Apache is functioning normally

High mortgage rates and harsh weather are pushing down home sales, but some house hunters are touring and getting a feel for the market. 

The bumpy start to 2024’s housing market continues, with daily average mortgage rates posting their biggest one-day increase in over a year on February 2. The jump came after a hotter-than-expected January jobs report and the Fed’s confirmation that they’re unlikely to cut interest rates in the next two months, which means mortgage rates will probably remain elevated near their current level for at least that long.

Rising home prices are exacerbating rising rates, with the typical monthly mortgage payment just about $100 shy of October’s all-time high. The median U.S. sale price rose 5.4% year over year during the four weeks ending February 4, the biggest increase in over a year. High housing costs are pricing out many would-be homebuyers; pending sales are down 8%, the biggest decline in four months. There are also a few other contributors to sales falling: Harsh winter weather in the first half of January delayed a lot of homebuying deals, and pending sales were improving at this time last year as mortgage rates temporarily dropped.

Still, some house hunters are at least getting a feel for the market. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a seasonally adjusted measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents–has steadily risen since mid-January, and a separate measure of home tours shows they’ve increased 16% since the start of the year, compared with a 10% rise at this time last year. Some sellers are jumping in, too, with new listings up 7% year over year. 

“We’re seeing a bit of recovery with house hunters touring homes, but even demand at the earliest stages isn’t up as much as we would expect at this time of year,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead. “That’s because mortgage rates are climbing again and winter weather has been harsher than usual in much of the country, keeping some house hunters at home.” 

Luis Rojas, a Redfin Premier agent in the Viera West, FL area, said today’s housing market is touch and go. “High mortgage rates brought the local market to a near-standstill from August through November, activity picked up when rates dropped a bit in mid-December, and now it’s slowing down again as rates rise,” Rojas said. “I’m advising buyers–especially first-timers–that the mortgage rates they see in the news aren’t the be-all and end-all. Some local lenders are willing to give rates in the 5% range for new construction projects because any business is better than no business.”

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
Value (if applicable) Recent change Year-over-year change Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate 6.92% (Feb. 7) Up from 6.75% a week earlier Up from 6.39% Mortgage News Daily 
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate 6.63% (week ending Feb. 1) Near lowest level since May Up from 6.09% Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) Down 1% from a week earlier; up 3% from a month earlier (as of week ending Feb. 2) Down 19% Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) Up slightly from a week earlier, but down 7% from a month earlier (as of week ending Feb. 4) Down 14% Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Google searches for “home for sale” Down 2% from a month earlier (as of Feb. 3) Down 16% Google Trends 
Touring activity Up 16% from the start of the year (as of Feb. 6) At this time last year, it was up 10% from the start of 2023 ShowingTime, a home touring technology company 

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending February 4, 2024

Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. 

Four weeks ending February 4, 2024 Year-over-year change Notes
Median sale price $361,498 5.4% Biggest increase since Oct. 2022
Median asking price $395,949 7% Biggest increase since Sept. 2022
Median monthly mortgage payment $2,607 at a 6.63% mortgage rate 11.5% Down roughly $110 from all-time high set in October 2023, but up roughly $250 from the four weeks ending Dec. 31
Pending sales 68,872 -7.8% Biggest decline since October 2023
New listings 70,415 6.6%
Active listings 740,834 -3.5%
Months of supply  4.2 months Unchanged 4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. 
Share of homes off market in two weeks  33.3% Up from 32%
Median days on market 48 -2  days
Share of homes sold above list price 22.4% Up from 20%
Share of homes with a price drop 5.5% +1 pt.
Average sale-to-list price ratio  98.2% +0.5 pts. 

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending February 4, 2024

Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. 

Metros with biggest year-over-year increases Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases Notes
Median sale price

Miami (13.4%)

Anaheim, CA (13.4%)

Detroit (13.3%)

Warren, MI (12.1%)

Chicago (11.3%)

San Antonio, TX (-4.7%)

Austin, TX (-3.7%)

Declined in 2 metros 
Pending sales San Jose, CA (13.8%)

San Francisco, CA (6%)

Anaheim, CA (4.5%)

Riverside, CA (0.4%)

Columbus, OH (0.2%)

San Antonio, TX (-33.2%)

Portland, OR (-30.2%)

Nashville, TN (-21.5%)

New Brunswick, TN (-19.4%)

Houston (-18.5%)

Increased in 5 metros
New listings Dallas, TX (27.1%)

Miami (26.9%)

Jacksonville, FL (26.3%)

Fort Lauderdale, FL (23.6%)

San Diego, CA (22.1%)

Chicago (-17.8%)

Atlanta (-16%)

Milwaukee, WI (-14%)

Portland, OR (-13.6%)

Nashville, TN (-10.4%)

Declined in 14 metros

Refer to our metrics definition page for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.

Source: redfin.com

Apache is functioning normally

Here’s one solid assumption for mortgage rates for 2024 — they’ll act like a yo-yo. Again.

To see the extremes that home loans go through, my trusty spreadsheet looked at swings in Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year average fixed rate going back to 1972.

And over the past half-century, the average year’s highest rate was 8.4 percent vs. a 7 percent low. That translates to a typical 12-month period having a 1.4 percentage-point swing between the top and bottom mortgage rate.

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Yes, rate volatility is fairly normal.

Three odd years

But the size of rate gyrations during the past three years has not been normal.

Remember, the Fed aggressively used interest rates to first stimulate a coronavirus-chilled economy, only to then hike rates to fight an overheated business climate.

Well, 2023 was sort of mainstream with rates running from a 7.8 percent high to a 6.1 percent low. That’s a slightly above-average 1.7-point spread, top to bottom.

Still, this was the 11th widest gap in any year during the past half-century.

Yet those fluctuations look tame vs. 2022 when rates ranged from 7.1 percent to 3.2 percent as the Fed ended its cheap-money policy. That 3.9-point chasm was the third-largest rate swing in a half-century. Bigger swings were seen in 1980 and 1982, another period when rate hikes were used to battle inflation.

And somehow all this recent mortgage turmoil followed a far calmer 2021 when the Fed used cheap money to prop up the coronavirus-chilled economy.

Rates moved only between 3.2 percent and the record-low 2.65 percent in 2021 — a half-point spread that was history’s sixth-smallest gap.

Simply stated, history clearly shows mortgage rates rarely move in a straight line.

Make or break

Do not forget, the ups and downs of rates put huge spins on a borrower’s purchasing power. These fluctuations can make or break many a homebuying deal.

During the past half-century, there’s been an average 15 percent difference between the monthly mortgage payment tied to a year’s highest mortgage rate compared to the size of the monthly check at the lowest rate.

Last year, there was a 19 percent swing, history’s ninth-largest gap swing.

And that looks stable vs. a painful 2022 and the largest gyrations of the past half-century — a 55 percent difference due to the Fed increasing rates aggressively.

All that excitement came after a placid 2021 when purchasing power swung only 7 percent.

Still, history strongly suggests that mistiming the mortgage market can be an expensive mistake.

Bottom line, I took this rate-swing history and applied it to 2023’s year-end 6.6 percent average rate to create a forecast range for 2024.

Some simple math suggests the average 30-year mortgage rate will run between 7.3 percent and 5.9 percent in 2024. And that’s without doing much thinking about the Fed’s next moves, how the economy might fare, or what’s next for inflation.

By the way, history says a year’s average mortgage rate landed within this forecast formula’s projected range 80 percent of the time.

Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected].

Source: sandiegouniontribune.com

Apache is functioning normally

Rates for 30-year mortgages dropped again, but homes remain unaffordable in most areas.  (iStock)

Mortgage rates dropped to 6.63% this week, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Rates for 30-years fixed-rate mortgages were 6.69% last week, dropping by 0.06 percentage points.

Rates for 15-year mortgages also dropped slightly from 5.96% last week to 5.94% this week. Both 15-year mortgages and 30-year mortgage rates are still higher than they were last year.

A year ago, 30-year mortgages sat at 6.09%, on average, while 15-year mortgages averaged 5.14%, Freddie Mac reported.

“Mortgage rates have been stable for nearly two months, but with continued deceleration in inflation we expect rates to decline further,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater explained.

“The economy continues to outperform due to solid job and income growth, while household formation is increasing at rates above pre-pandemic levels. These favorable factors should provide strong fundamental support to the market in the months ahead.”

As mortgage rates drop, you may decide it’s the right time to finally buy a home. To find the right mortgage for your needs, Credible can show you multiple mortgage lenders all in one place and provide you with personalized rates within minutes.

HOMEOWNERS INSURANCE RATES ON THE RISE, MAINLY DUE TO INCREASE IN NATURAL DISASTERS

Home prices are lowering in some major cities

After remaining for high most of the year, home prices are dropping slightly in some metro areas. 

Data from a recent S&P report showed prices in 12 out of 20 metro areas decreasing. This decrease in prices has led some households to move across state lines in search of more affordable areas.

Charlotte, Providence and Indianapolis saw the largest increase in buyers as they fled high-cost cities, stated a Zillow report.

Households that made these moves found homes were $7,500 less, on average, than where they left.

Cities that saw the highest outflow in households included Chicago, San Diego and Cincinnati. These metro areas often have higher housing costs and less robust economies, Zillow found.

If you think you’re ready to shop around for a home loan, consider using Credible to help you easily compare interest rates from multiple lenders, all without affecting your credit score.

HOMEOWNERS MOVING ACROSS STATE LINES, SEEKING AFFORDABILITY, FIND IT IN CERTAIN CITIES

It’ll be years before homes are affordable for the average buyer

The housing market is trudging toward recovery, largely thanks to mortgage interest rates dropping in recent months.

“The surge in pending home sales and new home sales, both determined by contract signings in the early stages of the buying process, indicates increased participation from buyers in the market,” explained Realtor.com Economist Jiayi Xu in response to Freddie Mac’s recent mortgage rates update. “Simultaneously, the recent rise in listing activity suggests that sellers are closely monitoring mortgage rates and adjusting their selling strategies accordingly.”

Potential homebuyers won’t see a full recovery anytime soon, however. JP Morgan experts predict that the real estate market will become affordable again about three and a half years from now. This is largely dependent on continued interest rate decreases.

“Despite the promising increase in listing activity, inventory is likely to remain low as sellers may not respond as swiftly as anticipated. In other words, a more substantial improvement in mortgage rates is necessary to attract more sellers to the market,” Xu said.

Until rates drop more substantially, mortgage payments are likely to stay high. In November 2023, the average monthly mortgage payment was $2,198, up from $1,993 a year earlier, a National Association of Realtors report found.

If buying a home is your near future, make sure you’re getting the best mortgage lender and rates with the help of Credible. Credible helps you compare rates and lenders and get a mortgage pre-approval letter in minutes.

JUST OVER 15% OF HOME LISTINGS WERE CONSIDERED AFFORDABLE IN 2023: REDFIN

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Source: foxbusiness.com