Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
A strong U.S. economy will be a boon for the housing market, Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) chief economist said on Thursday, as it will buoy demand and as inflation continues to fall, mortgage rates will decline as well making home loans more affordable for buyers.
The U.S. economy accelerated at a faster-than-expected clip in the fourth quarter of 2023 at 3.3 percent, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred measurement of inflation’s progress—jumped by 1.7 percent during the quarter. Core PCE, which excludes the often volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2 percent.
These dynamics bode well for the housing market that has been struggling under the weight of record-high mortgage rates, sparked in part by the Fed’s hiking of rate at the most aggressive clip since the 1980s to fight soaring inflation.
The Fed’s funds rate currently sits at 5.25 to 5.5 percent—the highest they have been in two decades—and policymakers have signaled that they will slash rates should inflation come down to their 2 percent target.
But an economy that may avoid a recession as inflation moderates without the Fed’s tight monetary policy doing too much damage to the jobs market would help the housing sector.
“Stronger economic growth will benefit the housing market, keeping demand robust,” Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist, said in a statement shared with Newsweek. “Moreover, today’s report also showed further reductions in inflation, which will enable the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year—as they have been hinting.”
Mortgage rates ticked up slightly for the week ending January 25, Freddie Mac said on Thursday, with the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.69 percent.
“The 30-year fixed-rate has remained within a very narrow range over the last month, settling in at 6.69% this week,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement.
Rates look to have stabilized, Khater suggested, encouraging buyers to jump off the fence.
“Despite persistent inventory challenges, we anticipate a busier spring homebuying season than 2023, with home prices continuing to increase at a steady pace,” he said.
A slowdown in rates could have a negative impact on home buyers, some analysts say.
A decline in the cost of home loans would encourage more purchases, and this increase in demand will spark competition at a time when there is a limited supply of homes for sale.
More buyers who can afford mortgages entering the market will push up prices, analysts from Goldman Sachs said this week.
The investment bank’s experts project prices to soar by 5 percent in 2024, a marked revision from their earlier expectation of a 2 percent jump. That trend will continue through next year when prices are forecast to increase by nearly 4 percent, which is also a change from a previously estimated increase of close to 3 percent.
Amid the price increases, Goldman Sachs analysts anticipate that rates will fall to 6.63 percent for the year. This drop in rates from the near 8 percent highs of November 2023, will make house loans more affordable, sparking more demand for properties.
“We have very low inventory of houses for sale, which is generally supportive of prices, along with generally stable demand that is coming from things like household formation,” Roger Ashworth, senior strategist on the structured credit team at Goldman Sachs, said this week.
On Thursday, new home sales climbed up by 8 percent in December, according to government data, while prices declined to two-year lows. The fall in prices and a rise in sales was partly due to builders offering inducements to buyers, according to Yelena Maleyev, a senior economist at KPMG.
“Builders have pivoted to building smaller homes and offering more discounts and concessions, such as mortgage rate buydowns, to bring in buyers sidelined by rising mortgage rates,” she said in a note shared with Newsweek.
But the data from the U.S. Census Bureau also showed that inventory of newly built homes fell last month after going up the previous months. There were 453,000 houses available for sale at the end of December, which accounts for 8.2 months’ worth of supply.
This constituted a 3.5 percent decline from the same time a year ago, Maleyev pointed out.
The lack of inventory also comes at a time when the used homes market has struggled. Sales are down in that segment amid a lack of supply of homes as sellers are reluctant to give up their low rates for new home loans hovering in the mid-6 percent.
This lack of supply will be key to how prices shake out and the outlook for the year is not encouraging.
“If mortgage rates fall below 6 [percent] in 2024, more owners will feel comfortable listing their homes for sale, alleviating some of the shortages, but not enough to close the supply gap,” Maleyev said.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
Warning that the housing market is contracting again as today’s mortgage rates hover near 8%, Wells Fargo economists wrote in a new analysis that rising borrowing costs “stand to tip the housing sector back into a recession.”
The “ominous” special commentary posted Thursday, according to a Wells Fargo news release, states prospects for a housing rebound are dimming as mortgage rates tighten their grip on the already sharp U.S. housing affordability issues.
Even though the economy has shown “a remarkable degree of resilience” this year — and a strong labor market along with moderating inflation has “raised hopes that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession — the same can’t be said for the real estate market. Unfortunately, not every sector of the economy has been as sturdy in the face of rising debt costs,” the Wells Fargo economic group wrote.
“After generally improving in the first half of 2023, the residential sector now appears to be contracting alongside the recent move higher in mortgage rates,” they continued. “Although mortgage rates may gradually descend once the Federal Reserve begins to ease monetary policy, financing costs are likely to remain elevated relative to recent norms.”
The commentary comes days after Goldman Sachs analysts also issued a downgraded housing forecast, predicting “higher for longer” mortgage rates will continue to squeeze home inventory and yet home prices will stay in the green, though growth will be slight as sales slow even more.
It also comes a day after the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta posted an update to its Home Ownership Affordability Monitor, showing housing affordability sank to a “new record low” in August due to still stubbornly high prices and rising interest rates.
In yet another month of declines, the monitor index score sank to 67.3 in August with a national median home price of $377,500, a median income of $76,621, a total median monthly payment of $2,848 and an interest rate of 7.1%. The Atlanta Fed estimated the annual total payment share of median income to be 44.6%, well over the recommended 30% of income for housing costs.
Compare that score to a score of 112.3 in November 2012, when the median home price was $197,333, median income was $52,161, and the interest rate was 3.4%.
This latest affordability reading was back in August, before interest rates inched closer to 8%, hitting that threshold last week before tipping down only slightly, according to Mortgage News Daily.
This “higher for longer” interest rate climate is likely to “not only weigh on demand, but could also constrain supply by reducing new construction and discouraging prospective sellers carrying low mortgage rates from listing their homes for sale,” Wells Fargo economists wrote.
The bank’s analysts also downgraded their home price forecast, though now they expect a “slightly softer pace of home price appreciation in the years ahead.” Because high interest rates are expected to continue to both dampen demand and constrain supply, they predict those dynamics will continue to buoy home prices slightly.
“Higher financing costs are likely to both weigh on demand and constrain supply, which will allow home prices to maintain a positive trajectory,” Wells Fargo economists wrote, predicting the S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index to increase 1.8% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024.
The economic group also predicts a “downshift” in new residential construction starts, with multifamily permits already declining sharply in recent months.
“The recent drop in home builder confidence is evidence that single-family construction may begin to moderate as higher mortgage rates test builders’ ability to offer rate buy-downs to attract new buyers,” they wrote. “That noted, a structural shortfall of single-family supply will likely continue to boost new development.”
Source: deseret.com
There are signs that the labor market may be slowing down, sparking hope that the Federal Reserve will stop its ongoing tightening monetary policy, which has spurred increasing mortgage rates.
The Fed has decided to forge ahead in its fight against inflation, despite several bank closures that have caused turbulence in the financial markets.
Mortgage rates fell last week after a regional bank deposit run provoked a liquidity crisis, but what’s next for the housing market?
âI canât afford to sell because I donât want to lose that rateâ: 3% mortgage rates will loom large over the U.S. housing market for years to come Fortune
The housing market is on fire, with home prices up 20% today compared to one year ago. But if you thought that the market couldnât get any hotter, and that things might start to cool off soon, think again, as analysts believe there are yet more home price gains in store for 2022. Goldman Sachs […]
The post Goldman Sachs forecasts home prices to jump 16% in 2022 appeared first on RealtyBizNews: Real Estate Marketing & Beyond.