Last week’s DataDigest offered readers a host of housing forecasts from industry experts at banks, trade associations and more, the thrust of which was housing professionals should expect a modestly better year of sales thanks to retreating mortgage rates in the year to come.
A day after publication, Federal Reserve officials made several of their own forecasts – most importantly that the “appropriate policy path” for the Federal funds rate next year will be for it to decrease 0.75 percentage points, implying three cuts of 0.25 percentage points.
Those economic projections from the 19 members of the Federal Open Markets Committee show both a tighter consensus of opinions and a lower target Federal funds rate than the projections the FOMC made in September.
Following the Fed meeting last Thursday, mortgage rates dropped. Then they dropped. And then they dropped some more.
In fact, they dropped so much that they reached 6.69% on Dec. 15, just 0.07 percentage points above the average of four forecasts for the third quarter of 2024 and roughly 0.6 percentage points below the average forecast for the first quarter of the new year.
That drop – 0.3 percentage points from Dec. 11 to Dec. 15 – is hardly trivial for forecasters. In addition to predicting mortgage rates, they based their predictions for home sales and home starts largely on mortgage rates, as several experts have stated:
“The story this year and the story next year depend on two variables: mortgage rates and inventory.”
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors
High mortgage rates depress not only homebuyer demand but home sellers’ willingness to put their homes on the market:
“High mortgage rates are the main reason for the low level of sales. Higher interest rates make it more expensive to purchase a home and more difficult to qualify for a mortgage. The sharp increase in the mortgage rate from its lowest level on record in 2021 to a 23-year high has caused the vast majority of homeowners to become ‘locked in’ to their existing mortgages.”
Cristian deRitis, deputy chief economist at Moody’s Analytics
So with mortgage rates so important to outcomes next year and mortgage rates now at levels that are far ahead of predicted levels, are forecasts for next year already off the rails?
What the Fed said
The Federal Reserve did not announce rate cuts or provide a schedule of future rate cuts.
Instead, the Fed kept the target Fed funds rate at 5.25-5.5% for the fourth consecutive time. It also provided committee members’ forecasts of what would be the appropriate rate in 2024, which was based on their forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and other economic indicators.
The median of these rate forecasts – 4.63% – is what implies three cuts next year, given that it is 0.75 percentage points below the current rate. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that “these projections are not a Committee decision or plan.”
Powell further noted that although the FOMC believes “we are likely at or near the peak rate for this cycle” of rate hikes, the possibility of another rate hike has not been taken off of the table if inflation does not continue to moderate.
“No one is declaring victory,” he said. “That would be premature, and we can’t be guaranteed of this progress.”
Yet what the market seems to be focusing on is not Powell’s cautionary comments, but his statement that the FOMC had begun discussing rate cuts in their meeting last week, which sparked a wave of optimism across several market sectors.
However, while Powell said, “We’re sort of just at the beginning of that discussion,” New York Fed President John Williams said on CNBC two days after Powell’s comments, “We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now.”
Cuts were expected
Forecasters were certainly not blindsided by the possibility of the Fed cutting rates next year. Rather, their forecasts are predicated on the assumption that rates will fall.
The National Association of Realtors, for example, made their quarterly predictions for 2024 on October 30, long before last week’s Fed meeting, and predicted three cuts to the Fed funds rate in 2024 – with the rate reaching 4.4% by the end of the year.
In NAR’s outlook summit held the day before the FOMC released its forecasts, NAR predicted four cuts next year.
The Fed’s median forecast of 4.6% for 2024, then, is both fewer cuts and a higher funds rate than NAR predicted when it forecast mortgage rates of 7.5-6.9% in the first half of the year and a full-year average mortgage rate of 6.3%.
Similarly, Wells Fargo noted in its forecast made on Nov. 9 that “we look for the FOMC to cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 225 bps [2.25 percentage points] by early 2025, which is more than both Fed policymakers and market participants currently project.” Wells Fargo predicted mortgage rates of 7.2-6.7% in the first half of next year.
In other words, the forecasters expected rate cuts that are more aggressive than the Fed has so far forecasted for 2024 when they predicted mortgage rates of 6.6-7.6% in the first half of 2024.
Mortgage rate movements
For those who regularly watch mortgage rates, this winter’s decline may look familiar. Since October 26, the weekly average rate for a 30-year mortgage has fallen from about 7.8% to just under 7%.
The drop is reminiscent of a similar period a year ago when the weekly average rate fell from about 7.1% to 6.1% from early November through early February.
The decline in rates last year was motivated in part by a market consensus that a recession was imminent, which could in turn prompt rate cuts to stimulate the economy. When the recession proved elusive, mortgage rates about-faced.
The current market consensus seems to reflect optimistic prospects for a “soft landing,” an inflation-crushing economic slowdown that doesn’t prompt a job-loss recession. Lower mortgage rates are just one signal of this optimism; stock prices for tech, banking, real estate and other companies that went out of favor when interest rates were expected to rise have now soared.
Will this year’s favorite market theory fare better than last year’s? Wall Street Journal’s senior markets columnist James Mackintosh, for one, is skeptical.
“What’s surprising to me is that there seems to be so little investor concern that a slow-growing economy will turn into something worse, or that inflation proves stickier than expected,” he wrote.
So where do forecasts stand?
Housing professionals can take heart that forecasters generally believe 2023 was rock bottom for this economic cycle and expect 2024 to be better – but modestly better. Most forecasters don’t expect significant improvement in home sales until mortgage rates fall to 6% or lower.
Although mortgage rates are currently well ahead of forecasters’ outlooks, they are not near 6%, and only time will tell if they continue on their current path or return to recent highs and descend more inline with forecasters’ expectations.
Forecasts can be useful for businesses planning for the year ahead, but only time will tell what 2024 will bring.
For a third day, average mortgage rates barely moved yesterday. But that’s good because it means last week’s big falls remain effectively uneroded.
First thing, it was again looking as if mortgage rates today might fall, perhaps modestly or moderately. However, that could change as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.125%
7.14%
-0.075
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.385%
6.415%
-0.1
Conventional 20-year fixed
6.975%
7%
-0.045
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.12%
6.145%
-0.065
30-year fixed FHA
5.98%
6.88%
-0.095
30-year fixed VA
6.165%
6.315%
-0.13
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.425%
7.675%
-0.035
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Every day that passes makes a corrective bounce (when mortgage rates rise as markets think they’ve got carried away) less likely. And it reinforces my hope that those rates are in a downward trend that could last well into next year.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
FLOAT if closing in 15 days
FLOAT if closing in 30 days
FLOAT if closing in 45 days
FLOATif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged lower to 3.90% from 3.92%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were mostly falling this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices climbed to $75.14 from $73.12 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices held steady at $2,049 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — ticked down to 77 from 78. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to decrease. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
The Federal Reserve
This morning’s Wall Street Journal (paywall) observed: “After their policy meeting last week, Fed officials released projections of at least three rate cuts [in general interest rates] next year. They have since been flummoxed that investors expect even faster and deeper cuts. The result: Confusion over when and how quickly the Fed might cut as the central bank tries to bring inflation down without a painful recession.”
This could turn into a real issue that could push mortgage rates higher, probably in the new year. Wall Street has a long and inglorious record of hearing what it wants the Fed to say rather than what the Fed actually says. And we’ve seen quite recently examples of sharp rises in mortgage rates when markets’ wishful thinking collides with reality.
Still, last week’s Fed meeting did deliver genuinely good news. And, even if mortgage rates rise when investors face the cold light of dawning reality, I’m optimistic that we’ll keep at least most of the recent gains. Just be aware that the path to lower mortgage rates is unlikely to be smooth.
Today
This morning’s economic reports cover existing home sales in November and consumer confidence in December. They’re both published too late for me to assess their likely impact on markets and mortgage rates.
They could push mortgage rates a little higher or lower, but they rarely move them far or for long.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow brings gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the third quarter of this year. This will be the third and final estimate for this number.
The second estimate put GDP growth at 5.2%, up from 2.1% in the second quarter. MarketWatch says that market expectations for tomorrow’s figure have recently been slightly scaled down to 5.1%.
If the actual number tomorrow is lower than 5.1%, that could drag mortgage rates lower. But, if it’s higher, that could push those rates upward.
Friday
We’re due November’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday. Markets might get nervous if that shows inflation rising more than expected because that could destroy the Fed’s new-found optimism.
More on what to expect from the PCE report tomorrow.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.
Freddie’s Dec. 14 report put that same weekly average at 6.95%, down from the previous week’s 7.03%. Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q4/23) and the following three quarters (Q1/24, Q2/24 and Q3/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Dec. 19 and the MBA’s on Dec. 13.
Forecaster
Q4/23
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Fannie Mae
7.4%
7.0%
6.8%
6.6%
MBA
7.4%
7.0%
6.6%
6.3%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Such a scenario would offer some reprieve to the beleaguered CRE market, he noted: “Lower rates in 2024 would relieve some pressure in CRE credit markets, making it easier to finance commercial property purchases,” Synder said. CBRE analysts forecast that elusive 2% inflation rate is close at hand: “CBRE expects inflation will decline toward the Fed’s … [Read more…]
Some Americans who are high earners, but not rich yet are opting for non-traditional mortgages.
Interest-only mortgages offer lower monthly payments, at least initially, but can be risky.
They’re best suited for buyers of higher-end property who invest their money elsewhere.
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With home prices and mortgage rates sky high, potential homeowners — even those with deep pockets — are looking for ways to ease the cost burden.
Some Americans who are high earners, but not rich yet, known as HENRYs, are opting for unusual interest-only mortgages that boost affordability, at least in the short-term. These loans allow the borrower to pay just interest and none of the principal for a certain number of years. The loans are generally reserved for more affluent buyers of higher-end property who can afford a sizeable down payment and have sufficient money saved.
There are some attractive benefits of this kind of loan. They offer lower monthly payments at first, which allow borrowers to invest the money they would otherwise spend to pay off their house on other, higher-return investments. They also allow borrowers whose incomes are expected to rise in the future to buy more expensive homes than they otherwise would be able to afford.
There are also higher risks than a conventional mortgage. Borrowers won’t gain equity in their home, beyond the down payment they made. They’re on the hook for potentially higher mortgage payments in the future, and if their home value declines, they could lose the equity they have or the ability to refinance. Some interest-only loans require borrowers to pay off the entirety of the principal once the interest-only period ends.
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When Sam, whose last name is known to Business Insider, and his wife were looking to buy a home in Brooklyn in the spring of 2022, the homes they liked largely exceeded their budget, which was between $2–$2.5 million.
But one day they got an unexpected opportunity. Their neighbors directly across the street from their rental apartment in Carroll Gardens were about to put their three-bedroom brownstone on the market. The house was exactly what they were looking for, except it was priced at $3.1 million. But their neighbors offered to sell it to them before putting it on the market. Without broker’s fees, the home would cost about $2.8 million.
Sam, a self-employed marketing consultant, was initially concerned the house was just too risky and expensive of a purchase. The future of New York City real estate was still somewhat unclear as many who fled the city when the pandemic hit were slow to return.
But when First Republic bank offered him and his wife a 40-year interest-only loan, they sprung for it. They paid a 20% down payment and locked in a low mortgage rate of between 2.6 and 2.7% for the first 10 years of the loan, and a guarantee that their rate would double at that point.
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Their monthly, interest-only mortgage payment is just under $5,000 per month, which is just a few hundred dollars more than they were previously spending on rent.
Eighteen months later, Sam and his wife are still happy with their decision. They can easily afford their payments now, are saving up for the future rate-hike, and Brooklyn real estate is booming. The couple thinks they’ll be in the house for fifteen or twenty years, at which point their kids will be through high school and they might downsize or leave the city.
“These days, it seems like a pretty safe bet that in 10 to 20 years from now, the value will be higher,” he said. “I don’t know if it’s going to skyrocket or be a little bit higher, but we don’t think it’ll go down.”
A deal for ‘sophisticated investors’
Sam and his wife are the target demographic suitable for an interest-only loan. But these mortgages can be very risky if a borrower doesn’t have sufficient funds to handle higher payments down the line, or the property loses value, in which caseborrowers have to be prepared for potentially higher interest rates after the initial stage of their loan is over.
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These loans are a “niche product” that should be reserved for high-end real estate purchases by borrowers who are “sophisticated investors,” said Chen Zhao, the head of economic research at Redfin. Since you’re not building equity in your home under an interest-only mortgage, those who take out these loans should be investing their money in other ways that are likely to give them a better return, Zhao said.
The proliferation of interest-only mortgages could also evenhurt buyers who can’t afford to take advantage of them. Because they allow affluentborrowers to buy more expensive homes, they can help inflate prices in already high-cost markets. Claes Bäckman, a researcher at the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE in Germany who has studied the introduction of interest-only mortgages in Denmark, says the loan type doesn’t significantly boost affordability or allow more young people to become homeowners.
“I think it will certainly help the buyers who can afford to get one of these, but if they are competing against other buyers who can also get an interest-only mortgage, they might not get much of a benefit in terms of affordability,” Bäckman said.
A history of predatory lending
Interest-only mortgages were much more common, especially for less-affluent borrowers, in the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. At the time, many homebuyers were offered risky loans they couldn’t afford, which ultimately led to the subprime mortgage crisis.
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After the financial crisis, the federal government passed regulations on risky mortgages, making interest-only loans much less common. But with home prices soaring and interest rates stubbornly high, buyers are again opting for riskier loans, including interest-only.
Hillary, whose last name is known to Business Insider but requested partial anonymity to protect her husband’s business, and her husband were victims of these predatory lending practices. In 2007, the couple took out an interest-only mortgage to buy a $585,000 home in San Diego. The house was down the street from Hillary’s motherand the couple wanted it to be their forever home, so they splurged. While their real estate agent warned them against taking out such a large, high-interest loan, the bank encouraged them to take on two loans without any down payment — one at 8% and the other at 9% interest.
When the financial crisis hit, Hillary’s husband, a commission-based financial advisor, saw his income plummet. Hillary, a self-employed photographer, also took a hit. Then the couple had a new baby. They were soon forced to take out loans to make their $4,000 monthly mortgage payments. When they asked their bank to modify the terms of the loan, it refused. The couple declared bankruptcy and ultimately sold the house in 2012 for just $365,000.
Looking back now, Hillary thinks she and her now ex-husband were too optimistic about their future income when they bought the house, but that her bank was reckless.
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“They clearly should never have given us a loan,” Hillary said. “But when you’re young and it’s the, quote, perfect home for you, you know, what are you supposed to do?”
She’s concerned that some buyers are now falling into a similar trap of believing they’ll be able to refinance their loans later for a better deal.
In the broader world of real estate, interest-only mortgages could be contributing to another crisis. These days, interest-only mortgages are increasingly popular among commercial real estate buyers. They made up 88% of new commercial mortgage-backed issuances in 2021 — an increase from 51% in 2013, The Wall Street Journal reported based on data from the company Trepp.
And it’s not going well for borrowers. Commercial mortgage defaults are on the rise. With interest rates so high, many office building owners aren’t able to secure new loans they can afford. In May 2023, Fitch Ratings estimated that 35% of pooled securitized commercial mortgages due between April and December of this year would be ineligible for refinancing.
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Consumer protection advocates are are concerned that homebuyers are increasingly opting for non-traditional mortgages that carry higher risks. Some borrowers are attracted to interest-only loans by the lower monthly costs, but aren’t prepared for worst-case scenarios, and to ultimately pay more to own their home.
“It’s a question of, do people understand that this is a product that’s going to be more expensive for them long term, or are they just enticed by the lower monthly payments?” Bäckman said.
Getting a mortgage should be slightly less painful in 2024.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve said it expected to cut interest rates three times next year. The Fed’s forecast brings a dose of holiday cheer to hopeful home buyers who have felt squeezed out of the market.
Mortgage rates dropped below 7%, a key psychological threshold for would-be buyers and sellers who have been paralyzed by dramatic declines in affordability since the Federal Reserve started to raise interest rates.
The average rate on the standard 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.95%, according to a survey of lenders released Thursday by mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac. Rates declined last week to just above 7%. They haven’t been below that level since August.
That could help breathe life into the beaten-down housing market, which is the part of the economy where the Fed’s rate hikes have stung Americans the most. Mortgage rates aren’t directly tied to those moves but tend to loosely follow the 10-year Treasury yield.
The discounts reflected in these deals may no longer be available.
If you like shopping at Walmart for convenience and low prices, you’ll find a lot to love about the Cyber Monday deals from the largest retailer in the U.S. On sale now are items for your kitchen, bathroom and wardrobe as well as entertaining helpers and plenty of gift ideas. Keep browsing sales in our guide to Target’s sale as well our big list of sale items from popular retailers and brands.
For early access to Walmart deals that start on Nov. 22, consider joining Walmart+. The paid membership will enable you to shop the retailer’s deals six hours before nonmembers—and potentially before popular products sell out (our writer’s favorite home power station is one of those deals). Members also gets free shipping, Paramount+ video streaming, savings on gas and other perks.
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Walmart has items for your home on sale now, from a carpet cleaner that one of our staffers recently purchased to a Lodge Dutch oven that made our best-list after extensive testing. If you’ve recently lost power at your home or want extra power when you go camping, Walmart’s price on the EcoFlow Delta is impressive. And now is definitely the time to pick up a Dyson cordless vac: These are down to near the lowest price we’ve ever seen.
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Markdowns on tech are common during Walmart’s Cyber Monday sales and this year is no exception. See great prices on trusted brands including Apple, Samsung, Sony and more. You can find additional buys in our dedicated tech deals guide.
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Walmart carries many well-known fashion and apparel brands. Right now, see cozy slippers to get you through the winter and handbags. For clothing and shoes from other retailers, don’t miss our handpicked guide with the latest deals for your wardrobe.
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The advice, recommendations or rankings expressed in this article are those of the Buy Side from WSJ editorial team, and have not been reviewed or endorsed by our commercial partners.
MGIC Investment Corp, the leading U.S. mortgage insurer, posted a larger-than-expected $1.47 billion fourth quarter loss as more homeowners fell behind on their mortgage payments.
The company lost $18.17 per share, much higher than the $8.13 per share analysts polled by Reuters had expected, and a far cry from profit of $121.5 million, or $1.47 per share, a year earlier.
For the entire year, MGIC lost $1.67 billion, or $20.54 per share, as claims almost quadrupled to $2.37 billion from $613.6 million.
Revenue for the fourth quarter was $399.1 million, up 8.7 percent from $367.2 million a year ago.
Net premiums written increased nearly 25 percent to $380.5 million during the quarter, up from $367.1 million in the same quarter in 2006.
New insurance written was $76.8 billion, compared to $58.2 billion in 2006, with $211.7 billion primary insurance in force at the end of 2007, compared with $176.5 billion the previous year.
MGIC said claims totaled $1.35 billion during the fourth quarter, up from $187.3 million a year earlier and $50 million more than it had estimated last month, with larger losses realized in places like Florida and California.
It also set aside $1.2 billion for losses related to securitizations and took a $33 million charge for collapsed subprime mortgage venture C-BASS.
The company also revealed that it had hired an advisor to explore ways to shore up capital, but noted that it has “adequate” capital to meet its claim obligations.
Starting March 3, MGIC will require at least 5 percent down on homes in so-called restricted markets, including entire states like Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada.
It’s been a terrible year for mortgage insurers, as both Radian and Milwaukee-based MGIC recorded their first ever quarterly losses.Shares of MGIC fell $2.07, or 14.60%, to $12.11 in early afternoon trading on Wall Street.
Mortgage insurance is typically required by mortgage lenders when the loan-to-value exceeds 80 percent.
Legg Mason’s Capital Management Unit disclosed that it has raised its stake in beleaguered mortgage lender Countrywide Financial to 14.9 percent of shares outstanding, up from 11.8 percent at the end of December.
The Baltimore-based company also noted that it would buy more shares if provisions were removed that prevent unsolicited purchases of more than 15 percent of the company.
According to a company spokesman, Legg Mason essentially took advantage of an arbitrage opportunity, as shares of Countrywide were trading at roughly 20 percent below the $7.80 per-share value post merger as uncertainties swirled.
In fact, shares of Countrywide are still trading at about 12 percent below the Bank of America asking price, signaling that investors believe the deal still has some hurdles to climb.
Legg Mason Value Trust mutual fund manager Bill Miller wrote in a letter that he was surprised Countrywide shareholders accepted a bid below book value and noted that recent positive action by the Fed could begin to turn things around.
“We were quite surprised by the decision to sell the company at close to a seven-year low in the stock price, and agreeing to a bid that amounts to only 30% of book value and under 3x consensus earnings for 2009,” he wrote.
He also noted that his company might vote against the proposed Bank of America merger if it’s believed that the struggling mortgage lender could go it alone.
Two weeks ago, hedge fund SRM Global, which holds about a five percent stake in Countrywide, said the proposed merger “does not provide sufficient value” to its shareholders and said it may attempt to speak with the companies and/or shareholders to negotiate a better deal.
Based on this news, and opposition from consumer advocacy groups, it doesn’t look like the merger, if it does indeed occur, will take place quietly.
Shares of Countrywide were down 6 cents, or 0.87%, to $6.84 in midday trading on Wall Street.
Update: SRM upped its stake to 5.5 percent from 5.2 percent and sent a letter to Countrywide’s board saying the company failed to act in the best interest of its shareholders.
IndyMac Bancorp posted a fourth quarter loss of $509.1 million, or $6.43 per share, compared with a profit of $72.2 million, or 97 cents per share in the same period a year earlier due to higher credit costs.
The company said it absorbed $863 million in total pre-tax credit costs during the quarter, which ultimately led to the loss.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected a much more modest loss of just $1.57 a share.
For the year, IndyMac posted a loss of $614.8 million, or $8.28 per share, compared with a profit of $342.9 million, or $4.82 per share, for all of 2006.
It was the Pasadena-based mortgage lender‘s first annual loss in its 23-year history.
“2007 was a terrible year for our industry, for IndyMac and for you, our owners,” Chief Executive Michael Perry said in his annual letter to shareholders today.
“Innovative home lending went too far,” Perry said. “All home lenders, including IndyMac, were a part of the problem, and, as IndyMac’s CEO, I take full responsibility for the mistakes that we made.”
At the same time, he noted that the loss was “consistent with nearly every other large financial institution in the mortgage lending and securitization business.”
During the quarter, the company’s total loan production was just over $12 billion, compared to $26 billion in the period a year ago.
For the full year, total loan production was $78.3 billion, down from $91.7 billion in 2006.
The company said its mortgage broker channel saw production fall by $4.7 billion, or 37 percent during the quarter, compared to a year ago, reflecting the ongoing retail push for lenders.
IndyMac’s pipeline of home loans fell 37 percent to $7.5 billion at the end of December compared to $11.8 billion as of December 31, 2006.
Non-performing assets jumped to 4.61 percent of total assets, up from just 0.63 percent a year ago, while the allowance for loan losses to total loans held for investment climbed to 2.42 percent from 0.61 percent.
The company said it expects charge-offs to “increase substantially” this year compared to 2007, but said its stockpile of credit reserves should absorb most of them.
At the end of the quarter, credit reserves for future losses totaled $2.4 billion, up from $619 million a year earlier.
“Our goal is to return IndyMac to profitability in (the second quarter) and grow our profit each quarter thereafter, and I believe that we have a realistic shot of achieving this goal,” Perry said.
The second largest independent mortgage lender also said it was suspending its $1 a year dividend “in light of current financial performance,” but would pay preferred shareholders 53 cents.
Perry projects a 2008 profit of about $13 million, or roughly 16 cents per share, compared to analyst expectations of a loss of 22 cents per share.
Shares of IndyMac were down 41 cents, or 5.39%, to $7.19 in early session trading on Wall Street.