presidents

Apache is functioning normally

POS, TPO, Automation, DPA Tools; HECM, FHA, USDA News; Housing Starts and Permits

<meta name="smartbanner:author" content="We now have a native iPhone
and Android app.
Download the NEW APP”>


This website requires Javascrip to run properly.

POS, TPO, Automation, DPA Tools; HECM, FHA, USDA News; Housing Starts and Permits

By:
Rob Chrisman

5 Hours, 39 Min ago

One never knows what one will learn at a mortgage event, like yesterday learning from Lender Toolkit’s Alex K. that Collinsville, Illinois has the largest catsup bottle in the world. (The Collinsville area produces 60 percent of the world’s horseradish root, but I’ll save that tale for another time.) Later today I’ll be leaving Las Vegas, flying from Las Vegas north to Reno while President Joe Biden flies south from Reno to Las Vegas. (I imagine the chow on Air Force One beats whatever Southwest will serve up.) Nevada or nationwide, politics are certainly intertwined with housing, and vice versa. There’s the “Lock-in Effect” produced by government-induced rates. ICE reported that first-time homebuyers made up 55 percent of agency purchase mortgages in 2023, the highest for many years. Meanwhile, heard in the hallways: increasing the pool of qualified first-time home buyers without a corresponding increase in homes they’d buy is pointless… it just jacks up the starter home prices.” From someone else: “Affordable housing initiatives are not really moving the needle. Instead of eligibility at 80 percent of the AMI (area median income), why don’t they make it 50 percent?” (Found here, this week’s podcast is sponsored by Visio Lending. Visio is the nation’s premier lender for buy and hold investors with over 2.5 billion closed loans for single-family rental properties, including vacation rentals. Today’s has an interview with Experian’s Joy Mina on the income and employment verification landscape and the Experian Verify solution.)

Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software

LoanCare®, a top U.S. mortgage subservicer, has made it easier than ever for homeowners to manage their mortgages with a newly launched, proprietary mobile app: My LoanCare Go. Offering expanded private label branding options, account-based marketing, and tailored communications, My LoanCare Go helps clients enhance their homeowners’ mortgage experience to build lasting relationships. The app is part of LoanCare’s award-winning consumer digital platform, and is available in both English and Spanish for personalized support. Reach out to learn more today!

Horse racing fans know the Kentucky Derby always takes place the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs in Louisville. While that main event (Derby 150!) is still weeks away, Down Payment Resource (DPR) hopes to see you at The Mortgage Collaborative’s The Mane Event next week in Louisville where its co-sponsoring a Derby-themed opening reception on March 24 and will demonstrate the benefits of down payment assistance for lenders during a partner showcase. Grab your mint julep, jodhpurs, and a festive hat for this always fun “family” affair, and schedule a meeting with the DPR team.

Make your general ledger profitable and run your business more efficiently with Loan Vision and LV-PAM. Instead of “staying alive until ‘25”, with Loan Vision, a software built by the mortgage industry for the mortgage industry, you can “produce more in 24!” Customers on Loan Vision see improvements of 30 percent+ decrease in days to close the books, 20 percent+ reduction in accounting headcount, complete LOS to G/L automation, and improved reporting and visibility. Interested in learning how Loan Vision can help you run a more efficient and profitable company? Contact Carl Wooloff to schedule a call today.

“As spring blooms around us, American Financial Resources, LLC (AFR) is thrilled to announce fresh pricing enhancements that will elevate your experience with us! Our world class capital markets team has been hard at work, crafting innovative strategies to bring you pricing enhancements that will have your originators buzzing. With these changes, we’re paving the way for smoother transactions and more competitive offerings, ensuring that you receive the best possible pricing options tailored to your needs. Visit AFR’s Quick Pricer tool to witness the impact now. The new AFR provides TPOs with top-notch service and exceptional value every step of the way. So, as you revel in the beauty of this vibrant season, take a moment to celebrate the exciting improvements we’re bringing to the table. Here’s to a season filled with growth, prosperity, and flourishing opportunities! Contact us at [email protected], 1-800- 375-6071, visit www.afrwholesale.com or partner with AFR today!”

Mortgage Technology Offerings

There’s no such thing as a “one-size-fits-all” technology solution. Every financial institution is different. And modern banks, credit unions, lenders, and insurance brokers need options that make sense for their businesses, their goals, and their customers or members. The Total Expert Partner Ecosystem is a curated collection of industry-leading partners, thought leaders, and technology providers designed to help you address market challenges, drive growth, and create customers and members for life. Leverage 70+ integrations, strategic relationships with Salesforce and AWS, and a rich library of shared industry knowledge and best practices to develop the strategies that support your business goals and build the tech stack you need to put it in motion. Learn more!

Fully Customize Point-of-Sale Workflows with Maxwell’s New Blueprint Builder. Maxwell is thrilled to introduce an industry-first: the Blueprint Builder, a feature in Maxwell Point of Sale that allows lenders to drive a differentiated mortgage experience, helping them to stand out from the competition. With the Blueprint Builder, mortgage lenders can connect to over 60 third-party integrations to create a tailored workflow suited for their unique needs. Plus, lenders can adapt their digital experiences to the operations processes that work best across their products and channels, without the cost of hiring developers. To learn more about the Blueprint Builder, click here or schedule a call with the Maxwell team.

FHA, VA, Ginnie, USDA, and HECM News

Ginnie Mae’s February issuance included $30 billion of Ginnie Mae II MBS and nearly $894 million of Ginnie Mae I MBS, including nearly $816 million in loans for multifamily housing.

For the 2024 calendar year to date, Ginnie Mae has supported the pooling and securitization of more than 91,000 first-time homebuyer loans!

In the Ginnie Mae All Participants Memorandum (APM) 24-02, Ginnie Mae announced the implementation of new Cybersecurity Incident reporting requirements. These requirements are part of Ginnie Mae’s continued commitment to the security and integrity of all operational systems and critical technology infrastructure related to the issuance and servicing of Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Effective immediately, Issuers must notify Ginnie Mae of a cyber security incident within 48 hours of detection.

Yes, Ginnie Mae established cybersecurity reporting requirements for program participants on Monday. Effective immediately, Ginnie issuers must notify the agency of any cybersecurity incident within 48 hours after the issue is detected. “Once the notification is received, representatives from Ginnie Mae will contact the designated point of contact to obtain additional information and establish the level of engagement needed depending on the scope and nature of the incident.”

USDA Rural Development SFHD Program posted, effective March 8th, the Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 area loan limits (based on the guidance in Handbook-1-3550, Chapter 5, Paragraph 5.6 A) are available at https://www.rd.usda.gov/files/RD-SFHAreaLoanLimitMap.pdf.

On March 4th, USDA Rural Development SFHD Program posted Advance Notice: Revisions to HB-1-3555, Chapter 15. Copies of the upcoming revisions are available for review on the Loan Origination page of the USDA LINC Training and Resource Library, under the sub-heading “New”.

USDA Rural Development Single-Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program (SFHGLP) announced a reference sheet for obtaining a payoff and/or release of lien for a USDA Guaranteed Loan Mortgage Recovery Advance (MRA). This reference sheet includes a centralized email address for MRA inquiries and instructions on obtaining a payoff and/or a release of lien for an MRA.

In HECM news, with the Plaza Home Mortgage® Reverse Mortgage, borrowers can enjoy a multitude of benefits, including: No mortgage payment required. No Pre-Pay: Make payments as desired. Non-Recourse Loan: never owe more than the home’s value. Borrowers will maintain title to the home. Borrower’s estate retains all equity. No equity sharing: homeowners keep all future appreciation. Funds are tax free, but always consult your tax advisor. No limitations as to how the money can be used. Younger spouses (under 62) are protected. Closing costs are typically financed in the loan.

Capital Markets

A week that will be rife with central bank policy announcements (see below for some international decisions today) began with a slow retreat in the bond markets and traders paring back their expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates by June. Expectedly, this week will be dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision tomorrow where no change in the fed funds rate (range of 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent) is expected. But we will get a fresh set of economic forecasts along with a new dot plot. The first Fed rate cut is now forecast to come in mid-summer, and fed funds futures are now roughly in-line with the December dot plot, which forecasts three rate cuts this year. Thank goodness. As recently as the end of January, investors were counting on six cuts in 2024.

The Fed has made it clear that policy is restrained and that the Fed presidents don’t want to become too restrictive, but there is a risk that the Fed will sound too hawkish during this meeting which could push bond yields higher. While inflation sits above the Fed’s 2 percent target, it has been trending positively. However, mortgage rates have remained high, currently above 7 percent. With the unemployment rate rising and average hourly earnings growth decelerating, the Fed still believes inflation is likely to cool further in coming months.

Remember that aside from the FOMC, this week is packed with lots of mortgage-related economic data, including the NAHB housing market index yesterday (homebuilder sentiment jumped to an eight-month high in March, fueled by limited resale inventory and lower mortgage rates. A measure of expected sales in the next six months rose to the highest since June), building permits and housing starts today, and existing home sales on Friday.

Overnight and ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections, markets will digest the latest monetary policy decisions from the BoJ (it raised rates!) and the Royal Bank of Australia (it’s done hiking rates). Today’s domestic economic calendar is under way with February housing starts and building permits (+10.7 percent, 1.521 million annualized; +1.9 percent, 1.518 million respectively). Expectations were for 1.450 million starts and 1.500 million permits versus 1.331 million starts and 1.489 million permits previously in January. Next up brings Redbook same store sales for the week ending March 16. The U.S. Treasury then announces the auction sizes for short-duration bills before auctioning $75 billion 42-day CMBs, $46 billion 1-year bills, and $13 billion reopened 20-year bonds. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices slightly improved from Monday evening, the 10-year yielding 4.32 after closing yesterday at 4.34 percent, and the 2-year at 4.71.

Jobs

Weichert Financial Services, a leading nationwide Real Estate Affiliated Mortgage Company, is seeking to bring on a VP of Mortgage Servicing. The candidate would oversee the subserving relationship with Dovenmuehle and the technical day to day of the firm’s $2+ Billion servicing portfolio, thus a prior working relationship with DMI and their internal systems would be viewed as a plus. Both Hybrid and Remote candidates for the position would be considered, with headquarters being in New Jersey. If you’re a seasoned mortgage professional with a passion for taking a long standing, well capitalized Mortgage company established in 1980 to the next level, and you’re looking for a great work/life balance, we want to hear from you. Competitive compensation including Health, Dental, 401K, and PTO. Please contact Tim McLaughlin for more details.

While today marks the arrival of Spring, Spring EQ has proudly served as the industry pioneer in home equity solutions for nearly 8 years! Whether you’re a correspondent seller looking for a new partner, or a wholesale broker in search of an expansive suite of home equity products, Spring EQ can help. The need for home equity solutions is surging among borrowers, so make sure your business is prepared to meet this demand by partnering with the experts in home equity at Spring EQ. Interested in a correspondent partnership? Click here. Interested in a wholesale partnership? Click here. Looking for new opportunities in the mortgage industry? Explore Spring EQ job postings and come join a growing team of fun and experienced mortgage professionals! At Spring EQ our primary focus is second mortgages. So, think of us first for all your seconds.

PrimeLending’s One More Sales Coaching Program is transforming LO careers! LOs are discovering their best selves thanks to our exclusive peer-to-peer coaching program. The One More Sales Coaching Program is designed by PrimeLending’s top producers who’ve proven they know what it takes to excel in today’s market. LOs connect, collaborate, and learn from each other in a dynamic small group environment. Graduates walk away having mastered high-impact skills and habits they need to drive better results, such as personal branding, networking, and leveraging technology. The best part? It’s completely free! We’re investing in our LOs and empowering them to take their careers to the next level. Contact Nic Hartke today and join our winning team!

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced that Madisyn Rhone joined the association today as VP of Legislative Affairs responsible for advocating on behalf of MBA’s legislative and policy priorities on Capitol Hill, with a primary focus on Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for Rob Chrisman’s Commentary.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Apache is functioning normally

Weekly housing inventory data

Mortgage rates are still above 7% and haven’t been able to break below 6.50% for some time now. With mortgage rates higher, will this stop inventory from growing year over year? Some would say yes, on a year-over-year basis, of course.

Inventory is very seasonal, and we are about to start our seasonal increase in inventory. But even before that seasonal boost, we are showing year over year growth in inventory despite higher rates. Most home sellers are buyers of homes, so the action we are seeing this year is a healthy step in the right direction to get more balance in the housing market. 

Here is a look at inventory last week:

  • Weekly inventory change (Feb. 23-March 1): Inventory rose from 497,608 to 498,339
  • The same week the previous year (Feb. 24-March): Inventory fell from 430,395 to 419,419 
  • The recent inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
  • The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
  • For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 958,304

New listings data

New listings data is growing yearly, but it’s still a bit too low for my liking in 2024; I had hoped for more by this point. Now that we are entering the spring selling season when active inventory typically grows, we should get a boost over the next few months on the new listings data to match the spring season in previous years — and certainly above 2023 levels. 

Weekly new listing data for the last week over several previous years:

  • 2024: 52,189
  • 2023: 48,156
  • 2022: 49,019

As we head into the seasonal inventory increase, we will watch how higher rates impact inventory data. Last year, I was looking for inventory to grow between 11,000 and 17,000 per week if mortgage rates exceeded 7.25%. I will still look for inventory to grow at this level this year with higher rates. Also, if mortgage rates head lower again, then we need to track how this impacts the new listings and inventory as well. I have a simple inventory growth model: as mortgage rates head higher, this can lead to weakness in demand, which means it takes longer to sell a home and inventory can grow. 

Price-cut percentage

Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity, and this data line is very seasonal. When mortgage rates move higher and demand gets hit, the price-cut percentage can grow. When rates fall, they can head lower than an average year.

Inventory is higher than last year and we might have found the bottom already in inventory, so as the year moves on, the price cut percentage data should be rising. We will keep an eye out on this to see if any actual aggressive trends happen either way.

Here is the price cut percentage for the last week over the past several years

  • 2024: 30.5%
  • 2023: 31%
  • 2022: 17.2 %

Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield

The 10-year yield is the key for housing in 2024. In my 2024 forecast, I put the 10-year yield range between 3.21%-4.25%, with a critical line in the sand at 3.37%. If the economic data stays firm, we shouldn’t break below 3.21%, but if the labor data gets weaker, that line in the sand will be tested. This means mortgage rates should stay between 5.75%-7.25% with a baseline assumption that the spreads will be bad for most of the year. The 10-year yield has traded above 4.25%, but mortgage rates never got to 7.25%, so the spreads have acted better than I thought they would. 

We dodged a bullet last week as the PCE inflation data was muted. Headline PCE inflation for 12 months is running at 2.4%. We were very close to breaking over the critical line in the sand I have been talking about at 4.34%, but it didn’t break and we ended the week at 4.18%. We had some softer economic data come out on Friday and commentary from Fed presidents, so the 10-year yield was having a Friday block party, as you can see below.

As we have discussed, the 3.80% level for the 10-year yield is crucial, and the 4.34% level is critical. We haven’t broken either yet. We don’t want to break over 4.34% because we would see some more market drama and mortgage rates could head much higher. With the negative purchase application data we have had recently, the last thing we want is for the 10-year yield to get above 4.34%, which would mean dealing with mortgage rates between 7.25%-8% in a marketplace that is already slowing down with higher rates.

Mortgage rates didn’t move much last week and we haven’t hit my peak mortgage rate call of 7.25% yet with bond yields this high. We have jobs Friday coming up this week, so that will be interesting. The 10-year yield and mortgage rates have been wild since March 2022.

Purchase application data

Since mortgage rates have been rising toward 7% and above, the purchase application data has been trending negative on a weekly basis this year. We have had five weeks of negative data, which broke our positive streak of eight weeks when rates were falling. While this marketplace isn’t the crashing home sales marketplace of 2022, it’s not growing, so we will be hovering around this 4 million mark for a while until we see lower rates.

Since November 2023, we have had eight positive and five negative purchase application prints after making holiday adjustments. Year to date, we have had two positive prints versus five negative prints. This is a carbon copy of what happened in 2023 when rates went higher. However, we worked from a lower bar in home sales until 2024. So, don’t expect a massive existing home sales print in the next NAR existing home sales report like we did last year.

Week ahead: Buckle up for jobs week!

Here comes the jobs report with the 10-year yield still close enough to the critical technical level, making this week very interesting. This week we will get job openings, ADP, jobless claims and the BLS jobs Friday report. Since I am a labor-over-inflation guy, this week means a lot to my work for housing because I believe the housing market moves with the 10-year yield.

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

News that Capital One has struck a deal to buy Discover shook up the normally quiet Presidents Day banking holiday on Monday, teeing up the possibility of making Capital One the nation’s largest credit card issuer.

The Wall Street Journal reported the potential merger on Monday, followed by other outlets like Bloomberg and the New York Times. Capital One then released a statement confirming the planned acquisition.

Capital One Financial Corp., based in McLean, Virginia, is the nation’s ninth-largest bank by total assets, with 259 physical branch locations, 55 “Capital One Cafes” across the country and a major online banking operation. Discover Financial, based in Riverwoods, Illinois, is a mostly online bank with a single physical branch in Delaware. The all-stock deal is valued at $35.3 billion.

See the best Capital One cards

Capital One has cards for earning rewards and cards for building credit. Some even do both.

Is Discover on board?

Michael Rhodes, CEO and president of Discover, touted the deal in Capital One’s press release: “The transaction with Capital One brings together two strong brands with enhanced ability to accelerate growth and maximizes value for our shareholders, enabling them to participate in the tremendous upside of the combined company.”

What happens next?

Bank mergers must be approved by bank regulators and by shareholders of each company. If the deal goes through, Capital One estimates that it will close in late 2024 or early 2025.

What would it mean for customers?

During the approval process, little is expected to change as the companies continue to operate independently. Even if the deal is approved, though, current customers may see little effect.

“I think it’s not going to be a big change for credit card customers,” says David Robertson, editor and owner of the Nilson Report, a payment card industry trade journal. Discover cards, he says, are primarily cash-back cards, while Capital One offers a variety of rewards cards. A merger, Robinson says, “might allow for better rewards programs for both companies.”

While the Wall Street Journal reported that Capital One plans to keep the Discover name on at least some cards, details have not been confirmed by either company. Likewise, there is no detail yet on how banking customers will be affected.

Why merge?

Item no. 1: Discover’s payment network.

Transactions on Capital One cards are processed over the Visa and Mastercard payment networks. Discover, however, operates its own network, making it both a card issuer and a payment processor, similar to American Express. Robertson says acquiring a payment network and building direct relationships with more merchants is likely a driving factor in Capital One’s acquisition, which puts a 26.9% premium on Discover’s Feb. 16 closing stock price.

​​”From Capital One’s founding days, we set out to build a payments and banking company powered by modern technology,” Richard Fairbank, founder and CEO of Capital One, said in the news release. “Our acquisition of Discover is a singular opportunity to bring together two very successful companies with complementary capabilities and franchises, and to build a payments network that can compete with the largest payments networks and payments companies.”

In addition, Robertson notes, there is not a great deal of overlap between the two banks’ customer bases. “One would assume that everyone that has a Discover Card also has a Visa or MasterCard,” he says. “Capital One may get access to that spending.”

Capital One is the fourth largest credit card issuer in the United States by loan volume; Discover is ranked sixth, according to Nilson Report data. Combined, they would nudge ahead of Chase to become the largest card issuer.

Sheer economy of scale is another factor. “Should [the merger] occur, Capital One would be the largest credit card issuer” as measured by outstanding debt, says Robertson.

Who doesn’t want to be rewarded?

Create a NerdWallet account for personalized recommendations, and find the card that rewards you the most for your spending.

Source: nerdwallet.com

Apache is functioning normally

Ahem, Presidents’ Day is amongst us, and so are your favorite clothing, beauty, and lifestyle brands’ major sales. But perhaps the most popular category would be the Presidents’ Day furniture and decor sales—and I’ve gathered up all the best deals worth shopping for this year. I’m talking up to 75% off (!!) mattresses, couches, bed frames, chairs, rugs, wall decor, throw pillows, and more.

Because I love you (and I love shopping, because, ya know, it’s what I do for a living), I’ve put together a handy list of all the best Presidents’ Day furniture and decor sales worthy of your hard-earned coin. IDK about you, but this would be the perfect time to do that home revamp you’ve been planning for 2024!

The Best Presidents’ Day Furniture and Decor Sales 2024

  • Take up to 40% off all rugs and carpets from February 15 to February 25.
  • Save on hundreds of furniture, home decor, appliances, and more for a limited time.

Arhaus Aimee Dining Arm Chair

Now 33% Off

Credit: Arhaus

Arhaus Merritt Cabinet

Now 39% Off

Credit: Arhaus

Arhaus Malone Round Plinth End Table

Now 31% Off

Credit: Arhaus

Arhaus Astin Arc Lamp
Credit: Arhaus
  • Enjoy discounts on select items, including Arhaus favorites across several categories from now to February 19.
  • Take up to 30% off select items from now to February 19.
  • Take 20% off sitewide from now to February 19.

Brooklinen Down Comforter
Credit: Brooklinen

Brooklinen Luxe Hardcore Sheet Bundle
Credit: Brooklinen

Marlow Marlow Pillow
Credit: Brooklinen

Brooklinen Super-Plush Robe
Credit: Brooklinen
  • Take 20% off sitewide from February 13 to February 20.

Burrow Arch Nomad Sofa Sectional

Now 20% Off

Credit: Burrow

Burrow Pica Chair

Now 20% Off

Credit: Burrow

Burrow Carta Credenza

Now 22% Off

Credit: Burrow

Burrow Chorus Bed with Wood Headboard

Now 17% Off

Credit: Burrow
  • Take up to 75% off sitewide as well as 25% off seating from now to February 25.
  • Take $100 off orders of $1,500, $200 off $2,500, and $450 off $4,500 from now to February 25.
  • Take up to 70% off bedding, sheets, rugs, and home décor from February 15 to February 20.
  • Take 20% sitewide from now to February 19.
  • Take up to 20% Off Sactionals and StealthTech, 20% off Sacs, and 30% Off Sac Bundles from February 21 to February 25.
  • Take 20% off sitewide from February 16 to February 20.
  • Take up to 25% off sitewide from February 13 to February 19.

Rugs USA Stone Keyara Spill Proof Washable Area Rug
Credit: Rugs USA

Rugs USA Beige Native Collage Area Rug
Credit: Rugs USA

Beige Bettie Retro Checkered Shag Area Rug
Credit: Rugs USA

Rugs USA Light Pink Ava Vintage Persian Washable Area Rug
Credit: Rugs USA
  • Take an extra 20% off everything (excludes custom rugs, custom rug pads, and samples) with code USA for a limited time only.
  • Take 10% off sitewide and up to 60% off final sale from February 18 to February 22.
  • Take up to 40% off select items for a limited time only.
  • Take up to 30% off sitewide and free ground shipping on orders over $50 from February 16 to February 19.
Instagram to get some BTS of the editor life and chaotic NYC content. Also, feel free to hit her up if you ever wanna discuss the madness that is TikTok. 

Source: cosmopolitan.com

Apache is functioning normally

Hedging, Renovation, Home Equity, Accounting Products; U.S. Population Stats; Fannie Earnings of $3.9 Billion

<meta name="smartbanner:author" content="We now have a native iPhone
and Android app.
Download the NEW APP”>


This website requires Javascrip to run properly.

Hedging, Renovation, Home Equity, Accounting Products; U.S. Population Stats; Fannie Earnings of $3.9 Billion

By:
Rob Chrisman

Thu, Feb 15 2024, 11:01 AM

In my travels I’ve eaten some unusual foods, although maybe not this unusual, but here in Boise the talk is about how unusual it is that applications and locks have suddenly shot up in the last several business days. It is nice to hear and see the hustle and perseverance from originators pay off some. Taking a look at the big picture, per the U.S. Census Bureau, nearly 40 percent of all homeowners own their homes free and clear, or 33.4 million mortgage-free, single-family homes and condos. And some percentage of those have credit card debt that is 25 or 30 percent, so a tax-deductible loan at 7 percent can be pretty attractive. Sure enough, refis are hitting the numbers: as reported last month, 89 percent of people with mortgages have an interest rate below 6 percent, down from a record 93 percent in 2022. (Today’s Commentary podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Lender Toolkit and its AI-powered AI Underwriter and Prism borrower income automation tools. By providing lightning-fast underwriting decisions, your market reputation with borrowers and Realtors will soar, which means more repeat and referral business. Hear an interview with Stavvy’s Angel Hernandez on industry and regulatory affairs, and the state of loss mitigation solutions.)

Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software

Ready to sprint? After successfully automating the front end of the mortgage loan process, is the industry ready to conquer what remains? To those with the vision of responsible innovation, the answer is ‘yes.’ Much of the mortgage lifecycle is still reliant on outmoded, labor-intensive processes and fragmented legacy technology. To address this disconnect, FHFA convened industry participants to explore data digitization as the vehicle for change. Clarifire’s current blog, “Responsible Innovation – A Future Vision for the Mortgage Industry,” looks at the five correlating challenges that continue to impact lenders, vendors, and regulators. It’s time to implement responsible automation with CLARIFIRE® promoting borrower engagement, 24/7 self-serve access, dynamic automated rapid results, operational efficiencies, and meaningful cost savings. Meet us at MBA’s Servicing Solutions Conference & Expo and learn how to deliver cohesive innovation with a better approach, better results, and better software. CLARIFIRE®, truly BRIGHTER AUTOMATION®.

“When it comes to delivering a seamless mortgage experience, 2024 borrowers are looking for a swift, accurate and modern approach. How can you deliver on all three? That’s where automation comes in. In this new article from ICE Mortgage Technology®, we uncover common automation misconceptions and share the steps lenders can take to transform their mortgage processes and meet today’s borrowers where they are. Read the full article to learn how leveraging ICE Data and Document Automation™ in Encompass® can help lenders reduce manual efforts so they can reignite, reinvent, and refocus their business strategy to ensure its future-proof.”

Make your general ledger profitable and run your business more efficiently with Loan Vision and LV-PAM. Instead of “staying alive until ‘25”, with Loan Vision, a software built by the mortgage industry for the mortgage industry, you can “produce more in 24!” Customers on Loan Vision see improvements of 30 percent+ decrease in days to close the books, 20 percent+ reduction in accounting headcount, complete LOS to G/L automation, and improved reporting and visibility. Interested in learning how Loan Vision can help you run a more efficient and profitable company? Contact Carl Wooloff to schedule a call today.

Managing incoming referrals from a branch network is a pain… but not with LiteSpeed by LenderLogix! With LiteSpeed, each branch can have its own online loan application that seamlessly integrates into Encompass® by ICE Mortgage Technology™. All the tracking you need to make sure you’re getting the most out of your branch network. See why banks and credit unions are making the switch to LenderLogix.

TPO Products for Brokers and Correspondents

“Button Finance is excited to launch our new home equity loan offerings tailored for investor properties and those qualifying via bank statements, exclusively for our broker partners. We’re extending loans up to $500k with competitive CLTVs, up to 80 CLTV for investor properties and 85 CLTV for bank statement loans. Our flexible terms accommodate up to 50 percent DTI and extend up to 30 years, ensuring a fit for a wide range of financial situations. Importantly, these additions come without any changes to our existing programs, which continue to offer rates as low as 8 percent, with correspondents earning up to 7.85 percent of the loan balance. Please email us for more information or to sign up!”

Renovation lending fuels loan production, boosts profits, and fortifies housing inventory in competitive markets. Explore the rising demand for renovation loans with Planet Home Lending’s Guide to Renovation lending, tailored for correspondent lenders. From seizing opportunities to fostering robust partnerships, it offers a step-by-step roadmap. Request your exclusive copy today.

AmeriHome Mortgage, the 2nd largest correspondent investor in the country, is officially the #4 Overall Lender according to Inside Mortgage Finance! Backed by the strength of Western Alliance Bank, AmeriHome wants to speak to you about how a relationship with it will help you navigate and succeed in this ever-changing industry. By combining Western Alliance Bank’s Warehouse Lending and MSR and Note Financing tools, as well as its Treasury Management expertise, with AmeriHome’s industry leading loan purchase platform, this is a “must-have” relationship for mortgage bankers of all shapes and sizes. AmeriHome recently enhanced key overlays, including removal of their max cash out overlay on VA loans and their Best Efforts Relock policy… Connect with your sales rep for details. Don’t miss AmeriHome in Houston for TMBA Southern Secondary later this month as well as MCT Exchange in March! Check Upcoming Events for details, find your sales rep here, or send them an email to learn more about partnering with AmeriHome!

“Citibank N.A. remains committed to sustainable growth and responsible expansion of the Correspondent Lending channel. One of the elements we’re focused on is building new and existing relationships with Non-Delegated, Best-Efforts lenders who have a passion for supporting consumers in underserved markets. Following a significant investment in our Non-Delegated platform featuring enhanced capabilities and increased capacity, Citi Correspondent Lending is working to create opportunities for smaller mortgage bankers wanting to make a sustainable impact in their local communities. We offer a robust set of Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) pricing incentives (available at point of sale through Optimal Blue and ICE’s EPPS pricing engines) as well as a growing suite of community lending-focused programs. To learn more about these and all that Citi Correspondent Lending has in flight, contact us or complete and return our Prospective Correspondent Questionnaire.”

Demographics for Originators

The U.S. Census Bureau projected that the U.S. population has increased 1,759,535 (0.53 percent) from Jan. 1, 2023, and 4,443,957 (1.34 percent) from Census Day (April 1) 2020. In January 2024, the United States is expected to experience one birth every 9.0 seconds and one death every 9.5 seconds. Meanwhile, net international migration is expected to add one person to the U.S. population every 28.3 seconds. The combination of births, deaths and net international migration increases the U.S. population by one person every 24.2 seconds. The projected world population on Jan. 1, 2024, was 8,019,876,189, an increase of 75,162,541 (0.95 percent) from New Year’s Day 2023. During January 2024, 4.3 births and 2.0 deaths are expected worldwide every second.

The 2024 NextGen Homebuyer Report, a research project developed in partnership with National MI to provide practical insights into the behavior and preferences of the next generation of homebuyers, is out. “In partnership with National MI, Kristin Messerli has surveyed over 5,000 NextGen homebuyers over the past 4 years to bring fresh insights to the mortgage industry.

The 2024 report analyzes data from a January survey of 1,000 Gen Z and Millennial respondents to gain a deeper understanding of NextGen homebuyers’ challenges, motivations, and behaviors. Common themes of this report include skepticism about the market, lack of confidence in experts, and a desire for education.”

Per the survey, over half of Gen Z and Millennials are not confident homeownership will be accessible to the next generation. 51 percent of them are not confident in their knowledge of homebuying, and 54 do not trust lenders to help them make smart decisions about their future. So, if you’re a lender, you know where to put some resources!

Conventional Conforming Updates

Yesterday Freddie Mac announced its earnings, and today it was Fannie Mae’s turn. Fannie saw $17.4 billion in annual net income for 2023 and $3.9 billion in fourth quarter 2023 net income, with net worth reaching $77.7 billion as of December 31. Net income increased $4.5 billion in 2023 compared with 2022, primarily driven by a $7.9 billion shift to a benefit for credit losses in 2023 from provision for credit losses in 2022.

Freddie Mac announced that Eric Wilson and Jonathan Kunkle have been named vice presidents of Seller Engagement for the Single-Family Division. In their roles, Eric will oversee Eastern Regions of the country and Jonathan will lead Western Regions. Both will establish strategic direction and provide the primary source of market intelligence and seller business perspective within Freddie Mac for their regions.

Fannie Mae February Selling Guide SEL-2024-01 includes multiple topics such as expanding the value acceptance + property data offering to include condos, clarifies the qualifying rate for 7- and 10-year ARMS, allows cash-out refinances for manufactured homes with terms up to 30 years, updates eligible types of nontraditional credit references, clarifies policies for the use of business income, clarifies property insurance coverage requirements, updates mortgage origination definitions, and includes other miscellaneous updates.

Effective March 28, the process for submitting contribution credits with capitalized modification expenses with Fannie Mae will change. The new line-item Contribution to Cap Advances must be used for this type of contribution. In the interim, servicers may utilize the Escrow Balance line item. Fannie Mae’s Servicer Expense Reimbursement team offers fast and efficient reimbursement of expenses incurred while servicing Fannie Mae loans.

With AmeriHome Mortgage Announcement Number 20240204-CL, AmeriHome clarified that Texas Section 50(a)(6) loans are not eligible for temporary interest rate buydowns with Fannie Mae loan programs.

Capital Markets

Are you looking for tools to improve profitability and efficiency in your mortgage loan sale process? In a recent case study, Vellum Mortgage describes how they were able to save $50,000 through AOTs, add three new investors, and save twelve hours a month with MCT. “I always send my bid tapes out to my approved and unapproved investors in MCT Marketplace,” said Ashley Puckett, Senior Capital Markets Analyst at Vellum Mortgage. “It’s great to see those shadow bids come in and then decide if we want to sign up with a certain investor because their executions have been strong lately.” Vellum Mortgage was able to leverage MCT’s software and expertise to achieve their goals after switching from their previous hedge advisor. Read the full case study or join MCT’s newsletter for information on how MCT is helping clients achieve their goals.

Investors hoping for early and aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2024 sit disappointed, with the hotter than expected reading for both the headline and core inflation numbers forcing those investors to once again reconcile with a higher for longer interest rate environment.

Mortgage rates are on the rise, and now sit at a two-month high after a CPI-inspired selloff for risk assets earlier this week. Blame investor (over)optimism or blame the Fed, but the true blame lies with sticky inflation. The core inflation rate has been steadily rising on a month-over-month basis since the summer. Pricing in Fed Fund futures now implies between three and four 25 basis point cuts for the year, beginning in June, a significant departure from the seven rate cuts that were priced in just a month ago. The risk now is that inflation continues to accelerate, sending bond prices lower.

Bonds rebounded somewhat yesterday from the sell-off triggered by Tuesday’s inflation data and reset in Fed rate cut expectations. It’s much needed after U.S. mortgage rates rose last week to a two-month high. You may be asking yourself what is giving the Fed pause before it is willing to cut rates? There are a few key points of uncertainty for policymakers: A hot economy, geopolitical risk, and financial decisions. Fed Governor Barr said yesterday that the Fed needs to see more data indicating inflation is approaching 2 percent before it begins easing, supporting Fed Chair Powell’s cautious approach. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said a few months of slightly higher prices would still be consistent with a path back to target. There was some assistance in bond pricing yesterday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ downward revision to December PPI to -0.2 percent from -0.1 percent.

Today’s economic calendar is jam-packed with data, including some of the “first-tier” variety. It is already under way with retail sales for January (-.8 percent, worse than expected, ex-auto -.6). Sales were expected to slip 0.1 percent month-over-month versus 0.6 percent previously in December. We’ve also received Empire manufacturing for February (-2.2 percent), import and export prices for January (), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing for February (5.2 percent, higher than expected), and weekly jobless claims (212k, down from 220k). Later today brings industrial production and capacity utilization for January, December business inventories, the NAHB Housing Market Index for February, various Treasury auctions headlined by 20-year bonds, 30-year TIPS, and reopened 2-year FRNs, and Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Two Fed speakers are scheduled, Governor Waller and Atlanta President Bostic. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices better by about .125 and the 10-year yielding 4.21 after closing yesterday at 4.27 percent. The 2-year is at 4.53.

Employment

Spring EQ’s Retail & TPO divisions continue to experience rapid growth as demand for home equity solutions accelerates. To meet this demand, Spring EQ is hiring licensed MLOs in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Ohio for its retail channel and remote Senior Account Executives for its Wholesale and Correspondent channels. Explore Spring EQ job postings and come join our growing team of fun and experienced mortgage professionals! At Spring EQ our primary focus is second mortgages. So, think of us first for all your seconds. Don’t wait, start the application process today!

In the Northwest and California, Banner Bank is searching for Mortgage Loan Officers looking to create lasting Realtor and builder relationships at a bank focused on the market today. Banner has opportunities for lenders looking for local decision making with FHA, VA, USDA, state bond and true Portfolio lending opportunities along with servicing retained Fannie and Freddie loans to assist in client retention. Additional highlighted products cover CRA lending with private label no payment down payment assistance to help assist all borrowers with the right opportunity. Banner is the right fit for an established team, or the individual looking to grow their business and take the next step in their career. Please send resumes to Aaron Miller.

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for Rob Chrisman’s Commentary.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Apache is functioning normally

Today’s mortgage rates

Average mortgage rates climbed appreciably yesterday, taking them to their highest level in a couple of months. Two different inflation reports were behind last week’s damage.

Mortgage rates might move a little lower next week. That is more of a hope than an expectation. And I’m basing it on nothing more than that little is scheduled for the next seven days, and markets might decide they went too far on Friday. Such delayed reactions happen quite often after sharp movements.

Markets are closed next Monday for the Presidents’ Day holiday. And this should mean mortgage rates won’t move that day. So, the usual daily edition of this report won’t appear.

Find and lock a low rate

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30-year fixed 7.31% 7.32% +0.06
Conventional 15-year fixed 6.61% 6.64% +0.02
Conventional 20-year fixed 7.16% 7.19% +0.09
Conventional 10-year fixed 6.49% 6.52% +0.06
30-year fixed FHA 6.52% 7.2% +0.07
30-year fixed VA 6.62% 6.73% -0.03
5/1 ARM Conventional 6.15% 7.33% Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a low rate

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

I think there is a strong possibility that this week’s poor inflation reports have delayed my hoped-for downward trend in mortgage rates. And we now may have to wait for it to fully establish itself until May, June or even later.

This is beyond disappointing and means I’ve changed my personal rate lock recommendations to:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.

What’s moving current mortgage rates

This week

Both this week’s consequential inflation reports showed prices rising more quickly than markets were expecting. And mortgage rates moved higher in response.

That was partly because the bond investors who largely determine mortgage rates hate inflation. But it’s also because markets know that higher prices are likely to delay the Federal Reserve’s first cut in general interest rates and may mean fewer subsequent cuts this year.

Mortgage rates probably won’t move lower in a sustained way until Wall Street is confident that the Fed is set to cut general interest rates imminently. And we may well now have to wait until the summer for that level of confidence.

Of course, I can’t guarantee that mortgage rates will fall at all this year. But I think improvements in the second half of this year are currently the most likely scenario for 2024.

Economic reports next week

We’ve had enough excitement recently and are due a dull week. And, sure enough, we’re about to get one.

The only day on which reports are likely to move mortgage rates is Thursday. And that’s just a couple of February purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) from S&P.

PMIs certainly can affect mortgage rates, though rarely appreciably. And I’ll be shocked if next week’s reports more than tweak them.

The only other reports next week are leading economic indicators on Tuesday, and initial weekly jobless claims and existing home sales, both on Thursday. Again, the market that determines mortgage rates typically shrugs these off.

The Fed next week

The Fed is scheduled to release the minutes of the last meeting of its rate-setting committee next Wednesday afternoon. We already know a lot of what was said from the news conference that was hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell immediately after the meeting. And much has changed since then, meaning the minutes have already been overtaken by events.

But investors always pore over these minutes in the hope of gleaning some new insights. And mortgage rates may move if they find anything actionable. I doubt they will, but let’s hope that anything they do uncover pushes those rates lower.

Seven senior Fed officials have speaking engagements next week. And their remarks have the potential to affect mortgage rates.

Whether their speeches are good or bad for those rates will depend on what they say. Ideally, we’d like most of them to talk up a May cut in general interest rates. But that may be wishful thinking.

Besides economic reports and Fed activity, our best hope for lower mortgage rates over the next seven days is a calming in market sentiment. I’m hoping investors will reflect on the current position and feel they overreacted to last week’s inflation reports. Such bounce downs are common after sharp rises but far from inevitable.

Economic reports next week

See above for details about the more important economic reports next week.

In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.

  • Monday — Markets closed for Presidents’ Day holiday
  • Tuesday — January leading economic indicators
  • Wednesday — Fed minutes
  • Thursday — February PMIs for the services and manufacturing sectors from S&P. Also January existing home sales. Plus initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb. 17
  • Friday — Nothing scheduled

We’re in for a quiet week for economic reports. But mortgage rates could still move on any day except Monday.

Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you

Mortgage rates forecast for next week

Mortgage rates might edge lower next week. I think the chances of that are better than further rises. But only slightly better. So, don’t bank on anything.

How your mortgage interest rate is determined

A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.

And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.

Your part

But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:

  1. Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
  2. Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
  3. Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
  4. Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
  5. Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?

Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.

Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:

  • Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
  • Interest — The price of borrowing
  • Taxes — Specifically property taxes
  • Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance

Our mortgage calculator can help with these.

Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.

But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!

Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Source: themortgagereports.com

Apache is functioning normally

Technology, Closing Cost Scenario, Non-QM, Streamlined UW Tools; Servicer Lawsuit; Bonds and Inflation

<meta name="smartbanner:author" content="We now have a native iPhone
and Android app.
Download the NEW APP”>


This website requires Javascrip to run properly.

Technology, Closing Cost Scenario, Non-QM, Streamlined UW Tools; Servicer Lawsuit; Bonds and Inflation

By:
Rob Chrisman

Mon, Feb 12 2024, 11:36 AM

Why should lenders and vendors care about servicing? (STRATMOR’s current blog is titled, “It’s 2024: Do You Know Where Your Servicing Is?”) Not only do servicing values fluctuate, which impacts the prices that borrowers see, but servicing is a huge touchpoint with consumers and therefore garners the attention of regulators like the CFPB, headlines, and the courts. The latest example is a California couple suing Specialized Loan Servicing, LLC for negligence that led to a “lost home and destroyed life.” Of course, anyone can sue anyone at any time, but the multi-count lawsuit against Specialized Loan Servicing, LLC alleges breach of contract, theft, and several other counts, accusing SLS of negligence as the mortgage servicer added a quarter of a million dollars to the couple’s mortgage, leading to their “financial and personal ruin.” (Today’s Commentary podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Lender Toolkit and its AI-powered AI Underwriter and Prism borrower income automation tools. By providing lightning-fast underwriting decisions, your market reputation with borrowers and Realtors will soar, which means more repeat and referral business. Hear an interview with Jeremy Potter and Marvin Chang on broader and more flexible tools for homeowners to navigate our fast-paced and modern economy.)

Lender and Broker Software, Products, and Services

What’s better than a free consultation from a mortgage tech expert? Getting the advice of six. That’s what’s in store if you join “Strategies to Master the Market Now with the Right Mortgage Technology,” next Wednesday, Feb. 21 at 2 pm ET. This free webinar, co-sponsored by Floify and Truv, Christy Soukhamneut, chief lending officer at UFCU; Raven Johnson, VP business systems at Legacy Mutual Mortgage; Craig Ungaro, COO AnnieMac Home Mortgage; features Jodi Hall, founder & CEO of DandaRoad, LLC; Richard Grieser, vice president of marketing at Truv; and Sofia Rossato, president & GM of Floify. Click here to register.

Shake it up + flashback to the 80s with Sagent at MBA Servicing! Be part of the most EPIC MBA Servicing party and shake it up with Sagent on Wed. 2/21 at 7PM ET at Jo Jo’s Shake Bar. Join the team and top industry players for some boozy milkshakes + throwback jams, where you’ll be dancing ‘All Night Long’… Don’t forget to pack your best 80s attire (think Member’s Only jackets, parachute pants) because this party is one you don’t want to miss. Click the link here reserve your spot and we’ll see you there!

“Tired of messy or late closings? LOs know that even if they provide the most amazing customer service, it won’t mean anything if there are delays in getting their borrower’s mortgage approved and closed. The biggest lenders are offering same-day approvals, and so can you. Lender Toolkit’s AI-powered AI Underwriter™ and Prism™ income automation help streamline underwriting so that you can get loans approved faster than ever. By providing almost-instantaneous underwriting decisions, your market reputation with borrowers and Realtors will soar, which means more repeat and referral business. Notes Mark Workens, CEO Mortgage 1: “My company’s ability to be profitable in any market condition is largely due to Lender Toolkit’s Maas™ Platform, including AI Underwriter and Prism.” So why get left behind? Schedule a demo here, or meet us in person for a live demo at EXP24 next month by booking here. We can’t wait to show you what’s possible with our high-tech solutions.”

New: Maxwell’s Q4 2023 Mortgage Lending Report Shows Signs of Market Recovery. Wondering what to expect from 2024’s market? Maxwell’s brand new Q4 2023 Lending Report shows powerful signs of market recovery. In a major reversal, loan volume in Q4 grew year-over-year for the first time since 2021. Plus, the report reveals areas where lenders are finding opportunity, such as through outside-the-box offerings like HELOCs. To gain exclusive data, charts, and advice on how to get ahead of the market reset, click here to download Maxwell’s Q4 2023 Mortgage Lending Report.

Get a Sweetheart Deal with Loan Stream’s February Specials on FHA/VA and Non-QM Price Improvements! Get 37.5 BPS Price Improvement on all FHA and VA, Low Balance, and High Balance >=680 FICO, excludes DPA and 25 BPS Price Improvement on FHA Streamlines/IRRRLS. Plus, a Non-QM Price improvement of 50 BPS on all Non-QM, not including Closed End Seconds and Select Programs. Valid for loans locked 2/1/2024 through 2/29/2024. Terms/Conditions apply see our site and talk with your Account Executive. Don’t miss this month’s webinar on Closed End Seconds and how to Prepare for the CalHFA Dream for All. Register now!

Lenders and borrowers deserve technology that improves the mortgage process, saves time and money, and is intuitive. As both a startup and a company with decades of technology experience, Dark Matter Technologies (DMT) has a unique vantage point for identifying how to improve value for customers, and how to work with an ecosystem of like-minded partners to bring many of those ideas to fruition. In its latest podcast episode, The Spotlight, we meet Chief Product Officer Stephanie Durflinger, the 15-year industry veteran now guiding DMT’s product development team. Stephanie formerly held key positions at both ICE Mortgage Technology and Ellie Mae and brings her unique perspective and discerning eye to guiding the future of Empower and other DMT products. The podcast is hosted by DMT Vice President of Marketing Wes Horbatuck. Listen to the interview now.

Picture this… it’s Saturday afternoon and your borrower finds out they were out-bid and have a small window to decide if they want to offer more on their dream home. You’re at your kid’s soccer game and they’re in panic mode… how much does the payment increase? How much more cash will I need? When can I get an updated pre-approval letter? Fortunately, it’s 2024 and lenders using QuickQual never have to worry about this. Borrowers AND Realtors AND Loan Officers can run accurate payment and closing cost scenarios from their phones and they can generate updated pre-approval letters within guardrails set by the loan officer. Crisis averted with QuickQual.

Technology and operations leaders who care about making sure their technology and operations are competitive for today’s market, as well as learning what’s possible when you push the limits, you don’t want to miss this live event! On February 15, at 1PM CT come join Jonathan Spinetto, COO and Co-Founder of NFTYDoor, Janelle Lindseth, Senior Product Manager of Docutech, and Richard Grieser, Vice President of Marketing of TRUV, as they unpack how Jonathan and his team launched the business with zero loan volume, and in just 2 years, NFTYDoor debuted its digital home equity loan platform, was acquired by Homebridge, and is now on track to reach 3,000 loans per month in 2024, making them a major player in the market. Their technology is built from the ground up and processes everything from credit, KYC, valuations, disclosures, closing (RON), and payments, and all in full regulatory compliance. This is a success story as Jonathan and his team pushed the limits and accepted the risk, but those lessons learned can be immediately applied by you. Come and see the future of lending technology.

Capital Markets

The link between interest rates, mortgage rates, and borrower behavior is always changing. Although the Federal Reserve is apparently “on hold” until its May meeting, it is still important to see and understand what will cause interest rates to move higher and lower over time. Mortgage rates have stayed close to where they started the year, despite swings in Treasury yields because of slowing inflation offset by stronger than expected readings on the job and the housing markets.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is keenly aware of inflation. No news was good news when it came to inflation revision data to close last week, with the Consumer Price Index revised downward slightly in December and the fourth quarter left unchanged at 3.3 percent. A year ago, revisions to the November and December 2022 reports showed higher core inflation than what was initially reported, sending bond yields higher as investors prepared for a “higher for longer” interest rate environment. Dallas Fed President Logan said that disinflation progress has been “tremendous,” but the central bank is in no rush to start lowering interest rates.

The CPI revisions likely give the Federal Reserve further breathing room while allaying any concerns traders might have had about progress on inflation. The revisions were also in sharp contrast to last year’s, in which CPI was revised significantly higher. It’s not at the “magic” 2 percent level, but there is progress. Easing inflation data, a resilient economy and a solid earnings season so far have sparked this year’s stock market rally, which has seen the three major averages tallying their fifth straight weekly gains, and this adds to consumer confidence.

The narrative of late has been a resilient U.S. economy, with low unemployment, inflation largely under control, and the Fed’s fabled soft landing very much in sight. Focus now shifts to January’s CPI tomorrow and if price pressures continue to recede, it may pave the way for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates sooner rather than later.

We also learned last week that January’s ISM Services Index rose to 53.4 from 50.5 in December. The expansion in the services sector of the economy exceeded economists’ expectations as consumers return to pre-pandemic spending behaviors. The prices paid subindex jumped from 56.7 to 64.0, a sign that inflationary pressures remain. This was the largest monthly percentage gain since August 2012.

Consumer spending remains strong and despite higher interest rates, expanded to a record $5.1 trillion in December, although the pace of consumer credit expansion declined from 7.6 percent in 2022 to 2.4 percent in 2023. Rising incomes due to a strong labor market are expected to support the pace of consumer spending as a meaningful slowdown in the job market has yet to materialize. Jobless claims fell to 218,000 during the week ending February 3 and continuing claims declined to 1.87 million, suggesting that those who do find themselves in the job market do not remain there for long.

This week sees the return of “first tier” data including updates on CPI, retail sales, industrial production / capacity utilization, PPI, and Michigan sentiment. Other data includes regional Fed surveys, import prices, factory orders, NAHB HMI, and housing starts. Fed speakers are currently limited to a few Fed presidents, while Treasury supply will consist of just bills. Regarding MBS, Class B and C 48-hours are tomorrow and Thursday, respectively.

Today’s lone data point is the January budget statement, due out this afternoon, with the CBO forecasting a deficit of $21 billion, compared with $38.8 billion in the prior fiscal year. Markets will also receive remarks from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari. We begin Monday with Agency MBS prices a few 32nds (ticks) better than Friday afternoon, the 10-year yielding 4.16 after closing last week at 4.19 percent, and the 2-year is at 4.46.

Jobs

“Hey, mortgage sales professionals DO NOT join radius financial group for our amazing culture, president club trips, best workplace accolades, 100 percent 401K match or because of our shared success program which grants phantom stock to ALL employees. Join radius to grow your business, mortgage team and wealth. Over the past 23 years, radius has become the best at what we do by caring intensely about the career growth of our team members and investing in technology that simplifies and automates our process. We are a world-class customer obsessed team focused on our loan officers’ growth and success. So, if you want real opportunities to grow, the ability to make a positive impact starting on day one and the freedom to chart the career you’ve always wanted, at radius, you can! For confidential inquires please contact Carla Herrera and visit us at radius financial group inc., Mortgage Lending Careers.

The Money Store has announced that Coleen Bogle has joined the mortgage lender as its Chief Marketing Officer. Bogle has more than 15 years of experience leading marketing departments in the home financing industry, and in her new role, she will focus on enhancing the brand, expanding marketing services, and attracting top-tier mortgage origination talent to the organization.

Private mortgage insurance companies are hiring: MGIC, National MI, Arch MI, Radian, Essent, and Enact (in no particular order). And while’s we’re at it, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And my cat Myrtle’s friend the CFPB has career opportunities.

Don’t forget that anyone can post a resume, for free, at www.lendernews.com for potential employers to view for a nominal charge of $75 for several months.

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for Rob Chrisman’s Commentary.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Apache is functioning normally

Nonqualified mortgage (non-QM) wholesale lender A&D Mortgage has obtained licenses to originate loans in Arkansas and Mississippi, the company announced on Thursday. 

“This expansion is not only about growing our business; it’s about wholeheartedly bringing A&D Mortgage’s unwavering commitment to top-notch service, highly competitive rates, and tailored loan solutions to more Americans,” Max Slyusarchuk, CEO of A&D Mortgage, said in a statement.

In the past 45 days, A&D Mortgage has strategically entered six new states, including Arkansas, Maine, Montana, Oklahoma, Kansas and Mississippi, a spokesperson told HousingWire.

A&D Mortgage offers a wide range of products, including conventional loans, government loans, foreign national loans and non-QM loans, to cater to a diverse array of borrower needs.

In addition to its geographic expansion, A&D Mortgage is looking to strengthen its conventional lending business by adding seasoned professionals to its sales team. 

Andrew Taylor, a former senior vice president of third-party originator (TPO) sales at JMAC Lending, and Bobby Frank, who served as SVP and director of wholesale lending at Citizens Bank since 1995, have joined A&D as senior vice presidents of wholesale lending and wholesale lending strategy, respectively. This strategic move aims to enhance the company’s conventional lending services. 

A&D Mortgage also hired three new account executives: Tommy Williams, Betsy Marvin and Lori Welton. Together, they bring valuable conventional lending expertise from their previous roles at Citizens Bank. 

In 2023, A&D Mortgage saw its origination volume top $2 billion, according to a spokesperson.

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

Weekly housing inventory data

Here is a look at the first week of the year:

  • Weekly inventory change (Jan. 12-19): Inventory rose from 505,223 to 506,414
  • Same week last year (Jan. 13-20): Inventory fell from 473,406 to 472,852
  • The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194
  • The inventory peak for 2023 is 569,898
  • For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 933,746

Yes, the inventory growth rate slowed weekly, but I will take it! I have been waiting for years for a standard inventory data line to start the year, and so far that’s what I’m seeing. Traditionally, the weekly inventory bottoms out in January or February and rises into the spring. The bottom has been in March and April in the past few years. So far, so good in 2024.

New listings data

While new listings data isn’t growing in significant terms year over year — sorry, silver tsunami crowd — it is showing growth year over year. Most sellers are buyers, and new listing data decreased after rates increased in 2022. So, we are working our way back to normal, and lthough we still have a way to go, but I am happy with this. I talked about this very topic on CNBC a few days ago. 

New listings data last week over the past several years:

  • 2024: 44,244
  • 2023: 42,765
  • 2022: 42,620

Price cut percentage

Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — nothing abnormal about that. However, this data line accelerates when mortgage rates rise and demand gets hit harder. A perfect example was in 2022: when housing inventory rose faster, the percentage of price cuts rose faster, as home sales crashed. That increase matched the slope of the inventory increase, and people needed to cut prices to sell their homes.

This is not what we’re seeing now, as home sales aren’t crashing like they did in 2022. Sales aren’t growing much, but they’re not crashing as they did in 2022, so we track this data line religiously weekly to get clues, especially with the movement of mortgage rates 

This is the price-cut percentage for the same week over the last few years:

  • 2024 31.4%
  • 2023 34.7%
  • 2022 20.6%

Purchase application data

So, the 2024 spring season officially started last week and purchase apps were positive 9% week to week. I believe tracking this data line when mortgage rates are rising is always vital. Of course, we aren’t talking about 8% mortgage rates anymore, but mortgage rates have risen from the recent lows.  So far no damage to the data line yet. We have had a positive trend streak since rates have fallen. I exclude all the holiday weeks and the first week of the year, so we have had seven weeks of positive trend and year-to-data we’ve had one positive print.

We just had the existing home sales report that showed a month-to-month decline. One thing to always remember about purchase application data: it looks out 30-90 days before it hits the sales data, so the December report was too soon to account for the full effect of lower mortgage rates and rising application data.

Also, remember we are working from deficient demand levels, so take the bounce in that context. This isn’t like the COVID-19 recovery, which was fast and had a big volume. 

Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield

The 10-year yield is the key for housing in 2024. In my 2024 forecast, I have the 10-year yield range between 3.21%-4.25%, with a critical line in the sand at 3.37%. If the economic data stays firm, we shouldn’t break below 3.21%, but if the labor data gets weaker, that line in the sand — which I call the Gandalf line, as in “you shall not pass” — will be tested. This 10-year yield range means mortgage rates between 5.75%-7.25%. This assumes spreads are still bad.

Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield both rose last week. Mortgage rates started the week at 6.77% and finished the week at 6.92%. The 10-year yield started the week around 4%, and intraday almost reached 4.20% before heading lower and ending at 4.13%. One positive story in 2024 is that the spreads are getting better this year, and if we get 4.25% on the 10-year yield, we won’t hit 7.25% in mortgage rates.

Last week, we had some excellent labor data from jobless claims. We also had some Fed presidents push back on rate cuts, regarding how many we will have this year. So, always remember that inflation data has fallen noticeably year over year. However, you want to go with labor data over inflation if you’re looking for lower mortgage rates, especially under 6%.

The growth rate on a three- to six-month Core PCE inflation report could be under 2% in the following report. Even with that reality, which the market knows, the 10-year yield today is still above 4%. This looks right to me with a Hawkish Fed and the jobless claims data being low. The closer we get to my critical level of 323,000 on the four-week moving average, the more the bond market will act differently; the headline data just broke under 200,000 again.

Remember, the Fed hasn’t pivoted: they’re less hawkish with their policy because they over-hiked last year and want to take back some of their rate hikes.

The week ahead: Inflation and housing

We have the all-important PCE inflation report coming out Friday, which can show sub 2% PCE inflation data on the three- and six-month averages. We also have new home sales and pending home sales. Pending home sales should show a bounce from the recent report as we will start to filter the positive purchase apps report. If it doesn’t show growth, it should be the last one before it picks up a bit. 

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

Last week, housing inventory grew and the number of price cuts fell, which is expected at this time of the year. I hope the next thing we see is housing inventory grow at the level it typically does in January or February instead of being delayed until March or April. Last year at this time, inventory rose week to week and I was hopeful for a typical spring inventory year, but the seasonal bottom didn’t actually happen until April 14. So let’s hope for more home sellers in 2024.

Weekly housing inventory data

Here is a look at the first week of the year:

  • Weekly inventory change (Jan. 5-12): Inventory rose from 499,143 to 505,223
  • Same week last year (Jan. 6-13): Inventory rose from 471,349 to 473,406
  • The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194
  • The inventory peak for 2023 is 569,898
  • For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 931,002 

I don’t want to jinx this because active inventory rose last year at this time. In any case, we will keep an eye on housing inventory going out in the future. As you can see, we are still a bit away from my ultimate goal of having total active listings back to 2019 levels.

Price cut percentage

Every year, one third of all homes take a price cut before they sell — there is nothing abnormal about that. However, this data line accelerates when mortgage rates rise and demand gets hit harder. A perfect example was 2022: when housing inventory rose, the percentage of price cuts rose and home sales crashed. This is not what we’re seeing now. Sales aren’t growing much, but they’re not crashing as they did in 2022 so we track this data line religiously every week to get clues.

This is the price-cut percentage for the same week over the last few years:

  • 2024 32.2%
  • 2023 35.8%
  • 2022 21.7%

New listing data

New listings data can grow in 2024, something I talked about on CNBC last year as this data line didn’t trend much lower when mortgage rates were heading toward 8%. We took an affordability hit after July of 2022 and since most sellers are also buyers, it was too expensive to move, or you couldn’t qualify to sell to buy another house, directly impacting housing inventory.

Every year, wages grow and home-price growth has significantly slowed since the madness after COVID-19. We can grow new listings from these depressed levels and get more demand. While this isn’t the Silver Tsunami some have promised, any growth back to 2021-2022 levels is a plus.

  • 2024 39,640
  • 2023 36,804
  • 2022 37,091

Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield

The 10-year yield is the key for housing in 2024. In my 2024 forecast, I have the 10-year yield range between 3.21%-4.25%, with a critical line in the sand at 3.37%. If the economic data stays firm, we shouldn’t break below 3.21%, but if the labor data gets weaker, that line in the sand — which I call the Gandalf line, as in “you shall not pass” — will be tested. This 10-year yield range means mortgage rates between 5.75%-7.25%. This assumes spreads are still bad.

Last week, even with the CPI and PPI inflation data, the 10-year yield stayed in a small range between 3.92%-4.07%. We have already moved lower in a big fashion from 5.04% to 3.80%; that 3.80% level is critical for now. Mortgage ranges have been calm as the spreads have been getting better. Mortgage rates started the week at 6.74%, reached as high as 6.80% and ended the week at 6.69%. We want to watch labor data and track if the spreads improve this year because mortgage rates should be 0.75% to 1.125% lower today but aren’t due to the spreads.

Next week, retail sales could be a driver of the 10-year yield, and therefore mortgage rates.  Also, any Federal Reserve presidents talking about slowing down the quantitative tightening process would be a plus. This is something that they have been talking about recently.  

Purchase application data

One of the things I have stressed over the years is that nobody should put any weight on the purchase application data during the last few weeks of the year because hardly anyone fills out a mortgage application during Christmas and New Years. And since the data takes a seasonal low dive, it tends to then bounce during the first week of the year, so we should ignore the first week of the year as well.

This is why I stress tracking purchase applications the second week of January to the first week of May. Volumes always tend to fall after May. With that said, purchase applications did have 6% week-to-week growth last week, but what was more encouraging to see is that when mortgage rates fell recently from 8% to almost 6.50%, we had six weeks of positive growth.

We can now officially start the seasonal housing period and the year-to-date counts on how many positive weeks we have versus negative weeks and where rates move. Remember that last year, even with mortgage rates ranging between 6%-8%, we had 23 positive and 24 negative prints and two flat prints for the year. Imagine a year with lower rates, and one where we don’t have a 2% increase in the calendar year. As you can see in the chart below, the bar is low for growth.

The week ahead: Housing week and CNBC 

We have a ton of housing data coming up this week, including builders’ confidence, housing starts and the existing home sales report. Retail sales also come out this week, and that report might move the bond market early in the morning. And unless the schedule changes, I will be on CNBC on Thursday on the Exchange segment, talking about the housing starts data.

The key for 2024: track all economic data religiously to see its impact on the 10-year yield!

Source: housingwire.com