Broke Your Savings Resolution? How to Get Back on Track
Just because youâve already quit â or never started â a New Yearâs resolution to save more money doesnât mean itâs all over. You can make a comeback with aâ¦
Just because youâve already quit â or never started â a New Yearâs resolution to save more money doesnât mean itâs all over. You can make a comeback with aâ¦
Posted To: MBS Commentary
Bad Vibes Persist For Bonds and Rates Bonds began the day in weaker shape, thus keeping the threat of an ongoing correction alive. After a fairly sideways morning, MBS dropped more sharply in the afternoon. Treasuries maintained a gentle, but clear selling trend throughout the day. Moreover, yields easily broke up and over the 1.125% pivot point without a second though. Taken together, this is bad news for rates as it easily reinforces the negative short term trend we've been following. In turn, that negative short-term trend is part of a broader negative trend in the bigger picture. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm ADP Employment 174 vs 49 f'cast, -78 prev ISM Services PMI 58.7 vs 56.8, highest in 2 yrs ISM Employment Index highest since Feb 2020 Market Movement…(read more)
Posted To: MBS Commentary
Between Friday and Monday, it looked like the bond market might try to hold at slightly better levels than those implied by the recent bounce at 1.0% in 10yr yields. Apart from being a nice round number, the psychological pivot point at 1.0% happened to coincide with the lower boundary of the trend channel we've been tracking for months. Granted, such trends do nothing to predict every little movement, but they do suggest a general area for support and resistance. In the worst case , the current trend puts the ceiling at 1.20 to 1.25% in the short term, but other pivot points could step in to help before things get that bad. Pictures are worth more words in this case. The yellow lines show the prevailing trend channel with the "worst case" upper resistance area at 1.20-1.25. As…(read more)
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Posted To: MBS Commentary
Strong Move in Treasuries But MBS Underperform (Significantly) While much of the world of finance and institutional investment seemed to be preoccupied with day trading some truly epic ridiculousness via Game Stop, the bond market was doing a few interesting things of its own. Treasuries jumped out to an early lead with help from Europe, but several big trades helped yields move even lower after the 10yr broke an important floor at 1.075%. MBS had a completely different day with a significant amount of underperformance during and after the Fed's final buying operation of the day. At 4pm, UMBS 1.5 coupons were roughly unchanged on the day while 10yr Treasuries were nearly 5bps lower in yield! Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Market Movement…(read more)