As we started 2024, the signals in the U.S. real estate market were for inventory growth, sales growth and home-price growth across the U.S. At the time, I observed that even if mortgage rates stayed flat, the momentum seemed to be in the cards for broad, slow growth in the market.
However, mortgage rates didn’t stay flat. They climbed starting Jan. 1 and as of today, March 18, mortgage rates are 30-40 basis points higher than Jan. 1. Rates are off their recent peak of a couple weeks ago, but the latest economic news is still very strong, and the markets are growing less sanguine about interest rates easing significantly soon. Last year, the most common view was that mortgage rates would fall in 2024. That hasn’t materialized yet and many people are less optimistic that it will.
We’ll learn more about the future of interest rates at the Federal Reserve meeting this week. Although I don’t have any capacity to predict interest rates, I do know what happens to the housing market if rates rise or fall from here.
Of my initial expectations this year — rising inventory, rising sales rates, rising prices — only rising inventory remains clear at this moment as we finish Q1 with rising interest rates. I talk frequently about how rising rates creates rising inventory. That’s true again this week in the data. My other two expectations, slowly rising sales volume, and slowly rising prices, are less compelling. Let’s look at the data.
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Housing inventory
Looking at last week’s numbers:
There are 507,000 single-family homes on the market in the U.S.
That’s 1.3% more than a week prior, 22% more than a year ago, and 105% more than two years ago.
This week in 2022 was the last of the 3% mortgages. Inventory and rates rose in lockstep starting then.
There are 250,000 more homes on the market now then when we exited the pandemic boom in March 2022.
At this moment in 2022, interest rates and inventory had started rising quickly together as the pandemic boom ended. Mortgage rates were still in the 3s in early March 2022. By April they were in the 4s and by May they were in the 5s.
As mortgage rates rise, so do the number of unsold homes: Demand slows, inventory grows. As the economy remains surprisingly strong, mortgage rates are staying higher for longer than people predicted and as long as rates stay high, inventory will keep growing.
While inventory is growing across the country, some markets are way more impacted and already have more homes on the market than in 2019 or 2020 just before the pandemic. Nearly all markets are showing inventory growth over last year now and this is expanding every week.
The takeaway? If mortgage rates continue to rise to 7.5% or all the way to 8% again, we will see a pretty dramatic increase in unsold inventory. But if rates finally fall, let’s say to 6.5% or lower, we’ll see consumers act very quickly and this inventory growth will reverse. Lower rates mean more buyer competition and less unsold inventory.
New listings
Last week, 59,000 new single-family listings came to market. New listings volume continues to run ahead of last year and we see more sellers than last year. In fact, last week, after including the 16,000 immediate sales, there were 24% more new listings than the same week a year ago.
Last year was probably a record low for mid-March as we had very few sellers. For the rest of 2024 we should expect to have more sellers than a year ago, which is a very good thing. It was not that long ago that we had 70,000 or 80,000 new listings each week in March. We’re at 59,000 right now so the seller volume is climbing, but it’s still a third fewer than in recent years. So nationally there isn’t any sign of supply and demand getting out of balance.
Home prices
Demand is slow as mortgage rates continue to stay in the 7s. Supply is gradually increasing and demand is generally soft. As a result, some of the leading indicators for future home sales prices are starting to weaken.
One obvious place to watch this pricing transition is in the percent of homes on the market with price reductions. This week, 30.9% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s up half a percent this week and is now more than a year ago.
It’s totally normal to have around a third of homes on the market take a price reduction from the original list price before they sell. I’m going to watch the slope of this curve as this chart will show exactly how quickly the market reacts to higher mortgage rates. This is a pivotal time for measuring buyer demand.
A longer-term signal is the asking prices of all the homes on the market. The median price of single-family homes in the U.S. right now is $435,000. That’s up a notch from a week earlier and just 1.2% higher than a year ago.
Again, in January I expected this price data to be accelerating a little more quickly than it has. Home prices peak each year in June before receding a bit in the second half of the year. The question now is: will we surpass that all-time high this year or will it get delayed until 2025?
The median price of the new listings inched down to $419,900 last week and the new listings cohort is priced 5% higher than a year ago. The new listings are an excellent leading indicator for future home sales prices. The sellers and listing agents use all their collective wisdom and in aggregate they know exactly where to price the new listing. What this data tells us right now is that across the U.S. we have just narrowly increasing home prices this year so far. The signals are slightly weaker now than the data at the start of the year led me to expect.
Pending sales
This week saw 66,000 new contracts for single-family homes started. That’s 15% more than the same week a year ago. Since mortgage rates have been on the rise this year, the sales have been just barely above last year, so this week was probably a bit of an anomaly, but it is welcome nonetheless.
When we look at the price of the homes in contract but not yet sold — these are the pendings — we see that home sales prices are coming in about 4% higher than a year ago. The median price of all the homes in contract right now is $389,000. Home prices ended 2023 at 5-6% gains over the previous year, so home-price appreciation is compressing as mortgage rates have risen.
If rates stay steady around 7%, I don’t expect much price correction lower. If mortgage rates jump from here, I expect that we’ll see a step down in home prices like we saw in October of 2022.
Average mortgage rates climbed moderately last Friday. Indeed, they rose on every business day last week. However, that followed a week of mainly falls. And those rates begin this morning close to where they were at the start of March.
First thing, it was looking as if mortgage rates today barely move. But that could change later in the day.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
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Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.12%
7.13%
+0.02
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.62%
6.65%
+0.03
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.15%
7.17%
+0.04
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.64%
6.66%
Unchanged
30-year fixed FHA
6.49%
7.17%
+0.01
30-year fixed VA
6.61%
6.72%
+0.02
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.28%
7.38%
Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
I doubt we’ll see mortgage rates enter a consistent downward trend much before the summer, and possibly later.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes held steady at 4.32%. (Neutral for mortgage rates. However, yields were rising this morning.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices increased to $81.35 from $80.62 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices inched down to $2,159 from $2,162 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — nudged up to 75 from 71 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to hold close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
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What’s driving mortgage rates today?
The Fed
The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting body (the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC) begins a two-day meeting tomorrow. And a flurry of events is scheduled for the following afternoon.
Almost nobody expects an announcement of a cut in general interest rates on Wednesday. But events that afternoon include:
2 p.m. Eastern — Rate announcement and report publications
2 p.m. Eastern — Summary of Economic Projects publication. This occurs only quarterly and includes a dot plot
These FOMC documents and the news conference may provide new insights into how the Fed’s thinking on future cuts to general interest rates is evolving. So, markets globally will be paying the closest attention to every word written and uttered.
And there is huge potential for Wednesday’s Fed events to move mortgage rates.
I covered this in last Saturday’s weekend edition. And I’ll brief you in more detail again on Wednesday morning so you’ll know what to look out for.
Other influences on mortgage rates this week
Most of the economic reports on this week’s calendar are unlikely to affect mortgage rates. It’s not impossible. But they cover areas of the economy that rarely interest the bond investors who largely determine those rates.
Today’s lone report is a good example. It’s the home builder confidence index for February, which came in as expected. I don’t recall the last time that had a perceptible influence on mortgage rates. And the same goes for tomorrow’s housing starts and building permits, also for February.
The two reports that might move mortgage rates this week are both March purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) from S&P. One covers the services sector and the other manufacturing.
They’re both expected to show purchasing activity slowing modestly. But I’ll brief you more fully on what to expect on Wednesday.
Friday has no scheduled economic reports. However, three Fed speakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, have speaking engagements that day. Those could be an opportunity to reinforce messages communicated on Wednesday and to correct any misunderstandings. So, they could have an impact on mortgage rates.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Mar. 14 report put that same weekly average at 6.74% down from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Feb. 12 and the MBA’s on Feb. 20.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.5%
6.3%
6.1%
5.9%
MBA
6.9%
6.6%
6.3%
6.1%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
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Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
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Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
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Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
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Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Greece continues to have the worst performance in household credit, registering a consistently negative rate, which was -1.7% in January against a 0.3% increase in the eurozone, according to a report published on Thursday by DBRS Morningstar, focusing on the “slow production of new mortgage loans.”
The rise in interest rates and high inflation have made the growth rate of loans in the eurozone shrink, as it plunged from 4.5% in the first half of 2022 to a marginally positive rate in 2023. This contrasts with a steady contraction in Greece, due to large repayments exceeding new disbursements.
The aversion to borrowing by households is observed despite the fact that the vast majority of new mortgage disbursements in Greece are at fixed interest rates, which, through successive reductions made by Greek banks recently, have fallen to historic lows.
Fixed term rates start at 3% for a 3-year term, while last week Eurobank further reduced the 10-year fixed rate and above by 0.30 points, which starts at 4.10% and reaches 4.30% for periods of 15, 20, 25 and 30 years.
As DBRS observes, the high interest income of Greek banks, which increased by 51% year-on-year, is mainly linked to the strengthening of the portfolio of business loans, which grew by 5.1% in 2023, against an average increase of just 0.2% in the eurozone, despite stricter lending criteria, high interest rates and high repayments.
Interest income amounted to 8.1 billion euros at the end of 2023 compared to €5.4 billion in 2022 and according to DBRS this is mainly due to the overall better performance of the Greek economy, as well as the disbursement of loans linked to the country’s growth and the Recovery Fund funds, which “will continue to support the growth of the loan portfolio combined with some recovery foreseen for new mortgages.”
Fee income in 2023 was €1.8 billion compared to €1.7 billion in 2022, up 7%, driven by increased trading income, grant activity and sales growth activity investment and bancassurance products.
Interest-only mortgages let you pay just the accruing interest on your loan for an introductory period — but they come with high payments once that period ends.
These loans mainly benefit those planning to move or anticipating a big income increase within a decade.
Since the Great Recession, interest-only mortgages have been hard to find due to their high risk.
An interest-only mortgage allows you to pay only the interest on your loan for a set period. This type of mortgage can help you more easily afford the payments in the short term — but not without some drawbacks. Here’s what to know.
What is an interest-only mortgage?
An interest-only mortgage is a home loan that allows borrowers to make interest-only payments for a set amount of time, typically between seven and 10 years, at the start of a 30-year term. After this introductory period ends, the borrower pays principal and interest for the remainder of the loan at a variable interest rate.
In the early 2000s, homebuyers gave in to the instant gratification of mortgages that allowed them to make interest-only payments at the start of the loan, so long as they took on supersized payments over the long term. This was one of the risky practices that contributed to the housing crisis in 2007, leading to the Great Recession. In the end, many people lost their homes.
Some lenders still offer interest-only mortgages today — often as an adjustable-rate loan — but with much stricter eligibility requirements. They are now considered non-qualified mortgages (non-QM loans) because they don’t meet the backing criteria for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or the other government entities that insure and repurchase mortgages. Simply put: an interest-only mortgage is a riskier product.
How do interest-only mortgages work?
With an interest-only loan, you’ll pay interest at a fixed or adjustable rate during the interest-only period. The interest rates are comparable with what you might find with a conventional loan, but because you’re not paying any principal, the initial payments are much lower. However, they may still include property taxes, homeowners insurance and possibly private mortgage insurance (PMI).
Even though you’re only required to pay the interest at first, you still have the option of paying down the principal during the loan’s introductory period.
At the end of the initial period, borrowers must repay the principal either in one balloon payment at a set date, which can be very large, or in monthly payments (that also include interest) for the remainder of the term. These payments of principal and interest are going to be larger than the interest-only ones. And, because your principal payments are being amortized over only 20 years instead of 30, those payments will be higher than those of someone with a traditional 30-year loan.
You can refinance after the interest-only period is over, although fees will likely apply.
Example of an interest-only mortgage
Say you obtain a 30-year interest-only loan for $330,000, with an initial rate of 5.1 percent and an interest-only term of seven years. During the interest-only period, you’d pay roughly $1,403 per month.
After this initial phase, with our interest-only loan example, the payment would rise to $2,033 per month — assuming your rate doesn’t change. Many interest-only loans convert to an adjustable rate, so if rates rise in the future, yours will, too (and vice versa).
With a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for the same amount, you’d pay $1,882 per month. This includes principal and interest, and also accounts for the higher rate on this type of loan — in this case, 5.54 percent.
With both the traditional fixed-rate option and our interest-only loan example, you’d pay a total of about $677,000, with around $347,000 of those payments going toward interest. As you can see, however, you’d ultimately have a higher monthly payment with an interest-only loan. If your interest-only loan requires a balloon payment instead, you’d be on the hook for several hundred thousand dollars.
How to qualify for an interest-only mortgage
Interest-only loans have been harder to come by since the housing crisis of the mid-2000s. Fewer lenders offer them, and banks have set stricter requirements to qualify.
Banks generally only offer an interest-only mortgage to a well-qualified borrower. You’ll likely need:
A credit score of 700 or more
A debt-to-income (DTI) ratio of 43 percent of less
A down payment of 20 percent or more
Solid proof of future earning potential
Ample assets
Should you consider an interest-only mortgage?
The best candidates for an interest-only mortgage are borrowers who have full confidence they’ll be able to cover the higher monthly payments when they arise. This kind of home loan might be right for you if:
You’re in graduate school and want to keep repayments low for now — but anticipate having a high-paying job in future
You have a trust that will start releasing assets at a future date
You flip houses and need to keep expenses down during the remodel
You expect to move before the end of the introductory period
Interest-only loans can be a prudent personal finance strategy under certain circumstances, but they’re not a good idea for everyone. Here are some pros and cons:
Pros of interest-only mortgages
You get more house for your money. You can enjoy a larger home for less money while you save up for a larger mortgage. That’s assuming you have a sound plan in place for when those larger payments eventually kick in. Bankrate’s affordability calculator can help you estimate how much house you can afford.
Interest-only payments are smaller than conventional mortgage payments. The initial monthly payments on interest-only loans tend to be significantly lower than payments on conventional loans, and the interest rate may be fixed during the first part of the loan. Bankrate’s interest-only mortgage calculator can help you determine what your monthly payment would be.
You kick higher payments down the road. You can delay making large mortgage payments or avoid them entirely if you plan to move out of your home before the introductory period ends.
If interest rates are high now, you can avoid them. If rates are anticipated to be lower in the future, you can keep your monthly payments relatively affordable and then reap the benefits of lower rates by the time the interest-only period ends.
Cons of interest-only mortgages
You won’t build home equity. As long as you’re only paying interest, you’re not building equity in your home. And if your home’s value depreciates, you could end up upside-down on your mortgage or risk negative amortization.
You might get an unaffordable payment after the interest-only period. You could encounter serious sticker shock when the interest-only period ends, and your monthly payments suddenly double or triple, or if you have to make a sizable balloon payment at the end of the initial period.
You’ll be at the mercy of market interest rates. If rates have risen since the loan originated, when the intro period ends, you may have a payment much higher than you want.
If your income changes, the home may be unaffordable down the road. Your anticipated future income might not match your expectations, saddling you with more house than you can afford.
Alternatives to an interest-only mortgage
Before you take on this kind of loan, ask yourself: what is an interest-only mortgage going to do for you? Make sure you think long-term.
If you want to avoid this higher-risk form of home financing, you can explore other types of mortgages. Many adjustable-rate mortgages also have a long, low-interest introductory rate period — and, since the payments include some principal, you’ll be building equity during it.
If you’re drawn to interest-only loans because of the low monthly payment, explore government-backed loans like one from the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). These can give you more affordable payments without the future jump that comes with an interest-only mortgage.
Can I change to an interest-only mortgage?
It is possible to refinance a traditional mortgage to an interest-only loan, and borrowers might consider this option as a way to free up money to put toward short-term investments or an unexpected expense. So, how do interest-only loans work as a refi? You would meet the same scrutiny and requirements as you would if applying for a first-time interest-only loan.
The same eligibility criteria for refinancing also apply, and some lenders may raise the bar since it is a higher-risk loan.
In any refinance, you will need to receive a home appraisal and pay closing costs and fees. Refinancing can cost 3 percent to 6 percent of the home’s total amount. In addition, if you have less than 20 percent equity in your home, you will be required to pay PMI.
LOS ANGELES — More homeowners eager to sell their home are lowering their initial asking price in a bid to entice prospective buyers as the spring homebuying season gets going.
Some 14.6% of U.S. homes listed for sale last month had their price lowered, according to Realtor.com. That’s up from 13.2% a year earlier, the first annual increase since May. In January, the percentage of homes on the market with price reductions was 14.7%.
The share of home listings that have had their price lowered is running slightly higher than the monthly average on data going back to January 2017.
That trend bodes well for prospective homebuyers navigating a housing market that remains unaffordable for many Americans. A chronically low supply of homes for sale has kept pushing home prices higher overall even as U.S. home sales slumped the past two years.
“Sellers are cutting prices, but it just means we’re seeing smaller price gains than we would otherwise have seen,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.
The pickup in the share of home listings with price cuts is a sign the housing market is shifting back toward a more balanced dynamic between buyers and sellers. Rock-bottom mortgage rates in the first two years of the pandemic armed homebuyers with more purchasing power, which fueled bidding wars, driving the median sale price for previously occupied U.S. homes 42% higher from 2019 through 2022.
“Essentially, the price reductions suggest far more normalcy in the housing market than we’ve seen over the last couple of years,” Hale said.
The share of properties that had their listing price lowered peaked in October 2018 at 21.7%. It got nearly as high as that — 21.5% — in October 2022.
Last year, the percentage of home listings that had their asking price lowered jumped to 18.9% in October, as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage surged to a 23-year high of 7.79%, according to Freddie Mac.
Mortgage rates eased in December amid expectations that inflation has cooled enough for the Federal Reserve begin cutting its key short term rate as soon as this spring. Those expectations were dampened following stronger-than-expected reports on inflation and the economy this year, which led to a rise in mortgage rates through most of February.
That’s put pressure on sellers to scale back their asking price to “meet buyers where they are,” Hale said.
That pressure could ease if, as many economists expect, mortgage rates decline this year.
If you’re in the market for a home, here are today’s mortgage rates compared to last week’s.
Loan term
Today’s Rate
Last week
Change
30-year mortgage rate
6.90%
7.11%
-0.21
15-year fixed rate
6.49%
6.65%
-0.16
30-year jumbo mortgage rate
7.04%
7.21%
-0.17
30-year mortgage refinance rate
6.84%
7.05%
-0.22
Average rates offered by lenders nationwide as of March 12, 2024. We use rates collected by Bankrate to track daily mortgage rate trends.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
Mortgage terms and types
When picking a mortgage, consider the loan term, or payment schedule. The most common mortgage terms are 15 and 30 years, although 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages also exist. You’ll also need to choose between a fixed-rate mortgage, where the interest rate is set for the duration of the loan, and an adjustable-rate mortgage. With an adjustable-rate mortgage, the interest rate is only fixed for a certain amount of time (commonly five, seven or 10 years), after which the rate adjusts annually based on the market’s current interest rate. Fixed-rate mortgages offer more stability and are a better option if you plan to live in a home in the long term, but adjustable-rate mortgages may offer lower interest rates upfront.
30-year fixed-rate mortgages
The 30-year fixed-mortgage rate average is 6.90%, which is a decrease of 21 basis points from one week ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) A 30-year fixed mortgage is the most common loan term. It will often have a higher interest rate than a 15-year mortgage, but you’ll have a lower monthly payment.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages
The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.49%, which is a decrease of 16 basis points from the same time last week. Though you’ll have a bigger monthly payment than a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year loan usually comes with a lower interest rate, allowing you to pay less interest in the long run and pay off your mortgage sooner.
5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages
A 5/1 ARM has an average rate of 6.46%, a decrease of 22 basis points compared to last week. You’ll typically get a lower introductory interest rate with a 5/1 ARM in the first five years of the mortgage. But you could pay more after that period, depending on how the rate adjusts annually. If you plan to sell or refinance your house within five years, an ARM could be a good option.
Mortgage rate trends
High inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes drove up mortgage rates over the last several years. Toward the end of last year, however, the Fed announced that interest rate cuts were on the table for 2024. That projection led to a significant drop in mortgage rates, pushing them into the 6% range. Since early February, however, mortgage rates have climbed back above 7% in response to strong economic data.
30-year fixed mortgage: 6.90%
15-year fixed mortgage: 6.49%
5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage: 6.46%
Mortgage rate forecasts from experts
Experts say interest rate cuts from the Fed will allow mortgage rates to ease, though the first cut won’t likely come until May or June, depending on how quickly inflation decelerates.
“We are expecting mortgage rates to fall to around 6.5% by the end of this year, but there’s still a lot of volatility I think we might see,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “It’s possible that rates might go up before they go down again, so that’s why we’re still being conservative with rates being around 6.5%.”
Each month brings a new set of inflation and labor data that can change how investors and the market respond and what direction mortgage rates go, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation. “Ongoing inflation deceleration, a slowing economy and even geopolitical uncertainty can contribute to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, data that signals upside risk to inflation may result in higher rates,” Kushi said.
While mortgage forecasters base their projections on different data, most experts and market watchers predict rates will move toward 6% or lower by the end of 2024. Here’s a look at where some major housing authorities expect average mortgage rates to land.
What influences mortgage rates?
While it’s important to monitor mortgage rates if you’re shopping for a home, remember that no one has a crystal ball. It’s impossible to time the mortgage market, and rates will always have some level of volatility because so many factors are at play.
“Mortgage rates tend to follow long-date Treasury yields, a function of current inflation and economic growth as well as expectations about future economic conditions,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
Here are the factors that influence the average rates on home loans.
Federal Reserve monetary policy: The nation’s central bank doesn’t set interest rates, but when it adjusts the federal funds rate, mortgages tend to go in the same direction.
Inflation: Mortgage rates tend to increase during high inflation. Lenders usually set higher interest rates on loans to compensate for the loss of purchasing power.
The bond market: Mortgage lenders often use long-term bond yields, like the 10-Year Treasury, as a benchmark to set interest rates on home loans. When yields rise, mortgage rates typically increase.
Geopolitical events: World events, such as elections, pandemics or economic crises, can also affect home loan rates, particularly when global financial markets face uncertainty.
Other economic factors: The bond market, employment data, investor confidence and housing market trends, such as supply and demand, can also affect the direction of mortgage rates.
Calculate your monthly mortgage payment
Getting a mortgage should always depend on your financial situation and long-term goals. The most important thing is to make a budget and try to stay within your means. CNET’s mortgage calculator below can help homebuyers prepare for monthly mortgage payments.
How to find the best mortgage rates
Though mortgage rates and home prices are high, the housing market won’t be unaffordable forever. It’s always a good time to save for a down payment and improve your credit score to help you secure a competitive mortgage rate when the time is right.
Save for a bigger down payment: Though a 20% down payment isn’t required, a larger upfront payment means taking out a smaller mortgage, which will help you save in interest.
Boost your credit score: You can qualify for a conventional mortgage with a 620 credit score, but a higher score of at least 740 will get you better rates.
Pay off debt: Experts recommend a debt-to-income ratio of 36% or less to help you qualify for the best rates. Not carrying other debt will put you in a better position to handle your monthly payments.
Research loans and assistance: Government-sponsored loans have more flexible borrowing requirements than conventional loans. Some government-sponsored or private programs can also help with your down payment and closing costs.
Shop around for lenders: Researching and comparing multiple loan offers from different lenders can help you secure the lowest mortgage rate for your situation.
Affiliate links for the products on this page are from partners that compensate us (see our advertiser disclosure with our list of partners for more details). However, our opinions are our own. See how we rate mortgages to write unbiased product reviews.
Mortgage rates fell late last week, and they remain low today. Average 30-year mortgage rates have generally been hovering in the 6.30% to 6.40% range this week, according to Zillow data. This is a significant drop from the start of the month, when rates were above 6.60%.
Where mortgage rates go next depends on the economy. Though the latest data suggests that the economy is slowly coming into better balance, any hotter-than-expected reports could cause rates to spike like they did in February.
As long as inflation continues to slow and the labor market doesn’t heat back up, mortgage rates should go down in 2024.
Mortgage rates have remained elevated so far this year as markets have had to adjust their expectations of when the Federal Reserve might finally start cutting the federal funds rate. Right now, investors are pricing in a nearly 60% probability that the Fed will cut this rate by 25 basis points at its June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This means that we could see mortgage rates inch down just ahead of the summer months. But they may not be substantially lower until we get closer to the end of the year.
Today’s mortgage rates
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Today’s refinance rates
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s interest rates will affect your monthly payments:
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By clicking on “More details,” you’ll also see how much you’ll pay over the entire length of your mortgage, including how much goes toward the principal vs. interest.
Mortgage Rate Projection for 2024
Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased dramatically in 2022 and throughout most of 2023.
Many forecasts expect rates to fall this year now that inflation has been coming down. In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.1%, a significant slowdown compared when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022. But we’ll likely need to see more slowing before rates can drop substantially.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
When Will House Prices Come Down?
We aren’t likely to see home prices drop this year. In fact, they’ll probably rise.
Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 3.20% in 2024 and 0.30% in 2025, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 4.10% increase in 2024 and a 3.30% increase in 2024.
Sky high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices. But rates have since eased, removing some of that pressure. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which will likely push prices up.
What Happens to House Prices in a Recession?
House prices usually drop during a recession, but not always. When it does happen, it’s generally because fewer people can afford to purchase homes, and the low demand forces sellers to lower their prices.
How Much Mortgage Can I Afford?
A mortgage calculator can help you determine how much house you can afford. Play around with different home prices and down payment amounts to see how much your monthly payment could be, and think about how that fits in with your overall budget.
Typically, experts recommend spending no more than 28% of your gross monthly income on housing expenses. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn’t exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
The lower your rate, the more you’ll be able to borrow, so shop around and get preapproved with multiple mortgage lenders to see who can offer you the best rate. But remember not to borrow more than what your budget can comfortably handle.
David Peskin, formerly from Senior Lending Network and Reverse Mortgage Funding (RMF), has purchased an ownership stake in top 10 reverse mortgage lender HighTechLending (HTL) and will lead the company’s new pursuits alongside co-owner and COO Erika Macias.
Peskin spoke to RMD about the move. He shed light on why now was the right time to move into an ownership role at the lender, what he hopes to accomplish and the place the reverse mortgage product will continue to play in the company’s pursuits.
The move to HighTech
In early 2023, Peskin and Eric Ellsworth joined HighTechLending initially as president and EVP of reverse sales, respectively. Their arrival came around the same time as the sudden and unexpected death of Don Currie, the company’s founder and longtime president. Currie had sought to bring both men in and work alongside them, Peskin explained.
“The idea was to work alongside Don and Erika,” Peskin told RMD in an interview. “Don was planning on retiring, and the initial arrangement for me was to buy some of his shares, and then the remaining shares over time. It was very unexpected and sad when Don passed. Don was a great guy whom I had done business with for 10 years and had come to know and trust. Unfortunately when Don passed, it created, I would say, a level of uncertainty in our future with HighTech given that he left all of his shares to his estate which had control over HighTech.”
This put any long-term decisions on hold until Peskin and the company could determine a way forward, but the arrival of 2024 saw the formation of a deal that would effectively continue the original plan, Peskin said.
“The good news is that we finally signed a definitive agreement in January of this year to buy 100% of the estate’s shares,” Peskin said. “And now, we’re simply waiting for regulatory approval. Hopefully, we’ll have that in the next 60 to 90 days.”
Macias remains a shareholder and the COO of the company, and Peskin looks forward to continuing work alongside her.
“She is still an equity owner and she’ll continue to do what she’s been doing,” he said. “She’s been an outstanding partner, we got very lucky to end up in the same place together. We’re very excited to work with her. She’s just been incredible.”
Looking to the future
The closure of RMF was a major shock to the reverse mortgage industry, and when asked about his thoughts on the situation as he takes a leading role at another company he said he is primarily focused on the future.
“I ran the origination side of the business, and was heavily focused on growing our origination platform,” he said. “We had a great team there, and did a great job building an outstanding origination platform. I know people loved working for us, so we’ll build the same culture.”
But Peskin also has a passion for the reverse mortgage market that brought him back into the fold, he explained.
“I’m a big believer in this market, and a bigger believer in solving seniors’ cash flow problems,” he explained. “Because of that, I’m focused on the future, and setting out what I intended to do even before RMF: giving people as many options as possible so they can access their home equity for a safe and secure retirement.”
The question of forward integration
A core takeaway for him is that his previous company was exclusively focused on one product, while HighTech has more product offerings available for its professionals to use.
“One reason I’m excited to purchase HTL is that [at RMF] we only offered reverse mortgages,” he said. “HTL offers a whole suite of products. We think that if you want to properly provide the older homeowners an opportunity to access the equity in the home, you’ve got to offer more than one product. It can’t just be reverse mortgages, it has to be a suite of an overall solution to the customer [that allows them] to let them pick what the best product is for them. And that’s a very big difference.”
A rise in forward mortgage companies are interested in entering the reverse mortgage space.
“Over time, people can learn both products, especially with the use of technology,” he explained. “But I don’t see how you can do [either] without having proper internal support. That’s why it’s so important to have a great support team that knows the diversity of products.”
Older people have a well-documented preference to remain in their homes, but the sentiment around tapping home equity remains low, he recognized.
“I know there are studies saying people don’t want to access the equity in their home, but at the end of the day for a lot of older homeowners, if they want to remain in their home they’re going to have to access their equity. But a reverse mortgage may not be the right product for them.”
Communicating to the industry
Peskin doesn’t expect to make any major changes to HighTech once the deal to buy Currie’s shares is finalized, outside of bringing more people into the fold, he said. He wants the industry to know that the company will be looking to go where older clients feel they need to, which includes a broader product mix than strictly reverse mortgages.
“You’ve got to look at it realistically,” he said. “You need to ask, ‘what do these customers need based on their current situation?’ And if I’ve got products to serve them today, or five-to-ten years from now, then I can build a business around that. I don’t think you can just look at today, you’ve got to look at how to help our loan officers be successful in growing their business.”
The only way to do that, he said, is with products that can meet the needs of both clients while emphasizing the strengths of employees.
“Loan officers need a good diversification of products, and the ability to offer those products,” he said.
“Mortgage rates ticked back up in February—a disappointing development for prospective homebuyers, who just a few months ago got a glimmer of hope as rates finally started to fall,” Fairweather said. “With rates still elevated, many are opting to continue renting, which is buoying rental demand, and as a result, rent prices.” However, there’s potential … [Read more…]
Editor’s Note: Options are not suitable for all investors. Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Please see the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
The greenshoe option allows underwriters involved with IPOs to sell more shares than initially agreed upon: usually up to 15% more. That can occur if there is enough investor demand to purchase the shares.
Because IPO share prices can be volatile, the greenshoe option is an important tool that can help underwriters stabilize the price of a newly listed stock to protect both the company and investors.
Understanding the Greenshoe Option
Also called the over-allotment option, the greenshoe provision is part of an underwriting agreement between an underwriter and a company issuing stock as part of an IPO, or initial public offering. The greenshoe option is the only type of price stabilization allowed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The SEC allows this because it increases competitiveness and efficiency of IPO fundraising. It gives underwriters the ability to stabilize security prices by increasing the available supply. It is the responsibility of an underwriter to help sell shares, build a market for a new stock, and use the tools at their disposal to launch a successful initial public offering.
The greenshoe option got its name when the Green Shoe Manufacturing Company was issued the first over-allotment options in 1919.
💡 Quick Tip: Access to IPO shares before they trade on public exchanges has usually been available only to large institutional investors. That’s changing now, and some brokerages offer pre-listing IPO investing to qualified investors.
How Does a Greenshoe Option Work?
During the IPO process, stock issuers set limits on how many shares they will sell to investors during an IPO. With a greenshoe option, the IPO underwriter can sell up to 15% more shares than the set amount.
IPO underwriters want to sell as many shares as they can because they earn on commission as a percentage of IPO sales.
All of the details about an IPO sale and underwriter abilities appear in the prospectus filed by the issuing company before the sale. Not every company allows their investment banker to use the greenshoe option. For instance, if they only want to raise a specific amount of capital, they wouldn’t want to sell any more shares than necessary to raise that money.
There are two ways an underwriter can over allot sales:
At the IPO Price
If the IPO they are underwriting is doing well, investors are buying IPO shares and the price is going up, the underwriter can use the greenshoe option to purchase up to 15% more stock from the issuing company at the IPO price and sell that stock to investors at the higher market price for a profit.
A Break Issue
Conversely, if an IPO isn’t doing well, the underwriter can take a short position on up to 15% of the issued stock and buy back shares from the market to stabilize the price and cover their position.
The underwriter then returns those additional shares to the issuing company. This is known as a “break issue.” When an IPO isn’t performing well, this can reduce consumer confidence in the stock, and result in investors either selling their shares or refraining from buying them.
The greenshoe option helps the underwriter stabilize the stock price and reduce stock volatility.
Types of Greenshoe Options
There are three types of greenshoe options an underwriter might choose to use depending on what happens after an IPO launches. These options are:
Full Greenshoe
If the underwriter can’t buy back any shares before the stock price increases, this is known as a full greenshoe. In this case, the underwriter buys shares at the current offering price.
Partial Greenshoe
In a partial greenshoe scenario, the underwriter only buys back some of the stock inventory they started with in order to increase the share price.
Reverse Greenshoe
The third option for underwriters is to purchase shares from market investors and sell them back to the stock issuer if the share price has dipped below the original offering price. This is similar to a put option in stock trading.
Recommended: How Are IPO Prices Set?
Greenshoe Option Examples
Here’s an example of how a greenshoe option might work in real life.
Once the IPO company owners, underwriter, and clients determine the offering or initial price of the newly issued shares, they’re ready to be traded on the public market. Ideally, the share price will rise above offering, but if the shares fall below the offering price the underwriter can exercise the greenshoe option (assuming the company had approved it in the prospectus).
To control the price, the underwrite can short up to 15% more shares than were part of the original IPO offering.
Let’s say a company’s initial public offering is going to be 10 million shares. The underwriters can sell up to 15% over that amount, or 1.5 million more shares, thus giving underwriters the ability to increase or decrease the supply as needed — adding to liquidity and helping to control price stability.
💡 Quick Tip: Investment fees are assessed in different ways, including trading costs, account management fees, and possibly broker commissions. When you set up an investment account, be sure to get the exact breakdown of your “all-in costs” so you know what you’re paying.
What the Greenshoe Option Means for IPO Investors
The greenshoe option is an important tool for underwriters that can help with the success of an IPO and bring additional funds to the issuing company. It reduces risk for the issuing company as well as investors. It can maintain IPO investor confidence in a newly issued stock which helps to build a long-term group of shareholders.
Although buying IPO stocks can be very profitable, stock prices don’t always increase and sometimes they can be volatile. It’s important for investors to research a company, look at the IPO prospectus, understand what the stock lock-up period and greenshoe options are before deciding to buy.
The Takeaway
Buying shares in IPOs can be a great way to invest in companies right when they go public. Although IPO investing comes with some risks, and IPO stock can be volatile, investment banks and companies going public use tools such as the greenshoe option to minimize volatility.
Whether you’re curious about exploring IPOs, or interested in traditional stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), you can get started by opening an account on the SoFi Invest® brokerage platform. On SoFi Invest, eligible SoFi members have the opportunity to trade IPO shares, and there are no account minimums for those with an Active Investing account. As with any investment, it’s wise to consider your overall portfolio goals in order to assess whether IPO investing is right for you, given the risks of volatility and loss.
For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.
Photo credit: iStock/AzmanJaka
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Investing in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) involves substantial risk, including the risk of loss. Further, there are a variety of risk factors to consider when investing in an IPO, including but not limited to, unproven management, significant debt, and lack of operating history. For a comprehensive discussion of these risks please refer to SoFi Securities’ IPO Risk Disclosure Statement. IPOs offered through SoFi Securities are not a recommendation and investors should carefully read the offering prospectus to determine whether an offering is consistent with their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation.
New offerings generally have high demand and there are a limited number of shares available for distribution to participants. Many customers may not be allocated shares and share allocations may be significantly smaller than the shares requested in the customer’s initial offer (Indication of Interest). For SoFi’s allocation procedures please refer to IPO Allocation Procedures.
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