“The second-quarter profit report offers a mixed bag of plusses and minuses that added up to an overall picture of not much change for sellers,” ATTOM chief Rob Barber said in the report. “Prices jumped back upward, which was great news for owners. So did raw profits. Profit margins also remained historically elevated.” However, Barber … [Read more…]
I got active on Twitter over the past year and change and to my surprise (not sure why it’s surprising really), encountered lots of housing bears on the platform.
Many were/still are convinced that the next housing crash is right around the corner.
The reasons vary, whether it’s an Airbnbust, a high share of investor purchases, high mortgage rates, a lack of affordability, low home sales volume, rising inventory, etc. etc.
And the reasons seem to change as each year goes on, all without a housing crash…
So, now that we’re halfway through 2024, the obvious next question is will the housing market crash in 2025? Next year’s got to be the year, right?
But First, What Is a Housing Crash?
The phrase “housing crash” is a subjective one, with no real clear definition agreed to by all.
For some, it’s 2008 all over again. Cascading home price declines nationwide, millions of mortgage defaults, short sales, foreclosures, and so on.
For others, it might just be a sizable decline in home prices. But how much? And where?
Are we talking about national home prices or regional prices? A certain metro, state, or the nation at large?
Personally, I don’t think it’s a crash simply because home prices go down. Though it is a pretty uncommon occurrence to see nominal (non-inflation adjusted) prices fall.
Over the past few years, we’ve already experienced so-called home price corrections, where prices fell by 10%.
In 2022, we were apparently in a housing correction, defined as a drop in price of 10% or more, but not more than 20%.
Ostensibly, this means a drop of 20%+ is something much worse, perhaps a true housing crash.
But you have to look at the associated damage. If home prices fall 20% and there aren’t many distressed sales, is it still a crash?
Some might argue that there’s simply no other outcome if prices fall that much. And maybe they’d be right. The point is a crash needs to have major consequences.
If Homeowner Joe sells his home for $500,000 instead of $600,000, it’s not necessarily a disaster if he bought it for $300,000 a few years earlier.
He’s not happy about it, obviously, but it’s not a problem if he can still sell via traditional channels and even bank a tidy profit.
Of course, this means others who had to sell wouldn’t be so lucky, since their purchase price would likely be higher.
Still, this hinges on a major decline in prices, which historically is uncommon outside of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
Stop Comparing Now to 2008
One thing I see a lot is housing bears comparing today to 2008. It seems to be the go-to move in the doomer playbook.
I get it, it’s the most recent example and thus feels the most relevant. But if you weren’t there, and didn’t live it, you simply can’t understand it.
And if you weren’t, it’s hard to distinguish that time from now. But if you were, it’s clear as day.
There are myriad differences, even though they’re quick to mock those who say “this time is different.”
I could go on all day about it, but it’s best to focus on some main points.
At the moment, housing affordability is poor thanks to a combination of high home prices and equally high mortgage rates, as seen in the chart above from ICE.
Despite a big rise in prices over the past decade, the high mortgage rates have done little to slow down the party.
Yes, the rate of home price appreciation has slowed, but given the fact that mortgage rates rose from sub-3% to 8% in less than two years, you’d expect a lot worse.
It’s just that there’s really no correlation between home prices and mortgage rates. They can go up together, down together, or move in opposite directions.
Now, proponents of a housing crash often point to buying conditions right now. It’s a horrible time to buy a house from a payment-to-income perspective. I don’t necessarily disagree (it’s very expensive).
But that completely ignores the existing homeowner pool. And by doing so, it’s a totally different thesis.
You can say it’s a bad time to buy but that the average homeowner is in great shape. These statements can coexist, even though everyone wants you to take one side or the other.
Look at the Entire Homeowner Universe
To put this perspective, consider the many millions of existing homeowners coupled with prospective home buyers.
Your average homeowner today has a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage set somewhere between 2-4%.
In addition, most purchased their properties prior to 2022, when home prices were a lot lower.
So your typical homeowner has a rock-bottom interest rate and a relatively small loan amount, collectively a very attractive monthly payment.
To make matters even better for the foundation of the housing market, which is existing homeowners, most have very low loan-to-value ratios (LTVs).
They’ve also got boring old 30-year fixed-rate loans, not option ARMs or some other crazy loan program that wasn’t sustainable, as we found out quickly in 2008.
These homeowners also haven’t tapped their equity nearly as much as homeowners did in the early 2000s, despite home equity being at record high levels (see above).
This is partially because banks and mortgage lenders are a lot stricter today. And partially because of mortgage rate lock-in. They don’t want to give up their low mortgage rate.
In other words, the low mortgage rate not only makes their payment cheap, it also deters taking on more debt! And more of each payment pays down principal. So these loans (and their borrowers) become less and less risky.
Some have turned to home equity loans and HELOCs, but again, these loans are much more restrictive, typically maxing out at 80% combined loan-to-value (CLTV).
In 2006, your typical homeowner did a cash-out refinance to 100% CLTV (no equity left!) while new home buyers were coming in with zero down payment as home prices hit record highs.
Take a moment to think about that. If that’s not bad enough, consider the mortgage underwriting at that time. Stated income, no doc, you name it.
So you had virtually all homeowners fully levered along with a complete lack of sound underwriting.
Slumping Home Sales in the Face of Poor Affordability Is Actually Healthy
That brings us to home sales, which have slumped since the high mortgage rates took hold. This is normal because reduced affordability leads to fewer transactions.
The worry is when this happens supply could outpace demand, resulting in home price declines.
Instead, we’ve seen low demand meet low supply in most metros, resulting in rising home prices, albeit at a slower clip.
While housing bears might argue that falling volume signals a crash, it’s really just evidence that it’s hard to afford a home today.
And the same shenanigans seen in the early 2000s to stretch into a home you can’t afford don’t fly anymore. You actually need to be properly qualified for a mortgage in 2024!
If lenders had the same risk tolerance they had back in 2006, the home sales would keep flowing in spite of 7-8% mortgage rates. And prices would move ever higher.
That spike in home sales in the early 2000s, seen in the chart above from Trading Economics, shouldn’t have happened. Fortunately, it’s not happening now.
At the same time, existing homeowners would be pulling cash out in droves, adding even more risk to an already risky housing market.
Instead, sales have slowed and prices have moderated in many markets. Meanwhile, existing owners are sitting tight and paying down their boring 30-year fixed mortgages.
And with any luck, we’ll see more balance between buyers and sellers in the housing market in 2025 and beyond.
More for-sale inventory at prices people can afford, without a crash due to toxic financing like what we saw in the prior cycle.
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 18 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on Twitter for hot takes.
Do you want to learn how to start a print-on-demand business? Print-on-demand businesses allow you to create and sell custom products like t-shirts, mugs, and phone cases without needing to store any inventory. Today, I have a great interview to share with you all about this business idea. It’s with Jessica Roop, who has had…
Do you want to learn how to start a print-on-demand business?
Print-on-demand businesses allow you to create and sell custom products like t-shirts, mugs, and phone cases without needing to store any inventory.
Today, I have a great interview to share with you all about this business idea.
It’s with Jessica Roop, who has had a print-on-demand side hustle for a couple of years. She’s been designing and selling her own products, and she recently launched a course on the subject I Love Print on Demand.
She profits around $500 and $1,500 per month with her print-on-demand side hustle. She has made over 6,000 print-on-demand product sales too!
In this interview, I ask Jessica questions about how to start a print-on-demand business from home.
So, if you are interested in starting a flexible and in-demand side hustle, I ask her questions you may be wondering about, like:
What is print-on-demand? How does print-on-demand work?
What are print-on-demand items a person can sell?
How much can a new person make selling print-on-demand?
How much does it cost to start and run a print-on-demand business?
Can someone with no tech skills start a print-on-demand business?
Today’s interview will help you get started on your path to becoming a successful print-on-demand entrepreneur.
I recommend signing up for the freebie 17 Hot-Selling Print-on-Demand Products That Can Pay for Your Next Vacation and More! to learn more.
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This freebie will teach you about print-on-demand as well as give you a list of 17 hot-selling products you can sell via print on demand.
How To Start a Print-On-Demand Business
Below is the interview all about how to start a print-on-demand business.
1. Please give us a little background on yourself and how you got started with a print-on-demand business. How much do you earn monthly from print-on-demand?
Hi! I’m Jessica. I’ve worked full-time online since 2017, doing everything from food blogging to offering virtual assistant services.
In 2020, like many of us, I found myself with some extra time on my hands because of COVID. In my free time, I became a little obsessed with how well e-commerce was doing, so I decided it would be a good side hustle to pursue. In 2021, I started planning my e-commerce business with an early 2022 launch. I was so excited!
I wish I could say that this was the beginning of my print-on-demand journey, but unfortunately, I dove into e-commerce the hard way: I started an online gift company that carried physical inventory.
Seeing as I live in a 692-square-foot apartment, this did not turn out to be a great idea. Plus, I completely underestimated how long it would take to pull products, package them, print shipping labels, and take boxes to the post office. It was exhausting, and my fun little e-commerce “side hustle” became a nightmare.
One day, print-on-demand randomly popped into my head, probably out of complete desperation!
A few years prior, I had created a few print-on-demand products after hearing about the idea somewhere. I never took selling the products I designed seriously, but the idea suddenly sounded intriguing. It would solve all of my problems because I wouldn’t have to carry any inventory and wouldn’t have to pack, package, or ship anything.
I launched my first print-on-demand product on Etsy in May 2022 and quickly had a best-selling product on my hands. I was hooked and haven’t looked back since!
My profit averages between $500 and $1,500 per month. I’m pretty busy with my “day job” income streams, so print-on-demand has always been a side hustle for me. It’s a super fun creative outlet and a great way to generate extra cash every month.
2. What is print-on-demand? How does print-on-demand work?
At its core, print-on-demand means that products are produced “on demand,” meaning they aren’t produced until an order comes through. For example, a design isn’t printed on a blank mug until a customer orders it.
Print-on-demand has evolved into a term for a business model where regular people can team up with a print-on-demand production partner and sell a wide variety of products without ever holding physical inventory or doing any of the fulfillment.
Let’s say you sell on Etsy like I do. Here’s how the process would look for you:
You create a digital design file (much easier than it sounds; some of my best sellers are text-only designs!) and upload it to your production partner’s site; in this example, let’s say you’ve designed a t-shirt
You list your t-shirt for sale on Etsy
A buyer finds your t-shirt, loves it, and purchases it
The order is sent to your production partner, and you click a button to confirm the order
Your production partner prints your digital design file on a t-shirt in the customer’s preferred size, packages it, prints a shipping label, and sends it off to your customer
Your production partner uploads the tracking information to Etsy and marks the order as complete
That’s it! Etsy pays you (minus transaction fees), and you pay your production partner. You pocket the difference, typically about 30% of the price you listed it for on Etsy. Your customer pays 100% of the shipping costs.
As you can see, at no point during this process do you hold a physical item in your hands. Your production partner takes care of all of it for you.
Here’s a print-on-demand product example.
3. What are print-on-demand items a person can sell?
Pretty much anything! Although I don’t have any exact figures, I’d say there are thousands of different products available for print-on-demand.
Every production partner offers something different, and the vast majority of production partners are adding new products all the time. And within each product category, there are often many different variations. For example, there isn’t just one type of mug out there – there are different sizes, different shapes, different colors, different materials.
Here are just a few of the products available for print-on-demand:
Mugs
Tumblers
T-shirts
Sweatshirts
Tote bags
Makeup bags
Wall art
Blankets
Desk mats
Cell phone cases
Ornaments
Bumper stickers
Jigsaw puzzles
Pet bowls
Can coolers
If you can dream it, it’s probably available!
4. How much can a new person make selling print-on-demand?
As long as you dedicate yourself to the process, making ~$500/month in profit on Etsy within the first 3-6 months is possible.
I started making that amount only about a month in, but I was lucky to have a best-selling product very quickly. That wasn’t my intention (I was just excited to get a single sale!), but I just happened to release a product that really spoke to people.
After that initial start-up period, for a part-time effort on Etsy, $500 to $1,500 a month in profit is totally doable. For a full-time effort on Etsy, $40,000 to $70,000 a year in profit is achievable.
You probably noticed that I’m saying on Etsy. If you create your own store (Shopify is a popular platform for self-hosting) and start doing a lot of paid ads and/or social media, you can scale a lot higher. There are people making multi-six figures a year in profit!
5. How much does it cost to start and run a print-on-demand business?
If you’re starting your shop on Etsy like I did, here is a general overview of costs:
Etsy (sales platform): $0.20 per new item listing, plus transaction fees of 6.5% after you make a sale
Creative Fabrica (to source fonts and images to use on designs): $3.99/month
Printify (production partner): No subscription fee, although they do offer a Premium plan for $24.99/month that allows you to purchase the products cheaper (highly recommended if you start making more than ten sales a month)
*Some people use Canva, but I’ve found that Adobe Illustrator makes it easier to produce quality designs. That said, Canva is making improvements all the time, so switching over will hopefully be possible eventually!
6. What do you like about print-on-demand? Is it worth it?
I like to joke that I’m a mix of highly motivated and highly lazy, and I’ve found that print-on-demand, especially on Etsy, is perfect for someone like me!
I love that I can publish as many product designs as I want with minimal effort and minimal risk. If something doesn’t work out, it’s no big deal… I can just move on to the next product. After seeing the other side of things with an inventory-based business, print-on-demand is so easy and super low-stress.
I’ve also come to really love the creative process of designing new products. I’ve spent my whole life feeling like I’m not creative, but print-on-demand has ignited a creative flame in me that I didn’t know existed. My designs are pretty basic, but sometimes I’ll spend hours designing products without even realizing time is passing.
It’s 110% worth it. It’s such a fun hobby – one that makes me money! Print-on-demand is a great way to fund vacations, home improvements, “me time” things (like time at the spa), and to pay off bills. Plus, if taking it full-time is your goal, that’s doable as well.
7. How does a person get customers for print-on-demand?
I highly recommend starting with Etsy because they have a built-in customer base. Etsy has about 92 million active buyers globally, so the potential is enormous! People don’t go to Etsy for any other reason than to purchase something, so you can be laser-focused on acquiring customers.
Like many online platforms, Etsy heavily relies on SEO for listings, so as long as you optimize your listings for their search engine, they can be found by potential buyers.
Etsy is the “easy button” for print-on-demand customers, but there are other ways to get customers, namely organic social media and paid social media (ads). For these methods, instead of hosting your products on Etsy, you would likely have your own online store through platforms like Shopify, Wix, Woocommerce, etc.
TikTok Shops are also becoming popular ways for print-on-demand sellers to reach customers. With a TikTok Shop, you sell directly on the app, and customers can purchase directly on the app, so you don’t need to have a separate store somewhere.
TikTok has strict rules for selling through its shops, including the maximum number of days that can pass before the product is shipped to the customer. This used to be a barrier to entry for print-on-demand since some products can take a little while to be fulfilled (because they need to be printed before they’re shipped), but now more production partners are making sure their products are shipped within TikTok’s timelines.
8. Can someone with no tech skills do this?
Yes! You don’t have to be super tech-savvy to start; you just have to be open to learning new skills. People of all tech levels can be successful with print-on-demand.
Even when it comes to graphic design, you don’t have to be skilled. As I mentioned before, some of my best-selling designs are text-only! Plus, with an inexpensive subscription to a place like Creative Fabrica, you can source millions of images and fonts to use in your designs.
9. Which is the best print-on-demand platform?
I use Printify and love it.
The two biggest players in print-on-demand are Printify and Printful, and I decided to go with Printify because I preferred their pricing structure and product selection. They have been fantastic and I have zero regrets!
10. Can you list the steps needed to get started selling print-on-demand?
If you choose to go the Etsy route, here’s what you need to do:
Set up a Printify account
Sign up for Creative Fabrica or a similar site to source fonts and images
Choose a product or two to start with on Printify (mugs are always a good choice) and download the design templates
Download Adobe Illustrator, open the design templates, and start designing
Upload your designs to Printify
Open an Etsy account and connect Printify to Etsy
Upload your products to Etsy
Start selling!
This is just a general overview, of course. There are other important pieces of the puzzle like researching niches, choosing from different design styles, and crafting your Etsy listings in the right way so they show up in Etsy results.
11. Can you tell me more about the course you have?
I Love Print on Demand is the course I wish I had when I started my print-on-demand journey.
With it, you will set up your print-on-demand business for success from day one so you can skip the stress and start making money faster!
I honestly had no clue what I was doing when I started, and it’s a total miracle I figured out the eight steps listed above, let alone any of the other moving pieces and parts. It was a slow learning process for me, and I made a lot of mistakes at the beginning, which was a pretty stressful experience.
When I created my course, I thought about all of the questions I had and all of the things that slowed me down and then created a course that addressed all of those aspects.
I also made sure to keep it simple by narrowing the focus to the top three products that sell best for me. Print-on-demand can be a little like the Cheesecake Factory menu—there are so many product options, and you can easily get overwhelmed! It’s okay to branch out to other products later, but I keep you laser-focused so you focus on what works right from the beginning.
If you’re interested, you can check out my I Love Print on Demand course here.
You can also sign up for my free ebook, 17 Hot-Selling Print-on-Demand Products That Can Pay for Your Next Vacation and More!, here.
Do you want to learn how to start a print-on-demand business? What would you sell?
Note from Making Sense of Cents: I hope you enjoyed this helpful article on how to start your own POD business. There are many marketplace and ecommerce platforms (your supplier who does your order fulfillment) that you can get started with, as you learned above. And, there are many unique designs that you can sell to stand apart from the crowd. I have bought many items (a wide range of products such as apparel, accessories, and home decor) from POD businesses over the years, and I expect this to continue for myself and many others for the future. There are many ways to grow a print-on-demand business too (such as Facebook, Instagram, and even YouTube), so that can help you to make more money and maybe even increase your profit margins. I hope you see lots of success!
Mortgage rates continue to move lower this week even as higher borrowing costs have kept activity subdued across many areas of the housing market.
According to data at HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center, the average rate for 30-year conforming loans was at 7.01% on Tuesday, down 5 basis points from one week ago and 10 basis points lower than two weeks ago. The rate for 15-year conforming loans averaged 6.66% on Tuesday, compared to 6.79% a week ago.
HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami recently wrote that higher mortgage rates “have increased recession risk by targeting the one sector that always falls before every recession: residential construction workers. And higher rates are also impacting the future supply of homes, as housing permits have been in a downtrend for a while.“
Data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) showed that housing starts shrank 4.4% year over year in June. But this pullback was led by the multifamily sector, where starts dropped 23.4% compared to June 2023. Single-family starts rose 4.4% during the year. Permits fell by 3.1% year over year, including a 1.3% decrease in single-family permits.
Housing completions also grew by 15.5% during the year, although the bulk of this was tied to multifamily (40.2% growth). There were a record number of apartments delivered in many markets last year, but builders appear to be pulling back to avoid a glut of supply.
Lower mortgage rates are having a positive impact on application levels, with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reporting last week that applications were up 3.9% on a yearly basis during the week of July 12. Most of this growth was tied to refinance applications, which were up 37% year over year.
Fannie Mae economists project two rate cuts by the end of 2024. In a report released Tuesday, the government-sponsored enterprise anticipated the Federal Reserve would cut benchmark rates in September and December, resulting in the average 30-year rate declining to 6.8% in 2024 and to 6.4% in 2025.
Fannie also upwardly revised its forecast for purchase mortgage origination volume to $1.22 trillion due to home price appreciation that is expected to finish 2024 higher than previously anticipated. Fannie reduced its forecast for refinance originations to $346 billion this year but expects $563 billion in refis next year. In total, Fannie is forecasting $2.11 trillion in origination volume in 2025, up from a projected $1.70 trillion this year.
Survey data released Tuesday by Bright MLS concluded that “affordability is increasingly becoming more of a challenge for potential homebuyers.“ The survey of 1,180 real estate agents across six Mid-Atlantic states and the District of Columbia found that 14% of sellers in June saw a contract fall through due to a buyer’s inability to secure financing, which was up from 11% in May.
The surveyed agents also noted that affordability was the No. 1 reason for a buyer pausing their home search efforts over the past six months, while high mortgage rates were the No. 2 reason. Each of these factors were cited by nearly 60% of respondents.
“With mortgage rates hovering around 7% and home prices continuing to rise, financing is a growing challenge for buyers, and this is beginning to impact a buyer’s ability to make it across the finish line,” Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant said in a statement.
Good news, however, came in the form of less competition. In June, 38% of buyers successfully completed a purchase through Bright MLS while submitting only a single offer. That was up from 31.2% one year ago.
The gap between home appraisals and sale prices is rising.
That’s according to a new report from Corporate Settlement Solutions (CSS), which analyzed 10 states on the East Coast and Midwest for the share of properties that were appraised for more than the sale price, in addition to the average value over appraisal.
CSS’s analysis concluded that during the first half of 2024, 51% of sales in these states had appraised values that were higher than the sale price. That’s the largest share since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.
In 2020, 42% of properties were appraised for more than the sale price. This share was 42% in 2021, 46% in 2022 and 50% in 2023. The average percentage value of an over-appraised property in 2024 so far is 8.9%.
Properties were considered accurately appraised if these values fell within $2,500 of the sale price. Across the 10 states studied, slightly more than 40% of transactions met this definition.
Importantly for buyers and sellers who are striking deals, the percentage of properties sold this year for more than the appraised value is just 8.4%. The average percentage value of under-appraisal is 7.3%. These deals are relatively rare and can be jeopardized if terms have to be renegotiated due to an appraisal that comes in lower than the agreed-upon sale price.
“The growing gap between home appraisals and actual sale prices underscores the challenges of providing accurate valuations in a rapidly appreciating market with limited inventory,” CSS CEO Ashley Jelinek said in a statement.
“The big question is how long will this continue given that many housing economists are suggesting that home appreciation is normalizing and, in some markets, even decreasing. It is inflection points like the one we may be approaching that emphasize the importance of accurate, market-centric valuations.”
The states that CSS analyzed are Florida, Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia.
New York had the lowest percentage of over-appraised properties at 33.6%, and the percentage value of over-appraisals was a miniscule 4.6%. This suggests that New York has the most accurate appraisals of the 10 states analyzed. But New York also has the highest share of properties with an appraisal value below the sale price (14%).
Kentucky had the highest percentage of over-appraised properties at a whopping 72.7%, but the percentage value of over-appraisal was a modest 9.7%, just above the average for the 10 states analyzed. The average under-appraised value in Kentucky was 4.9%
North Carolina had the highest percentage value of over-appraisal at a somewhat shocking 33.3%, and 58.7% of properties in the state were over-appraised. Virginia‘s share of over-appraised properties over was 68.6%, while the average percentage value of over-appraisal there was 10.7%. Virginia’s share of properties sold for more than appraised value was the lowest of the 10 states at 2.9%.
As financial targets pave the way for interest rates to (finally) fall, the real estate industry is cautiously optimistic about a late-year boost.
At Inman Connect Las Vegas, July 30-Aug. 1, 2024, the noise and misinformation will be banished, all your big questions will be answered, and new business opportunities will be revealed. Join us.
Each week on The Download, Inman’s Christy Murdock takes a deeper look at the top-read stories of the week to give you what you’ll need to meet Monday head-on. This week: As financial targets pave the way for interest rates to (finally) fall, the real estate industry is cautiously optimistic about a late-year boost.
It’s rare for sometimes-dry economic forecasters to get what you might call “giddy,” but this week’s economic news seems to have done the trick. Inflation numbers began to reflect already-falling rent rates, creating the circumstances that might (finally) lead to a drop in interest rates — and a commensurate boost to the real estate market.
“It’s finally happening,” wrote Jay Parsons, a real estate economist who has noted for over a year that falling rents showed national inflation would plummet.
EXTRA: ‘It’s finally happening’: Cooler inflation opens the door to rate cut
In his testimony to lawmakers, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded a cautiously optimistic tone regarding the “considerable progress” the economy has made toward the Fed’s 2 percent inflation goal. “Reflecting these developments, the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are coming into better balance,” Powell said.
Rates are once again trending down after spiking following the June 27 presidential debate, as bond market investors who fund most mortgages are increasingly convinced the Fed will cut rates in September.
After flirting with 7 percent, rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages began to retreat, pulling back to an average of 6.96 percent on July 3, according to rate lock data tracked by Optimal Blue. Subsequently, rates on 30-year fixed-rate conforming loans have come down another 20 basis points, to 6.76 percent, as of Thursday July 11.
The CME FedWatch Tool on July 5 put the odds of a September rate cut at 78 percent, up from 74 percent on Wednesday and 64 percent on June 28. By Friday, July 12, futures markets put the odds of a September rate cut at 94 percent, and investors are pricing in a 52 percent chance that the Fed will cut rates by more than 50 basis points this year.
EXTRA: FHA, VA requests drive pickup in purchase mortgage demand
If lower rates bring on-the-fence buyers and sellers into the market, you’ll need to be up to speed on post-settlement rules and best practices. Fortunately, you’ve got expert Inman contributors to draw on for the real-world implementation and transaction advice you need now.
This week, we’ve got advice from a broker on outsourcing some aspects of due diligence to the experts, a coach on drilling down and finding a niche and, as Luxury Month rolls on, a tight-turnaround case study from an NYC agent.
5 easy ways to stay in your lane during a transaction
Stop trying to be all things to your clients, broker Joseph Santini writes. Focus on the things that fall within your purview and direct traffic as needed on your transactions.
Here’s why specialization matters for buyer’s agents
Developing areas of specialization enhances service, efficiency, and effectiveness and results in greater professional success for both teams and individual agents, coach Verl Workman writes.
How I secured a Soho penthouse for clients after a 4-day search
In this luxury case study, learn how The Agency’s Daniel Blatman overcame multiple offers and a short timeline to help his clients meet their goals.
Journeying to a new place lets you try on what living in another culture feels and looks like, whether you’re exploring the adobe house-filled streets of Santa Fe or the lantern-lit alleys of an ancient Moroccan city. Many travelers, dazzled by the rug sellers of Istanbul or the pottery workshops of Oaxaca, return with worldly housewares or art to decorate their homes.
“A textile, a clay bowl or an object you pick up at a flea market connects you to a time that you’ve enjoyed, a memory of a place,” says Hilary Robertson, a Brooklyn prop stylist and author of “Nomad At Home: Designing the Home More Traveled.” “If you can’t move to Marrakech or Kyoto, you can at least recreate something of the feeling.”
But snapping up the best items for your particular home requires a bit of strategy and advance planning. Here’s how to shop smartly, how to get your treasures back in one piece, and what to do with them upon your return.
Do your homework
You usually won’t turn up Indigenous handicrafts or interesting local art at an airport store or the hotel gift shop. “So do research before you go, looking up artisan networks, finding out which days flea markets operate, and figuring out what you might even be able to buy in a given place,” says Rachna Sachasinh, owner of Tikkiwallah, an online shop selling fair-trade Thai and Laotian pillow covers, blankets and other textiles.
Seek tips on what to buy and where to shop from your hotel concierge (or short-term rental owner), and via the websites and social media accounts of official tourism boards. You can also flip through old-school guidebooks (Lonely Planet, Rick Steves), which tend to concentrate on local retailers, rather than the location of every West Elm in Mexico City. TikTok and Instagram also offer potential shopping info, but be wary of paid brand placements.
While cool art and vintage home decor are available at most destinations, “you’ll find more handmade items like textiles, rugs and baskets if you travel to places like Morocco, India and Mexico, which still have living crafts cultures,” says Sachasinh.
Consider hiring a shopping pro
To get straight to the treasure hunting, you could hire a tour guide who specializes in shopping for a few hours. Look for market- or retail-specific experiences in your destination on travel booking sites such as TripAdvisor and Tours by Locals; using the name of a specific place (“Istanbul Grand Bazaar” or “Oaxaca pottery workshops”) can further winnow your search.
You can also try a simple online search to turn up market-savvy private guides such as Buenos Aires Shop Hop (guided jaunts to leather workshops and vintage markets in Argentina) or Maryam Montague, the proprietor of Peacock Pavilions hotel in Marrakech, who takes travelers on daylong expeditions through the city’s souks looking for fuzzy tribal rugs, bright pottery and leather poufs.
Or go on a crafts- or shopping-focused trip. Tour companies such as Ace Camps and Thread Caravan host weeklong trips to meet artisans and make things alongside them in destinations such as Perú (try weaving in the Sacred Valley near Machu Picchu) or Japan (learn how to use shibori indigo dyes or make pottery).
Luxury trip-planning company Indagare offers frequent style-centric small group tours to Mallorca, Rajasthan and Paris with dinners in designers’ homes, market excursions and meetups with artists. Grant K. Gibson, an interior designer, leads small groups to destinations such as Jaipur, India, and Oaxaca, Mexico, where they visit showrooms, learn about block printing and woodworking techniques, and usually come back with suitcases full of merchandise.
“Design touches on so many passion points — art, history and culture, food and wine — that trips like these are a great linchpin for learning, exploration and meeting fellow design enthusiasts,” says Indagare founder and chief executive Melissa Bradley.
Know what to look for
To support local artisans, look for fair-trade crafts stores, which pay creators fairly for their products and tend to stock goods representative of a destination. Other top bets: flea markets focused on handmade or antique goods, museum shops, and government-sponsored artisan boutiques or networks. For instance, Artesanías de Colombia shops in Bogotá and Cartagena hawk rope hammocks and palm fiber baskets produced by Indigenous weavers.
“And visiting an artisan workshop might give the deepest connection to something handmade, since you get talk to the crafter or even make something beside them,” says Sachasinh, who recommends the weaving workshops and the blanket- and table runner-stuffed store at Ock Pop Tok in Luang Prabang, Laos. At the Seattle Glass Blowing Studio, artists create the delicate bowls and glasses the Pacific Northwest city is known for — and teach beginners how to make their own.
Think about how you’ll get it home
Serendipity and impulse inspire many souvenir purchases. But if you want a Turkish rug for your living room or a vintage Parisian painting to match your bathroom tile, be sure to travel with photos and measurements of the space you have in mind. “I always bring a measuring tape and swatches of any fabric I want to match, too,” says Montague.
Planning on carrying a lot of items home on the plane? Stash a collapsible duffel (Paravel makes a clever zip-down one) in your luggage, or, for larger purchases, pack an extra, empty hard-sided suitcase. “It’s usually cheaper to pay for an extra checked bag than to ship a lot of things home,” says Montague. Know that oil paintings can be taken off their stretchers and rolled up, and that you can purchase a throw pillow cover that takes up little luggage space and buy the bulky insert when you arrive home.
“I’m wary of checking a bag with breakables, though,” says Bradley, who has ferried glass and pottery back from Cambodia and South Africa in a hard-sided carry-on.
And whether you are two hours away by car or five time zones away by plane, retailers that sell bulky items can generally guide you toward a shipper, even though it’s often not cheap. “I had this great farmhouse dining table shipped from the Paris flea market, and I’ve had people on my trips to India send home inlaid dressers,” says Gibson.
Get creative
Many housewares bought on your travels can be repurposed, and even ordinary goods found in other countries can seem special or elevated compared to what you’d get at home. “I go to Mexican hardware stores, because even basic items like door hooks or storage bins can be so colorful and fun,” says Robertson.
A Navajo rug can serve as a tablecloth; a beaded Maasai collar morphs into a sculpture when displayed on a wire stand. Even the simplest souvenirs — a vintage postcard of Yellowstone National Park, a scrap of fabric — look terrific when nicely framed.
Grouping disparate travel finds on a gallery wall can make them seem cohesive. “I have the most random … stuff hung on the wall of the staircase at my house — a painting from India, a brass bowl I got in Turkey,” says San Francisco interior designer Chelsea Sachs. “It’s like a chronicle of my life, and these things remind me of special moments when I get back home.” Indagare’s Bradley arranges Iranian tiles, Burmese boxes and Peruvian ceramics amid the novels and art books on her shelves.
Fabrics, buttons and other easy-to-transport materials you snap up on the road can turn into home accents, even if you aren’t especially crafty. Bring home a couple pieces of washi — a Japanese mulberry paper so storied it’s recognized by UNESCO — to hot-glue onto a lampshade or inside a wooden tray. A basket or other object can be turned into a light fixture. “I carried a huge antique rattan bird cage home on a ferry from Provincetown once, and now it’s a chandelier,” says Robertson.
And almost any textile — a striped Peruvian blanket, a vintage quilt from a flea market — can be fashioned into a throw pillow or shower curtain by your drycleaner or used to reupholster a chair seat. “Sometimes stuff has to hang around for a while before you know what you’ll do with it,” says Sachs.
You might not want to amass a cabinet full of souvenir teacups, spoons or snow globes like your great grandparents did. But the concept of picking up one small object everywhere you travel still has some validity; it might save you from overbuying, and even kitschy trinkets can summon memories. Think about scoring a holiday tree ornament or small flower vase every time you go on a trip, or save a few coins from each foreign country you visit to pile into a bowl on your coffee table. “Pieces from different places become integral to your home and allow you to reconnect with a destination and its aesthetic,” says Bradley.
A no-down-payment mortgage loan could be a good solution — but only for certain types of buyers, experts say.
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Between rising home prices and today’s high mortgage rates, buying a home has gotten very expensive. “Today’s home affordability is the worst we’ve seen since the early ’80s,” says Neil Christiansen, branch manager and certified mortgage advisor at Churchill Mortgage.
Meanwhile, inflation and high interest rates have made it difficult for many prospective buyers to save up for a down payment. If you were putting down 20% on the average US home, you’d need nearly $88,000, according to Redfin data.
However, you don’t always need to put down 20% on a home purchase. You might not even need to pay any money upfront. While not as widespread as traditional mortgages, no-down-payment mortgages do exist and could be helpful for some prospective buyers. However, these types of mortgage loans may not make sense in every situation.
Ready to buy a home? Compare your top mortgage loan options now.
When does a no-down-payment mortgage make sense? Experts weigh in
Those who are eligible for a no-down-payment mortgage and can afford the monthly payments might benefit from not having to set aside so much money upfront.
“A no-down payment mortgage can be a great option for qualified borrowers who may not have the means to save for a down payment but have a stable income. This path could make sense when a homebuyer has limited liquidity but can comfortably afford the monthly payments and other homeownership costs, such as insurance, property taxes, and maintenance,” says Chris Birk, vice president of mortgage insight at Veterans United Home Loans.
A no-down-payment mortgage can also make sense if you want more money to invest aside from putting money into real estate.
“Although there are a few loan programs offering zero down payment, in today’s high interest rate and elevated-price environment, it can be a challenge for buyers to get approved,” says Christiansen.
But if you can qualify for one, Christiansen says, then you could potentially grow your net worth by investing the money that would have gone toward the down payment into stocks, bonds or other assets.
One option for a no-down-payment mortgage could be a Department of Veteran’s Affairs (VA) loan.
“For many veterans and service members, VA loans offer a secure path to homeownership with no down payment required. About three-quarters of VA buyers bought a home last year without making a down payment,” says Birk.
“Another route is the USDA loan, which is available in eligible rural and suburban areas and offers a no-down payment mortgage option,” he adds.
It’s also possible to find a private mortgage lender offering a no-down-payment mortgage, though that could involve structures like a government-backed, low-down-payment mortgage paired with another loan to cover the remaining down payment amount.
Regardless of the source, if you’re comfortable with the mortgage terms, having no down payment could help some buyers. For example, it can be a smart choice if you have a stable income, good credit and a low debt-to-income ratio, experts say.
That’s because, in today’s tight housing market, you may not have the opportunity to save for a down payment, as buying sooner rather than later can be advantageous. However, you’ll typically need a solid borrower profile and a good credit history to obtain a no-down-payment mortgage.
Explore the top mortgage loan rates available to you here.
When does a no-down-payment mortgage not make sense?
Despite the upside of no-down-payment mortgages, there are some possible disadvantages to weigh first.
“The no-down-payment talk seems to have run rampant on the internet. This is not a new product, and it’s not widely available,” says Kevin Leibowitz, founder, mortgage broker at Grayton Mortgage, Inc. And the terms of these loans can be a bit much, he adds.
For example, you might end up with higher monthly payments compared to a regular mortgage, aside from just the difference in the loan amount. That’s because no-down-payment mortgages often come with higher interest rates and require private mortgage insurance (PMI), both of which can lead to higher monthly payments.
And, having no equity in your home can be risky. If the property values decrease in your area, you could end up upside down on your home. Owing more than your property’s worth could cause issues like making it difficult for you to move or refinance your mortgage. So, you might not want to take on the risk.
“It may not be the best choice if the homebuyer’s financial situation is unstable, or if they are not prepared for the long-term financial commitment of owning a home. Would-be homebuyers who are struggling with high debt levels or inconsistent income may find that the added financial responsibility of a mortgage without an equity cushion is too much to handle,” says Birk.
“Additionally, in some competitive markets, sellers might prefer offers with a down payment, as they see them as more financially secure,” he adds.
Other low-down-payment mortgage options to consider
No-down-payment mortgages have their appeal, but there are other ways to buy a home without a big down payment.
“Both conventional and FHA loans offer low down payment loans, anywhere from 3% for first-time buyers with a conventional loan and 3.5% on FHA for first-time and existing buyers. To use conventional financing and be an existing buyer, a 5% down payment loan is available,” says Christiansen.
Some of these loans still have relatively narrow eligibility requirements, but they can still be more widespread than no-down-payment options.
“Lenders may offer conventional mortgage products with 3% down payments through programs like Fannie Mae’s HomeReady and Freddie Mac’s Home Possible, which are designed to help low- to moderate-income buyers,” says Birk.
You also might qualify for programs that help you afford your down payment in the first place. For example, down payment assistance programs can provide grants for your down payment. And, that can help new or lower-income buyers get into their first homes.
The bottom line
No-down-payment mortgages can be helpful for some buyers, such as those with plenty of income and solid credit but who lack the savings for a down payment. However, these mortgages can also increase costs and come with higher risk. As such, other options like low-down-payment mortgages or down payment assistance programs could be worth exploring.
Congratulations! You’re just a few steps away from getting the keys to your new home in Nevada. But before you can officially get the keys, one of the last steps is to pay closing costs.
Closing costs are the fees and expenses associated with finalizing a real estate transaction and transferring ownership of a property from the seller to the buyer. If you’re feeling unprepared or overwhelmed, don’t worry. To help you budget for closing costs, this Redfin article will cover how much closing costs are in Nevada, who pays for them, and which costs you can expect to pay as a buyer and as a seller.
How much are closing costs on average in Nevada?
In addition to the down payment, homebuyers will also need to pay closing costs before securing the keys to their new home. As a general rule of thumb, you can expect closing costs in Nevada to add up between 2%-5% of the purchase price. However, keep in mind that closing cost amounts vary depending on many factors – such as the purchase price of the home, the type of loan, and any adjustments negotiated with the seller.
For example, if you’re buying a home in Henderson, which has a median sale price of $495,000, closing costs could range anywhere from $9,900 to $24,750. Or, let’s say that you’re buying a home in Las Vegas, which has a median sale price of $440,000. Closing costs for a home here could range from $8,800 and $22,000.
Who pays closing costs in Nevada?
So, who pays for closing costs in Nevada? In most transactions, both the buyer and seller will pay closing costs. But, each party’s closing costs amount will vary depending on what they are required to pay. Keep in mind that it’s common for the buyer to pay closing costs out of pocket, while the seller’s closing costs are typically deducted from the home sale proceeds.
Buyer closing costs in Nevada
Closing costs in Nevada for buyers usually range from 2%-5%. In most cases, you’ll pay earnest money, typically 1% to 3% of the home price, upon reaching mutual acceptance in your home purchase. This deposit is subtracted from your closing costs, reducing the total amount due at closing. Let’s break down some of the common closing costs covered by the buyer:
Appraisal fee: Home appraisals, which typically range from $300 to $500, are usually paid for separately at the time of the service. However, if not, you’ll need to pay for this at closing.
Inspection fee: Although not required, a home inspection is highly recommended. Home inspections generally range from $300 to $500 in cost and are usually paid at the time of service. However, if not, it will need to be paid at closing.
Loan origination fee: Most lenders charge a fee for creating your loan. Be sure to check with your lender what this fee covers and if it can be waived or negotiated.
Loan processing fee: Lenders may also charge a loan processing fee, covering underwriting and related services. Similar to the origination fee, check with your lender to understand its purpose and possible waivers.
Loan discount points: If you buy discount points to lower your interest rate, you’ll pay a one-time fee at closing. These points can lower your rate by 0.25% to 0.5%, but consider your long-term homeownership plans before paying for a reduced rate.
Private mortgage insurance (PMI): Required for down payments under 20%, PMI might involve an upfront fee at closing, depending on the loan type. It’s usually part of your monthly payment, but some loans offer the option to pay it as a one-time fee.
Title insurance: Title insurance is a one-time fee paid as part of closing costs. Buyers typically cover both lender and owner title insurance policies.
Homeowners insurance: In Nevada, your annual homeowner’s insurance premium may be part of your closing costs.
Homeowners Association dues: If your property is part of a homeowners association, you’ll likely pay one month’s dues upfront at closing. These fees vary and contribute to maintenance and operational costs.
Property taxes: As part of closing costs in Nevada, you may be required to prepay a portion of your property taxes at closing.
Seller closing costs in Nevada
How much closing costs are in Nevada for sellers will vary between each transaction. Here are some of the common fees and costs covered by sellers:
Real estate agent commission fees: These fees can be a significant cost for sellers. Commission fees may vary and are subject to negotiation. Sellers should discuss their options with their agent.
Homeowners Association fees: If the property is part of an HOA, the seller may need to pay a variety of fees. These can include HOA transfer fees, outstanding dues, and possibly a fee for obtaining HOA documents required by the buyer. The exact fees will depend on the HOA’s rules and regulations.
Property taxes: Sellers are responsible for any property taxes that have accrued but not yet been paid up to the closing date. These unpaid property taxes are typically prorated for the months that you owned the property.
Title insurance: Owner’s title insurance is another common closing cost in Nevada paid for by the seller.
Transfer taxes: In Nevada, there is a state levied tax on the transfer of ownership of a property. Sellers can expect to pay a one-time transfer tax as part of closing costs. There may also be additional taxes levied by local governments, such as counties and cities.
Median home sale price data from the Redfin Data Center during July 2024.
A specialty? Luxury apartment complexes in Los Angeles neighborhoods such as Palms and Silver Lake filled with mostly market rate units, but with a handful of income-restricted affordable ones as well.
It can be a good business, but lately less so.
“We have pulled back,” said Kahan, the president of California Landmark Group. “The metrics don’t work.”
Across California and the nation, developers moved to start fewer homes in 2023, a decline some experts say could eventually send home prices and rents even higher as supply shortages worsen.
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Developers cite several reasons for delaying new projects. There’s high labor and material costs, as well as new local regulations that together make it harder to turn a profit.
Perhaps the biggest factor — and one hitting across the country — is the high cost of borrowing. Rising interest rates not only make it more expensive for Americans to buy a home, but they add additional costs for developers who must shell out more money to build and manage their projects.
As a result, fewer projects make financial sense to build and fewer homes are built.
“More than anything it is debt costs,” said Ryan Patap, an analyst for real estate research firm CoStar.
In all, preliminary data from the US. Census Bureau show building permits for new homes nationwide fell 12% in 2023 from the prior year and 7% in California. Drops were recorded in both single-family homes — most of which tend to be for sale — as well as multifamily homes — which are chiefly rentals.
Dan Dunmoyer, president of the California Building Industry Assn., said one major reason for the decline is that many for-sale home builders foresaw “a massive downturn” and stopped buying lots to develop when mortgage rates soared in 2022.
Then a funny thing happened. Demand for their product didn’t crater as much as expected, in large part because existing homeowners didn’t want to sell and rid themselves of ultra-low mortgage rates.
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“Builders kind of woke up and realized ‘Oh, it’s just us [selling homes],‘” Dunmoyer said. “But we don’t turn on a dime.”
As for-sale builders restart their engines to take advantage of a shortage of listings, there are signs of improvement. During the first two months of this year, builders in California pulled 35% more permits for single-family homes than during the same period a year earlier, according to census data.
Permits for multifamily continued to decline — dropping 33%.
The diverging paths are probably due to several factors, said Rick Palacios Jr., director of research for John Burns Research and Consulting.
On a whole, single-family home builders have access to a wider source of debt that isn’t as vulnerable to rising interest rates. In the single-family market, the supply shortage has also worsened and home prices are climbing.
Meanwhile, rents in many places — including Los Angeles — have dropped slightly as vacancies have risen, in part because apartment construction has been relatively robust in recent years.
“Single-family solid, multifamily weak is a pretty consistent theme across most of the country,” Palacios said. “You’re hard pressed to find a market where developers and investors are gung ho on apartments.”
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In the city of Los Angeles, developers must contend with another factor — Measure ULA.
The citywide property transfer tax took effect last year to fund affordable housing and has drawn the ire of the real estate industry.
Though it’s known as the “mansion tax,” except for rare exceptions it applies to all properties sold for more than $5 million, no matter if they are gas stations, strip malls, apartment buildings or actual mansions. Under the measure, a seller is charged 4% of the sales price for properties sold above $5 million and below $10 million.
At $10 million and above, the tax is 5.5%.
Apartment developers and real estate brokers said additional costs from ULA make it even harder to earn a reasonable profit in what can be a risky business.
That’s because when building apartments, developers often sell their finished product, which would probably trigger the ULA tax for any building over 15 units, according to Greg Harris, a real estate broker with Marcus and Millichap. Even developers who hold onto their properties typically need to take out a mortgage on the finished building — and Harris said lenders are willing to give less because they too would need to pay the tax if they foreclose and sell the property.
“ULA is like the last nail in the coffin,” said Robert Green, a Los Angeles developer. “It couldn’t have come at a worse time.”
Many apartment projects got their start under different economic circumstances and have opened in recent years or will soon. That supply should help keep rents down for a while, but not forever, said Richard Green, executive director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
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In two or three years, as fewer apartments are finished “we will see rent start to go up again,” he said.
That would be a hit for Californians struggling to find housing in an expensive state where thousands sleep on the streets.
Economic cycles, of course, ebb and flow and construction may rebound.
The Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates later this year, which may help more projects make sense financially, as could rising rents.
Land sellers could also drop their asking prices to adjust for rising developer costs, including ULA in Los Angeles.
Normally, real estate analyst Patap said he’d expect apartment construction to rebound as land costs adjust downward. But he noted developers say they are also cautious about building in L.A. because of a broader political shift in the city that’s more supportive of restrictions on landlords and more supportive of protections for tenants.
In the city of Los Angeles, multifamily permits dropped 24% in 2023 compared with 19% in Los Angeles County, census data show. (Data from the Construction Industry Research Board show even larger drops: 49% in the city and 39% in the county.)
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Laurie Lustig-Bower, a commercial real estate broker with CBRE, said some L.A. landowners have reduced their prices to sell, but “if they don’t have a gun to their head” they are waiting until developers can pay more.
In recent years, state lawmakers have taken action to make it easier to build housing, in part by eroding local control over land use decisions.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has also fast-tracked 100% affordable buildings under her Executive Directive 1, while the city recently exempted smaller projects from some storm water capture requirements.
Mott Smith, chairman of the Council of Infill Builders, said more must be done to increase the number of new homes in Los Angeles and cited the storm water decision as the kind of steps government should take.
“The city has no influence over interest rates … [but] what it controls is the process to get a project approved,” Smith said. “There are so many opportunities.”
For now, developers say it’s tough to find opportunities.
Kahan said his company runs the numbers on potential land purchases constantly and at least once a week finds it doesn’t make sense to buy and build.
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He expects to purchase some land in Southern California by year’s end, though mostly outside of the city of Los Angeles where Kahan said he’s increasingly looking because of costs from ULA, which unlike current interest rates aren’t expected to change.
So far, Kahan said he’s yet to find a deal that will work — within or outside city borders.