“There’s such scarcity that the first thing that matters is finding a home you like,” said Jay Tuli, president of Leader Bank, which sells 90 percent of its home loans in Massachusetts.
Home sales are down year-over-year due to the lack of inventory, said Theresa Hatton, chief executive of Massachusetts Association of Realtors.
Many prospective buyers who were waiting for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates by now have reason to give up hope. Inflation isn’t coming down quickly enough and, at 3.5 percent, is still well above the Fed’s 2 percent target. So the central bank won’t trim short-term rates fast enough this year, contrary to what most economists had been expecting. Consequently, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 7.1 percent, over 1 percentage point higher than this time last year and 0.6 percent more than January 2024, Freddie Mac reported last week.
“Until inflation cools a bit, we can expect mortgage rates to remain elevated,” said Michael Debronzo, a regional sales executive at PNC Bank, which has noted a slight uptick in loan applications.
The market is closely watching the Fed’s every move and the economy is a confounding puzzle even for experts. That will result in a volatile ride for the remainder of the year.
Advertisement
With that in mind, here are three things for home buyers to consider, according to Berkshire Bank’s Ellen Steinfeld, head of consumer lending and payments:
Expect home listings to remain tight. That’s because those who financed their homes during the low-rate era are staying in their homes for longer. Even those who were looking to downsize are staying put. Financially, it doesn’t make sense to sell if you also have to buy at these rates. Usually, people try and sell their home before bidding on a new one, but right now it’s the other way around, said Steinfeld, who’s based in Long Island, N.Y.
This also means home prices are unlikely to drop. In certain cases people are paying more than the asking price, engaging in bidding wars. “I anticipate during the remainder of this year we’ll continue to see price appreciation,” Steinfeld noted.
Finally, even though interest rates will likely drop a smidge by late 2024, they won’t reverse anywhere as quickly as their speedy rise postpandemic. Meanwhile, buyers can do cheaper 3- or 5-year adjustable rate mortgages and refinance when rates drop.
“The cost of refinancing is reasonable enough,” Steinfeld said.
We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we believe in. Pricing and availability are subject to change.
Kelly Suzan Waggoner
March 13, 2024 at 10:46 AM
Mortgage rates appear to be dropping on popular 30-year terms as of Wednesday, March 13, 2024. The current average rate for a 30-year mortgage is 6.90% for purchase and 6.84% for refinance, down slightly from Tuesday’s 6.95% for purchase and 6.94% for refinance. The average rate on a 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage is 7.02%.
Rates on 15-year and 20-year terms increased moderately after Consumer Price Index data released on March 12 showed a month-over-month increase in consumer prices, a widely used indicator for inflation.
Purchase rates for Wednesday, March 13, 2024
30-year fixed rate — 6.90%
20-year fixed rate — 6.70%
15-year fixed rate — 6.49%
10-year fixed rate — 6.37%
5/1 adjustable rate mortgage — 6.46%
30-year fixed FHA rate — 6.71%
30-year fixed VA rate — 7.01%
30-year fixed jumbo rate — 7.04%
Refinance rates for Wednesday, March 13, 2024
30-year fixed rate — 6.84%
20-year fixed rate — 6.71%
15-year fixed rate — 6.53%
10-year fixed rate — 6.36%
5/1 adjustable rate mortgage — 6.33%
30-year fixed FHA rate — 6.75%
30-year fixed VA rate — 7.78%
30-year fixed jumbo rate — 6.99%
Current mortgage rates for March 13, 2024
Inflation has slowed in recent months, and market conditions are favorable, with the Biden Administration announcing more student loan forgiveness on February 21. While the Fed rate does not determine mortgage rates, it sets benchmarks that indirectly affect rates on financial products like mortgages, personal loans and deposit accounts. The Fed has a firm goal of a 2% inflation rate, and with favorable economic reports on the job market, it’s unlikely the reserve will cut rates until that goal is more of a reality.
Mortgage rates in the news
After increasing the target interest rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, the Federal Reserve — the U.S.’s central bank — held rates steady at 5.25% to 5.5% at its meeting in late January. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on March 6, 2023, to House lawmakers signaled hesitance to cut rates, with a decision dependent on “see[ing] a little more data” that inflation will return to the Fed’s 2% target.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet next week on March 19 and March 20, but economists aren’t expecting a cut to the target interest rate just yet, with market watchers telling Yahoo Finance on Tuesday that a cut is “more likely” to come this summer.
The Fed’s cut to target rates later in the year could push average mortgage rates even lower — a boon to future homebuyers.
Frequently asked questions about mortgage rates
What is a mortgage rate? The rate of interest paid by the borrower to a lender for the length of a loan term. There are two types of rates: fixed and variable. Fixed rates remain the same over the life of the loan, while variable rates fluctuate based on market conditions.
What are mortgage lenders? Lenders are financial institutions that loan money to homebuyers. A lender is different from a loan servicer, which typically handles the operational tasks of your loan, like processing payments, talking directly with borrowers and sending monthly statements.
What does it mean to refinance a mortgage? It’s a process of trading in your current mortgage to another lender for lower rates and better terms than your current loan. With a refinance, the new lender pays off your old mortgage and you then pay your monthly statements from the new lender.
What factors influence mortgage rates? Mortgage rates are determined by many factors that include inflation rates, economic conditions, housing market trends and the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate. Lenders also consider your personal credit score, the amount available for your down payment, the property you’re interested in and other terms of the loan you’re requesting, like 30-year or 15-year offers.
How do I get the best mortgage rate? Knowing your credit score can help you shop around for lenders you’re likely to get approval through, as well as understand the type of mortgage for your lifestyle and income. The best mortgage rates typically go to borrowers with good to excellent credit — typically a FICO credit score of at least 670 — though even with fair credit, you may be able to find a mortgage offering decent rates. Many lenders offer lower rates in exchange for “mortgage points” — upfront fees you pay to your lender.
Fixed rate vs. adjustable rate — what’s the difference? Fixed-rate mortgages offer a consistent interest rate over the life of your loan, whereas adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) typically start with a lower fixed rate for an agreed-on time and then adjust to a variable rate based on market conditions for the remainder of your term. With an ARM, you could end up paying more or less after your initial rate. Choosing between these two rates depends on your financial goals and tolerance for risk.
When is the best time to lock in a mortgage rate? Mortgage rates can fluctuate daily, so it’s best to lock in a rate when you’re comfortable with the offered rate and conditions of the loan.
Can I negotiate my mortgage rate? It’s not likely — lenders consider the market conditions and other financial factors when determining rates. You can, however, ask about how you can reduce costs in other ways when comparing mortgage lenders.
National mortgage rates were mostly lower compared to a week ago, according to rate data collected by Bankrate. Rates for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed and jumbo mortgages each moved lower, while rates for adjustable rate mortgages rose.
While it’s expected that rates will gradually come down this year, it may not be a straight downward path.
At its Jan. 31 meeting, the Federal Reserve announced it would hold off changing rates, but could cut rates in the future. The Fed meets again on March 20, where they’ll announce an updated outlook. Rate fluctuations affect many areas of the economy, including the 10-year Treasury, a key benchmark for fixed-rate mortgages.
“Where the 10-Year Treasury yield goes, mortgage rates will follow,” says Ken Johnson of Florida Atlantic University. “In roughly the last two months, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 50 basis points. Depending on the source, the 30-year mortgage rate is up 48 basis points. Treasurys’ path remains a coin toss at this point.”
Rates last updated March 5, 2024.
These rates are marketplace averages based on the assumptions here. Actual rates displayed within the site may vary. This story has been reviewed by Suzanne De Vita. All rate data accurate as of Tuesday, March 5th, 2024 at 7:30 a.m.
30-year mortgage retreats, -0.09%
Today’s average rate for the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.25 percent, a decrease of 9 basis points over the last week. Last month on the 5th, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was lower, at 7.10 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay principal and interest of $682.18 for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s $6.11 lower, compared with last week.
The 30-year mortgage is the most popular option for borrowers. It has a number of advantages. Among them:
Lower monthly payment: Compared to a shorter term, such as 15 years, the 30-year mortgage offers lower, more affordable payments spread over time.
Stability: With a 30-year fixed mortgage, you lock in a set principal and interest payment, making it easier to plan your housing expenses for the long term. Keep in mind: Your monthly housing payment can still change if your homeowners insurance premiums and property taxes go up or, less likely, down.
Buying power: With lower payments, you might qualify for a larger loan amountor a more expensive home.
Flexibility: Lower monthly payments can free up some of your monthly budget for other goals, like building an emergency fund, contributing to retirement or college tuition, or saving for home repairs and maintenance.
Learn more: What is a fixed-rate mortgage and how does it work?
15-year mortgage rate eases, -0.06%
The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed mortgage is 6.70 percent, down 6 basis points from a week ago.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed mortgage at that rate will cost roughly $882 per $100,000 borrowed. The bigger payment may be a little more difficult to find room for in your monthly budget than a 30-year mortgage payment, but it comes with some big advantages: You’ll save thousands of dollars over the life of the loan in total interest paid and build equity much more quickly.
5/1 ARM rate moves higher, +0.12%
The average rate on a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.31 percent, up 12 basis points over the last week.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, are mortgage loans that come with a floating interest rate. To put it another way, the interest rate will change at regular intervals, unlike fixed-rate mortgages. These types of loans are best for those who expect to sell or refinance before the first or second adjustment. Rates could be materially higher when the loan first adjusts, and thereafter.
While borrowers shunned ARMs during the pandemic days of super-low rates, this type of loan has made a comeback as mortgage rates have risen.
Monthly payments on a 5/1 ARM at 6.31 percent would cost about $620 for each $100,000 borrowed over the initial five years, but could increase by hundreds of dollars afterward, depending on the loan’s terms.
Current jumbo mortgage rate retreats, -0.10%
The average jumbo mortgage rate today is 7.28 percent, down 10 basis points over the last seven days. This time a month ago, the average rate on a jumbo mortgage was lesser at 7.16 percent.
At the average rate today for a jumbo loan, you’ll pay $684.21 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s lower by $6.81 than it would have been last week.
Refinance rates
Current 30 year mortgage refinance rate climbs, +0.01%
The average 30-year fixed-refinance rate is 7.25 percent, up 1 basis point from a week ago. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed refinance was lower at 7.19 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $682.18 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s $0.68 higher compared with last week.
Where are mortgage rates heading?
With inflation still above the Fed’s 2 percent goal and the job market holding strong, the Fed isn’t likely to cut rates at its March meeting.
“The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the first half of this year, in my view,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, “but rate cuts of three, four or even five rounds will be possible in the second half of the year as rent measures will be much more well-behaved.”
The rates on 30-year mortgages mostly follow the 10-year Treasury, which shifts continuously as economic conditions dictate, while the cost of variable-rate home loans mirror the Fed’s moves.
These broader factors influence overall rate movement. As a borrower, you could be quoted a higher or lower rate compared to the trend.
What these rates mean for you and your mortgage
While mortgage rates change daily, it’s unlikely we’ll see rates back at 3 percent anytime soon. If you’re shopping for a mortgage now, it might be wise to lock your rate when you find an affordable loan. If your house-hunt is taking longer than anticipated, revisit your budget so you’ll know exactly how much house you can afford at prevailing market rates.
To help you uncover the best deal, get at least three loan offers, according to Freddie Mac research. You don’t have to stick with your bank or credit union, either. There are many types of mortgage lenders, including online-only and local, smaller shops.
“All too often, some [homebuyers] take the path of least resistance when seeking a mortgage, in part because the process of buying a home can be stressful, complicated and time-consuming,” says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate. “But when we’re talking about the potential of saving a lot of money, seeking the best deal on a mortgage has an excellent return on investment. Why leave that money on the table when all it takes is a bit more effort to shop around for the best rate, or lowest cost, on a mortgage?”
More on current mortgage rates
Methodology
Bankrate displays two sets of rate averages that are produced from two surveys we conduct: one daily (“overnight averages”) and the other weekly (“Bankrate Monitor averages”).
The rates on this page represent our overnight averages. For these averages, APRs and rates are based on no existing relationship or automatic payments.
Learn more about Bankrate’s rate averages, editorial guidelines and how we make money.
We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we believe in. Pricing and availability are subject to change.
March 1, 2024 at 9:41 AM
We start a new month with relatively steady mortgage rates, with 30-year fixed rates dropping to 7.12% and 15-year fixed rates hitting 6/57%. 5/1 ARM rates ticked slightly higher, hitting 6.55% and 30-year fixed refinancing is coming in at 7.10%. Though adjusting slightly by basis points, these numbers are fairly consistent in the first two months of the year. Rates were starting to trend in an unfavorable direction, with rates hitting the highest numbers since December 2023, but things have cooled slightly. This downward direction may be in anticipation of the latest inflation reports coming out soon. Predictions of a bumpy road for potential homebuyers seem to be a reality now, as rates are not falling as quickly as hoped. An overall downward trend is expected, but as of today, Friday, March 1, 2024, here’s where the numbers stand.
30-year fixed rates are 7.12%
15-year fixed rates are 6.57%
5/1 adjustable rate mortgages are 6.55%
30-year fixed refinance rates are 7.10%
The unchanged interest rates by the Federal Reserve have mostly positively impacted mortgage rates. Inflation has slowed in recent months, and market conditions are favorable with more student loan forgiveness announced today. Fed governor Christopher Waller believes the 2% inflation target rate is on the horizon. While the Fed rate does not determine mortgage rates, it sets benchmarks and impacts other rates, like mortgages.
Current Mortgage Rates for March 1, 2024
The National Association of Realtors does expect mortgage rates to steady in the 6% range by year’s end, but it will take a lot of ups and downs to arrive there ultimately. The Fed has a firm 2% inflation rate goal and with favorable economic reports on the job market, it’s unlikely they will cut rates until that goal becomes more of a reality. The latest announcement from the Fed kept rates steady again, signaling things are on the right track and hopeful homebuyers may have a more favorable market in 2024.
Daily Mortgage Rate Frequently Asked Questions
What is a mortgage rate? The rate of interest paid by the borrower to a lender for the length of a loan term. There are two types of rates: fixed and variable. Fixed remains the same and variable rates will fluctuate based on market conditions after a certain amount of time.
What are mortgage lenders? They are financial institutions that loan money to homebuyers. They are different from a loan servicer, which typically handles the operational tasks of your loan, like processing payments, conversing directly with borrowers and sending monthly statements.
What does it mean to refinance a mortgage? This is essentially trading in your current mortgage to another lender for more favorable rates and/or terms for your current loan. The new lender pays off your old mortgage and you then owe the new lender a monthly payment.
What factors influence mortgage rates? Mortgage rates are impacted by many factors, including inflation rates, economic conditions, housing-market trends, and the Federal Reserve’s policies. Lenders will also consider your credit score, down payment amount and other terms of the loan you’re requesting, like 30-year or 15-year offers.
How do I get the best mortgage rate? The best way to secure a good mortgage rate is to maintain a good credit score, have a stable income, shop around and research lenders, as well as understand and consider different types of loan options that are most suitable for your life and income. In some cases, increasing the down payment amount can result in better rates, too.
What is the difference between a fixed or adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)? Fixed-rate mortgages offer a consistent interest rate throughout the period of the loan, whereas ARMs will typically start with a lower fixed rate for an agreed-upon time frame (e.g., 5-year ARM would have a fixed rate for the first 5 years) but will adjust to a variable interest rate based on market conditions for the remainder of the loan term. So, you could wind up paying more or less than your initial rate. Choosing between them depends on individual financial goals and risk tolerance.
When is the best time to lock in a mortgage rate? Mortgage rates can fluctuate daily, so it’s best to lock in a rate when you’re comfortable with the offered rate and conditions of the loan. Market conditions will impact the rates offered, so it’s important to pay attention to the changes.
How does the Federal Reserve impact mortgage rates? The Federal Reserve’s changes to rates for federal funds can influence short-term and long-term interest rates, which indirectly impacts mortgage rates, but it is an important distinction to know that mortgage rates are not directly determined by the Fed.
Can I negotiate my mortgage rate? Lenders set their rates using many factors so there may not be room to negotiate. You can, however, discuss options for reducing costs in other ways with your potential vendors.
What is the average mortgage rate in the US? Mortgage rates fluctuate and can vary based on loan terms, economic conditions, and individual qualifications. Checking current rates from different lenders will give you the best sense of rates each day.
We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we believe in. Pricing and availability are subject to change.
February 22, 2024 at 9:50 AM
While mortgage rates are relatively steady from yesterday’s numbers, overall averages are higher than they were last week. 30-year-fixed mortgages are 7.28%, which is one basis point lower than yesterday, but overall higher than it has been since early December 2023. 15-year fixed loan terms also increased, landing at 6.70%, while 30-year fixed refinance rates dropped slightly, hitting 7.28%. Predictions of a bumpy road for potential homebuyers seem to be a reality now, as rates are not falling as quickly as hoped. An overall downward trend is expected, but as of today, Wednesday, February 22, 2024, here’s where the numbers stand.
30-year fixed rates are 7.28%
15-year fixed rates are 6.70%
5/1 adjustable rate mortgages are 6.16%
30-year fixed refinance rates are 7.27%
The unchanged interest rates by the Federal Reserve have mostly positively impacted mortgage rates. Inflation has slowed in recent months, and market conditions are favorable with more student loan forgiveness announced today. Fed governor Christopher Waller believes the 2% inflation target rate is on the horizon. While the Fed rate does not determine mortgage rates, it sets benchmarks and impacts other rates, like mortgages.
Current Mortgage Rates for February 22, 2024
The National Association of Realtors does expect mortgage rates to steady in the 6% range by year’s end, but it will take a lot of ups and downs to arrive there ultimately. The Fed has a firm 2% inflation rate goal and with favorable economic reports on the job market, it’s unlikely they will cut rates until that goal becomes more of a reality. The latest announcement from the Fed kept rates steady again, signaling things are on the right track and hopeful homebuyers may have a more favorable market in 2024.
Daily Mortgage Rate Frequently Asked Questions
What is a mortgage rate? The rate of interest paid by the borrower to a lender for the length of a loan term. There are two types of rates: fixed and variable. Fixed remains the same and variable rates will fluctuate based on market conditions after a certain amount of time.
What are mortgage lenders? They are financial institutions that loan money to homebuyers. They are different from a loan servicer, which typically handles the operational tasks of your loan, like processing payments, conversing directly with borrowers and sending monthly statements.
What does it mean to refinance a mortgage? This is essentially trading in your current mortgage to another lender for more favorable rates and/or terms for your current loan. The new lender pays off your old mortgage and you then owe the new lender a monthly payment.
What factors influence mortgage rates? Mortgage rates are impacted by many factors, including inflation rates, economic conditions, housing-market trends, and the Federal Reserve’s policies. Lenders will also consider your credit score, down payment amount and other terms of the loan you’re requesting, like 30-year or 15-year offers.
How do I get the best mortgage rate? The best way to secure a good mortgage rate is to maintain a good credit score, have a stable income, shop around and research lenders, as well as understand and consider different types of loan options that are most suitable for your life and income. In some cases, increasing the down payment amount can result in better rates, too.
What is the difference between a fixed or adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)? Fixed-rate mortgages offer a consistent interest rate throughout the period of the loan, whereas ARMs will typically start with a lower fixed rate for an agreed-upon time frame (e.g., 5-year ARM would have a fixed rate for the first 5 years) but will adjust to a variable interest rate based on market conditions for the remainder of the loan term. So, you could wind up paying more or less than your initial rate. Choosing between them depends on individual financial goals and risk tolerance.
When is the best time to lock in a mortgage rate? Mortgage rates can fluctuate daily, so it’s best to lock in a rate when you’re comfortable with the offered rate and conditions of the loan. Market conditions will impact the rates offered, so it’s important to pay attention to the changes.
How does the Federal Reserve impact mortgage rates? The Federal Reserve’s changes to rates for federal funds can influence short-term and long-term interest rates, which indirectly impacts mortgage rates, but it is an important distinction to know that mortgage rates are not directly determined by the Fed.
Can I negotiate my mortgage rate? Lenders set their rates using many factors so there may not be room to negotiate. You can, however, discuss options for reducing costs in other ways with your potential vendors.
What is the average mortgage rate in the US? Mortgage rates fluctuate and can vary based on loan terms, economic conditions, and individual qualifications. Checking current rates from different lenders will give you the best sense of rates each day.
What are the current mortgage rate loan types?
30-Year Fixed Rate
20-Year Fixed Rate
15-Year Fixed Rate
10-Year Fixed Rate
7-Year ARM
5-Year ARM
3-Year ARM
Current refinance mortgage rates for February 2024
The interest rate freeze proposal has just been unveiled by the Bush Administration, a plan which could help as many as 1.2 million borrowers stay in their homes.
“There is no perfect solution,” President Bush said Thursday as he announced the agreement reached among a slew of mortgage industry players. “The homeowners deserve our help. The steps I’ve outlined today are a sensible response to a serious challenge.”
Bush was quick to explain that the plan wasn’t a bailout, claiming the proposed interest rate freeze would only benefit responsible homeowners.
“We should not bail out lenders, real estate speculators or those made the reckless decision to buy a home they knew they could never afford,” Bush said after meeting with industry leaders at the White House. “But there are some responsible homeowners who could avoid foreclosure with some assistance.”
He also noted that thousands of borrowers have been sent letters about their options, and that aid would only come to those who asked for it, urging at-risk homeowners to call the new telephone hotline at 1-888-995-HOPE.
The president had originally given out the wrong phone number for the hotline, which was later corrected by White House staff.
Bush also played a bit of the blame game, saying the Democratic-controlled Congress “has not sent me a single bill to help homeowners.”
Hillary Clinton called Bush’s plan “too little, too late”, referring to the fact that it would exclude the 400,000 homeowners whose mortgage rates have or will reset in the final three months of 2007.
Fed Chief Ben Bernanke released a statement saying, “The streamlined process for refinancing and modifying sub-prime adjustable rate mortgages announced today is a welcome step in helping Americans protect their homes and communities from the consequences of unnecessary foreclosures.”
Meanwhile, the S&P said the mortgage freeze plan may lead to more downgrades on mortgage bonds because loan modifications will lead to reduced payments to investors.
Shares of the top U.S. mortgage lender, Countrywide Financial (CFC), rose $1.68, or 16.12%, to $12.10 on the news.
That said, here are the details regarding the “interest rate freeze proposal” unveiled today:
In order to qualify for an interest-rate freeze, you must have received your mortgage sometime between January 1, 2005 and July 31, 2007, and you need to be facing an interest rate reset sometime between January 1, 2008 and July 31, 2010.
If you fall within this range, you may be eligible to have your interest rate frozen for five years, though you won’t qualify if you are able to make payments at the higher adjustable rate, or if you can’t make payments at the original teaser rate.
The plan is focused on first-lien, 2/28 and 3/27 ARMs for borrowers who are no more than 30 days behind on their mortgage payment.
It only applies to owner-occupied properties, so investment property owners need not apply.
According to a source briefed on the plan, borrowers who have 3 percent or more home equity would also not be eligible for the freeze, and borrowers with credit scores below 660 will be first in line.
The plan identifies three classes of at-risk borrowers:
– Strong borrowers facing an interest-rate reset will be helped into FHA fixed-rate mortgages, and won’t be eligible for an interest rate freeze.
– Borrowers with credit scores below 660 that have not increased by 10 percent since the origination of the mortgage in question will be fast-tracked for a loan modification, though borrowers with higher scores may also qualify.
– And finally struggling borrowers who aren’t able to afford even a modified loan will end up facing foreclosure.
It looks like the proposal will only help a small group of homeowners, though others will receive assistance from individual mortgage lenders and through other government agencies like the FHA.
According to a CreditSights report released Tuesday, the Bush Administration’s recent mortgage interest rate freeze proposal will likely create more problems than solutions for most homeowners.
The report claims the freeze plan will undermine the viability of the secondary market that has played a key role in providing mortgage loans, and will set in place similar expectations for Alt-A borrowers who face resets in coming years.
Creditsights analyst Christian Stracke noted that fifty percent of mortgage loans since 2002 have been made available via lending from the securitization markets, and said loan modifications would reduce the value of residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS).
“The potential contagion into the broader RMBS market could jeopardize the extension of credit through the securitization market, further undermining the benefits generated from the modification plan,” said Stracke.
He also argued that Alt-A mortgage resets could turn out to be just as bad as their subprime brethren, forcing the government to step in yet again to assist another set of at-risk borrowers.
“The combination of option adjustable rate mortgages and traditional Alt-A adjustable rate mortgage resets will be just as bad, if not worse, in terms of the absolute par loan dollar amount as the subprime reset problem, although it is not set to peak until 2010-2011,” Stracke said.
“Assuming the housing market has not shaken off the current slump by 2010, the wave of resets could create yet another wave of foreclosures among a class of homeowners that is going to remember the forbearance offered to subprime borrowers all too vividly,” he added.
Stracke also believes homeowners will lie about their income, and/or intentionally damage their credit scores to attain eligibility for the loan modification program.
“We find it hard to believe that borrowers who have too much income and/or too high credit scores to qualify for the modification will not find some way to convince their mortgage servicers that they do in fact qualify,” he wrote.
“The incentive to lie, or even to damage one’s own credit score, is too high,” he added.
Many people mistakenly believe they can’t afford to buy a home because they don’t really know what their options are. Fortunately, home loans are not one-size-fits-all. There are various mortgages available to suit your budget and preferences.
So, before you start visiting open houses, take some time to familiarize yourself with the different home loans that are available. Going into the home buying process informed could help you save a lot of money on your down payment, interest, and fees.
The 8 Types of Mortgage Loans Available
Understanding the different types of mortgage loans will help you choose the option that’s best suited for you. Let’s look at a brief overview of the eight types of mortgages available in 2024.
1. Conventional Loans
A conventional loan is a mortgage that’s not issued by the federal government. There are two different types of conventional mortgages you can choose from: conforming and non-conforming loans.
A conforming loan falls within the guidelines laid out by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. You’ll take out a conforming loan through a private lender like a bank, credit union, or mortgage company. Since the government doesn’t guarantee the loan, conventional mortgages typically come with more stringent lending requirements.
According to the CFPB, the maximum loan amount for a conventional loan is $484,350. However, it may be as high as $726,525 in counties with a high cost of living. You’ll have to take out private mortgage insurance (PMI) if you don’t have a 20% down payment.
Conventional loans are fixed-rate mortgages, which means your monthly mortgage payment remains the same throughout the entire life of the mortgage loan. The terms typically range from 10 to 30 years:
30-year fixed-rate mortgage
20-year fixed-rate mortgage
15-year fixed-rate mortgage
10-year fixed rate mortgage
Pros:
It can be used to purchase a primary home or an investment property
Tends to cost less than other types of loans
You can cancel your private mortgage insurance (PMI) once you reach 20% equity in your home
Cons:
Must have a minimum FICO score of 620 or higher
Harder to qualify for than government-backed loans
You’ll need to have a low debt-to-income ratio to qualify
2. Conventional 97 Mortgage
A conventional 97 mortgage is similar to a conventional loan in that it’s widely available to various borrowers. The main difference is that with this type of home loan, you only have to pay a 3% down payment.
The program is available for first-time and repeat home buyers. However, it must be your primary place of residence, and the maximum loan amount is $510,400.
Pros:
Widely available to most borrowers
Only requires a 3% down payment
Available for first-time and repeat homebuyers
Cons:
Cannot be used to purchase investment properties
The maximum loan amount is $510,400
Requires a minimum FICO score of 660 or higher
3. FHA Loans
FHA loans are backed by the Federal Housing Administration and are a popular option for first-time home buyers. To qualify, you need to have a 3.5% down payment and a minimum credit score of 580.
If you have a credit score of 500 or higher, you can qualify for an FHA loan with a 10% down payment. These flexible requirements make FHA loans a suitable option for borrowers with bad credit.
To qualify for an FHA home loan, you must have a debt-to-income ratio of 43% or less. These loans can’t be used to purchase investment properties, and your home must meet the FHA’s lending limits.
These limits vary by state, so you’ll need to check the FHA’s website to see what the guidelines are for your area.
Pros:
Loans come with low down payment options
A viable option for borrowers with bad credit
Available for first-time and repeat homeowners
Cons:
Loans can’t be taken out for investment properties
If your credit score is below 580, a 10% down payment is required
You must have a debt-to-income ratio below 43%
Mandatory mortgage insurance premiums
4. FHA 203(k) Rehab Loans
An FHA 203(k) rehab loan is sometimes referred to as a renovation loan. It allows home buyers to finance the purchase of their home and any necessary renovations with a single loan.
Many people purchase older homes to fix them up. Instead of taking out a mortgage and then applying for a home renovation loan, you can accomplish both within a single mortgage.
A rehab loan is similar to an FHA loan in that you’ll need a 3.5% down payment. However, the credit requirements are stricter, and you’ll need a minimum credit score of 640 to qualify.
Pros:
Allows you to buy a home and finance the remodel within one mortgage
Requires a minimum 3.5% down payment
Easier to qualify since the FHA backs your loan
Cons:
Credit requirements are more stringent than typical FHA loans
You must hire approved contractors and cannot DIY the renovations
The closing process takes longer than other types of mortgages
5. VA Loans
The Department of Veteran Affairs guarantees VA loans. These loans are designed to make it easier for veterans and service members to qualify for affordable mortgages.
One of the biggest advantages of taking out a VA loan is that it doesn’t require a down payment or mortgage insurance premium (MIP). And there are no listed credit requirements, though the lender can set their own minimum credit requirements. VA loans typically come with a lower interest rate than FHA and conventional loans.
To qualify for a VA loan, you must either be active duty military, a veteran or honorably discharged. You’ll need to apply for your mortgage through an approved VA lender.
Pros:
No down payment required
No PMI required
Flexible credit requirements
Cons:
Must be a veteran to qualify
Some sellers will not want to deal with a VA loan
6. USDA Loans
A USDA loan is a type of mortgage that’s available for rural and suburban home buyers. It’s a viable option for borrowers with lower credit scores that are having a hard time qualifying for a traditional mortgage.
USDA loans are backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and they help low-income borrowers find housing in rural areas. USDA loans do not require a down payment, but you will need a minimum credit score of 640 to qualify.
You will need to meet the USDA’s eligibility requirements to qualify for the loan. But according to the department’s property eligibility map, over 95% of the U.S. is eligible.
Pros:
No down payment required
A practical option for low-income borrowers
Available to first-time and repeat home buyers
Cons:
A minimum credit score of 640 is required
Housing is limited to rural and suburban areas
7. Jumbo Loans
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the financing guidelines laid out by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. These loans are unable to be purchased or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
A jumbo mortgage is financing for luxury homes in competitive real estate markets, and the limits vary by state. In 2024, the FHFA raised the limits for a one-unit property to $766,550, increasing from $726,200 in 2023. In certain high-cost areas, the limits for jumbo loans vary, reaching up to $1,149,825. These jumbo loans are for mortgages that exceed the set limits in their respective counties.
If you’re hoping to buy a home that costs more than $1 million, you’ll need to take out a super jumbo loan. These loans provide up to $3 million to purchase your home. Both jumbo and super jumbo mortgages can be difficult to qualify for and require excellent credit.
Pros:
These loans make it possible to purchase large homes in expensive areas
Typically comes with flexible loan terms
Cons:
Jumbo loans and super jumbo loans come with higher interest rates
You’ll need a good credit history to qualify
8. Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs)
Unlike a fixed-rate mortgage, where the interest rate is set for the life of the loan, an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) comes with interest rates that fluctuate. Your interest rate depends on the current market conditions.
When you first take out an ARM, you will typically start with a fixed rate for a set period of time. Once that introductory period is up, your interest rate will adjust on a monthly or annual basis.
An ARM can be a suitable option for some borrowers because your interest rate will likely be low for the first couple of years you own the home. But you need to be comfortable with a certain level of risk.
And if you choose to go this route, you should look for an ARM that caps the amount of interest you pay. That way, you won’t find yourself unable to afford your monthly payments when the interest rates reset.
4 Types of ARMs
There are 4 different types of adjustable-rate mortgages typically offered:
One Year ARM – The one-year adjustable-rate mortgage interest rate changes every year on the anniversary of the loan.
10/1 ARM – The 10/1 ARM has an initial fixed interest rate for the first ten years of the mortgage. After 10 years is up, the rate then adjusts each year for the remainder of the mortgage.
5/5 and 5/1 ARMs – ARMs that have an initial fixed rate for the first five years of the mortgage. After 5 years is up, for the 5/5 ARM, the interest rate changes every 5 years. For the 5/1 ARM, the interest changes every year.
3/3 and 3/1 ARMs – Similar to the 5/5 and 5/1 ARMs, except the initial fixed-rate changes after 3 years. For the 3/3 ARM, the interest rate changes every 3 years and for the 3/1 ARM, it changes every year.
Pros:
Interest rates will likely be low in the beginning.
If you pay the loan off quickly, you could pay a lot less money in interest.
Cons:
Your monthly mortgage payments will fluctuate.
Many borrowers have gotten into financial trouble after taking out an ARM.
Choosing the Right Home Loan
When it comes to choosing a home loan, you need to consider a few key factors. First, you’ll want to think about the type of loan that is best suited to your needs.
Fixed-rate mortgages offer stability and predictability, while adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) can be a viable option for those who expect their income to increase significantly over time. You’ll also want to consider your budget and how much you can afford to borrow, as well as the size of your down payment and the length of the loan term.
It’s also crucial to shop around and compare offers from multiple mortgage lenders. While it’s tempting to go with the first lender you find, it pays to do your homework and see what other options are available.
This can help you get a better rate and more favorable terms on your loan. It’s a good idea to get quotes from at least three different lenders, and to consider both traditional banks and online lenders.
Tips for Getting the Best Rates and Terms
One of the most effective strategies is to improve your credit score. Lenders look closely at credit scores when deciding whether to approve a loan. Those with higher scores are typically offered better terms. You can improve your credit score by paying your bills on time, reducing your debt, and correcting any errors on your credit report.
Another tip is to make a larger down payment, which can help you secure a lower interest rate and reduce the size of your monthly payments. Finally, consider working with a mortgage broker, who can help you shop around and find the best deal.
Bottom Line
As you can see, there are many home loans for you to choose from. The type of mortgage that’s best for you will depend on your current income and financial situation.
If you’re not sure where to start, consider working with a qualified loan officer. They can assess your situation and recommend the option that will be best for you.
After nearly two years of trudging through a frozen housing market, the consensus among mortgage professionals is that the worst of it is over.
The Federal Reserve recently signaled plans to slash interest rates three times in 2024, shifting toward the next phase in its monetary policymaking.
“It finally seems like we are turning a corner and that’s good news after two years of the Fed’s negative perspective that we’ve heard,” Max Slyusarchuk, CEO of A&D Mortgage, said in an interview.
The spread between the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and the 10-year Treasury yield has narrowed after sitting at over 300 basis points, compared to the historic norm of 150 bps.
But how much will the decline in mortgage rates and a narrowing of the spreads breathe life into the dour origination landscape?
“At the end of the day if mortgage rates come down, I don’t just think that’s gonna solve the inventory problem right away,” said Ben Cohen, managing director at Guaranteed Rate.
“There’s still going to be a lag. So my concern is that rates are going to come down but inventory is not going to just all of a sudden be plentiful and now we’re in a situation where home prices get driven up because there is still low inventory. You have all these buyers that have been waiting for rates to come back and now they’re back and all this becomes really competitive again.”
Mortgage professionals say 2024 will be a ‘recovery year’ as markets slowly return to normal. But a combination of factors – high home prices, lack of inventory, elevated rates — temper expectations for even a moderately strong year.
HousingWire interviewed a dozen loan officers and mortgage executives about their strategies for 2024, which mortgage products they expect to be in demand, and the magic rate needed to get sellers and buyers back in the market.
Strategies for 2024
I’m heavily focused on recruiting, improving technology and marketing, empowering the loan officers — by giving them the same technology and marketing support. Whatever I have for me, I will do it for them as well. This way I can help them grow their business.
We will use AI to help with customer service. AI can understand the loan status, a loan profile and AI can respond to the consumer. If they want to know what’s going on with rates, their loan, AI can give them an answer.
The second project I’m working on is having a mobile app where the the client can download the app and use it to take care of their transaction. We are going to shift to using a mobile app so we don’t have to use phone calls, emails and text messages anymore.
— Thuan Nguyen, CEO of Loan Factory, Inc.
A lot of what you hear is very cliche-ish. You have to make more calls, got to call on more people — all that is true.
But I think it’s more complex than that.
A successful loan officer in this market needs a very capable qualified assistant. I think they need to have all systems firing, meaning they’ve got to do the traditional stuff where you’re doing broker open houses, you’re going to open houses, you are doing coffee clutches and breakfasts and all that.
Simultaneous to that, I think you got to be heavily engaged in what I call the ‘virtual war’ and that means you’re driving your social media and you’re in your your subscribing to systems that drive alerts to your database’s activity. And then you have to have a process in a system to manage those alerts and have outreach to those alerts to where you’re capitalizing on them in a quick time.
— John Palmiotto, chief production officer at The Money Store
What people who don’t understand marketing have done is unintentional marketing. They’re just doing what they see everybody else doing and what we’re finding is those who are succeeding today and are going to thrive in 2024 have a lot of intention in their social media.
It’s not social media, it’s social networking. Networking has always been a key component to drive growth and fostering true community with your referral partners and your sphere of influence. So you have to be intentional, you have to be very strategic – understanding the audience that you’re going after and leveraging it as a social networking platform.
— Shane Kidwell, CEO of Dwell Mortgage
We’re now having to put in work every day without necessarily reaping the immediate reward. Staying disciplined to putting in the effort every single day at the absolute highest level even though we’re not going to see the immediate reward.
We’re laying the constant groundwork word doing the agent training. We’re doing it to where some of that is not reaping us rewards here. It’s that type of mindset that we have to have, because luck is hard work meeting opportunity.
— Matt Weaver, VP of mortgage sales at CrossCountry Mortgage
I recently got licensed in the state of Ohio because that’s where I’m from. I have a lot of connections in Ohio. I’m comfortable with lending there because I know I’m very familiar with the area. I think a lot of my friends and family members and circle of influence up there are going to be refinancing in the next six, 12, 18 months and I want to be licensed and ready to go when that time comes so that I can help them.
— Justin McCrone, loan officer at Atlantic Coast Financial Services
Origination goals
I would be happy with doing $65 million to $75 million next year. I left and joined Revolution in 2023 for a couple months with no origination, I’m probably gonna hover around $50 million this year, whereas I did $100 million in 2022 at Guaranteed Rate.
— Larry Steinway, senior vice president of mortgage lending and branch manager of Revolution Mortgage
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has a report on where they think the business is going, you have Fannie Mae on where they think the business is going. We look at all that and then we look at the size of the sales team, who we’ve recruited, what we think how much business will pick up.
I think the first quarter is going to be tough. And I think it’ll pick up once you get past the first quarter spring market and on. So we’re planning for a 20% increase.
— Jon Overfelt, director of sales and principal at American Security Mortgage Corp.
I think I’m doing marginally better than this year. We’re now looking at a declining rate environment versus the rising rate environment. So that will allow people to be more optimistic. I would imagine we’ll be about 10 to 15% better next year than this year.
— Robby Oakes, managing director at CIMG Residential Mortgage
Popular products
Given the rate cycle over the past two years and the record level of available home equity that consumers are sitting on, the second mortgage market is a huge opportunity for originators to serve the cash-out and debt consolidation needs of their clients without touching their low rate first mortgage, make much needed origination income and keep the client close so they can service them again in the next cycle. Home equity is really a no-brainer today.
Non-QM is also a huge opportunity for originators to serve the needs of their clients and make much needed origination income. Originators will be battling it out again next year for purchase and refinance volume again that fall into the standard agency, government, jumbo buckets. The rate and term and cash-out refinance market will rely on rates decreasing, but even if they move to 6% next year, the industry will struggle with refinances.
— Paul Saurbier, SVP of strategy at Spring EQ
There’s a big push for home affordability. So there’s a lot of programs out there for first-time homebuyers based on where they’re actually buying their home and what their income is. There’s incentives for those people to get into the home a little bit cheaper than who’s already been a homeowner and can’t take advantage of those programs.
So to me, it’s still a big first-time buyer market in 2024. I’m not saying there are people that are existing but the people that are existing homeowners are only going to move if they absolutely have to move.
–Ben Cohen, managing director at Guaranteed Rate
I think for sure the non-QMs – the more flexible guideline programs are going to continue to be big, especially for people who are investors or self-employed aging populations.
Obviously for people with good credit, good income, solid assets, the 30-year fixed conventional mortgages is the most amazing program that exists for consumers because you don’t have any risk if rates go up and if rates go down you get to refinance and get a lower rate.
I don’t know if it’s national, but 30% of deals right [in my market in California] now are all-cash and so competing against all-cash is still going to be a concern for folks. So that means our job is not only to get them educated on their loan options, but also to make sure we are solid so we get fully underwritten files, making sure we do a lot of work on the front-end so we’re not missing out on deals.
— Brady Thomas, branch manager at American Pacific Mortgage
Home equity products will continue to be attractive options for homeowners looking for specific needs. Based on the goals of the homeowner, Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) may offer some flexibility. As rates start to tick down throughout 2024, traditional refinances will begin to make more financial sense, as well.
— Michael Merritt, SVP of customer care and default mortgage servicing at BOK Financial
Magic rate?
I would say 5.5%. But the issue is home prices are too high. In order to have the market return to normal, they have to come down a lot more. If rates and prices both come down, it’s easier. But this time, the price might not come down so we have to rely on the rates.
— Thuan Nguyen – CEO of Loan Factory, Inc.
When we get rates in the 5%, I think it’s gonna be fun to be in this business again because people will be willing to leave their 3% interest rate. I think we are going to see (traditional) refinancing transactions really start to kick in in the second half of 2024, 2025.
— Larry Steinway, senior vice president of mortgage lending and branch manager of Revolution Mortgage
I think if we get rates to come down into the 5% range, that’s going to help quite a bit. If people got rates of 7% and 7.5% and they can get a rate at 5%, that’s a refi boom for all of those buyers.
I think rates in the 5%-range or low 6% levels will bring buyers back to the market, but I don’t think we would get a ton of sellers until we have rates in the 4% or low 5%. Somebody who might want to move because they need an extra bedroom or want a bigger backyard won’t move if rates are still at 6% and they’re going from a rate of 3%. But they might do it if they’re getting 4.5%.
— Brady Thomas, branch manager at American Pacific Mortgage
Business was really busy when they were in the low 6% range and the high 5% levels. If you look back earlier in the year when we had the banking crisis hit, business picked up a lot then and that’s about where rates were – in the high 5%, low 6%. I think somewhere in there, you would see a pretty good pickup.
— Jon Overfelt, director of sales and principal at American Security Mortgage Corp.
The question people should be asking is at what rate threshold will sellers come back into the market. Given the average mortgage rate is 3.7%, and considering the pent-up deferred sales pressure is growing each day, our view is that somewhere around 5.5% will be a key threshold to attract sellers in a way that brings supply-demand parity into closer balance.
— Jack Macdowell, chief investment officer at Palisades Group
The number will be different based on the goal of the customer. If customers are looking for home improvement, debt consolidation or other spending goals, Home equity products can be positive at current rates. As rates work back towards 6%, I think you will begin to see more refinance options open up.
— Michael Merritt, SVP of customer care and default mortgage servicing at BOK Financial
Our definition of a magic number indicates the rate at which more than half of the buyers are willing to buy. We have an analytical department that analyzes the purchasing power of the U.S. in the past 40 years and they are saying it’s 6.25%. At 6.25%, a majority of people would say, ‘I’m OK to buy.’ That’s when supply and demand will equalize and your property is not going to drop or rise in value.
Federal Reserve left its key short-term interest rate unchanged again Wednesday, hinted that rate hikes are likely over and forecast three cuts next year amid falling inflation and a cooling economy.
That’s more rate cuts than many economists expected.
The decision leaves the Fed’s benchmark short-term rate at a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% following a flurry of rate increases aimed at subduing the nation’s sharpest inflation spike in four decades. The central bank has now held its key rate steady for three straight meetings since July.
That provides another reprieve for consumers who have faced higher borrowing costs for credit cards, adjustable-rate mortgages and other loans as a result of the Fed’s moves. Yet Americans, especially seniors, are finally reaping healthy bank savings yields after years of paltry returns.
Best high-yield savings accounts of 2023
401(k) boon:Stocks surge, Dow Jones hits all-time high at close after Fed forecasts lower rates
Leaving savings behind:Many Americans are missing out on high-interest savings accounts. Don’t be one of them
Is a soft landing in sight? What the Fed funds rate and mortgage rates are hinting at
Will the Fed raise interest rates again?
The central bank didn’t rule out another rate increase as it downgraded its economic outlook for next year while lowering its inflation forecast. In a statement after a two-day meeting, it repeated that it would assess the economy and financial developments, among other factors, to determine “the extent of any additional (rate hikes) that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference, noting the Fed’s key rate is “at or near its peak.”
while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high after rising 1.4% following the Fed’s signals that it’s probably done lifting rates and is forecasting three cuts next year. The 10-year Treasury was down to about 4% from 4.21% on Tuesday.
Last month, Powell said high Treasury yields, if persistent, likely would constrain the economy and require fewer Fed rate increases,
In its statement Wednesday, however, the central bank didn’t acknowledge the recent decline in Treasury yields, suggesting yields are still relatively high and could spike again, crimping the economy.
“Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation,” the Fed said, repeating the language of its previous statement.
Is inflation really slowing down?
The Fed’s middle-ground approach may have been cemented Tuesday by a mixed report on the consumer price index. The good news was that overall inflation barely budged in November amid falling gasoline prices, pushing down annual price gains to 3.1% from 3.2%, still well above the Fed’s 2% goal.
The Federal Reserve System is the U.S.’s central bank.
When does the Fed meet again?
The first Federal Reserve meeting of the new year will be from Jan. 30 through 31.
Federal reserve calendar
Jan. 30-31
March 19-20
April 30- May 1
June 11-12
July 30-31
Sept. 17-18
Nov. 6-7
Dec. 17-18
The U.S. economy was strong in the third quarter as consumers continued to spend despite high interest rates and inflation.
The value of all services and products generated in the U.S., or GDP, rose at a seasonally adjusted 4.9% for the year in the months spanning July to September, according to the Commerce Department. That was more than twice the 2.1% increase in the previous quarter and the most aggressive pace of growth since the end of 2021 when the economy surged back from a recession sparked by the pandemic.
a recession over the next year, down from the 61% odds forecast in May.
Barclays predicted a loss of roughly 375,000 jobs by the middle of next year. But consumer spending remains robust despite high inflation and interest rates that are making credit card use and consumer loans more expensive. And that may help stave off a recession, says Barclays economist Jonathan Millar.
What does FOMC stand for?
The FOMC is the Federal Open Market Committee, the voting body responsible for setting interest rates. The 12-member committee includes seven members of the Board of Governors and five of the 12 Reserve Bank presidents.
What causes inflation?
Inflation can have many roots. Typically, it’s caused by “a macroeconomic excess of spending over the economy’s relative ability to produce goods and services,” said Josh Bivens, the director of research at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank based in Washington D.C.
That means more people are wanting items and services than there is adequate supply, leading producers to raise prices.
“If everyone in the economy, tomorrow, decided they weren’t going to save any money from their paychecks, and they’re just going to spend every last dollar out of the blue, they would all run to the stores and try to buy things,” Bivens said. “But, producers haven’t produced enough to accommodate that big surge of across-the-board spending. So, you would see prices bid up.”
Inflation can also happen when there are too few producers, or there aren’t enough employees to provide the coveted products and services, Bivens said.
Finally, economies also have some “built-in inflation” to help keep inflation in check. In the U.S., that target is 2%, meaning businesses can raise prices 2% annually year and that shouldn’t overburden consumers. That’s also the typical cost of living raise offered by employers.
Inflation meaning
Inflation is the term for a “generalized rise in prices,” according to Josh Bivens, head of research at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank based in Washington D.C.
Everything from food to rent can become costlier due to inflation. But it is the overall impact that determines what the inflation rate actually is.
“Inflation, though, really is meant to only refer to all goods and services, together, rising in price by some common amount,” Bivens said. The Federal Reserve’s inflation goal is 2%, which means businesses can hike prices by 2% a year and that shouldn’t cause consumers financial distress. Cost of living increases to workers’ pay are also expected to meet that target to ensure consumers can adequately deal with the rising costs of goods and services.
What is CPI?
In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) ‒ a measure of the average shift in prices for different products and services ‒ was 3.1%, down slightly from the month before.
Annual inflation is down dramatically from the 9.1% in June 2022 that marked a 40-year high but remains above the 2% target the Fed sees as the level that signals the rate of price increases is under control.
Why is CPI important?
The Federal Reserve watches two key aspects of the economy, price stability and maximum employment, and those are the main factors it takes into account for its interest rate decisions. The CPI is a primary measure the Fed looks at to help determine if prices are “stable.’’
What is the difference between CPI and core CPI?
Core prices don’t count the volatile costs of food and energy items, giving a more accurate window into longer-term trends.
Are wages going up in 2024?
If you’re deemed a top performer at a company that is offering raises, you’ve got a pretty good chance of getting a pay boost next year.
About 3 out of four business leaders told ResumeBuilder.com they intended to give raises. But half of those company executives said only 50% or less of their staff members would see a pay hike, and 82% of the raises would hinge on performance. For those who do manage to get the salary boost, 79% of employers said the pay hikes would be greater than those given in recent years.
Are U.S. Treasury yields rising?
Not recently.
The 10-year Treasury yield was above 5% in November when the Fed kept rates steady for the second consecutive month the first time it had left the key rate unchanged two months in a row in almost two years.
That led to mortgage rates spiking to almost 8% and pushed up other borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. Stocks meanwhile sank close to a recent low, leading Fed Chair Jerome Powell to say such financial pressures could achieve the same cooling effect on the economy as additional rate hikes.
But in the following weeks, 10-year Treasury yields dipped to 4.2% and stocks rebounded. That might make the Fed resist rate cuts in case the economy heats up and causes the broader dip in prices “to stall at an uncomfortably elevated level,” Barclays says.
Barclays and Goldman Sachs forecast that rate cuts won’t happen until the spring, and that there will be only two, to a range of 4.75% to 5%, with more cuts implemented in the next two years.
When will inflation go back to normal?
It may take a little while.
Inflation’s decline likely “won’t show much progress in coming months,” Barclays wrote in a research note.
Overall price hikes have eased significantly since peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, a four-decade high. And in October, broader inflation as well as core prices experienced a dip, leading to a lower 10-year Treasury yield.
But core prices, which exclude the volatile costs of food and energy, will probably rise 0.3% each of the next three months, Goldman Sachs says. Used cars and furniture have been getting cheaper as the supply-chain shortages of the pandemic end. Meanwhile, health care, auto repairs, car insurance and rent continue to get more expensive, as employers pay higher wages to attract workers amid a labor shortage lingering from the global health crisis.
What is core inflation right now?
Core prices, which leave out the more volatile costs of food and energy, bumped up 0.3% in November, slightly more than the 0.2% uptick seen the previous month. That kept the yearly increase at 4%, the lowest rate since September 2021.
New inflation tax brackets
Inflation may also impact the amount of taxes you have to pay.
The Internal Revenue Service said in its annual inflation adjustments report that there will be a 5.4% bump in income thresholds to reach each new level in next year’s tax season.
In 2024, the lowest rate of 10% will apply to individuals with taxable income up to $11,600 and joint filers up to $23,200. The top rate of 37% will apply to individuals earning over $609,350, and married couples filing jointly who make at least $731,200 a year.
The IRS makes these adjustments annually, using a formula based on the consumer price index to account for inflation and stave off “bracket creep,” which happens when inflation shifts taxpayers into a higher bracket though they’re not seeing any real rise in pay or purchasing power.
The 2024/25 increase is less than last year’s 7% increase, but much more than recent years when inflation was below the current 3.1% inflation rate.
Will Social Security get a raise because of inflation?
Yes, but it will be a lot less than what recipients received in 2023.
The cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, to Social Security benefits will be 3.2% next year. That’s roughly one-third of the 8.7% increase given in 2023, which marked a forty-year high.
The 2024 COLA hike is above the average 2.6% raise recipients have received over the past two decades, but seniors remain concerned about being able to pay their expenses as well as the increasing possibility Social Security benefits will be reduced in coming years, according to a retirement survey of 2,258 people by The Senior Citizens League, a nonprofit seniors group.
How does raising rates lower inflation?
The federal funds rate is what banks pay each other to borrow overnight. If that rate increases, banks usually pass along that extra cost, meaning it becomes more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow as rates rise on credit cards, adjustable rate mortgages and other loans. That’s why the funds rate is the key mechanism used by the Federal Reserve to calm inflation.
Simply put, companies and consumers don’t borrow as much when loans cost them more, and that means an overheated economy can cool and inflation may dip.
Will credit card interest rates continue to rise this holiday season?
The Fed’s string of rate hikes, aimed at easing the highest inflation in four decades, are a big reason credit card interest rates have reached record highs just in time for the holiday season.
Some retail credit cards now charge more than 33% interest, topping a 30% threshold that stores and banks were previously able to bypass but seldom did – until now.
“They can charge that much,” said Chi Chi Wu, a senior attorney at the nonprofit National Consumer Law Center. “Credit cards can actually charge whatever they want. It’s a little-known fact.”
The domino effect of a high benchmark rate and soaring credit card interest could put many Americans in financial straits this holiday season.
Though some consumers are paring back to deal with high prices, rising debt and shrinking savings, the average shopper expects to spend $1,652 this year on holiday purchases, according to the consultancy Deloitte, more than was typically spent in the last three years.
A lot of the buying will be done with credit cards. In an October poll of 1,036 shoppers by CardRates.com, nearly 4 in 10 respondents said they intend to have holiday credit card debt in the new year.
The nation’s collective credit card debt was $1.08 trillion, at the end of September, a record high. And the average interest rate was 21%, the highest ever documented by the Federal Reserve.
Savings account impact of high rates
The upside to the Fed’s string of rate hikes has been that consumers were able to earn good interest on their savings for the first time in years. Even when the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, savers can do well.
Unfortunately, most account holders aren’t making the most of that potential opportunity.
Roughly one-fifth of Americans who have savings accounts don’t know how much interest they’re earning, according to a quarterly Paths to Prosperity study by Santander US, part of the global bank Santander. Among those who did know their account’s interest rate, most were earning less than 3%.
But consumers have time to make a change that could enable them to make more from their savings.
“We’re still a long way from (the Fed) beginning to cut rates,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at financial services platform Bankrate. “This is great news for savers, who will continue to enjoy inflation-beating returns in the top-yielding, federally insured online savings accounts and certificates of deposit. For borrowers, interest rates staying higher for a longer period underscores the urgency to pay down and pay off costly credit card debt and home equity lines.”
The string of Fed rate hikes that began in March 2022 has made it costlier for consumers to borrow as interest rates on credit cards and other loans increased dramatically.
At the same time, inflation has made daily needs more expensive, pushing more Americans to lean on credit cards to get by. But lenders have become more reluctant to issue new cards, so in the midst of the holiday season, more shoppers are seeking higher credit limits, experts say.
In October, the application rate for higher limits rose to 17.8% from 11.2% in the same month the previous year, and from 12.0% in 2019, New York Fed data showed.
For some consumers, a higher limit on a card they already have is about their only option.
“After COVID, inflation and interest rates went out of control … people have less emergency funds for car repairs or buying presents,” said Brandon Robinson, president and founder of JBR Associates, which specializes in retirement strategies. “What they’re doing is using more credit card utilization – over 30% or well over 50% of their credit card allowance – and then can’t get approved for another card because their credit rating is down.”
Inflation is leading more Americans to work multiple jobs
The number of Americans working at least two jobs is at its highest peak since before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to federal data, an uptick that may reflect the financial pressure people are feeling amid high inflation.
Almost 8.4 million people had multiple jobs in October, the Labor Department said, a figure that represents 5.2% of the laborforce, the highest percentage since January 2020.
“Paying for necessities has become more of a challenge, and affording luxuries and discretionary items has become more difficult, if not impossible for some, particularly those at the lower ends of the income and wealth spectrums,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, told USA TODAY in an email.
People may also be moonlighting to sock away cash in case they’re laid off since job cuts typically peak at the start of a new year.
What is the Federal Reserve’s 2024 meeting schedule? Here is when the Fed will meet again.
What is the mortgage interest rate today?
Mortgage rates are falling, so is it time to buy?
It depends.
First of all, the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its actions have an impact. For instance, when the central bank was steadily boosting its key rate, the yield on the 10-year treasury bond went up as well. Because those bonds are a gauge for the interest applied to an average 30-year loan, mortgage rates increased.
But over the past six weeks, mortgage rates have been declining, averaging 7% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. That’s down from almost 7.8% at the end of October, according to data released by Freddie Mac on Dec. 7.
That may be giving some wannabe homeowners the confidence to start house hunting. For the week ending Dec. 1, mortgage applications rose 2.8% from the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
“However, in the big picture, mortgage rates remain pretty high,” says Danielle Hale, senior economist for Realtor.com. “The typical mortgage rate according to Freddie Mac data is roughly in line with what we saw in August and early to mid-September, which were then 20 plus year highs.”
So, many potential buyers may still need to sit on the sidelines, waiting for rates to drop further, says Sam Khater, chief economist for Freddie Mac. Hale and many other experts believe mortgage rates will dip next year.
Interest rate projection 2024
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates next year, though markets and economists disagree about how many rate cuts there will be.
Futures markets forecast there will be four or five rate cuts in 2024, amounting to a quarter of a percentage point each. The cuts, they predict, should start by spring, and ultimately drop interest rates as low as 4% to 4.25%.
But core prices, which leave out the volatile costs of food and energy and are the metric followed more closely by the Fed, ticked up 0.3% in November, higher than the 0.2% increase the month before. That might make the Fed more hesitant to nip rates in the immediate future.
Goldman Sachs and Barclays expect there to be only two rate decreases in 2024. And Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned in recent public remarks that it was “premature” to talk about rate cuts.
November inflation report
Inflation dipped slightly last month, with falling gas prices mitigating the impact of rising rents.
Consumer prices overall increased 3.1% from a year earlier, slightly below the 3.2% rise in October, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index. That slower pace moves the inflation rate nearer to the level, reached in June, that was the lowest in over two years. Month over month, prices increased a slight 0.1%.
Core prices, however, which leave out the more erratic costs of food and energy and which are more closely monitored by the Fed, increased 0.3% in November after rising 0.2% the previous month. That means core inflation’s yearly increase remained at 4%, though it’s the lowest level since September 2021.