The surge in fixed mortgage rates, now hovering at 7.7% according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, is not just a deterrent for potential homebuyers but is also escalating the cost and availability of builder development and construction loans. This double-edged sword is exacerbating the housing affordability crisis. The Federal Reserve’s prolonged monetary policy stance, unexpected … [Read more…]
Let me be contrarian: Get ready, because mortgage rates are going to rise in 2021. Now before you respond, just read the rest as to why.
The Mortgage Bankers Association in its most recent forecast sees two things that stand out. First, 2020 will prove itself to be the second biggest mortgage year in history. Topping $3 trillion will put it only behind 2003 in single family mortgage production history.
Second, the MBA joined the GSEs and other economists who forecast a significant drop in mortgage production in 2021, with most estimating declines in the range of $700 – $800 billion year over year.
Some will try to argue, “but wait, Powell said the Federal Reserve would keep rates low for the foreseeable future! You must be wrong.” There is a difference here. Yes, the Fed will likely keep short rates low, but mortgage rates and some longer-term Treasuries likely won’t enjoy the same ride.
Here are the reasons why upward pressure on mortgage rates could stall the refinance wave and cut overall national originations volume in 2021:
1. The Fed: The Federal reserve is the single biggest buyer of agency mortgage backed securities (MBS) in the world. According to the Urban Institute, “In March the Fed bought $292.2 billion in agency MBS, and April clocked in at $295.1 billion, the largest two months of mortgage purchases ever; and well over 100 percent of gross issuance for each of those two months. After the market stabilized, the Fed slowed its purchases to around $100 billion per month in May, June and July. Fed purchases in July were $104.6 billion, 35 percent of monthly issuance, still sizable from a historical perspective.”
The question is what happens after a covid vaccine and a normalization of economic activity which is expected next year. The Fed is already being very careful not to commit to MBS purchases after the end of this year, a lack of commitment very different to their clear stance on fed funds. If the fed continues to slow or stop, something which is inevitable, the supply imbalance will force rates higher as MBS prices drop in search buyers to take up the excess.
2. The Debt: The national debt is now at 100% of GDP, the highest level since WWII. Per
CBO’s September paper, “By the end of 2020, federal debt held by the public is projected to equal 98% of GDP. The projected budget deficits would boost federal debt to 104% of GDP in 2021, to 107% of GDP (the highest amount in the nation’s history) in 2023, and to 195% of GDP by 2050.”
The CBO’s projections for the U.S. deficits looking forward and the mounting debt load threaten the nation’s ability to do many things, as the majority of spending will be to mandatory expenditures that include interest on the growing debt load. Inflationary pressure will result from the need to finance these deficits through new issuance of treasuries, thus putting upward pressure across the stack of interest rates, a far different outcome than what the Fed may do to keep short rates low.
3. The GSE Capital Rule: The FHFA just closed off the comment window on the proposed capital rule for Fannie and Freddie. This rule is a critical component to FHFA’s plan to release the GSEs from conservatorship. The proposed rule is considered onerous by many with the consensus view stating in comment letters that rates would rise between 20-30 bps. Former Freddie Mac CEO Don Layton, former Arch MI CEO Andrew Reppert, and Fannie Mae each stated the same in their comment letters.
4. The Adverse Market Fee: This arbitrary add-on for most refinance mortgages from the GSEs of 50 bps equates to roughly an increase in rate of .125. This goes into effect on Dec. 1 of this year.
5. Release from Conservatorship: FHFA Director Calabria is working feverishly to release Fannie and Freddie from conservatorship and moving at a pace to lock in as much of this as possible quickly given the risk of an administration change. There have been outcries from MBS investors, including some of the largest buyers.
As reported, in a letter to Mark Calabria, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, PIMCO said freeing the companies by executive fiat would be interpreted by investors as an end to the government’s guarantee of the MBS. “That would boost mortgage rates and force some investors to sell the bonds,” the PIMCO executives said. Investors would demand a higher return for the increased risk. “Mortgage rates will increase, homeownership will likely suffer and the national mortgage rate will no longer exist,” the executives wrote.
For those in the mortgage industry, it doesn’t take all of these things to result in the forecasted 700-800 billion drop next year. Frankly just the slowing of MBS purchases and the implementation of the capital rule alone would do it. In fact, MBA’s forecast of the volume decline assumes only the slightest increase in mortgage rates, remaining in the low 3% range next year. In my conversations with economists, the view is that we will end the year with a good first quarter in 2021 simply based on year end overflow.
The second quarter may start off well, but the general sense is that by the third and fourth quarters the market will reflect the impact of coupon burn out and any of these events above beginning to take shape. One thing for certain is that the Fed does not like being in this deep, we saw that following QE activities during the Great Recession.
As MBA’sFratantoni states in his recent Housing Wire article, “2020 has been a banner year for mortgage originators and the millions of households who have benefitted from record-low rates through refinancing. The industry will enjoy this boom for a while longer, but our expectation is that the refi wave is cresting.”
“Make hay while the sun shines” is an old expression. The sun is clearly shining on our industry this year. But it’s important for mortgage banking executives to not misread the statements of Chairman Powell as a commitment to anything more than short rates. The rally you are experiencing this year is due to interventions in the market due to a pandemic recession. Normalization will take out buyers, eliminate the supply “short,” and inflation will ultimately do its thing on rates just enough to cut the market by 25%-30% in 2021 and a bit more in 2022.
Planning ahead for that environment is critically important as market contractions will reduce spreads as well as volume. Thinking about the appropriate right sizing and forward-looking market strategies now will separate the winners from the rest.
The average 30-year-fixed rate mortgage dropped to 3.05% during the week ending Dec. 23, after achieving 3.12% the week prior, according to the latest Freddie Mac PMMS Mortgage Survey. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.66%.
The 15-year-fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.30% last week, declining from 2.34% the week prior. A year ago at this time, it averaged 2.19%. Mortgage rates tend to move in concert with the 10-year Treasury yield, which reached 1.46% on Wednesday, down from 1.47% a week before.
The report is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.
Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement that the COVID-19 Omicron variant is causing market volatility. Despite the decrease in rates last week, the expectation is that rates will increase in 2022.
“As the year comes to a close, the housing market is proceeding steadily. However, rates are expected to increase in 2022, which will impact homebuyer demand as well as refinance activity.”
Economists expect rates to increase in 2022 but will still be close to record-low levels. The Mortgage BankersAssociation (MBA) forecasts that 30-year mortgage-rates will reach 4% by the end of 2022.
The reasons for rates to climb next year are a more hawkish Federal Reserve, a strongly recovering economy, and large federal budget deficits, according to Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president of research and industry technology.
Rising mortgage rates have already begun to sap demand. According to MBA, mortgage applications fell 0.6% for the week ending Dec. 17. The purchase index fell 3.3%, while the refinance index increased 2.2% from the week prior.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased to 3.22% during the week ending Jan. 6, up from 3.11% the week prior, according to the latest Freddie Mac PMMS Mortgage Survey. A year ago, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 2.65%.
The 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 2.43% last week, up from 2.33% the week prior. A year ago at this time, it averaged 2.16%. Mortgage rates tend to move in concert with the 10-year Treasury yield, which reached 1.75% on Wednesday, up from 1.51% a week before.
This is the second week of mortgage rate increases, after the 30-year fixed rate fell to 3.05% on Dec. 23 amid fears of the Omicron variant.
The report is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.
“Mortgage rate increased during the first week of 2022 to the highest level since May 2020 and are more than half a percent higher than January 2021,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist said in a statement. “With higher inflation, promising economic growth and a tight labor market, we expect rates will continue to rise. The impact of higher rates on purchase demand remains modest so far give the current first-time homebuyer growth.”
How local lenders can remain competitive in 2022’s changing market
As the strong refinance volume of 2020 and 2021 drops industry-wide, lending businesses find themselves at a crossroads: How will they manage the impact of fixed expenses until the next injection of loan volume?
Presented by: Maxwell
Economists expect rates to increase in 2022 but will still be close to record-low levels. The Mortgage BankersAssociation (MBA) forecasts that 30-year mortgage rates will reach 4% by the end of 2022.
Drivers of the rising rates include a more hawkish Federal Reserve, a strongly recovering economy, and large federal budget deficits, according to Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president of research and industry technology.
Rising mortgage rates have already begun to sap demand. According to MBA, mortgage applications fell 2.7% during the two weeks ending Dec. 31. The purchase index fell 32% from two weeks prior, while the refinance index increased 2% during the same time period.
How much do you need to retire? The usual suggestion provided by financial planners and retirement calculators is 75% to 85% (roughly 80%) of your pre-retirement income. But is that really enough money to retire with security? Does the 80% rule-of-thumb work under all circumstances, or is it merely a rough approximation to simplify the retirement planning process? Let’s examine these issues more closely…
Is 80% Of Pre-Retirement Spending A Realistic Budget?
The basis for the 80% spending rule is that your living expenses are expected to decline once you retire thus your spending should decrease without forcing you to lower your lifestyle. For example, you’ll no longer need to purchase expensive professional clothing and your transportation costs will drop without a daily commute to work. Additionally, your children will probably be grown and out of the house, and you will no longer have to fund your retirement savings. You may even have your home paid in full thus eliminating your mortgage payment and you may be in a lower tax bracket. All these factors indicate your spending should drop during retirement.
Unfortunately, the issue is not as clear as it might appear on the surface. The analysis above assumes certain types of spending will decrease while all other spending remains the same. That is not realistic. For example, many new retirees like to hit the open road and see the world thus increasing their travel budgets. Similarly, it is the rare retiree who does not face rising health care costs.
In short, the 80% rule of thumb is a generalization designed to simplify the retirement planning process at the expense of accuracy. It makes many assumptions about your future that may not be true for you. It is no substitute for making a real budget based on your actual plans for retirement, and it could actually jeopardize your financial security. To make this point clear we will examine five reasons why your expenses may actually increase during retirement instead of decrease…
Longer And More Active Retirements
People are living longer and more active retirement lifestyles than ever before. Increasing longevity has made 60 the new 40. If you plan an early retirement so you can sail around the world or take frequent wine-tasting trips to France and Italy, the cost of those leisure activities and travel can easily offset any decrease in work-related expenses. Alternatively, if you are planning an early retirement it will mean you need more money to support a longer life of leisure. A longer retirement means you can’t spend as much investment principal each month, and a more active retirement means you need more savings and income to support a more expensive lifestyle.
Health Care In Retirement
Health care costs have risen steadily and there is every reason to believe that trend will continue. Additionally, your chances of serious illness or need for expensive medications increases with age. A single medical event can be devastating to your retirement savings if you are not prepared, and if you don’t have long term care insurance then assisted living or nursing home expenses can deplete your retirement savings.
Other Ways Expenses Could Rise
Maybe you haven’t paid off your house, or possibly you took out a home equity loan to remodel. The 80% rule-of-thumb assumes you no longer support dependents, but you may still be paying a child’s college expenses. Alternatively, you might be caring for an aging parent who is living in your home. These expenses certainly won’t go away just because you retire.
Lower Taxes May Be Wrong
The assumption that your taxes will drop during retirement could be totally incorrect. After all, if your retirement income level is similar to pre-retirement income then where will the tax relief come from? In addition, growing budget deficits at all levels of government combined with entitlement program problems indicates a greater likelihood of rising tax rates rather than falling tax rates. In short, the idea that your tax rate will decrease during retirement may turn out to be just the opposite.
Spending Statistics Misrepresent Real Spending
Many research studies have been conducted on the spending patterns of the elderly. One of the more famous studies comes from Ty Bernicke in the Journal of Financial Planning where he cites numbers from the U.S. Department of Labor’s Consumer Expenditure Survey indicating that retirees spend less as they age. A typical 75-year-old spends about half as much as the average 45-to-54-year-old. Overall, spending declines about 25% each decade from age 55 to 75.
This appears to be conclusive evidence that spending does in fact decline with age during retirement; however, there are a couple of major flaws in the research. The first problem results from these figures failing to include long term care costs. You can solve that problem with insurance but there is no solution to the next problem…
Bernicke’s analysis was based on a snapshot in time thus it only compares nominal dollar spending and does not adjust for inflation. In other words, it compares the spending habits of a 75 year old today to the spending habits of a 45 year old on the same day. It does not track a 45 year old over a period of 30 years to determine if their spending decreases with time as the study would imply. Instead, it compares the two different groups at a single point in time.
The problem with this approach is it fails to adjust spending for inflation. A mere 3% inflation will double spending in just 25 years which will more than offset the expected reduction claimed by Bernicke’s research. In fact, it could potentially cause an increase in spending – contrary to what his research would imply.
A More Accurate Approach For Determining How Much Money You Need To Retire
In summary, you would be wise to forget the oversimplified rules of thumb when trying to figure out how much money to retire. Your financial security is at stake and you deserve better. Instead, it is far more prudent to develop a realistic budget for your retirement spending based on your actual retirement plans. You don’t have to make it perfect because nobody can predict the future, but you do want to make it as accurate as you can.
A personal budget for retirement is necessary because your life situation is unique. Only you know the financial situation facing your maturing children and aging parents that might affect your budget. Only you know about your globetrotting plans to travel the world for a decade or two before slowing down. That means you will need to add that expense into your budget for a decade or two before removing it. If you have long term care insurance then add the premiums as an expense into your budget, and if you don’t then build a cushion into your savings for self-insurance. In short, develop a plan for retirement and then develop a budget to reflect your plan.
When you complete the budgeting process you may be happily surprised to learn you only need 60% of pre-retirement income making you better off than expected – or your dreams could require 140% of pre-retirement income causing a challenge. This is key to your financial security because the difference between these two numbers can either break the back of your retirement savings or make a meager nest egg look plentiful. Because the range of outcomes is so wide and the stakes are so high, the only realistic solution is to replace the rule of thumb with a carefully developed retirement budget based on your unique needs to figure out how much you really need for retirement.
It is the only prudent thing to do.
About The Author
Todd R. Tresidder is a financial coach who blogs about retirement planning, wealth building and investment strategy. He wrote the book How Much Money Do I Need To Retire teaching you how to overcome the hidden problems behind retirement calculators that threaten your financial security.
At long last, the White House and House Republicans have reached a tentative agreement to raise the debt ceiling. But a deal isn’t over yet: Congress still needs to vote on the deal – far from a guaranteed outcome – and President Joe Biden would need to sign it before the US defaults or misses a scheduled payment.Video above: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks after debt ceiling agreement in principleEvery day that passes without a bill to raise the debt ceiling, the probability of the United States reaching the critical date that it can no longer meet its financial obligations steadily grows.If lawmakers fail to pass the tentative agreement, and they don’t raise the country’s debt limit by early June, the government may confront an unprecedented challenge: determining which bills to prioritize for payment as the Treasury Department grapples with insufficient funds. Debt vs. other payments If the United States doesn’t raise the debt ceiling in time, the Treasury may have to decide whether to make interest payments to its debtholders or to pay its non-debt obligations, such as Social Security, veterans’ benefits, unemployment insurance, food stamps, and running government organizations like the military and the US Centers for Disease Control.The United States government makes millions of payments each day, but the overall economy would pay a far greater price if it were to miss payments on its debt, according to Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. Moody’s Analytics is separate from Moody’s Investor Service, the credit rating agency.If the United States defaults on its debt, it would undermine faith in the federal government’s ability to pay all its bills on time, affecting the government’s credit rating and unleashing massive turbulence in financial markets.Countries with lower credit ratings face higher interest rate costs than those that are viewed as more trustworthy borrowers. The three largest credit rating agencies – Moody’s Investor Service, S&P Global Ratings, and Fitch Ratings – rate borrowers based on their perceived ability to pay back debt. If America’s credit rating were downgraded, that could raise borrowing costs for millions of Americans, sending mortgage, personal loan and credit card rates higher. It could make business’ borrowing costs rise and lead to layoffs – and ultimately a recession.What gets prioritized?Absent a bill passed by Congress and signed by Biden, Treasury will likely do everything in its power to avoid a debt default.In contrast to debt payments, government payments like Social Security or federal worker salaries aren’t considered debt instruments, so they are less likely to come into play when the agencies rate the United States’ debt. Zandi acknowledged that a government decision to pay back bondholders, including foreign governments like China and Japan, over an elderly Social Security recipient will likely be politically unpopular. However, he believes the government would try to prevent a debt default for as long as it can. “The reality is, if they don’t do that, then the economy is going to evaporate, the budget deficits are going to explode, and our interest expense is going to rise because investors are going to demand higher rates,” Zandi said.“A grandmother 10 to 20 years from now looking for a Social Security check will be much less likely to get one. At least not one as large because we’ll be in a much more precarious financial situation.”Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, however, has not said what the Treasury Department would do if the country hits the so-called X-date, when the government can no longer meet all its obligations. In March, she called prioritizing payments “effectively a default by just another name.”Treasury will not be able to make everyone happyOn Friday, Yellen updated her estimate of the X-date, to June 5.Though prioritizing debt payments might stave off an even-greater economic collapse, the United States may not emerge unscathed.In 2011, then-Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner compared the government picking and choosing which bills to pay to a homeowner who pays their mortgage while pushing off their car loan and credit card bills: while that key housing expense is taken care of, that person would likely still have damaged credit.Betsey Stevenson, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan, said no matter which payments Treasury decides to put first, the agency will likely be sued by those left behind. “What should Treasury do? Should it issue new debt it’s not authorized to issue? Should it fail to pay a bill it’s required to pay? Should it fail to honor the debt that the US government has issued? There is no clear legal answer,” she said.“Treasury doesn’t really want to answer that question, and they don’t really want to be in that position.”
At long last, the White House and House Republicans have reached a tentative agreement to raise the debt ceiling. But a deal isn’t over yet: Congress still needs to vote on the deal – far from a guaranteed outcome – and President Joe Biden would need to sign it before the US defaults or misses a scheduled payment.
Video above: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks after debt ceiling agreement in principle
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Every day that passes without a bill to raise the debt ceiling, the probability of the United States reaching the critical date that it can no longer meet its financial obligations steadily grows.
If lawmakers fail to pass the tentative agreement, and they don’t raise the country’s debt limit by early June, the government may confront an unprecedented challenge: determining which bills to prioritize for payment as the Treasury Department grapples with insufficient funds.
Debt vs. other payments
If the United States doesn’t raise the debt ceiling in time, the Treasury may have to decide whether to make interest payments to its debtholders or to pay its non-debt obligations, such as Social Security, veterans’ benefits, unemployment insurance, food stamps, and running government organizations like the military and the US Centers for Disease Control.
The United States government makes millions of payments each day, but the overall economy would pay a far greater price if it were to miss payments on its debt, according to Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. Moody’s Analytics is separate from Moody’s Investor Service, the credit rating agency.
If the United States defaults on its debt, it would undermine faith in the federal government’s ability to pay all its bills on time, affecting the government’s credit rating and unleashing massive turbulence in financial markets.
Countries with lower credit ratings face higher interest rate costs than those that are viewed as more trustworthy borrowers. The three largest credit rating agencies – Moody’s Investor Service, S&P Global Ratings, and Fitch Ratings – rate borrowers based on their perceived ability to pay back debt.
If America’s credit rating were downgraded, that could raise borrowing costs for millions of Americans, sending mortgage, personal loan and credit card rates higher. It could make business’ borrowing costs rise and lead to layoffs – and ultimately a recession.
What gets prioritized?
Absent a bill passed by Congress and signed by Biden, Treasury will likely do everything in its power to avoid a debt default.
In contrast to debt payments, government payments like Social Security or federal worker salaries aren’t considered debt instruments, so they are less likely to come into play when the agencies rate the United States’ debt.
Zandi acknowledged that a government decision to pay back bondholders, including foreign governments like China and Japan, over an elderly Social Security recipient will likely be politically unpopular. However, he believes the government would try to prevent a debt default for as long as it can.
“The reality is, if they don’t do that, then the economy is going to evaporate, the budget deficits are going to explode, and our interest expense is going to rise because investors are going to demand higher rates,” Zandi said.
“A grandmother 10 to 20 years from now looking for a Social Security check will be much less likely to get one. At least not one as large because we’ll be in a much more precarious financial situation.”
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, however, has not said what the Treasury Department would do if the country hits the so-called X-date, when the government can no longer meet all its obligations. In March, she called prioritizing payments “effectively a default by just another name.”
Treasury will not be able to make everyone happy
On Friday, Yellen updated her estimate of the X-date, to June 5.
Though prioritizing debt payments might stave off an even-greater economic collapse, the United States may not emerge unscathed.
In 2011, then-Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner compared the government picking and choosing which bills to pay to a homeowner who pays their mortgage while pushing off their car loan and credit card bills: while that key housing expense is taken care of, that person would likely still have damaged credit.
Betsey Stevenson, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan, said no matter which payments Treasury decides to put first, the agency will likely be sued by those left behind.
“What should Treasury do? Should it issue new debt it’s not authorized to issue? Should it fail to pay a bill it’s required to pay? Should it fail to honor the debt that the US government has issued? There is no clear legal answer,” she said.
“Treasury doesn’t really want to answer that question, and they don’t really want to be in that position.”
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They don’t call it a global economic slowdown for nothing: Evidence is mounting that the BRICs –the world’s big, fast-growing developing economies — are slowing down. Growth in Brazil, Russia, India, and China is expected to slow considerably in 2012, dampening an already weak global economy.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, it’s been powerhouses like China that have helped keep the global economy from total collapse. But if the BRIC economies sputter, what will help sustain the world’s growth engine?
What does BRIC Mean?
The term “BRIC” was first coined about a decade ago by Goldman Sachs, as a way to describe the large, emerging economies which were believed to represent the economic wave of the future. These rapidly growing economies would lift millions out of poverty and provide new markets and growth for developed-world businesses.
For several years, that premise has been mostly right – countries like China and Brazil have grown rapidly, seeing their middle class expand and providing American businesses and investors with greater returns. And they’ve weathered the global financial crisis much better than the US or Europe, continuing to post impressive growth and maintaining budget deficits lower than the developed world’s.
American investors have the BRICs to thank for the relatively buoyant stock market performance of the past year or two, as American businesses’ overseas profits have translated into higher corporate earnings and stock prices at home.
The Future of BRIC Economies
But all that may be coming to an end, suggest some analysts. Not only is growth slowing markedly in some of these economies, but increasing inflation in places like Brazil and India, for example, means that their central banks have a lower margin for reducing interest rates and boosting growth. That means it’s unlikely the large stimulus programs enacted in some BRICs during the 2008 crisis are likely to be repeated soon.
And with the developed world still struggling, these countries may, indeed, need such a stimulus for continued growth. After all, if American and European pocketbooks are still in a fragile state, who will buy all of the products produced in China or Russian commodities?
There’s another, darker view on the BRICs, too, that goes beyond thinking this is a mere slowdown. One line of thought suggests that the rapid growth these countries have experienced in the past 15 years was a one-time phenomenon unlikely to repeat itself. China, for example, benefitted largely from its low wages to lure production facilities and create an export-oriented economy. But wages are now rising in China, and production is moving to even lower-wage countries (and in some cases, even back to the US).
In Brazil and Russia, corruption and commodity dependency continues to plague many sectors of the economy and may stunt growth; already, Brazil’s Q1 2012 GDP growth rate was a mere 0.8%. China’s GDP, which had been growing at or above 10%, is projected to increase only 7.5% this year.
The Bottom Line
Sure, a 7.5% growth rate is still great by US standards, but for a country like China, it may be insufficient to keep reducing poverty at a rapid clip or encourage a transition from an export to a consumption-based economy. And if fears of a housing bubble popping come true, China will need to clean up its own economy, let alone help boost the ailing West.
In such a world, “BRIC” may just be another one of those fashionable terms from a more optimistic era. Just like “globalization” and “Internet”, it may no longer hold the promise of a brighter economic tomorrow.
“Is the Show Over for the BRIC Economies?” was written by Janet Al-Saad, MintLife Managing Editor.
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