While more stable over the past nine months, the economy was highly volatile from 2020 through the first half of 2023.
After the pandemic hit, the Fed dropped the fed funds rate to zero and demand surged in the housing market causing home values to skyrocket. Then, inflation began to run away and the Fed hiked rates 11 times. Meanwhile, the average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate went from 2.8% in late 2021 up to a 22-year high of 7.79% in October 2023.
Since December, mortgage rates have been more stable, fluctuating between 6.5 and 7%. However, many are now wondering if rumored Fed cuts will change that.
“As the market gains more certainty and as inflation curbs, it is very likely that there will be rate cuts this year,” says Scott Haymore, senior vice president and head of mortgage capital markets and product management at TD Bank. “Currently, Fed Funds futures contracts have three rate cuts built in starting in the second half of this year,” he says.
If Fed rate cuts do happen as many expect, how far can you expect mortgage rates to drop, if at all? We asked some experts for their rate predictions.
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How far will mortgage rates fall when the Fed cuts rates?
Here’s where three experts predict mortgage rates are heading:
Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: “Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%,” says Haymore. “By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower.”
Hold steady through 2024: Afifa Saburi, a capital markets analyst for Veterans United Home Loans, doesn’t think rates are going to drop much this year. “Mortgage rates won’t fall much from where they are today because the rate cuts that the Fed has penciled in are already priced in by the markets. This means that almost all of the rate relief that we would see from rate cuts is already here,” Saburi explains.
Hold steady through mid-2025: Jeremy Schachter, branch manager at Fairway Independent Mortgage Company, says he expects rates will stay in the higher 6% range and won’t fall much in 2024 or even early to mid-2025. “With goals of the Federal Reserve to get inflation around the 2% mark, I don’t expect the Feds to lower rates until September or later in 2024,” Schachter says. “Unfortunately, we still have to have a bit more pain in the economy with higher unemployment to see the Federal Reserve lower rates.”
The bottom line? While rates may drop modestly, we likely won’t be getting back to the 3 to 5% rates that were the norm from 2010 to 2020 in the upcoming year.
Learn more about today’s mortgage rates online now.
Should you wait to buy a home?
If you find a great home and the financing fits into your budget, experts say you typically don’t want to wait.
“The best advice is still: When you find a home you love inside your budget, buy it. Mortgage rates are unpredictable but, right now, home values are not,” says Dan Green, chief executive officer at Homebuyer.com. If rates do drop, you can always refinance to secure a lower rate but you won’t always be able to buy a particular home.
You should also consider the opportunity cost of waiting. “On average home appreciation is between 4 and 5% each year. If you decide to hold off until 2025, how much will that home be worth vs. purchasing it now?” asks Schachter. He explains that if you decide to wait and time the market, a home that is worth $500,000 now could have appreciated $25,000 in 2025 (a 5% increase). “The adage, buy the home, date the rate is a perfect example of this scenario,” Schachter added.
A drop in rates also often causes more buyers to enter the market which drives up home prices. “I believe we will see rate cuts come in the fall if at all this year. Along with that, you will see buyers come back to the fray and it will make competition even harder in a housing shortage-dominated market. Yes, rates will be lower but prices may be much higher,” predicts Ralph DiBugnara, president of Home Qualified and senior vice president at Cardinal Financial.
Mortgage interest rates inched up this week, following nine straight declines totaling a decrease of 118 basis points (1.18%).
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) rose from 6.61% on Dec. 28 to 6.62% on Jan. 4, according to Freddie Mac.
“Given the expectation of rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, as well as receding inflationary pressures, we expect mortgage rates will continue to drift downward as the year unfolds,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
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Will mortgage rates go down in January?
Mortgage rates fluctuated significantly in 2023, with the average 30-year fixed rate going as low as 6.09% on Feb. 2 and as high as 7.79% on Oct. 26, according to Freddie Mac.
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The range can be largely attributed to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against inflation, juxtaposed with uncertainty in the banking sector sparked by Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. However, with duress permeating the financial market and the fallout from U.S. debt ceiling talks, the Fed may continue making hikes to bring interest rates down.
With the economy likely heading into a recession, it’s possible we’ve already seen the peak of this rate cycle. Of course, interest rates are notoriously volatile and could tick back up on any given week.
Experts from CoreLogic, Home Qualified, Realtor.com and others weigh in on whether 30-year mortgage rates will climb, fall, or level off in January.
Expert mortgage rate predictions for January
Craig Berry, branch manager at Acopia Home Loans
Prediction: Rates will moderate
“As inflation is the no. 1 item on the Federal Reserve’s radar right now, the Feds may choose not to lower the federal funds rate until inflation comes down. And, while Fed rate cuts aren’t a must-have in order for mortgage rates to come down, interest rates are affected by the federal funds rate.
The Feds continue to seek a balance between inflation and maximum employment so as not to cause significant damage to the economy which could trigger a recession. Recent momentum has been positive, and as long inflation cooperates, mortgage rates may see a slight decline in January. However, it isn’t likely that we’ll see significant drops to longer-term rates until we get further into 2024.”
Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified
Prediction: Rates will fall
“Rates finally shifted down some in December and stabilized lower. U.S. payrolls came in lower than anticipated, unemployment was up and building of new homes was down. These are good signs that inflation may have reached its peak and could trigger a lowering of rates. I expect the Fed to stay neutral for the time being and possibly through the first quarter of the year with possible cuts coming only if we see a drastic shift in the economy. For January, I believe the average 30-year fixed will land at 7.125% and the 15-year fixed will be 6.75%.”
Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic
Prediction: Rates will fall
“Mortgage rates should continue to decline, albeit very gradually and given there are no surprises with inflation. We should see rates fall below 7% mark.”
Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com
Prediction: Rates will fall
“If inflation and employment data continue to show signs of slowing, mortgage rates are likely to ease in January, though at a slower clip than in recent weeks. As incoming data confirms that the economy is indeed cooling, the upward pressure on mortgage rates will continue to let up and buyers will enjoy lower rates than in recent months.
However, if inflation or employment data come in stronger than expected, we could see rates pick up steam once again. Investors expect the Fed to hold steady at the current target rate in next week’s meeting, which would signal the Committee’s confidence in the current policy stance to bring inflation down to the target 2%. As inflation reaches the target level, mortgage rates will continue to drift lower.”
Jess Kennedy, COO at Beeline
Prediction: Rates will fall
“We expect rates to continue to ease as we kick off 2024. You can see the signaling of a rate cut from the Fed in many ways. For example, it is harder to find long-term CDs at the higher interest rates we were seeing 45-60 days ago). Publicly traded companies are also seeing their stock prices move higher on the expectation of rate relief in 2024. All these signs signal rates start to tick down even ahead of an official rate cut.”
Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American
Prediction: Rates will fall
“In light of favorable trends in inflation and labor market data, the Federal Reserve appears to be on a path towards its goals, although achieving its 2% inflation target will take some time. Consequently, the Fed is expected to maintain a restrictive stance, which will keep mortgage rates elevated. However, given slowing inflation and a cooling labor market, and barring any unforeseen developments, modest reductions in mortgage rates are possible in January.”
Rick Sharga, CEO at CJ Patrick Company
Prediction: Rates will fall
“With inflation moving in the right direction, wage growth slowing, and the jobs market softening a bit, it seems likely that the Federal Reserve has finished rate hikes for this cycle. That, coupled with weakening bond yields, should create an environment where mortgage rates can start a gradual, but steady decline throughout 2024. January rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans will probably straddle 7% — ranging from 7.1% to about 6.9% as the market finds its footing to begin the year.”
Mortgage interest rates forecast next 90 days
As inflation ran rampant in 2022, the Federal Reserve took action to bring it down and that led to the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage spiking in 2023.
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With inflation gradually cooling, the Fed adjusted its policies with smaller and skipped hikes. Additionally, the economy showing signs of slowing has many experts believing mortgage interest rates will gradually descend in 2024.
Of course, rates could rise on any given week or if another global event causes widespread uncertainty in the economy.
Mortgage rate predictions for 2024
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.62%% as of Jan. 4, according to Freddie Mac. All five major housing authorities we looked at project 2024’s first quarter average to finish above that.
The National Association of Home Builders sits at the low end of the group, predicting the average 30-year fixed interest rate to settle at 7.04% for Q1. Meanwhile, Fannie Mae had the highest forecast of 7.6%.
Housing Authority
30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast (Q1 2024)
National Association of Home Builders
6.77%
Wells Fargo
6.85%
Fannie Mae
7.00%
Mortgage Bankers Association
7.00%
National Association of Realtors
7.50%
Average Prediction
7.02%
Current mortgage interest rate trends
Mortgage rates came down for the ninth consecutive week.
The average 30-year fixed rate increased from 6.61% on Dec. 28 to 6.62% on Jan. 4 The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate fell, going from 5.93% to 5.89%.
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Month
Average 30-Year Fixed Rate
December 2022
6.36%
January 2023
6.27%
February 2023
6.26%
March 2023
6.54%
April 2023
6.34%
May 2023
6.43%
June 2023
6.71%
July 2023
6.84%
August 2023
7.07%
September 2023
7.20%
October 2023
7.62%
November 2023
7.44%
December 2023
6.82%
Source: Freddie Mac
After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2024. Whatever happens, interest rates are still below historical averages.
Dating back to April 1971, the fixed 30-year interest rate averaged around 7.8%, according to Freddie Mac. So if you haven’t locked a rate yet, don’t lose too much sleep over it. You can still get a good deal, historically speaking — especially if you’re a borrower with strong credit.
Just make sure you shop around to find the best lender and lowest rate for your unique situation.
Mortgage rate trends by loan type
Many mortgage shoppers don’t realize there are different types of rates in today’s mortgage market. But this knowledge can help home buyers and refinancing households find the best value for their situation.
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Which mortgage loan is best?
The best mortgage for you depends on your financial situation and your goals.
For instance, if you want to buy a high-priced home and you have great credit, a jumbo loan is your best bet. Jumbo mortgages allow loan amounts above conforming loan limits, which max out at $ in most parts of the U.S.
On the other hand, if you’re a veteran or service member, a VA loan is almost always the right choice. VA loans are backed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. They provide ultra-low rates and never charge private mortgage insurance (PMI). But you need an eligible service history to qualify.
Conforming loans and FHA loans (those backed by the Federal Housing Administration) are great low-down-payment options.
Conforming loans allow as little as 3% down with FICO scores starting at 620. FHA loans are even more lenient about credit; home buyers can often qualify with a score of 580 or higher, and a less-than-perfect credit history might not disqualify you.
Finally, consider a USDA loan if you want to buy or refinance real estate in a rural area. USDA loans have below-market rates — similar to VA — and reduced mortgage insurance costs. The catch? You need to live in a ‘rural’ area and have moderate or low income to be USDA-eligible.
Mortgage rate strategies for January 2024
Mortgage rates displayed their famous volatility in 2023. Uncertainty in the banking sector led to downtrends, but ongoing inflation battles, Fed hikes and a hot job market drove growth.
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At its September and November meetings, the central bank held off on a rate hike, preferring to see if the economy would keep cooling organically. In December, the FOMC skipped a hike and projected cuts for 2024. As always, the committee said it would adjust its policies as necessary — which could mean additional hikes or possibly none at all.
Here are just a few strategies to keep in mind if you’re mortgage shopping in the coming months.
Be ready to move quickly
Indecision can lead to failure or missed opportunities. That holds true in home buying as well.
Although the housing market is becoming more balanced than the recent past, it still favors sellers. Prospective borrowers should take the lessons learned from the last few years and apply them now even though conditions are less extreme.
“Taking too long to decide to make an offer can lead to paying more for the home at best and at worst to losing out on it entirely. Buyers should get pre-approved (not pre-qualified) for their mortgage, so that the seller has some certainty about the deal closing. And be ready to close quickly — a long escrow period will put you at a disadvantage.
And it’s definitely not a bad idea to work with a real estate agent who has access to “coming soon” properties, which can give a buyer a little bit of a head start competing for the limited number of homes available,” said Rick Sharga.
Buyer demand is lower than a typical year, but the market usually heats up in spring and summer. Being decisive (and prepared) should only play to your advantage.
Shopping around isn’t only for the holidays
Since interest rates can vary drastically from day to day and from lender to lender, failing to shop around likely leads to money lost.
Lenders charge different rates for different levels of credit scores. And while there are ways to negotiate a lower mortgage rate, the easiest is to get multiple quotes from multiple lenders and leverage them against each other.
“For potential home buyers, it’s important to get quotes from multiple lenders for a mortgage, as rates can vary dramatically, especially during such a volatile period,” said Odeta Kushi.
As the mortgage market slows due to lessened demand, lenders will be more eager for business. While missing out on the rock-bottom rates of 2020 and 2021 may sting, there’s always a way to use the market to your advantage.
How to shop for interest rates
Rate shopping doesn’t just mean looking at the lowest rates advertised online because those aren’t available to everyone. Typically, those are offered to borrowers with great credit who can put a down payment of 20% or more.
The rate lenders actually offer depends on:
Your credit score and credit history
Your personal finances
Your down payment (if buying a home)
Your home equity (if refinancing)
Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV)
Your debt-to-income ratio (DTI)
To figure out what rate a lender can offer you based on those factors, you have to fill out a loan application. Lenders will check your credit and verify your income and debts, then give you a ‘real’ rate quote based on your financial situation.
You should get three to five of these quotes at a minimum, then compare them to find the best offer. Look for the lowest rate, but also pay attention to your annual percentage rate (APR), estimated closing costs, and ‘discount points’ — extra fees charged upfront to lower your rate.
This might sound like a lot of work. But you can shop for mortgage rates in under a day if you put your mind to it. And shaving just a few basis points off your rate can save you thousands.
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Mortgage interest rate FAQ
What are current mortgage rates?
Current mortgage rates are averaging 6.62% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan and 5.89% for a 15-year fixed-rate loan, according to Freddie Mac’s latest weekly rate survey. Your individual rate could be higher or lower than the average depending on your credit score, down payment, and the lender you choose to work with, among other factors.
Will mortgage rates go down next week?
Mortgage rates could decrease next week (Jan. 8-12, 2024) if the mortgage market takes a cautious approach to a possible recession. However, rates could rise if lenders account for the Federal Reserve taking measures to counteract inflation or if a global event brings economic uncertainty.
Will mortgage interest rates go down in 2024?
If inflation continues to dissipate and the economy cools or goes into a recession, it’s likely mortgage rates will decrease in 2024. Although, it’s important to remember that interest rates are notoriously volatile and are driven by many factors, so they can rise during any given week.
Will mortgage interest rates go up in 2024?
Mortgage rates may continue to rise in 2024. High inflation, a strong housing market, and policy changes by the Federal Reserve have all pushed rates higher in 2022 and 2023. However, if the U.S. does indeed enter a recession, mortgage rates could come down.
What is the lowest mortgage rate right now?
Freddie Mac is now citing average 30-year rates in the 7% range. If you can find a rate in the 5s or 6s, you’re in a very good position. Remember that rates vary a lot by borrower. Those with perfect credit and large down payments may get below-average interest rates, while poor-credit borrowers and those with non-QM loans could see much higher rates. You’ll need to get pre-approved for a mortgage to know your exact rate.
Will there be a housing crash?
For the most part, industry experts do not expect the housing market to crash in 2023. Yes, home prices are over-inflated. But many of the risk factors that led to the 2008 crash are not present in today’s market. Low inventory and massive buyer demand should keep the market propped up next year. Plus, mortgage lending practices are much safer than they used to be. That means there’s not a subprime mortgage crisis waiting in the wings.
What is the lowest mortgage rate ever?
At the time of this writing, the lowest 30-year mortgage rate ever was 2.65%. That’s according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the most widely used benchmark for current mortgage interest rates.
Should I lock my rate now or wait?
Locking your rate is a personal decision. You should do what’s right for your situation rather than trying to time the market. If you’re buying a home, the right time to lock a rate is after you’ve secured a purchase agreement and shopped for your best mortgage deal. If you’re refinancing, you should make sure you compare offers from at least three to five lenders before locking a rate. That said, rates are rising. So the sooner you can lock in today’s market, the better.
Is now a good time to refinance?
That depends on your situation. It’s a good time to refinance if your current mortgage rate is above market rates and you could lower your monthly mortgage payment. It might also be good to refinance if you can switch from an adjustable-rate mortgage to a low fixed-rate mortgage; refinance to get rid of FHA mortgage insurance; or switch to a short-term 10- or 15-year mortgage to pay off your loan early.
Is it worth refinancing for 1 percent?
It’s often worth refinancing for 1 percentage point, as this can yield significant savings on your mortgage payments and total interest payments. Just make sure your refinance savings justify your closing costs. You can use a mortgage calculator or speak with a loan officer to crunch the numbers.
How do I shop for mortgage rates?
Start by choosing a list of three to five mortgage lenders that you’re interested in. Look for lenders with low advertised rates, great customer service scores, and recommendations from friends, family, or a real estate agent. Then get pre-approved by those lenders to see what rates and fees they can offer you. Compare your offers (Loan Estimates) to find the best overall deal for the loan type you want.
What are today’s mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are rising, but borrowers can almost always find a better deal by shopping around. Connect with a mortgage lender to find out exactly what rate you qualify for.
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1Today’s mortgage rates are based on a daily survey of select lending partners of The Mortgage Reports. Interest rates shown here assume a credit score of 740. See our full loan assumptions here.
If you’re nearing the end of the initial term on your adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM), you might be wondering if now is a good time to refinance, and whether you should switch to a fixed rate.
In general, fixed-rate loans are good when rates are low or on the rise, because they lock in your payment and help you avoid constant rate increases. If rates are dropping, then an ARM lets you benefit from those decreases.
“The idea of trading away the uncertainty of an adjustable-rate mortgage for the certainty of a fixed-rate mortgage is appealing, especially if you’re expecting an adjustment in the next year or two,” says Greg McBride, CFA, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.
How to refinance an ARM
Like many types of loans, you can refinance an ARM. When you refinance an ARM, you replace your existing loan with a brand new one.
Lenders typically offer specific mortgage refinancing loans, so you’ll use their refinance application form to apply. Beyond that, the process is similar to your initial mortgage application, except that you already own the home. That can make some things, like inspections and appraisals a bit easier to schedule.
Keep in mind that you can choose the lender for your refinance. it could be your current lender or a different one.
To give yourself a good chance of qualifying for a refinancing loans, try to meet these requirements:
Own the home for at least six months
Have at least 20 percent equity
Have a credit score of at least 620 (for a conventional loan)
Have a debt-to-income ratio under 50 percent
Also keep in mind that you have to pay closing costs on the new loan, so you’ll want to make sure that you can afford to pay them. Also make sure that refinancing saves you more than it costs.
Benefits of switching to a fixed-rate mortgage
If you’ve never had a fixed-rate mortgage, here are the key upsides of this type of loan:
Your payments are always the same: A fixed-rate mortgage gives you the certainty of predictable payments. Rather than wondering how the market will impact your payments on an ARM, a fixed-rate option never changes for the entire loan term.
You can budget more easily: With a fixed-rate loan, you can plan for a stable housing payment.
You still have options: If a 30-year mortgage sounds like a lifetime, you can also look at a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage. The rates on this type of loan are even lower, but the tradeoff is that you’ll have higher monthly payments due to the accelerated timeline.
Is now a good time to refinance an ARM?
Mortgage rates rose significantly in 2022 and are much higher than they were in previous years. That means refinancing to a fixed-rate loan will lock in these high rates.
On the other hand, if your introductory rate is about to end, refinancing might still make sense, especially if you can secure a lower rate on a fixed-rate loan than the rate your ARM is about to adjust to. Another perk is that it gives you predictability despite today’s unpredictable rate environment.
Credit score: Do you have a strong enough credit score to obtain a competitive interest rate?
Financial goals: Would rather prioritize another goal such as paying off high-interest debt?
Longer-term plans: Will you stay in the home long enough for you to exceed the break-even point on your closing costs?
Ability to afford closing costs: Will the burden of paying closing costs outweigh the benefits of a lower monthly payment?
How is your credit?
Refinancing isn’t an automatic money-saver. You need to have strong credit to qualify for the lowest rate and the biggest savings opportunity. If you’ve been making timely payments on your ARM, that should be helping elevate your credit score.
“Someone coming up on the end of an ARM presumably has five or more years of timely mortgage payments on their credit history,” says Austin Kilgore, director of corporate communications at mortgage firm Achieve. “There’s a good chance their credit score is better now and they may qualify for something better.”
If your credit could use some work, however, it’s best to wait to refinance until you’ve improved your score. Check your credit report for any errors, such as incorrect contact information — and if something’s amiss, contact the credit reporting agency as soon as possible to get it fixed. If you can, pay down or pay off other debt, and continue to make credit card and other loan payments on time each month.
What are your financial goals?
Think about the financial goals refinancing can help you achieve, such as paying off your mortgage sooner, doing a cash-out refinance or consolidating debt. While a cash-out refinance increases the amount you owe, you’ll be able to use the funds for home improvements or other expenses or goals.
How long do you plan to stay in the home?
If you have no intention of moving or selling your home anytime soon, refinancing into a fixed-rate mortgage can be a smart decision. If a move is on your near-term horizon, however, it’s likely not worth the cost to refinance.
For example, if you’d save $100 on your monthly mortgage payment by refinancing, and the closing costs are $2,000, it’d take you 20 months, or close to two years, before you really start to see savings. Bankrate’s mortgage refinance break-even calculator can help you run the numbers for your situation.
“If you’re only looking at being at home for three or four more years and you have four years before it resets, and a new loan is not at least three-eighths of a basis point lower than your current rate, you might as well stay in your ARM,” advises Ralph DiBugnara, founder of Home Qualified, a digital resource for homebuyers and sellers. “There’s no financial benefit to move forward into a fixed rate.”
Should I refinance to a fixed rate mortgage?
At the very least, you should think about refinancing your ARM to a fixed rate if current mortgage rates are lower than the rate you’re paying or you’re nearing the end of the initial term on your ARM. The rate isn’t the only piece of the puzzle, however. Consider the following:
How much could you pay when your ARM resets? Make sure you have a clear understanding of the annual cap and the lifetime cap on your ARM. The annual cap will give you an idea of how much the rate could increase when it resets, and the lifetime cap is the maximum allowed for the entire duration of the loan.
Are you paying off an interest-only ARM? If your ARM included an interest-only introductory period, you’ve only needed to pay the interest, not the principal. Your payments will rise significantly when you have to pay down the actual loan, so it may be smart to refinance to a fixed-rate option.
Another thing to think about is refinancing your ARM to another ARM. This means getting another introductory rate period and kicking the can on truly adjustable rates down the road by a year or two – or five. Compare rates for new ARMs and fixed-rate loans to see if this makes sense.
Bottom line
Refinancing an ARM to a fixed-rate mortgage can be a wise investment in your financial future, potentially saving you thousands in lower monthly mortgage payments over the life of the loan. Not only that, you’ll be spared the uncertainty and stress that may accompany a fluctuating mortgage rate. Before you make your decision, take a holistic look at your financial situation and consider factors like your credit score, financial goals, and ability to afford closing costs.
The $15,000 tax break would jumpstart a first-time homebuyer’s prospects of purchasing. The tax credit – along with Biden’s other economic goals outlined in his $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan – seems more of a possibility now that both Senate races in Georgia went to Democratic challengers.
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