A payroll tax in Washington state that is designed to establish a fund for older residents’ long-term care needs could be undone by voters this fall through a ballot initiative.
“WA Cares” is a payroll tax that is described as a “public long-term care insurance program” in which all working Washington residents contribute 0.58% of each paycheck to the associated fund. After 10 years of contributions, a long-term care benefit is accessible so long as there is an associated care need when requesting the benefit.
Those who qualify can begin accessing the benefit in July 2026, and they can access a benefit of up to $36,500 adjusted with inflation. Residents born before 1968 typically “have lower contribution requirements and benefits,” according to the state’s WA Cares Fund website.
But the mandatory payroll tax — created as part of the program by the Washington Legislature in 2019 — now faces an “existential threat” to its existence, according to advocates. A successful signature-gathering campaign has added a new voter initiative to the state’s ballot in the fall. Voters can choose to make the payroll tax voluntary.
Should that initiative be approved by Washington voters, what has been described as a “first-of-its-kind” effort to tackle issues of financial unpreparedness for long-term care needs by older Americans could be dealt a blow it would not recover from, according to advocates who wish to keep the payroll tax mandatory.
“Essentially, it’s framed as a choice, but it really kills the program,” according to state Rep. Nicole Macri (D) in a February interview with The Seattle Times. “[That’s] because like any other social insurance program like Medicare or Social Security, it depends on a broad, extremely broad, base of contributors in order for everybody to be eligible for a benefit.”
Recent polling to gauge voter interest in the initiative is not looking favorable for keeping the payroll tax mandatory. In polling conducted for the Seattle Times, 52% of likely voters would support the initiative to make the tax optional. Another 27% of likely voters said they would vote “no” on such an initiative, while 22% remain undecided.
While an overwhelming majority of Washington Republicans support the initiative (63%), so do a majority of Democrats (53%). The lowest share of support from those who identified their political affiliation came from Independents (43%).
Proponents for the campaign seeking to persuade voters to vote “no” on the initiative — and keep the payroll tax mandatory — expressed concerns about the poll’s language.
Long-term care is seen as a key attribute to allow seniors to age in place in their homes. A study by researchers at Rutgers University in New Jersey earlier this year found that home-based care is a leading outcome for older Americans, particularly as the U.S. population grows older more quickly.
While a lot of the conversation regarding the 2024 presidential election is focused on the historically high ages of the two expected major party candidates, the aging U.S. workforce often faces doubts about their own abilities that are “crudely conflating old age with physical and cognitive capacity.”
This is according to a recent NextAvenue column co-written by two aging experts: Robert Espinoza, CEO at the National Skills Coalition and a fellow at the Brookings Institution; and Leanne Clark-Shirley, president and CEO of the American Society on Aging.
Since the first presidential debate roughly two weeks ago, discussions pairing age and fitness for the presidency have dominated the political landscape. But conflating these ideas of old age and capacity to perform required tasks of a job is “wrong,” the pair writes.
“Only a person’s medical team can offer that assessment, and age alone says nothing conclusive about one’s physical and mental health,” the pair wrote. “Further, to propose age limits for holding office with no consideration for individual differences is grossly ageist and discriminatory.”
On top of this, the conversations dominating the political sphere also serve to divert attention “from the more pressing concerns” facing older people, the authors state.
“Chief among them are the profound employment barriers facing older workers, a growing population that could help address a widespread labor shortage if our government properly supported them,” the column reads. “Yet these issues are glaringly absent from the election discourse.”
The 55-and-older population encompassed roughly 14% of the U.S. labor force in 2002, but that share is expected to reach 24% by 2032. On top of this, people 75 and older are the largest-growing segment of the workforce, according to data from the Pew Research Center.
“This trend is due to positive factors, such as healthier profiles and more age-friendly jobs, and negative factors, including more rigid retirement plans and policy changes that discourage early retirement,” the authors said. “Older workers personify the future of work, and let’s face it: most of us will age into this reality if we’re not there already, so it should feel personal.”
As workers grow older, they often face discrimination based on assumptions about their age. This can lead to older workers being passed over for advancement opportunities, with the assumption that “fresh thinking” is needed or that older workers are more expensive.
“Many older workers deal with all these factors and have always worked in low-wage jobs with limited benefits — as care workers, taxi drivers, food servers, grounds maintenance workers and many others, segregated into these occupations by decades, even centuries, of racially discriminatory policies,” the column explains. “They form the backbone of our economy and are essential to its success, yet they are egregiously neglected by government at all levels.”
Inside: The answer is so obvious! Stop the assumptions with the 3 percent or 4 percent rule of retirement. Learn how much money to save for retirement today.
We all know that saving money for retirement is something we should do.
Maybe you are contributing the minimum to your 401K through work to get the match. Possibly saving money in a Roth IRA.
But, are you truly saving enough for retirement?
More than likely not.
Don’t feel like you are alone. According to a new study, only half of households actually have money saved in retirement accounts. The good news for those who have saved is the dollar amount saved for retirement has been increasing in the past 10 years.
Here is the real reason you don’t save for retirement… you have absolutely no clue how much money you need to be saved to retire.
You have tried to use all of the online retirement calculators from all of the big companies. Your results are millions of dollars different. You have no clue where to start, or what to believe.
And then you just get unmotivated because you’re like there’s absolutely no way I can make that dollar amount work.
So, What is Our Retirement Number
Personally, I completely get it this is a conversation. My husband and I have had it for years.
What is our retirement number?
What amount do we need to retire with?
And honestly, even can I actually save that much before I am too old to work?
It is all a complete unknown, it is a best-guess scenario.
There is absolutely no way for you to truly understand how much you need because there are so many things that go into it, including inflation, your savings rate, your withdrawal rate, and your anticipated expenses. So there’s a lot of variables and that’s when the variables get too confusing you don’t know which way to start.
One Guaranteed Truth…
The financial advisors believe they are the know-all-be-all with their calculations while charging you an asset management fee that is putting a drag on your overall portfolio.
And then October 27, 2020, Bill Bengen announced that instead of using the 4% rule is outdated, and now you can use a 5% rule. (Bill Bengan is a financial advisor who made the 4% rule of thumb famous 25 years ago.) So, this latest information just throws a curveball into everything that has previously been used for the past 25 years, and now you’re left wondering…
Well, I have no idea what is the proper amount I need to save for retirement.
Do you know what the amount that you need to save for retirement is?
So, let’s dig in for a little bit and we’re gonna talk about the three different percentages that are talked about the most. It’s the 3% rule, the 4% rule, and the 5% rule is one better than another. We’ll debate that and shortly.
How does Withdrawal Rate work?
But first of all, you have to realize that not everything works the way you want, so let’s show some examples before we dig into the specifics of the different rules.
Basically, the whole concept is if you save $1 million and you start withdrawing either 3%, 4%, or 5%. That withdrawal amount is the amount of income that you would live on each and every year, while the rest of your portfolio is continuing to grow and increase in value.
The ultimate, perfect-scenario goal is that you would withdraw as much as you possibly could without depleting the portfolio.
Withdrawal Rate Example:
Here are the assumptions:
Plan to spend $50,000 a year
7% rate of return on your money
Age doesn’t matter and not accounting for taxes or inflation (we want to keep this simple)
The amount you would need to save based on each of the withdrawal rates:
3 percent rule, you would need: $1,666,667
4 percent rule, you would need: $1,250,000
5 percent rule, you would need: $1,000,000
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The Withdrawal Rate Confusion
In our example, we used simple calculations that don’t account for age, taxes, or inflation and the amount you need to save for retirement is $666,667 different.
The numbers are too much for the average person to understand and have faith in.
This is why the confusion on how much to save for retirement and what model and which retirement calculator is the best.
Shortly, we are going to give you the simple answer of how much to save for retirement. But, first, a little background on the various percent rules for retirement.
3 Percent Rule
The 3% rule has gotten very popular with the FIRE movement.
The FIRE movement is Financial Independence Retire Early.
Because most of these people aren’t looking at retiring in the normal typical retirement age of 60s, they’re looking to retire in their 30s or 40s. They feel like they need to be super conservative because they are trying to estimate how much they need each month to live off their money for possibly the next 50 years.
That’s a lot of variables that you have to take into account.
The good news is you can always learn and figure out ways to make money in retirement so it’s not a complete waste, you can always go back to work because you are younger, and have youth on your side. So, is 3% a safe withdrawal rate?
The golden advice is you want to plan for the worst but hope for the best. The goal is that 3% would cover all of your necessities and basic expenses.
4 Percent Rule
Is the 4 percent rule viable?
The 4 percent rule of retirement was made famous by Bill Bengen 25 years ago (and just recently he said that number is outdated.)
The assumptions were if you withdraw 4% of your investment account every year, you will still have enough to live on throughout retirement.
This was based on what has happened in the markets, accounted for inflation, and the age you want to retire. He conducted many possible case scenarios and concluded that by only withdrawing 4 percent will make sure your money lasts. That is why it has been what is called a golden rule for retirement.
How long will my money last using the 4% rule? If you do all the calculations, it should last for at least 30 years. Obviously, you are looking at many variables of the stock market doing well and your living expenses staying low. Once again, the other big factor is what inflation will do in the future.
So, is the 4% rule that much better?
5 Percent Rule
And then, October 2020 rolls in. The breaking news is that Bill Bengen announced the 4 percent rule for retirement is too conservative and now you can actually use 5%.
So, that leaves the average person going… Okay. My head is spinning. I’m not sure how much I need to save for retirement. What is a good number?
Can I safely withdraw 5% of my investment accounts and still have enough money? That means I need less money to retire.
Can you Overcome Why Most People don’t save for Retirement?
There are too many variables, there are too many unknowns, and they don’t understand how it all works.
That is the real reason people don’t save for retirement.
I get it. I’m there with you. I feel it. I hear it from readers. But, we are going to break down some of the key items so that way you know how much you need for retirement.
And just remember, even if you messed up your numbers, the market went down, or you want to spend more in retirement than you are, then you could always go back to work. Even better, learn how to make money online for beginners, pick up a side hustle, make a little bit of extra money, and actually do something that you truly enjoy doing.
Learn how much money should I have saved by 30.
How Much do I need to Retire?
The simple answer… aim for $1,000,000 in investment accounts.
You may be able to aim lower depending on some variables which we cover shortly.
Investment accounts can include any of the following:
401K
Roth IRA
IRA
HSA (health saving account)
Brokerage Accounts
High-interest bank accounts
Real estate
You want accounts with liquidity. Things that can be bought and sold for cash. Those are the assets we are counting on how much to retire with.
Don’t use equity in your house because you need a place to live. If you want to use equity, that is fine, but your calculations just become slightly more difficult. We want simplicity.
Right now, your money goal is to reach $1,000,000 in investment accounts. Specifically in liquid net worth.
(Of course, this number may be lower if you live in a low cost of living area, plan to move with overall lower costs or another country, or have good options with lower health care costs. There have been plenty of people who retired with less and love life.)
Based on these variables, you may just need $500,000 to retire. Or somewhere in that range.
Realistic Retirement Savings for Motivation
We shared what a realistic retirement savings amount of $1 million dollars is. Is your first reaction – yikes, there is absolutely no way I can reach that amount.
However, you can!
Just break it down into smaller chunks.
For instance, make your next goal to save $100,000. You do that 10 times and you hit that realistic retirement savings amount.
If that seems like a stretch, then break it down even further. To stay motivated you can strive to save $50K or even $20K.
Break it into bite-sized manageable pieces to help you save for retirement and stay on track.
Learn what happens if you don’t save for retirement.
Best Ways to Save for Retirement
This is the basics to start saving for retirement.
You already know much should you really save for retirement. Now, you just to need to do it.
Here is the safest way to save for retirement. First, open up one or all of these accounts (pending where you are on your money journey). Then, look at investing in S&P 500 Index funds. The most highly recommended index fund for beginners is VTSAX.
1. Contribute to 401K
This is the simplest way to start saving.
Make sure you are contributing at least the minimum to your employer’s 401K.
Every year you can contribute up to a maximum amount. In 2023, an employee can contribute $22,500 to their 401k (the employer is eligible to contribute as well for a combined amount not to exceed $66,000 or 100% of your compensation, whichever is less). For the latest contribution limits, check out the IRS site.
Each year, increase your percentage by 1%. A simple way to reach maxing out your 401K.
Pro Tip: Check if your employer offers a ROTH IRA option. These are becoming more and more popular with companies. A Roth 401K will let your money grow tax-free because you pay taxes when you contribute money. If they don’t offer one, pester the human resources department.
2. Open Roth IRA
The next best option is the ROTH IRA. You want to contribute to a Roth IRA because you pay taxes upfront rather than at withdrawal like a traditional IRA.
Since ROTH IRAs have tax advantages, there are also contribution limits set by the IRS. The contribution amounts have remained the same for a couple of years now. The annual contribution limit is $6,000 per year, or $7,000 if you’re age 50 or older.
The downside to Roth IRAs… the amount you can contribute may be limited based on your income and filing status. However, for the average American, you should be able to max out the amount you can save each year.
Learn if can you have multiple Roth IRAs as it may be a smart financial move.
Pro Tip: Even if one spouse is a stay-at-home parent, you can still contribute to a Roth IRA for the non-working spouse.
3. Health Savings Account
Say what? Yes, a health savings account is on the list as a way to save for retirement. It is a great way to grow your money tax-free going in and on withdrawals.
You must have a High Deductible Health Insurance Plan to open a health savings account.
This is something you want to do and contribute the maximum amount each year. For 2023, you can contribute $3,850 for individuals and $7,750 for family coverage. Typically, the limits go up $50 each year, which helps you save more every year.
Pro Tip: This account will stay with you even when you leave your current employer and insurance. Plus you can use the HSA funds forever – even to pay Medicaid premiums. (Hopefully, nothing changes on these tax-advantaged accounts).
4. Traditional Brokerage Account
The last avenue has no tax benefits, but you are still saving money to be used later. That is what really matters.
Since there are no tax advantages to these basic brokerage amounts, there also are no limits on how much you can contribute.
This is where you would save the remaining money after you exhausted all the other methods listed above.
Side Note…
Yes, there are other ways to save for retirement. For this post and the average investor, the above-mentioned accounts are a great place to start. Once you become savvier and want to invest more money, then you can look at back door IRAs, 529s, or whole life insurance.
Saved $1 million for retirement, Now What?
Once you reach that 1 million dollars retirement mark, congratulations!!
That is a huge milestone that many people never reach. So, what is the next step?
Now, that you are closer to finally being able to live off your investments, you must start to look at the retirement calculators more seriously and factor in all of those variables (age, taxes, and inflation). It is much easier to predict the future once you have built a solid nest age and are closer to living off your investments.
Everyone started the financial independence journey at a different age and will reach their million-dollar mark at different times.
For the average person, you know learned how to save for retirement. You know what you need to do and where to start.
In this post, we took out all of the confusion on how much to save for retirement. Don’t worry about is the 4 percent rule is viable – or if it should be the 3 percent rule or the new 5% rule. The assumptions and variables will hold you back from starting. You know the dollar amount to start with, move on with that.
This simple advice for hitting your first milestone is the motivation to keep you going. Along the way, you will become savvier with finances and investing.
When it is time to move to the question of “can I retire” at such and such age, you have already taken out many of the variables, and the decision becomes more and more clear.
Take steps to reach that $1000000 mark today.
Get ahead now…
Know someone else that needs this, too? Then, please share!!
Did the post resonate with you?
More importantly, did I answer the questions you have about this topic? Let me know in the comments if I can help in some other way!
Your comments are not just welcomed; they’re an integral part of our community. Let’s continue the conversation and explore how these ideas align with your journey towards Money Bliss.
Members of Generation X are more concerned about their post-retirement ability to support the lifestyles they’ve grown accustomed to when compared with other generations — including baby boomers and millennials — according to the results of a recent survey conducted by Allianz Life.
In the company’s 2024 Annual Retirement Study, respondents indicated that 62% of Gen Xers “feel confident about being able to financially support all the things they want to do in life,” compared with 82% of baby boomers and 77% of millennials. But more than half of Gen X respondents (55%) also said they “wish that they would have saved more money for retirement,” a feeling that is more severe among Hispanic (63%) and Black (56%) members of the cohort.
“Gen Xers are reaching crunch time for retirement planning. For Gen Xers, retirement is no longer this far off idea. That can feel stressful, but by preparing now, they can create a strategy that will help them seek their ideal retirement,” Kelly LaVigne, vice president of consumer insights at Allianz Life, said in the report. “The good news is that it is never too late to prepare for retirement. You can wish you started sooner, but you’ll never wish that you waited longer.”
The most common action that the cohort is taking toward their long-term financial goals is in paying down debt (64%), building up an emergency fund (58%) and aiming to make choices that result in a material credit-score improvement (55%).
But high costs are also keeping many Gen Xers from saving more for retirement. They say that “expenses for day-to-day necessities (61%), credit card debt (40%) and housing debt (39%)” are the key culprits keeping them from saving more.
“Saving more overall is foundational to retirement,” Lavigne added. “However, Gen X may need to take this a step further and remember that a retirement strategy isn’t just about one big final number in the bank. Once you retire, you are going to need to draw from those assets for income.
”A sound retirement income strategy will help use your assets efficiently and include contingencies for risks that can cause you to spend down savings faster than anticipated. You need to ensure the money lasts.”
Despite the difference a long-term plan can make, few Gen Xers employ one, the study found. Only 35% of Gen X respondents said they use the services of a financial professional, compared to 46% of millennials and more than half of baby boomers. But Gen Xers are also thinking more about retirement than they have before, the results found.
“Nearly two in three (63%) say one of their top three goals in the next five years is to save enough and make plans to live a comfortable retirement,” the report stated. “This increased from 56% in 2023. Gen Xers who are Asian/Asian Americans (68%) were more likely to say this than white (61%), Hispanic (61%), and Black/African American Gen X respondents (55%).”
Older members of Gen X are increasingly approaching retirement age. Most researchers agree that the generation begins around the mid-1960s, and those born in 1965 will turn 59 in 2024.
While most members of the cohort are too young to qualify for a Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), several leading reverse mortgage lenders offer proprietary reverse mortgages that allow the eligible borrowing age to be as young as 55 in some states.
In regards to your recent “When to Take Social Security” article, you left something out. You can take Social Security early (say, age 62), then invest that money, and your investment will end up better than if you had waited on Social Security until age 67 or age 70.
Interesting! But does the math work? Let’s dive in. Should you take Social Security early and invest it?
What Kind of “Returns” Do You Get For Waiting on Social Security?
Let’s start by looking at Social Security. What kind of “return on investment” do you receive by delaying your Social Security decision?
There’s no easy way to do this today without a spreadsheet, so we will use this Google Sheet to show you some math. (I keep the original file pristine so all readers see the same numbers, but you can go to File –> Make a Copy to create your own copy of the file to play around with.)
For starters, we need to understand how retirees’ benefits change as they age. Depending on their birth year, today’s retirees reach their “Full Retirement Age” (FRA) at 66 or 67 years old. Depending on the age at which they apply for Social Security, they’ll receive a certain percentage of their full benefits, described in the table below.
To make the math easy, we will assume our retiree’s Primary Insurance Amount (PIA)…aka the amount you receive if you wait until FRA…is $1000 per month. So “100%” on the table above equals $1000 per mont
The longer our retiree waits, the higher their monthly payments will be. But what does that look like as an “investment?” And how does inflation factor in?
What About Inflation?
The Social Security Administration adjusts everybody’s Social Security payments yearly to account for inflation. This “cost of living adjustment” is often shortened to “COLA.”
The average COLA adjustment since 1975 has been 3.66%. We need to include that in our spreadsheet too.
Baseline Analysis – No Investments Yet
Let’s start with a baseline analysis. We’ll examine a series of retirees who collect their Social Security monthly, and immediately spend it. They make no investments with their Social Security cash flow. We could conceptualize this as hiding those dollars underneath their mattresses.
We’ll compare results by looking at the total dollar amounts collected over time. This will be our baseline analysis. You can follow along on the spreadsheet tab labeled “No Investment Return (Yet) – Nominal Dollars Only”
The results: in this scenario, early collection only makes sense for a retiree who dies before age 74. This should make sense. We know that delaying Social Security makes more and more sense the longer someone lives.
Let’s add in investment returns.
Analysis 1: Investing in a 4.7% Savings Account
Let’s consider a retiree who takes all of their Social Security income and deposits it into a savings account bearing 4.7% annual interest.
Why 4.7%? That’s the average overnight Federal Funds rate since 1960, and modern-day high-yield savings accounts tend to offer interest rates that are closely correlated to the Fed Funds rate.
Note: if your personal pile of cash isn’t in a high-yield savings account, you should ask yourself why that is…
The results: if you pass away at age 77 or earlier, collecting earlier makes sense. Otherwise, waiting until FRA or later likely makes sense. This is no different than “traditional” Social Security advice.
Analysis 2: Investing in a “Standard” 60/40 Portfolio
What if our retirees put their money in a tried-and-true 60/40 portfolio?
From 1950 until today, that kind of diversified 60/40 portfolio has returned an average of 9.3% per year.
The results: Whoa! As shown on the “A2” tab, collecting as early as possible makes sense for anyone who would pass away before age 88.
We know, on average, most 62 years olds are going to pass away well before age 88. The smart, probabilistic thing to do then, is collect Social Security as early as possible and invest it in something like a 60/40 portfolio (or, something with greater returns).
But wait…because I’ve only showed you half the story. And that’s a major problem.
Big Problem: What’s the Risk?
If we zoom out on reader DT’s idea as originally stated, we should confidently conclude: OF COURSE it makes sense! If you have sufficiently high investment returns, you should always start as early as possible.
Even if the benefit of delaying Social Security was 20% per year, but I had an investment that paid me 40% per year, I’d rather start collecting as soon as possible and get the money invested. Given sufficiently high returns, you always want to get the compound growth started.
But we must return, once again, to a foundational pillar of investing and oft-repeated maxim of The Best Interest: Risk and return are intrinsically connected.Returns are not “free.” They are compensation for taking on investment risk.
Whenever an investor compares returns alone, without also comparing the risks involved, they’re making an incomplete analysis. DT’s original question only considers return. It doesn’t consider risk.
What Comparison Makes Sense?
The benefits of delaying Social Security are guaranteed by the U.S. government. That’s very low risk. What kind of investment risk should we compare that to?
I see two viable options.
First, why does Warren Buffett invest all of Berkshire Hathaway’s extra cash into U.S. Treasuries, instead of an S&P 500 index fund? Doesn’t he know the S&P 500 has much better long-term returns?!
Answer: U.S. Treasuries are as risk-free as anything in the investing universe, backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. As long as Uncle Sam pays debts, U.S. treasuries are risk-free. The S&P 500 is far from risk-free, and Buffett knows it. He wants his cash to be safe and ready for deployment at a moment’s notice. The S&P 500 cannot fulfill that need.
The first logical comparison today, then, is to use a true “risk-free” rate as our investment return. Something like a high-yield bank account (FDIC insured) or short-term U.S. Treasury is appropriate. Conveniently, we already did that in Analysis #1, where our conclusion is no different than traditional Social Security advice: the “break even” point occurs in the late 70s.
Note: this is reason for the concept of “risk-adjusted returns.”To compare only the returns of two investments is not an apples-to-apples comparison.
The second option is to show the downsides of Analysis #2. That is, to show how 9.3% per year from a 60/40 portfolio is far from a guarantee. More specifically, I’d like to show how the downside risk of a 60/40 portfolio could turn our result on its head. What happens if we suffer some bad markets during our early Social Security period?
Looking at historical returns, a 60/40 portfolio has had 10-year periods with returns below 2% per year. What if we started our Social Security timeline with that kind of low return, and then made up for it at the end of the analysis? That’s what I show on our spreadsheet on the A3 tab.
The results? The 60/40 “solution” comes with risks! In this scenario, “taking Social Security early and investing it” only worked out if our retiree died before age 75. That’s not a good outcome. Doubly so if Social Security is a safety net or backstop in your financial plan.
To Apply or Not Apply
If your Social Security is “play money” in your financial plan, and you’re ok with risking a loss, then I can see the merit and appeal of DT’s proposal. You can apply for Social Security early, invest it (reasonably), and the odds are in your favor that you’ll end up in a good spot.
But it’s no guarantee.
And the entire point of the Social Security system is to provide a guaranteed benefit to retirees. If Social Security plays even a minor role in your financial plan, I would strongly discourage putting that money at investment risk to eek out extra returns.
When we make a level comparison by using a risk-free rate, like in Analysis #1, we see there is no net benefit to taking Social Security early to invest it.
Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed this article, join 8000+ subscribers who read my 2-minute weekly email, where I send you links to the smartest financial content I find online every week.
-Jesse
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Only 15 percent of U.S. adults believe the nation will be able to adequately care for its aging population, and nearly three-quarters (73%) of adults under the age of 65 are concerned that the Medicare program may not exist by the time they are able to qualify for it. This is according to survey results released this week by Gallup.
In conjunction with health care nonprofit West Health, the organizations released their 2024 Survey on Aging in America report based on data compiled from both traditional mail and web-based surveys from Nov. 13, 2023 to Jan. 8, 2024.
Concerns about the solvency of the Medicare program are growing. Nearly three-quarters of survey respondents are worried that Medicare will not be there for them when they are able to qualify for it, up from 67% in 2022. This share rose most acutely among those ages 50 to 64, according to the survey results.
But concerns over Medicare pale in comparison to the level of concern related to the Social Security program, with 80% of respondents under 62 and 86% of people ages 40 to 49 afraid it will not exist by the time they can begin taking benefits.
“Threats to Medicare and Social Security loom large, and people are worried policymakers won’t do enough to protect and strengthen them,” Timothy Lash, president of West Health, said in the report. “These safety net programs are part of the fabric of aging that millions of older Americans rely upon, so any potential disruption or question mark around them is cause for alarm and deserving of greater attention and action from policymakers.”
Despite population trends showing that the U.S. is growing older at a faster rate, most respondents do not feel that the U.S. government is prioritizing policy issues that impact care for the elderly.
“When asked in the survey how much the government prioritizes issues affecting older Americans, 74% say ‘not very much’ or ‘not at all,’” the results explained. “This sentiment is felt by 80% of those 65 and older. Over half (57%) of Americans report they are either ‘somewhat more likely’ (37%) or ‘much more likely’ (20%) to support a candidate for public office that makes issues affecting older Americans a top priority.”
Such a sentiment increases with the age of the respondent and is highest (77%) among those ages 65 or older, the results showed.
A vast majority of respondents also said that the U.S. will not be able to adequately care for its aging population. This sentiment is compounded by 2018 U.S. Census Bureau data showing that Americans ages 65 and older will outnumber those under the age of 18 for the first time in 2034 (77 million to 76.5 million). This would mark the first such occurrence in U.S. history and impacts nearly one-quarter of the country’s total population.
The full survey included a sample of 5,149 adults from all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Panelists who are 65 or older “were oversampled to increase the stability of results for this segment of the population,” Gallup explained. Qualitative interviews followed up the initial responses over a few weeks in March.
Almost nineteen years into early retirement now, I’ve come to realize that the complete freedom of this lifestyle can be a double-edged sword.
You’ve already heard me raving plenty about the upside: having the freedom to raise a son from the day he was born to beyond his eighteenth birthday with no compromises. And then to put thousands of hours into everything else I value as well: family, health, friends, adventures, building stuff, and even writing the occasional blog post. No complaints about any of this.
But if I can indulge you to play me a brief Tiny Violin of First World Problems solo, even this perfect life comes with one flaw: I never have to do anything I don’t want to do.
To most people, this sounds like a dream come true. Especially if you combine total freedom with plenty of money, life is just a non-stop blissful playground of self actualization, right?
Well, maybe, but maybe not. In reality, the answer depends on who you are.
Freedom and money reveal a person’s true strengths and weaknesses, and the result is a spectrum with “Unlimited drugs and booze on the couch” at one end, and “Create and manage a series of nonprofit foundations which employ thousands of people to research and invest in medical advances and clean energy” at the other.
For most of my journey so far, I seem to have found the balance pretty naturally. My Dad job was very intense for the first decade, but somehow I also had time to build and restore quite a few houses in the neighborhood, take plenty of intense trips to interesting places, give some talks and make some videos, and still write a few hundred blog posts.
But in these last few years, I have started slowing down, and it has become more and more difficult to wrangle and focus myself to get these things to happen as often.
Instead of constantly bouncing around the construction site building cool things, or falling into laser focus on the keyboard finishing an article that I just had to share with you, I found myself retiring to the couch earlier and earlier each afternoon, seeking distraction on the phone and wishing I had the energy and focus to do those other more enjoyable things.
So I fought back, by learning more about health and wellness. Trying to study and train my way into more energy and focus and motivation. And you’ve seen some of the results here, in articles I’ve shared about daily habits, steering clear of excessive comfort, and more.
And all of these things really work, IF you take the knowledge and actually put it into action. And therein lies the problem:
I kept learning effective new things, and successfully incorporating them into my life. They would work for a while, but gradually my brain would invent various excuses to stop doing them consistently, leaving me with plenty of knowledge but far too little accomplishment to show for it.
Until finally, just a few months ago, I realized that I had been sabotaging my own progress by turning my biggest life advantage into a disadvantage:
I have been using my freedom too much – in order to avoid doing things that I didn’t feel like doing.
See, freedom is great if it frees you from leaving your children at 5am so you can drive an hour through a traffic jam to sit in an office building for nine hours. But that same freedom goes to waste if you then just plunk the kids down in front of a playlist of cheap cartoons while you lounge in the corner to scroll Facebook all day.
You need to use it to do things that are even more valuable than the job you just quit. And if you can’t do that, you might as well just keep the damned job.
This is what I was doing, while lying about it to myself. I would focus on the easy things which are still good for me, like taking care of the house or hanging out with friends who live nearby. But I avoid doing the harder things – which for me means the things that require more planning, energy or focus. Even though these are the things that allow me to lead the life I enjoy most.
Let’s use workouts as an easy example. I already know that on a minute-for-minute basis, this is the single most effective thing almost anybody can do with their time because it drastically improves every other area of life. But despite knowing this, I was still following this pattern:
“I want to get in a really good weight training workout today. Because I know it’s the best thing I can possibly do for my health and wellness. But I don’t feel like doing a workout because it’s hard. So I’ll try to grease the wheels for myself so it’s easier to achieve. I’ll pick the perfect time of day when the weather is nice, and my energy level is high. I’ll set up my gym in advance the night before. And when that golden moment of perfect conditions hits, I’ll hit the gym!“
But between you and me, that moment didn’t always come. Some weeks I’d achieve it 2-3 times, some weeks I’d get “busy” and make excuses like “well at least I walked a lot today”. Some days I would complete a great workout, but when recording it in the journal I’d see that the previous one was over a week ago.
And the results of this lackluster effort were exactly what you’d expect: lackluster fitness.
Then something changed and I learned that there’s a much better way to get those workouts done. It’s by replacing the long, meandering, frankly wussypants dialog above with this one:
I want to work out today. I don’t feel like it. ^^^ AHA!! I JUST CAUGHT MYSELF TRYING TO SELF SABOTAGE! ^^^ I am now already putting on my shoes and walking to the gym.
I’m using workouts as an example because this is the behavior I managed to change most successfully, but the exact same technique applies to everything else that you or I want to do, but fail to do regularly.
The key is learning to watch over yourself like an Eagle and identify that exact moment of hesitation.
And then instead of using it as a trigger for excuses, you use it as a trigger for action.
It’s so counterintuitive at first, but then obvious in retrospect. Hesitance feels shitty in the moment, and it really can ruin your life if you listen to it too often. But the ultimate solution is usually to run directly towards, rather than away from, the stuff you don’t want to do.
So really, Hesitation can be the ultimate life coach.
Using Extremely Badass People as Fuel
As part of writing this article, I shared the idea around with friends to test it out first. And I was initially surprised to get mixed results. About half of them could relate with me: they felt they were underachieving in life and wanted to do more. The other half though I was crazy: these people feel they are already doing too much, raising multiple kids and managing multiple businesses and training for ironman triathlons in the mountains.
The overachievers go through life nicely buzzed but often stressed. When hearing them describe their schedules, I was absolutely not envious. At the same time, they weren’t impressed with my schedule either because it’s too easy. We could both benefit from making adjustments towards the center.
Enter Goggins
Impressive overachiever friends are one thing, but the thing that really flipped the switch for me was hearing a podcast interview with our planet’s most extreme example of driving yourself beyond your former limits, David Goggins.
I learned about his life story with a mix of awe and horror. Severely beaten as a child, he grew up with a looming wall of psychological demons and issues, but his reaction was the unique part: he has been driven to compulsively seek out and overcome extreme hardship, not just to unimaginable levels but hundreds of times beyond that.
From pushing through several near-death experiences just to qualify for a Navy SEALS career, to breaking his own legs, heart and lungs from the constant exertion of things like running 240 miles over four days without sleeping, to setting a world record of 4025 bar pull ups over 24 hours (shredding his hands to look like ground beef in the process), the man does things I would never have thought are even close to possible for a human.
And that flipped a switch for me, by putting my own incredibly easy, under-achieving life into perspective.
Because while I absolutely do not want any part of the Goggins life, and I’ll would gladly live my life never having run more than 10 miles at a single stretch, I do find it incredibly helpful to learn that pretty much all of our barriers are entirely mental, not physical or placed upon us by the outside world.
Sure, we do have different starting points and different amounts of luck. But instead of thinking of life like this:
I now realize that things are more like this:
And that’s a really empowering way to think about life, that feels like the sky has opened way up.
Ongoing Inspiration
So the podcast was just an introduction. I wrote down a particularly concise quote “You already fuckin’ know what to do.” on a piece of cardstock, stuck it to my bathroom mirror, and started acting on it immediately.
Suddenly, I was able to hit the gym every single day because I had two ways to approach it: wanting to put in a workout, and not wanting to put in a workout, either of which became a trigger to work out immediately.
And of course, once I finally put in the effort, it started working. Even though I’ve been sorta into this type of training since I was a teenager, I have mostly floated along on a plateau for years. But with this change in attitude,I gained ten pounds of lean weight over the first four months, returning to the strength and flexibility that I had at age 25, and every single joint in my body feels like it has been upgraded to a study, well oiled spring.
I also used the “catch yourself at the moment of hesitance” to get myself to run instead of walk more often (over 20 runs since I got back to Colorado last month), get over to the MMM-HQ coworking space for more work and socializing visits, and even to sit back down at the computer to write this post for you. While I’ve found that too much blogger work (and internet “success”) is a bad thing, there is still a right level that works for me. But it takes a lot of discipline to be willing to do it, because of all the other easier and more thrilling activities I could be doing with this same stretch of time.
Refilling the Inspiration Tank
For me, fully internalizing this one powerful piece of inspiring profanity has been transformative. But I still find that returning regularly to the well makes all this work even better. So I downloaded both of the Goggins audiobooks and worked through them in little chunks on my morning walks over the period of a month. Then I moved on to Peter Attia’s Outlive, and Jocko Willink’s Extreme Ownership.
While the intellectuals fret about the perils of “Bro Science” or the “Toxic Masculinity” of today’s tribe of health podcasters and question their motivation, I simply absorb the messages that work for me and discard the rest. Find people who make you reach a little higher, and feed on their energy.
And for me, being exposed to successful, strong, athletic people who squeeze a lot of work out of themselves is a big source of inspiration. It helps me do more with my day, which is exactly what works for me right now at this phase of life.
In early January 2024, I wrote an answer to reader-of-the-blog Vince’s question about his retirement portfolio. A quick summary of that article is:
If Vince’s portfolio is $4.2M and his annual spending needs are $100,000, he’ll be entering retirement following (essentially) a “2.38% Rule.” That’s way more conservative than the classic 4% Rule.
He doesn’t need to expose himself to undo risk. 60% stocks, 55% stocks, 50% stocks…Vince will be successful in any of these portfolios. Since he has “won the game” of career financial success, he can “stop playing the game” by taking some of his chips off the table a.k.a. reducing his exposure to risk assets (stocks).
Vince wrote back! He asked this week:
If the market goes down, should I perform my annual rebalance into stocks, or because we have 20 years of spending in our fixed income portion of our portfolio, should we only rebalance into bonds from now on when our equities get too high. It may come back to living comfortably vs. passing on more money to heirs. (I choose the former).
Vince
Ahh! Rebalancing. Let’s dive in.
Two Sentences on Rebalancing
Rebalancing is the act of adjusting the asset allocation within an investment portfolio (how much in stocks? how much in bonds? etc.) to maintain the desired level of risk and return.
To learn more, here’s a deep dive on the topic of rebalancing.
Vince’s Question, Summarized
This is such an interesting question!
Vince is asking:
Should Vince’s rebalancing go in both directions?
If stocks are up compared to bonds, should Vince sell stocks to buy more bonds?
If stocks are down compared to bonds, should he sell bonds to buy more stocks?
Why does it matter? Because part of Vince’s portfolio approach is that his bond allocation represents 20 years’ worth of spending in his portfolio. He’s not measuring in percentages! He’s measuring in years’ worth of spending.
So, in essence, Vince is asking: should he rebalance, even if doing so results in him having “fewer years of bonds” than he’s comfortable with?
We need to understand two different schools of thought regarding portfolio construction. These two schools are definitely similar but with slight, nuanced differences.
The first is the “bottoms-up, bucket method” described on the blog before. It recommends an investor assign a timeline to every dollar in their portfolio, then align those timelines with appropriate levels of risk in investment assets. The money with a 6-month timeline needs to be in cash or ultra low-risk Treasury notes. The money with a 30-year timeline should be in higher risk assets (like stocks) in search of greater returns.
The other common approach is the “expected risk, expected return” method. This approach uses historical data and the investor’s unique risk appetite (a combination of their age, their cashflow needs, their unique mental approach to losing money, etc.) to hone in on the “right” allocation for them. Younger, riskier investors can stomach more stocks, while older, risk-averse investors should own more bonds, etc.
Ideally, the portfolio’s future “expected returns” are then used to test the validity of the overall financial plan (e.g. via Monte Carlo simulation).
Which Method is “Right?”
Which method is right?
Both methods work. And, in theory, both should lead to very similar outcomes. The two methods differ more in mindset than in “brass tacks.”
I prefer the “bottoms-up, bucket method” because it puts planning first (“give the dollar a job and a timeline”) and then determines appropriate investments. I used that approach in my original response to Vince. He is also using that method in his new question today. Vince feels particularly safe with 20 years’ worth of spending in fixed income. Those dollars have timelines, and he’s built an appropriate cash, CD, and bond ladder for those timelines.
Is It Right to Rebalance?
Should Vince rebalance? Let’s start by using some reasonable numbers to add color to Vince’s question.
Let’s say Vince needs $100,000 per year from his portfolio. And, based on his personal risk tolerance, he wants 20 years of that annual spending in bonds**. Easy math. That’s $2 million in bonds.
**For what it’s worth, most of the time for most investors, their timelines beyond 10 years should not be in bonds. The math simply says otherwise – that money should be in a higher risk asset, like stocks.
But finance is personal. And many retirees are acutely aware of the fact that “this is all the money I have!” Extra caution – aka extra fixed income – is understandable. It’s helps the investor sleep at night…return on sleeplessness!!! And as long as that extra fixed income doesn’t damage the portfolio’s probability of success, I’m ok with it.
Ok. $2 million in bonds, meaning the rest of Vince’s $4.3M portfolio (as of this writing) is in stocks. That’s $2.3M in stocks. That’s a 55% stock, 45% bond allocation.
Next, we need hypothetical returns.
Let’s say over the rest of 2024, bonds provide their expected 5% interest while stocks drop 8%. But Vince withdraws $100,000 (from bonds, because that’s why they’re there) to support his annual expenditures. Vince’s portfolio will shift to $2.1M in stocks, $2.0M in bonds.
That’s a 51% stock, 49% bond portfolio. Should Vince rebalance to 55% / 45%?! Let’s go back to first principles. Why did Vince end up 55/45 in the first place?
Because he wanted 20 years of bonds to cover his next 20 years of expenses, and everything thereafter went to stocks. And because his financial plan appears to be perfectly successful with that portfolio.
We should look through that exact same lens when considering rebalancing.
Does Vince still need 20 years of bonds to sleep at night? Or, with one more year in the rearview mirror, is he comfortable with 19 years of bonds? This is a mental/personal question.
Depending on that answer, does Vince need more/fewer bonds than he has right now?
And finally, does his financial plan’s probability of success change depending on his rebalancing? This is a math/brass tacks question.
Based on Vince’s investing rationale, his rebalancing decision is a function of bond prices.“I said I needed ~20 years of bonds to sleep at night; do I have them?”
The stock portion of his portfolio has little to do with that! If stocks go up 30%, but he still has 20 years of bonds, I don’t think he should rebalance into even more bonds.
Off the Balance Beam
As asset prices move, our portfolio allocations shift like desert sand beneath our feet. Our targeted risk and return can veer off course and our financial plan’s likelihood of success can decay. These are reasons to rebalance.
However, rebalancing isn’t always needed, depending on your portfolio and the unique rationale of your financial plan. As in Vince’s case, some market movements create more rebalancing needs than others.
Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed this article, join 8000+ subscribers who read my 2-minute weekly email, where I send you links to the smartest financial content I find online every week.
-Jesse
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Retirement at 65 has been a longstanding norm for U.S. workers, but older investors believe that not only is such an outcome unfeasible, but they’re likely to face more challenging retirements than their parents or grandparents.
This is according to recently released survey results from Nationwide, with a respondent pool that included 518 financial advisers and professionals, as well as 2,346 investors ages 18 and older with investable assets of $10,000 or more. The survey follows other ongoing research into the baby boomer generation as it approaches “Peak 65.”
The investors included a subset of 391 “pre-retirees“ between the ages of 55 and 65 who are not retired, along with subsets of 346 single women and 726 married women, Nationwide explained of its methodology.
Seven in 10 of the pre-retiree investors said that the norm of retirement at age 65 “doesn’t apply to them,” while 67% of this cohort also believe that their own retirement challenges will outweigh those of preceding generations.
Stress is changing the perceptions of retired life, especially for those who are closest to retirement, the results suggest.
“Four in 10 (41%) pre-retirees said they would continue working in retirement to supplement their income out of necessity, and more than a quarter (27%) plan to live frugally to fund their retirement goals,” the results explained. “What’s more, pre-retirees say their plans to retire have changed over the last 12 months, with 22% expecting to retire later than planned.”
Eric Henderson, president of Nationwide Annuity, said that previous generations who observed a “smooth transition” into retired life do not appear to be translating to the current generation making the same move.
“Today’s investors are having a tougher time picturing that for themselves as they grapple with inflation and concerns about running out of money in retirement,” Henderson said in a statement.
The result is that more pre-retirees are changing their spending habits and aiming to live more inexpensively. Forty-two percent of the surveyed pre-retiree cohort agreed with the idea that managing day-to-day expenses has grown more challenging due to rising costs of living, while 27% attributed inflation as the key reason they are saving less for retirement today.
Fifty-seven percent of respondents said that inflation “poses the most immediate challenge to their retirement portfolio over the next 12 months,” while 41% said they were avoiding unnecessary expenses like vacations and leisure shopping.
Confidence in the U.S. Social Security program has also fallen, the survey found.
“Lack of confidence in the viability of Social Security upon retirement (38%) is a significant factor influencing pre-retirees to rethink or redefine their retirement planning strategies,” the results explained. “Over two-fifths (43%) are not counting on Social Security benefits as much as previously expected, and more than a quarter (27%) expect to receive less in benefits than previously anticipated.”
The survey was conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Nationwide in January 2024.
I have been in the mortgage industry for more than two decades and have been working with reverse mortgages for about 12 of those years. Working in this space for so long, I thought I knew the ins and outs of a reverse mortgage, but it wasn’t until I experienced one firsthand that some things really hit home for me.
So many people have questions about reverse mortgages: how do they work? Are they the right choice? Can there be downsides? Since reverse mortgages generally are not talked about like traditional forward mortgages are, I want to walk through my experience with my parents’ reverse mortgage and talk about lessons I learned — even as someone who already had inside knowledge.
What happened
There are so many reasons that homeowners may seek out a reverse mortgage: funding retirement, sending kids to college, financing large purchases during retirement and the list goes on.
For my parents, specifically, they were aging and approaching retirement and were simply looking for ways to be more financially secure. They had retirement income but wanted an extra layer of financial protection while eliminating their mortgage payment.
This created a win-win for my parents and is a common reason older homeowners use a reverse mortgage: to leverage their home equity.
What I know
As someone who has worked in reverse for a long time, I knew that a reverse mortgage would give them peace of mind without putting their house at risk. A line of credit would simply allow them a safety net if the need ever arose.
I also knew a reverse mortgage would be a “set it and forget it” option, as there would be minimal interaction with the servicer — no mortgage payments, no due dates, no late payments, no phone calls, etc. For my parents, I knew it was important that they didn’t have a ton of back and forth to worry about or any additional due dates they needed to remember.
What I learned
As someone who was already well-versed in reverse, I knew there was still more to learn especially now that it was personal. I believe that experience is one of the best teachers and I am hopeful that my experience helps reverse lenders better serve their borrowers.
The first and most important lesson I learned is that borrowers will need education. In both forward and reverse lending, it’s common to have first-time borrowers that need to learn about the process they’re going through. While reverse mortgages are meant to be hands off, it was helpful to be hands on with helping my parents understand their loan options.
In my parents’ case, they faced a cultural/linguistic barrier that I was happy to help with, however, there were elements of a reverse mortgage that they – or anyone – would need some help to understand. For example, when they got their first annual recertification letter from the loan servicer, it worried them. They were not sure what it meant or what they should do about it.
After I explained the purpose and that it was routine, they were more comfortable and knew it would be coming each year.
Helping provide answers
Occasionally, they would have other questions they needed help with. For the borrowers that don’t have family that is a resource on reverse, they need to know they can reach out to their lender or servicer with questions. The way reverse works isn’t common knowledge for most people, so a little assistance and a little patience goes a long way.
Another lesson I learned is that reverse mortgages create a softer landing. This is something I already knew, but my personal experience really drove this idea home. Not only did their reverse mortgage help my parents during retirement, but it also helped my dad financially when my mom passed away.
Additionally, the relationship with the loan servicer after both my parents passed away did not create a huge burden on our family. Reverse mortgages allow you time to settle affairs after a homeowner passes away – it’s not like a traditional “forward” mortgage where a mortgage payment is due soon and, if not paid, late payment fees can start adding up.
Not to mention, the forward mortgage loan servicer starts to call your parents’ phone number looking to reach the borrower for a payment. None of those pressures exists with a reverse mortgage.
Settling the loan
As someone with loved ones who had a reverse mortgage, while you do have time after someone passes away, you still need to be mindful that the loan needs to be settled. Staying in touch with the servicer is recommended. Keep in mind that the estate has the option to sell or refinance the loan, the same as any borrower would with a traditional forward mortgage.
So much of these were things I already knew about reverse mortgages, but they came to life for me in a new way by helping my own family. After seeing it firsthand, I still strongly believe that reverse mortgages can be a great financial tool as part of an overall financial planning strategy.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Reverse Mortgage Daily and its owners.
To contact the author of this story: George Morales at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Clow at [email protected]