So far, we have held the line on the market pricing in three rate cuts, but today was a clear break from that. Earlier in the year, the market got well ahead of itself with saying we would have six rate cuts, but I believe, just like last year, the bond market was too bearish on the economy to price in six rate cuts. We have a lot of time left in 2024, and as you can see in the chart below, the 2-year yield has been on a roller coaster since last November.
From BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
One note: this report isn’t 100% a result of shelter inflation being hotter than estimates; car insurance and energy have picked up recently, too. However, the giant monster in the CPI world is shelter, as it’s 44.4% of the index.
Shelter inflation
In this report, shelter inflation damaged the month-to-month inflation growth because the owner’s equivalent rent of residences (OER) was the primary driver of monthly inflation.
Regarding shelter inflation, as we can see below, the slow-moving monster is just not dropping fast enough to lower the core inflation data. With CPI inflation, rents are the biggest deal for core inflation. If we have stronger month-to-month inflation, it will slow down the year-over-year data enough to keep CPI elevated.
Rent data
The OER is becoming a more significant issue for the CPI data this year. We must also be mindful that while we see disinflation in apartments, single-family rents are holding up well. However, the slowdown on this index keeps the data elevated. A more real-time shelter model would change the story very quickly, but that’s not going to happen.
Core CPI
We have made some progress on Core CPI, but remember; the Fed doesn’t track CPI inflation for their 2% target; it’s PCE inflation, and the gap between CPI and PCE inflation is massive. Historically, we would see a gap of 0.47%. Currently, it’s double that. However, with shelter inflation slowly moving lower year over year, core CPI is stalling out until this data line breaks it much lower.
Today, the 0.1% miss on estimates on CPI has taken one Fed rate cut off the table, and mortgage rates have gone higher today. I don’t believe the Fed will pivot until the labor market breaks, something I talked about on this HousingWire Daily podcast. We do see some wage-growth trends that the Fed will find suitable to get more dovish, but the labor data isn’t breaking until jobless claims break.
Next up, we will get the PPI inflation data, which filters into the all-important PCE inflation data. Stay tuned!
Work doesn’t take a break when the cameras stop rolling.
Fresh off the heels of a hit new season of “Buying Beverly Hills“, the real estate power team at The Agency is bringing another showstopping property to the market, one with architectural pedigree, plenty of acreage, and a long history of celebrity owners — and guests.
Set in La Quinta, Calif., the estate once owned by game show legend Merv Griffin hit the market last week for a staggering $36 million, with The Agency’s Zac Goldsmith and Mauricio Umansky holding the listing.
This sprawling 39-acre property, nestled in the heart of California’s desert landscape, features a luxurious 5,409-square-foot main residence, a total of 13 bedrooms, 12 bathrooms, and several additional structures including guest pods (with vacation rental potential) and a gatehouse.
Renowned for its unique blend of Moroccan elegance and modern California style, the former Merv Griffin estate has been a sought-after party destination during the Coachella music festival, hosting celebrities like Post Malone, Katy Perry, and Jack Harlow.
And it boasts dazzling interiors inspired by Yves St. Laurent’s Marrakesh home. So let’s take a quick tour of this legendary celebrity home — before a buyer takes it off the market.
The estate’s grandeur
Spread across an extra generous 39 acres in the heart of La Quinta — a desert resort city in Riverside County, Calif. rightfully dubbed “the Gem of the Desert” — the property consists of seven different structures including a majestic 5,409-square-foot main residence.
Beyond its 13 bedrooms and 12 bathrooms, the former Merv Griffin estate has everything from a private lake to an orchard, equestrian facilities, and even comes with its own water supply.
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The main house
The main house alone is a sight to behold, flanked by four cozy 500-square-foot pods, a West Building, and a gatehouse, all enveloped in lush landscapes against a mountainous backdrop.
Moroccan-inspired architecture
The estate’s architecture is a love letter to Moroccan elegance, seamlessly fused with modern Californian flair. Its grandeur is matched by its design, which includes intricate chandeliers, hand-placed mosaic tiles, and circular guesthouses that add a unique touch to its layout.
See also: Bing Crosby’s Estate in Rancho Mirage — That Once Welcomed JFK and Marilyn Monroe
Designer interiors
The interiors, masterfully put together by renowned Los Angeles interior designer Waldo Fernandez, speak volumes of luxury and style. Taking inspiration from Yves St. Laurent’s iconic Marrakesh home, each room tells a story, blending Moroccan charm with a modern twist that’s as enchanting as it is welcoming.
Guest pods oozing charm
While there’s plenty to love about this idyllic desert escape, it’s the four guest pods that won us over. The charming little guest houses — which have solid vacation rental potential and have been listed on popular rental platforms alongside other structures on the property — each contain one queen-sized bed, an ensuite bathrooms with shower/bathtub combos, a gas fireplace, TV, and private entrances.
Outdoor amenities include a lake and orchards
Stepping outside, a whole series of outdoor amenities add to the appeal of the property. And they go beyond your regular pool and spa, found in most celebrity homes.
The 39-acre estate has a roughly 2.5-acre man-made lake, Lake Merveilleux, home to thriving populations of koi, bass, and turtles, an equestrian facility, and lush orchards of oranges, grapefruits, lemons, limes, pomegranates, and guavas — along with the iconic King Fig Tree, one of the largest in the Coachella Valley.
Post-Griffin era
After Merv Griffin passed away in 2007, the estate found its new owner in real estate investor Mark Majerovic, who bought it for a cool $7 million in 2013. Majerovic turned the estate into a sought-after venue for high-end vacation rentals, events, and, of course, unforgettable parties.
The ultimate party destination
Under Majerovic’s ownership, the estate embraced its new identity as party central, opening its doors to thousands of party-goers looking to experience the glitz and glamour of Hollywood in the heart of the desert.
A celeb hotspot during Coachella
A-listers like Post Malone, Katy Perry, and Jack Harlow, among others, have stayed here during the Coachella music festival, with the house playing host to a veritable who’s who of Hollywood and continuing its legacy as a landmark of high-profile entertainment.
See also: Inside Rod Stewart’s house in Beverly Park — a ritzy $74 million manor with its own soccer field
Home to a TV legend
Built by the late TV host in the 1980s, the property then became Merv Griffin’s longtime home. Griffin, most famous for hosting his talk show, The Merv Griffin Show, was a multifaceted American entertainment mogul best known for his work as a television host and the creator of two of the most famous game shows in American television history: Jeopardy! and Wheel of Fortune.
Beyond his on-screen presence, Griffin was also a successful businessman, with ventures extending into real estate and the hotel industry. And he made quite the profit from his La Quinta property, as the estate was far larger during his ownership.
The estate once spanned 240 acres
Originally spanning over 240 acres, the estate was pared down when Griffin sold off 200 acres for the Griffin Ranch community. Yet, the essence of the estate’s grandeur remains, with its 39-acre heart still beating strong.
Now listed for $36 million
After over a decade of work on the property, real estate investor Mark Majerovic is bringing the former Merv Griffin estate to market. Enlisting the help of top industry pros Zac Goldsmith and Mauricio Umansky (The Agency), the iconic La Quinta property is now on the market for $36 million, offering a rare opportunity to own a piece of luxury and entertainment history in the heart of California’s desert landscape.
More stories
Suzanne Somers’ beloved 28-acre Palm Springs retreat re-lists for $8.95 million
Bob Hope’s house in Palm Springs, an architectural masterpiece
Tour two-time NBA All-Star Kiki VanDeWeghe’s house, as seen on ‘Buying Beverly Hills’
Editor’s Note: Parts of this story were auto-populated using data from Curinos, a mortgage research firm that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our methodology here.
Mortgage rates have largely held steady after a stronger-than-forecasted jobs report on Friday. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 7.24% APR today, down -0.02 percentage points from last week, according to data from Curinos analyzed by MarketWatch Guides.
In its monthly report on job growth, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced an employment gain of 303,000 new jobs for March with the unemployment rate decreasing slightly from 3.9% to 3.8%. These “eye-popping” numbers could mean the Federal Reserve will hold off even longer on lowering interest rates, said Steve Wyett, chief investment strategist at BOK Financial in an email sent to MarketWatch.
While positive for the overall economy, this does not seem to be welcome news for the housing market. Joel Kan, the Mortgage Banker Association’s deputy chief economist, said in a report on Wednesday that today’s relatively high mortgage rates have continued to slow down home buying. Refinance rates are also 5% lower than last year.
Here are today’s average mortgage rates:
30-year fixed mortgage rate: 7.24%
15-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.58%
5/6 ARM mortgage rate: 7.03%
Jumbo mortgage rate: 7.20%
Current Mortgage Rates
Product
Rate
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
7.24%
7.26%
-0.02
15-Year Fixed Rate
6.58%
6.52%
+0.06
5/6 ARM
7.03%
7.01%
+0.02
7/6 ARM
7.24%
7.18%
+0.06
10/6 ARM
7.28%
7.22%
+0.06
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
7.20%
7.14%
+0.06
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
6.91%
6.97%
-0.06
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
6.96%
7.03%
-0.07
Disclaimer: The rates above are based on data from Curinos, LLC. All rate data is accurate as of Monday, April 08, 2024. Actual rates may vary.
>> View historical mortgage rate trends
Mortgage Rates for Home Purchase
30-year fixed-rate mortgages are down, -0.02
The average 30-year fixed-mortgage rate is 7.24%. Since the same time last week, the rate is down, changing -0.02 percentage points.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $681.50 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. You’re paying less compared to last week when the average rate was 7.26%.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages are up, +0.06
The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed-mortgage is 6.58%, an increase of+0.06 percentage points compared to last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed-mortgage at a rate of 6.58% will cost approximately $875.51 per $100,000 borrowed. With the rate of 6.52% last week, you would’ve paid $872.21 per month.
5/6 adjustable-rate mortgages are up, +0.02
The average rate on a 5/6 adjustable rate mortgage is 7.03%, an increase of+0.02 percentage points over the last seven days.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, commonly referred to as ARMs, are mortgages with a fixed interest rate for a set period of time followed by a rate that adjusts on a regular basis. With a 5/6 ARM, the rate is fixed for the first 5 years and then adjusts every six months over the next 25 years.
Monthly payments on a 5/6 ARM at a rate of 7.03% will cost approximately $667.32 per $100,000 borrowed over the first 5 years of the loan.
Jumbo loan interest rates are up, +0.06
The average jumbo mortgage rate today is 7.20%, an increase of+0.06 percentage points over the past week.
Jumbo loans are mortgages that exceed loan limits set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and funding criteria of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This generally means that the amount of money borrowed is higher than $726,200.
Product
Monthly P&I per $100,000
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
$681.50
$682.85
-$1.35
15-Year Fixed Rate
$875.51
$872.21
+$3.30
5/6 ARM
$667.32
$665.97
+$1.35
7/6 ARM
$681.50
$677.43
+$4.07
10/6 ARM
$684.21
$680.14
+$4.07
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
$678.79
$674.73
+$4.06
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
$659.27
$663.29
-$4.02
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
$662.62
$667.32
-$4.70
Note: Monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages are shown for the first five, seven and 10 years of the loan, respectively.
Factors That Affect Your Mortgage Rate
Mortgage rates change frequently based on the economic environment. Inflation, the federal funds rate, housing market conditions and other factors all play into how rates move from week-to-week and month-to-month.
But outside of macroeconomic trends, several other factors specific to the borrower will affect the mortgage interest rate. They include:
Financial situation: Mortgage lenders use past financial decisions of borrowers as a way to evaluate the risk of loaning money.
Loan amount and structure: The amount of money that bank or mortgage lender loans and its structure (including both the term and whether its a fixed-rate or adjustable-rate).
Location: Mortgage rates vary by where you are buying a home. Areas with more lenders, and thus more competition, may have lower rates. Foreclosure laws can also impact a lender’s risk, affecting rates.
Whether borrowers are first-time homebuyers: Oftentimes first-time homebuyer programs will offer new homeowners lower rates.
Lenders: Banks, credit unions and online lenders all may offer slightly different rates depending on their internal determination.
How To Shop for the Best Mortgage Rate
Comparison shopping for a mortgage can be overwhelming, but it’s shown to be worth the effort. Homeowners may be able to save between $600 and $1,200 annually by shopping around for the best rate, researchers found in a recent study by Freddie Mac. That’s why we put together steps on how to shop for the best mortgage rate.
1. Check credit scores and credit reports
A borrower’s credit situation will likely determine the type of mortgage they can pursue, as well as their rate. Conventional loans are typically only offered to borrowers with a credit score of 620 or higher, while FHA loans may be the best option for borrowers with a FICO score between 500 and 619. Additionally, individuals with higher credit scores are more likely to be offered a lower mortgage interest rate.
Mortgage lenders often review scores from the three major credit bureaus: Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. By viewing your scores ahead of lenders considering you for a loan, you can check for errors and even work to improve your score by paying down balances and limiting new credit cards and loans.
2. Know the options
There are four standard mortgage programs: conventional, FHA, VA and USDA. To get the best mortgage rate and increase your odds of approval, it’s important for potential borrowers to do their research and apply for the mortgage program that best fits their financial situation.
The table below describes each program, highlighting minimum credit score and down payment requirements.
Though conventional mortgages are most common, borrowers will also need to consider their repayment plan and term. Rates can be either fixed or adjustable and terms can range from 10 to 30 years, though most homeowners opt for a 15- or 30-year mortgage.
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3. Compare quotes across multiple lenders
Shopping around for a mortgage goes beyond comparing rates online. We recommend reaching out to lenders directly to see the “real” rate as figures listed online may not be representative of a borrower’s particular situation. While most experts recommend getting quotes from three to five lenders, there is no limit on the number of mortgage companies you can apply with. In many cases, lenders will allow borrowers to prequalify for a mortgage and receive a tentative loan offer with no impact to their credit score.
After gathering your loan documents – including proof of income, assets and credit – borrowers may also apply for pre-approval. Pre-approval will let them know where they stand with lenders and may also improve negotiating power with home sellers.
4. Review loan estimates
To fully understand which lender is offering the cheapest loan overall, take a look at the loan estimate provided by each lender. A loan estimate will list not only the mortgage rate, but also a borrower’s annual percentage rate (APR), which includes the interest rate and other lender fees such as closing costs and discount points.
By comparing loan estimates across lenders, borrowers can see the full breakdown of their possible costs. One lender may offer lower interest rates, but higher fees and vice versa. Looking at the loan’s APR can give you a good apples-to-apples comparison between lenders that takes into account both rates and fees.
5. Consider negotiating with lenders on rates
Mortgage lenders want to do business. This means that borrowers may use competing offers as leverage to adjust fees and interest rates. Many lenders may not lower their offered rate by much, but even a few basis points may save borrowers more than they might think in the long run. For instance, the difference between 6.8% and 7.0% on a 30-year, fixed-rate $100,000 mortgage is roughly $5,000 over the life of the loan.
Expert Forecasts for Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have cooled significantly over the past several months. After the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 8% last October, it ended 2023 closer to 7%. In fact, the average for Q4 2023 was 7.3%.
Analysts with Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) both project that rates will fall going into 2024 and throughout next year.
Fannie Mae economists expect rates to drop more quickly, falling below 6% by Q4 2024. Meanwhile, the MBA’s forecast for Q4 2024 is 6.1% and 5.9% for Q1 2025.
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More Mortgage Resources
Methodology
Every weekday, MarketWatch Guides provides readers with the latest rates on 11 different types of mortgages. Data for these daily averages comes from Curinos, LLC, a leading provider of mortgage research that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our comprehensive methodology here. Editor’s Note: Before making significant financial decisions, consider reviewing your options with someone you trust, such as a financial adviser, credit counselor or financial professional, since every person’s situation and needs are different.
Average mortgage rates moved higher for all types of loans compared to a week ago, according to data compiled by Bankrate. Rates for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, 5/1 ARMs and jumbo loans edged higher.
While mortgage rates are still on track to gradually come down this year, the path might be bumpy. Lenders price mortgages based on many variables, but overall, fixed mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves as investor appetite fluctuates with the state of the economy and Federal Reserve decisions.
The Fed opted to keep interest rates as-is at its latest meeting, neither raising nor reducing the benchmark federal funds rate. The central bank has been working to steer inflation back to 2 percent for two years now, and — despite inflation above that target — still anticipates cutting rates this year.
“The Fed is not in a hurry to start cutting interest rates as the progress toward 2 percent inflation has encountered some turbulence,” says Greg McBride, CFA, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.
For now, the Fed expects to issue three rate cuts in 2024. When that happens, the rates on a variety of financial products, including mortgages, should follow suit.
Whether mortgage rates move up or down, though, it’s tough to time the market. Often, the decision to buy a home comes down to needs. Depending on your situation, it might make sense to take a higher rate now and hope to refinance later — buying a home at today’s prices rather than a higher price in the future, while building equity that much sooner.
Rates last updated April 8, 2024.
These rates are averages based on the assumptions here. Actual rates available on-site may vary. This story has been reviewed by Suzanne De Vita. All rate data accurate as of Monday, April 8th, 2024 at 7:30 a.m.
30-year fixed-rate mortgage trends higher, +0.09%
Today’s average 30-year fixed-mortgage rate is 6.97 percent, up 9 basis points since the same time last week. This time a month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was lower, at 6.90 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay a combined $663.29 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. Compared to last week, that’s $6.03 higher.
Standard lending practices defer to the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage as the go-to for most borrowers buying a home as it allows the borrower to scatter loan payments out over 30 years, keeping their monthly payment lower.
15-year mortgage rate trends higher, +0.04%
The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed mortgage is 6.38 percent, up 4 basis points over the last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed mortgage at that rate will cost $865 per $100,000 borrowed. That may put more pressure on your monthly budget than a 30-year mortgage would, but it comes with some big advantages: You’ll save thousands of dollars over the life of the loan in total interest paid and build equity much faster.
The average rate on a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.56 percent, adding 5 basis points over the last week.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, are mortgage terms that come with a floating interest rate. In other words, the interest rate will change at regular intervals, unlike fixed-rate mortgages. These loan types are best for people who expect to sell or refinance before the first or second adjustment. Rates could be materially higher when the loan first adjusts, and thereafter.
While borrowers shunned ARMs during the pandemic days of super-low rates, this type of loan has made a comeback as mortgage rates have risen.
Monthly payments on a 5/1 ARM at 6.56 percent would cost about $636 for each $100,000 borrowed over the initial five years, but could increase by hundreds of dollars afterward, depending on the loan’s terms.
Current jumbo mortgage rate moves upward, +0.08%
The average rate for the benchmark jumbo mortgage is 7.09 percent, an increase of 8 basis points over the last seven days. A month ago, the average rate was below that at 7.04 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $671.36 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. Compared to last week, that’s $5.39 higher.
Refinance rates
Current 30 year mortgage refinance rate goes up, +0.11%
The average 30-year fixed-refinance rate is 6.99 percent, up 11 basis points compared with a week ago. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed refinance was lower at 6.84 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $664.63 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s an increase of $7.37 over what you would have paid last week.
Where are mortgage rates heading?
With inflation still above the Fed’s 2 percent goal and the job market holding strong, policymakers refrained from cutting rates at the central bank’s latest meeting. That could change later this year, as the Fed still expects to slash rates three times in 2024.
Keep in mind: The rates on 30-year mortgages mostly follow the 10-year Treasury, which shifts continuously as economic conditions dictate, while the cost of variable-rate home loans mirror the Fed’s moves.
These broader factors influence overall rate movement. As a borrower, you could be quoted a higher or lower rate compared to the trend.
What today’s rates mean for you and your mortgage
While mortgage rates change daily, it’s unlikely we’ll see rates back at 3 percent anytime soon. If you’re shopping for a mortgage now, it might be wise to lock your rate when you find an affordable loan. If your house-hunt is taking longer than anticipated, revisit your budget so you’ll know exactly how much house you can afford at prevailing market rates.
To help you uncover the best deal, get at least three loan offers, according to Freddie Mac research. You don’t have to stick with your bank or credit union, either. There are many types of mortgage lenders, including online-only and local, smaller shops.
“All too often, some [homebuyers] take the path of least resistance when seeking a mortgage, in part because the process of buying a home can be stressful, complicated and time-consuming,” says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate. “But when we’re talking about the potential of saving a lot of money, seeking the best deal on a mortgage has an excellent return on investment. Why leave that money on the table when all it takes is a bit more effort to shop around for the best rate, or lowest cost, on a mortgage?”
More on current mortgage rates
Methodology
Bankrate displays two sets of rate averages that are produced from two surveys we conduct: one daily (“overnight averages”) and the other weekly (“Bankrate Monitor averages”).
The rates on this page represent our overnight averages. For these averages, APRs and rates are based on no existing relationship or automatic payments.
Learn more about Bankrate’s rate averages, editorial guidelines and how we make money.
Mortgage rates may have been able to claim some resilience over the past few days, but it hasn’t been a great week in general. The average lender jumped quickly over 7% for a top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate on Monday. The next two days were much less interesting.
Now today, the not-so-great week is showing some signs of promise. Without much by way of provocation or justification, rates dipped just a hair under 7%. The nuts and bolts explanation is that the bond market improved this morning following a somewhat weaker reading in Jobless Claims, but other factors relating to timing and recently defensive pricing strategies among lenders help flesh out the story.
More importantly, everything that has happened up until today is of secondary importance to what’s about to happen when it comes to interest rate volatility, or at least to the POTENTIAL for volatility. That’s because tomorrow morning brings the Employment Situation, otherwise known as “the jobs report.” Along with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), this is one of two reports with vastly more power to cause drama for rates than any other report.
The jobs report will be released at 8:30am tomorrow morning. There is no way to know if it will be good or bad for rates ahead of time–only that it can do either of those things in grand fashion. That said, it occasionally threads the needle without much fanfare. If that were to happen, it would place even more focus on the next CPI report which happens to be coming out next week.
To paraphrase Mark Twain, history may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. The U.S. mortgage industry recently had to remind itself of this fact when a CNN analysis found that the nation’s largest credit union, Navy Federal, has the widest disparity in mortgage approval rates between white and black borrowers of any major lender. The report, released back in December, noted that Navy Federal Credit Union approved more than 75% of white borrowers who applied for a new conventional home purchase mortgage in 2022 vs. less than 50% of black borrowers.
As ever, redlining — the intentional, systematic effort by American banks and government to refuse mortgages to African Americans and segregate U.S. cities — looms in the background. The practice wasn’t outlawed until 1968, and ongoing research at the University of California, Berkeley, School of Public Health finds that redlining affects non-white communities to this day in the form of air pollution, reproductive health disorders, and fewer urban amenities.
Is the mortgage industry offering fair access to loans?
The report suggests that the mortgage industry may be neglecting its duty to offer all applicants fair access to loans. With civil rights bills like the Fair Housing Act (FHAct) and Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA) now the law of the land, most lenders will note that they rely on supposedly objective borrower screening algorithms to make lending decisions. But the results tell a different story.
The Federal Reserve’s Consumer Compliance Handbook observes that “evidence of discriminatory intent is not necessary to establish that a lender’s adoption or implementation of a policy or practice is in violation of the FHAct or ECOA.” If a lender has a supposedly neutral policy that results in them denying loans to people of a protected class (i.e., racial, religious, or gender minority) at a greater rate, that policy may constitute lending discrimination. To prove the policy is not discriminatory, the lender must show that the policy is justified by “business necessity.”
Meanwhile, repeated, heavily publicized evidence has dispelled the myth that algorithms are inherently neutral actors. Those in the data analytics field have long been aware that algorithms can not only encode but amplify bias. For example, Amazon had to stop testing an automated hiring algorithm in 2015 when it became obvious that the algorithm was systematically discriminating against women for technical jobs. Trained on the resumes of existing employees, most of whom were male, the algorithm reproduced that same bias when evaluating candidates.
Algorithmic bias in mortgage lending is just another example of the phenomenon that data analysts call “garbage in, garbage out.” Institutions that feed their lending algorithm data that encodes structural racism should not be surprised when the ending algorithm results in a disparate impact.
One of the biggest offenders in algorithmic bias is the almighty credit score.
Lenders rapidly expanded their use of computerized credit scores in the 1970s and 80s, ironically, to protect themselves against discrimination lawsuits. Experts point out that the supposedly objective credit scoring system still bakes in intentional discrimination from decades ago. Leaning too heavily on credit scores actually biases lenders against a large swath of potential homebuyers, including foreign buyers, younger buyers, and buyers from families with low financial literacy, who often lack robust U.S. credit histories.
To avoid discriminating against these groups, lenders need to scrap the credit score and start looking at cashflow. Cashflow underwriting is a transparent, data-driven approach that looks at an individual’s core financial behavior metrics. The main factors that cashflow underwriting looks at are the applicant’s balances, cashflow trends, and their ratio of discretionary-to-core spending. Cashflow underwriting puts income verification where it belongs: at the front of the process. By looking at an applicant’s behavioral metrics based on real-time financials from their bank data, cashflow underwriting is blind to racial and age discrimination. People qualify based on their ability to pay, not their placement in some opaque scoring system.
Cashflow underwriting also addresses another problem with traditional screening approaches, which is the overreliance on paystubs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, over 10% of Americans are self-employed. With the growth of the gig and sharing economies, as well as the rise of social media influencers, an increasing number of Americans are getting their income from nontraditional sources. A cashflow-first approach acknowledges applicant income from all sources, based on their bank deposit history, rather than just payroll alone, making it easier for applicants to demonstrate their ability to pay.
With today’s artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning technologies, lenders can make the switch to cashflow underwriting a lot more easily than they think. Innovative, AI-powered verification algorithms on the market right now can evaluate an applicant’s income, assets, employment history, and cashflow without invading anyone’s privacy. The applicant’s race, creed, sexual or gender orientation, current neighborhood, or place of origin never enters the picture.
Navy Federal may have received the bulk of the bad press this time around, but these problems — overreliance on credit scores, outdated expectations about employment — are industry wide. To avoid becoming the next Navy Federal, lenders must evaluate the whole picture. Following a cashflow underwriting approach and backed by AI, lenders can make safe bets, free from prejudice or the appearance of bias, to help people attain home ownership.
Tim Ray is co-founder and CEO of VeriFast, an identity and financial verification platform that reduces underwriting and costs while eliminating fraud. A serial entrepreneur and angel investor, Tim is an influential voice in the real estate and property management sectors.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners.
To contact the authors of this story: Tim Ray at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tracey Velt at [email protected]
In the March rate update, we discussed why Federal Housing Administration (FHA)-sponsored Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECMs) utilize two interest rates. The “expected rate” is unique to reverse mortgages and is calculated by adding the lender’s margin to the weekly average 10-year constant maturity treasury (CMT). This rate is used, among other things, to help determine a borrower’s initial principal limit (borrowing capacity).
For such a critical number, little has been written about the expected rate and its impact on HECM loans. In this month’s update, we’ll discuss two features you may not know about expected rates.
HUD publishes tables using expected rates in 1/8% increments
Because U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) look-up tables are published using expected rates in 1/8% increments (6.625%, 6.75%, 6.875%, etc.), we must use the nearest 1/8th percent (0.125%).
For example, a 2.50% lender margin combined with last week’s 10-year CMT average (4.22%) would produce an expected rate of 6.72% today. When looking up the borrower’s principal limit factor, we would use 6.75%. Here are sample lender margins and expected rates for the period from Apr. 2 to Apr. 8, 2024.
Because we use the nearest 1/8%, HECM proposals often don’t change from week to week unless the 10-year CMT moves enough to push expected rates beyond a rounding threshold.
Higher or lower expected rates impact principal limits
Higher expected rates reduce borrowing capacity, while lower expected rates increase borrowing capacity. So, it is understandable that HECM prospects want to know how unlocked expected rates could impact their principal limit.
We cannot determine the precise percentage until we know both the relevant age and the expected rate. Depending on those two factors, the impact could be 0.4% to 0.9% of a prospect’s home value. Nevertheless, the average impact of a 1/8% change in the expected rate is a little over 0.6%.
For example, a prospect with a $500,000 home could see their principal limit drop by an average of $3,000 (0.6%) from a 1/8% increase in expected rate. Conversely, their principal limit could increase by an average of $3,000 from a 1/8% decrease in the expected rate until that rate is locked.
April 2024 update
The 10-year CMT average dipped to 4.13% for one week in March, offering higher principal limits for new applications and some loans in processing. While the index rate in effect for April 2-8 is 9 basis points higher (4.22%), the 10-year CMT has been relatively flat since early February.
Example
With a 2.5% margin and resulting HECM expected rate of 6.72% (Effective 4/2/24 – 4/8/24), a 73-year-old homeowner with a $500,000 home appraisal for would qualify for 39.2% of the appraised value of the home. This equates to a principal limit of $196,000 as shown here:
Expected rate: 6.72%
Youngest age: 73
Home value: $500,000
Principal limit: $196,000
For updated principal limit calculations like this, a loan originator can use RapidReverse® (available on any Apple or Android mobile device) or use any HECM loan origination system of their choice.
Note: 2.5% lender margins are used for education purposes only. HUD expected rate look-up tables use the nearest 1/8% for calculating HECM principal limits.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Reverse Mortgage Daily and its owners.
To contact the author of this story: Dan Hultquist at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Clow at [email protected]
The 10-year yield has had a wild ride today, but now is an excellent time to look at my macro take on the labor market and explain what the Fed is looking for with the jobs data. The Fed recently said that the labor market getting weaker would force them to act more dovish on rate cuts, and that seeing vigorous job creation wasn’t a big concern. So, let’s look at where we are today with all the labor data and why mortgage rates are still high while the labor market is getting softer.
Since 2022, I haven’t believed the Fed would pivot until the labor market breaks. I believe too many people put too much weight on the inflation growth rate slowing as the primary driver for lower mortgage rates. Instead, I have focused on jobless claims data. My target has always been the same: jobless claims breaking above 323,000 on the four-week moving average is recessionary. We are far from that, and as you can see below, the growth rate of inflation has fallen, but bond yields and mortgage rates are still elevated because the labor market hasn’t broken yet.
Below, CPI inflation’s growth rate is at 3.2%, while the 10-year yield is at 4.36%. I know it’s wild to think, but we had lower rates with hotter inflation data.
The one data line that has been improving, which Chairmen Powell mentioned at the last press meeting, is jobless claims, which have been falling for months. If this data line ran above 300,000, we would have a different mortgage rate discussion today. Remember, the labor market is getting softer, but it’s not breaking. Once it breaks, that will force the Fed to move,and bond yields will have already gone lower.
How did we get here with the labor market? Here’s my explanation, which all started during COVID-19.
1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.
2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose all the way to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.
Currently, the job openings, quit percentage, and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was. The employment cost index has slowed recently as well. Today’s jobs report showed slower wage growth than earlier in the cycle.
3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September 2022. This would be a speedy labor market recovery at the time, and it happened on schedule, too.
4. This is the key one right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which is in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 158,133,000.This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when the average is 140,000 to 165,000monthly.So, for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140,000-165,000 means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels.
From BLS:Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction.
Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:
In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:
Less than a high school diploma: 4.9%
High school graduate and no college: 4.1%
Some college or associate degree: 3.4%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.1%
A positive trend for the Fed with a softer labor market is that wage growth is cooling down. The Fed can live with 3% wage growth and 1% productivity growth, and now that wage growth is slowly moving under 4%, they will feel more like pilots who can land the plane.
Productivity data has indeed been more robust recently. Still, the Fed doesn’t believe in the more robust productivity numbers, so wage growth closer to 3%- 3.5% is more in their comfort zone.
On a side note, a positive story in housing this year is that the mortgage spreads are improving, and we haven’t had a stress market event like last year to push them higher. This is a huge plus because if the spreads can get back to normal with lower yields, we have a sub-6% mortgage rate market and we can certainly work with that.
All in all, the labor report is showing the same trend I have been seeing for some time now: the labor market is getting softer, but we are still creating more jobs than I was expecting at this point of the cycle. If we are still growing jobs over 165K once we break over 159,000,000 then my forecast model was incorrect, and the labor dynamics are more robust than I anticipated, so less than 1,000,000 jobs left before we cross that bridge.
However, after considering all the drama we had to deal with this week, we came out okay on this jobs report. It does provide a path for the Federal Reserve to see the softer wage growth data and land the plane.
We have all seen horror stories on the news or social media when a squatter moves into a vacant house or rental property and the unlucky owners cannot get rid of them. That happened to me and it was not a fun time. Luckily it provided some great content for my YouTube channel which helped offset the cost of those squatters. I was also fortunate that I did not have to deal with the squatters for years or even more than 6 months as many people do. How long it takes to get rid of squatters can depend on the state, county, or town you reside in. While I was able to get rid of the squatters, I could have done a few things differently that may have forced them out sooner.
Table of Contents
How did I get squatters?
I own an 8-unit apartment building that I call the Ocho. I bought this property a couple of years ago and it came with some tenants who were not amazing. One of those tenants had been behind on rent a few times and caused some other issues so we decided not to renew their lease. That tenant said they were planning to move out of state so it worked out for everyone, or so we thought.
Below is the actual eviction
We gave them notice and about 20 days later they said they would be out and would drop off the keys. Those keys never showed up. We called a few times and we got the same story. They were almost done moving out and would have keys to us soon. The keys never showed up and then the story from the tenant changed. They said they were all moved out but their sister was at the house cleaning for a day. She claimed the sister would drop off the keys soon. I knew this story was not going to end well.
I stopped by the property and talked to the “sister” who was at the property. There was also another lady and maybe more people in the apartment and they did not look like they were cleaning. They said they would be out the next day and would drop off the keys. Big surprise they did not show up so I stopped by the apartment again to see what was going on and I got the same story. Luckily we had already posted a stay or quit notice when the first tenant had said they were bringing keys and never did because they never paid rent for the next month after they were supposed to have moved.
I knew the sister was not going to leave but evictions are expensive and we try to avoid them. I told her I would pay her $200 if she could be out by the end of the week. She agreed and said she would be out and get us the keys. That day came and she said she was out so I stopped by the property. To my surprise, she was out! However, there were at least three new people in the apartment who I had never seen before.
I was hesitant to talk to them because they did not look like they wanted to talk to me but I really wanted them out. I walked over and one of them came out of the apartment. He claimed to be the ex-boyfriend of the original tenant and said the “sister” was his sister and not related to the tenant. He claimed he had moved in because he used to live here with the original tenant and the electric bill was in his name. However, he was never on the lease and we had never seen him or talked to him before. He also showed me a massive cut on his arm he said he got from being stabbed recently but decided he didn’t need to go to the hospital so he taped it shut.
I told him he couldn’t stay and he needed to leave. He gave me all kinds of stories like he approved to get rent money from COVID funds, he said he talked to my office and they said he could stay, and he said his ex said he could be there. None of these stories checked out. I even called the ex who he claimed told him he could stay and asked her about it. She confirmed no one should be there and one reason she is moving out of state is this guy. Some other people came out of the apartment and said they would start paying rent too and had jobs but they hadn’t been paid yet. Even if they had money, I would never take it as that could constitute a lease!
It was clear they were not going to leave. Unfortunately, while I was talking to them the server for the eviction came by and posted the notice that said they had another ten days until the court date for the eviction. They all thought that meant they could stay! I thought about calling the cops and I should have even though they may not have done anything in this situation. Technically they were trespassing but they also had the keys and cops tend to try to stay out of these situations.
I decided to leave and pursue the eviction since it was coming up.
The eviction hearing
I always use an attorney to handle all of my evictions because I have tried it on my own and I never fill out the paperwork right and it costs me more time and money than an attorney would have cost me. I let my attorney take care of it and waited for him to tell me when the eviction date would be. I got a call from the attorney and he said the eviction was not granted! I could not believe it. He said the squatters showed up to the hearing which was a Zoom call because of covid and the judge granted them a 30-day extension because “they had nowhere to go”.
Looking back on this I should have gone to the hearing. I do not know if it would have helped but I could have told the story and what happened and maybe the judge would not have made that decision. As it was, I now had to wait 30 days or hope they moved out which they were not going to do. I drove by all the time and saw more people in and around the unit. I wanted them out so bad, not just because I feared they were destroying the place but because of the other tenants in the building as well.
Another eviction hearing
I showed up to the next hearing and my attorney and I waited for the judge who hopped on the Zoom call about 10 minutes late. The squatters were not on the call. The judge made us wait another 15 minutes for them to show and he seemed disappointed that they never did. He finally ruled the eviction would proceed since they did not show up. We finally got the eviction scheduled with the sheriff for three weeks out.
Time drug on for what seemed like forever and the eviction day finally came. I showed up with my crew because Colorado requires ten people to be there so they can move everything out in an hour. The sheriff’s deputies serve the notice and make sure everyone is safe. I know the deputies and they are really cool. I could not tell if the squatters were still there but I would think they wouldn’t be because I was guessing they didn’t want any contact with law enforcement.
I was wrong! They were still there and it took them 15 minutes to answer the door. The deputies talked to them and they had not moved anything out. We all decided to give them 10 minutes to move what they could and then we would move the rest. I got in the property and it was dirty but thankfully not destroyed. The tenants moved their stuff into their car and left. I never saw them again. The rest of the stuff we left in the yard for 24 hours per Colorado law and disposed of after that.
This could have been much worse based on what I see in other states but it was still frustrating waiting months for the eviction and not getting any rent.
Another squatter eviction we did:
How to get squatters out
There are a few things I could have done better and some things others can do to avoid long squatter situations as well.
If you have vacant properties check on them often! A vacant property is a target for squatters and vandalism.
If you see someone on your property who should not be there call the police immediately. The police may or may not do anything but you still need to try. Some squatters may not want police contact and may leave if they come. The police may say it’s a civil matter or not their problem but remind them it is trespassing and illegal. If you let squatters stay too long without reporting them it makes it much more difficult to get rid of them.
If there are squatters with no lease, create a document stating the people in the property have no lease and no permission to be in the property. Get this statement notarized and bring it with a copy of the Deed showing the true owner does not have any lease with the squatters in case the squatters provide a fake lease.
If you think something fishy is going on with your tenants, schedule an inspection. Most leases should have a clause that the landlord can inspect the property with notice. If they won’t let you in, that could be grounds for eviction.
If tenants are not paying or are supposed to leave and not leaving, start the eviction process as soon as possible.
In extreme situations, you can try offering cash for keys, or money for them to move. Never pay them before they are out and give you the keys.
Be careful accepting any money or rent as that could give them legal grounds to stay even if they do not have a formal lease.
If an eviction hearing is scheduled it doesn’t hurt to show up yourself to give insight into the situation. Just don’t lose your cool or make it worse.
Don’t do anything illegal like bring enforcers to physically remove people. Talk to an attorney and check state laws to make sure you don’t give the judge or squatters a reason to stay.
If you are in a really tricky situation with state laws and police who will not help, turn to social media or neighbors. Tell your story and the more attention you get, the more likely you can get your situation resolved. Again, stay within the law, stay calm, and don’t make it worse.
Be careful about rekeying properties or trying to force them out on your own.
Conclusion
A lot of people think that because they own the property they can do whatever they want, however, that is not the case. When you rent to someone or give them permission to be in the property they have gained rights to that property. If they live there they are in possession of the property and you cannot simply force them to move or rekey the property. Be sure to talk to a lawyer and check with state laws when you encounter a situation like this. Each state has different laws and eviction processes so just because you see someone else do it, doesn’t make it legal. I hope you never have to encounter a situation like this but if you do act fast and don’t give up!
Older Americans who own their home are financially incentivized to stay put, which is likely to worsen the ongoing inventory shortage, two Redfin studies found.
In one recent survey, Redfin found that over three-quarters (78%) of older American homeowners (ages 60 and up) are planning to stay in their current home as they age. Meanwhile, about one in five baby boomers (19%) are considering moving into a community with older people or have already done so. Smaller shares of baby boomers are considering moving in with an adult child, moving to an assisted-living facility or moving in with friends.
The inertia of baby boomers is making it harder for young Americans to find a family home, according to a Redfin analysis. In fact, empty-nest baby boomers own 28% of three-bedroom homes in the U.S., while millennials with kids own just 14%. Furthermore, nearly 80% of boomers own the home they live in, compared to 55% of millennials.
Additionally, 54% of boomers carry no mortgage, and for those who do have a mortgage, nearly all of them have a much lower interest rate than they would if they sold and bought a new home today.
According to the April 2024 Mortgage Monitor report from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), homeowners who took out mortgages with near-record-low rates in 2020 and 2021 face much higher monthly payments even if they move to an equivalently priced home. A “lateral move” of this type would cost 60% more per month, ICE reported.
There are now 517,000 single family homes on the market, up by 26% from a year ago, according to data from Altos Research. Inventory has been expanding steadily for 20 weeks in a row but still remains at historically low levels. Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research, forecasts that there will be 700,000 homes on the market by August or September of this year, the most homes available since 2019.
“Older Americans are aging in place because it makes financial sense, but also because it’s human nature to avoid thinking about challenging scenarios such as needing help as you get older,” Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather, said in a statement. “In reality, many homeowners and renters will need to move somewhere that better meets their needs as they age, like a senior-living community or a one-story home in an accessible neighborhood.
“But the government isn’t prioritizing building housing for seniors, which is further encouraging older Americans to stay put, exacerbating the inventory shortage. Politicians should focus on expanding housing stock that meets the needs of older Americans, which could help with housing affordability and availability for all.”
In certain states like California or Texas, tax systems make it advantageous for people to stay in their homes as they age. Medical and technological advancements have also made it increasingly easy for people to stay in their home as they get older.
More than half (51%) of baby boomers who don’t plan to move say that they like their home and see no reason to move, according to Redfin’s survey. The real estate brokerage conducted this survey in February 2024, collecting 838 responses from baby boomers (ages 60 to 78) and 62 responses from members of the Silent Generation (ages 79 and older).