While reverse mortgage volume in 2024 got off to a rocky start, new data that breaks out retail Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) endorsements versus wholesale production showed that it was the former that took the bigger hit in the first month of the year, based on new data compiled by Reverse Market Insight (RMI).
According to RMI’s newest HECM Originators report, wholesale endorsements gained 2% from December to January, while retail/direct endorsements fell by 3.7%, dragging the total average HECM endorsements for the month down by 1.7% on a per-unit basis.
“That’s mildly interesting given the lag time for endorsements, but case numbers issued in January rose to their highest level since October,” RMI said in its commentary accompanying the data. “[This is] a much more important signal that reverse is looking up.”
Breaking things down
While HECM case numbers as measured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) have been lagging in recent months, the total share rose in January by nearly 30% to 2,923 endorsements. So-called “equity takeout” cases — endorsements that are neither refinances nor purchases — also rose by 23.5% to 2,414.
The HECM for Purchase (H4P) program also managed to gain ground in January, rising 13.5% to 135 loans in what RMI describes as a “seasonally bad month.” The key point of the new data, however, likely rests in HECM-to-HECM (H2H) refinance figures.
“H2H refinance case numbers showed the ongoing alignment of reverse to 10-year [Constant Maturity Treasury (CMT)] rate nuances, rocketing 87.9% to 374,” RMI said. “There are loans to be done here, but keep in mind that with how low volume has been the past two years at the higher expected rates, this isn’t something to build your business around.”
Four of the top 10 industry lenders also gained ground for the month. These increases were led by Goodlife Home Loans (up 25% to 50 loans), followed by Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp. (up 21.6% to 107 loans), Finance of America Reverse (up 17.4% to 682 loans) and Longbridge Financial (up 4.7% to 358 loans).
FAR maintained its position as a market leader for the month, ranking first across retail and wholesale origination metrics over the past 12 months with an industrywide market share of 33%, as well as an even split of 23.9% of the market share across individual channels, according to the data.
Recent trends, LO sentiment
According to outreach conducted by RMD, sentiments expressed by loan originators and managers since the start of the year appears to be reflected in this data. LOs across a variety of housing markets reported that inbound reverse mortgage inquiries appear to have risen since the beginning of the year, keeping them busy.
“I think things have definitely picked up,” said Tane Cabe, a broker with C2 Financial Corp., said in a recent interview. “That seems to be the general feeling. I’ve talked to some leaders in this space recently and they’re telling me they’ve definitely seen an increase in volume. It just seems like the morale is better out there, for sure.”
Also noting a spike in business was David Heilman, principal for HomeGrown Financial in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina.
“I don’t know if there’s really anything to really point to [why that’s the case],” Heilman told RMD in February. “I’ve certainly seen more inquiries already. Typically, this is a slower time for me; January and February have always been slower months. In springtime, people start moving again, but so far in 2024 I feel like I’ve at least been getting more proposals out, which as we all know, results in more applications eventually.”
In some of the nation’s higher-priced housing markets, reverse mortgage professionals also reported a stronger start to business at the start of the year despite the seasonal norm.
The H4P factor
HECM for Purchase is a largely underutilized variation of the HECM product, but after the FHA announced a seller credit for the program late last year — to the delight of many reverse mortgage professionals — LOs in different areas of the country are keeping an eye on it as a path toward growth.
“I’m working with a couple of brokerage firms on a multipart agent training series,” Frank Borg, a Seattle-based originator with Fairway said in a February interview. “I’ve done a lot of CE (continuing education) classes on a one-off, and it’s just not enough to prepare a real estate agent to really even see the opportunities to refer or to speak about the possibilities where a client can use a reverse for purchase.”
Fairway is a lender that is making its intentions in H4P plain, expanding its focus in this area and saying in February that it has a “commitment to leveraging its award-winning service and extensive experience in the purchase market to meet the unique needs of retirees looking to buy homes, setting a new benchmark for excellence and innovation in the reverse mortgage sector.”
Looking solely at the end of day trading levels in the bond market, we could conclude that we are once again deprived of any meaningful motivations for momentum. That’s partially true in the sense that today’s events were not “top tier.” Nonetheless, we can still make a case for some relevance. After all, bonds were definitely stronger ahead of this morning’s data. The initial weakness could be coincidental, but the 9:45am reaction to the PMI data was fairly clear in terms of volume and volatility. That’s interesting considering it was mostly in line with forecasts. Some analysts suggested the focus was on the “confidence” metric at a 22 month high in the services sector and that’s a fair take if we’re trying to justify the reaction. In the bigger picture, we’re waiting on next Friday’s PCE data (more like waiting on Monday since the bond market is closed next Friday).
Philly Fed Index
3.2 vs -2.3 f’cast, 5.2 prev
Philly Fed Prices
3.7 vs 16.6 prev
Jobless Claims
210k vs 215k f’cast, 212k prev
Continued Claims
1807k vs 1803k prev
S&P Services PMI
51.7 vs 52.0 f’cast, 52.3 prev
S&P Manufacturing PMI
52.5 vs 51.7 f’cast, 52.2 prev
Existing Home Sales
4.38m vs 3.94m f’cast, 4.0m prev
08:41 AM
After econ data, 10yr up to 4.247 (still down 3 bps on the day). MBS still up 5 ticks (.16) on the day.
09:58 AM
MBS are now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and 10yr yields are unchanged at 4.277.
01:40 PM
Flat since 10am. MBS unchanged and 10yr half a bp higher at 4.281
03:45 PM
Still flat near unchanged levels. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr unchanged at 4.277.
Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.
Mandatory Execution, Accounting, Warehouse, TPO Products; STRATMOR on Comp; Upcoming Events and Training
<meta name="smartbanner:author" content="We now have a native iPhone and Android app. Download the NEW APP”>
This website requires Javascrip to run properly.
Mandatory Execution, Accounting, Warehouse, TPO Products; STRATMOR on Comp; Upcoming Events and Training
By: Rob Chrisman
1 Hour, 35 Min ago
“90 percent of bald people still own a comb; they just can’t part with it.” Many companies that retained servicing in 2020 and 2021, complete with low interest rates and borrowers with large amounts of equity & abilities to repay, have made the decision to part with that servicing. Packages of servicing rights continue to hit the market. In a free market, for every seller there’s a buyer for these packages. And in a free market, where most loans from different lenders are often put into the same securities or at least sold at roughly the same price in the secondary markets with approximately the same servicing value, companies that manufacture those loans at the lowest cost stand a better chance of surviving than those that don’t. Turning to borrowers, consumer costs are certainly in the news, especially with any implications from the proposed NAR lawsuit settlement, specifically if the agreement leads to borrowers paying for their real estate commission when they previously did not. (Readers should know that the CFPB does not regulate real estate agents, and the TRID forms already allow disclosure of the fee to be disclosed on either the buyer’s or seller’s side.) Found here, this week’s podcast is sponsored by Visio Lending. Visio is the nation’s premier lender for buy and hold investors with over 2.5 billion closed loans for single-family rental properties, including vacation rentals. Today’s has an interview with attorney Marty Green on the implications of the recent NAR settlement.)
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software
“Discover the power of partnership with Planet Home Lending Correspondent. Our continually refined product lineup spans vanilla to niche products all tailored to your unique needs: Best effort, mandatory AOT, delegated, or non-delegated. Connect with Planet at the Great River Conference in Memphis, TN, April 16-18. To schedule your meeting, reach out to Regional Sales Managers Joe Griffin 859-806-3323 and Gary Strohwig 262-224-4435, or Renovation Account Executive Margie Walsh 732-673-6228. Not going to Great River this year? Click here to download the latest version of our Product Highlights, then put Planet to work for you in 2024.”
PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending, a subsidiary of Hilltop Holdings (NYSE: HTH), understands the importance of efficiency when it comes to meeting mortgage lenders funding requests. “Express Funding” is how we help our customers reduce the time needed to get loans funded quickly. Express Funding allows our customers to submit multiple loans for funding in one simple data upload, whether it is one loan or 100 loans. We have a growing list of 5,000+ approved closing agents, No Doc funding requirements and funding turn times averaging under 20 minutes! As a well-capitalized financially strong banking partner we give our customers confidence in an uncertain market. If you are interested in learning more about PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending please contact Deric Barnett, (469)955-6786.
Make your general ledger profitable and run your business more efficiently with Loan Vision and LV-PAM. Instead of “staying alive until ‘25”, with Loan Vision, a software built BY the mortgage industry FOR the mortgage industry, you can “produce more in 24!” Customers on Loan Vision see improvements of 30 percent+ decrease in days to close the books, 20 percent+ reduction in accounting headcount, complete LOS to G/L automation, and improved reporting and visibility. Interested in learning how Loan Vision can help you run a more efficient and profitable company? Contact Carl Wooloff to schedule a call today.
For independent mortgage banks coping with shrinking production volumes and rising costs per loan, outsourcing accounting is an elegant solution to what’s become a very common challenge. Whether you have no accounting expertise in-house or you have a new team with no mortgage experience, you can tap the Richey May Client Accounting and Advisory Services (CAAS) team for the support you need. This team is stacked with mortgage industry experts who can tailor your solution to meet your most pressing needs in a volatile time, with no training needed. Need help transitioning to loan level accounting? Need a fully outsourced function? You got it! Need industry training for your controller? We can do that. In this article, Richey May’s expert Kim Dittmer answers all your most frequently asked questions around outsourced accounting as a mortgage bank.
STRATMOR Comp Survey
Lenders, how have rising rates and shrinking margins impacted your 2024 compensation plans? STRATMOR Group’s Spring 2024 Compensation Connection® Study provides valuable comparisons on compensation components, incentive plan structure, compensation percentiles, and more. Three-year trailing data is also included with most data points. Find out how you compare to your peers by participating. Results will only be available to participants, so register today! Questions? Email [email protected].
Webinars, Events, and Training into April
(A good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here, and click on “Conference List” for in-person events in the future.)
How lenders can save money: Most lenders are painfully aware of rising loan origination costs, which is a common trend in a down market. Yet some lenders are fighting back… Like Lower, which has found a way to save as much as 80 percent on these operational line items and win more loans. Sign up for this exclusive webinar taking place today at 11AM PT, featuring James Duncan and Donielle Geiser (Lower), and Richard Grieser (Truv), and yours truly where they’ll share their take on today’s market and how they’ve reduced costs on operational line items previously thought to be beyond a lender’s control.
Texas Mortgage Bankers Association monthly education webinar: “Guardians of Security.” Join Texas Mortgage Bankers Association for an insightful presentation on navigating cyber risks in the mortgage lending marketplace, Guardians of Security – Navigating Cyber Risks in the Mortgage Industry, today, 11:30 am – 12:30 pm.
Tomorrow, March 22, is this week’s episode of The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown covering current events in the mortgage market for 30-45 minutes starting at noon PT, 3PM ET, in “The Rundown”. Tomorrow’s will be co-hosted by TMC CEO David Kittle.
Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for “Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One. Every Wednesday at 2:00 PM EST/11:00 AM PT is a dive into a range of mortgage-related topics, including market trends, interest rate fluctuations, innovative mortgage products, and industry advancements. Next week, watch MBA President Bob Broeksmit discuss the industry!
FHA Servicing Quality Assurance Update, Virtual Webinar on March 27, 2– 3:30 PM (Eastern) will provide FHA quality assurance results for calendar year 2023 focusing on top findings from loan-level servicing and lender-level operational reviews. The webinar concludes with a live question and answer session.
On Thursday, March 28th from 2:00-3:00 PM, join CoAMP and Michael Flynn, Of Counsel, w/Buchalter for an informative session moving forward in the current mortgage market could look like, including: What are the areas of increased regulatory activity and likely new rules? The impact on brokers of likely foreclosure increases (increased attacks on whether loans meet the ATR and QM requirements. And increased repurchase and indemnity demands from lenders to brokers). The cost is $10 for CoAMP Member and Member Guests/$25 for Future Members (which can be credited towards an annual CoAMP membership). A virtual link will be sent prior to the event.
Want to hear how top producers are thriving in today’s market? Don’t miss the Modern Mortgage Summit on March 28th, hosted by industry leaders Dave Savage and Todd Bookspan. Tune in virtually to hear from 12+ of the nation’s top mortgage professionals, including Jeremy Forcier, Shayla Gifford, and Dan Keller, as they share their best strategies for success in a TED-talk style format. Virtual tickets are only $100, and a portion of your ticket purchase supports the financial literacy nonprofit, FirstHome IQ. Secure your ticket today at modernmortgagesummit.com.
During a virtual press conference on March 28, ABA Economic Advisory Committee Chair Simona Mocuta, managing director and chief economist at State Street Global Advisors, will present the latest consensus economic forecast from this panel of top economists at some of North America’s largest banks. The Committee’s updated outlook comes as inflation gradually abates, economic uncertainty persists, and the Federal Reserve considers a less restrictive policy. The committee’s forecast will include the group’s latest assessment of GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, interest rates and credit conditions. RSVP required: Please contact Ava Castelli to RSVP and receive login/dial-in information.
FHA is offering In-Person, Free Underwriting Training in Denver, CO., April 10, 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM MST. Training will provide an overview of FHA underwriting procedures as outlined in FHA’s Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1 and addresses several industry-related frequently asked questions (FAQs). This training will also take an in-depth look at a variety of topics including credit, income, and asset (CIA) documentation; manual underwriting; automated underwriting systems (AUS); closing; and more.
FHA is offering In-Person, Free FHA Appraisal Training in Denver, CO., April 10, 1– 4 PM MST. Training will provide an overview of FHA appraisal protocol and updates to FHA appraisal policy as outlined in FHA’s Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1. This training will also take an in-depth look at a variety of appraisal-related topics including property acceptability criteria; minimum property requirements; property defects; appraiser responsibilities and requirements; and more.
Join the MBA of NJ, in partnership with HUD for the 2024 HUD Housing Counseling Session, April 11th, 2:00PM – 4:00PM at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY., Keys to Homeownership: Building Strategic Partnerships.
Acquire a greater perspective from industry experts at American Mortgage Conference from April 15 – 17. Held in a new location this year at the Marriott Savannah Riverfront in Georgia. Co-hosted by ABA and the North Carolina Bankers Association, this premier conference is the only mortgage event that blends business and regulation to assure you are fully up to date and fully connected to crucial professional networks.
AmeriCatalyst explores the operational impact of climate change and its profound industry-wide implications for the US housing and finance market. The event brings together senior representatives and CEOs from government entities including the White House, The Fed, Treasury and the FDIC; government housing entities; insurance companies; institutional investors; investment banks; banks; mortgage originators and servicers; homebuilders; Single Family Rental Operators and REITs; the leading data providers; economists; academic institutions; climate tech providers and world renowned climatologists. The purpose of the event is to recognize, prioritize, mobilize, and prepare for an increasingly volatile, unpredictable, and potentially uninsurable future due to extreme and catastrophic weather-related events due to climate change. AmeriCatalyst’s GOING TO EXTREMES: The Climate, Housing and Finance Summit is being held at the Gaylord National Harbor (in the Washington DC area) on April 18 and 19. Contact Toni Moss (512-461-6340) with questions.
Capital Markets
AC/DC released its masterpiece, “Back in Black,” 44 years ago. The album was a rebirth after its original lead singer’s death. After challenging times, mortgage lenders seek to get back in the black on their income statements. One solution is moving back to mandatory delivery, and Optimal Blue can help you do it. For nearly 20 years, Optimal Blue has advised and guided originators to transition from best efforts to mandatory successfully. With recent data showing the best efforts to mandatory premium above 40 basis points (bps) for conventional 30-year loans, the return on investment provides a clear path to a return to the black. Whether you are approaching or expecting a volume boost or looking to put fewer agency-eligible loans on your balance sheet, now is the time to learn how Optimal Blue can help. To learn more, connect with Mark Teteris, CMB, Optimal Blue’s director of solutions specialists.
Interested in learning more about moving from best efforts to mandatory loan sales? Maybe you’ve already moved to mandatory and are looking for even more pickup and ways to mitigate risk? Join MCT’s Moving to Mandatory Loan Sales webinar on April 4th at 11am PT to learn how mandatory loan sales is helping lenders improve profitability while reducing risk. In this webinar, MCT’s Scott Holtz, Vice President of South Regional Sales, will discuss how to leverage mandatory loan sales to improve profitability, manage risk with pipeline hedging, and operational changes needed for the transition. Register for the webinar or join MCT’s newsletter to receive the latest educational content.
In interest rate news, as was widely expected, the Fed held the federal funds target steady at a range of 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent yesterday, extending the pause on rate changes that followed their most recent hike last July. This decision was unanimous as the Fed believes that employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. However, the committee also repeated from their prior statement made January 31st, that it “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”
Meanwhile, the latest summary of economic projections showed no change in the Fed’s median fed funds rate projection for this year (4.6 percent) while the forecast for 2025 was raised to 3.9 percent from 3.6 percent. The Core PCE forecast for 2024 was raised to slightly while the GDP growth forecast increased slightly as well from the last estimate in December. During his press conference, Fed Chairman Powell said that it will be appropriate to slow the pace of asset runoff fairly soon. Rate cut expectations increased by yesterday’s close with the implied likelihood of a June cut rising to 74 percent from 59 percent on Tuesday.
Following yesterday’s Fed events, today brings the latest decisions from the Swiss National Bank, Norges Banks, and Bank of England. The U.S. calendar has already kicked off with the Q4 current account deficit, weekly jobless claims (210k, down slightly; continuing claims 1.807 million), and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing (3.2, down but not negative).
Later today brings S&P Global flash PMIs for March, existing home sales for February, leading indicators, Treasury announcing the auction sizes for next week’s month-end supply auctions before auctioning off $16 billion reopened 10-year TIPS, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, and remarks from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices a tough better than Wednesday, the 10-year yielding 4.24 after closing yesterday at 4.27, and the 2-year yield down to 4.58.
Jobs
“It’s 1999: Californication and Slim Shady dominate the charts, the iconic films Fight Club and The Matrix are released, Serena Williams wins her first Grand Slam to kick off an outrageous career and with inspiring greatness being born all around Seth Fass founds East Coast Capital. Celebrating its 25th anniversary, East Coast Capital has scored incredible victories for clients to achieve their homeownership goals. Once a small broker, NY-Based East Coast Capital is now a licensed bank across the nation, approved with Fannie, Freddie, and FHA and also specializes in underwriting Non-QM loans. Committed to providing homeowners access to capital and supporting loan officers with a diverse range of products and common-sense approach to underwriting, the movies and songs may have fallen off the playlist and Serena has retired from the courts, but born among the best, East Coast Capital still remains! Ready to Join? Email us here.”
Congratulations to John Hedlund, the Chief Operating Officer and Managing Director of AmeriHome, who has announced his retirement from the company.
Calling all applicants for Flagstar’s MortgageTech Accelerator, a highly acclaimed incubator for young fintech companies with fresh solutions for the mortgage sector, now in its fifth edition. Flagstar is looking for applicants who are making breakthroughs in all facets of the mortgage business including origination, processing, marketing, servicing, compliance, sales, underwriting, credit, and quality assessment. The program comes packed with perks like access to Flagstar senior executive mentors and a wide network of potential customers, as well as the opportunity to test solutions in a real-world controlled environment. Ranking high among the selection criteria are the potential for technological innovation, prospects for growth, and CRA impact. Past alums Greenline, Calque Inc., and Housetable, give the program a resounding thumbs-up. Check it all out here and email your pitch deck to [email protected] by April 15.
Download our mobile app to get alerts for Rob Chrisman’s Commentary.
Share via Social Media:
All social media shares will include the image and link to this page.
Surprisingly Calm Reaction to Surprisingly Similar Fed Rate Projections
By:
Matthew Graham
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 4:32 PM
Surprisingly Calm Reaction to Surprisingly Dovish Fed
With so much apparently at stake heading into today’s Fed events, the reality ended up being somewhat underwhelming. At least it was underwhelming in a good way for the bond market and rates. The key revelation was a Fed dot plot (individual projections for the Fed Funds Rate) that showed the exact same median rate at the end of 2024 as seen in the last dot plot (3 rate cuts still penciled in this year). Bonds cheered the news at first, but then got defensive ahead of Powell’s press conference. Powell navigated questions without prompting any more panic–essentially convincing investors that the Fed was approaching incoming data with with a certain level of optimism regarding inflation returning to the late 2023 trend (as opposed to the early 2024 trend of higher readings). Bonds ended up basically threading the needle with modest gains by the end of the day.
09:38 AM
Initially stronger overnight on EU inflation data, but steadily rising since then. 10yr unchanged at 4.293. MBS down 1 tick (.03)
01:25 PM
Slightly stronger ahead of Fed. MBS up an eighth. 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.275
02:32 PM
2 way reaction after Fed announcement. Now slightly weaker heading into the press conference. 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.304. MBS still up an eighth of a point.
03:25 PM
Bonds settling down in slightly stronger territory with MBS up 7 ticks (.23) and 10yr yields down 1.6bps at 4.277.
Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) held its short-term policy interest rate steady at a range of 5.25% to 5.5% for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday.
“The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” the FOMC said in a statement. “In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans.”
Earlier in March, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized during his semiannual monetary policy testimony that the central bank needed “just a bit more evidence” that inflation was on the right path before implementing the first rate cut since March 2020. On multiple occasions Wednesday, Powell reiterated the central bank’s commitment to a target of 2% inflation.
Fed officials also unveiled their latest interest rate and economic projections for the first time since December. At that time, most officials agreed that inflation would fall from just above 3% at the end of 2023 to just below 2.5% at the end of 2024. Most penciled out three quarter-point rate cuts this year.
But in the interval between the December and March meetings, inflation in both January and February came in higher than expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate continued to stay below 4%, companies still exhibited expanding payrolls, and workers boasted growth in real wages.
While the projections for the policy rate at the end of 2024 did not change, policymakers expect fewer rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 than they anticipated in December. In other words, interest rates are poised to stay higher for longer.
Fed officials also expect inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, to end the year at 2.6% instead of 2.4%, a modestly higher level than they anticipated in December. As of Wednesday afternoon, investors were placing the probability of a cut by June at 74.4%, according to the CME Group. The Fed meets one more time before that, on April 30 and May 1.
What does a cautious approach mean for housing?
Mortgage rates have trended upward since the beginning of the year. As of March 18, mortgage rates were 30 to 40 basis points higher than on Jan. 1, 2024, according to Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research.
Experts still expect mortgage rates to come down in 2024 but not as fast as anticipated, hampering homebuyers’ prospects of improved affordability. New construction will continue to be a necessary source of housing options for buyers as the supply of existing homes remains limited.
According to Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale, assumable mortgages — which allow a buyer to take over a seller’s existing mortgage terms — could become a more viable alternative.
“A small share of the total outstanding mortgage pool is eligible for assumption, and the share of sellers who are aware of this feature and advertising it on their listings is even smaller, but in some of the markets where sellers are most likely to advertise this feature, Realtor.com research suggests that buyers can find mortgage assumption advertised on 1-3% of active homes for sale,” Hale said in a statement.
Average mortgage rates edged higher yesterday. Unfortunately, it was the sixth consecutive business day on which they’ve risen.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might barely move. However, these early mini-trends frequently alter speed or direction as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.15%
7.17%
Unchanged
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.57%
6.61%
-0.04
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.16%
7.19%
+0.02
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.63%
6.66%
-0.05
30-year fixed FHA
6.51%
7.19%
Unchanged
30-year fixed VA
6.61%
6.72%
-0.03
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.3%
7.39%
Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Tomorrow’s Federal Reserve events (see below) could make a big difference to mortgage rates in the near and medium terms. But, right now, I’m pessimistic about our seeing a sustained downward trend until the summer. And some wonder if the fall might be a more realistic timeframe.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes held steady again at 4.32%. (Neutral for mortgage rates. However, yields were rising this morning.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were mixed this morning. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices increased to $83.18 from $81.35 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices inched down to $2,156 from $2,159 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — dropped to 69 from 75 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to hold close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Tomorrow
I covered yesterday the three Federal Reserve events due early tomorrow afternoon:
2 p.m. Eastern — Rate announcement and report publications
2 p.m. Eastern — Summary of Economic Projects publication. This occurs only quarterly and includes a dot plot
I’ll brief you more fully on those tomorrow morning. That way you’ll know what to look out for before it’s too late to act.
Personally, I’m not very hopeful about the impact of the Fed’s events on mortgage rates. Of course, I can’t be sure what they’ll bring. But recent economic data has likely reinforced the central bank’s natural caution. And I suspect that it may signal later and fewer cuts in general interest rates this year than markets have been expecting.
If I’m right, that could be seriously bad for mortgage rates. So, let’s hope I’m wrong.
Today and later in the week
I’ll be surprised if today’s economic reports move mortgage rates much. They cover February’s housing starts and building permits. It’s not that those data are unimportant. However, they rarely attract the attention of the investors who largely determine mortgage rates.
We have to wait until Thursday for a couple of reports that sometimes affect mortgage rates. They’re two March purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) from S&P. One is for the services sector and the other covers manufacturing. I’ll brief you on those tomorrow morning.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Mar. 14 report put that same weekly average at 6.74% down from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Feb. 12 and the MBA’s on Feb. 20.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.5%
6.3%
6.1%
5.9%
MBA
6.9%
6.6%
6.3%
6.1%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Well, so much for mortgage rates falling just in time for the spring home buying season.
While many expected interest rates to be lower by now, they’ve proven to be pretty sticky at current levels.
At last glance, the 30-year fixed is still hovering close to 7%, albeit better than October 2023 when it was around 8%.
But there was hope we’d see rates in the 6% range by now and maybe even lower if the Fed had cut rates earlier.
Interestingly, rates are actually pretty well aligned with the 2024 mortgage rate predictions made at the end of last year.
The likes of Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association pegged the popular loan program at 7% for the first quarter of 2024. And that’s pretty much where we stand today.
The bad news is they’ve now indicated that it could take longer for rates to fall to more agreeable levels.
Fannie Mae Has Adjusted Its Mortgage Rate Forecast Higher for 2024 and 2025
In Fannie Mae’s March forecast, they noted that their “interest rate forecast has been upgraded.”
And not upgraded in a good way. Upgraded as in expect higher mortgage rates for the foreseeable future.
Just how bad is it? Well, after making adjustments a month earlier, they’ve since made upgrades of four-tenths and five-tenths, for the years 2024 and 2025, respectively.
This puts the 30-year fixed at an average of 6.6% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025. In other words, no sub-6% mortgage rate for the next two years! Ouch!
In January, their forecast called for a 5.8% 30-year fixed in the fourth quarter of 2024, and a relatively low 5.5% by the end of 2025.
Freddie Mac Also Expects Mortgage Rates to Stay Above 6.5% in the First Half of 2024
Meanwhile, Freddie Mac released a new outlook that calls for mortgage rates to remain high through at least the first half of 2024.
They noted that 30-year mortgage rates will stay above 6.5% through the second quarter of 2024.
It’s unclear what happens after that, but there’s not a lot of optimism at the moment.
This should translate to lower mortgage volume, with rate and term refinance activity hard to come by.
And purchase activity also constrained by things like a continued lack of for-sale supply and mortgage rate lock-in.
However, they do expect home prices to increase by about 2.5% in 2024 and another 2.1% 2025.
Whether this keeps up with inflation is another story…
Why Aren’t Mortgage Rates Coming Down?
Simply put, the economy continues to run too hot. As a rule of thumb, good economic news leads to higher interest rates. And vice versa.
The reason is a strong economy typically results to inflation, which is bad for bond prices and mortgage-backed securities.
That price pressure requires higher yields, which translates to higher mortgage rates. So if you want lower rates, you kind of need to root for economic strife.
Due to this robust economy, the Federal Reserve has maintained its restrictive monetary policy.
While there were expectations of a series of rate cuts in 2024, including one as early as this March, the Fed balked today.
And there’s a chance rate cuts will remain elusive for the time being.
Ultimately, inflation continues to run high and unemployment remains low. Until that changes, the Fed won’t “pivot” and cut rates. They’ll simply stay the course.
While the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, their long-term policy decisions can dictate the direction of 10-year treasury yields and also 30-year mortgage rates.
Until economic conditions worsen, don’t expect the Fed to pivot and begin cutting its own federal funds rate.
Perhaps It’s Better to Say Mortgage Rates Will Be Elevated for Longer
There’s a popular phrase “higher for longer,” in reference to the Fed’s monetary policy needing to remain restrictive for a longer period of time to reach its goals.
When it comes to mortgage rates, perhaps it’s more accurate to say “elevated for longer.” That is to say they won’t necessarily go higher from their current levels.
But they may remain at these higher levels for longer than originally anticipated. So it’s not like we’ll necessarily see mortgage rates move up from here.
Or that they’ll go back to those scary 8% rates seen in October 2023. But they could linger in this unpleasant range throughout 2024. And maybe even into 2025.
This may make that date the rate, marry the house thing hard to achieve
If you recall when mortgage rates were super low, many forecasts called for higher rates year in and year out.
Yet each year, the forecasts proved to be incorrect as rates reached new all-time lows and stayed at/near those levels for much longer than expected.
Sadly, the same thing is possible now, just the other way around. So instead of rates doing what the forecasters expect, they’ll continue to remain sticky high.
The funny part is the economists will be wrong in both instances. Wrong about them rising for many years. And possibly wrong again about them falling back down to earth.
One never knows what one will learn at a mortgage event, like yesterday learning from Lender Toolkit’s Alex K. that Collinsville, Illinois has the largest catsup bottle in the world. (The Collinsville area produces 60 percent of the world’s horseradish root, but I’ll save that tale for another time.) Later today I’ll be leaving Las Vegas, flying from Las Vegas north to Reno while President Joe Biden flies south from Reno to Las Vegas. (I imagine the chow on Air Force One beats whatever Southwest will serve up.) Nevada or nationwide, politics are certainly intertwined with housing, and vice versa. There’s the “Lock-in Effect” produced by government-induced rates. ICE reported that first-time homebuyers made up 55 percent of agency purchase mortgages in 2023, the highest for many years. Meanwhile, heard in the hallways: increasing the pool of qualified first-time home buyers without a corresponding increase in homes they’d buy is pointless… it just jacks up the starter home prices.” From someone else: “Affordable housing initiatives are not really moving the needle. Instead of eligibility at 80 percent of the AMI (area median income), why don’t they make it 50 percent?” (Found here, this week’s podcast is sponsored by Visio Lending. Visio is the nation’s premier lender for buy and hold investors with over 2.5 billion closed loans for single-family rental properties, including vacation rentals. Today’s has an interview with Experian’s Joy Mina on the income and employment verification landscape and the Experian Verify solution.)
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software
LoanCare®, a top U.S. mortgage subservicer, has made it easier than ever for homeowners to manage their mortgages with a newly launched, proprietary mobile app: My LoanCare Go. Offering expanded private label branding options, account-based marketing, and tailored communications, My LoanCare Go helps clients enhance their homeowners’ mortgage experience to build lasting relationships. The app is part of LoanCare’s award-winning consumer digital platform, and is available in both English and Spanish for personalized support. Reach out to learn more today!
Horse racing fans know the Kentucky Derby always takes place the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs in Louisville. While that main event (Derby 150!) is still weeks away, Down Payment Resource (DPR) hopes to see you at The Mortgage Collaborative’s The Mane Event next week in Louisville where its co-sponsoring a Derby-themed opening reception on March 24 and will demonstrate the benefits of down payment assistance for lenders during a partner showcase. Grab your mint julep, jodhpurs, and a festive hat for this always fun “family” affair, and schedule a meeting with the DPR team.
Make your general ledger profitable and run your business more efficiently with Loan Vision and LV-PAM. Instead of “staying alive until ‘25”, with Loan Vision, a software built by the mortgage industry for the mortgage industry, you can “produce more in 24!” Customers on Loan Vision see improvements of 30 percent+ decrease in days to close the books, 20 percent+ reduction in accounting headcount, complete LOS to G/L automation, and improved reporting and visibility. Interested in learning how Loan Vision can help you run a more efficient and profitable company? Contact Carl Wooloff to schedule a call today.
“As spring blooms around us, American Financial Resources, LLC (AFR) is thrilled to announce fresh pricing enhancements that will elevate your experience with us! Our world class capital markets team has been hard at work, crafting innovative strategies to bring you pricing enhancements that will have your originators buzzing. With these changes, we’re paving the way for smoother transactions and more competitive offerings, ensuring that you receive the best possible pricing options tailored to your needs. Visit AFR’s Quick Pricer tool to witness the impact now. The new AFR provides TPOs with top-notch service and exceptional value every step of the way. So, as you revel in the beauty of this vibrant season, take a moment to celebrate the exciting improvements we’re bringing to the table. Here’s to a season filled with growth, prosperity, and flourishing opportunities! Contact us at [email protected], 1-800- 375-6071, visit www.afrwholesale.com or partner with AFR today!”
Mortgage Technology Offerings
There’s no such thing as a “one-size-fits-all” technology solution. Every financial institution is different. And modern banks, credit unions, lenders, and insurance brokers need options that make sense for their businesses, their goals, and their customers or members. The Total Expert Partner Ecosystem is a curated collection of industry-leading partners, thought leaders, and technology providers designed to help you address market challenges, drive growth, and create customers and members for life. Leverage 70+ integrations, strategic relationships with Salesforce and AWS, and a rich library of shared industry knowledge and best practices to develop the strategies that support your business goals and build the tech stack you need to put it in motion. Learn more!
Fully Customize Point-of-Sale Workflows with Maxwell’s New Blueprint Builder. Maxwell is thrilled to introduce an industry-first: the Blueprint Builder, a feature in Maxwell Point of Sale that allows lenders to drive a differentiated mortgage experience, helping them to stand out from the competition. With the Blueprint Builder, mortgage lenders can connect to over 60 third-party integrations to create a tailored workflow suited for their unique needs. Plus, lenders can adapt their digital experiences to the operations processes that work best across their products and channels, without the cost of hiring developers. To learn more about the Blueprint Builder, click here or schedule a call with the Maxwell team.
FHA, VA, Ginnie, USDA, and HECM News
Ginnie Mae’s February issuance included $30 billion of Ginnie Mae II MBS and nearly $894 million of Ginnie Mae I MBS, including nearly $816 million in loans for multifamily housing.
For the 2024 calendar year to date, Ginnie Mae has supported the pooling and securitization of more than 91,000 first-time homebuyer loans!
In the Ginnie Mae All Participants Memorandum (APM) 24-02, Ginnie Mae announced the implementation of new Cybersecurity Incident reporting requirements. These requirements are part of Ginnie Mae’s continued commitment to the security and integrity of all operational systems and critical technology infrastructure related to the issuance and servicing of Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Effective immediately, Issuers must notify Ginnie Mae of a cyber security incident within 48 hours of detection.
Yes, Ginnie Mae established cybersecurity reporting requirements for program participants on Monday. Effective immediately, Ginnie issuers must notify the agency of any cybersecurity incident within 48 hours after the issue is detected. “Once the notification is received, representatives from Ginnie Mae will contact the designated point of contact to obtain additional information and establish the level of engagement needed depending on the scope and nature of the incident.”
USDA Rural Development SFHD Program posted, effective March 8th, the Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 area loan limits (based on the guidance in Handbook-1-3550, Chapter 5, Paragraph 5.6 A) are available at https://www.rd.usda.gov/files/RD-SFHAreaLoanLimitMap.pdf.
On March 4th, USDA Rural Development SFHD Program posted Advance Notice: Revisions to HB-1-3555, Chapter 15. Copies of the upcoming revisions are available for review on the Loan Origination page of the USDA LINC Training and Resource Library, under the sub-heading “New”.
USDA Rural Development Single-Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program (SFHGLP) announced a reference sheet for obtaining a payoff and/or release of lien for a USDA Guaranteed Loan Mortgage Recovery Advance (MRA). This reference sheet includes a centralized email address for MRA inquiries and instructions on obtaining a payoff and/or a release of lien for an MRA.
In HECM news, with the Plaza Home Mortgage® Reverse Mortgage, borrowers can enjoy a multitude of benefits, including: No mortgage payment required. No Pre-Pay: Make payments as desired. Non-Recourse Loan: never owe more than the home’s value. Borrowers will maintain title to the home. Borrower’s estate retains all equity. No equity sharing: homeowners keep all future appreciation. Funds are tax free, but always consult your tax advisor. No limitations as to how the money can be used. Younger spouses (under 62) are protected. Closing costs are typically financed in the loan.
Capital Markets
A week that will be rife with central bank policy announcements (see below for some international decisions today) began with a slow retreat in the bond markets and traders paring back their expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates by June. Expectedly, this week will be dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision tomorrow where no change in the fed funds rate (range of 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent) is expected. But we will get a fresh set of economic forecasts along with a new dot plot. The first Fed rate cut is now forecast to come in mid-summer, and fed funds futures are now roughly in-line with the December dot plot, which forecasts three rate cuts this year. Thank goodness. As recently as the end of January, investors were counting on six cuts in 2024.
The Fed has made it clear that policy is restrained and that the Fed presidents don’t want to become too restrictive, but there is a risk that the Fed will sound too hawkish during this meeting which could push bond yields higher. While inflation sits above the Fed’s 2 percent target, it has been trending positively. However, mortgage rates have remained high, currently above 7 percent. With the unemployment rate rising and average hourly earnings growth decelerating, the Fed still believes inflation is likely to cool further in coming months.
Remember that aside from the FOMC, this week is packed with lots of mortgage-related economic data, including the NAHB housing market index yesterday (homebuilder sentiment jumped to an eight-month high in March, fueled by limited resale inventory and lower mortgage rates. A measure of expected sales in the next six months rose to the highest since June), building permits and housing starts today, and existing home sales on Friday.
Overnight and ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections, markets will digest the latest monetary policy decisions from the BoJ (it raised rates!) and the Royal Bank of Australia (it’s done hiking rates). Today’s domestic economic calendar is under way with February housing starts and building permits (+10.7 percent, 1.521 million annualized; +1.9 percent, 1.518 million respectively). Expectations were for 1.450 million starts and 1.500 million permits versus 1.331 million starts and 1.489 million permits previously in January. Next up brings Redbook same store sales for the week ending March 16. The U.S. Treasury then announces the auction sizes for short-duration bills before auctioning $75 billion 42-day CMBs, $46 billion 1-year bills, and $13 billion reopened 20-year bonds. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices slightly improved from Monday evening, the 10-year yielding 4.32 after closing yesterday at 4.34 percent, and the 2-year at 4.71.
Jobs
Weichert Financial Services, a leading nationwide Real Estate Affiliated Mortgage Company, is seeking to bring on a VP of Mortgage Servicing. The candidate would oversee the subserving relationship with Dovenmuehle and the technical day to day of the firm’s $2+ Billion servicing portfolio, thus a prior working relationship with DMI and their internal systems would be viewed as a plus. Both Hybrid and Remote candidates for the position would be considered, with headquarters being in New Jersey. If you’re a seasoned mortgage professional with a passion for taking a long standing, well capitalized Mortgage company established in 1980 to the next level, and you’re looking for a great work/life balance, we want to hear from you. Competitive compensation including Health, Dental, 401K, and PTO. Please contact Tim McLaughlin for more details.
While today marks the arrival of Spring, Spring EQ has proudly served as the industry pioneer in home equity solutions for nearly 8 years! Whether you’re a correspondent seller looking for a new partner, or a wholesale broker in search of an expansive suite of home equity products, Spring EQ can help. The need for home equity solutions is surging among borrowers, so make sure your business is prepared to meet this demand by partnering with the experts in home equity at Spring EQ. Interested in a correspondent partnership? Click here. Interested in a wholesale partnership? Click here. Looking for new opportunities in the mortgage industry? Explore Spring EQ job postings and come join a growing team of fun and experienced mortgage professionals! At Spring EQ our primary focus is second mortgages. So, think of us first for all your seconds.
PrimeLending’s One More Sales Coaching Program is transforming LO careers! LOs are discovering their best selves thanks to our exclusive peer-to-peer coaching program. The One More Sales Coaching Program is designed by PrimeLending’s top producers who’ve proven they know what it takes to excel in today’s market. LOs connect, collaborate, and learn from each other in a dynamic small group environment. Graduates walk away having mastered high-impact skills and habits they need to drive better results, such as personal branding, networking, and leveraging technology. The best part? It’s completely free! We’re investing in our LOs and empowering them to take their careers to the next level. Contact Nic Hartke today and join our winning team!
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced that Madisyn Rhone joined the association today as VP of Legislative Affairs responsible for advocating on behalf of MBA’s legislative and policy priorities on Capitol Hill, with a primary focus on Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Download our mobile app to get alerts for Rob Chrisman’s Commentary.
Share via Social Media:
All social media shares will include the image and link to this page.
Mortgage rates remained flat this week ahead of the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed the average 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans at 7.07% on Tuesday, down from 7.08% one week earlier. At the same time one year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.69%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.5% on Tuesday, up from 6.46% one week earlier.
Also on Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.3%.
“Everyone awaits the Fed’s meeting as the 10-year yield is at a critical level,” HousingWire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami said. “Last year when we were here with the 10-year yield, they went very hawkish with their statement, which sent mortgage rates toward 8%. Everyone is waiting to hear the Fed’s language because it has the potential to send rates much higher”
As of March 18, mortgage rates were 30 to 40 basis points higher than on Jan. 1, 2024, according to Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research.
As mortgage rates rise, the number of unsold homes tends to grow too as demand slows, leaving more inventory to sit on the market.
In the week ending March 15, there were 507,000 single-family homes on the market in the U.S., up 1.3% from a week prior, up 22% from a year ago, and up 105% from two years ago, according to data from Altos Research.
About 59,000 new single-family listings hit the market during the week ending March 8, 24% more than the same week in 2023. Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family home was $435,000, up 1.2% from a year ago.
Nearly all markets are showing inventory growth compared to last year, and the gains are expanding every week.
“If mortgage rates continue to rise to 7.5% or all the way to 8% again, we will see a pretty dramatic increase in unsold inventory,” Simonsen wrote on Monday. “But if rates finally fall, let’s say to 6.5% or lower, we’ll see consumers act very quickly and this inventory growth will reverse. Lower rates mean more buyer competition and less unsold inventory.”
Mortgage rates came down across all terms from a week ago, according to rate data collected by Bankrate. Rates for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, 5/1 ARMs and jumbo loans all receded.
While it’s expected that rates will gradually come down this year, the path might be bumpy.
At its Jan. 31 meeting, the Federal Reserve announced it would hold off changing rates, but could cut rates in the future. At their March 20th meeting, the Fed will update their outlook on rates. Rate changes affect many areas of the economy, including the 10-year Treasury, a key benchmark for fixed-rate mortgages.
“Where the 10-Year Treasury yield goes, mortgage rates will follow,” says Ken Johnson of Florida Atlantic University. “In roughly the last two months, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 50 basis points. Depending on the source, the 30-year mortgage rate is up 48 basis points. Treasurys’ path remains a coin toss at this point.”
Rates accurate as of March 14, 2024.
The rates listed here are averages based on the assumptions indicated here. Actual rates displayed on-site may vary. This story has been reviewed by Suzanne De Vita. All rate data accurate as of Thursday, March 14th, 2024 at 7:30 a.m.
30-year mortgage rate declines, -0.18%
Today’s average rate for the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.84 percent, a decrease of 18 basis points from a week ago. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was higher, at 7.25 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay principal and interest of $654.59 for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s a decline of $12.06 from last week.
The popular 30-year mortgage has a number of advantages:
Lower monthly payment: Compared to a shorter term, such as 15 years, the 30-year mortgage offers lower, more affordable payments spread over time.
Stability: With a 30-year fixed mortgage, you lock in a set principal and interest payment, making it easier to plan your housing expenses for the long term. Remember: Your monthly housing payment can change if your homeowners insurance premiums and property taxes go up or, less likely, down.
Buying power: With lower payments, you might qualify for a larger loan amount or a more expensive home.
Flexibility. Lower monthly payments can free up some of your monthly budget for other goals, like building an emergency fund, contributing to retirement or college tuition, or saving for home repairs and maintenance.
15-year mortgage rate drops, -0.14%
The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed mortgage is 6.42 percent, down 14 basis points from a week ago.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed mortgage at that rate will cost around $867 per $100,000 borrowed. The bigger payment may be a little more difficult to find room for in your monthly budget than a 30-year mortgage payment, but it comes with some big advantages: You’ll come out several thousand dollars ahead over the life of the loan in total interest paid and build equity much more rapidly.
5/1 ARM moves lower, -0.11%
The average rate on a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.35 percent, falling 11 basis points from a week ago.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, are home loans that come with a floating interest rate. In other words, the interest rate will change at regular intervals, unlike fixed-rate mortgages. These loan types are best for people who expect to refinance or sell before the first or second adjustment. Rates could be materially higher when the loan first adjusts, and thereafter.
While borrowers shunned ARMs during the pandemic days of super-low rates, this type of loan has made a comeback as mortgage rates have risen.
Monthly payments on a 5/1 ARM at 6.35 percent would cost about $622 for each $100,000 borrowed over the initial five years, but could climb hundreds of dollars higher afterward, depending on the loan’s terms.
Current jumbo mortgage rate retreats, -0.12%
The average jumbo mortgage rate is 6.94 percent, a decrease of 12 basis points from a week ago. Last month on the 14th, the average rate for jumbo mortgages was greater than 6.94 at 7.31 percent.
At today’s average rate, you’ll pay a combined $661.28 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s $8.06 lower, compared with last week.
Mortgage refinance rates
30-year fixed-rate refinance trends down, -0.20%
The average 30-year fixed-refinance rate is 6.84 percent, down 20 basis points since the same time last week. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed refinance was higher at 7.27 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $654.59 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That represents a decline of $13.40 over what it would have been last week.
Where are mortgage rates going?
With inflation still above the Fed’s 2 percent goal and the job market holding strong, the Fed isn’t likely to cut rates at its March meeting.
“The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the first half of this year, in my view,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, “but rate cuts of three, four or even five rounds will be possible in the second half of the year as rent measures will be much more well-behaved.”
The rates on 30-year mortgages mostly follow the 10-year Treasury, which shifts continuously as economic conditions dictate, while the cost of variable-rate home loans mirror the Fed’s moves.
These broader factors influence overall rate movement. As a borrower, you could be quoted a higher or lower rate compared to the trend.
What today’s rates mean for you and your mortgage
While mortgage rates change daily, it’s unlikely we’ll see rates back at 3 percent anytime soon. If you’re shopping for a mortgage now, it might be wise to lock your rate when you find an affordable loan. If your house-hunt is taking longer than anticipated, revisit your budget so you’ll know exactly how much house you can afford at prevailing market rates.
Keep in mind: You could save thousands over the life of your mortgage by getting at least three loan offers, according to Freddie Mac research. You don’t have to stick with your bank or credit union, either. There are many types of mortgage lenders, including online-only and local, smaller shops.
“All too often, some [homebuyers] take the path of least resistance when seeking a mortgage, in part because the process of buying a home can be stressful, complicated and time-consuming,” says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate. “But when we’re talking about the potential of saving a lot of money, seeking the best deal on a mortgage has an excellent return on investment. Why leave that money on the table when all it takes is a bit more effort to shop around for the best rate, or lowest cost, on a mortgage?”
More on current mortgage rates
Methodology
Bankrate displays two sets of rate averages that are produced from two surveys we conduct: one daily (“overnight averages”) and the other weekly (“Bankrate Monitor averages”).
The rates on this page represent our overnight averages. For these averages, APRs and rates are based on no existing relationship or automatic payments.
Learn more about Bankrate’s rate averages, editorial guidelines and how we make money.