While building picked up pace in response to pandemic-driven demand, Indiana still has a 1.04% shortage of housing stock according to FreddieMac — the largest of all surrounding states.
At the most basic level, a housing unit cannot be cheaper than the raw cost to build it. During the pandemic, supply and demand saw timber, copper and other building materials spike in price, which was exacerbated by high labor costs. Schwinghammer argues this raw cost can be further increased by municipal regulations surrounding lot size, materials and aesthetics.
“That’s all well and good, except you’re ruling out homebuyers,” Schwinghammer said.
For affordability advocates, a relatively simple solution is increasing the amount of homes that can be built in an area by reducing lot size. This allows more homes to be built, increasing supply, all at a lower cost to builders, which are hopefully passed onto consumers.
But in practice, housing density is fiercely contested. Examples of density can range from apartment complexes to duplexes, which can be impossible if an area is zoned for single-family use. Other times, things like parking space requirements can thwart density attempts.
But overwhelmingly, the biggest opposition to denser housing can come from neighbors and community members, whether it’s an apartment complex in Broad Ripple or a controversial zoning change to allow for multifamily housing in certain Bloomington neighborhoods. In fact, a survey of New York developers found that the majority of opposition to developments came from residents.
Ultimately, Indiana joins most of the country in having high rates of single-family detached housing, with the housing type making up 73.1% of all housing in Indiana, according to the state housing dashboard.
While housing supply remains low in general, low-income Hoosiers are facing an even bigger gap when it comes to affordable housing supply. According to a Prosperity Indiana report, the state is 120,796 homes short of affordable and available rental homes, which means there are only 39 affordable units available for every 100 low-income renter households. The numbers show Indiana is performing worse than the regional average.
“Indiana is increasingly out of step with its Midwest peers when it comes to affordability and stability,” Andrew Bradley, policy director at Prosperity Indiana, said.
One method of helping low-income renters is Section 8 housing, a federal program that allows income-qualifying individuals to pay subsidized rents. But the program often fails to meet the demand — in Indiana, people are often on waitlists for three to five years before they can get housing, and sometimes the waitlists themselves are closed. There are currently seven waitlists open on the Indiana Housing and Community Development Authority website, spanning only about a third of counties.
With state and federal assistance so hard to find, some municipalities have attempted to fill the gap in affordable housing through local regulations.
In Bloomington, where housing is the most expensive in the state, local officials attempted to implement inclusionary zoning in 2017. Inclusionary zoning is a type of policy that requires developers to include a certain percentage of affordable units in their projects instead of trying to individually negotiate more affordable units through incentives.
That same year, the Indiana General Assembly banned municipalities from doing so, putting a direct halt to the city’s plans. Today, Indiana preempts municipalities from enacting four different types of equitable housing policies. In addition to inclusionary zoning, these include short term rentals, source of income nondiscrimination policies and rent regulation. Indiana is the only state in the country to prohibit all four policies.
Bradley said Indiana’s Housing Task Force is focusing too much on building new homes instead of sharing a focus on strengthening protections for tenants and improving current housing stock. He said this is partly due to a lack of representation of everyday Hoosiers on the task force.
He referenced Senate Bill 202, bipartisan legislation focused on tenant protections that was later stripped down to a study bill, as an example of the priorities of the legislature. The bill did not end up passing the House, and was not selected as a summer study topic.
“Suppliers of new housing have dominated the conversation at the Statehouse,” Bradley said.
Although commodity prices have decreased 10% across the board, Schwinghammer said, homebuyers are not seeing true relief due to high mortgage rates, which currently hover around 7%. Although mortgage rates have spiked as high as 16% in previous decades, the current rate is higher than pre-pandemic rates of around 4% and pandemic lows of 3%.
Part of this is due to the Federal Reserve’s sharp hikes in interest rates in order to combat inflation.
Ultimately, Schwinghammer said it would take 33% of the average person’s wage to begin homeownership — resulting in the highest debt to income ratio since 2007. Housing is effectively the least affordable it’s been in nearly two decades, he said.
As potential homebuyers are shut out of the market, builders have turned to the build-for-rent phenomenon sweeping the country in order to keep busy. BFR involves communities of single family rental homes that people can live in without making a purchase, allowing people to avoid interest rates.
Schwinghammer said BFR, which once took up 3% of the market, is now 15%.
As people struggle to afford new homes, pre-existing — and often cheaper — homes are selling less because homeowners don’t want to trade in their lower rates for the current 7% interest rate.
But the market is cyclical by nature, Schwinghammer said, and interest rates will likely be declining in a year.
“The natural ebbs and flows of the market will allow that to happen,” he said.
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Source: indianacapitalchronicle.com
It’s 2021. A group of Redditors has inflated GameStop’s share price by 2,100% and investors have poured $280 million into BUZZ, an ETF based on social media hype.
Backed by the founder of Barstool Sports, BUZZ is currently outperforming the S&P 500.
What a time to be alive.
The market madness of early 2021 has given everyone from retail investors to the Chairman of the Fed plenty to think about. For investment firm VanEck, it highlighted a golden opportunity to resurrect a wacky idea from the mid-2010s: an ETF based not on rising price, but on hype.
The VanEck Vectors Social Sentiment ETF (BUZZ) is made up of 75 stocks chosen by their “social media sentiment,” i.e. their levels of buzz online. It’s a bit of a wild concept since investors don’t traditionally associate hashtags with a rise in share price. But if the GameStop explosion is any indication, hashtags matter now.
So how does BUZZ work? Why is it controversial? And why are ETFs in general considered a better long-term investment than individual stocks?
Let’s investigate BUZZ.
What’s Ahead:
On paper, BUZZ looks like a pretty normal ETF. It consists of a healthy number of stocks (75) including many blue chips like Ford, Tesla, and Twitter. Plus, it has a high bar for entry: all stocks in BUZZ must have a market cap of at least $5 billion, so no volatile newcomers are welcome here.
If BUZZ’s appearance seems normal, it’s the way these stocks were chosen that’s so fascinating.
ETFs have themes that link the underlying securities together. The first ETF, built in 1993, was SPY, and was launched to reflect the overall performance of the S&P 500. An investment in SPY, therefore, is like an investment in the S&P 500 index itself.
Today, there are over 7,600 ETFs bundling commodities like gold or oil, sectors like IT and healthcare, and emerging markets like Africa and India.
While ETF themes can range from the obvious to the creative, all ETF managers follow one basic principle: to build a fund that will increase in value over time. Case in point, you can’t just make up an ETF and get it listed – you have to get it approved by the SEC and sell your underlying logic to investors.
That’s what makes BUZZ so unique and controversial: some investors think it’s based on nothing at all.
The Van Eck Vectors Social Sentiment ETF (BUZZ) gets its 75 stocks from an algorithm called the Buzz NextGen AI U.S. Sentiment Leaders Index, which identifies companies getting “bullish social media sentiment.”
In short, it picks stocks based on rising popularity, not price.
Many investors aren’t too keen on BUZZ because they struggle to link social media mentions with share price. Earnings, growth potential, demand… these are factors that should indicate a rise in share price.
But Reddit mentions? Really?
Case in point, BUZZ isn’t the first hype-based ETF. The Sprott Buzz Social Media Insights ETF (BUZ) launched alongside the aforementioned AI index in 2015. But most agree that BUZ was just too ahead of its time. Due to a lack of investor interest, it closed.
Does that mean the naysayers are right? That social media mentions are a terrible predictor of a rise in share price?
Well, if BUZ had stayed open, it would’ve outperformed the S&P 500 in four of the last five calendar years.
Some in the media are quick to label BUZZ a “meme stock ETF” full of stocks that saw skyrocketing share prices thanks to the subreddit r/WallStreetBets. However, the two most notorious meme stocks, GameStop and AMC, are nowhere to be seen on BUZZ.
“This is not a Reddit meme stock ETF” says BUZZ originator Jamie Wise, as quoted in CNBC.
While GameStop and AMC support the logic behind BUZZ, that hype can drive share price, both stocks were way too extreme to be included. Among other reasons, they weren’t mentioned in enough places for a long enough period of time.
BUZZ isn’t trying to predict memes, but rather, find companies that might see a tick in share price due to positive social media sentiment. Hedge funds have been monitoring social media for years, but BUZZ represents the first time this intel is being shared with the people.
If learning about BUZZ has piqued your interest in ETF investing, here’s a quick refresher of the basics, and why, according to the experts, ETFs are often considered a better long-term investment than individual securities.
An ETF, or Exchange Traded Fund, is like a bundle of investments that you can buy and sell on an exchange. To illustrate, you can buy shares of BUZZ right now on Webull – for example – just like you’d buy shares of TSLA or GOOGL.
An ETF can include a mix of individual stocks, commodities, bonds, and other securities. And unlike mutual funds, ETFs can be traded all day, so their share prices constantly fluctuate.
Let’s say you want to invest in the clean energy sector. You could go buy, say, 88 individual company stocks. It’ll just take hundreds of hours of research, 88 trades, and fees, and leave you with 88 tickers to track in your portfolio.
Or, you could just invest in a single clean energy ETF. That way, the research is already done for you, you make one trade, and you only have a single ticker to track in your brokerage app of choice.
Expense ratios are a funds management costs, which are typically taken out of the fund’s assets.
Generally speaking, ETFs are passively managed and have significantly fewer operating expenses than something actively managed like a mutual fund. This means that ETF managers can afford to charge shareholders like you fewer fees (if any).
Because they represent bundles of securities, ETFs are naturally more diverse and stable than individual stocks. If the market is like a big, wide ocean, ETFs are like cargo ships. Sure, they can be a little slow, but they’re resilient to crashing waves and the occasional hurricane.
If you invest in a single stock and it tanks, you’re out of luck. But if you invest in a sector ETF and just one out of 108 stocks tanks, your investment will barely be affected. In fact, you might not even notice as the share price continues to rise with sector performance.
ETFs don’t always go up, of course, but their inherent diversity makes them a superior long-term investment than most individual securities.
BUZZ’s hype-based indexing logic is certainly avant-garde, but it still follows a traditional ETF philosophy: to provide a diverse, convenient, and stable pathway to long-term growth for investors.
Whether or not this ETF will continue to perform remains to be seen, and only time will tell!
Source: moneyunder30.com
In the early aughts, director Peter Jackson adapted J.R.R. Tolkien’s beloved fantasy epic, “The Lord of the Rings,” into an acclaimed film series. The high-fantasy saga followed Frodo and the Fellowship of the Ring’s quest to destroy the One Ring. In the mid-2010s, “The Hobbit” film series took viewers back to before the events of the first trilogy, showing how the One Ring came into the possession of Bilbo Baggins.
Now, fans can once again return to Middle-earth with the highly-anticipated premiere of “The Rings of Power.” Released on Sept. 2, 2022, on Amazon Prime, it takes place during the Second Age of Middle-Earth, thousands of years before “The Hobbit.” The series shows viewers how the Rings of Power and the Dark Lord Sauron came about, among other plotlines.
One of the best parts of seeing Tolkien’s work brought to life on the silver screen (and now at-home TV) is the locations and settings. The films and TV show have been famously filmed in New Zealand, set against the country’s stunning natural landscapes. If you can’t hop on a plane to New Zealand to visit the “Lord of the Rings” locations in person, these cities around the U.S. feel like places right out of Middle-Earth.
For this list, we used some locations from the original films and others from the new series. We chose these cities based on their appearance or resemblance to their Middle-earth counterparts. Mild spoilers ahead.
Misty Mountains, Rocky Mountains. Potato, po-tah-to. If one would like to live in a place that feels like the enchanted, Elven refuge of Rivendell, look no further than Aspen. Depictions of Rivendell show towering mountains, lush forests and a thriving yet peaceful city dwarfed by the majesty of nature. Aspen is similarly a mere speck against the giant Colorado Rockies. While waterfalls flow through the Elven city, you’ll need to head into the surrounding valleys and peaks to find them in Aspen, though.
Both are sanctuaries from the outside world, places to rest and be at one with nature. In addition to their abundant outdoorsy pursuits, you’ll also find abundant dining, gracious hosts and robust arts and crafts scenes, as well.
One of the most beloved places in Middle-Earth is the bucolic green hills and cozy hillside homes of the Shire. As we all know, it’s the home of the Hobbits. With mountains on the horizon, it’s a place of peace and prosperity where families live happily. The Hobbit residents spend time outdoors enjoying their unspoiled natural surroundings. Its real-world counterpart is definitely Missoula.
Surrounded by rolling green hills with a mountainous backdrop, Missoula bears a striking resemblance to the Shire. The city itself is also dotted with trees and lush greenery. Locals love Missoula for its laidback, relaxed quality of life, which Hobbits also prized. But it’s also a very outdoorsy, vibrant town with great dining and higher education. One doesn’t need to look far to find a lovely hike, walk or activity. It also has a very close-knit community. Sounds very Shire-like to us.
“The Rings of Power” introduces viewers to the Southlands. This idyllic region features green hills, plains and forests set against snowcapped mountains. This realm of Men calls to mind the mountainous landscapes around the rugged, outdoorsy town of Jackson Hole. The wooden barns and historic settler buildings of the area also have a similar look to the Southland villages.
But, those who have read Tolkien’s books know that the Southlands will one day become Mordor. Yep, the dark, lifeless plain and evil lands of Lord Sauron in the original films. The series will likely show how this comes to pass. But Jackson Hole could one day share a similar fate thanks to the nearby Yellowstone Caldera supervolcano.
If you haven’t read “The Silmarillion,” Eregion will likely be new to you. During “The Hobbit” and “The Lord of the Rings,” the cities of Eregion were ancient ruins. But, in the “Rings of Power,” Eregion is a prosperous, thriving Elven kingdom. A sweeping aerial shot in the second episode shows a forested city full of grand towers, nestled against a body of water. Immense, green mountains surround the city. This brings to mind Anchorage’s scenic location.
Not only that, but Eregion is close to the Dwarven city of Khazad-dûm and the Mines of Moria. The show hints that Eregion will be the location of the mighty forge that created the “Rings of Power.” Building such a forge requires the crude natural resources, craftsmanship and extractive skills of the Dwarf kingdom. Alaska is also a place of extreme natural beauty, mined for its natural resources.
It may lack the dramatic mountain backing of Minas Tirith. But the gleaming white and grey towers and spires of the City that Never Sleeps mimic the grandeur and colossal scale of Gondor’s capital city. From the multi-tiered building levels to the crowing spire of the Empire State Building, these two great cities look very similar. But, they’re also alike in terms of their importance in their respective realms.
As Gondor was the main realm of Men in Middle-earth, so is New York City, one of modern man’s great centers of living. It’s here that business, art, culture, politics and key historical events all converge, as in Minas Tirith.
Who can forget the enchanting, moss-laden Fangorn Forest? It was here that Merry and Pippin first encountered the Ents in “The Twin Towers?” Located at the base of the southeastern Misty Mountains, this deep, dark woodland is the last remnant of a sweeping forest dating from the First Age of Middle-earth.
With its lush, dense city parks like Forest Park and Washington Park, Portland captures that same, magical feeling. Portland is often hailed as one of the greenest cities in the U.S. Along with its many parks, Portland’s eccentric and fantastical districts boast their own urban forest. So, even if you’re not hiking in Forest Park, you still feel surrounded by nature. Not only that, but Portland locals love the great outdoors. It’s common to spend most of your time outside, and locals also respect nature. The city’s famously weird atmosphere also dovetails with LOTR’s fantasy genre.
And, with Bigfoot said to roam the forests and mountains of the Pacific Northwest, who’s to say there isn’t an Ent or two out there, as well?
With its stately trees, undulating forested mountains and tranquil aura, the Blue Ridge Mountains of the southeastern United States feel similar to Lothlórien. This realm of sky-scraping trees and mystical cities is the fairest of all the Elven realms. Anyone who explores the Blue Ridge Mountains can’t deny its majesty and beauty.
For many reasons, the mountain city of Asheville in the heart of North Carolina‘s Blue Ridge Mountains feels like it would fit right into place in Lothlórien. Its historic and stately architecture, like the Biltmore Estate, and wealth of architectural styles from Gothic to Beaux Arts reflect the elegant dwellings of the Elves. Asheville is renowned for its arts scene and makers culture, and the Elves of LOTR are master craftsmen, as well. Finally, the beautiful outdoors in and outside the city feel like the timeless forests of Tolkien’s fantasy realm.
It’s all well and good to watch the films and TV shows or read the books and imagine yourself living in Middle-Earth. But, in these “Lord of the Rings” cities and regions, it’s like you’re actually there. So, why not go on an adventure and try living in a new city that feels like something out of a fantasy world?
Source: rent.com