Uncommon Knowledge
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In addition, we can see the price reductions ticking up each week. They aren’t at a scary level, people are buying homes, but it’s notably softer on pricing than last year at this time.
Mortgage rates seem to have finally settled down. The Fed met last week and we escaped dramatic changes in the markets. I was worried that we might come out of that meeting with a spike in mortgage rates but that didn’t materialize so we got lucky.
I like to point out that consumers are more sensitive to changes in mortgage rates than to the absolute levels, and since rates are now basically unchanged for the month, just easing down from the early March peak of 7.2%, sellers and buyers are tip-toeing back into the market.
As a result, we continue to see the signals that home sales volume will grow this year and prices will be mostly flat. The price appreciation signals last year were stronger than they are now.
The available inventory of unsold homes continued to climb last week.
Inventory will cross over 2020 levels by July. We’ll finish the year with over 600,000 homes on the market unless rates reverse and fall quickly.
Three takeaways from the inventory data now:
1. Growing inventory this year means more sales can happen. More sellers means more sales will happen.
2. Year-over-year inventory growth points to weaker demand and is one of the signals that home prices won’t climb this year. We currently have 24% more homes on the market than a year ago.
3. The longer mortgage rates stay higher, the more inventory will grow closer to the old levels. If you’re a homebuyer and you’re waiting for mortgage rates to fall before you swoop in for a deal, recognize that even slightly lower rates will spur demand more than supply so inventory will start falling and selection and competition will be worse.
Each week this spring we’ve been tracking the new listings volume. Last week we saw just over 60,000 new listings added to the inventory with another 17,000 new listings / immediate sales. In total, new listings data is 14% more than last year. April is looking good for home sales growth.
A year with 5.5 to 6 million home sales would need probably 80,000 new listings of single family homes right now. And we have 60,000, so there simply aren’t enough homes for sale to hit the big sales numbers, but the lid is being lifted. We can see obvious growth.
As supply increases, the rate of sales is starting to pick up compared to a year ago. We can measure home sales in real time by tracking all the homes that moved to contract pending status this week. These “pendings” aren’t yet sold. They’ll spend 30 or 40 days in contract and the sales will mostly close in April or May.
There were 67,000 new contracts for single family homes this week compared to only 62,000 in the same week last year. There were another 15,000 condos into contract. This annualizes to only 4.3 million home sales, without any seasonal adjustment. So obviously the rate of sales is still pretty slow, which makes sense given the high mortgage rates. But the sales rate is climbing. The rate of new contracts is 8% more than last year but still 15% fewer than March of 2022, when buyers were desperately trying to get their deals done as rates were rising.
It looks like April will see decent home sales growth over 2023 but won’t overtake 2022 sales volumes until after July of this year. July of 2022 was when supply and demand fell precipitously. If mortgage rates stay stabilized in the upper 6s, these trends look durable to me.
Last week, all the current price measures actually had pretty healthy gains. When we look at all the homes on the market, the median price is now $439,000. That is up a fraction this week and just a little bit higher than last year. Home prices climb this time of year before peaking in June as the best inventory, the most new listings, and the best demand is in the market. This week’s price increase is right in the normal range for the end of March.
The price of new listings took a healthy jump this week, up 1% to $424,900. That’s nearly 4% higher than a year ago. It’s also to be expected that the price of new listings each week in the spring lurch higher. There is no signal of big home price changes in this leading indicator, but it’s nice that this move is up.
Four years ago in March 2022, we were at the start of the pandemic lockdown and we could see the price of the new listings drop very quickly. That price decline only last for three weeks though. And the price of the new listings was one of the important factors that showed us very quickly how there would be no housing crash as a result of the crisis.
The price of the homes going into contract across the country are holding up but also not accelerating. The median price of the new contracts this week was $389,900 — that’s up a fraction from last week and 4% more than a year ago. Home prices peaked in May of 2022 and didn’t surpass that during last year’s spring season. I expect we’ll hit new all-time highs for home prices in the next month or so, assuming these current trends hold.
Most of the signals in the data last week were pretty optimistic. If there is one factor to temper than optimism, it’s the price reductions. The percent of homes on the market with price cuts from their original list price ticked up to 31.4% this week. There are more homes on the market now that have felt the need to reduce asking price than there were a year ago. Last year’s market strength in Q1 and Q2 led to 5% home-price growth for the full year of 2023. We have less strength in pricing now than we did last year.
While price reductions are in the “normal” range, they are higher now than any March in many years. There are more sellers now who have reduced the asking prices on their homes than in any March in over a decade. This last decade was a very strong one for homebuyer demand, so we haven’t seen a “normal” market in a very long time.
This is a signal to pay attention to. It’s hard to see how home prices will grow nationally this year under these circumstances. We can see buyers in the market, but there is no signal of them pushing home prices higher. Sellers who over-price are being forced to reduce.
In March 2022, there were still very few overall homes with price reductions, but that was changing rapidly. The slope started to climb very quickly, especially in April and May of that year. The number peaked in November 2022 with 43% of the homes on the market needing price cuts. That November peak corresponded to home sales price declines four to six months later. That’s why this data is worth watching so closely: These price cuts tell us about demand now, which turns into sales several months down the road.
We can see homebuyers are very sensitive to mortgage rate moves. We can see the price reductions data adjust exactly in the moments that mortgage rates jump higher.
Source: housingwire.com
President Joe Biden has proposed an annual tax credit that would give Americans $400 a month for the next two years to put towards their mortgages.
Addressing the affordability crisis in the housing market in his State of the Union address on Thursday, Biden said: “I know the cost of housing is so important to you. Inflation keeps coming down, and mortgage rates will come down as well.
“But I’m not waiting. I want to provide an annual tax credit that will give Americans $400 a month for the next two years as mortgage rates come down, to put towards their mortgage when they buy their first home, or trade up for a little more space.”
Home prices skyrocketed during the pandemic, driven by relatively low mortgage rates, high demand and low inventory. At their peak, the median listed price for a home in the U.S. reached $465,000 in June 2022, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED).
While the housing market experienced a price correction between late summer 2022 and spring 2023, prices remain historically high, propped up by lingering low supply. In June 2023, the median listed price for a home in the U.S. was $448,000. As of January 2024, this was $409,500, according to data from FRED.
While home prices have stayed high for the past three years, a rise in mortgage rates driven by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive hike rate campaign last year has led to many aspiring homebuyers being completely squeezed out of the market. In December last year, the reserve said that it would have stopped rising rates, but mortgages are yet to significantly come down.
High mortgage rates, together with the historic shortage of homes in the U.S.—due to the fact that the country hasn’t built enough homes to meet demand since the housing crash of 2008—have contributed to the current affordability crisis.
In late 2023, J.P. Morgan said that, based on then-current trends, housing affordability could be restored in 3.5 years. Newsweek contacted J.P. Morgan for comment by email on Friday morning.
Biden is now calling on Congress to provide a one-year tax credit of up to $10,000 to middle-class families who sell their starter home—a home below the median home price of the area where it is located—to another owner or occupant. The White House said that this proposal could help nearly 3 million American families.
On Friday, Biden’s announcement on the tax credit was met with a standing ovation and roaring applause by Democratic lawmakers, while about half of the House stayed seated.
The president also mentioned other measures to address the housing affordability crisis in the U.S. These included down-payment assistance for first-generation homeowners, tax credit to build more housing, and lowering costs by building and preserving millions of homes.
“My administration is also eliminating title insurance on federally backed mortgages,” Biden told lawmakers on Friday.
“When you refinance your home, you can save $1,000 or more as a consequence. We’re cracking down on big landlords who break antitrust laws by price-fixing and driving up rents. We’ve cut red tape, so builders can get federal financing,” the president said among the cheering of some lawmakers.
Update, 3/8/24, 8 a.m. ET: The headline on this article was updated.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
“OMG I missed it. I should’ve bought two years ago.”
“Am I too late? Are all the good deals gone?”
“Look at how much cheaper it used to be. I’m priced out now.”
“Isn’t my best bet to wait for a crash?”
Oh my dear friend.
Those sound like remarks made today … right?
Well, they’re not.
Those are the remarks I heard in 2015, even everyone was lamenting how much real estate prices had climbed, relative to 2012.
“Damn I should’ve bought back then! It’s too late now. Everything’s expensive again. I’ll just wait for prices to come down.”
I know, that seems silly in hindsight.
But put yourself in the shoes of an aspiring real estate investor in the year 2015. They had been thinking about buying a rental property for a year or two. But they hadn’t. And while they sat on the sidelines, prices skyrocketed.
The chart above covers January 2010 to December 2015.
In 2015, this was a prospective investors’ experience of the last 5 years. They saw home prices dip slightly from 2010 to 2012, and it scared them — “maybe there will be another crash!!” — so they sat on the sidelines.
Then the market boomed from 2012 to 2015, and by the end of that three-year period, they were kicking themselves to “waiting too long.”
“It’s too late!!!!!”
“The good deals are gone!!”
With the Great Recession in such recent memory, they comforted themselves with the idea that they could just kick back and wait for the next housing crash.
Nearly nine years later, they’re still waiting. And missing out on gains.
Here’s what the market did from January 2016 through May 2023:
Up, up, up, up, up.
Sliiiight dip for a few months in late 2022. Then up again.
The people who lamented that they’d “waited too long” and “it’s too late” psyched themselves out. They sidelined themselves. They missed those returns.
You see, pessimists get to make excuses. Pessimists get to validate themselves.
Pessimists get to be right.
Optimists get to be rich.
“The irony is that by trying to avoid the price, investors end up paying double,” Morgan Housel writes in his book, The Psychology of Money.
In that passage, he’s discussing stock investing, but the principle applies to real estate as well. Those who lament that real estate is too expensive, relative to its previous values, are the same people who eagerly buy an index fund without complaining that it, too, is substantially more expensive than it was a few years ago.
I’ve never heard anyone say: “VTSAX is 50 percent more expensive than it was five years ago! It’s too late to buy. The good deals are gone. I’ll wait for the next crash.”
Yet they’ll say that about real estate.
Sure, people might debate whether the stock market is overvalued. But if you’re a long-term investor, you dollar-cost average into the market.
You understand that a share of VTSAX will cost significantly more today than it did five years ago, because, well, assets appreciate over the long-term. That’s the point.
Ideally, real estate investors would be best-off viewing their properties through the same lens through which an index fund investor views their holdings.
Sometimes you’ll buy high. Other times, you might hold through a decline. But over the long-term, based on historic trends, both asset classes (real estate and index funds) significantly rise in value.
Yet often, would-be real estate investors seem to forget historical trends.
When the topic turns to rental properties, many would-be investors sideline themselves because they’re convinced that “I’m too late” and “the good deals are gone.”
Sure, you can’t blindfold yourself, throw a dart at a list of houses, and find one with an amazing cap rate, like you could in 2012.
Sure, you have to actually, erm, what’s that word … WORK.
Good deals are available for those willing to find them.
Back in 2015, I often heard people lament that they were “too late” because real estate prices had risen so much in the past three years. “I should’ve invested in 2012! The run-up has already happened. I’m too late. I’ll wait for the next crash.”
Nearly nine years later, they’re still waiting.
The question is: are you going to be one of those people who says “it’s too late! the good deals are gone!” and then sit on the sidelines for the next 30+ years? Or are you going to train and compete?
If you choose to leave the sidelines and get into the game —
The first step is to understand: It’s not too late.
The prices that existed five years ago are irrelevant.
The only question that matters: “Is this a good deal today?”
It’s easy to substantiate the belief that you’ve missed out on all the good returns — you can see how much home prices have appreciated over the past three years. You can see all the capital appreciation you could have had, if only you’d gotten started sooner.
Just like if you’d bought a ton of index funds in 2018. Or better yet, March 2009.
Assets appreciate.
Sometimes there’s volatility, and they drop a little bit. But historically, in the U.S., major asset classes — including stocks and real estate — have always risen over time.
We seem to have accepted this reality in the world of stock investing. We don’t reflexively lament *not* buying more index funds at 2012 prices.
We might occasionally joke about it — “awww man I shoulda bought Amazon in 1997!” — but we know that when we buy a stock, we’ve evaluating today’s fundamentals. Past is prologue.
When we evaluate stocks, we ask: “Is this stock a wise purchase at today’s price?” But we forget to ask this question when we’re dealing with a tangible asset class like real estate.
Real estate often fills people with fear:
Real estate’s tangibility also makes it an inherently emotionally-charged asset class. We can touch it, smell it, see it, hear its creaks and noises.
And when emotions are involved, we rationalize rather than reason.
“Assuming that something ugly will stay ugly is an easy forecast to make,” Housel writes. “And it’s persuasive, because it doesn’t require imagining the world changing.”
Pessimism is tempting, but it’s also limiting — and its intellectually lazy.
It keeps you broke and uncreative.
Optimism, by contrast, keeps you asking “how can I?” — it keeps you solving problems, rather than lamenting them.
Ask “How can I?” rather than lamenting “I can’t because …” and you’ll find your world switch.
And if you want answers to the above questions, you’ll find them in Your First Rental Property, our flagship course.
— Paula
Source: affordanything.com
Mortgage interest rates inched up this week, following nine straight declines totaling a decrease of 118 basis points (1.18%).
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) rose from 6.61% on Dec. 28 to 6.62% on Jan. 4, according to Freddie Mac.
“Given the expectation of rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, as well as receding inflationary pressures, we expect mortgage rates will continue to drift downward as the year unfolds,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
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Mortgage rates fluctuated significantly in 2023, with the average 30-year fixed rate going as low as 6.09% on Feb. 2 and as high as 7.79% on Oct. 26, according to Freddie Mac.
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The range can be largely attributed to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against inflation, juxtaposed with uncertainty in the banking sector sparked by Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. However, with duress permeating the financial market and the fallout from U.S. debt ceiling talks, the Fed may continue making hikes to bring interest rates down.
With the economy likely heading into a recession, it’s possible we’ve already seen the peak of this rate cycle. Of course, interest rates are notoriously volatile and could tick back up on any given week.
Experts from CoreLogic, Home Qualified, Realtor.com and others weigh in on whether 30-year mortgage rates will climb, fall, or level off in January.
Craig Berry, branch manager at Acopia Home Loans
Prediction: Rates will moderate
“As inflation is the no. 1 item on the Federal Reserve’s radar right now, the Feds may choose not to lower the federal funds rate until inflation comes down. And, while Fed rate cuts aren’t a must-have in order for mortgage rates to come down, interest rates are affected by the federal funds rate.
The Feds continue to seek a balance between inflation and maximum employment so as not to cause significant damage to the economy which could trigger a recession. Recent momentum has been positive, and as long inflation cooperates, mortgage rates may see a slight decline in January. However, it isn’t likely that we’ll see significant drops to longer-term rates until we get further into 2024.”
Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified
Prediction: Rates will fall
“Rates finally shifted down some in December and stabilized lower. U.S. payrolls came in lower than anticipated, unemployment was up and building of new homes was down. These are good signs that inflation may have reached its peak and could trigger a lowering of rates. I expect the Fed to stay neutral for the time being and possibly through the first quarter of the year with possible cuts coming only if we see a drastic shift in the economy. For January, I believe the average 30-year fixed will land at 7.125% and the 15-year fixed will be 6.75%.”
Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic
Prediction: Rates will fall
“Mortgage rates should continue to decline, albeit very gradually and given there are no surprises with inflation. We should see rates fall below 7% mark.”
Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com
Prediction: Rates will fall
“If inflation and employment data continue to show signs of slowing, mortgage rates are likely to ease in January, though at a slower clip than in recent weeks. As incoming data confirms that the economy is indeed cooling, the upward pressure on mortgage rates will continue to let up and buyers will enjoy lower rates than in recent months.
However, if inflation or employment data come in stronger than expected, we could see rates pick up steam once again. Investors expect the Fed to hold steady at the current target rate in next week’s meeting, which would signal the Committee’s confidence in the current policy stance to bring inflation down to the target 2%. As inflation reaches the target level, mortgage rates will continue to drift lower.”
Jess Kennedy, COO at Beeline
Prediction: Rates will fall
“We expect rates to continue to ease as we kick off 2024. You can see the signaling of a rate cut from the Fed in many ways. For example, it is harder to find long-term CDs at the higher interest rates we were seeing 45-60 days ago). Publicly traded companies are also seeing their stock prices move higher on the expectation of rate relief in 2024. All these signs signal rates start to tick down even ahead of an official rate cut.”
Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American
Prediction: Rates will fall
“In light of favorable trends in inflation and labor market data, the Federal Reserve appears to be on a path towards its goals, although achieving its 2% inflation target will take some time. Consequently, the Fed is expected to maintain a restrictive stance, which will keep mortgage rates elevated. However, given slowing inflation and a cooling labor market, and barring any unforeseen developments, modest reductions in mortgage rates are possible in January.”
Rick Sharga, CEO at CJ Patrick Company
Prediction: Rates will fall
“With inflation moving in the right direction, wage growth slowing, and the jobs market softening a bit, it seems likely that the Federal Reserve has finished rate hikes for this cycle. That, coupled with weakening bond yields, should create an environment where mortgage rates can start a gradual, but steady decline throughout 2024. January rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans will probably straddle 7% — ranging from 7.1% to about 6.9% as the market finds its footing to begin the year.”
As inflation ran rampant in 2022, the Federal Reserve took action to bring it down and that led to the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage spiking in 2023.
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With inflation gradually cooling, the Fed adjusted its policies with smaller and skipped hikes. Additionally, the economy showing signs of slowing has many experts believing mortgage interest rates will gradually descend in 2024.
Of course, rates could rise on any given week or if another global event causes widespread uncertainty in the economy.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.62%% as of Jan. 4, according to Freddie Mac. All five major housing authorities we looked at project 2024’s first quarter average to finish above that.
The National Association of Home Builders sits at the low end of the group, predicting the average 30-year fixed interest rate to settle at 7.04% for Q1. Meanwhile, Fannie Mae had the highest forecast of 7.6%.
Housing Authority | 30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast (Q1 2024) |
National Association of Home Builders | 6.77% |
Wells Fargo | 6.85% |
Fannie Mae | 7.00% |
Mortgage Bankers Association | 7.00% |
National Association of Realtors | 7.50% |
Average Prediction | 7.02% |
Mortgage rates came down for the ninth consecutive week.
The average 30-year fixed rate increased from 6.61% on Dec. 28 to 6.62% on Jan. 4 The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate fell, going from 5.93% to 5.89%.
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Month | Average 30-Year Fixed Rate |
December 2022 | 6.36% |
January 2023 | 6.27% |
February 2023 | 6.26% |
March 2023 | 6.54% |
April 2023 | 6.34% |
May 2023 | 6.43% |
June 2023 | 6.71% |
July 2023 | 6.84% |
August 2023 | 7.07% |
September 2023 | 7.20% |
October 2023 | 7.62% |
November 2023 | 7.44% |
December 2023 | 6.82% |
Source: Freddie Mac
After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2024. Whatever happens, interest rates are still below historical averages.
Dating back to April 1971, the fixed 30-year interest rate averaged around 7.8%, according to Freddie Mac. So if you haven’t locked a rate yet, don’t lose too much sleep over it. You can still get a good deal, historically speaking — especially if you’re a borrower with strong credit.
Just make sure you shop around to find the best lender and lowest rate for your unique situation.
Many mortgage shoppers don’t realize there are different types of rates in today’s mortgage market. But this knowledge can help home buyers and refinancing households find the best value for their situation.
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The best mortgage for you depends on your financial situation and your goals.
For instance, if you want to buy a high-priced home and you have great credit, a jumbo loan is your best bet. Jumbo mortgages allow loan amounts above conforming loan limits, which max out at $ in most parts of the U.S.
On the other hand, if you’re a veteran or service member, a VA loan is almost always the right choice. VA loans are backed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. They provide ultra-low rates and never charge private mortgage insurance (PMI). But you need an eligible service history to qualify.
Conforming loans and FHA loans (those backed by the Federal Housing Administration) are great low-down-payment options.
Conforming loans allow as little as 3% down with FICO scores starting at 620. FHA loans are even more lenient about credit; home buyers can often qualify with a score of 580 or higher, and a less-than-perfect credit history might not disqualify you.
Finally, consider a USDA loan if you want to buy or refinance real estate in a rural area. USDA loans have below-market rates — similar to VA — and reduced mortgage insurance costs. The catch? You need to live in a ‘rural’ area and have moderate or low income to be USDA-eligible.
Mortgage rates displayed their famous volatility in 2023. Uncertainty in the banking sector led to downtrends, but ongoing inflation battles, Fed hikes and a hot job market drove growth.
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At its September and November meetings, the central bank held off on a rate hike, preferring to see if the economy would keep cooling organically. In December, the FOMC skipped a hike and projected cuts for 2024. As always, the committee said it would adjust its policies as necessary — which could mean additional hikes or possibly none at all.
Here are just a few strategies to keep in mind if you’re mortgage shopping in the coming months.
Indecision can lead to failure or missed opportunities. That holds true in home buying as well.
Although the housing market is becoming more balanced than the recent past, it still favors sellers. Prospective borrowers should take the lessons learned from the last few years and apply them now even though conditions are less extreme.
“Taking too long to decide to make an offer can lead to paying more for the home at best and at worst to losing out on it entirely. Buyers should get pre-approved (not pre-qualified) for their mortgage, so that the seller has some certainty about the deal closing. And be ready to close quickly — a long escrow period will put you at a disadvantage.
And it’s definitely not a bad idea to work with a real estate agent who has access to “coming soon” properties, which can give a buyer a little bit of a head start competing for the limited number of homes available,” said Rick Sharga.
Buyer demand is lower than a typical year, but the market usually heats up in spring and summer. Being decisive (and prepared) should only play to your advantage.
Since interest rates can vary drastically from day to day and from lender to lender, failing to shop around likely leads to money lost.
Lenders charge different rates for different levels of credit scores. And while there are ways to negotiate a lower mortgage rate, the easiest is to get multiple quotes from multiple lenders and leverage them against each other.
“For potential home buyers, it’s important to get quotes from multiple lenders for a mortgage, as rates can vary dramatically, especially during such a volatile period,” said Odeta Kushi.
As the mortgage market slows due to lessened demand, lenders will be more eager for business. While missing out on the rock-bottom rates of 2020 and 2021 may sting, there’s always a way to use the market to your advantage.
Rate shopping doesn’t just mean looking at the lowest rates advertised online because those aren’t available to everyone. Typically, those are offered to borrowers with great credit who can put a down payment of 20% or more.
The rate lenders actually offer depends on:
To figure out what rate a lender can offer you based on those factors, you have to fill out a loan application. Lenders will check your credit and verify your income and debts, then give you a ‘real’ rate quote based on your financial situation.
You should get three to five of these quotes at a minimum, then compare them to find the best offer. Look for the lowest rate, but also pay attention to your annual percentage rate (APR), estimated closing costs, and ‘discount points’ — extra fees charged upfront to lower your rate.
This might sound like a lot of work. But you can shop for mortgage rates in under a day if you put your mind to it. And shaving just a few basis points off your rate can save you thousands.
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Current mortgage rates are averaging 6.62% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan and 5.89% for a 15-year fixed-rate loan, according to Freddie Mac’s latest weekly rate survey. Your individual rate could be higher or lower than the average depending on your credit score, down payment, and the lender you choose to work with, among other factors.
Mortgage rates could decrease next week (Jan. 8-12, 2024) if the mortgage market takes a cautious approach to a possible recession. However, rates could rise if lenders account for the Federal Reserve taking measures to counteract inflation or if a global event brings economic uncertainty.
If inflation continues to dissipate and the economy cools or goes into a recession, it’s likely mortgage rates will decrease in 2024. Although, it’s important to remember that interest rates are notoriously volatile and are driven by many factors, so they can rise during any given week.
Mortgage rates may continue to rise in 2024. High inflation, a strong housing market, and policy changes by the Federal Reserve have all pushed rates higher in 2022 and 2023. However, if the U.S. does indeed enter a recession, mortgage rates could come down.
Freddie Mac is now citing average 30-year rates in the 7% range. If you can find a rate in the 5s or 6s, you’re in a very good position. Remember that rates vary a lot by borrower. Those with perfect credit and large down payments may get below-average interest rates, while poor-credit borrowers and those with non-QM loans could see much higher rates. You’ll need to get pre-approved for a mortgage to know your exact rate.
For the most part, industry experts do not expect the housing market to crash in 2023. Yes, home prices are over-inflated. But many of the risk factors that led to the 2008 crash are not present in today’s market. Low inventory and massive buyer demand should keep the market propped up next year. Plus, mortgage lending practices are much safer than they used to be. That means there’s not a subprime mortgage crisis waiting in the wings.
At the time of this writing, the lowest 30-year mortgage rate ever was 2.65%. That’s according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the most widely used benchmark for current mortgage interest rates.
Locking your rate is a personal decision. You should do what’s right for your situation rather than trying to time the market. If you’re buying a home, the right time to lock a rate is after you’ve secured a purchase agreement and shopped for your best mortgage deal. If you’re refinancing, you should make sure you compare offers from at least three to five lenders before locking a rate. That said, rates are rising. So the sooner you can lock in today’s market, the better.
That depends on your situation. It’s a good time to refinance if your current mortgage rate is above market rates and you could lower your monthly mortgage payment. It might also be good to refinance if you can switch from an adjustable-rate mortgage to a low fixed-rate mortgage; refinance to get rid of FHA mortgage insurance; or switch to a short-term 10- or 15-year mortgage to pay off your loan early.
It’s often worth refinancing for 1 percentage point, as this can yield significant savings on your mortgage payments and total interest payments. Just make sure your refinance savings justify your closing costs. You can use a mortgage calculator or speak with a loan officer to crunch the numbers.
Start by choosing a list of three to five mortgage lenders that you’re interested in. Look for lenders with low advertised rates, great customer service scores, and recommendations from friends, family, or a real estate agent. Then get pre-approved by those lenders to see what rates and fees they can offer you. Compare your offers (Loan Estimates) to find the best overall deal for the loan type you want.
Mortgage rates are rising, but borrowers can almost always find a better deal by shopping around. Connect with a mortgage lender to find out exactly what rate you qualify for.
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1Today’s mortgage rates are based on a daily survey of select lending partners of The Mortgage Reports. Interest rates shown here assume a credit score of 740. See our full loan assumptions here.
Selected sources:
Source: themortgagereports.com
It was late 2022 and Mike was feeling the pressure. Mortgage rates had climbed close to the 7% range and he was determined to remain competitive on pricing with rival loan officers in North Carolina.
But there was a problem: pricing exceptions, in which the lender takes the hit, were becoming scarce at his company. So he did what a lot of retail loan officers in the industry were doing — Mike would reclassify a self-generated lead as a corporate-generated lead, thus slashing his compensation from 125 basis points down to as low as 50 bps, giving him a low enough rate to win the client and eventually close the deal. His manager and company bosses knew that he and other LOs were lying about where the lead source came from, he said.
The lower comp rate stung. After Mike paid his loan officer assistant, he was clearing just 40 bps. Still, it was better than nothing. After all, tens of thousands of loan officers had already exited the industry because they couldn’t generate enough business.
“At this time, I didn’t really think of it as an ethical issue,” Mike, whose last name is being withheld for fear of retaliation, told HousingWire in an interview in late November. “But it started to wear on me to where it was like, okay, I’m getting price-shopped left and right. I’m feeling the pressure to cut my pay, because when I do it, and my agent partners, they see that I do that, and then they’ll tell people they refer to me. ‘Hey, he can dig deeper if he really has to.’”
Mike continued: “Well, doesn’t that smack of bad faith if I’m not offering them my best price from jump? I would get people saying to me, ‘I’m not going to go in with you. I don’t feel comfortable with you, because you tried to get me to go for a higher pricing first, and then only offered a better deal once I told you I had another offer.”
Mike said he left that lender in early 2023 as a result of the ‘bucket game’ and refuses to manipulate where lead sources are coming from at his current shop.
“It’s a race to the bottom,” he said of the practice.
Over the past two months, HousingWire has interviewed more than a dozen loan officers, mortgage executives, attorneys and also reviewed several companies’ loan officer contracts and text messages between recruiters and prospects to shed light on the growing issue of pricing bucket manipulation, which critics say distorts market pricing and could represent a violation of fair lending laws.
It’s unknown how many retail lenders are engaged in the practice of falsifying lead sources to lower loan officer pay, but industry practitioners say it’s widespread, and in most cases, reclassifying leads into different pricing buckets before they lock is not permitted by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s rules under Regulation Z.
It’s also unclear whether the CFPB is policing the practice; HousingWire could find no record of enforcement actions taken, and the agency’s audits are not public record.
In the wake of the housing crash in 2008, the CFPB created new rules that reshaped how loan officers were compensated. The architects of the new rules wanted to prevent loan officers from taking advantage of borrowers, which was a common occurrence in the days leading up to the Great Recession.
Under an updated Regulation Z, lenders could no longer pay loan officers differently based on terms of loans other than the amount of credit extended. In theory, this means loan officers provide the same service and pricing on loans, reducing the risk of steering.
“LOs also can’t get paid on proxies, and they define proxies to be pretty straightforward: some factor that correlates to terms over a significant number of transactions, and the LOs have the ability to change that factor,” said Troy Garris, co-managing partner at Garris Horn LLP.
But the CFPB did allow loan officers to be compensated differently based on lead sources, which do not fall under the category of terms or proxies and are neither a right or an obligation.
For example, when an existing customer calls the lender’s call center for a new mortgage or refinance, and the lender redirects the loan to the LO, “the LO gets paid less because it was sourced from the company, and it is less work for the LO,” said Colgate Selden, a founding member of the CFPB and an attorney at SeldenLindeke LLP. When it’s an outside lead, “the LOs generated the lead themselves; they are spending time marketing to new borrowers, so they get paid more.”
Attorneys told HousingWire that in the current marketplace, violations of LO Comp rules can arise when lenders and LOs alter compensation by changing the lead source after the initial contact with the borrower to lower their rate and secure the deals. Regulation Z generally does not allow LOs to change which lead source was used.
But, in today’s competitive market, “I do think there’s an incentive, especially on the LO side, to find ways to do something different – and probably also for companies to decide to take more risk,” said Garris. “We believe this is happening because people are frequently asking if there’s a rule change.”
LOs who spoke to HousingWire said managers often told them they wouldn’t get pricing exceptions on deals, so if they wanted to gain an edge it would have to come out of their pay. Three loan officers at three different retail lenders described it as a feature of their lender’s business model.
“You feel out a prospective client during the initial conversation, get a sense of whether they know how everything works, if they’ve spoken to another lender, if they’re going to shop you, right? And you quote them the best possible rate you could give them that day, knowing that you’ll put them in a bucket just before lock,” said one Wisconsin-based LO. “It doesn’t really matter what you quote them in the initial conversation as long as you can get it below competitors around lock time…either through a pricing exception or the bucket [manipulation].”
One top-producing California-based loan officer said she was excited when a top 35 mortgage lender tried to recruit her with the promise of multiple pricing buckets. Having the buckets would provide her flexibility that her current lender didn’t offer, she thought at the time.
“What the [recruiting] company told me explicitly was the loan originator, when they go to lock the loan, they check a box – is it self, branch or corp gen? And you only get to check one box, but it’s the loan officer’s choosing, not the branch,” she said. “So the loan originator is choosing, not the branch that says I’m going to give you a lead and this is the comp for it. Not the corporate advertisement or online group that says you’re getting this lead from us and here’s documentation that it occurred and now you’re going to get less comp. It’s the ultimate in legalized fraud. Because it’s not true.”
These days, many lenders have pricing buckets for corporate-generated leads, branch leads, builder leads, marketing service agreement (MSAs) leads, internet leads from aggregators and more. In and of itself, it’s legal, provided the lead really did come from the source and it’s diligently tracked by the lender.
Loan officers and mortgage executives interviewed by HousingWire said some lenders justify the practice of manipulating the buckets by telling LOs it’s legal and they’ve been audited by the CFPB, which has not found any wrongdoing. Several executives accused of the practice declined to comment on the record about pricing bucket manipulation, though they all said they track leads as required and are in full compliance with the law.
Selden, the former CFPB attorney, said that LOs are telling borrowers who complain about high mortgage rates that companies are “running a special offer.” Borrowers are directed to the company’s website, where, by indicating the LO name, they supposedly qualify for a special deal with a lower rate. In reality, at lenders without adequate controls to prevent lead source manipulation, this shifts the source from self-generated to an in-house lead.
LOs interviewed by HousingWire said that in some cases they would be able to change the lead referral source themselves, and in other cases they’d need a manager to alter the lead source in the loan origination system.
While many instances of price bucket manipulation were directed by managers, LOs would also self-select, said Mike.
“Most of the time you don’t have a loan estimate from a competitor, you’re just afraid that you’re going to lose it because you’re so embarrassed about the rate. And that’s why a lot of my comrades… were going to the corporate-generated lead bucket before they even confirmed that they had to. Partly because you wanted to lead with your best price.”
Steve vonBerg, an attorney at law firm Orrick in Washington, D.C., worked as a loan officer and underwriter for seven years. He emphasized the potential trouble for lenders and LOs inaccurately classifying the lead source.
“Often, a [CFPB] examiner would see if the lead channel changed later in the process. That could be legitimate: the borrower starts working with an LO, and it’s a self-sourced lead for that LO, but then decides to buy a home in a different state in the middle of the process; the second LO that it has to be transferred to has now an internal-company referral, and so the lead source would legitimately change,” vonBerg said. “But, if there isn’t a legitimate reason for the lead source changing midstream, that would be fairly easy for an examiner to identify.”
Victor Ciardelli is frustrated by the bucket game. Deeply frustrated. The Guaranteed Rate founder and CEO says he is losing money and loan officers to rivals because of a business practice that he says is flagrantly illegal, pervasive, and does not appear to be slowing down anytime soon.
Some rival retail lenders, he says, are creating up to a dozen pricing buckets for their loan officers. The tiered nature of the bucket comp structure in many cases — self generated being the highest at up to 150 bps, 100 bps for another ‘bucket,’ 80 bps for another, down to 60 bps, 40 bps and sometimes all the way to zero — proves that it is a deliberate business strategy, he said.
“It wasn’t intended that the loan officer at the time that they’re talking to the consumer and quoting them a rate, that the loan officer can put the consumer in any bucket they want,” he said in an interview with HousingWire. “But that is exactly what’s happening. What’s exactly happening is the fact that there’s all these different pricing buckets for a lot of these different companies out there. And that the loan officer is allowed to go in and offer the consumer whatever rate based on what the loan officer wants.”
He argued that LOs are maximizing their personal income per borrower.
“It’s no different than what happened prior to Dodd-Frank, where it was the wild, wild West and people were playing games with customers on rates and fees,” said Ciardelli. “It’s the same thing today. There’s no difference except the fact that there’s a law in place that tells the mortgage company and the individual loan officer. And the loan officers know that they’re violating the law. It’s greed.”
Ciardelli says the rival CEOs — he declined to name individuals and said it’s an industry-wide problem — are establishing these buckets and know “full well that the bucket is put in place in order to lie about where the lead source is coming from.”
They have an obligation to know where the leads are coming from, that the loan officers are putting them in the appropriate bucket and that they are being tracked, he said.
“The loan officer may take a hit on that loan, and may make less on that loan, but the company themselves doesn’t take the hit, their margin stays the same. So the company CEO is happy, because they’re like, ‘I’m giving my loan officers all this flexibility to go out and be competitive and win deals. And they’re going to win more deals than anybody else out there, because they’re going to be able to slot the individual borrower into these different lead channels. So the individual CEO is making all the money. They’re the ones killing it.”
Ciardelli says he asked about the bucket pricing game and attorneys all told him no, it’s not legal, he said.
“I’ll play by whatever the law is…But when the rules are set up to be a certain way and people are not following the rules, then that’s a problem.”
Two other executives at large retail lenders also said they’ve lost loan officers to competitors who are sanctioning, if not directing, the manipulation of pricing buckets.
“The LOs get told this is legal, it’s just pricing flexibility so they can compete, and they have a compliance team that monitors it,” said one executive at a regional lender in the South. “Obviously that’s not true… What’s happening is they [the lenders] are pricing high and basically forcing the LOs to cut from say 150 [basis points down to 50 [basis points] on some loans because otherwise they just won’t do enough business. It’s a feature, not a bug, as they say. We asked our attorneys if we could do this and they told us absolutely not.”
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is aware of the issue. The organization asked an outside attorney from Orrick Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP to study the permissibility of the practice. In a letter sent to members in February 2023, Orrick advised MBA members that changing the lead source of a loan after beginning work on the application in order to make a competitive pricing concession “is not permissible.”
The letter has had little meaningful impact, sources told HousingWire. If anything, the practice has increased over the last year.
Another repercussion in the market is that savvy borrowers gain access to lower rates when lead sources are manipulated. Less educated applicants could be quoted higher rates for the same loan, raising concerns about fair lending practices.
But this argument prompts a broader discussion on the efficacy of the LO comp rule, with divergent opinions on the matter.
“I used to be an MLO for seven years. I was in the industry in the 2000s until it melted down, and then I ended up going to law school because I had lost my job. I originated hundreds of loans myself, and personally, I think overall the rule is a good rule,” vonBerg said.
vonBerg elaborated: “Under the old regime, LOs were not incentivized to offer their consumers the best loan and best pricing for them. They were incentivized to give them the loans and pricing where they would make more money. Although it has some issues that should be corrected, I think the LO comp rule makes a lot of sense, in that it removes a gigantic conflict of interest.”
Not everyone shares this viewpoint.
“The LO comp rule was designed to prevent steering to high-cost loans. And really, those things don’t exist anymore. We can’t put borrowers in homes that they can’t afford,” said Brian Levy, Of Counsel at Katten and Temple, LLP.
According to Levy, the rule creates “a tremendous amount of anxiety for the mortgage lending industry that doesn’t benefit consumers in any meaningful way.”
“The industry is frustrated. They’re unable to easily reduce prices. For example, in the past, before the rule was around, LOs were able to take less as a commission, just like any other salesperson – a car salesperson – to make the deal work. That’s illegal now for loan officers. The mortgage company can make that decision [of lowering their margins and reducing rate], but the loan officer cannot.”
Levy noted that some consider the LO comp rule to be a de facto fair lending rule.
“But we already have fair lending rules. The idea that if the loan officer is discounting their fees, they would end up discounting on a discriminatory basis would already be problematic under existing law, so you don’t need the LO comp rule to make that illegal. It’s already illegal to discriminate in pricing. That said, it’s not illegal for people to negotiate just like you can negotiate a car price.”
The CFPB has also taken issue with other forms of pricing concessions over the last year. In the summer of 2022, the agency reported that pricing exceptions, in which the lender offers a discount, had harmed protected classes, who were less likely to be offered discounts.
Multiple sources said the CFPB audits about 20% of mortgage lenders per year, and because of the prevalence of this practice, would undoubtedly have come across lead bucket pricing manipulation by now.
Why there hasn’t been any enforcement to date or whether there’s a future enforcement action is just on the horizon is hard to know.
The CFPB, which is undertaking a broad review of the LO Comp rule, declined to make anyone available to speak on the issue.
“We cannot comment on any ongoing enforcement or supervision matters,” said Raul Cisneros, a Bureau spokesperson. “Those who witness potential industry misconduct should consider reporting it by going here. Additionally, we always welcome stakeholder feedback on any of our rules, including the loan officer compensation rules.”
In early 2023, the CFPB initiated a review of Regulation Z‘s mortgage loan originator rules, which include certain provisions regarding compensation. However, industry experts do not foresee substantial changes or anticipate the CFPB addressing the issue of lead source manipulation.
“In fact, there haven’t been a lot of public enforcement actions by the CFPB in several years [on the LO comp rule]. But having said that, we used to complain that the CFPB was participating in regulation by enforcement, and now they seem to be regulating by supervisory highlights,” Kris Kully, a law firm Mayer Brown partner, said.
The CFPB’s latest move regarding the LO Comp Rule was to issue a supervisory highlight in the summer stating that compensating an LO differently based on whether a loan product was originated in-house or brokered to an outside lender is prohibited.
Industry practitioners said the lack of enforcement from regulators has allowed the pricing bucket manipulation practice to flourish, creating an uneven playing field.
“You have all these companies that all of a sudden are starting to get a free pass,” Ciardelli said. “They’re like, ‘I’m not having any audits. I’m not having anybody come and say anything to me. I mean, nothing’s really happening. I’m pretty much unscathed here.’ And year after year goes by, there’s no auditors, there’s no issues. And then they start to move the needle on how they’re running their business and decisions they’re making. And they have less fear of the government, less fear of the existing rules that are in place, because the rules that were set up are not being enforced.”
Another mortgage executive speculated that the pricing bucket games will come to an end not because of CFPB enforcement, but because loan officers and executives will battle it out in court.
“I’ve got calls from loan officers who feel like they’ve been pushed into a lower commission scale than they thought they were going to get to start with,” he said. “I hired somebody from a well-known lender. When they hired her, they told her, ‘Hey, these are what the rates are and this is what the commission is.’ When she got over there, the rates they were quoting were the lead-based rates, not the hundred-based points they were promising her… I don’t think the enforcement will come from the CFPB. I think it’ll come from some type of lawsuit like that.”
The lasting impact of LOs cutting their comp to win clients and close deals won’t be clear until mortgage rates meaningfully fall for a sustained period.
But many fear that the genie can’t be put back in the bottle.
“We’ve done this so much that they’ve built it into their pricing,” said Mike, the loan officer in North Carolina. “They are pricing things higher, assuming that we’re going to cut our pay, and protect their margins. So to me that’s the bigger issue for us selfishly, is we start doing that, and it’s going to become the norm. The pricing system and everything is going to assume that we’ll do that.”
He mused that RESPA guidelines prohibit an LO from buying a Realtor partner a Big Mac after a closing but lying about a lead source is not policed.
“Personally being an LO, the biggest issue to me is, they’re screwing with us and just… That’s how all these shops are finding a lifeline to keep their doors open. ‘We don’t have to pay them 100 bps, we can just pay them 50, and they’ll take it on the chin.’ And it’s like, yeah, we’ll take it on the chin. Many of us are using the heck out of our credit cards right now to survive. It’s not cool.”
Source: housingwire.com
If you peruse real estate listings on Realtor.com, you might come across a new Airbnb integration.
This week, the two companies announced a collaboration that lets homeowners see how much they could fetch to rent out a room, or the entire house.
It comes at a time when short-term rentals, or STRs for short, are somewhat under-fire given their immense growth.
The Airbnb story also happens to coincide with a residential housing shortage, with some critics blaming STRs on the lack of supply.
In any event, if you’re interested in seeing your Airbnb earnings estimates, you’ll need to add your property to Realtor’s My Home dashboard first.
To get started, you’ll need to head over to the My Home dashboard on Realtor.com and add your property if you haven’t already.
This will also entail creating an account on Realtor.com if you don’t have one. It’s fairly simple and seems to only require an email and password.
From there, you’ll see a variety of information pertaining to the property added, including its RealEstimate, which is the site’s take on a Zestimate.
You’ll also see a tab titled “Host or rent,” which will contain your Airbnb host estimate. It provides both an entire home estimate and a room estimate.
A sample of the entire home estimate can be seen in the screenshot above. The single room estimate can be seen below.
It defaults to a 7 nights out of a month to give you a rough estimate of what you could earn via the Airbnb platform for renting it out for part of the month.
The estimates, which are provided by Airbnb, consider factors such as the zip code and bedroom count.
Airbnb reviews booking data over the past 12 months from the top 50% of similar listings (based on earnings) in the area where your home is located.
Then it computes nightly earnings, which are defined as the price set by each Airbnb Host minus the Airbnb Host service fee.
Note that Airbnb doesn’t subtract cleaning fees, taxes or other hosting expenses you might charge/incur when calculating the nightly estimate.
At the moment, these estimates are only available for U.S. addresses and do not factor in the number of guests a listing might accommodate.
And while they may strive to provide an accurate estimate, it’s just an estimate and no guarantee of what you’d actually earn.
Actual earnings can depend on a variety of factors, such as availability, listing price, and demand in the area.
Lastly, and here’s the biggie, the ability to host your property may also depend on local laws.
In other words, it may not actually be permitted to list your property as an STR in your city.
There have been rumblings for a while now about a so-called “Airbnbust,” the premise being that too many first-time landlords purchased homes with the express purpose of making them STRs.
And now that there are so many of them, the hosts may encounter buyer’s remorse.
This could be due to unforeseen problems, a lack of experience being a host, complaints from neighbors, or simply that the earnings just aren’t there.
Throw in the fact that some hosts acquired multiple properties and these problems could be exponential.
Of course, some hosts might be raking in the dough, depending on how cheap they got in and how much demand their property has.
After all, many of these properties were purchased when 30-year fixed mortgage rates were 2-3%. And when home prices were half what they are now.
So even if competition rises, or they run into issues like unexpected refunds or cancellations on the platform, they may still do just fine.
But the real doomers out there think these STRs will be the first shoe to drop, setting off a panic and an eventual wider housing crash.
Critics on the other side say there aren’t enough of these properties to make a major impact, but in certain vacation areas there are larger concentrations.
Another issue is lack cities are beginning to ban STRs, with New York City being the latest to impose major restrictions.
This week, they launched new rules that only allow sub-30 day rentals if hosts register with the city.
And they “must commit to being physically present in the home for the duration of the rental, sharing living quarters with their guest.”
In other words, you can only rent out a room, like a traditional Bed and Breakfast, assuming it’s for less than a month.
And no more than two guests are allowed at a time, meaning larger families are effectively out of luck.
Obviously, sweeping changes like this could lead to a flood of sales if a long-term rental isn’t feasible (or simply as lucrative).
But it all remains to be seen. Many of those critical of Airbnb and other STR platforms such as VRBO, feel many of these properties could be going to families, instead of being rented out for a profit.
Especially first-time home buyers looking to lay down roots and start a family.
The STR gold rush may have also inadvertently sent home prices even further out of reach for the average person just looking to realize the American Dream.
Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com
Lately, there’s been a lot of talk about a lack of affordability, even a potential housing bubble.
And it comes as no surprise, given the massive shock of a near-tripling of mortgage rates over just a year and a half.
The 30-year fixed could be had in the low 3s, maybe even high 2s back in early 2022, and today is closer to 7%.
At the same time, home prices haven’t come down, despite a slowing rate of appreciation.
Together, this has brought the housing market to its knees and pushed many prospective buyers onto the sidelines. But those who sell are still reaping massive profits.
Remember those 1980s mortgage rates that were in the double-digits? Well, today’s mortgage rates are nowhere close.
However, due to sky-high home prices and elevated interest rates, home buying is the least affordable it has been since 1984.
That’s right, it hasn’t been this bad in about 40 years, which illustrates just how challenging this housing market has become.
Per Black Knight, it now requires 38.3% of the median household income to make a monthly mortgage payment on an average-priced home.
Using Freddie Mac’s 7.23% average for a conforming 30-year fixed mortgage as of August 24th, the monthly principal and interest payment climbed to $2,423.
And this assumes the buyer comes in with a 20% down payment, when in reality many borrowers can only muster 3-5%.
To the point of it being a bubble, it would take some heavy lifting to bring affordability back to its 25-year average.
We’re talking some combination of a ~27% decline in home prices, a 4%+ reduction in 30-year mortgage rates, or a whopping 60% increase in median household.
Which of those three do you think are likeliest to transpire? Probably none of them barring another massive housing crash.
But a combination of the first two is reasonable, whether it’s a 10% drop in home prices and a 2% drop in mortgage rates. Or some other combination.
It’s unclear if wages are going to see much improvement from here on out, certainly nowhere close to 60%.
For perspective, the 30-year fixed averaged about 13.2% the last time housing affordability was this bad.
This tells you home price growth has far outpaced wage growth, essentially demanding low interest rates bridge the gap.
Despite this, home sellers are racking up massive gains, thanks to double-digit home price appreciation over the past several years.
Redfin reported today that 97% of home sellers sold for a profit during the three months ending July 31st.
And the typical property that sold went for a whopping 78.4% more than the seller paid, or $203,232.
While there is a severe lack of affordability in today’s housing market, there seems to be an even bigger shortage of homes to purchase.
As such, home prices remain on the up and up, allowing the few sellers out there to take in a tidy profit.
The majority of sellers purchased their homes well before property values skyrocketed, making it pretty easy to snag a six-figure gain.
San Jose leads the nation in median capital gain at a staggering $755,000. It’s also 108.6% higher than what the seller paid.
San Francisco isn’t far behind at $625,500 and 70.5%, respectively, followed by Anaheim at $470,000 and 88.7%.
Even Detroit, which ranked last in terms of dollar gains of the 50 metros analyzed saw a median $80,500 capital gain.
If we consider percentage gains, Fort Lauderdale topped the list with a 122.2% cap gain, followed by San Jose and Miami.
While most sellers are making out like bandits, Redfin did note that some home sellers are parting with their properties at a loss.
This is especially true in San Francisco, which has struggled with falling property values and tech layoffs.
San Francisco’s median home sale price fell a record 13.3% year-over-year from April 2022 to April 2023, more than triple the nationwide decline of 4.2% at that time.
But as of July, prices were down just 4.3% year-over-year, somewhat closer to the national gain of 1.6%.
This might explain why 12% of home sellers in San Francisco sold for a loss during the three months ending July 31st.
Put another way, one of every eight homes that sold during this period went for less than what the seller paid.
And the typical seller sold for about $100,000 less than what they paid, tying New York for the largest median loss in dollars.
Nationwide, the typical homeowner who sold for a loss only sold for $35,538 less than what they paid.
Other major metros that had a high percentage of sellers taking a loss included Detroit (6.9%), Chicago (6.5%), New York (5.9%), and Cleveland (5.8%).
One Redfin Premier agent said some condos in the Bay Area are selling below 2018/2019 purchase prices because commuting into downtown San Francisco is no longer “a thing anymore.”
Meanwhile, an agent in Boise said some clients will need to sell at a $100,000 loss as they move back to Seattle because work-from-home (WFH) has ended and they bought the properties recently.
But the price point on such transactions is generally above $750,000, which probably isn’t your typical home in that part of Idaho.
And as you can see from the chart above, very few homes are selling for below what the seller originally paid.
So before we get excited about another short sale wave, as seen in the early 2000s, we may want to temper our expectations.
Of course, market conditions can change fast. For example, a year ago only 0.2% of Austin homes sold at a loss versus 3% in the same period this year.
Austin had the lowest share of home sales at a loss of the top 50 metros. Not so anymore.
Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com
As the fall elections near, a host of issues important to renters, homeowners, and the nation’s housing economy await attention. So far the focus has been on other national priorities, but a number of major problems confront the housing sector.
The housing industry was a major contributing factor in the recession, and even now it remains essential to the health of our economy. Here are some of the most pressing needs:
Some of these issues have lingered for years; some are new. All of them are taking their toll on the national standard of living.
Though the politicians who win elections may or may not be good for housing, there is new evidence that elections themselves are a good thing for home sales.
In an analysis of home sales dating back to 1990, the California Association of Realtors found that the sales growth is usually positive during an election year. In fact, C.A.R. found that growth in home sales at the end of an election year actually outperforms non-election years by 7.1 percentage points.
During the past five election cycles, sales in the final months of the year picked up, rising by 5.3 percent on average compared with -1.8 percent during non-election years. With the exception of December 2004, every single month of the final quarter saw robust growth in home sales during election years.
The pattern for California home prices is similar. C.A.R. also found little evidence of a negative effect on home prices during an election year. In fact, home price growth in California during the past five election cycles was slightly better than the long-run average of 5.6 percent.
Again, the effects were most pronounced during the final months of the year when demand—and therefore, upward pressure on prices—were boosted by roughly 5.6 percentage points following the elections.
Too soon to tell. Candidates need to address housing issues before we can make guesses about the future. On the bright side, though, election season may give parts of the country a small boost.
Source: totalmortgage.com
Baby boomers who’re planning on downsizing or leaving the real estate market altogether could send “shock waves” through the industry, according to a couple of new studies.
Fannie Mae’s Economic Strategic Research Group said in its report that homeownership demand from younger generations is “insufficient” to replace the void being created by departing older owners.
In a second study by the Stephen S. Fuller Institute at George Mason University, researchers say there is a significant number of older owners of large homes in the Washington D.C. area, and these could cause a “baby boomer sell-off” that could later be repeated in other parts of the U.S.
The concern stems from the fact that baby boomers, or those who were born between 1946 and 1964, own a significant portion of American homes – around two in five of the total residential properties in the country. Other generations own just 14 million homes between them.
As their twilight years approach, health and other issues will force baby boomers to move. Fannie Mae’s researchers say up to 11.9 million older owners will move out of homeownership between 2016 and 2026, while another 13.1 million to 14.6 million will depart between 2026 and 2036.
The fear is that this “generational unloading” of homes could have negative consequences for the home sales market, Fannie’s researchers say. Younger generations do not have the same desire or financial means to buy homes that baby boomers leave behind, they reason.
However, Dowell Myers, a professor at the University of Southern California, argued against this theory, telling the Washington Post it’s impossible to predict price impacts 10 years from now.
““We do not mean to be alarmists,” Myers said, though he said the issue will prompt more consideration for public and private policies that may cushion the potential fallout. He points to financing programs, for example, that could help urge more millennials to buy their first homes.
Meanwhile the National Association of Realtor’s chief economist Lawrence Yun also weighed in on the subject, saying he does not see any reason for despair. He said population growth in the U.S. and the impact of foreign buyers should ensure “no measurable declines” from baby boomers.
Source: realtybiznews.com
A lot of people including Jerome Powell who runs the Federal Reserve assume high interest rates will make housing cheaper. They believe that higher rates make houses less affordable and therefore, prices will decrease. There are many things wrong with this line of thinking, but they are missing an incredibly important concept. High rates may cause a temporary drop or leveling off in prices, but over the long term, they are certain to cause higher prices. This is because higher interest rates make it more expensive to build houses. As a result, fewer people and developers will be able to afford to build, which will lead to a decrease in inventory. We already have a massive shortage of houses in the United States which has caused big increases in prices. Reducing building will make that shortage even worse and make prices higher in the future.
Many people including Powell assume high rates make prices drop or level off. This is one of Powell’s quotes from 2022:
“Housing is significantly affected by these higher rates, which are really back where they were before the global financial crisis,” Powell said during a news conference. “The housing market was very overheated for a couple of years after the pandemic, as demand increased and rates were low. The market needs to get back into a balance between supply and demand.”
When he said this, rates were lower than they are now and mortgage rates are much higher than they were prior to the global financial crisis. People were also used to higher rates from the 80s and 90s back then whereas people are used to very low rates now.
However, historically raising interest rates has never lowered housing prices. There are even multiple studies that show high interest rates have never caused prices to drop. The 70s and 80s had some of the highest interest rates in our history and the 70s also had the highest appreciating real estate market in the last 100 years.
High rates make it more expensive to buy homes but they also reduce the inventory because people do not want to sell and lose the lower rate they currently have. High interest rates often reduce sales but not prices. High rates also make many things more expensive.
Here is a video I did two years ago talking about what raising rates would do to the real estate market:
Building houses is not easy in today’s government-regulated environment. Building codes and development requirements get stricter by the minute. The harder you make it to build or develop, the higher new construction costs are but that is another topic. Here is why higher rates cause new construction to be more expensive:
Not only do high interest rates increase the cost of new construction, but they also decrease the number of new builds. I mentioned before how prices usually do not decrease with high rates but sales often do. While prices may not decrease, or only decrease for a short amount of time, sales almost always decrease with higher rates. It is harder to sell houses because of the higher rates which makes builders wary to build more. It can take more than a year to build a house and if the builders have a concern about real estate demand, they will hold off and not risk building or building as much.
With higher rates, we also see higher construction costs as discussed earlier. If the price to build goes up, that will also make builders hesitant to start new builds. How can they be sure the market with higher rates will support the higher prices? Historically, the market has supported higher prices even with higher rates but that is still a big risk to take!
The graph below shows single-family new construction starts. We saw record low building for years after the housing crash and we were starting to get back to normal when interest rates spiked. You can see the huge drops in new builds in 2022 and while it has increased some, it is nowhere close to where it needs to be to catch up to demand.
The USA has a housing shortage as do most areas of the world. The governments keep making it harder to build and develop and then wonder why there is less building! If there is a shortage of housing, that means more people are fighting over fewer houses, and that increases prices. The less building there is, the higher prices will go as the population will keep increasing and moving around the country looking for new housing that is not available.
Powell may have thought higher rates would make housing more affordable, but I am not sure if he considered the long-term impact higher rates have. They will most certainly decrease new construction and raise the cost of construction which in the long-term will increase prices. The longer rates are high, the worse the problem will get. Ever heard the term kicking the can down the road? They may not want to lower rates now because a buying frenzy could ensue, but the longer they wait the worse they are making the problem.
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Overall, higher interest rates are likely to have a negative impact on the construction industry. This is because they will make it more expensive to borrow money, finance projects, and hire workers. As a result, we can and have seen a decrease in new construction which will make the inventory problem worse, which will most likely make housing even more expensive in the future.
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Source: investfourmore.com