Source: gao.gov

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Wells Fargo sent out an e-mail to its retail sales force today, notifying them that its Equity Direct guidelines will be experiencing a series of changes amid the ongoing mortgage crisis.

Effective end of business Friday, the maximum debt-to-income ratio for home equity lines of credit and home equity loans will be cut by five percent to 50 percent, an underwriting guideline change that actually matters because most of these loans are now full doc.

In addition, as of July 19, an 185 basis point economic adjuster will be required to qualify a borrower for these types of loans, instead of a typical qualification method based on the fully indexed mortgage rate.

So if a borrower is eligible for a loan at say five percent, an additional 185 basis points will be added on top to serve as the qualification rate, bumping the rate up to 6.85 percent fully amortized in that example.

Effective July 12, loans-to-value ratios (LTV) on these second mortgages will be reduced by five percent across the board, with new limits ranging between just 70-85 percent.

In “severely distressed” markets such as Orange and Los Angeles County, the max LTV for a home equity line or loan will be a mere 70 percent.

Wells Fargo Equity Direct is also eliminating bridge loan products.

Despite managing to avoid much of the mortgage mess thanks to their conservative lending philosophy, Wells was warned of rising delinquencies within their hefty home equity loan portfolio.

(photo: soylentgreen)

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Well, another year has passed, and unlike previous years, 2012 was a fairly decent year for the housing market.

After all, 30-year fixed mortgage rates chalked their “lowest annual average in at least 65 years,” per Freddie Mac.

Home prices also increased, which created a number of positives for the market. So what can we expect in 2013? I’ll take a crack at it.

1. Mortgage rates will move sideways

The direction of mortgage rates always seems to top the list, largely because tracking them is about as fun as gambling.

Currently, the 30-year fixed is averaging an amazingly low 3.35%. Back in January, it averaged 3.91%, a rate most thought wouldn’t go any lower.

We continued to be pleasantly “surprised” in 2012, but I don’t see that trend continuing in 2013. Sorry folks. This may be as good as it gets.

Look for mortgage rates to stay close to current levels, though there may be some ups and downs in the first half of the year as uncertainty looms.

In the latter half of 2013 expect mortgage rates to rise, though not by any material amount.

2. Home prices will rise slightly

While mortgage rates could tick higher as the year progresses, home prices should also extend their recent rise.

They already appeared to hit bottom in many metros throughout the United States, though some cities may experience further declines before things turn around.

Either way, don’t expect home prices to rise at their current clip. A panel of 107 economists polled by Zillow predicts home prices will rise just 3.1% in 2013.

That compares to a 4.6% rise this year, something that doesn’t appear to be sustainable moving forward.

However, that could change, and economists still see prices rising at a healthy three percent annual rate through 2017.

3. The mortgage interest deduction will be altered

House values aren’t necessarily safe at all price points. There’s a great chance some kind of change will come to the hotly contested mortgage interest deduction (MID).

It’s unclear what that change might be, but there’s a decent likelihood it could limit deductions to just $500,000 in loan amount.

If that’s the case, higher-priced homes could actually experience some depreciation next year.

But only time will tell on that one…

4. The Mortgage Debt Relief Act will be extended

There’s also a lot of fear surrounding the expiration of the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007, which has been extended each year since inception.

But with the fiscal cliff looming, there’s been more uncertainty about its future.

Still, with millions of short sales on standby, it’s unlikely the IRS rule that forgives homeowners for selling short won’t be extended.

If it’s not, the housing market will surely be rattled, with less harmful short sales quickly turning into a nasty flood of foreclosures.

That would throw everything out of whack, and result in home price declines.

5. Housing inventory will continue to be tight

Speaking of home prices, any price movement will likely be limited by a continued lack of inventory.

If you haven’t looked at available homes for sale lately, I’ll save you the time and effort. There is NOTHING out there, at least in desirable areas of the country.

Don’t expect a flurry of sellers to appear in 2013 either. Why sell on the way up if we’re just beginning to experience the start of a long recovery?

6. Refinances will slow, purchases will rise

While purchases might not go haywire in 2013, they should represent a larger share of the mortgage market as refinancing wanes.

Let’s face it; most homeowners have already taken advantage of the low interest rates available, and with rates predicted to hold steady or even rise, it would be silly to expect similar volume in 2013.

The MBA sees refinance volume falling from $1.2 trillion in 2012 to $785 billion in 2013, while purchase activity is slated to rise from $503 billion to $585 billion.

In other words, the total mortgage market will contract fairly significantly in 2013.

7. Mortgage layoffs will rise

As a result of lower loan origination volume forecasts, a decent number of those who were hired for the refinance boom will likely need to be transferred or laid off.

Still, there are a handful of mortgage companies that are expanding, so opportunities will present themselves in the industry.

Old names like Nationstar Mortgage and Impac Mortgage are growing rapidly, as are newcomers like PennyMac, which is essentially a reincarnation of Countrywide.

8. FHA will tighten lending standards

This isn’t so much of a prediction as it is a reality, though it’s not entirely clear what changes may come to the under-pressure FHA.

It already announced a few changes for FHA loans in 2013, including higher mortgage insurance premiums, higher down payment amounts for certain loans, and higher credit score requirements.

New FHA borrowers may also be subject to paying mortgage insurance for as long as the FHA insures the loans, which would increase the true cost of such mortgages considerably.

9. More previously foreclosed borrowers will take out mortgages

Now that some time has passed since the mortgage crisis, borrowers who were previously foreclosed on will be eligible to get back in the game.

After all, Fannie and Freddie only require a five-year waiting period, and the FHA only requires three years to have passed.

This means many of those who walked away or were simply foreclosed on will be able to purchase new homes, assuming they have steady employment and improved credit scores.

Hopefully more homeowners will get it right this time around…

10. No more mortgage assistance will be granted

Lastly, I don’t expect any new assistance to arrive for at-risk homeowners. It seems the government has used all the weapons in its arsenal, including the FHA streamline refinance, HAMP, HARP II, HAFA II, etc.

Not to mention the artificially low mortgage rates, thanks to aggressive Fed buying of mortgage securities.

There have been plenty of stirrings of a modification or refinance program for mortgages not backed by Fannie or Freddie (or the FHA), but such a plan keeps falling on deaf ears.

The latest proposal would be part of successful fiscal cliff negotiations.

It’s possible, but not probable, especially seeing that so much time has passed since things took a turn for the worse.

If borrowers have made it this far, throwing them a lifeline now seems a lot less likely.

So that’s that. Let’s all hope for the best in 2013. Happy New Year!

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

By Holden Lewis | NerdWallet

October mortgage rates forecast

Die-hard homebuyers, driven by life circumstances, will press forward in October. Everyone else will be inclined to wait for mortgage rates to fall, making homes more affordable. They’ll have to bide their time for months, not for weeks. In September, mortgage rates reached their highest levels since 2000, and they could inch upward in October.

Intrepid home shoppers might discover that more sellers are reducing their asking prices, but most would-be buyers will struggle to find suitable places to make offers on.

Rates rose after the Fed meeting

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee met Sept. 19 and 20. Its updated summary of economic projections included Fed members’ forecasts about the direction of short-term interest rates for the next three-plus years. Mortgage rates didn’t move much in the three weeks before the Fed meeting as the market waited for the summary of economic projections to drop.

The projections surprised the mortgage market. The Fed members signaled that they expect to keep short-term interest rates higher for longer than the mortgage market had expected. Mortgage rates played catch-up after the Fed meeting, with the 30-year fixed-rate home loan rising past 7.25% for the first time since late 2000.

Home affordability fades

Rising mortgage rates chip away at home affordability, which has been declining since early 2021. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has a home affordability index with data going back to the beginning of 2006, and July’s affordability (the most recent available) was the lowest in the index’s 17-year-plus history. And mortgage rates have gone up since July, making a home even harder to afford.

Mortgage rates have gone up five months in a row, making mortgage payments higher for a given loan amount. The impact on affordability has motivated almost 40% of home sellers to reduce their initial asking prices, according to Mike Simonsen, president of real estate analytics firm Altos Research, in a weekly commentary posted to YouTube. In spring, when mortgage rates were lower, about 30% of the homes on the market had taken a price cut.

Homebuyers might rejoice at the news that more sellers are reducing their asking prices. But the lack of properties to choose from remains a drag. According to the National Association of Realtors, 1.1 million homes were for sale at the end of August, the latest available data. In August 2019, a closer-to-normal, pre-pandemic market, 1.83 million homes were for sale.

What other forecasters predict

Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association disagree in their mortgage rate forecasts for the last three months of the year. Fannie Mae predicts a slight increase at year end, while the MBA expects a sharp decline foreshadowing a recession in the first half of 2024. Both organizations published their forecasts before the Sept. 19-20 Fed meeting that hinted at a sustained level of higher interest rates.

What happened to mortgage rates in September

At the end of August, I predicted that mortgage rates might rise in September because of uncertainty about what the Federal Reserve will do.

Indeed, mortgage rates rose after the Sept. 20 Fed announcement. Freddie Mac reported that the average rate on a 30-year mortgage climbed to 7.31% in the week of Sept. 28, the highest since the week of Dec. 15, 2000.

More From NerdWallet

Holden Lewis writes for NerdWallet. Email: [email protected]. Twitter: @HoldenL.

Source: syracuse.com