• The median price, or midpoint, of homes that sold in August was $480,000, a 0.1% drop from $480,592 in August 2022. Home prices had increased each month from December 2014 to November 2022, but began to slide late last year and now have declined on a year-over-year basis in eight out of the last nine months.  

• The supply of homes listed for sale totaled 2,420 in August, down 8.3% from the same month last year. On the one hand, August’s listings were the most for any month since November, yet they remained far below pre-Great Recession years, when August inventories often topped 3,000 and 4,000.

The Springs-area housing market, like that of many other cities, has done an about-face since the second half of last year because of higher long-term mortgage rates.

For years, historically low rates in the neighborhood of 3% for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan helped spur a furious demand for single-family homes. That demand, coupled with a shortage of properties for sale, sent Springs-area median home prices soaring over several years; in June 2022, they hit a record high of $495,000.

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After the Federal Reserve began to hike interest rates last year to tamp down surging inflation, mortgage rates rose, too, and roughly doubled to more than 6% for 30-year loans by the end of last year.

That trend of high rates continued through the first several months of this year. In mid-August, long-term mortgages topped 7%; last week, the national average for a 30-year, fixed rate mortgage was 7.18%, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac.

Higher rates have priced many homebuyers out of the market and sent sales plunging.

Local real estate agents, however, have said that the demand for homes remains relatively strong. As a result, and combined with tight inventories, prices haven’t plunged, though they are down from their record highs.   

The new home side of the Springs-area housing market also has felt the effects of higher mortgage rates.  

In August, 127 permits were issued for the construction of single-family, detached homes, according to a new Pikes Peak Regional Building Department report. August’s tally was up 15.5% compared with the same month last year.

But the pace of home construction through the first eight months of this year remains well behind the same period in 2022, Regional Building Department figures show. Through August of this year, single-family detached permits totaled 1,655, down 36.4% from 2,604 on a year-over-year basis.

Source: gazette.com

Apache is functioning normally

Pssst. Some People Think NFP Could be Even Weaker Than Forecast

Thu, Aug 31 2023, 4:35 PM

Pssst. Some People Think NFP Could be Even Weaker Than Forecast

This morning’s economic data came out slightly stronger than expected, on balance, and bonds rallied anyway.  Granted, Core PCE inflation was 0.2 vs 0.2, but excluding housing, core PCE was higher for the 2nd straight month and the annual tally remains way too high and very flat.  Add the lower jobless claims number (and the beat in Chicago PMI if you want) and the most logical reaction would have been to sell.  In the market’s defense, shorter term rates DID sell, but not too much.  One is forced to conclude that month-end trading distorted the day OR that there’s a fair amount of belief in the whisper number on NFP being lower than forecast due to labor strikes.  We’d emphasize that such whisper numbers do not matter in a world where NFP routinely surprises by 100k+ and where the whispers are only thinking of a 30-40k delta.

    • Jobless Claims
      • 228k vs 235k f’cast, 232k prev
    • Core PCE Inflation m/m
      • 0.2 vs 0.2 f’cast, 0.2 prev
    • Challenger Job Cuts
      • 75.15k vs 23.69k prev

08:50 AM

Flat overnight and flat after data.  10yr down 0.6 bps at 4.106.  MBS up 1 tick.

11:32 AM

Modest strength continues for long end.  10yr down 1.8bps at 4.094.  MBS up an eighth. 

03:02 PM

Off the best levels in the PM hours.  Not much volatility surrounding month-end 3pm closing bell.  10yr down 2bps at 4.09, but up from lows of 4.077.  MBS still up 2 ticks (.06), but down 3 ticks (0.09) from highs. 

04:20 PM

Some illiquidity-driven weakness making for a 1 tick (0.03) loss in MBS.  Some organic weakness bringing 10yr up to 4.104 (but still down .8bps on the day).

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Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com