Many Americans expect mortgage rates to decline over the coming months but they remain pessimistic about how affordable buying a home will be in 2024, a survey by Fannie Mae shows.
The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index jumped by 3.5 points last month to nearly 71, its highest level since March 2022. This increased confidence was built on people feeling more secure in their jobs and those who believe the cost of a home is likely to decline this year, the index showed.
But the survey also revealed a fault line that is currently shaping the housing market— despite rates falling from their two-decade highs in the fall of last year, affordability still remains a concern for potential buyers. The Fannie Mae survey showed that a mere 17 percent of respondents said that now is a good time to purchase a property.
An all-time survey-high 36 percent of respondents indicated that they expect mortgage rates to go down in the next 12 months, while 28 percent expected them to go up, and 35 percent expected rates to remain the same.
“For the first time in our National Housing Survey’s history, a greater share of consumers believe mortgage rates will decrease over the next year, rather than increase,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, said in a note. “Consumers also expressed greater confidence in their job situations this month, another sign that housing sentiment may continue to improve in 2024.”
But those consumers were also worried about whether they will be able to buy even as mortgage rates drop.
“While home affordability may improve if actual mortgage rates continue moving downward, other parts of the affordability equation have yet to ease or improve for consumers,” Duncan said. “A large majority still think home prices will either increase or stay the same; the ‘good time to buy’ component continues to hover near its historical low.”
Mortgage rates hit 8 percent in October 2023, making securing a home loan the most expensive it has been since the turn of the century. Since then, rates have declined to the mid-6 percent range, a development that has sparked some activity among buyers.
This jump in interest has yet to translate into a selling spree, partly due to elevated prices.
On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) pointed out that the median single-family used home price jumped 3.5 percent from a year ago to $391,700. Meanwhile, the payments that American households would pay on their mortgages if they put down 20 percent of a loan was 10 percent higher than a year ago at about $2,200.
“Many homebuyers have been shocked at high housing costs, with a typical monthly mortgage payment rising from $1,000 three years ago to more than $2,000 last year,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement shared with Newsweek.
The rise in prices is partly due to a lack of enough supply of homes available for sale. This was a particular challenge in the used homes market, where sellers who own mortgages in the 2 to 3 percent range are reluctant to give them up with current costs of home loans high.
“While a lower mortgage rate path supports our forecast for a gradual increase in housing demand and sales activity in 2024, until we see a meaningful increase in housing supply, we expect affordability will remain a significant barrier to home ownership for many households,” Duncan said.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com