The era of low mortgage rates is over. Embracing this reality will hasten your owning a house that meets your needs.
Low rates flourished for 11 years, as the 30-year mortgage remained below 5% from February 2011 to April 2022. Since then, it has remained mostly above 5%, averaging 6.72% in June in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey.
Some forecasters predict that rates will decline over the next 12 months. But they don’t foresee rates dropping below 5% anytime soon. If you want to buy a home, it’s tempting to be in denial that this is happening. But as you start to accept that we’re now in a time of higher rates, you can achieve closure (literally, when you close on the purchase of a home).
“People are still working through their five stages of grief on this mortgage rate stuff,” says Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS, the real estate listing service for the mid-Atlantic region. “And I think you have to reach the stage of acceptance at some point that certainly rates aren’t going to come down to where we were back during 2020 and 2021.” (When the median 30-year rate was 2.99%.)
Forecasters predict a modest decline in rates
Let’s brighten that grim outlook by detailing how Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors all forecast a gradual, moderate decline in mortgage rates through at least the first three months of 2024.
Those three organizations are not alone in their prediction that mortgage rates will go down, but no one expects rates to plunge back to where they were two years ago.
“I still think we’re going to see rates stabilizing and then moving slowly down this year and we’re going to end 2023 at 6%,” Sturtevant says.
Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com, said in an email that “our base expectation is that it will take until the end of this year or early next year before mortgage rates get back to 6%.”
A dissenting voice comes from Zillow, where senior economist Orphe Divounguy said by email, “Buyers should not count on any dramatic rate falls in the next few years.” Mortgage rates, he said, will end 2023 above 6%.
One takeaway from these forecasts: Sure, mortgage rates might drop a little. Maybe. If the forecasters are right. But if you hold out for dramatically lower rates, you’ll probably wait in vain. And if they do fall substantially after you buy, you can refinance.
Inflation is the wild card
What if you want to do your own research? Economists monitor tons of data when forecasting mortgage rates. But if you ask them what regular folks should keep an eye on, they reply as one: inflation.
According to Hale, “It’s not linked one-to-one with mortgage rates, but an easing in the pace of general price increases will help bring mortgage rates down for two reasons.”
For starters, diminished inflation will hasten the end of Federal Reserve rate increases. Second, lenders will “stop baking in a larger inflation premium into mortgage rates.” They do that “to account for the fact that future dollars that are used to pay back the investment aren’t as valuable,” Hale explained.
Most people gauge inflation by the price of gasoline and eggs. Your boss’s boss’s boss swears by the consumer price index. The monetary policymakers at the Federal Reserve rely on an inflation measurement called core PCE, for personal consumption expenditures. “Core” means that energy and food (gasoline and eggs) are stripped out because their prices are volatile.
The Fed’s goal is to keep core PCE around 2%, but it has been higher than 3% for more than two years. From January through April (the latest data available), core PCE was 4.6% or 4.7%. Core CPI has been higher but falling.
“As long as inflation eases, that’s the main factor that will bring our mortgage rate down,” says Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research for the National Association of Realtors.
But if inflation stays spitefully high, mortgage rates will remain elevated.
If you’re pining for 3% rates — they’re not coming back
Let’s say the Fed eventually succeeds in taming inflation to 2%. That will be worth celebrating, but it doesn’t necessarily mean mortgage rates will wander south of 5%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts the 30-year mortgage will dip below 5% toward the end of 2024, but Fannie Mae and the Realtors don’t predict rates will fall that far.
Do what makes you happy
It’s not realistic to put a home purchase on hold in the hope that mortgage rates will return to 2020 and 2021, when the 30-year mortgage held its breath under 4% the entire time. The median rate over the past 30 years is 5.77%. That’s the reality that we’ve returned to.
If you want to buy your first home, you’re probably going to pay well above 5% on a 30-year mortgage, and you’ll have to establish a budget with that in mind. If you’re a homeowner, you dread giving up your current low-rate mortgage and getting a higher-rate loan on the next house. That’s understandable, but as Miranda Lambert once sang, “there’s freedom in a broken heart.”
Whether you’re looking for a bigger place or a smaller home, or one better located for schools or your commute, you might end up satisfied — even after trading a low rate for a higher rate.
Mortgage applications increased 2.3% from the previous week, largely due to a strong purchase market, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) survey for the week ending Jan. 14.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 7.9% from the previous week, while the Refinance Index decreased 3.1% in the same period.
Compared to the same week one year ago, mortgage apps overall dropped 37.3%, with a sharp decline in refinance (-49.2%) compared to purchase (-12.2%).
According to Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, the 30-year fixed rate reached 3.64%, more than 30 basis points over the past two weeks. Higher rates led to the “slowest pace of refinance activity in over two years,” mainly among FHA and VA loans, Kan said in a statement.
Regarding purchase applications, the average loan size set a record at $418,500. “The continued rise in purchase loan application sizes is driven by high home price appreciation and the lack of housing inventory on the market – especially for entry-level homes,” Kan said.
The economist added that government purchase applications had slower growth, contributing to the larger loan balances and suggesting that prospective first-time buyers are struggling to find homes to buy in their price range.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 60.3% of total applications last week, from 64.1% the previous week. The VA apps went from 11.4% to 10% in the same period.
The FHA share of total applications decreased from 9.9% to 9.3%. Meanwhile, the adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased to 3.8% of total applications. The USDA share of total applications stood unchanged at 0.4%.
The trade group estimates that the average contract 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for conforming loans ($647,200 or less) increased from 3.52% to 3.64%. For jumbo mortgage loans (greater than $647,200), rates went to 3.54% from 3.42% the week prior.
Economists expect that rates will increase in 2022 but will still be close to record-low levels. MBA forecasts that 30-year mortgage-rates will reach 4% by the end of 2022.
Mortgage applications increased 2.3% from the previous week, largely due to a strong purchase market, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) survey for the week ending Jan. 14.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 7.9% from the previous week, while the Refinance Index decreased 3.1% in the same period.
Compared to the same week one year ago, mortgage apps overall dropped 37.3%, with a sharp decline in refinance (-49.2%) compared to purchase (-12.2%).
According to Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, the 30-year fixed rate reached 3.64%, more than 30 basis points over the past two weeks. Higher rates led to the “slowest pace of refinance activity in over two years,” mainly among FHA and VA loans, Kan said in a statement.
Regarding purchase applications, the average loan size set a record at $418,500. “The continued rise in purchase loan application sizes is driven by high home price appreciation and the lack of housing inventory on the market – especially for entry-level homes,” Kan said.
The economist added that government purchase applications had slower growth, contributing to the larger loan balances and suggesting that prospective first-time buyers are struggling to find homes to buy in their price range.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 60.3% of total applications last week, from 64.1% the previous week. The VA apps went from 11.4% to 10% in the same period.
The FHA share of total applications decreased from 9.9% to 9.3%. Meanwhile, the adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased to 3.8% of total applications. The USDA share of total applications stood unchanged at 0.4%.
The trade group estimates that the average contract 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for conforming loans ($647,200 or less) increased from 3.52% to 3.64%. For jumbo mortgage loans (greater than $647,200), rates went to 3.54% from 3.42% the week prior.
Economists expect that rates will increase in 2022 but will still be close to record-low levels. MBA forecasts that 30-year mortgage-rates will reach 4% by the end of 2022.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased to 3.22% during the week ending Jan. 6, up from 3.11% the week prior, according to the latest Freddie Mac PMMS Mortgage Survey. A year ago, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 2.65%.
The 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 2.43% last week, up from 2.33% the week prior. A year ago at this time, it averaged 2.16%. Mortgage rates tend to move in concert with the 10-year Treasury yield, which reached 1.75% on Wednesday, up from 1.51% a week before.
This is the second week of mortgage rate increases, after the 30-year fixed rate fell to 3.05% on Dec. 23 amid fears of the Omicron variant.
The report is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.
“Mortgage rate increased during the first week of 2022 to the highest level since May 2020 and are more than half a percent higher than January 2021,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist said in a statement. “With higher inflation, promising economic growth and a tight labor market, we expect rates will continue to rise. The impact of higher rates on purchase demand remains modest so far give the current first-time homebuyer growth.”
How local lenders can remain competitive in 2022’s changing market
As the strong refinance volume of 2020 and 2021 drops industry-wide, lending businesses find themselves at a crossroads: How will they manage the impact of fixed expenses until the next injection of loan volume?
Presented by: Maxwell
Economists expect rates to increase in 2022 but will still be close to record-low levels. The Mortgage BankersAssociation (MBA) forecasts that 30-year mortgage rates will reach 4% by the end of 2022.
Drivers of the rising rates include a more hawkish Federal Reserve, a strongly recovering economy, and large federal budget deficits, according to Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president of research and industry technology.
Rising mortgage rates have already begun to sap demand. According to MBA, mortgage applications fell 2.7% during the two weeks ending Dec. 31. The purchase index fell 32% from two weeks prior, while the refinance index increased 2% during the same time period.
The average 30-year-fixed rate mortgage climbed to 3.56% during the week ending Jan. 20, rising from 3.45% the week prior, according to the latest Freddie Mac PMMS Mortgage Survey. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.77%. Most economists believe rates will continue to climb in the weeks and months ahead.
“Mortgage rates moved up again as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose and financial markets adjusted to anticipated changes in monetary policy that will combat inflation,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement.
The Federal Reserve announced in December that it is accelerating its tapering of bond-purchases starting in January. It is reducing the pace of its monthly purchases by $20 billion for Treasury securities and $10 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. In November, the Fed started with a reduction of $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities.
The rise in mortgage rates moved in concert with the 10-year Treasury yield, which reached 1.83% yesterday, compared to 1.67% on the previous Wednesday.
The report is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.
The 15-year-fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.79% last week, up from 2.62% the week prior. A year ago at this time, it averaged 2.21%. According to Khater, “supply remains near historically tight levels and home prices remain high, keeping the market competitive.”
The non-QM outlook for 2022
As we look forward to 2022, the non-QM market is predicted to grow substantially. Housing supply constraints and refinance decline are among market factors contributing to this expected growth for the non-QM sector.
Presented by: Acra Lending
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on Tuesday that mortgage applications climbed 2.3% for the week ending Jan. 14. The growth was buoyed by a 7.9% increase in the trade group’s seasonally adjusted purchase index. On the refinance front, the index dipped by 3.1% from the previous week.
Economists expect rates to increase in 2022 but will still be close to record-low levels. The MBA forecasts that 30-year mortgage rates will reach 4% by the end of 2022.
Average mortgage rates fell just a little last Friday. But last Thursday’s massive jump means they finished that week — and last month — higher than when they started them.
First thing, it was looking as if mortgage rates today might again barely budge. But that could change as the hours pass.
Markets will be closed tomorrow for the Independence Day holiday. And we’ll be back on Wednesday morning. Enjoy your celebrations!
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.129%
7.158%
Unchanged
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.638%
6.651%
Unchanged
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.506%
7.558%
Unchanged
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.997%
7.115%
Unchanged
30-year fixed FHA
6.672%
7.303%
Unchanged
15-year fixed FHA
6.763%
7.237%
Unchanged
30-year fixed VA
6.729%
6.937%
Unchanged
15-year fixed VA
6.625%
6.965%
Unchanged
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.75%
7.266%
Unchanged
5/1 ARM FHA
6.75%
7.532%
+0.11
5/1 ARM VA
6.75%
7.532%
+0.11
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
Recent reporting in the financial media makes me think mortgage rates are unlikely to see any significant and sustained falls until at least the fourth (Oct.-Dec.) quarter of 2023 and probably not until 2024.
And that’s why my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCK if closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time last Friday, were:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged down to 3.82% from 3.85%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were mostly lower. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices inched up to $70.61 from $70.25 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices rose to $1,930 from $1,919 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — climbed to 84 from 80 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might again hold steady or close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Currently
To see sustained lower mortgage rates we need to see the inflation rate halving, the economy weakening, and the Federal Reserve stopping hiking general interest rates. And none of those looks likely anytime soon.
Some progress is being made on inflation. But not enough.
And the economy is showing extraordinary resilience. Last week’s gross domestic product (GDP) headline figure was 50% higher than many expected.
Meanwhile, the Fed seems highly likely to hike general interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) on Jul. 26. And there may well be at least one more increase after that in 2023.
Recession
As I’ve written before, our best hope for lower mortgage rates is a recession. That should weaken the economy, reduce inflation and perhaps cause the Fed to at least hold general rates steady.
Economists have been predicting an imminent recession for ages. And, not so long ago, I bought that line and was expecting one at any moment.
But, now, many big hitters aren’t expecting a recession until 2024. Yesterday, CNN Business listed a few of those making that prediction:
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan
Vanguard economists
JPMorgan Chase economists
Of course, others disagree, as economists always do. Some think a recession will still land later this year. And others believe there will be no recession at all.
This week
There are a few reports this week that could send mortgage rates up or down a bit. But Friday’s jobs report is the one most likely to have a decisive impact.
The consensus among economists is that the report will show 240,000 new jobs created in June compared with 339,000 in May. Anything lower than 240,000 might see mortgage rates tumble, which would be great.
However, we’ve witnessed economists making similar predictions for employment several times over recent months. And, nearly every time, their forecasts have greatly underestimated the resilience of the American labor market and therefore the American economy.
Of course, they might be right this time. Let’s hope so. But I shouldn’t hold my breath if I were you.
Please read the weekend edition of this daily report for more background on what’s happening to mortgage rates.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.
Freddie’s Jun. 29 report put that same weekly average at 6.71%, up from the previous week’s 6.67%. But Freddie is almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
In November, Freddie stopped including discount points in its forecasts. It has also delayed until later in the day the time at which it publishes its Thursday reports. Andwe now update this section on Fridays.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q2/23) and the following three quarters (Q3/23, Q4/23 and Q1/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were published on May 23 and the MBA’s on Jun. 21.
In the past, we included Freddie Mac’s forecasts. But it seems to have given up on publishing those.
Forecaster
Q2/23
Q3/23
Q4/23
Q1/24
Fannie Mae
6.4%
6.2%
6.0%
5.8%
MBA
6.5%
6.2%
5.8%
5.6%
Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Find your lowest rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change, unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased to 3.45% during the week ending Jan. 13, up from 3.22% the week prior, according to the latest Freddie Mac PMMS Mortgage Survey. A year ago, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 2.79%.
The 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 2.62% last week, up from 2.43% the week prior. A year ago at this time, it averaged 2.23%. Mortgage rates tend to move in concert with the 10-year Treasury yield, which reached 1.74% on Wednesday, up from 1.71% a week before.
This is the third week of mortgage rate increases, after the 30-year fixed rate fell to 3.05% on Dec. 23 amid fears of the Omicron variant. The report is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.
Rates rose across all mortgage loan types, according to Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. Driving the increase is the expectation of a faster than expected tightening of monetary policy in response to a continued inflation caused by disruptions in labor and supply chains.
“The rise in mortgage rates so far this year has not yet affected purchase demand, but given the fast pace of home price growth, it will likely dampen demand in the near future,” Khater said.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on Tuesday that mortgage applications climbed 1.4% for the week ending Jan. 7. The growth was buoyed by a 2% increase in the trade group’s seasonally adjusted purchase index. On the refinance front, the index dipped by 0.1% from the previous week, coming in 50% lower than the same week one year ago.
Economists expect rates to increase in 2022 but will still be close to record-low levels. The MBA forecasts that 30-year mortgage rates will reach 4% by the end of 2022.
The average 30-year-fixed rate mortgage climbed to 3.92% for the week ending Feb. 17, up 23 basis points from the previous week. It’s the highest level since May 2019, according to the latest Freddie Mac PMMS Mortgage Survey.
A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.81%. The PMMS report is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.
“Mortgage rates jumped again due to high inflation and stronger than expected consumer spending,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement. According to him, “as rates and house prices rise, affordability has become a substantial hurdle for potential homebuyers, especially as inflation threatens to place a strain on consumer budgets.”
Mortgage rates typically move in concert with the 10-year Treasury yield, which reached 2.03% yesterday, compared to 1.94% on the previous Wednesday. The 15-year-fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.15% last week, up from 2.93% the week prior. A year ago at this time, it averaged 2.21%.
Economists had predicted rates would increase in 2022 as the overall economy stabilized – but would still be close to record-low levels. However, rates rose faster than expected. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) forecasts that 30-year mortgage rates would reach 4% by the end of 2022.
Some mortgage rate indices topped 4% late last week.
Sponsored Video
Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, told HousingWire that If conditions stay in the current state, we’ll certainly see higher rates.
However, rates could quickly head in the other direction, “if something abroad rocks the boat,” such as an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, an emergent Covid variant, or a sudden change in certain commodity prices.
So far, rising rates are impacting borrowers’ appetite.
Mortgage applications decreased 5.4% from the previous week, when rates eclipsed the 4% mark for the first time since 2019, according to the MBA survey for the week ending Feb. 11.
The seasonally adjusted refi index fell 8.9% from the previous week, bringing its share of total applications to the lowest level in 19 months. The survey showed that the refi share of mortgage activity decreased to 52.8% of total applications last week, from 56.2% the previous week.
Meanwhile, the purchase index dropped a mere 1.2% from the previous week. A heavier mix of conventional applications again contributed to another record average loan size at $453,000.
Mortgage watchers expect rates to trend down by the end of the year. Will that long-awaited decline begin this month?
May mortgage rate predictions
Mortgage rates are likely to remain volatile this month. While most forecasters call for them to ease below 6 percent later this year, that prediction assumes the Federal Reserve’s war on inflation will continue to bear fruit.
“It’s hard to know exactly where rates will go because there are a lot of mixed signals in the economy,” says Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a multiple listing service operating in the Mid-Atlantic.
The first market-moving event on the calendar comes May 3, when the Fed unveils its latest position on interest rates. Many expect a 0.25 percentage point increase, following an identical boost at the central bank’s March 22 meeting.
While the Fed doesn’t dictate mortgage rates, the central bank’s policies ripple through the mortgage market. Since early 2022, mortgage rates have been driven by inflation — and by how aggressively the Fed has responded to rein it in.
If the Fed looks to be moving to the sidelines after an early May rate hike and we continue to see moderating inflation pressures, mortgage rates could slide back to the low 6s.
— Greg McBride, Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst
Many view the central bank’s actions as the clearest indicator of the direction of mortgage rates.
“It all depends on the Fed,” says Doug Duncan, chief economist at mortgage giant Fannie Mae.
“If the Fed looks to be moving to the sidelines after an early May rate hike and we continue to see moderating inflation pressures, mortgage rates could slide back to the low 6s, a level not seen since September,” says Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.
The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts rates will fall to 5.5 percent by the end of 2023 as the economy weakens. The group revised its forecast upward a bit — it previously expected rates to fall to 5.3 percent.
Meanwhile, Fannie Mae’s Duncan expects rates to be in the “high 5s” by the end of 2023. He bases that forecast on the assumption the central bank won’t cut rates in 2023.
What’s driving mortgage rates this month
Mortgage rates bounced around in April, frustrating homebuyers who hoped to make a deal during the spring selling season.
The 30-year fixed rate climbed from 6.32 percent the week of April 5 to 6.61 percent the week of April 19, according to Bankrate’s national survey of lenders. Then they retreated to 6.48 percent in Bankrate’s April 26 survey.
Rates fell in part because the banking industry’s woes were back in the headlines. In late April, fresh concerns about the financial sector spurred a flight to safety by investors. As a result, 10-year Treasury yields dipped. The 10-year Treasury is the benchmark most closely tied to 30-year mortgage rates.
The new worries echoed the March banking crisis, although not as loudly. Mortgage rates fell sharply after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed, March 10 and March 12, respectively.
Inflation, too, has been a hallmark of the U.S. economy’s strong rebound from the pandemic recession of 2020. Nearly everyone expected the economy to fall into a recession in late 2022 or early 2023, but that hasn’t happened, at least not yet.
“With first-quarter GDP numbers showing a slowing economy, recession fears have been boosted, which could mean that we will see mortgage rates edge lower in the months ahead,” says Sturtevant. “Mortgage rates typically fall during recessionary periods.”
Political bickering — in the form of a partisan standoff over the federal budget — could also affect mortgage rates.
“The debt ceiling is the ultimate wild card, and markets will get very nervous very fast as the deadline approaches,” says McBride.
Another factor to consider is the “the spread,” the gap between 10-year Treasury yields and 30-year mortgage rates. That margin has been unusually high for the past year or so.
“If that gap were to narrow, mortgage rates could decline,” says Sturtevant.
Mortgage rates and homebuying season
The spring homebuying season is officially underway, and these are nervous times for buyers. Home prices remain elevated, and mortgage rates have fluctuated day to day.
“Even if rates do come down, we’re not going to see the sub-3 percent rates we had during the pandemic,” says Sturtevant, “and the decline in rates is not going to solve the housing affordability challenge which has gotten persistently worse, particularly for first-time homebuyers. In markets with extremely low inventory, lower rates could actually exacerbate the housing affordability crunch if they bring more prospective buyers into an already competitive market.”
Other than possible lender-imposed waiting periods after a mortgage loan closes, you can generally refinance your home as many times as you like. But you’ll want to do the math first.
Homeowners choose to refinance for a number of reasons: to lower monthly payments, take advantage of lower interest rates, get better terms, pay the loan off more quickly, or eliminate private mortgage insurance.
Refinancing involves paying off the current mortgage with a second loan that has (hopefully) better terms. Borrowers don’t have to stay with the same lender—it’s possible to shop around for the best deals.
Mortgage rates seem to be constantly in flux, moving mostly in parallel with the federal interest rate. In 2021, the average rate of a 30-year fixed mortgage was 2.96%. In 2022, as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to try to tame inflation, mortgage rates began to rise and jumped to more than 7%. By mid-June 2023, the average rate of a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.69%.
So is now the right time for you to refinance? Here are some things to consider before taking the plunge.
The Basics of Mortgage Refinancing
Because a homeowner who chooses to refinance is essentially taking out a new loan, the cost of acquiring the new loan must be compared with potential savings. It could take years to recoup the cost of refinancing.
As with the initial mortgage loan, a refinance requires a number of steps, including credit checks, underwriting, and possibly an appraisal.
Typically, however, many homeowners start with an online search for the rates they qualify for. (A lower average mortgage rate doesn’t necessarily translate to an individual offer—creditworthiness, debt-to-income ratio, income, and other factors similar to what’s required for an initial mortgage will matter.)
The secret sauce that makes up a mortgage refinance rate might seem like a mystery, but there are some common factors that can affect your offer:
• Credit score: As a general rule, higher credit scores translate to lower interest rates. A number of financial institutions and credit card companies will give account holders access to their credit scores for free, and a number of independent sites offer a free peek, too. • Loan term/type: Is the loan a 30-year fixed? A 15-year? Variable rate? The selected loan repayment terms are likely to affect the interest rate. • Down payment: A refinance doesn’t typically require cash upfront, as a first-time mortgage usually does, but any cash that can be put toward the value of a loan can help reduce payments. • Home value vs. loan amount: If a home loan is extra large (or extra small), interest rates could be higher. But generally speaking, the less the mortgage amount is compared with the value of the home, the lower the interest rates may be. • Points: Some refinance offers come with the option to take “points” in exchange for a lower interest rate. In simplest terms, points are discounts in the form of a fee that’s paid upfront in exchange for a lower interest rate. • Location, location, location: Where the property is physically located matters not only in its value but in the interest rate you might receive.
What Types of Refinance Loans Are Out There?
As with first-time home loans, consumers have a number of refinance mortgage options available to them. The two most common types involve either changing the terms of the original loan or taking out cash based on the home’s equity.
A rate-and-term refinance changes the interest rate, repayment term, or sometimes both at once. Homeowners might seek out this type of refinance loan when there’s a drop in interest rates, and it could save them money for both the short term and the life of the loan.
A cash-out refinance can also change the terms or interest rate, but it includes cash back to the homeowner based on the home’s equity.
Within those two basic types of refinance options, conventional mortgages from traditional lenders are the most common. But refinancing can also happen through a number of government programs.
Some, like USDA-backed loans , require the initial mortgage to be a part of the program as well, but others, such as the VA, have a VA-to-VA refinance loan called an interest rate reduction refinance loan and a non-VA loan to a VA-backed refinance , so it’s important to shop around to find the best option.
How Early Can I Refinance My Home?
If a home purchase comes with immediate equity—it was purchased as a foreclosure or short sale, for example—the temptation to cash out immediately with a refinance may be strong. The same could be true if interest rates fall dramatically soon after the ink is dry on a mortgage. Especially for conventional loans, it may be possible to refinance right away. Others may require a waiting period.
For example, there can be a six-month waiting period for a cash-out refinance. Or, refinancing via government programs like the FHA streamline refinance or VA’s interest rate reduction refinance loan can require waiting periods of 210 days.
Lenders can require a waiting period (also called a “seasoning period”) until they refinance their own loans for a number of reasons, including assurance insurance that the original loan is in good standing.
For a cash-out refinance, some lenders may also require that the home has at least 20% equity.
Questions to Ask Before You Refinance
Just because you can refinance doesn’t necessarily mean you should. First, ask yourself these questions.
What Is the Goal?
Identifying the endgame of a mortgage refinance can help determine whether now is the right time. If a lower monthly payment is the goal, it can be wise to play around with a refinance calculator to see just how much a lower interest rate will help.
For years, it has been a general rule that a refinance should lower the interest rate by at least 2 percentage points to be worth it. Some lenders believe 1 percentage point is still beneficial (each percentage point amounts to roughly $100 a month in payment reduction), but anything less than that and the savings could be eaten up by closing costs.
What Is the Total Repayment Amount?
It’s important to remember that a lower monthly payment—even if it’s significantly less—doesn’t necessarily equal savings in the long run.
If a mortgage with 20 years remaining is refinanced to lower the monthly payment, for example, the most affordable option could be a 30-year mortgage. But is the lower monthly payment worth it if you’ll be paying it off for 10 additional years?
Will I Need Cash to Close?
One of the biggest differences between a first-time mortgage and a refinance is the amount it costs to close the loan. Many times, closing costs for a refinance can be rolled into the loan, requiring no cash at the outset.
Closing costs typically come in at 2% to 5% of the loan amount, and although they can be rolled into the loan and paid off over time, that could mean the new monthly payment isn’t as low as planned.
One way to make sure the investment is worth the cost is to consider how long it would take you to reach the break-even point, which is when you recoup the costs of refinancing. For instance, if it takes you 24 months to reach the break-even point, and you plan on living in your home for at least that long, refinancing may make sense for you.
Considering refinancing your home? SoFi offers mortgage refinance loans with competitive interest rates.
Whenever you’re ready to refinance, SoFi is here to help.
SoFi Loan Products SoFi loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A., NMLS #696891 (Member FDIC). For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal. Equal Housing Lender.
SoFi Mortgages Terms, conditions, and state restrictions apply. Not all products are available in all states. See SoFi.com/eligibility for more information.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.
Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.