Is the US in a recession now? The specter of recession is yet another worry, posing as a potential threat to recovery. “The range of projections of whether and when we will enter an economic recession is extraordinary,” Rubin noted. “Culling through the noise, the consensus seems to suggest a recession later this year that … [Read more…]
Typically, good economic data is bad for mortgage rates, especially in this environment. But added supply is a positive.
The U.S. housing market just took another hit Fortune
Here in Las Vegas (Why did the Dalai Lama go to Las Vegas? Because he loves Tibet) the population is about 650,000 with all manners of housing, subdivisions, and lifestyles. But around the nation and world, there are numerous ways and places to live. Hereâs a story about a former NFL star who says he saved money by living inside Cincinnati Bengals stadium. What do Stowe, Vermont, Whitefish, Montana, and Lake Placid, New York have in common? The three U.S. towns made Travel & Leisureâs 25 Most Beautiful Small Towns. If you only want a house for part of the year, with elevated mortgage rates and home prices having risen considerably, the solution might be buying 1/6 of a house. Or sharing equity, which is what some of your borrowers and homeowner clients consider. âAn Unlock HEA gives you cash in exchange for a portion of your homeâs future value.â Or one can live underwater. (Todayâs podcast can be found here and this weekâs is sponsored by Built Technologies. Construction and real estate solutions for better financial management. Improve business performance with faster, smarter tools, for all stages of the property lifecycle. Todayâs has an interview with Sasha Ramani, CEO of MPOWER Financing on companies beginning to ditch credit scores when loaning money. Broker and Lender Products and Services The Konami Code is one of the most well-known cheat codes in video game history. Unfortunately, lenders canât just press a sequence of buttons to make productivity struggles disappear. But that doesnât mean there isnât a solution thatâs nearly as simple and effective! SimpleNexus, an nCino company, is helping lenders hack the mortgage experience with its single-sign-on mobile homebuying application that connects lenders, real estate agents, and homebuyers from pre-application to close. If youâre attending ICE Experience 2023 this week, SimpleNexus invites you to âLevel Upâ at booth #125. Come for the free t-shirts and stay for the retro video games and illuminating discussions about the latest advancements in digital home lending. Want to put your name on the mortgage industryâs leaderboard? Earn a top score with SimpleNexus.
Remember, not all math puns are terrible…just sum. Analyzing residential servicing is a combination of math and psychology. If you were an institution thinking of buying mortgage servicing rights (MSR), or a lender running the numbers on retaining servicing rather than selling it to an aggregator like AmeriHome or Penny Mac, you donât like hearing the saying, âMarry the house, date the rate.â Youâd prefer that the loan stay âon your booksâ well into the future because you want the monthly cash flow. In 2020 and 2021 origination income was dominant. But in 2022 servicing income won the day for those who owned it. What will happen to servicing in 2023? No one has a crystal ball, but if rates stay in the 5âs or 6âs, loans funded in 2020 and 2021 still stick. Prepayments have plummeted: no one wants to pay off their 2.875 percent loan. Of course, there are numerous parties slicing and dicing the numbers. For example, Black Knightâs MSR Index takes a sample current note rate production portfolio and tracks the MSR performance throughout the month by comparing the current value to the first day of the month value. (Todayâs podcast can be found here and this weekâs is sponsored by Agile, bringing the mortgage capital markets into a new digital era. From lenders to dealers, Agile is the new way to quote MBS. Listen to an interview with entrepreneur and author Alexandra Nolan on launching and growing a successful business.) Lender and Broker Services and Products
The mortgage industry started 2023 with an uptick in housing activity but fundamentals point to weakness ahead of an expected recession in Q2.