Mortgage rates rose this week as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note inched up. As of Monday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was about 4.25%, according to Tradeweb, up from 3.86% at the end of last year.
As a result, HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed the average 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans at 7.16% on Tuesday, up from 7.07% one week earlier. At the same time one year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.53%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.51% on Tuesday, up from 6.5% one week earlier.
“The 10-year yield is up a few basis points this week as the market gets ready to digest the next big piece of economic data: Friday’s PCE inflation report. As the 10-year yield moves higher, mortgage pricing should move with it, but the mortgage spreads are having a good week, which is encouraging news,” HousingWire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami said.
“The following week, we have jobs week with four economic labor reports for the bond market to focus on.”
As of March 22, there were 513,000 single-family homes unsold on the market, up 1.1% from the week prior and up 24% from the same week one year ago. At the same period last year, inventory was declining, according to Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research.
“We’ll finish the year with over 600,000 homes on the market unless rates reverse and fall quickly,” Simonsen wrote on Monday.
More inventory on the market means that more sales can take place. But, on the other hand, it can also mean that demand is weakening.
“The longer mortgage rates stay higher, the more inventory will grow closer to the old levels,” Simonsen wrote. “If you’re a homebuyer and you’re waiting for mortgage rates to fall before you swoop in for a deal, recognize that even slightly lower rates will spur demand more than supply so inventory will start falling and selection and competition will be worse.”
This has kept single-family permits from falling and kept construction workers employed to build and finish the backlog of single-family homes in the pipeline.
We obviously can’t say that the apartment marketplace and permits are back to recession lows.
So, for now, homebuilders can still keep construction workers employed in the single-family housing market as they slowly work through the backlog of homes.
From Census: New Home Sales: Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
As we can see below, new home sales aren’t booming. We are still at the level seen in the 1990s, so no record-breaking demand is happening here like we saw in the run-up to 2005, which took new home sales up to 1.4 million. However, slow and steady wins the race.
For sale inventory and months’ supply: The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 463,000. This represents a supply of 8.4 months at the current sales rate.
Here’s my model for understanding the builders:
When supply is 4.3 months and below, this is an excellent market for builders.
When supply is 4.4-6.4 months, this is just an OK market for builders. They will build as long as new home sales are growing.
When supply is over 6.5 months, the builders will pause construction.
This housing cycle is unique due to the historic backlog of homes the builders still have, so they will be mindful to ensure they can sell those homes once they’re completed units. If the original contract buyer can’t buy now, they must ensure they can sell that new home to a new buyer. As you can imagine with 8.4 months of supply, don’t expect the builders to be building single-family homes in a big fashion. They will go nice and slow because they’re not the March of Dimes; they’re here to make money.
One of the things I like to do is break down the monthly supply data into subcategories. People sometimes believe that the monthly supply of new homes means live, completed homes ready to buy, but that isn’t the case. In this report:
1.5 months of the supply are homes completed and ready for sale — about 85,000 homes.
4.9 months of the supply are homes that are still under construction — about 272,000 homes
1.9 months of the supply are homes that haven’t been started yet — about 106,000 homes
As shown below, we only have 85,000 completed homes ready for sale.
This report had some minor positive revisions to the previous month, so to keep things simple, as long as mortgage rates don’t head toward 8%, new home sales have the backdrop to grow sales if rates are in the 6% range because they can buy down rates to a sub-6% level to move homes. It gets much more expensive for them to do this at 8%.
Generally, it helps to save up to 20-25% of a house’s sales price. However, factors like geographical location, economic climate, real estate interest rates, and global events will influence how much money you’ll need to buy a house.
Key Takeaways:
An ideal down payment is 20% to 25% of a home’s value.
USDA and VA home loans traditionally don’t require down payments.
If you make a down payment below 20%, you may be required to get private mortgage insurance.
How much money do you need to buy a house? That cost depends on numerous factors like inflation and real estate trends. According to the Census, homes sold for a median price of $420,700 in January 2024.
Thankfully, you don’t need to pay off that amount all at once. A down payment that’s 20% to 25% of a home’s value can help you secure a property. Even if you don’t have the funds to make a sizeable down payment, low and no-down-payment mortgage options are available.
Below, we’ll share our expertise to help you learn all about loans and mortgage options. We’ll also answer several common questions and share helpful tools, like Credit.com’s mortgage calculator.
All Costs Associated with Buying a House
Spend enough time shopping around for houses, and you’ll learn very quickly that a property’s sales price isn’t the only expense you’ll have to pay. Below, we’ll cover down payments, earnest money deposits, and other factors that determine the real cost of a home.
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Down Payments for Different Mortgage Options
According to the United States Census Bureau, 661,000 new homes were sold in January 2023. Most homebuyers don’t pay off their properties in full from the get-go. Instead, they cover a portion of the home’s cost with a down payment, then gradually pay off the remaining value via monthly mortgage payments.
“How do home mortgage rates work?” and “What types of mortgages am I eligible for?” are common questions for first-time homebuyers.
Below, we’ll discuss four mortgage options and break down how each of them works.
1. Conventional Mortgage
A conventional loan is a mortgage option that’s offered by a private lender instead of the government. Mortgage companies, credit unions, and banks offer conventional loans, though they might require a down payment between 20% and 25% of a property’s sales price.
Lenders might request that you purchase private mortgage insurance (PMI) if your down payment is less than 20%. PMI reimburses lenders if you don’t make your mortgage payments, and borrowers will have to pay for coverage annually.
2. USDA Mortgage
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers this unique mortgage to borrowers who live in rural areas. A USDA mortgage has no down payment requirement, and its interest rate is very competitive.
To qualify for a USDA loan, you need to:
Buy an eligible property. Your potential home has to be in an eligible rural area.
Meet income guidelines. To qualify for a USDA loan, your income can’t exceed a state-specific amount.
Use the home as your primary dwelling. You have to live on the property permanently.
Be a U.S. citizen, a U.S. national, or a qualifying resident alien. Foreign nationals not authorized to remain in the United States can’t get USDA loans.
You’ll also need to meet the lender’s credit requirements. On average, a credit score of 620 or more will qualify you for a government-backed USDA loan.
3. FHA Mortgage
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) offers this distinct government-backed mortgage. Borrowers can secure an FHA mortgage with a down payment as low as 3.5%.
Borrowers with very low credit scores might be eligible for an FHA loan, at the expense of having more strict loan limits and higher up-front costs.
To get an FHA loan, you need to meet the following requirements:
Primary residence. The house associated with your loan must be your primary residence. You can’t rent it out to others for profit.
FHA maximum limit. FHA loans can only apply to properties within a set price range. In 2024, the maximum FHA loan amount is $498,257 for single-family homes.
Debt-to-income ratio. To qualify for an FHA loan, you must spend a maximum of 43% of your income on housing costs and housing-related debt.
4. VA Home Loans
Veterans Affairs (VA) loans offer low credit requirements and come with no down payment restrictions.
Certain people qualify for VA loans, including:
Service members who’ve served for at least 90 days consecutively.
Veterans who’ve served at least 181 continuous days, depending on their deployment date.
National Guard members with six years of Active Reserve status or 90 consecutive days of active duty service.
Surviving spouses of veterans, including veterans who are missing in action or being held as a prisoner of war (POW).
Earnest Money Deposit
An earnest money deposit is a payment that buyers can place to demonstrate how serious they are about obtaining a property. Earnest money deposits are normally between 1% and 3% of a property’s sales price. This deposit is not the same as a down payment.
When you make an earnest money deposit, those funds are put into an escrow account. If the seller of a property closes on a deal with you, your earnest money deposit is then added to your down payment. If the seller doesn’t close on the deal with you, it’s possible to regain your earnest money deposit if contingencies are set in place.
Several common contingencies include:
Home inspection contingency: Buyers request to have an inspection conducted on a property. If problems are discovered, buyers can back out of a deal.
Home sale contingency: Buyers who might need to sell their current home can ask for extra time.
Insurance contingency: This is for buyers who may need time to obtain home insurance for a property.
Closing Costs
Closing costs include taxes, appraisals, home inspection costs, title costs, and attorney fees. They’re generally between 3% and 6% of your mortgage principal. Your mortgage principal is the amount you borrow—so the bigger your down payment, the less you’ll pay in closing costs.
Let’s use the $200,000 home above as an example. Consider these three 4% closing cost scenarios:
Your down payment is 10%, or $20,000, leaving a mortgage principal of $180,000. Your closing costs will roughly amount to $7,200.
You offer20%, or $40,000, as your down payment. Your mortgage principal is $160,000, and you’ll pay $6,400 in closing costs.
You apply for a mortgage with no down payment, so your mortgage principal is $200,000. Ultimately, you’ll pay $8,000 in closing costs.
Home-Buying Examples
Next, we’ll show you how to determine your down payment on a home with the previous loans as examples. Let’s imagine your dream home is on the market for $200,000.
Down payments for conventional mortgages are usually $10,000 – $40,000.
USDA mortgages normally don’t require down payments.
An FHA mortgage can cost as little as $7,000.
A VA home loan also doesn’t require a down payment.
USDA and VA home loan mortgage options have the lowest up-front costs for eligible borrowers. An FHA mortgage is less costly than a conventional loan, but interest rates will affect your total payments in the long term.
Financial Resource Ideas
Making a down payment can be challenging because you need a paper trail of your purchases. In most cases, you can’t use borrowed money for a down payment.
Conversely, we know several creative ways to come up with a down payment:
Profits earned from stock or bond sales
Filing for an IRA or 401(k) withdrawal
Paying with money from your checking or savings account
Cash earned from a money market account
Using funds from your retirement account
Monetary gifts
You can roll other funds, like your tax return or a security deposit refund, into your down payment, too.
How Much Money Should I Save Before Buying a House?
It’s important to look at the big picture when buying a house. You’ll need to pull together a down payment and closing costs, but you’ll also need to budget for removal costs, inspections, and repair fees.
A tool like a monthly budget template can put your common expenses into perspective and help you better understand how much house you can afford with your current income.
When Should I Seek Mortgage Relief?
“What happens if I miss a mortgage payment?” is another concern for new and long-time homeowners. First, know that your home won’t immediately be foreclosed on if you miss a payment. Foreclosure usually isn’t imminent unless you’ve missed two or three payments.
If your mortgage payments aren’t within reach, you can contact your lender and explain your specific situation. Seeking forbearance, which is a temporary pause on your payments, can also help you regain your bearings.
Prepare to Buy a Home with Credit.com
Knowing your credit score and understanding the elements that affect it can help you know what you need to do to prepare for loan opportunities.
Sign up for Credit.com’s ExtraCredit® subscription to check out 28 of your FICO® scores. Afterward, visit our mortgage rates page to get additional information.
Existing-home sales jumped unexpectedly in February to the highest monthly increase recorded in a year, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
Total existing-home sales — which includes previously owned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — increased 9.5% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.38 million in February. But sales are still down 3.3% from last year, when 4.53 million were recorded for February 2023, a NAR report released Thursday said.
“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Housing demand has been on a steady rise due to population and job growth, though the actual timing of purchases will be determined by prevailing mortgage rates and wider inventory choices.”
While Americans may want to buy houses, scarce supply, inflated prices and high mortgage rates have made home ownership unaffordable for many. Housing inventory in 2022 dipped to its lowest point since the Federal Reserve began tracking the data in 2016, while housing costs reached record highs.
AMERICANS ARE MAKING A MASS EXODUS FROM BIG CITIES ACCORDING TO CENSUS BUREAU DATA
Home prices and associated costs have followed the same inflationary trend as the rest of the economy since President Biden assumed office in January 2021.
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Compared to three years ago, the median price for existing-home sales has increased 25%, from $307,400 in January 2021 to $384,500 in February 2024, according to NAR data.
Existing home sales were 6.6 million when Biden took office and have since fallen to 4.38 million, according to Thursday’s report — a 34% decrease.
Not only are house prices up and supply down — home loan costs have skyrocketed. As of February, the monthly mortgage payment on an existing home was $2,001, according to NAR. That compares to a January 2021 reading of $1,009 and represents a walloping 98% increase.
US HOMEBUILDER SENTIMENT UNEXPECTEDLY RISES TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE JULY
Mortgage rates, which were an average 2.79% in January 2021, are now 6.78%.
For those who can’t afford a home or don’t wish to purchase one, rent is also more expensive. The average monthly rent for a two-bedroom apartment in the U.S. was $1,132 in January 2021. Now the average rent for an apartment that size has climbed 20% to $1,363 per month, according to data from apartmentlist.com.
Housing costs are expected to keep rising so long as there is strong demand and limited supply.
“Home sales dipped in February compared to a year earlier because not enough homes were on the market to meet demand,” explained Holden Lewis, a home and mortgage expert with NerdWallet.
HOW IT STARTED … HOW IT’S GOING: INFLATION UNDER BIDEN DRIVES UP COSTS FOR BREAD, BUTTER, CHICKEN
According to the NAR report, total housing inventory at the end of February — the number of homes listed for sale — was 1.07 million units, a 5.9% increase from January and 10.3% surge from 970,000 units one year ago.
“Just 1.07 million existing homes were for sale at the end of February. In the same month five years earlier, before the pandemic, there were 1.63 million homes on the market. Consequently, many more homes were sold back then,” Lewis said. “Because demand exceeds supply, buyers are competing with each other and driving up prices.”
Regional sales climbed in the West, South and Midwest, but remained unchanged in the Northeast, the report said. Year-over-year sales declined in all regions.
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Housing became more expensive in all major U.S. regions as well, according to NAR. The median existing-home price for all housing types in February was $384,500, an increase of 5.7% from February 2023, according to NAR.
“Due to inventory constraints, the Northeast was the regional under-performer in February home sales but the best performer in home prices,” Yun said. “More supply is clearly needed to help stabilize home prices and get more Americans moving to their next residences.”
Original article source: How it Started… How it’s Going: Home sales down, housing prices, mortgage rates up since Biden took office
Unstable borrowing conditions and a lack of affordable properties kept homeownership out of reach for many Americans in 2023. However, as the spring buying season approaches and signs that the market is recovering emerge, buyer sentiment is shifting. According to the National Association of Realtors®, national existing home sales in January 2024 were up year-over-year by 1.3%. Housing supply is also improving, with national inventory up by 3.1% year-over-year and 2% month-over-month.
These positive changes are setting the stage for an active spring market in the US. But as competition increases, so do home prices. The national median price for a single-family home in the US increased by 5.1% year-over-year in January to $379,100. This begs the question: where can prospective homebuyers find the best deals this spring?
To better understand where homebuyers can find pockets of affordability, Zoocasa analyzed home prices in 50 metropolitan statistical areas across the country to determine which are below the national median and where the most growth is happening. Median single-family home prices were sourced from the National Association of REALTORS® and are from Q4 2023, except the national median home price which is from January 2024.
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It’s usually said that the further outside of an urban center you go, the more affordable the home price. But of the 33 metropolitan statistical areas with a median home price below the national median, 15 have populations above 2 million, and five have populations above 5 million. The largest urban center with a median home price below the national median is Chicago, IL with a median home price of $343,300 in Q4 of 2023. Despite the city experiencing year-over-year price growth of 6.2%, Chicago’s median home price is still $35,800 below the national median.
Of the 50 markets we analyzed, Cleveland, OH came out on top for affordability. Cleveland’s median home price of $190,700 is an impressive $188,400 below the national median and is one of the few areas on our list where the median home price dropped from last year. Other markets where the median home price fell from last year include Myrtle Beach, SC, Houston, TX, San Antonio, TX, and Memphis, TN. Alabama’s capital, Montgomery, was the only other market on our list besides Cleveland with a median home price below $200,000. Homebuyers here can snag a home for approximately $185,700 below the national median.
It’s worth noting that five out of the six markets that experienced year-over-year price growth of more than 9% have home prices below the national median. These markets include Rochester, NY, Hartford, CT, New Haven, CT, Oklahoma City, OK, and Cincinnati, OH. This means that homebuyers of all price ranges, including those purchasing lower-priced homes, can still expect to build a significant amount of equity.
Markets that have experienced significant year-over-year price growth also present good investment opportunities. For instance, single-family homes in Philadelphia, PA have experienced year-over-year price growth of 7.2% and are still $20,100 below the national median price, making this sought-after city a good option for first-time investors. Kansas City, MO is an emerging market that would make a great first-time investment location. The city garnered a lot of media attention last year thanks to the city’s football team and frequent Taylor Swift visits, resulting in the median home price rising by 5.9% year-over-year. Despite its growing popularity, the median home price in Kansas City remains one of the lowest on our list at $315,800.
Homebuyers with their hearts set on a particular destination, especially one of the largest and most sought-after cities in the US, would benefit from considering smaller markets relatively close to their dream location. While the Big Apple might be out of reach for the average buyer, with a median home price of $659,200, New York’s second and third-largest cities still maintain affordable prices. Buffalo and Rochester have median home prices of $243,500 and $230,500 respectively. This is nearly $150,000 less than the national median, compared to New York City, where the median home price is more than $280,000 above the national median.
Though San Francisco, CA, and Los Angeles, CA have notoriously high home prices, at $1,251,000 and $884,400 respectively, California homebuyers still have affordable options. At just $26,600 above the national median, Fresno’s median home price is one of the more affordable options in California. But for savvy buyers looking for a deal in California, Bakersfield presents the best option with a median home price of $11,800 below the national median.
In Florida, motivated buyers on the hunt for affordable prices will have to look outside of the vibrant Miami market, which has a median home price more than $200,000 above the national median. Tampa’s median home price exceeds the national median by just $30,900, while Daytona Beach and Tallahassee offer more affordable housing, with median prices $16,700 and $57,100 below the national median, respectively.
Planning to enter one of these markets this spring? It’s important to speak with a local realtor who is familiar with your local real estate market. Give us a call today to discuss your home-buying plans.
Mortgage rates remained flat this week ahead of the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed the average 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans at 7.07% on Tuesday, down from 7.08% one week earlier. At the same time one year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.69%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.5% on Tuesday, up from 6.46% one week earlier.
Also on Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.3%.
“Everyone awaits the Fed’s meeting as the 10-year yield is at a critical level,” HousingWire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami said. “Last year when we were here with the 10-year yield, they went very hawkish with their statement, which sent mortgage rates toward 8%. Everyone is waiting to hear the Fed’s language because it has the potential to send rates much higher”
As of March 18, mortgage rates were 30 to 40 basis points higher than on Jan. 1, 2024, according to Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research.
As mortgage rates rise, the number of unsold homes tends to grow too as demand slows, leaving more inventory to sit on the market.
In the week ending March 15, there were 507,000 single-family homes on the market in the U.S., up 1.3% from a week prior, up 22% from a year ago, and up 105% from two years ago, according to data from Altos Research.
About 59,000 new single-family listings hit the market during the week ending March 8, 24% more than the same week in 2023. Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family home was $435,000, up 1.2% from a year ago.
Nearly all markets are showing inventory growth compared to last year, and the gains are expanding every week.
“If mortgage rates continue to rise to 7.5% or all the way to 8% again, we will see a pretty dramatic increase in unsold inventory,” Simonsen wrote on Monday. “But if rates finally fall, let’s say to 6.5% or lower, we’ll see consumers act very quickly and this inventory growth will reverse. Lower rates mean more buyer competition and less unsold inventory.”
As we started 2024, the signals in the U.S. real estate market were for inventory growth, sales growth and home-price growth across the U.S. At the time, I observed that even if mortgage rates stayed flat, the momentum seemed to be in the cards for broad, slow growth in the market.
However, mortgage rates didn’t stay flat. They climbed starting Jan. 1 and as of today, March 18, mortgage rates are 30-40 basis points higher than Jan. 1. Rates are off their recent peak of a couple weeks ago, but the latest economic news is still very strong, and the markets are growing less sanguine about interest rates easing significantly soon. Last year, the most common view was that mortgage rates would fall in 2024. That hasn’t materialized yet and many people are less optimistic that it will.
We’ll learn more about the future of interest rates at the Federal Reserve meeting this week. Although I don’t have any capacity to predict interest rates, I do know what happens to the housing market if rates rise or fall from here.
Of my initial expectations this year — rising inventory, rising sales rates, rising prices — only rising inventory remains clear at this moment as we finish Q1 with rising interest rates. I talk frequently about how rising rates creates rising inventory. That’s true again this week in the data. My other two expectations, slowly rising sales volume, and slowly rising prices, are less compelling. Let’s look at the data.
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Housing inventory
Looking at last week’s numbers:
There are 507,000 single-family homes on the market in the U.S.
That’s 1.3% more than a week prior, 22% more than a year ago, and 105% more than two years ago.
This week in 2022 was the last of the 3% mortgages. Inventory and rates rose in lockstep starting then.
There are 250,000 more homes on the market now then when we exited the pandemic boom in March 2022.
At this moment in 2022, interest rates and inventory had started rising quickly together as the pandemic boom ended. Mortgage rates were still in the 3s in early March 2022. By April they were in the 4s and by May they were in the 5s.
As mortgage rates rise, so do the number of unsold homes: Demand slows, inventory grows. As the economy remains surprisingly strong, mortgage rates are staying higher for longer than people predicted and as long as rates stay high, inventory will keep growing.
While inventory is growing across the country, some markets are way more impacted and already have more homes on the market than in 2019 or 2020 just before the pandemic. Nearly all markets are showing inventory growth over last year now and this is expanding every week.
The takeaway? If mortgage rates continue to rise to 7.5% or all the way to 8% again, we will see a pretty dramatic increase in unsold inventory. But if rates finally fall, let’s say to 6.5% or lower, we’ll see consumers act very quickly and this inventory growth will reverse. Lower rates mean more buyer competition and less unsold inventory.
New listings
Last week, 59,000 new single-family listings came to market. New listings volume continues to run ahead of last year and we see more sellers than last year. In fact, last week, after including the 16,000 immediate sales, there were 24% more new listings than the same week a year ago.
Last year was probably a record low for mid-March as we had very few sellers. For the rest of 2024 we should expect to have more sellers than a year ago, which is a very good thing. It was not that long ago that we had 70,000 or 80,000 new listings each week in March. We’re at 59,000 right now so the seller volume is climbing, but it’s still a third fewer than in recent years. So nationally there isn’t any sign of supply and demand getting out of balance.
Home prices
Demand is slow as mortgage rates continue to stay in the 7s. Supply is gradually increasing and demand is generally soft. As a result, some of the leading indicators for future home sales prices are starting to weaken.
One obvious place to watch this pricing transition is in the percent of homes on the market with price reductions. This week, 30.9% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s up half a percent this week and is now more than a year ago.
It’s totally normal to have around a third of homes on the market take a price reduction from the original list price before they sell. I’m going to watch the slope of this curve as this chart will show exactly how quickly the market reacts to higher mortgage rates. This is a pivotal time for measuring buyer demand.
A longer-term signal is the asking prices of all the homes on the market. The median price of single-family homes in the U.S. right now is $435,000. That’s up a notch from a week earlier and just 1.2% higher than a year ago.
Again, in January I expected this price data to be accelerating a little more quickly than it has. Home prices peak each year in June before receding a bit in the second half of the year. The question now is: will we surpass that all-time high this year or will it get delayed until 2025?
The median price of the new listings inched down to $419,900 last week and the new listings cohort is priced 5% higher than a year ago. The new listings are an excellent leading indicator for future home sales prices. The sellers and listing agents use all their collective wisdom and in aggregate they know exactly where to price the new listing. What this data tells us right now is that across the U.S. we have just narrowly increasing home prices this year so far. The signals are slightly weaker now than the data at the start of the year led me to expect.
Pending sales
This week saw 66,000 new contracts for single-family homes started. That’s 15% more than the same week a year ago. Since mortgage rates have been on the rise this year, the sales have been just barely above last year, so this week was probably a bit of an anomaly, but it is welcome nonetheless.
When we look at the price of the homes in contract but not yet sold — these are the pendings — we see that home sales prices are coming in about 4% higher than a year ago. The median price of all the homes in contract right now is $389,000. Home prices ended 2023 at 5-6% gains over the previous year, so home-price appreciation is compressing as mortgage rates have risen.
If rates stay steady around 7%, I don’t expect much price correction lower. If mortgage rates jump from here, I expect that we’ll see a step down in home prices like we saw in October of 2022.
In anticipation of Tuesday’s inflation reading, mortgage rates eased compared to last week.
HousingWire’s Mortgage Rate Center showed the average 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans at 7.08% on Tuesday, down from 7.17% one week earlier. At the same time one year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.83%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.46% on Tuesday, down from 6.5% one week earlier.
The relief in borrowing costs, however, may be short-lived as Tuesday’s strong inflation data is likely to reverse this trend. Consumer prices in February were up 3.2% from a year earlier, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“The growth rate of inflation has fallen a lot, and the Fed is going to cut rates three times this year,” HousingWire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami said. “This makes bearish American citizens mad because people who don’t want rate cuts or want the Fed to hike rates want to see the Fed create a recession. You can understand their anger with the economy still in expansion mode.”
As long as the economy is expanding, rates will stay elevated. Only a pivot by the Fed or a softening of labor data could change the status quo, Mohtashami added.
Housing inventory
For-sale inventory has been rising for two years despite elevated mortgage rates. Inventory is now 21% higher than the same time last year. Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research, wrote on Monday that the available inventory of homes on the market will continue to climb until mortgage rates start to decline.
According to Simonsen, the Fed’s eventual commitment to cut rates, along with cooling inflation and job markets, are giving homeowners reasons to sell.
In the week ending March 8, there were just over 500,000 single-family homes on the market in the U.S, up 0.5% from the previous week and up 21% from one year ago. Additionally, there were 100,000 more single-family homes on the market than there were in March 2023.
“Unless mortgage rates fall from here, then by July, we could have 40% more homes on the market than a year ago,” Simonsen wrote.
Disparities in inventory levels have surfaced at a regional level, with Gulf Coast markets witnessing a resurgence in supply levels that have surpassed pre-pandemic benchmarks. Northeastern and Midwestern markets, meanwhile, have been slower to emerge from pandemic-induced troughs.
The available inventory of unsold homes on the market was slightly more than 500,000 last week, 21% higher than it was a year earlier.
Moderation in mortgage rates led to a pickup in demand for residential real estate, but limited inventories across the country hindered actual home sales, the Federal Reserve reported in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts that was published Wednesday.
Several Fed districts reported that a dearth of for-sale inventory contributed to faster home price growth since January. The spring homebuying season, which got underway a bit earlier than usual, was off to a good start in districts like New York and Dallas.
“Should mortgage rates fall, demand for residential real estate would increase, encouraging buyers who had been waiting on the sideline to move forward with home purchases,” according to the Beige Book.
The outlook for future economic growth remained generally positive as economists, market experts and business organization leaders interviewed for the report noted expectations for stronger demand and less restrictive financial conditions over the next six to 12 months.
The Beige Book, which was compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco using information gathered on or before Feb. 26, does not reflect the most recent rise in mortgage rates, which have surpassed 7% on HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center.
The Beige Book is published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged when policymakers gather on March 19-20. The benchmark rate was last changed in July 2023, when it was raised to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated Wednesday that policymakers still need to gain “greater confidence” that the battle against inflation is conquered before cutting interest rates.
“We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle,” Powell said during testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. “If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.”
Following are excerpts of statements on housing conditions from the Federal Reserve districts, drawn from the newly released Beige Book.
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Boston: Residential Realtors expressed growing optimism as both property listings and pending home sales increased. Contacts cited modest declines in mortgage rates since last fall as a likely reason for buyers’ increased willingness to enter the market.
Although inventory levels remained low, listings increased by modest to significant margins around the First District in recent months, lending increased optimism for sales moving forward. Still, contacts emphasized that the number of units for sale stayed far short of what they considered a balanced market, and that a dearth of inventories had contributed to faster house price growth from 2022 to 2023.
New York: Housing markets strengthened as the spring selling season got underway a bit earlier than normal. While inventory generally remained exceptionally low, inventory in New York City has begun to normalize. Many buyers who were waiting for a reprieve in mortgage rates have started to return with the intention of refinancing later. Though mortgage rate lock-in continues to limit new listings, particularly in the New York City suburbs, listings have increased in upstate New York as people have continued to leave the area for warmer climates.
Still, with such limited inventory, home prices have continued to press higher. Bidding wars were prevalent in the New York City suburbs but have been more limited in upstate New York.
Philadelphia: The inventory of for-sale properties remained extremely low as it has since the pandemic began. But real estate agents noted that higher interest rates have severely limited new listings over the past year and were responsible for the significantly lower level of closings.
New-home builders continued to report steady sales at relatively strong levels, in part because of the lack of existing for-sale homes. Most expect their pipeline of contracts to keep construction busy through the year.
Cleveland: Residential construction contacts reported that demand increased as mortgage rates declined. But real estate agents indicated existing-home sales changed little because inventory remained low.
Looking ahead, homebuilders and real estate contacts anticipated that demand would increase should mortgage rates fall, encouraging some “customers [who had been] waiting on the sideline” to move forward with home purchases.
Richmond: Respondents noted an increase in listings and buyer activity, but the elevated mortgage rate made buyers more tentative on making home purchase decisions. Sales prices have flattened, but there were still multiple offers on many homes.
Days on market increased slightly but remained below historic averages. The home construction market was constrained as it was difficult to find land and to receive permitting for new developments. Residential construction costs started to moderate this period.
Atlanta: As mortgage rates retreated from cyclical highs, homeownership affordability improved throughout the district. But home sales in most major markets ended the year well below seasonal norms and remained significantly behind pre-pandemic levels. Potential buyers locked into historically low mortgage rates remained reluctant to move, and migration into the district moderated through 2023, resulting in diminished housing demand.
Existing-home inventory levels were also suppressed by the “lock-in effect,” resulting in flat to moderate price growth in many markets. Demand for newly constructed homes was boosted by the lack of existing homes and builders.
Chicago: Residential real estate activity was down moderately, although prices were steady overall. High interest rates and a low supply of existing homes for sale continued to hold back activity.
St. Louis: Residential real estate sales have slowed since our previous report. Contacts in Arkansas and Tennessee reported that the low end of the market continues to be strong, while contacts in Missouri and Southern Indiana reported higher-end homes selling better. Rental rates for residential real estate have remained unchanged since our previous report.
Minneapolis: Single-family development remained soft, with modest but spotty increases in some district markets compared with a year earlier. A Minnesota contact said that “consumers quite abruptly stopped spending discretionary income on larger home improvements.”
Dallas: Home sales rose during the reporting period, and contacts noted that the spring selling season was generally off to a good start. Cancellation rates were down, buyer incentives were less prevalent, and builders said they were raising prices slightly in some markets.
Outlooks were positive, although contacts cited economic and political uncertainty, diminished affordability and tight lending.
San Francisco: Real estate activity rose slightly overall. Residential construction strengthened. Demand for single-family homes picked up slightly, as mortgage rates, though still elevated, moderated a bit in recent weeks. To attract reluctant homebuyers, some homebuilders began offering variable-rate mortgages at below-market interest rates, which revert to market pricing after a year, at which point buyers are reportedly expecting rates to be lower.
FHA 203(k) loans provide funding to finance both a home’s purchase and the cost of repairing it. If you qualify, you can obtain one from an FHA-approved lender.
This type of loan is reserved for borrowers who intend to live in the home, not house-flippers or investors.
There are two types of 203(k) rehab loans: limited, for repairs less than $35,000, and standard, for more expensive projects.
When you buy a home, there are usually a few repairs to pay for. If you plan to take on a fixer-upper, you might be facing the prospect of many projects. If this is the case for you, you might be considering an FHA 203(k) loan.
What is an FHA 203(k) loan?
An FHA 203(k) loan, also known as an FHA 203(k) rehab loan or Section 203(k) loan, combines the financing for a home’s purchase and remodeling or repairs into a single loan. Along with these costs, you can also use a 203(k) loan to finance up to six months’ of mortgage payments while you live elsewhere during renovations.Like other FHA loans, a 203(K) loan is insured by the Federal Housing Administration and offered by FHA-approved mortgage lenders. It also comes with the requirement to pay FHA mortgage insurance.Types of 203(k) rehab loans
There are two types of FHA 203(k) loans: limited 203(k) and the more popular standard 203(k). Here’s an overview:
Key terms
Limited 203(k) loan:
Designed for non-structural projects valued at less than $35,000, with no minimum cost requirement
Standard 203(k) loan:
Designed for more extensive jobs, including major structural work like an addition, with a minimum cost requirement of $5,000
How does an FHA 203(k) loan work?
A 203(k) renovation loan can be a 15- or 30-year fixed-rate or adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). The amount you can borrow depends on criteria such as your credit rating and income. The total amount borrowed through 203(k) loans must be within FHA loan limits for the area in which the home is located.
Generally, the most you can borrow for the loan is the lowest of the following:
The FHA’s maximum loan limit for the county where the property is located
The home’s before-renovation value plus improvement costs
The home’s after-renovation value
What can an FHA 203(k) loan be used for?
A standard 203(k) loan can cover many major projects, including:
Converting a property from one unit to up to four units, or the reverse
Foundation repairs
Adding or repairing a deck, patio or porch
Adding or remodeling a garage
Adding or repairing septic or well systems
Adding a fence
Adding accessibility features for those living with disabilities
Installing appliances
Landscaping
Remediating health and safety hazards, such as lead paint
This type of loan can’t cover improvements such as adding a gazebo, swimming pool or tennis court. It also can’t be used for repairs to co-ops or mixed-use properties, unless that property is primarily residential.
A limited 203(k) loan, in contrast, can cover upgrades like new carpeting or paint.
FHA 203(k) loan requirements
There are many requirements to qualify for an FHA renovation loan, including:
Occupation – The main restriction for an FHA 203(k) loan is that the borrower has to be the owner-occupant of the home. Investors are not eligible for this kind of loan, although in certain situations, nonprofit organizations might be allowed to obtain one.
Credit score and down payment – You’ll need a minimum credit score of 580 with 3.5 percent down, or a minimum score of 500 with a down payment of 10 percent.
Debt-to-income (RTI) ratio – Your debt-to-income (DTI) ratio, which measures your gross monthly income against your monthly debt payments, can’t exceed 43 percent.
Renovation rules – You can only use a limited 203(k) loan for non-structural renovations costing less than $35,000. For a standard 203(k) loan, the work has to involve major construction and cost at least $5,000.
Timeline – Generally, the work has to be completed within six months of closing.
How to get an FHA 203(k) loan
Once you’ve identified a home to buy and fix up, you can apply for a 203(k) loan with your lender. If you’re obtaining the standard version of the loan, the lender will assign a 203(k) consultant to your project. The consultant will visit the home to estimate repair costs. If you’re getting the limited 203(k), you’re not required to work with a consultant.
Once your lender signs off on these details and closes the loan, you’ll work with a licensed contractor to handle renovations. Ideally, this contractor should be familiar with 203(k) loans, especially the payment schedule and requirements. If you’re qualified, you might be able to do some or all of the work yourself, but you can’t use the loan proceeds for your labor cost.
The process from there works like a regular construction loan: The lender issues payments to the borrower at various phases of the renovation. As the project progresses, the consultant will inspect the work to authorize more payments. You’ll have six months to complete the renovations. Once the project is finished, you’ll provide a release letter and the consultant will evaluate the work.
FHA 203(k) loan pros and cons
An FHA 203(k) loan offers the opportunity to purchase a home that needs some work without having to obtain two loans. However, there are many rules to qualifying for this type of mortgage.
Pros of an FHA 203(k) loan
One loan for both purchase and renovations
Lower credit score requirement
Low minimum down payment requirement
Potentially lower interest rates compared to credit cards or home improvement loans
Can finance up to six months of mortgage payments if living elsewhere during renovations
Cons of an FHA 203(k) loan
Must plan to live in the home during or after renovation, for at least one year
FHA mortgage insurance payments required
Rates might be higher compared to buy-and-renovate conventional loans
Work must be completed in six months, in most cases
FHA 203(k) loan refinancing
You can use FHA 203(k) loans to purchase a fixer-upper or rehabilitate the home you already live in through a refinance. The process to refinance into a 203(k) loan is similar to a regular refinance, but you must meet the additional requirements of the 203(k) loan.
After refinancing, a portion of the 203(k) proceeds will pay off your existing mortgage, and the rest of the money will be kept in escrow until repairs are completed.You can also refinance an existing 203(k) mortgage through the FHA streamline program, which may help you get an even lower interest rate.
FHA 203(k) loan FAQ
An FHA 203(k) loan funds the purchase of a home and qualifying renovations, while a short-term construction loan funds renovations only. Once the project is complete, you can convert the construction loan to a regular mortgage. Depending on your credit and finances, a 203(k) loan might be easier to qualify for, but a construction loan has less restrictions around the types of improvements you can finance.
An FHA 203(k) loan can be used for single-family homes (including homes with accessory dwelling units, or ADUs), duplexes, triplexes or another multifamily home up to four units. It can also be used for an eligible condo or manufactured home, or a townhome. You might be able to use it for a mixed-use property, as well, provided the property is majority-residential.
If you’re qualified — say, a licensed general contractor — you might be able to do some or all of the work yourself. You cannot reimburse yourself for labor costs with the 203(k) loan proceeds, however.
An FHA 203(k) loan allows you to use funds for everything from minor repair needs to nearly the entire reconstruction of a home, as long as the original foundation is intact.
FHA 203(k) loans are one of several options to pay for home improvements. These alternatives include a conventional HomeStyle or CHOICERenovation loan; a cash-out refinance; a home equity line of credit (HELOC) or home equity loan; credit cards; or personal loans. You might also explore co-investment or shared equity companies, which provide financing in exchange for a piece of your home’s appreciation when you sell.