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Unemployment

Apache is functioning normally

June 6, 2023 by Brett Tams

Today, we stand at 156,105,000, so I think we are still in make-up mode until we reach a range acceptable to a fast economic recovery.

image

That’s why the jobs data has beaten expectations 14 months in a row. What the U.S. has that other countries don’t is a massive young workforce. While population growth is slowing here, we have the demographic muscle that other countries don’t have — if we didn’t have that, our economic discussion would be different.

image-1

Now let’s look at the labor market on all fronts from the data we got this week to get a comprehensive view of the labor market today. On Friday the BLS reported job growth came in at 339,000, with positive revisions, while the unemployment rate went higher, as there was a drop in self-employed workers.

From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 339,000 in May, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, government, health care, construction, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance.

Hours worked have fallen in the last few months, and wage growth is slowing. The fear of 1970s-style inflation was that wages could grow out of control in a tight labor market. In theory, 2022 and 2023 are tight labor markets and wage growth is slowing down. This trend should continue for the next 12 months as well.

image-2

Here is a breakdown of that data for those aged 25 and older:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 5.7% (2 months ago, 4.8%)
  • High school graduate and no college: 3.9%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.2%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.1%.

The noticeable data line here is that the unemployment rate for those without a high school education is up almost 1% from two months ago.

image-3

Here is the breakdown of the jobs created this month, another big month for the government, which typically doesn’t continue at this pace. Construction labor has held up very well, even though housing permits have been falling for some time. The backlog from COVID-19 has been a jobs program for the U.S. as we are still slowly growing the housing completion data.

image-4

So the BLS jobs report is still pushing along, while wage growth is slowing down. Jobs Friday is one piece of the labor pie — we have two other data lines that we always need to keep an eye on to know the health of the labor market: job openings and jobless claims.

As the only person on Earth who talked about job openings data getting to 10 million in this recovery, I am surprised that job openings data is still around that mark. But that is off the recent highs of 12 million.

image-5

At this point of the economic expansion, I am putting more weight on jobless claims data than job openings (JOLTS). For me, the Fed doesn’t pivot, or the 10-year yield doesn’t break under 3.21%, until jobless claims break over 323,000 on the four-week moving average, and that isn’t happening either.

As we can see below, the Gandalf line in the sand has held up the entire year, even though it was tested many times.

image-6

As we can see below, the jobless claims four-week moving average is still far from breaking over 323,000. I chose that number using many different variables as I think when we crack about that level, it will be noticeable to everyone — even the Fed — that the labor market has broken.

From the St. Louis Fed: Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits increased by 2,000 in the week ended May 27, to 232,000. The four-week moving average declined, to 229,500.

image-8

It’s important to understand the labor dynamics of this economic expansion. We had such a shock in the economy with COVID-19 and a strong labor market recovery that the make-up labor demand, which doesn’t get talked about much, is a significant reason we still see healthy numbers.

Also, it’s essential to understand the demographic difference now and what we had to deal with after 2008. The Baby Boomers are leaving the labor market, and every month that happens, they need to be replaced if demand is growing. This is why having a healthy number of younger workers not only helps with that but also provides replacement consumers, as those who leave the labor market tend to consume a bit differently than younger workers.

At this stage of the economic cycle jobless claims is the data line that matters most. Once jobless claims break above 323,000, then and only then I believe we can talk about a Fed pivot — first in their language and then possibly with rate cuts.

The Federal Reserve is scared to death of the 1970s inflation, and they genuinely believe that breaking the labor market is the best way to prevent that type of inflation from happening. As a country, we are fighting against a group of people stuck in the wrong decade with their economic mindset on inflation.

Source: housingwire.com

Posted in: Paying Off Debts, Real Estate, Unemployment Tagged: 10-year yield, 1970s, 2, 2022, 2023, About, All, average, baby, baby boomers, Benefits, best, big, BLS, boomers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, business, College, construction, Consumers, country, covid, COVID-19, data, death, economic recovery, Economy, education, Employment, expectations, fed, Federal Reserve, Financial Wize, FinancialWize, government, Grow, growth, health, Health care, healthy, hours, Housing, Housing market, Housing permits, hwmember, in, Inflation, Insurance, job, jobs, jobs report, labor market, language, Make, market, markets, mindset, More, Moving, or, Other, percent, Permits, pie, rate, reach, Real Estate, rose, School, self-employed, social, St. Louis, stage, statistics, Style, The Economy, the fed, time, Transportation, trend, under, Unemployment, unemployment rate, wages, will, workers, wrong, young

Top 5 Problems With the Unemployment Rate

March 24, 2023 by Brett Tams

The unemployment rate gets plenty of media coverage. This ratio represents the percentage of people in the labor force without jobs who’ve been actively looking for work within a four-week period. Many people believe that it’s a good indication of … Continue reading →

The post Top 5 Problems With the Unemployment Rate appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.

Posted in: Financial Planning, Unemployment Tagged: 2, 2016, 2022, 429, advisor, All, apple, author, Banking, before, Blog, BLS, brooklyn, build, Bureau of Labor Statistics, business, Career, categories, cost, Credit, data, Debt, Economy, entry, experts, facebook, Fall, Featured, Finance, finances, Financial Advisor, financial advisors, Financial Goals, financial hardship, Financial Plan, Financial Planning, Financial Wize, FinancialWize, food, Free, General, Georgia, get started, gig, goals, good, Google, guide, historical, id, index, interview, job, jobs, jobs report, labor market, Learn, low, Main, Make, market, measure, Media, meta, money, More, News, or, Other, Paying Off Debt, Personal, personal finance, place, plan, Planning, points, policies, productive, property, quality, rate, ready, reddit, retirement, right, Saving, Saving for Retirement, skill, social, statistics, Style, survey, taxes, time, tips, title, tools, Twitter, Unemployment, unemployment rate, wages, work, workers, working

How to Compare Two Job Offers

February 10, 2023 by Brett Tams

Weighing two separate job offers can seem like an embarrassment of riches. In today’s job-starved economy, the prospect of having your choice between two positions is a rare and enviable position. But there’s also an element of anxiety with choosing between two offers. One could be the job of your dreams, and the other could

The post How to Compare Two Job Offers appeared first on MintLife Blog.

Posted in: Careers, College, Early Career, Financial Planning, Financing A Home, Investing, Money Management, Personal Finance, Student Loans, Unemployment Tagged: 2016, 2022, 401k, All, ask, average, before, Benefits, big, Blog, bonus, bonuses, business, calculator, car, Career, Careers, College, color, commute, company, Compensation, cost, Credit, data, Debt, debt free, deductibles, driving, Early Career, earning, Economy, energy, Featured, Finance, financial management, Financial Planning, Financial Wize, FinancialWize, flu, freelance, Freelance writer, front, front door, Giving, good, great, Happiness, health, Health Insurance, healthcare, Holidays, home, How To, how to negotiate, industry, Insurance, Investing, job, Layoffs, layout, Learn, Loans, Make, meta, Mint, mint.com, mobile, money, Money Management, More, more money, new, new job, offer, offers, Other, pension, Personal, personal finance, plan, projects, questions, reach, Research, retirement, retirement plan, room, salaries, Salary, save, second, sleep, stock, student, Student Loans, Style, time, tips, title, tuition, Unemployment, vacation, value, weighing, white, will, work, work from home, working

What’s Next?

February 4, 2023 by Brett Tams

In times of turmoil, it helps to understand what’s next. Hold on to long-term optimism, but face the present reality one day at a time.

Posted in: Money Basics, Personal Finance, Unemployment Tagged: 2, action, advice, All, ask, balance, before, Benefits, bills, Blog, bridge, Budget, Budgeting, build, Built, business, closing, collecting, coronavirus, cost, couple, covid, COVID-19, Credit, credit card, credit scores, Crisis, data, Deals, decision, doors, Economics, Economy, Emergency, Emergency Fund, employer, Employment, Essentials, expenses, experience, Fall, Finance, finances, Financial Wize, FinancialWize, flu, food, fund, future, futures, gold, good, government, groceries, Grow, health, Health Insurance, healthcare, healthy, heat, hindsight, historical, history, hold, home, Housing, housing payments, Income, index, index fund, Insurance, insurance plans, interest, Investing, investments, investors, jobs, landlords, learned, lenders, lessons, Life, list, loan, Local, low, LOWER, Make, making, man, market, money, Money Basics, More, Mortgage, mortgage lenders, needs, new, offer, one day, Operations, Opinion, Other, pandemic, paycheck, payments, Personal, personal finance, personal finances, politics, portfolio, premium, present, pretty, priorities, prisoner dilemma, questions, Quotes, Rent, right, risk, seasonal, second, security, simulation, smart, Social Distancing, Spending, stable, stockdale, student, student loan, Student Loan Repayment, studying, time, under, Unemployment, utilities, washington, will, work

January’s strong jobs report could spell trouble for the housing market

February 4, 2023 by Brett Tams

The labor market started 2023 with a bang, which could spell trouble for the housing market as the Fed tries to control inflation this year.

Posted in: Paying Off Debts, Real Estate, Unemployment Tagged: 2, 2022, 2023, average, Banking, big, Bright MLS, brokerages, brokers, building, Bureau of Labor Statistics, business, buyers, construction, Consumers, contractors, cost, Credit, data, earnings, Economics, Economy, Employment, estate, Family, fed, Federal Reserve, Financial Wize, FinancialWize, First American, funds, good, growth, health, Health care, homebuilding, Hospitality, hourly, Housing, Housing market, index, industry, Inflation, Insurance, interest, interest rate, interest rates, job, job market, jobs, jobs report, labor market, leasing, loan, Make, market, markets, Mike Fratantoni, mls, More, Mortgage, Mortgage Bankers Association, Mortgage Rates, News, Odeta Kushi, pandemic, Politics & Money, predictions, pressure, rate, Rates, Real Estate, Recession, rental, Residential, second, sellers, single, single-family, specialty, Spending, Spring, spring housing market, statistics, target, Technology, the fed, trend, under, Unemployment, unemployment rate, wages, will

Money Crashers – Your Guide to Credit Cards & Banking

January 20, 2023 by Brett Tams

We work hard to find the best information so you don’t have to.

There’s a lot of financial information out there, and sifting through it can be overwhelming. Our experts conduct extensive research and analysis to provide you with the facts, figures, and tips you need to get down to the real work of managing your money.

Posted in: Unemployment Tagged: Banking, Credit, credit cards, experts, Financial Wize, FinancialWize, guide, Managing Your Money, money, Research, tips, work

How Is Solvency Ratio Used for Company Credit?

January 9, 2023 by Brett Tams

If you’re a business owner looking for a loan, your lender will be looking for your solvency ratio. Of course, if you have a startup and are new to running a business, you may not know what a solvency ratio … Continue reading →

The post How Is Solvency Ratio Used for Company Credit? appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.

Posted in: Small Business, Unemployment Tagged: 2, advisor, All, ask, assets, author, balance, before, bills, Blog, Borrow, build, build credit, building, business, Business Credit, business loan, company, cost, Credit, Credit risk, Debt, debt to income ratio, Debts, discover, earnings, equity, evergreen_simplefeed_delay, existing, expenses, Financial Advisor, Financial Plan, Financial Wize, FinancialWize, good, good credit, health, healthy, How To, how to build business credit, interest, interview, inventory, Learn, lenders, line of credit, loan, Loans, Main, market, math, money, More, new, Other, payments, questions, rate, Rates, ready, risk, running, Sell, Small Business, solvency ratio, stocks, Style, taxes, title, versus, will, work

How to Cope with Debt While You are Unemployed

January 9, 2023 by Brett Tams

Loss of employment can be a very emotionally difficult time. Fears about finding a new job and anxieties over how to make ends meet have the potential to rob you of sleep and hurt your self-esteem. However, you’re not completely without options. Here are a few simple things you can do, to help cope with

The post How to Cope with Debt While You are Unemployed appeared first on MintLife Blog.

Posted in: Cleaning And Maintenance, Debt, Unemployment Tagged: All, ask, assets, before, Benefits, Blog, car, Credit, credit cards, Debt, Debts, Employment, expenses, finances, Financial Wize, FinancialWize, food, funds, Giving, guide, health, How To, investments, job, Loans, Make, making, Mint, money, More, more money, new, new job, payments, priorities, security, sleep, stock, taxes, television, tips, Unemployment, will, work

How to Use a ROBS 401(k) to Finance a Business

January 8, 2023 by Brett Tams

It takes money to start and keep a business running, and access to capital is one of the major roadblocks to business ownership for many would-be entrepreneurs. However, there are several ways individuals can use their retirement funds to finance … Continue reading →

The post How to Use a ROBS 401(k) to Finance a Business appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.

Posted in: Retirement, Small Business, Unemployment Tagged: 2, 401(k) plan, 401k, acquisition, advisor, All, assets, author, balance, bankruptcy, before, Benefits, Blog, Books, business, Buy, c corporation, calculator, company, cons, cost, Credit, credit history, Debt, Entrepreneurs, entrepreneurship, exercise, existing, expense, Fees, Finance, Financial Advisor, Financial Wize, FinancialWize, financing, freelance, goal, guide, history, How To, Income, Income Taxes, interest, Investing, investors, IRA, irs, Legal, Life, LLC, loan, Loans, Main, Make, money, More, more money, Music, new, new york, offers, organizing, Other, payments, Personal, personal finance, pros, Pros and Cons, Purchase, Rates, ready, Refinance, retirement, retirement accounts, retirement funds, retirement plan, retirement plans, retirement savings, risk, robs, rollover, running, salaries, Salary, savings, Sell, Small Business, sole proprietorship, startup loan, startups, stock, Style, taxes, texas, The Wall Street Journal, title, Transaction, wall, wants, washington, wealth, will, work, working

When Unemployment Benefits Run Out

January 8, 2023 by Brett Tams

The average unemployed worker has been out of work for 35.2 weeks, and the number has been climbing steadily for over a year. Despite this crisis, last week, Congress went home without passing another emergency extension of unemployment benefits. This affects 1.2 million workers: they will no longer collect unemployment checks, but there’s no evidence that losing their benefits will spur them to get a job any faster in a depressed economy.

The post When Unemployment Benefits Run Out appeared first on MintLife Blog.

Posted in: Cleaning And Maintenance, Unemployment Tagged: 2, All, apartment, art, ask, author, Benefits, bills, Blog, building, city, clear, College, Community College, couple, Crisis, Debt, Early retirement, Economy, Emergency, eviction, Family, Finance, finances, Financial Wize, FinancialWize, fire, good, government, health, health plan, home, house, Housing, How To, Insurance, job, job market, Job Search, jobs, Local, low-income, Make, market, Medicaid, mess, Mint, money, More, new, offer, office, Other, projects, Psychology, rate, Rent, retirement, savings, School, search, smart, Spring, statistics, story, trends, under, Unemployment, Unemployment numbers, wants, will, work, workers
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