Texas continues to outpace other states in attracting new residents, according to migration data from John Burns, with Houston, San Antonio and Fort Worth showing strong housing demand. The other top cities for in-migration include Jacksonville, Florida, Charlotte, North Carolina, and Nashville, Tennessee.
However, the Austin housing market, which boomed during the pandemic, is now seeing barely positive migration numbers, along with Phoenix, Arizona, and Las Vegas, Nevada.
According to Altos Research, the Austin metro housing market shows signs of a substantial normalization in home prices compared with the overall trends of the pandemic years and pre-pandemic years. The median sale price for a home in the Austin metro area reached a peak of $675,000 in April 2022. By April 2023, that figure had dropped by 14.07% to a median sale price of $580,000. As of August 2023, the median sale price in the Austin metro area had moderated further to $569,900.
The John Burns report shows housing demand is weak in Sacramento and Riverside-San Bernardino, California.
Meanwhile, in metros such as Denver, Seattle and Philadelphia, the concern doesn’t revolve so much about the people coming in but too many going out, as out-migration is becoming a real issue.
At the very bottom of the list, the East Bay area, Orange County, San Diego, San Jose, Miami, Washington, D.C., Boston, Chicago and San Francisco show very negative domestic out-migration. However, this exodus might be offset by international migration.
To conduct this study, John Burns monitored domestic migration trends in near real time, using postal address change forms that are current within a few months. This data excludes international migration.