Builder confidence rose for the fourth straight month and residential construction stats may now be trying to catch up. Both construction permits and housing starts rose in February compared to both January and February 2023 levels.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) said new residential construction began on a seasonally adjusted pace of 1.521 million units last month. This is 10.7 percent higher than the 1.374 million units reported in January and 5.9 percent more than the level a year earlier.
Single-family starts rose 11.6 percent for the month to a rate of 1.129 million units and were up 35.2 percent year-over-year while multifamily starts increased by 8.5 percent. They retreated however by 35.9 percent on an annual basis.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, construction started on 108,100 units during the month, 79,200 of which were single-family houses. The January numbers were 97,400 and 69,700 respectively.
Permitting also increased, although not as dramatically. Authorizations were at a seasonally adjusted level of 1.518 million, 1.9 percent higher than the 1.489 million estimate the previous month. The year-over-year change was +2.4 percent.
Single-family permits were up 1.0 percent to 1.031 million, 29.5 percent higher than a year earlier. Multifamily permits increased 2.4 percent but lagged the prior February by 32.8 percent.
Permits issued during the month totaled 118,300, up from 114,800. Single-family permits increased from 75,900 to 79,300.
Analysts were on target with their forecasts. Those polled by Econoday had consensus estimate of 1.449 million for starts and 1.500 million for permits.
There were an estimated 124,100 residential units completed in February compared to 97,300 in January. Of those, a respective 81,000 and 61,000 were single-family units. On a seasonally adjusted basis, completions increased 19.7 percent from January and 9.6 percent for the year.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said its index measuring home builder perceptions of the new home market climbed back above the key level of 50 this month. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose 3 points to 51, the highest level since July 2023 and the first time it has surpassed the 50 mark since last July. NAHB economist Robert Dietz said builders are responding to the strong demand for housing and mortgage rates which are below the peak reached last fall.
The HMI survey asks builders for their perception of current single-family home sales, sales expectations for the next six months, and current traffic of prospective builders. The scores for each component form an index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
All three indices posted gains in March. The HMI index charting current sales conditions increased 4 points to 56, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose 2 points to 62 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers increased 2 points to 34.
Dietz also noted that the slightly lower rates are allowing builders to cut back on discounting to boost sales. In March, 24 percent of builders reported cutting home prices, down from 36 percent in December 2023 and the lowest share since July 2023. However, the average price reduction in March held steady at 6 percent for the ninth straight month. Meanwhile, the use of sales incentives is holding firm. Sixty percent of builders offered some form of incentive in March. That share has remained between 58 percent and 62 percent since last September.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased 2 points to 59, the Midwest gained 5 points to 41, the South rose 4 points to 50 and the West registered a 5-point gain to 43.
The Census/HUD report estimates there were 1.666 million residential units under construction at the end of February, 683,000 of them single-family houses. In addition, builders have a backlog of 270,000 permits including 141,000 for single-family residences.
Starts in the Northeast region were down 10.3 percent from January but 16.2 percent higher than the previous February. Permits rose 36.2 percent from January and surged 79.6 percent compared to February 2023.
The Midwest saw gains of 16.4 percent from the prior month and 23.2 percent for the year. Permits increased by 3.8 and 14.9 percent.
Housing starts jumped 15.7 percent and 11.5 percent from the two earlier periods in the South. Permitting dipped by 1.3 percent from January and 5.1 percent for the year.
The West lost ground, with starts falling 7.9 percent and 10.8 percent for the month and the year respectively. Permits were also lower, by 6.8 and 11.2 percent.
I don’t usually dive into odd niche topics like this, but I just spent 12 hours car shopping over the weekend. That’s a lot of test drives and awkward conversations with over-enthusiastic salespeople. Sorry, Clayton, I can’t picture myself driving this car off the lot today…why do you ask?
Long story short, I’ve compared tons of cars recently. Hybrids, as you might know, are always more expensive than their all-gas counterparts. But…aren’t hybrids cheaper to operate? Which means…could they save us money in the long run?! This got my finance brain whirring to life.
I wrote an article in 2020 and updated it in 2023 that covers the real, total cost of car ownership. The cost of car ownership can be broken down into 6 main categories:
Purchase/Depreciation
Financing
Maintenance and Repair
Fuel
Registration/Inspection
Insurance
Financing rates, registration costs, and inspection costs are universal for all cars. There’s no difference between a traditional gas car and a hybrid on those axes.
But we know (or at least suspect) purchase costs, maintenance, fuel, and insurance costs will vary between hybrids and all-gas cars.
A Bird in the Hand…
Aesop wrote in 600 BC that “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.” Or, in modern terms, “I’d rather have a dollar in my hand today than two dollars in 20 years.”
Money today is worth more than money in the future. This is called discounting. And we’ve used this idea before to analyze mortgage costs.
We’re faced with a similar problem today.
When we buy a hybrid car, we spend more on the purchase price today. But, ostensibly, we save operating costs each year we own the vehicle. However, those future savings are worth less than the extra dollars spent today.
Do we save enough on long-term operating costs to compensate for the differences in sticker price and depreciation? That’s the question!
To answer it, we need to:
Understand the differences in costs between gas cars and hybrids (sticker cost, depreciation, fuel costs, insurance costs, maintenance costs).
Determine an appropriate discount rate for this analysis and apply it.
An Appropriate Discount Rate
As of 2022, the average age of all cars on American roads is 12.5 years. That said, the average car owner has their vehicle for 8 years before (most often) selling it or (less often) it breaks down completely.
Therefore, a happy medium duration for today’s analysis is 10 years. We’re going to look at the differences between hybrids and gas cars over a 10-year life.
How much less valuable is a dollar in 2034 than a dollar today?
Warren Buffett uses U.S. Treasury bond rates as his discount rate. I’m inclined to agree with him. It’s “the risk-free rate.” In any analysis, we can ask ourselves, “Would I rather pursue [this risky option], or simply invest my money in U.S. Treasury bonds for a decade or two?” Good enough for Warren, good enough for me.
As of February 2024, the 10-year Treasury rate is 4.3%. The table below shows how to apply that discount rate to future savings.
Example: I could take $74.47 today, invest it in a 4.3% annual interest bond, and I’d have $100.00 in seven years. Thus, if a hybrid car saves me $100 in 2031, it’s precisely the same as having $74.47 in my pocket today in 2024. A bird in the hand…
How Much Does a Hybrid Save Us?
We need an example of two cars to analyze. Since Kelly and I are currently active car market participants (we’re soon to have a “Baby on Board”…by the way, what’s the deal with those stickers?), I’ve been researching the Kia Sorento. Let’s dig into the details of the all-gas Sorento vs. the hybrid Sorento.
All these details I’m about to share with you are shown mathematically in this spreadsheet. Please feel free to make a copy and play around yourself.
To make a copy of a Google Sheet: File –> Make a Copy
Sticker Price and Depreciation Rate
The gas Sorento starts at $31,990. The hybrid Sorento starts at $36,990.
According to iSeeCars, both vehicles will depreciate 53% in their first 5 years.
Gas Expenses
To calculate estimated gas expenses, we need to understand:
how far we drive
our miles-per-gallon efficiency of the cars
and the cost of gas
Depending on your source, the average American drives between 13,000 and 15,000 miles per year. We’ll use 14,000 miles per year for this article.
The Kia Sorento hybrid gets 35 miles per gallon (we’re looking at the all-wheel drive model, thanks to snowy Rochester winters). The all-gas Sorento gets 24 miles per gallon.
Average American gas prices are currently $3.27 per gallon.
We combine those numbers to find out:
The Sorento Hybrid incurs $1308 of gas expenses per year.
The all-gas Sorento incurs $1907 of gas expenses per year
Insurance Costs
The average “full coverage” auto policy costs $2000. Your miles may vary (#carjoke).
Insurance is very personal in that nature. Your driving history and desired coverage level significantly affect the insurance premium.
Nevertheless, we’ll use $2000 per year for the all-gas Sorento. Hybrid insurance costs, on average, 7% more than all-gas models; the Sorento Hybrid will cost $2140 per year.
Maintenance
Most sources cite that hybrid maintenance costs are lower than all-gas engines, as hybrids use regenerative braking (fewer brake replacements), don’t use alternators or starters, and tend to have simpler transmissions.
Unfortunately, I cannot find any sources that provide hard numbers to support this claim! If you find something, please let me know.
Therefore, I’m using an average figure of $600 per year for repairs and maintenance and biasing those dollars towards the end of the cars’ lives. Newer cars break down less and are covered by various levels of warranty.
All-In Costs: Hybrid vs. All Gas
Over our 10-year analysis period, the Kia Sorento Hybrid would cost us $55,662(depreciation + gas + insurance + maintenance), as measured in 2024 dollars.
The all-gas model would cost us $56,491.
Pretty darn close, but it’s a slight nod to the hybrid model. Category-by-category, the results are:
The hybrid costs $3000 more in depreciation costs.
The hybrid saves $4997 in gasoline costs.
The hybrid costs $1167 more in insurance.
And while I’m focusing only on dollars and cents here, there’s an environmental argument too. I won’t dive into the details. But you should probably place a value on environmental costs and benefits (albeit a difficult value to define in dollars and cents).
Of course, this is a perfect example of “average pilot syndrome.” Averages are useful in theory but rarely in practice. You must re-run this analysis for your unique scenario. The first questions that come to mind are:
Which specific model are you looking into? It might not be the Kia Sorento.
What are the miles per gallon ratios of the all-gas and hybrid models?
What are insurance rates like? Not only for your preferred car, but for you?
What are the typical maintenance costs of your desired car?
How does your car depreciate over time?
Should you adjust the discount rate? (PS – you can play around with the spreadsheet yourself, and you’ll see that the discount rate does not change the outcome significantly in this case.)
Was It Worth It?
We’ve covered a lot of conjecture and “what if” questions, made some assumptions, and created a spreadsheet. Is it all worth it?
First, I think I’m directionally accurate. Will the real world play out as I’ve modeled here? Of course not. For all I know, an asteroid will blast our car into smithereens on its first night in the garage (it’ll be a new kind of hybrid; half shrapnel, half vapor). But I think I have a better factual understanding now than I did before. I hope you agree.
This was ~2 hours of work (mainly on the writing, not the math) to optimize an $800 decision. And because I’ve discounted those future dollars, that’s $800 as measured today. Not bad! For some hybrids, this is likely to be a multi-thousand dollar difference. Nice!
Time to unplug, fill up, and peel out.
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-Jesse
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According to Freddie Mac’s annual ARM survey released today, the benefit of choosing an adjustable-rate mortgage as opposed to a standard fixed-rate mortgage has diminished.
“Disruptions in the capital markets beginning in August and an increase in delinquencies on ARM product has led to a sharp decline in interest-rate discounting and a tightening of credit underwriting on ARMs in recent months,” Freddie Mac’s chief economist Frank Nothaft said in a statement.
The Spread Changes Over Time…
ARMs are always discounted relative to fixed mortgages
But how much of a discount you receive
Will vary over time based on lender/investor appetite for certain loan products
Be sure the rate discount justifies the risk of a higher adjustment in the future
“A year ago, the initial rate discount on the popular 3/1 ARM and 5/1 hybrid ARM products was about 1.8 percentage points,” added Nothaft. “In our latest survey, the rate discount had virtually disappeared on these products.”
In recent months, fixed mortgage rates have priced very similarly to ARMs, with the 30-year fixed mortgage averaging 5.87 percent last week, according to Freddie’s latest rate survey.
The one-year averaged 5.37 percent, and the five-year fell to 5.63 percent, but such a slim margin isn’t worth the downside risk to most consumers.
The study also found that introductory teaser rates for ARMs were similar to or above those from a year ago, even though the fed funds rate had fallen from 5.25 percent to 4.25 percent since that time.
Consumers Lost Interest in ARMs as Rates Increased
The ARM loan share hit its lowest point since 2003
Thanks to unattractive starting rates on ARMs
As the market shifted homeowners opted for fixed mortgages
Though the trend can certainly reverse in the future
Accordingly, the total market share of adjustable-rate mortgages began falling in mid-2006, hitting its lowest level since 2003 last October at just 17 percent of loan applications.
“Consumers respond to changes in the relative cost of different loan products. As ARMs became more expensive relative to fixed-rate loans during the closing months of 2007, the ARM share of lending declined,” explained Nothaft.
In previous years when values were rising, ARMs held about 25 to 35 percent of the market, but once the downturn was realized, market share dropped off steadily.
A decade ago, ARMs accounted for just 10 percent of the total loan applications tracked by Freddie Mac.
Nothaft noted that the 5/1 ARM was the most widely available and popular of the adjustable-rate products, offered at more than 90 percent of mortgage lenders examined.
“A 5/1 hybrid ARM provides the consumer the comfort of knowing that the interest rate will be fixed over the first five years of the loan. However, the interest rate may jump as much as five percentage points on the fifth anniversary. Thus, the product has been popular with families who plan to have the mortgage for five years or less,” he said.
Research also revealed that the initial rate on jumbo 1-year ARMs was about one-quarter of a percentage point higher than like conforming loans, the largest gap in seven years, according to Freddie Mac’s surveys.
I made a graph showing ARM market share from January 1995 to November 2007, based on data from Freddie Mac.
It was late 2022 and Mike was feeling the pressure. Mortgage rates had climbed close to the 7% range and he was determined to remain competitive on pricing with rival loan officers in North Carolina.
But there was a problem: pricing exceptions, in which the lender takes the hit, were becoming scarce at his company. So he did what a lot of retail loan officers in the industry were doing — Mike would reclassify a self-generated lead as a corporate-generated lead, thus slashing his compensation from 125 basis points down to as low as 50 bps, giving him a low enough rate to win the client and eventually close the deal. His manager and company bosses knew that he and other LOs were lying about where the lead source came from, he said.
The lower comp rate stung. After Mike paid his loan officer assistant, he was clearing just 40 bps. Still, it was better than nothing. After all, tens of thousands of loan officers had already exited the industry because they couldn’t generate enough business.
“At this time, I didn’t really think of it as an ethical issue,” Mike, whose last name is being withheld for fear of retaliation, told HousingWire in an interview in late November. “But it started to wear on me to where it was like, okay, I’m getting price-shopped left and right. I’m feeling the pressure to cut my pay, because when I do it, and my agent partners, they see that I do that, and then they’ll tell people they refer to me. ‘Hey, he can dig deeper if he really has to.’”
Mike continued: “Well, doesn’t that smack of bad faith if I’m not offering them my best price from jump? I would get people saying to me, ‘I’m not going to go in with you. I don’t feel comfortable with you, because you tried to get me to go for a higher pricing first, and then only offered a better deal once I told you I had another offer.”
Mike said he left that lender in early 2023 as a result of the ‘bucket game’ and refuses to manipulate where lead sources are coming from at his current shop.
“It’s a race to the bottom,” he said of the practice.
Over the past two months, HousingWire has interviewed more than a dozen loan officers, mortgage executives, attorneys and also reviewed several companies’ loan officer contracts and text messages between recruiters and prospects to shed light on the growing issue of pricing bucket manipulation, which critics say distorts market pricing and could represent a violation of fair lending laws.
It’s unknown how many retail lenders are engaged in the practice of falsifying lead sources to lower loan officer pay, but industry practitioners say it’s widespread, and in most cases, reclassifying leads into different pricing buckets before they lock is not permitted by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s rules under Regulation Z.
It’s also unclear whether the CFPB is policing the practice; HousingWire could find no record of enforcement actions taken, and the agency’s audits are not public record.
Evolution of the LO Comp rule
In the wake of the housing crash in 2008, the CFPB created new rules that reshaped how loan officers were compensated. The architects of the new rules wanted to prevent loan officers from taking advantage of borrowers, which was a common occurrence in the days leading up to the Great Recession.
Under an updated Regulation Z, lenders could no longer pay loan officers differently based on terms of loans other than the amount of credit extended. In theory, this means loan officers provide the same service and pricing on loans, reducing the risk of steering.
“LOs also can’t get paid on proxies, and they define proxies to be pretty straightforward: some factor that correlates to terms over a significant number of transactions, and the LOs have the ability to change that factor,” said Troy Garris, co-managing partner at Garris Horn LLP.
But the CFPB did allow loan officers to be compensated differently based on lead sources, which do not fall under the category of terms or proxies and are neither a right or an obligation.
For example, when an existing customer calls the lender’s call center for a new mortgage or refinance, and the lender redirects the loan to the LO, “the LO gets paid less because it was sourced from the company, and it is less work for the LO,” said Colgate Selden, a founding member of the CFPB and an attorney at SeldenLindeke LLP. When it’s an outside lead, “the LOs generated the lead themselves; they are spending time marketing to new borrowers, so they get paid more.”
Attorneys told HousingWire that in the current marketplace, violations of LO Comp rules can arise when lenders and LOs alter compensation by changing the lead source after the initial contact with the borrower to lower their rate and secure the deals. Regulation Z generally does not allow LOs to change which lead source was used.
But, in today’s competitive market, “I do think there’s an incentive, especially on the LO side, to find ways to do something different – and probably also for companies to decide to take more risk,” said Garris. “We believe this is happening because people are frequently asking if there’s a rule change.”
How the ‘bucket game’ works
LOs who spoke to HousingWire said managers often told them they wouldn’t get pricing exceptions on deals, so if they wanted to gain an edge it would have to come out of their pay. Three loan officers at three different retail lenders described it as a feature of their lender’s business model.
“You feel out a prospective client during the initial conversation, get a sense of whether they know how everything works, if they’ve spoken to another lender, if they’re going to shop you, right? And you quote them the best possible rate you could give them that day, knowing that you’ll put them in a bucket just before lock,” said one Wisconsin-based LO. “It doesn’t really matter what you quote them in the initial conversation as long as you can get it below competitors around lock time…either through a pricing exception or the bucket [manipulation].”
One top-producing California-based loan officer said she was excited when a top 35 mortgage lender tried to recruit her with the promise of multiple pricing buckets. Having the buckets would provide her flexibility that her current lender didn’t offer, she thought at the time.
“What the [recruiting] company told me explicitly was the loan originator, when they go to lock the loan, they check a box – is it self, branch or corp gen? And you only get to check one box, but it’s the loan officer’s choosing, not the branch,” she said. “So the loan originator is choosing, not the branch that says I’m going to give you a lead and this is the comp for it. Not the corporate advertisement or online group that says you’re getting this lead from us and here’s documentation that it occurred and now you’re going to get less comp. It’s the ultimate in legalized fraud. Because it’s not true.”
These days, many lenders have pricing buckets for corporate-generated leads, branch leads, builder leads, marketing service agreement (MSAs) leads, internet leads from aggregators and more. In and of itself, it’s legal, provided the lead really did come from the source and it’s diligently tracked by the lender.
Loan officers and mortgage executives interviewed by HousingWire said some lenders justify the practice of manipulating the buckets by telling LOs it’s legal and they’ve been audited by the CFPB, which has not found any wrongdoing. Several executives accused of the practice declined to comment on the record about pricing bucket manipulation, though they all said they track leads as required and are in full compliance with the law.
Selden, the former CFPB attorney, said that LOs are telling borrowers who complain about high mortgage rates that companies are “running a special offer.” Borrowers are directed to the company’s website, where, by indicating the LO name, they supposedly qualify for a special deal with a lower rate. In reality, at lenders without adequate controls to prevent lead source manipulation, this shifts the source from self-generated to an in-house lead.
LOs interviewed by HousingWire said that in some cases they would be able to change the lead referral source themselves, and in other cases they’d need a manager to alter the lead source in the loan origination system.
While many instances of price bucket manipulation were directed by managers, LOs would also self-select, said Mike.
“Most of the time you don’t have a loan estimate from a competitor, you’re just afraid that you’re going to lose it because you’re so embarrassed about the rate. And that’s why a lot of my comrades… were going to the corporate-generated lead bucket before they even confirmed that they had to. Partly because you wanted to lead with your best price.”
Steve vonBerg, an attorney at law firm Orrick in Washington, D.C., worked as a loan officer and underwriter for seven years. He emphasized the potential trouble for lenders and LOs inaccurately classifying the lead source.
“Often, a [CFPB] examiner would see if the lead channel changed later in the process. That could be legitimate: the borrower starts working with an LO, and it’s a self-sourced lead for that LO, but then decides to buy a home in a different state in the middle of the process; the second LO that it has to be transferred to has now an internal-company referral, and so the lead source would legitimately change,” vonBerg said. “But, if there isn’t a legitimate reason for the lead source changing midstream, that would be fairly easy for an examiner to identify.”
“It’s wrong”
Victor Ciardelli is frustrated by the bucket game. Deeply frustrated. The Guaranteed Rate founder and CEO says he is losing money and loan officers to rivals because of a business practice that he says is flagrantly illegal, pervasive, and does not appear to be slowing down anytime soon.
Some rival retail lenders, he says, are creating up to a dozen pricing buckets for their loan officers. The tiered nature of the bucket comp structure in many cases — self generated being the highest at up to 150 bps, 100 bps for another ‘bucket,’ 80 bps for another, down to 60 bps, 40 bps and sometimes all the way to zero — proves that it is a deliberate business strategy, he said.
“It wasn’t intended that the loan officer at the time that they’re talking to the consumer and quoting them a rate, that the loan officer can put the consumer in any bucket they want,” he said in an interview with HousingWire. “But that is exactly what’s happening. What’s exactly happening is the fact that there’s all these different pricing buckets for a lot of these different companies out there. And that the loan officer is allowed to go in and offer the consumer whatever rate based on what the loan officer wants.”
He argued that LOs are maximizing their personal income per borrower.
“It’s no different than what happened prior to Dodd-Frank, where it was the wild, wild West and people were playing games with customers on rates and fees,” said Ciardelli. “It’s the same thing today. There’s no difference except the fact that there’s a law in place that tells the mortgage company and the individual loan officer. And the loan officers know that they’re violating the law. It’s greed.”
Ciardelli says the rival CEOs — he declined to name individuals and said it’s an industry-wide problem — are establishing these buckets and know “full well that the bucket is put in place in order to lie about where the lead source is coming from.”
They have an obligation to know where the leads are coming from, that the loan officers are putting them in the appropriate bucket and that they are being tracked, he said.
“The loan officer may take a hit on that loan, and may make less on that loan, but the company themselves doesn’t take the hit, their margin stays the same. So the company CEO is happy, because they’re like, ‘I’m giving my loan officers all this flexibility to go out and be competitive and win deals. And they’re going to win more deals than anybody else out there, because they’re going to be able to slot the individual borrower into these different lead channels. So the individual CEO is making all the money. They’re the ones killing it.”
Ciardelli says he asked about the bucket pricing game and attorneys all told him no, it’s not legal, he said.
“I’ll play by whatever the law is…But when the rules are set up to be a certain way and people are not following the rules, then that’s a problem.”
Two other executives at large retail lenders also said they’ve lost loan officers to competitors who are sanctioning, if not directing, the manipulation of pricing buckets.
“The LOs get told this is legal, it’s just pricing flexibility so they can compete, and they have a compliance team that monitors it,” said one executive at a regional lender in the South. “Obviously that’s not true… What’s happening is they [the lenders] are pricing high and basically forcing the LOs to cut from say 150 [basis points down to 50 [basis points] on some loans because otherwise they just won’t do enough business. It’s a feature, not a bug, as they say. We asked our attorneys if we could do this and they told us absolutely not.”
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is aware of the issue. The organization asked an outside attorney from Orrick Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP to study the permissibility of the practice. In a letter sent to members in February 2023, Orrick advised MBA members that changing the lead source of a loan after beginning work on the application in order to make a competitive pricing concession “is not permissible.”
The letter has had little meaningful impact, sources told HousingWire. If anything, the practice has increased over the last year.
Fair lending concerns
Another repercussion in the market is that savvy borrowers gain access to lower rates when lead sources are manipulated. Less educated applicants could be quoted higher rates for the same loan, raising concerns about fair lending practices.
But this argument prompts a broader discussion on the efficacy of the LO comp rule, with divergent opinions on the matter.
“I used to be an MLO for seven years. I was in the industry in the 2000s until it melted down, and then I ended up going to law school because I had lost my job. I originated hundreds of loans myself, and personally, I think overall the rule is a good rule,” vonBerg said.
vonBerg elaborated: “Under the old regime, LOs were not incentivized to offer their consumers the best loan and best pricing for them. They were incentivized to give them the loans and pricing where they would make more money. Although it has some issues that should be corrected, I think the LO comp rule makes a lot of sense, in that it removes a gigantic conflict of interest.”
Not everyone shares this viewpoint.
“The LO comp rulewas designed to prevent steering to high-cost loans. And really, those things don’t exist anymore. We can’t put borrowers in homes that they can’t afford,” said Brian Levy, Of Counsel at Katten and Temple, LLP.
According to Levy, the rule creates “a tremendous amount of anxiety for the mortgage lending industry that doesn’t benefit consumers in any meaningful way.”
“The industry is frustrated. They’re unable to easily reduce prices. For example, in the past, before the rule was around, LOs were able to take less as a commission, just like any other salesperson – a car salesperson – to make the deal work. That’s illegal now for loan officers. The mortgage company can make that decision [of lowering their margins and reducing rate], but the loan officer cannot.”
Levy noted that some consider the LO comp rule to be a de facto fair lending rule.
“But we already have fair lending rules. The idea that if the loan officer is discounting their fees, they would end up discounting on a discriminatory basis would already be problematic under existing law, so you don’t need the LO comp rule to make that illegal. It’s already illegal to discriminate in pricing. That said, it’s not illegal for people to negotiate just like you can negotiate a car price.”
The CFPB has also taken issue with other forms of pricing concessions over the last year. In the summer of 2022, the agency reported that pricing exceptions, in which the lender offers a discount, had harmed protected classes, who were less likely to be offered discounts.
Where’s the CFPB?
Multiple sources said the CFPB audits about 20% of mortgage lenders per year, and because of the prevalence of this practice, would undoubtedly have come across lead bucket pricing manipulation by now.
Why there hasn’t been any enforcement to date or whether there’s a future enforcement action is just on the horizon is hard to know.
The CFPB, which is undertaking a broad review of the LO Comp rule, declined to make anyone available to speak on the issue.
“We cannot comment on any ongoing enforcement or supervision matters,” said Raul Cisneros, a Bureau spokesperson. “Those who witness potential industry misconduct should consider reporting it by going here. Additionally, we always welcome stakeholder feedback on any of our rules, including the loan officer compensation rules.”
In early 2023, the CFPB initiated a review of Regulation Z‘s mortgage loan originator rules, which include certain provisions regarding compensation. However, industry experts do not foresee substantial changes or anticipate the CFPB addressing the issue of lead source manipulation.
“In fact, there haven’t been a lot of public enforcement actions by the CFPB in several years [on the LO comp rule]. But having said that, we used to complain that the CFPB was participating in regulation by enforcement, and now they seem to be regulating by supervisory highlights,” Kris Kully, a law firm Mayer Brown partner, said.
The CFPB’s latest move regarding the LO Comp Rule was to issue a supervisory highlight in the summer stating that compensating an LO differently based on whether a loan product was originated in-house or brokered to an outside lender is prohibited.
Industry practitioners said the lack of enforcement from regulators has allowed the pricing bucket manipulation practice to flourish, creating an uneven playing field.
“You have all these companies that all of a sudden are starting to get a free pass,” Ciardelli said. “They’re like, ‘I’m not having any audits. I’m not having anybody come and say anything to me. I mean, nothing’s really happening. I’m pretty much unscathed here.’ And year after year goes by, there’s no auditors, there’s no issues. And then they start to move the needle on how they’re running their business and decisions they’re making. And they have less fear of the government, less fear of the existing rules that are in place, because the rules that were set up are not being enforced.”
Another mortgage executive speculated that the pricing bucket games will come to an end not because of CFPB enforcement, but because loan officers and executives will battle it out in court.
“I’ve got calls from loan officers who feel like they’ve been pushed into a lower commission scale than they thought they were going to get to start with,” he said. “I hired somebody from a well-known lender. When they hired her, they told her, ‘Hey, these are what the rates are and this is what the commission is.’ When she got over there, the rates they were quoting were the lead-based rates, not the hundred-based points they were promising her… I don’t think the enforcement will come from the CFPB. I think it’ll come from some type of lawsuit like that.”
The lasting impact of LOs cutting their comp to win clients and close deals won’t be clear until mortgage rates meaningfully fall for a sustained period.
But many fear that the genie can’t be put back in the bottle.
“We’ve done this so much that they’ve built it into their pricing,” said Mike, the loan officer in North Carolina. “They are pricing things higher, assuming that we’re going to cut our pay, and protect their margins. So to me that’s the bigger issue for us selfishly, is we start doing that, and it’s going to become the norm. The pricing system and everything is going to assume that we’ll do that.”
He mused that RESPA guidelines prohibit an LO from buying a Realtor partner a Big Mac after a closing but lying about a lead source is not policed.
“Personally being an LO, the biggest issue to me is, they’re screwing with us and just… That’s how all these shops are finding a lifeline to keep their doors open. ‘We don’t have to pay them 100 bps, we can just pay them 50, and they’ll take it on the chin.’ And it’s like, yeah, we’ll take it on the chin. Many of us are using the heck out of our credit cards right now to survive. It’s not cool.”
Building a budget isn’t hard, but it does require time and effort. And once it’s completed, it’s something you should be proud of. Yet, many people have trouble sticking to a budget, essentially throwing all their work out the window as a result of impulse buys, unrealistic expectations, or a lack of discipline. Here’s a look at some of the reasons budgets can fail and tips for making a budget you can stick to.
Understanding the Importance of Budgeting
A budget allows you to organize your money according to your priorities and plays a key role in achieving financial goals. Those goals can be anything from taking a vacation and buying a new car to funding future education and retirement. With a well-crafted budget, you can work on multiple goals at the same time.
A budget is also one of the top tools to help you stay out of debt or rein in any outstanding debt you may already have. In addition, having a budget can help simplify your spending decisions, making it easier to determine which purchases are worth making and which you don’t actually need.
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Overcoming Common Budgeting Challenges
Budgeting usually begins with the best of intentions. However, it’s all too easy to get sidetracked. Temptations and unexpected expenses can cause a budget to go off the rails, leading to overspending, missed bill payments, and debt. Here’s a look at some of the most common reasons why budgets fail.
Lack of Discipline
Though people often get excited about putting their financial house in order, it can be easy to slip back into the lifestyle they led before putting a budget in place. If you already live within your means, that might be okay. But if you’re a habitual overspender, it’s important to recognize that those behaviors have to change to keep your budget on track.
Unrealistic Expectations
Many people think budgeting requires drastic measures. For example, if you’ve been living beyond your means and want to rein in your spending, you may decide you must go from spending more than you make to living off half your income. But that may not be a viable option, at least at first. When you fail, you might give up on budgeting altogether. It’s important to set achievable expectations.
Discounting Irregular Expenses
While building your budget, you probably remember to factor in regular expenses like your monthly electricity bill and grocery shopping. But it can be easy to forget to include expenses that occur on a more infrequent schedule, such as quarterly or annually.
Annual membership fees, homeowners’ association fees, and kids’ camp tuition may come up only once a year, and that can make them easy to forget. Failing to account for these costs can throw your budget off once they come due and you may have to scramble to find the cash to pay them. You can try to account for these expenses by saving a little each month to help cover them.
Recommended: Determining the Right Spending/Budgeting Categories
Getting Lost in the Weeds
While it’s important to take a thorough accounting of your expenses when making a budget, it is possible to go overboard with so many line items that can make your head spin.
A budget with too many line items can be tedious to update and track. It can be more productive to have broad line items that encompass a wider array of expenses, so if you spend a bit too much on one small item, it won’t make much difference.
Your Social Circle
The people you surround yourself with, including your friends, family, and partner, can have a huge impact on your spending. If these people tend to be big spenders, you might be tempted to spend when you’re around them. It would be a shame if one big night on the town threw off a whole month’s worth of budgeting plans.
If you’re saving for a specific goal, like putting a down payment on a home, you might let your friends know that you’re trying to stick to a budget, so maybe they won’t tempt you with expensive sushi dinners or weekends in Vegas. In their excitement to help you achieve your goal, they may be willing to trade nights at the bar for cheaper activities like game nights in.
Creating a Realistic Budget
One of the most important tips for how to stick to a budget is to start with a realistic budget — or, in other words, a budget that is easy to stick with. These three steps are key to starting off on the right foot.
Assessing Income and Expenses
To create a realistic budget, you need to first assess where you currently stand. That means calculating how much, on average, is coming in each month and how much, on average, is going out each month.
You can do this by gathering bank statements from the past several months, then adding up all of your (after tax) monthly income. This is how much you have to spend each month. Next, add up what you are spending each month to come up with a monthly average. If your average monthly spending exceeds your average monthly income (meaning you’re going backwards) or is about the same (meaning you’re not saving), you’ll need to find places to cut back.
Setting SMART financial goals
Whether your goal is to build an emergency fund or go on a great vacation, setting clear, achievable financial goals will help you create — and stick to — your budget. Strong goals serve as reminders for why you’re choosing to spend less in some areas, which can make sticking to your budget feel more rewarding.
Consider using the SMART framework when setting goals. You’ll want your goals to be:
Specific: Rather than saying, “I’d like to save more,” try to be more specific, such as “I’d like to put a downpayment on a car in four months.” Measurable: You want your goals to have a measurable outcome, such as a set amount of money you’d like to save by a certain date. Attainable: If a goal is too hard to achieve, you might give up before you get very far. Strive to set goals that are attainable given your current income, expenses, and time frame. Relevant: It’s key that your goals address your top needs and concerns. Consider what will give you the most security and value to your life right now. Time-based: Having a set timeline to reach your goals can help you stay on track.
Recommended: Smart Financial Strategies to Reach Your Goals
Prioritizing Essential and Non-Essential Expenses
A budget is an opportunity to align your spending with what’s most important to you. You’ll want to have three main categories for spending:
• Essential expenses (“needs”) These are your necessities, such as groceries, housing, healthcare, and transportation.
• Nonessentials (“wants”) These are the expenses that aren’t necessary for survival but enhance your quality of life.
• Savings This is the money you separate from spending each month and allows you to reach the financial goals you established earlier.
A very basic approach to budgeting is the 50-30-20 rule, which divides your net income into the above categories, spending 50% on needs, 30% on wants, and 20% on savings. Those percentages may not be realistic for everyone, however, If you live in an area with steep housing costs, for example, you may need to spend more than 50% on needs and take some away from the “wants” and/or “savings” categories.
Practical Tips to Stick to Your Budget
Once you have a basic budget in place, you’ll need to stick to it — or you won’t see any progress towards your goals. Here are six ways to keep spending and saving on track.
1. Sleep on Big Purchases
Impulse buys can quickly throw your budget off course. To avoid the problem, try the 30-day rule: If you see something nonessential you want to buy either online or in person, put the purchase on a one-month pause. Tell yourself that if, after 30 days, you still want the item, and you can afford it, you’ll buy it. This gives you time to reflect. You may well decide that you don’t need or want the item that badly and forgo the purchase.
2. Aim to Never Spend More Than You Have
Getting into debt can be a vicious cycle that is tough to get out of. Just paying the minimum on your credit card balance, for example, means you’re never getting ahead of your debt. Running a balance also means you’re going to end up paying far more for your purchases than the original price tag.
If you want something you can’t afford right now, plan for it, and start setting money aside for it each month. When you have enough, you can splurge without guilt — or throwing off your budget.
3. Set up Auto Draft for Bills and Savings
To make sure you never miss a payment (and avoid late fees), consider setting up autopay for all of your regular bills. You can apply the same principle for paying yourself (a.k.a saving). Simply set up a recurring transfer from your checking account to your savings account for the same day each month (ideally, right after you get paid). Even small amounts will grow into something larger, which can ultimately buy that vacation or cover an unexpected car repair.
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4. Plan Your Meals to Curb Impulsive Spending
When you’re hungry and there’s no food in the house, it’s hard to resist the call of the drive-through or your fave local take-out spot. You can avoid this temptation by planning your meals (including breakfast, lunch, dinner, and snacks) each week, making a grocery list, and sticking to that list in the store. Meal planning saves you from blowing your weekly food and restaurant budget. Bonus: You’ll probably eat healthier, too.
5. Utilize Technology for Tracking and Managing Your Budget
One of the best ways to stick to a budget is to harness technology. Putting a budgeting app on your phone, for example, can help you keep track of your spending and savings. These apps connect with your financial accounts (including bank accounts, credit cards, and investment accounts), so you don’t have to manually enter your purchases and transactions.
Apps can help you monitor bank accounts, credit card spending, and even keeping track of how much you spend in cash. Some apps allow you to split your spending into your own categories and can send you alerts when you start to max out your budget to help keep you from going over. Even better, many budgeting apps are free (at least for the basic service).
6. Revisit and Adjust Your Budget as Needed
A successful budget is rarely a one-and-done proposition. As your income, expenses, and/or financial goals change, it’s a good idea to revisit your budget and make adjustments.
You may want to check in on your budget every six to 12 months to reflect on your budgeting journey. How well is your budget working to advance your goals? Is it still relevant to your life? Maybe you’re spending more in certain categories and less in others. Perhaps you can siphon off a bit more to savings each month and reach your goals faster. Picking up changes in your financial habits can help ensure that your budget reflects your current priorities.
The Takeaway
Learning how to stick to a budget means starting with a realistic budgeting plan, setting SMART goals, picking the right tools, and keeping a watchful eye on your money as your income and expenses change. Remaining agile and staying disciplined with your budget will allow you to meet your expenses, enjoy extras like travel and entertainment, and achieve your future goals.
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SoFi members with direct deposit activity can earn 4.60% annual percentage yield (APY) on savings balances (including Vaults) and 0.50% APY on checking balances. Direct Deposit means a deposit to an account holder’s SoFi Checking or Savings account, including payroll, pension, or government payments (e.g., Social Security), made by the account holder’s employer, payroll or benefits provider or government agency (“Direct Deposit”) via the Automated Clearing House (“ACH”) Network during a 30-day Evaluation Period (as defined below). Deposits that are not from an employer or government agency, including but not limited to check deposits, peer-to-peer transfers (e.g., transfers from PayPal, Venmo, etc.), merchant transactions (e.g., transactions from PayPal, Stripe, Square, etc.), and bank ACH funds transfers and wire transfers from external accounts, do not constitute Direct Deposit activity. There is no minimum Direct Deposit amount required to qualify for the stated interest rate.
SoFi members with Qualifying Deposits can earn 4.60% APY on savings balances (including Vaults) and 0.50% APY on checking balances. Qualifying Deposits means one or more deposits that, in the aggregate, are equal to or greater than $5,000 to an account holder’s SoFi Checking and Savings account (“Qualifying Deposits”) during a 30-day Evaluation Period (as defined below). Qualifying Deposits only include those deposits from the following eligible sources: (i) ACH transfers, (ii) inbound wire transfers, (iii) peer-to-peer transfers (i.e., external transfers from PayPal, Venmo, etc. and internal peer-to-peer transfers from a SoFi account belonging to another account holder), (iv) check deposits, (v) instant funding to your SoFi Bank Debit Card, (vi) push payments to your SoFi Bank Debit Card, and (vii) cash deposits. Qualifying Deposits do not include: (i) transfers between an account holder’s Checking account, Savings account, and/or Vaults; (ii) interest payments; (iii) bonuses issued by SoFi Bank or its affiliates; or (iv) credits, reversals, and refunds from SoFi Bank, N.A. (“SoFi Bank”) or from a merchant.
SoFi Bank shall, in its sole discretion, assess each account holder’s Direct Deposit activity and Qualifying Deposits throughout each 30-Day Evaluation Period to determine the applicability of rates and may request additional documentation for verification of eligibility. The 30-Day Evaluation Period refers to the “Start Date” and “End Date” set forth on the APY Details page of your account, which comprises a period of 30 calendar days (the “30-Day Evaluation Period”). You can access the APY Details page at any time by logging into your SoFi account on the SoFi mobile app or SoFi website and selecting either (i) Banking > Savings > Current APY or (ii) Banking > Checking > Current APY. Upon receiving a Direct Deposit or $5,000 in Qualifying Deposits to your account, you will begin earning 4.60% APY on savings balances (including Vaults) and 0.50% on checking balances on or before the following calendar day. You will continue to earn these APYs for (i) the remainder of the current 30-Day Evaluation Period and through the end of the subsequent 30-Day Evaluation Period and (ii) any following 30-day Evaluation Periods during which SoFi Bank determines you to have Direct Deposit activity or $5,000 in Qualifying Deposits without interruption.
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Screening tenants, especially their financial situation, is the most critical part of operating a rental property. To make sure tenants can pay their rent on time each month, you should run an employment and credit check. Then, you might have to decide whether you’re open to renting to tenants with bad credit.
As a rental property owner, you expect tenants to pay their rent on time each month. Even if a tenant doesn’t have a stellar credit score, that doesn’t necessarily mean you shouldn’t rent to them, particularly if other aspects of their application are a good fit. Here are a few things to remember when renting to tenants with bad credit.
Do I have to rent to someone with bad credit?
It’s up to property owners to pick their tenants. So, you may want to require tenants have a minimum credit score. In many ways, a good credit score signals that an individual is creditworthy and financially responsible, which likely means they can afford to pay rent. However, you might not want to completely avoid renting to a tenant with bad credit.
People have bad credit for many reasons. It doesn’t always mean they haven’t paid their bills in the past or that they’re irresponsible with money. If the renter applicant otherwise looks perfectly suited for your home, you can require a higher deposit or a co-signer to compensate for the poor credit score.
Do most landlords do credit checks?
As part of the tenant screening process, it’s essential to run a credit check. The reports offer a glimpse into the individual’s financial history, including their bill-paying past and whether there are any financial judgments against them.
If someone has a good credit history, they’ll likely consistently pay their rent on time. If someone has a history of late or missed payments, this behavior may continue. In these cases, property owners should dig a little deeper before renting to tenants with bad credit.
What is the lowest credit score to rent a house?
Credit scores range from 300 to 850, according to the credit bureau Experian. Here’s what’s considered a good and bad credit score:
Exceptional: 800-850
Very good: 740-799
Good: 670-739
Fair: 580-669
Poor: 300-579
It’s up to you to decide the minimum credit score that’s acceptable to you. But many landlords set 600 as the lowest score to rent a house.
Things to remember when renting to tenants with bad credit
Even if an applicant has a negative credit score, that doesn’t always mean you shouldn’t rent to them. Here are some things to remember when renting to tenants with bad credit:
1. Understand the reason for the bad credit score
Credit scores come from various factors, including payment history, account balances, length of credit, types of credit accounts and recent activity on these accounts. But, many different things affect these elements.
For example, if someone is a recent graduate or just moving out on their own, they likely haven’t built up a solid credit history, which could show up on their credit report as a low score. Financial changes from getting a divorce, incurring large medical bills or being a victim of identity theft can also ding someone’s credit.
Communicating with the applicant about why their credit score is low is crucial. It will help you understand their situation and build a trusting relationship. The more information you have, the more informed decision you can make.
2. Get proof of income
The screening process should include verifying the applicant’s income. If someone has a steady job with a decent salary, it could overshadow their poor credit score and set your mind at ease about their ability to pay rent.
Ask for pay stubs and contact information for their employer to find out how long the person has worked there and to verify their salary. Make sure their income is at least three times the monthly rent to ensure they can afford it.
3. Check rental history
An applicant’s behavior with previous landlords are a telling sign of how they’ll be with you. If the individual is renting somewhere else, ask for rent receipts showing that they’ve paid on time each month.
Contact previous landlords, as well, to learn more about their rental history. Find out what type of tenant they were, whether they followed the lease, paid rent on time and if they got evicted. If past landlords don’t have good things to say, it’s a good idea to move on to another renter.
4. Charge a higher deposit
Banks often charge people with lower credit scores a higher interest rate to protect themselves against the risk. So, you might want to consider doing something similar.
Increasing the deposit amount could lower your risk of tenants defaulting on their rent payments. If your typical deposit is one month’s rent and a security deposit, increase it to two months’ rent and a security deposit. Make sure whatever you charge aligns with local landlord-tenant laws, which may set caps on security deposits or other fees.
5. Require a co-signer or guarantor
Another option for renting to tenants with bad credit is to ask them to have someone with good credit to co-sign or act as a guarantor on their lease. If you’re not sure of the difference between a co-signer and guarantor, here’s an overview:
A guarantor is usually a family member or friend who agrees to take on the responsibility of paying rent or covering property damage if the tenant can’t. Guarantors sign the lease but usually don’t live in the home.
A co-signer is often a roommate and signs the lease with the right to occupy the home. The co-signer agrees to share the responsibility for the rent, fees and damage. They may contribute to the monthly rent and are responsible for paying when the tenant can’t.
If you allow a co-signer or guarantor, you’ll need to check that person’s credit history and proof of income, as well.
6. Use a shorter lease
The term for most rental lease agreements is one year. Offering a shorter lease term, such as three or six months, is an option for renting to tenants with bad credit. A shorter lease gives the tenant the opportunity to prove they can pay rent on time and protects you in case they can’t by ending the tenancy within a short timeframe.
If everything works out after the shortened lease ends, you can ask the renter to sign a year-long lease.
Renting to tenants with bad credit
Renting to tenants with bad credit is risky. You’re not sure of their financial situation and whether they’ll pay rent. But automatically discounting these tenants because of their poor credit might be a mistake.
If the individual meets all your other requirements and seems like a good fit, consider charging a higher deposit or relying more on proof of income. The tenant will appreciate your willingness to work with them since renting a home with bad credit is challenging.
Home loan borrowers, who were hoping to get some reprieve from high interest rate, are in for another disappointment. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has yet again decided to hold the repo rate, which has diminished the hope for any meaningful reduction in home loan interest rate in the near future. How long will the borrowers have to wait to see a fall in interest rate? What is the best way to manage a home loan in the current high interest rate regimen?
Home loan borrowers, especially the ones who took a home loan before May 2022, are going through one of the most difficult times. This is because the RBI raised the repo rate by 2.5% from May 2022 to February 2023. All floating rate home loans are now linked to an external benchmark and the repo rate is the benchmark for most such home loans. So, if the repo rate goes up, the interest rate of these home loans also go up by a similar quantum.
A 2.5% hike pushes EMIs up by 20% and total interest up by 44% Due to the steep rise in repo rate, these borrowers have seen an unprecedented increase in their home loan tenure or a steep hike in their home loan EMIs. For instance, on a Rs 50-lakh home loan taken for a tenure of 20 years, if you have to pay a higher interest rate of 9.5% instead of 7%, then your EMI goes up by 20% from Rs 23,259 to Rs 27,964. The impact on total interest payment during the tenure of the loan is overwhelmingly high as it goes up by 43.73% from Rs 25.82 lakh to Rs 37.11 lakh.
This kind of an adverse impact can jolt any borrower. The best remedy they can get against this hike is to see a similar rate reduction soon, but that is highly unlikely to happen. However, even a smaller reduction in interest rate can bring great relief. So what are the chances that the interest rate on these home loans will fall in the near future?
Will the interest rates fall any time soon?
The biggest relief home loan borrowers want is to see a significant fall in the interest rates so that their EMI burden comes down. So let us understand the likelihood of the interest rates coming down in the near future.Elevated inflation may not allow rates to fall soon The RBI has the primary responsibility to keep retail inflation in the range of 2-6%. If inflation remains above this range for a considerable period, the RBI is often compelled to go for a repo rate hike. So the direction of inflation is the most prominent factor that will determine the movement of the interest rate. Crude oil prices are one of the biggest drivers of inflation worldwide. From below $75 per barrel in June this year, Brent crude oil prices have gone up to over $90 per barrel. Therefore, a spike in inflation cannot be entirely ruled out. If inflation rises sharply, the central bank may have to go for a repo rate hike.
Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank, says the US dollar and bond yields have been on an uptrend. “Narrowing interest rate differentials to record low levels poses severe financial instability, thereby warranting a cautious approach by the RBI,” she says. Any action to reduce the rate will further reduce this differential and may put more pressure on the USD exchange rate, which the RBI would like to avoid.
However, the possibility of higher interest rates on short-term FDs cannot be ruled out. “We expect the RBI to prefer keeping the short-term rates elevated in the near term by using liquidity tools, given the pressure on INR and the underlying inflationary risks,” says Bhardwaj.
“We see cautious optimism in the governor’s speech. It suggests that things are difficult right now. But interest rates and inflation are on the right trajectory with limited upside risks, and the central bank will continue to manage growth expectations using all the tools of monetary policy,” says Adhil Shetty, CEO, Bankbazaar.com.
Another prominent indicator of the direction of the interest rates is the yield of the 10-year G-sec. Yield of the 10-year government bond, which had fallen below 7% in May, has risen above 7.2%. It indicates a rising trend in interest rate.
Another prominent factor that decides the interest rate’s direction is liquidity in the banking system. A tight liquidity situation pushes up the interest rates, especially on FDs with short tenures. “Liquidity conditions have tightened and borrowing costs have remained elevated since the last policy,” says a report published by CareEdge, a credit rating company. What it reaffirms is that the possibility of any reduction in interest rates is highly unlikely.
What should borrowers do? If you are a home loan borrower, there is hardly anything you can do about the interest rate movement, but you can at least ensure that you are getting the best possible deal on your home loan. If you are planning to buy a house and take a home loan then it will be a matter of relief that you would not need to pay higher interest rate.
“This steady repo rate is anticipated to foster stability in home loan lending rates, which is encouraging ahead of the festive season, where we expect the demand for homes to remain strong, especially in the luxury segment,” says Ashwin Chadha, CEO, India Sotheby’s International Realty.
As interest rates have peaked, most of the existing borrowers will be paying the highest interest rates seen in the last three years on their EMIs. If you are an old borrower, servicing a loan under previous regimes like the MCLR or base rate, then it may be a good time to shift to the new EBLR regime. This is because when there is a fall in interest rates, you will quickly benefit from it.
Compare your interest rate with those of other lenders. If you find that they are offering a much lower interest rate to a new borrower, you should consider transferring your loan after calculating the net benefit. However, if your lender is giving a much lower rate to new borrowers, then you may request your lender to reprice your loan at a lower rate. Lenders usually charge a repricing fee to restructure your loan at the new rate.
Regular partial prepayment is one of the best ways to pay off your home loan quickly. However, this option works only when you have adequate surplus to make the prepayments. If you have more money in hand after getting a salary raise, then you may consider increasing your EMI so that your total interest outgo can be brought down. If you get a bonus, incentive or any other form of windfall gain, consider going for partial prepayment so that your home loan outstanding comes down; this will help you reduce the tenure and total interest outgo on the loan.
As interest rates have reached very close to their peak home loan borrowers can expect things to get better from here as the chances of interest rate reduction appears to be higher. “Bond markets have already been discounting rate cuts, and 10-year G-Sec yields are down by 30 bps from this year’s peak levels. Home loan borrowers would do well to stick to their floating interest rate loans for now, even if fixed-rate loans are available at some discount,” says Anshul Gupta, Co-Founder and Chief Investment Office, Wint Wealth
Are you discounting your services in order to get deals done? Listen to today’s podcast and learn why you should always charge what you’re worth. Real estate veteran Steve Shull, coauthor of The Full Fee Agent, outlines proven techniques for getting your full fee on every transaction. Steve also shares his no-nonsense approach to prospecting, the one thing it takes to succeed in real estate, and the best tool for any type of negotiation: tactical empathy.
Listen to today’s show and learn:
Steve Shull on playing for the Miami Dolphins in Superbowl XVII [2:28]
Steve’s introduction to real estate and Mike Ferry [4:22]
Steve’s first couple years in real estate [5:11]
Real estate sales in simple terms [7:23]
Mike Ferry’s four options for drumming up real estate business [8:00]
A no-nonsense approach to prospecting [8:32]
Building a custom real estate CRM back in 1991 [9:39]
How sports can help you succeed in real estate [13:46]
The name of the real estate game: listings [16:39]
The mistake most real estate agents make [17:30]
Real estate is not rocket science; it’s a battle for consistency [19:36]
Chris Voss’ Never Split the Difference [23:26]
How Chris Voss’ book completely changed Steve’s real estate scripts [27:27]
The Full Fee Agent by Chris Voss and Steve Shull [27:32]
What it means to be a full-fee agent [28:08]
The false premise that the entire real estate industry is built on [34:08]
The root of all evil in real estate [42:50]
How to respond to a client who asks you to cut your commission [45:49]
Transactional versus relational paradigms [47:14]
Tactical empathy [48:43]
A story detailing the power of tactical empathy [51:50]
What you’ll learn by reading The Full Fee Agent [55:44]
Steve Shull
Steve Shull grew up outside of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. He attended The College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, Virginia. He graduated with a BS Degree in 1980. Steve then played four years in the NFL as a linebacker with the Miami Dolphins. He was one of the tri-captains in the 1982 Super Bowl. A knee injury ended his career in 1983. Steve then went to graduate school at The University of Miami and received my MBA. He worked on Wall Street as an institutional fixed income sales person for five years. From 1991 thru 1993 Steve sold residential real estate in the Fullerton, CA. area. In his first year with his partner, they closed 53 transactions. In his second year, they were on pace to sell 100 homes when Steve came up with the idea to create a coaching program which marked the beginning of his real estate coaching career in 1993. In 2007, Steve was one of founding partners of Teles Properties. He helped the company open four offices in Beverly Hills, Brentwood, Newport Beach and Pasadena before leaving in 2012. Steve is married to his wife Katerina and they have two daughters and they live in Brentwood, CA.
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“The economic slowdown has resumed – whether the end result is a modest recession or simply a soft landing remains unanswered – although we continue to expect the former, as we have since April of last year, when we first made our 2023 recession call,” Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, said.
“The greater-than-expected resilience of the housing sector to the affordability pressures of higher home prices and mortgage rates is central to our expectation that the recession will be modest,” he added.
However, the ongoing lack of existing homes for sale will continue to support demand for new homes, the group noted.
New home construction is expected to pull back later in 2023 – consistent with Fannie Mae’s forecasted recession – which is due, at least in part, to tighter credit availability for construction lending. Still, Fannie Mae expects new home sales to hold up comparatively well relative to existing homes.
“Homebuilders continue to show a willingness to offer rate buy-downs and other incentives to move their inventories. The past year’s pullback in the price of lumber and other materials also helps builders to maintain margins even with discounting, and we would expect them to continue to do so,” Fannie Mae’s ESR group said.
No additional bank failures have occurred since mid-March, and high frequency data from the Federal Reserve show that aggregate banking deposits have stabilized in the most recent weeks. This includes deposits at small banks, which were roughly flat — and even rose somewhat over the past two weeks.
Still, the prior bank failures and ongoing fallout took place during a period in which credit conditions were already tightening, so any additional marginal tightening may end up contributing to an eventual expected recession, the group explained.
Fannie Mae noted the continued pullback in longer-term interest rates relative to pre-banking turmoil, combined with a lack of accelerating inflation expectations, suggests that financial markets still anticipate that the recent banking crisis will be a drag — at least modestly — on economic activity.
With upgrades to both home sales and home price forecasts, Fannie Mae adjusted its forecast for mortgage origination upward. Total originations for 2023 are now expected to post $1.66 trillion, up compared to its previous forecast of $1.55 trillion. For 2024, Fannie Mae anticipates volumes of $2.02 trillion, an increase from its prior forecast of $1.89 trillion.
House prices, measured by Fannie Mae’s home price index, are projected to decline by 1.2% in 2023 on a Q4/Q4 basis from a previously expected 4.2% decline. In 2024, home prices will decline by a further drop of 2.2% compared to previous expectations.
Shopping at a farmers’ market is a great way to eat healthier and support local agriculture, but if you’ve ever been to one, you know that the food isn’t cheap.
When you’re used to fairly inexpensive tomatoes from the supermarket, the price of locally-grown, heirloom tomatoes can be a bit of a shock, leading some consumers to wonder what makes the market tomatoes so much pricier.
J.D.’s note: Three years ago, I did a survey of my local area to find out where to buy the cheapest produce. Farmers’ markets and grocery stores were roughly equivalent here in Portland, Oregon. The real cheap stuff was to be found at roadside produce stands.
The thing is, the farmers’ market prices are the true cost of food. In Getting Real About the High Price of Cheap Food, author Bryan Walsh writes:
The U.S. agricultural industry can now produce unlimited quantities of meat and grains at remarkably cheap prices. But it does so at a high cost to the environment, animals, and humans…our food is increasingly bad for us, even dangerous. A series of recalls involving contaminated foods [in 2009] — including an outbreak of salmonella from tainted peanuts that killed at least eight people and sickened 600 — has consumers rightly worried about the safety of their meals. A food system — from seed to 7‑Eleven — that generates cheap, filling food at the literal expense of healthier produce is also a principal cause of America’s obesity epidemic.
Cheap food is often unhealthy food, but most of us have a bottom line, a household budget of some sort that we have to keep in mind. There are ways to make farmers’ market food work within your budget, though. Use the following tips to make the most of your market purchases.
Go Early for the Best Selection, Arrive Late for the Best Deals
Farmers don’t want to pack up leftover goods and drive them back to the farm, especially perishables like fruit and produce. You’re likely to find farmers discounting their goods if you arrive closer to closing. Because farmers work long, labor-intensive hours, my preference is to not haggle, but many vendors don’t mind at all.
Stop by the Information Booth First
If it’s your first time at a market, go to the information booth. The volunteers will alert you to deals, coupons, and other specials. Some markets have frequent buyer programs that give discounts to regulars. My city has a “Go Local” card that can be purchased for $10 and offers discounts at the market and at most local businesses around town.
The information booth is a good place to ask about a tasting booth, as well. Usually vendors are not permitted to offer samples at their booth, but can provide samples at a designated sampling table. Finally, the information booth at some markets functions as an ATM if you don’t have cash and some even accept food stamp cards.
Make Friends with the Farmers
If you want to get the inside track at the market, befriend the vendors. Take a few minutes to say hello and chat about the produce. Also, make their lives easier by keeping in mind the following:
Bring reusable bags to carry your groceries. This keeps expenses down for the farmers.
Pay in cash, preferably with small bills for less expensive items. Farmers run out of one-dollar bills quickly, and they’re always happy when they get exact change.
One time a vendor lowered my bill just because he was happy to receive so many one-dollar bills!
Prioritize Your Purchases
If you can’t afford to buy all of your groceries at the market, decide how much you can spend and stick to that. It doesn’t have to be all or nothing. Start with fruits and vegetables, which are inexpensive in comparison to specialty items like bread, seasoned meat, jam, honey, and olive oil.
Properly Pack Your Groceries as You Shop
Local isn’t cheap, so make sure your groceries make it home. As you shop, pack your bags carefully, taking obvious precautions, such as packing the heavier items at the bottom of the bag. Plan ahead if you’re going to buy anything that comes in a glass bottle or jar, such as olive oil, vinegar, and jam, to prevent breakage. Finally, if you need to run other errands after going to the market, bring a cooler and ice to keep items frozen and/or refrigerated.
Don’t Let Food Go to Waste
It’s easier said than done, but a good way to make your market dollars stretch is to actually eat what you’ve bought. I still struggle with this sometimes, but a few pointers that reduce the amount of food lost to spoilage include the following:
Keep in mind how much your family will actually eat in a given week. There’s no need to dip into your savings account unnecessarily, so try not to overbuy.
Plan ahead. On the weekend, wash and cut lettuce to make it easier to take a salad to lunch. Slice up carrots and other veggies. Make it convenient to eat what you’ve bought.
Foods like meat, cheeses, and certain breads can be frozen if you know you won’t eat them anytime soon.
Shop cooperatively. Go in on food with friends, neighbors, or family members. For example, I love buying a loaf of pecan raisin bread each week, but sometimes my husband and I don’t finish the whole thing. Rather than let it go bad, we split a loaf with my parents.
Use as much as you can of what you buy. Buying chicken?
Finally, know what to do with persimmons. Okay, not persimmons specifically, but make sure you know what you can do with the food that you buy, or it’s likely to sit in the pantry until it has to be thrown out. Buy cookbooks ordered by seasons. Two of my favorites are Local Flavors: Cooking and Eating from America’s Farmers’ Markets and Jamie at Home: Cook Your Way to the Good Life, but there are a lot of good ones out there.
J.D.’s note: This is a great place for me to plug Simply in Season, a cookbook written by one of my high-school friends. I’m proud of what Cathy has done with this book, and I keep meaning to interview her for GRS but haven’t gotten around to it.
Another great resource is Epicurious: Just type in the ingredient (like persimmons) and pick a recipe that appeals to you. The best resource of all, however, is the farmers themselves. Some have recipe cards at their booth, but even if they don’t, ask them for advice, and you’re sure to get an earful.
The poultry vendor at my market was a chef in the south of France. You can bet I get great advice from him, and I’m not about to let food spoil after he’s given me so many mouth-watering ideas. Just be willing to come back the next week to share how it went with them!
What about you? Do you shop at a farmers’ market? Do you have any tips to save money and stretch your dollars at the market? Also see How to Eat Healthy While Keeping it Cheap for additional tips on how to eat healthy on a budget.