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The year 2024 has started with cautious optimism that mortgage rates will drop, sparking much-needed activity in the sluggish U.S. housing market.
Mortgage rates, however, have been on a rising trend of late. Recent data shows that the economy is booming, while the Federal Reserve is signaling that it will take its time before cutting benchmark interest rates.
HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.21% on Feb. 23. And according to Freddie Mac‘s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average rate inched closer to 7% this week.
Fannie Mae, however, remains optimistic that housing market activity will pick up as existing home sales and new single-family housing starts are expected to grow modestly in 2024.
While existing home sales dipped slightly in December by 1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.78 million units, an increase in mortgage applications and December pending home sales that led to average closing times of 30 to 45 days indicate that a modest rebound in sales is underway.
With a low supply of existing homes for sale, demand for new homes is likely to remain strong, and the limit on new home sales will be determined by homebuilder production capacity, according to a report released Friday by Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group.
“Single-family permits in contrast edged up 1.6 percent in January, back in line with the overall starts series,” the report noted. “With single-family permits and starts now back in alignment, we expect new single-family construction to continue to drift upward in coming months.”
Fannie Mae forecasts total mortgage origination volume of $1.92 trillion in 2024, down slightly from $1.98 trillion in its previous forecast. Volume is expected to climb to $2.36 trillion in 2025, compared to the ESR group’s January forecast of $2.44 trillion.
Softening economic growth anticipated
The ESR group upgraded its 2024 macroeconomic growth outlook due to a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) report, as well as incoming data on recent population growth and immigration trends that point to faster payroll and GDP gains over the forecast horizon.
Fannie Mae’s 2024 GDP outlook is for 1.7% growth in 2024, compared to 3.1% in 2023. The ESR group previously forecast a “mild recession” for 2024.
“An unsustainably low savings rate suggests softer consumer spending going forward, consistent with the pullback in January retail sales, and slowing local and state tax receipts point to slower direct government spending growth,” the report stated.
Further, while payroll growth looks to have reaccelerated in December and January, other labor market measurements indicate softness. The ESR group expects that the labor market “on net” is likely to cool in the near future.
“Market dynamics continue to reflect significant uncertainty regarding the sustainability of stronger-than-expected recent GDP growth, the continuity of the decline of inflation, and the path of monetary policy change, not to mention the many ways in which historical relationships in housing and the larger economy remain out of balance post-pandemic,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist, said in the report.
Source: housingwire.com
“The best news is for buyers who will see more options to choose from, increased negotiating power and reduced time pressure.”
For most of 2023, the housing market was stuck in neutral. Rising mortgage rates weighed on both supply and demand, causing home sales to plummet.
And for a while, it seemed like mortgage rates could climb indefinitely. But mortgage rates started to reverse course in November, and suddenly, the outlook for the 2024 housing market was striking a more positive tone.
While lower mortgage rates won’t entirely crack the ceiling of what’s still a historically unaffordable housing market, 2024 is expected to be more balanced, with the potential for higher inventory and slightly lower home prices, according to Fran Lisner, real estate agent with Daniel Gale Sotheby’s. “The best news is for buyers who will see more options to choose from, increased negotiating power and reduced time pressure,” Lisner said.
As we kick off the year, prospective homebuyers are wondering what’s in store for them. We talked to several experts about their housing market predictions and top tips for today’s homebuyers. Here’s what they had to say.
Read more: Mortgage Predictions: Could 2024 Be a Better Year for Homebuyers?
While experts are cautiously optimistic about the direction of the housing market in 2024, buying a home (especially if it’s your first time) is rarely a pain-free process. From tracking market conditions to the actual process of getting a mortgage, there are a lot of moving parts.
Housing market trends are dynamic and, oftentimes, hard to understand, especially when it comes to all the factors that affect mortgage rates (the list is longer than you think).
That’s why housing market experts and economists are constantly tracking economic data to better understand where things are headed. Keeping an eye on what those experts are saying, whether by reading newsletters or listening to podcasts, can help you become a more informed buyer without getting too deep into the macroeconomic weeds.
Here are some of the podcasts I listen to that help me stay in the loop.
In 2023, mortgage rates kept climbing until they passed 8% in early fall. But soon after, rates started to trend down for the first time in months. As inflation slows and the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts, experts predict mortgage rates will eventually reach 6% by the end of 2024.
“Rates are down over 1% since peaking in October, and with the Fed done with their rate hikes, we expect rates to keep falling for the next few months at least,” said Greg Heym, chief economist at Brown Harris Stevens.
But mortgage interest rates are volatile, making them difficult to predict. And while tracking mortgage rate movement isn’t the most exciting thing to do, there’s a reason experts recommend it: It can save you a lot of money and free up some room in your homebuying budget.
Your interest rate doesn’t only affect your monthly mortgage payments. It also affects the total interest you’ll pay over the course of your loan. Securing a lower rate from the beginning, even if by a few tenths of a percentage point, can save you tens of thousands of dollars over time.
Read more: Compare Current Mortgage Rates
If you haven’t already, start budgeting for your down payment and other costs associated with a home purchase, like closing costs.
The minimum down payment required by most lenders is 3% for conventional loans. But experts often recommend making a down payment closer to 20% of the property’s asking price. That way, you can take out a smaller loan and avoid having to pay private mortgage insurance.
Many lenders will approve you for a loan larger than what you need or can comfortably afford. But that means taking on more debt. “Shift from asking, ‘How much could I borrow?’ to ‘How much should I borrow?’” said Matt Vernon, head of consumer lending at Bank of America.
When creating a budget, you want to make sure you can cover your future monthly mortgage payments as well as any other debt you have, like student loans or credit card debt. At CNET, we recommend the 28/36 rule: Allocate no more than 28% of your pre-tax monthly income toward housing-related expenses and keep your total monthly household debt below 36% of your gross income.
CNET’s mortgage calculator can give you a good idea of what your future mortgage payments might look like based on a few specifics, like your credit score, projected down payment and interest rate.
Read more: How Much House Can I Afford?
Between 2020 and 2022, home prices saw double-digit growth. In 2023, the pace of growth slowed but prices were still up around 3% on an annual basis. Forecasts from Redfin and Realtor.com show home prices easing in the second half of 2024, but not dramatically — between 1% and 1.7%.
“I don’t predict many bargains out there because you don’t go from zero inventory to an overflow of available homes on the market, which is when you would see a substantial price drop,” said Dottie Herman, vice-chair at Douglas Elliman Real Estate. That means we won’t see any major home price declines in 2024, according to Herman.
But what real estate is doing on a national level might not reflect what’s happening in your neck of the woods. Home prices and housing supply vary by city and state, so it’s always worth looking at less expensive markets. In markets where inventory is especially tight, like New York, prices are expected to increase by 3% in 2024. Meanwhile, prices in the Austin, Texas, metro area are projected to fall by around 12%.
Many prospective buyers are sitting on the sidelines as they wait for mortgage rates to fall and affordability to improve. As mortgage rates inch lower over the course of 2024, experts expect that pent-up homebuying demand will lead to increased competition.
“If 2024 becomes a turnaround year for housing, my suggestion would be to get all of your financing straightened out and in shape, and then start looking right away before the weather changes and you are joined by competition,” said Herman. “That’s when bidding wars start, so you want to be ahead of them.”
Buying sooner rather than later, if you have the option, could grant you more negotiating power while the pace of home sales is still slow, according to Afifa Saburi, capital markets analyst at Veterans United Home Loans.
Limited housing inventory is directly related to the lack of home sales: Because the majority of current homeowners have mortgage rates below 5%, they haven’t been eager to list their homes and give up their bargain interest rates for today’s higher rates.
While experts are split on how much the inventory of existing homes will increase in 2024, there is a silver lining: New construction. “Single-family construction has offered relief from scarce existing inventory conditions over the last year,” said Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com.
If supply is limited in your area, consider what new-home construction is (or will be) available this year. Buying a newly constructed home comes with a few benefits. For starters, a new home will be move-in ready and likely more energy-efficient than an older home.
Brand-new homes can often be more affordable. As a way to incentivize buyers, many home builders have been offering discounts and rate-buydowns — when you (or a seller) pay money upfront to a lender in exchange for a lower interest rate. Experts say those incentives will continue into 2024.
The right real estate agent can make a big difference in your homebuying journey. You want someone with good communication skills, connections and experience, but the most important thing is an agent with in-depth knowledge of your market who can help you develop the right approach, said Joseph Castillo of Compass Real Estate.
An agent familiar with your area can tell you how realistic your budget is or even point you to more affordable neighboring areas. Start by contacting several local real estate agents to discuss your needs and concerns before settling on one.
If cost continues to be a barrier, see if you qualify for government-backed loans or down payment assistance programs.
“While increased demand is pushing up home prices, there are loan options and grant programs for those who may be able to afford monthly mortgage payments but struggle with the upfront costs,” said Vernon.
FHA loans, VA loans and USDA loans tend to offer lower credit score and down payment requirements than conventional loans. States also provide different types of housing assistance, either through grants or interest-free loans. Check with your state or local housing authority, real estate agent or lender to find out what you may qualify for.
Read more: These 8 First-Time Homebuyer Programs Can Save You Money on Your Mortgage
No matter what’s happening in the market, one step you should never skip is shopping around for mortgage lenders. Researching and comparing offers from multiple lenders will help you find someone aligned with your financial picture and save you a lot of money on your mortgage.
Mortgage interest rates and fees vary widely across lenders. That’s why experts recommend getting at least three loan estimate forms from different lenders to compare the cost of borrowing and potentially negotiate a lower mortgage rate or better loan terms.
If 2024 isn’t your year to buy a home, that’s OK. You can do plenty of things while you wait to put yourself in a better position when you’re ready to buy.
Improve your credit score. Your credit score is one of the main factors lenders consider when determining whether you qualify for a mortgage and at what interest rate. The minimum credit score for conventional loans is 620, but to qualify for the lowest rates, you’ll want to aim for closer to 740. Paying your credit cards on time (ideally, in full) and staying below your credit limit are great places to start.
Pay down debt. Lenders also take into account your debt-to-income ratio, or DTI. Paying down debt will lower your DTI, which means you’ll be able to borrow more — and at a better rate. As an added (and significant) bonus, it will also relieve a major financial burden and give you more room to save for long-term goals, like your down payment.
Save for a down payment. It can take a long time to save up enough cash for a down payment, but you can start small with weekly or monthly savings goals. Consider stowing your cash in a high-yield savings account or certificate of deposit (if you don’t plan to buy in the immediate future) to take advantage of compounding interest.
Experts are optimistic that a combination of falling mortgage rates and slightly lower home prices will give homebuyers more options than last year. But a variety of other issues — like low inventory — are weighing on affordability. Ideally, the affordability crisis will ease and the housing market will stabilize, but that is unlikely to happen in just one year. Though 2024 might not seem like the best year to buy a house, the perfect time should be determined by your financial circumstances and long-term goals.
“Buyers often ask me if it’s the right time to make a purchase. It is, but only if you’re prepared,” said Castillo.
Source: cnet.com
Mortgage rates ticked up last week after weeks of declines while applications for home loans dropped in a sign that the housing market continues to struggle despite some recent signs of optimism.
The 30-year fixed rate inched closer to 7 percent for the week ending December 29, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Meanwhile, mortgage applications tumbled by more than 9 percent from two weeks earlier, lenders said.
“Markets continued to digest the impact of slowing inflation and potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, helping mortgage rates to stay at levels close to the lowest since mid-2023,” Joel Kan, MBA’s deputy chief economist, said in a statement shared with Newsweek on Wednesday.
The 30-year fixed mortgage ended 2023 at 6.76 percent, more than a percentage point lower than the peak of nearly 8 percent in October, he said.
“The recent decline in rates has given the housing market some cause for optimism going into 2024, but purchase applications have not yet picked up in response, with the overall level of purchase activity 12 percent lower than a year ago,” Kan said.
Economists say that activity in the housing market will ramp up if prices decline, which at the moment are elevated partly due to low supply. The existing homes market is still in the doldrums as sellers are reluctant to give up their low rates for new home loans that could cost them close to 7 percent in interest.
“The housing market has been hampered by a limited supply of homes for sale, but the recent strength in new residential construction will continue to help ease inventory shortages in the months in come,” Kan said.
Recent data shows that private residential construction moved up, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, to nearly $900 billion in November—a jump of more than a percent from the previous month, helped by spending on single-family home building.
“November was the first month in over a year when single-family construction spending rose compared to the year prior,” Yelena Maleyev, KPMG’s senior economist, said in a note shared with Newsweek on Tuesday. “Builders have become more positive about the single-family market as mortgage rates have come down from recent peaks and revived buyers’ interests.”
In a sign that rates may be entering some level of uncertainty, as the market looks to see how many rate cuts the Fed will institute in 2024, the average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 6.26 percent from 6.41 percent in the week ending December 29.
Fed policymakers held rates at 5.25 to 5.5 percent last month for the third time in a row and have suggested that they may cut rates to a possible 4.6 percent in 2024. It’s unclear yet when such cuts could come.
But declining mortgage rates could give a boost to the housing market, with builders feeling optimistic in the new year.
“Construction activity remains robust as strong demand for housing and infrastructure remain a tailwind for builders,” Maleyev said, noting that elevated rates could be a challenge for the sector in 2024. “Spending is expected to end the year on a high, with lower mortgage rates helping revive activity in the housing market.”
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
From high prices to low inventory, potential home buyers know it’s gnarly out there. But if you’re ready for homeownership, the long-term benefit of buying often outweighs the pain of toughing out the search — even these days.
Think of it like your 5 a.m. spin class: You know it’s good for you, even if it takes grit (and leaves you feeling sore).
With some market savvy, you can make the most of today’s challenging conditions. Here’s your game plan for buying a house in 2024.
Buyers have been at the mercy of mortgage rates’ meteoric rise, holding on as the average 30-year fixed rate climbed from 3% to nearly 7% in 2022. In October 2023, rates topped 8% for the first time since 2000 — a surprise even many top economists didn’t predict. But throughout November, they dropped slightly, landing at an average of 7.03% for the week ending Dec. 7.
Higher interest rates make it more expensive to get a mortgage. To put that in perspective: Let’s say you can afford $1,800 per month in principal and interest. At a 3% interest rate, you could afford to borrow $426,900. But at a 7% interest rate, you could afford to borrow only $270,600. Why? Because you’d pay a full $156,300 more in mortgage interest with the higher rate.
For now, economic signals suggest more positive news for buyers in 2024. Dan Moralez, regional vice president at Dart Bank in Holland, Michigan, points to a cooling economy and the pause on Fed interest rate hikes. “All of that stuff really lends itself to mortgage rates getting better and the cost to borrow getting cheaper,” Moralez says.
Let’s set realistic expectations, though: No experts are forecasting a return to 3% rates anytime soon. More likely, we’ll see the 30-year mortgage rate decline modestly below 7% in the second half of 2024, according to forecasts from the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors.
Don’t let high rates keep you on the sidelines for too long. When rates go down, competition goes up — another reason there’s no time like the present to start house hunting.
And whichever way rates move in 2024, you’ll save money if you shop around. Aim to get an estimate from at least three mortgage lenders. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau estimates borrowers can save $100 per month (or more) this way. And look at the annual percentage rate, or APR, to understand the total cost of the loan, which includes fees and other charges.
With buyers wincing at high rates, some lenders are advertising “buy now, refinance later” offers. Others are offering temporary buydowns, where the buyer’s effective monthly payment is reduced for a year (or a few). Before signing up for a discount, ask questions to understand how it works. Each option could potentially save money, but Moralez says it could also be “smoke and mirrors” if the flashy deal is offset by higher fees.
“It’s one of those things where I tell folks, ‘There’s no free lunch, OK?’” he says. “You know, somebody is paying for it somewhere.”
The rate of existing home sales is the lowest it’s been in 13 years, according to October 2023 data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The current market has a 3.6-month supply of unsold home inventory, meaning it would take listed homes 3.6 months to sell at the current sales pace. A balanced market has a supply of five to six months.
So why aren’t sellers selling? Octavius Smiley-Humphries, a real estate agent with The Smiley Group in Apex, North Carolina, points to higher prices and the “rate lock-in effect.”
“At this point, you’d be paying either double your mortgage for the same price house that you have, or a similar mortgage if you’re trying to even downsize,” he says. “So I think the more intelligent buyer is kind of thinking, ‘What’s the benefit?’ unless you absolutely have to move.”
Some hope: Single-family construction permits are on the rise, with more issued in October 2023 than at any other time in the past year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, so we’ll see more new houses boosting supply soon. And despite larger shortages, 92% of markets have seen modest inventory growth over the last three months, according to a November 2023 report from ICE Mortgage Technology.
You can’t control who puts their house on the market. So focus on what you can change: your expectations.
Let go of the fantasy of finding the perfect home when a “good enough” home can get your foot in the door sooner. That’s especially true for first-time home buyers who are eager to build equity.
“Real estate has always been a really solid investment,” Smiley-Humphries says. “So what you essentially lose by waiting six months or a year could mean tens of thousands of dollars.”
For now, maybe you expand your search to include condos or townhouses. Maybe you settle for fewer bathrooms or a dated interior. Keep your chin up — even if you have to tolerate less square footage or weird linoleum floors for a while, you’ll have equity to remodel or sell in a few years.
Housing is the least affordable it’s been since 1984, according to a November 2023 report from ICE Mortgage Technology. Why? Home prices are growing faster than income, and on top of that, higher mortgage rates increase the cost of borrowing.
In October 2023, the median existing home sales price climbed to a record high of $391,800, according to the NAR. To buy a median-priced home at that time, buyers would need to shell out $2,567 per month just in principal in interest, ICE estimates. That’s another all-time high since ICE has been keeping track — and nearly double the median monthly payment of $1,327 just two years ago.
Until supply catches up to demand, prices are unlikely to fall. Realtor.com estimates prices will fall less than 2% next year. That’s another reason to jump in now: A big drop in prices could trigger more competition.
If you’re Zillow-stalking houses you can’t afford, stop. Instead, channel that energy toward your plan to shop for a house in real life — starting with setting a realistic budget.
First, talk to a financial advisor or use an online calculator to see how much house you can afford. Understand how mortgage lenders will determine your eligibility, including analyzing your credit score, cash savings and monthly debt payments.
Next, find a buyer’s agent who knows how far your budget can go in your local market. An experienced agent can advocate for you and help you snag a good deal.
One bargain-hunting tip: Start searching in the winter, suggests Ellie Kowalchik, a real estate agent who leads the Move2Team with Keller Williams Pinnacle Group in Cincinnati, Ohio.
“There are good houses on the market now that aren’t getting the attention they may get in the spring with more buyer activity,” she says. “Less competition is good for buyers.”
More than one in four homes are still selling for above list price, according to October 2023 data from the NAR: 28% of homes sold for above list price that month. Homes for sale spent a median of 23 days on the market and saw an average of 2.5 offers, a sign that competition remains tough.
“Limited housing inventory is significantly preventing housing demand from fully being satisfied,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said in a press release. “Multiple offers, of course, yield only one winner, with the rest left to continue their search.”
In general, first-time buyers come to the negotiating table with less cash than repeat buyers, reports the NAR. First-time buyers make a median down payment of 8%, while repeat buyers put down a median 19%.
And nearly one in three (29%) of sales were made in cash, reports the NAR, up slightly from 26% in 2022.
A good real estate agent can help you craft a strong offer, even if other buyers flash more cash.
Aziz Alhees, a real estate agent with Compass in Pasadena, California, has seen his share of wealthy investors making cash offers. He notes that they tend to bid below asking price since cash sales close faster. The promise of a quick closing is enough to get some sellers to turn down higher offers that ask for more time.
So Alhees competes on speed: With a mortgage preapproval and all other paperwork in hand, he prepares his buyers to close in 14 days.
“We’re not afraid of cash offers anymore,” he says.
On the flip side, if the sellers need more time to move out, a flexible closing timeline can sweeten some deals, too. But don’t waive the home inspection when you’re negotiating. It can be tempting, but you’re only hurting yourself if you later discover expensive problems.
It’s fair to feel bummed out about high costs and low inventory. That’s especially true for first-time buyers who have been putting off their search, only to see the market remaining rough.
The solution: Think long term. Holding out for lower rates likely means you’ll face steeper prices and more competition. So if you’re determined to buy, find a place that suits your needs and budget as-is. Expecting perfection often means setting yourself up for disappointment.
“Sometimes I have clients that think they’re going to hit a home run the very first house they buy,” Moralez says. “And a lot of times I tell clients, well, sometimes it’s OK to be happy just getting on base.”
Source: nerdwallet.com
Both of the key metrics for residential construction, housing permits, and housing starts, beat analysts’ expectations in October. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development said permits rose 1.1 percent compared to September while housing starts increased by 1.5 percent.
Permits were issued at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.487 million units compared to 1.471 million units in September. The September estimate was only a slight revision from the 1.473 million originally reported. Analysts polled by Econoday had estimated that permits would come in at 1.463 million units.
The permits issued in October 2023 were 4.4 percent fewer than the 1.555 million permits authorized in October 2022.
The annual rate of permitting for single-family houses was 968,000 units, 0.5 percent higher than the 963,000 units in September and an improvement of 13.9 percent year-over-year. Multifamily permits increased by 2.2 percent to 469,000 but dropped 27.9 percent compared to October 2022.
On a non-adjusted basis, there were 124,000 permits issued last month, 79,700 of which were for single-family houses, an improvement on the relative numbers in September of 116,700 and 76,500. Permits for the first nine months of 2023 total 1.252 million, down 13.8 percent from the same period last year. The 773,600 permits for single-family houses are a reduction of 10.6 percent from the same period last year and the 432,300 multifamily represent a decrease of 20.1 percent.
Privately-owned housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.372 million units compared to 1.346 million units in September, a downward revision from the 1.358 million units reported in October. Starts remained lower on an annual basis, in this case by 4.2 percent. Analysts had estimated that housing starts would be at a 1.350 million annual rate.
Single-family construction starts were at an annualized rate of 970,000 units, annualized, compared to 968,000 units in September and 858,000 units in October 2022, gains of 0.2 and 13.1 percent, respectively. Multifamily starts increased by 4.9 percent compared to September but were 31.8 percent lower year-over-year.
There were 115,400 residential construction starts in October, units 900 fewer than in September. Single-family starts were flat at 81,400.
Thus far in 2023, there have been 1.194 million residential units started, 11.3 percent fewer than by the end of October 2022. Single-family starts have declined from 884,200 to 790,600 and multifamily starts at 392,00 are down 12.4 percent.
Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) commented on the Census Bureau report. “Despite higher interest rates in October, the lack of existing home inventory supported demand for new construction in the fall. NAHB is forecasting improving conditions for single-family home building, as the 10-year Treasury rate has returned to near 4.5 percent, with an outright gain for single-family starts in 2024.” NAHB, however, is forecasting a decline for multifamily construction in 2024.
There were 122,200 homes completed in October, including 85,400 single-family houses and 36,000 multifamily units. Completions for the year-to-date total 1.190 million units, a 5.0 percent annual increase. Single-family completions are down 1.7 percent to 819,600 units but 361,000 multifamily units have come online, a 23.6 percent increase.
At the end of October, there were 1.674 million residential units under construction, 669,000 of which were single-family houses. There were an additional 281,000 permits outstanding, exactly half of which were for single-family units.
In the Northeast region, permits were 15.6 percent higher than in September and 12.5 percent above the October 2022 rate. Starts dropped by 14.5 percent from the previous month and 24.5 percent compared to a year earlier. Completions were 1.0 percent higher than the prior October.
The Midwest saw a decline in permits of 10.6 percent for the month and 21.8 percent year-over-year. Starts were 28.4 percent and 5.2 percent higher than the two earlier periods. Nine percent fewer units came online than in October 2022.
Permitting rose in the South by 3.1 percent but lagged the prior October rate by 5.3 percent. Construction starts fell 6.8 percent and 8.1 percent. Completions were down 1.7 percent on an annual basis.
There was a 1.7 percent dip in permitting in the West, but the rate rose 3.6 percent on an annual basis. Starts grew 12.5 percent from the prior month’s level and were 4.7 percent higher than in October 2022. Completions dropped 16.6 percent year-over-year.
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com
Warning that the housing market is contracting again as today’s mortgage rates hover near 8%, Wells Fargo economists wrote in a new analysis that rising borrowing costs “stand to tip the housing sector back into a recession.”
The “ominous” special commentary posted Thursday, according to a Wells Fargo news release, states prospects for a housing rebound are dimming as mortgage rates tighten their grip on the already sharp U.S. housing affordability issues.
Even though the economy has shown “a remarkable degree of resilience” this year — and a strong labor market along with moderating inflation has “raised hopes that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession — the same can’t be said for the real estate market. Unfortunately, not every sector of the economy has been as sturdy in the face of rising debt costs,” the Wells Fargo economic group wrote.
“After generally improving in the first half of 2023, the residential sector now appears to be contracting alongside the recent move higher in mortgage rates,” they continued. “Although mortgage rates may gradually descend once the Federal Reserve begins to ease monetary policy, financing costs are likely to remain elevated relative to recent norms.”
The commentary comes days after Goldman Sachs analysts also issued a downgraded housing forecast, predicting “higher for longer” mortgage rates will continue to squeeze home inventory and yet home prices will stay in the green, though growth will be slight as sales slow even more.
It also comes a day after the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta posted an update to its Home Ownership Affordability Monitor, showing housing affordability sank to a “new record low” in August due to still stubbornly high prices and rising interest rates.
In yet another month of declines, the monitor index score sank to 67.3 in August with a national median home price of $377,500, a median income of $76,621, a total median monthly payment of $2,848 and an interest rate of 7.1%. The Atlanta Fed estimated the annual total payment share of median income to be 44.6%, well over the recommended 30% of income for housing costs.
Compare that score to a score of 112.3 in November 2012, when the median home price was $197,333, median income was $52,161, and the interest rate was 3.4%.
This latest affordability reading was back in August, before interest rates inched closer to 8%, hitting that threshold last week before tipping down only slightly, according to Mortgage News Daily.
This “higher for longer” interest rate climate is likely to “not only weigh on demand, but could also constrain supply by reducing new construction and discouraging prospective sellers carrying low mortgage rates from listing their homes for sale,” Wells Fargo economists wrote.
The bank’s analysts also downgraded their home price forecast, though now they expect a “slightly softer pace of home price appreciation in the years ahead.” Because high interest rates are expected to continue to both dampen demand and constrain supply, they predict those dynamics will continue to buoy home prices slightly.
“Higher financing costs are likely to both weigh on demand and constrain supply, which will allow home prices to maintain a positive trajectory,” Wells Fargo economists wrote, predicting the S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index to increase 1.8% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024.
The economic group also predicts a “downshift” in new residential construction starts, with multifamily permits already declining sharply in recent months.
“The recent drop in home builder confidence is evidence that single-family construction may begin to moderate as higher mortgage rates test builders’ ability to offer rate buy-downs to attract new buyers,” they wrote. “That noted, a structural shortfall of single-family supply will likely continue to boost new development.”
Source: deseret.com
Large metro core counties posted the lowest annual single-family home building growth rate at -24.8%. All large and small metro areas reported double-digit negative growth rates, while rural markets (defined as micro counties and non-metro counties) recorded single-digit negative growth rates.
The share of single-family building has declined most notably in large metro areas (defined as core, suburban outlying), with these areas representing just 49.8% of all single-family building in the quarter. This share is a data series low, and it comes after seven consecutive quarters of decline. Single-family building in small metro core and outlying counties represented 38.4% of all building during the quarter, while 11.7% of single-family building occurred in micro and non-metro/micro counties during Q2.
Despite the declines, over the past four years, rural markets have shown resilience, as the single-family home building market share has risen from 9.4% at the end of 2019 to 12% earlier in 2023.
Alicia Huey, the NAHB chairman, also believes that single-family construction has bottomed out.
“Single-family production should register growth in the months ahead as the Federal Reserve nears the end of its tightening cycle and mortgage rates begin to stabilize,” Huey said.
In the second quarter of 2023, the multifamily sector reported positive annual growth rates in just three markets, rising 26.6% in non-metro/micro counties, 15.9% in large metro outlying counties and 3.1% in micro counties. Large metro core counties reported the lowest multifamily production growth rate, with a yearly drop of 10.6%. This is the third quarter in a row where this geographic area posted the lowest year-over-year growth rate. Since the start of the pandemic in Q1 2020, the market share of multifamily building in large metro counties has fallen from 42.2% to 37.4% in Q2 2023.
After rising for the first seventh months of the year, homebuilder confidence declined in August, dropping six points from July to a reading of 50, as builders cited rising mortgage rates and a shortage of construction workers for reasons for the decline.
Source: housingwire.com
Mortgage rates are mostly holding steady despite ongoing economic headwinds. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.39% this week, Freddie Mac reports. It’s a rate home buyers are getting used to.
“Economic crosscurrents have kept rates within a ten-basis-point range over the last several weeks,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “After the substantial slowdown in growth last fall, home prices stabilized during the winter and began to modestly rise over the last few months. This indicates that while affordability remains a hurdle, home buyers are getting used to current rates and continue to pursue homeownership.”
Steady rates are instilling more confidence in home buyers who are turning to new construction for greater inventory options. Home builders also report feeling more optimistic about the outlook for new-home sales and resuming more single-family construction.
Mortgage rates, though moderating, may experience slight fluctuations from week to week, but economists predict they’ll fall over the remainder of the year. “With inflation easing further and the Federal Reserve expected to pause its rate hikes soon, mortgage rates will stabilize near 6% in the second half of the year,” says Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research for the National Association of REALTORS®.
With a 6.4% mortgage rate, the typical home buyer can afford to purchase a home up to $380,000—just 2% less than the national median home price—if the buyer puts 20% down, Evangelou notes. About 45% of listings fall within this price range, she adds.
Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending May 18:
Source: nar.realtor
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Wed, Aug 2 2023, 8:26 AM
“If you have no interest in banking, you are not a loan.” (Best said out loud to a 6th grader.) Cutting edge humor aside, this morning I head to Orlando for the FAMP event, in a state where there are a total of 186 banks operating with 4162 branches. Some of the conversation will be about Freddie Mac earning $2.9 billion in the 2nd quarter (how’d your company do?). Banks… Last Friday we saw something we haven’t seen for a while: a bank closure. “Heartland Tri-State Bank of Elkhart, Kansas, was closed by the Kansas Office of the State Bank Commissioner, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver… the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Dream First Bank, National Association, of Syracuse, Kansas…” While we’re on Agency and government news, the Federal Reserve’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey found that banks have tightened credit standards for both business and consumer clients, and they expect to tighten further through the rest of the year. “…a less favorable or more uncertain economic outlook, an expected deterioration in collateral values, and an expected deterioration in credit quality of [commercial real estate] and other loans.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and is sponsored by Candor. Candor’s patented automated underwriting decision engine, CogniTech, is a state-of-the-art, 100 percent machine platform that can handle infinite loan scenarios. Listen to an interview with Polunsky Beitel Green attorney Andy Duane on recent capital rules plans changes by U.S. bank regulators.)
Lender and broker software, products, and services
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Click links, ask questions later. The most common attack vector for a cyberattack is the human element. It’s what phishing emails, phone calls and text messages all have in common. Yet while it’s the weakest link, the human element could be your organization’s greatest prevention layer if trained correctly. In an industry that incentivizes people based on sales goals, every mortgage lead has bottom line potential. And in the current market, it’s only human to go after leads without stopping to consider their legitimacy. But recent data shows just how risky clicking without thinking can be. According to ISACA, in 2022 social engineering (tricking humans) was the #1 attack vector, and even the best teams are vulnerable. Learn how to do a better job at testing and training your team to identify legitimate leads. Talk to Richey May’s cybersecurity experts for help assessing and defining your cybersecurity training needs.
“Attention Mortgage Technology Companies! Discover the secrets to thriving in this competitive market with our free white paper, tailored specifically for you. Written by Seroka Brand Development, the mortgage industry’s leading marketing and public relations company, this exclusive guide reveals top marketing and PR strategies for 2023. As the industry faces its current set of challenges, effective yet cost-conscious marketing is more crucial than ever for companies like yours, competing for every opportunity. Learn six impactful ways to reach your target market and secure success through the rest of 2023 and beyond. Don’t miss out on this invaluable resource: download your FREE white paper now.”
“AFR Wholesale® (AFR) is teaming up with financing experts from Fannie Mae for the next session of our Why Wait Live Webinar Series! Please join us Wednesday, August 9th at 2 PM EST, where we will be highlighting what you need to know about manufactured home financing. AFR has been a leading expert in manufactured homes for over 25 years. With this added knowledge and proven experience, we’ll be an extension of your team to help the prospects in your portfolio to become borrowers. Over this series, AFR has been discussing affordable financing solutions that together will help us provide homeownership opportunities to more families. Register Today! This is a live webinar, and a recording will not be provided. Sign up today and don’t miss it! If you are currently a partner of AFR, start utilizing these programs right away! Contact AFR by going to afrwholesale.com, email [email protected] or call 1-800-375-6071.”
“Why are some lenders and LOs thriving in this market? Because they know there are still 1st-time buyers and people seeking DPA! Stairs Financial aggregates DPA information and matches homebuyers, often CRA-eligible, to lenders/programs on our platform to help lenders create customers for life. Through Stairs, borrowers are educated about loan programs and terms to better understand their loan options before connecting with our lender network. Stairs is launching in Texas and quickly expanding nationwide with licenses in 40 states. We’re partnering with national, regional, and local lenders in every market to ensure every aspiring homeowner gets the help they need. By seamlessly connecting to your PPE, Stairs can show borrowers your rates, loan terms, and DPA program options. Further, we can deliver mortgage leads to your CRM or lead management system. If your firm wants to help more 1st-time buyers achieve their dream of homeownership, contact Mike Romano.”
“This seems too good to be true” is what we hear pretty often when it comes to QuickQual. Lucky for you, it is true. Loan officers issue QuickQuals right from within the LOS and give borrowers and Realtors the ability to run payments and update pre-approval letters within guardrails you set. Check out QuickQual by LenderLogix and they’ll text a demo right to your phone!
Warehouse/liquidity programs
If you’re heading to California for Western Secondary, carve out time to meet with the team from Flagstar Bank. At a time when banks are downsizing or leaving the warehouse business altogether, Flagstar remains firmly committed to the mortgage space. They’re the second largest warehouse lender with $119 billion in assets, offering the strength, stability, and best-in-class service you’ve been looking for. Flagstar warehouses most loan types, including conventional, non-QM, and construction, and offers MSR, servicer advance, and EBO financing solutions. Their warehouse platform is flexible enough for 400+ warehouse clients of all sizes to fund quickly and easily. While you’re at the conference, talk to Flagstar about their experienced Specialized Mortgage Banking Solutions team to find out if they can help streamline operations and provide greater value for cash balances. With 35 years of experience, Flagstar is a trusted lending partner ready to unlock a world of opportunities for your business. Contact Jeff Neufeld or Patti Robins today to discuss what Flagstar can do for you.
“If you’re attending the California MBA Western Secondary Market Conference in Dana Point, make sure to include Axos Bank’s Warehouse Lending Team in your agenda. Our team will be available to discuss strategies and showcase how our diverse array of Agency, Jumbo, and Non-QM products can provide you with the flexibility and liquidity needed to become a top producer in today’s market. With our expanded portfolio programs and extended cutoff times (6:15 p.m. ET), achieving success has never been easier. To secure a meeting time, simply reach out to Eric Nelepovitz and Justin Castillo via email, or if you have any questions, feel free to contact the Warehouse Lending team at 888-764-7080. Don’t miss out on this opportunity to elevate your business to the next level.”
The only thing constant is change
Independent mortgage banks and credit unions aren’t the only entities who originate residential loans. Banks have been in the news!
Grizzled industry vet Ken Sonner, showing his age, noted, “The ‘Banc of California buying PacWest’ deal is very interesting. A $10BB bank tries to swallow a $40BB bank? Kinda like GreenPoint buying Headlands.” Don’t forget that Norwest bought Wells Fargo but kept Wells’ name.
And then there’s this story: “Donald Trump’s business empire faced a potential crisis after he left the White House and his longtime accounting firm warned not to rely on his past financial statements. But Axos Bank, an online-only financial firm headquartered in San Diego, soon agreed to loan him $225 million, stabilizing his finances.”
In general, do you think anything is permanent in residential lending? How many of 2008’s top 20 are still in the game? Wells Fargo, Chase, Bank of America, Countrywide Financial, Citi, Residential Capital LLC, Wachovia, SunTrust Mortgage, US Bank Home Mortgage, PHH Mortgage, Washington Mutual, Taylor, Bean, & Whitaker, Flagstar Bank, AmTrust Bank, National City Mortgage, ING Bank, BB&T Mortgage, First Horizon Home Loans, Franklin American Mortgage Company, and IndyMac.
How about in 2018?
Wells Fargo, Chase, Quicken Loans, PennyMac Financial, United Wholesale Mortgage, Bank of America Home Loans, U.S. Bank Home Mortgage, Caliber Home Loans, Amerihome Mortgage, loanDepot.com, Flagstar Bank, Freedom Mortgage, Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp., Guaranteed Rate Inc., SunTrust Mortgage, Nationstar Mortgage, Citizens Bank, Guild Mortgage, Stearns Lending LLC, and Navy Federal Credit Union.
Recognize some ghosts?
Capital markets: rates, as always, up some, down some
Yesterday was yet another volatile day in rates and MBS as rates staged another breakout to higher yields after shrugging off month-end buying and some weak data. While volatility remains elevated it also remains range-bound, and sentiment is that the Fed is finally finished with its historically aggressive pace of tightening.
On the data front, we received a weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing survey (Institute for Supply Management) for July as the manufacturing economy continues to contract. New Orders improved, and pricing pressures continue to fall. Supply delivery times decreased. Overall, the news on pricing should be good for the Fed, as it looks like its tightening policy is having the desired effect. There was also a smaller than expected increase in June Construction Spending (actual 0.5 percent) after increasing an upwardly revised 1.0 percent in May. Residential spending continues to be powered by new single-family construction to meet demand that cannot be satisfied through the existing home market.
Ahead of Friday’s payrolls report, job openings were 9.6 million at the end of June, according to the JOLTS report. Hires decreased to 5.9 million, with losses experienced in finance and manufacturing. The “quits” rate, which tends to forecast wage inflation, decreased to 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent in June and 2.7 percent a year ago. The jobs market remains exceptionally tight but continues to show incremental signs of weakening. Job openings have fallen 20 percent since the Fed began tightening policy in March 2022, even with the unemployment rate trending sideways. Price growth still elevated and a pullback in demand for workers ongoing, a “soft landing” remains far from assured, but this is an encouraging step toward inflation subsiding without a recession.
Today’s economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications decreasing 3.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from MBA. We’ve also received ADP employment (324k, nearly twice as strong as expected! We’ll learn the U.S. Treasury details of the Quarterly Refunding (3-year notes, 10-year notes, and 30-year bonds) where we can expect amounts to increase from previous auctions in the face of a Fitch downgrade of U.S. debt. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Tuesday and the 10-year yielding 4.04 after closing yesterday at 4.05 percent; the 2-year is at 4.90, showing no impact of Fitch’s opinion of U.S. debt. Much ado about nothing?
Jobs and transitions
“FLCBank is looking for seasoned Wholesale Account Executives in the northeast, southeast, central, and northwest regions. If you are looking to make a move and join a company with a tenured culture of collaboration, team-based success, and the security of working for a federally chartered national bank, then it’s time to call Bob Eisendrath, Strategic National Account Manager (414.350.3986). FLCBank is an agency-approved lender, offering a suite of Jumbo products with IO, fixed, and ARM options, as well as bank portfolio products like bridge loans. Our AEs work with Brokers, Non-Delegated Correspondents and have the opportunity to offer warehouse lines to your customers. FLCB cultivates a fun team environment where both sales and the operations staff are passionate about delivering exceptional customer experience with every loan. We offer competitive compensation, an energized culture, and seasoned operations and support staff. FLCBank is an Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action Employer.”
Do you have what it takes to be a mortgage superstar? Do you want to work with a lender that is leading the way in using AI to revolutionize the mortgage industry? If so, you need to check out Stockton Mortgage, a proud adopter of Lender Toolkit and its revolutionary solution, AI Underwriter™, which automates and applies underwriting conditions in 90 seconds or less. With just one click, you can review credit reports, income, assets, appraisals, loan data, fraud reports and more. Stockton Mortgage is using AI Underwriter to boost its productivity, quality, compliance, and find issues earlier in the process, delivering faster communication to Stockton’s customers. Stockton is looking for talented and ambitious professionals to join its team and grow with others on the team. If you’re ready to take your career to the next level and be part of the tech future of mortgage lending, visit Stockton’s website or contact the team today.
“Security National Mortgage Company (SNMC) has announced that Austin Jacks has joined the Company to serve as its Chief Marketing Officer. Mr. Jacks has over a decade of mortgage industry marketing experience focused on creating marketing products and building teams to enable loan originators to thrive. Mr. Jacks most recently served as the field marketing manager for Nations Lending. Joel Harward, SNMC’s SVP, stated, “Austin’s approach to modern marketing and his extensive experience will help us elevate awareness of the Company’s brand and expand its market share. His passion for marketing, strategic focus, and creativity will make him a great addition to the SNMC team. We are confident that Austin will play a key role in SNMC’s continued growth and success.” If you are interested to find out why Austin Jacks joined SNMC and why “It is Better Here”, please check us out here.”
How many ads for mortgages have you seen like this ad for mobile homes?
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Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com
Builders are shifting their focus to smaller, taller, and off-site homes as a response to high interest rates, financing costs and softer home buying demand, Zillow economist Orphe Divounguy said in a recent blog post.
An analysis of the Census Bureau‘s Survey of Construction 2022 microdata showed that builders started building smaller, attached homes – with more stories and fewer bedrooms — than they had in previous years. They also started a larger share of homes off-site than they had in the past.
Meanwhile, the typical American family size is shrinking and many older Americans will likely be looking to downsize, feeding into the shift to smaller homes. According to Divounguy, the trend looks sticky.
New construction projects of standalone (or “detached”) homes declined by 12% in 2022 from 2021, while starts of “attached” single-family homes, like condos and townhouses, continued to increase, rising 2.9% over that same span.
Compared to pre-pandemic levels, single-family home starts in 2022 exceeded 2019’s starts by 14.3%. While detached homes make up the large majority of new single-family home construction, this growth from pre-pandemic levels was more concentrated in attached homes. More than 37% more attached single-family homes began construction in 2022 compared to 2019, and detached single-family construction starts increased by just 11% during the same period.
Starts of single-family homes with fewer than three bedrooms increased by 9.5% in 2022 from 2021 while construction on homes with three bedrooms or more fell by 13.1% over that same span. Divounguy attributed this to builders responding to worsening affordability conditions for potential first-time home buyers.
New homes also got taller but smaller. Single-family homes more than two stories tall saw construction starts increase by 4.9% while starts of single-family homes with two stories or fewer fell by 10.8%. These new homes also shrunk relative to lot size in 2022, reversing a trend that had formed over four years. As costs increased and housing demand dipped in 2022, the size of the median new single-family home fell by 100 square feet (-4.3%), while the median lot size was unchanged. As a result, the ratio of the two measures decreased.
Starts of such off-site homes saw a 23.9% annual increase in 2022 from 2021. Comparatively, more traditional on-site single-family home construction projects saw a 11.2% decline over that same period. Compared to pre-pandemic 2019 levels, off-site starts of single-family home building projects were up 18.8% in 2022, while on-site projects were up 14.0%.
Source: housingwire.com