In the northeastern corner of the United States, Maine beckons with its rugged coastline, picturesque landscapes, and rich maritime history. Known as the “Pine Tree State” for its dense forests of evergreen trees, Maine offers a unique blend of coastal charm and rustic tranquility. From the vibrant streets of Portland, the state’s cultural hub, to the serene beauty of Bar Harbor nestled along the Acadia National Park, Maine embodies a lifestyle deeply rooted in nature and community. However, living in Maine does present its own set of challenges. In this ApartmentGuide article, we’ll dive into the pros and cons of living in Maine to give you some insight on what life is like in the “Pine Tree State.”
Renting in Maine snapshot
1. Pro: Stunning natural landscapes
Maine’s natural landscapes are breathtaking, offering residents and visitors a chance to immerse themselves in the beauty of its coastal areas, forests, and mountains. Acadia National Park, for example, provides a perfect backdrop for hiking, biking, and photography, showcasing the state’s rugged coastline and forest.
2. Con: Harsh winters
Maine experiences harsh winters with heavy snowfall, freezing temperatures, and icy conditions. This can make daily life challenging, from commuting to maintaining a home. The need for winter tires, snow removal equipment, and higher heating bills are common concerns during the colder months.
3. Pro: Rich maritime history
The state’s rich maritime history is a source of pride and a significant draw for history enthusiasts. Coastal towns like Portland and Bar Harbor are steeped in seafaring tradition, with museums, historic lighthouses, and waterfront dining that highlight Maine’s connection to the sea.
4. Con: Limited public transportation
Public transportation options in Maine are limited, especially in rural areas. This can pose a challenge for those who do not drive or prefer not to rely on a car. While major cities like Portland offer some public transit services, the transit score is 4, meaning the coverage is not extensive, and most errands require a car.
5. Pro: Vibrant local food scene
Maine’s local food scene is renowned for its emphasis on fresh, locally-sourced ingredients, especially seafood. Lobster, clams, and farm-to-table restaurants are abundant, offering residents and visitors a taste of the state’s culinary excellence. Portland, in particular, is known for its innovative eateries and food festivals like A Taste of Nations Food Festival.
6. Con: High taxes
Coming in at number 9 particularly in terms of property taxes and income taxes, Maine ranks among the states with some of the highest taxes in the nation. For instance, the property tax rate stands at 1.09% meaning those wanting to jump to homeownership may face a significant financial burden, which can impact overall affordability.
7. Pro: Close-knit communities
Maine is known for its close-knit communities, where neighbors often form strong bonds and support each other. This sense of community is especially evident in smaller towns like Camden and rural areas, where local events, farmers’ markets, and community gatherings are a staple of daily life.
8. Con: Limited nightlife and entertainment options
While Maine offers a tranquil and scenic living environment, it may lack the nightlife and entertainment options found in larger cities. Residents looking for a vibrant nightlife scene, extensive shopping, or a wide variety of cultural events may find the options in Maine more limited.
9. Pro: Quaint coastal villages
Maine’s quaint coastal villages, such as Camden and Bar Harbor, offer residents a picturesque setting with charming architecture, scenic harbors, and vibrant local culture. In Camden, residents enjoy strolling along the historic streets lined with boutique shops and art galleries, while in Bar Harbor, the bustling waterfront is dotted with seafood restaurants serving fresh lobster and clam chowder.
10. Con: Seasonal tourism impact
The influx of tourists during peak seasons, especially summer and fall, can lead to crowded attractions, increased traffic, and higher prices in tourist hotspots. While tourism is a vital part of Maine’s economy, it can sometimes detract from the quality of life for year-round residents.
11. Pro: Access to outdoor activities
Maine’s diverse landscape offers unparalleled access to a variety of outdoor activities, from skiing and snowboarding in the winter to kayaking, fishing, and hiking in the warmer months. The state’s natural beauty encourages an active lifestyle and provides endless opportunities for adventure and relaxation.
12. Con: Remote location
Maine’s remote location in the northeastern corner of the United States can make travel to and from other parts of the country more time-consuming and expensive. This can be a drawback for those who frequently travel for work or pleasure, or who have family and friends living in other states.
Methodology : The population data is from the United States Census Bureau, walkable cities are from Walk Score, and rental data is from ApartmentGuide.
Interest rates care about quite a few different things, but inflation and Fed policy are two of the biggest considerations. One of the Fed’s favorite ways to track progress on inflation is the PCE price index which comes out every month, but also every quarter.
Oddly enough, the quarterly comes out a day before the monthly data on the 4 days of the year where a new quarter is reported. Today was one of those days and the quarterly data showed a big surge in inflation. The implication is that there’s a much bigger risk that tomorrow’s monthly inflation number also proves to be higher than expected.
Bonds/rates don’t like inflation to begin with, but it’s even more problematic when it has a direct bearing on Fed policy decisions. This particular news is seen as pushing the Fed even farther into the future for its first rate cut of this cycle. In other words, both the data, and the Fed implications were bad news for rates today.
The average lender jumped immediately higher by roughly an eighth of a point. This brings the top tier conventional 30yr rate index over 7.5% for the first time since November 13th. Tomorrow could add insult to injury, but it’s also worth noting that markets are expecting worse news now, so if it’s only a little worse, the injury might not be that bad.
Living with family members can be both a comforting and challenging experience, especially when those family members happen to be siblings. As adults, the dynamics change, and considerations extend beyond just familial bonds. When siblings decide to live together and potentially invest jointly, a unique set of opportunities and obstacles arise. Let’s delve into the pros and cons of such an arrangement.
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Pros
Shared Financial Responsibilities: Pooling resources with siblings can ease the burden of financial responsibilities. Whether it’s splitting rent, utilities, or groceries, dividing costs can lead to significant savings for all parties involved.
Greater Purchasing Power: When siblings join forces to invest, they can leverage their combined financial resources to access opportunities that might be out of reach individually. This could include purchasing a larger property, investing in stocks, or starting a business together.
Built-In Support System: Living with siblings means having a built-in support system readily available. Whether it’s help with chores, emotional support during tough times, or simply having someone to share a meal with, the presence of siblings can provide a sense of comfort and security.
Shared Goals and Values: Siblings often share similar upbringings, values, and life goals, which can facilitate smoother decision-making processes when it comes to investments and lifestyle choices. Aligning on common objectives can lead to a more cohesive living and investing experience.
Potential for Long-Term Wealth Building: By combining resources and investing strategically, siblings can work towards building long-term wealth for themselves and future generations. Real estate investments, for example, can appreciate over time, providing a valuable asset for the family.
Cons
Conflict and Tension: Living with siblings can sometimes lead to conflicts over finances, household responsibilities, or personal space. Differing lifestyles and personalities may clash, potentially causing tension within the household and complicating investment decisions.
Dependency Issues: Dependence on siblings for financial support or decision-making can hinder individual autonomy and personal growth. It’s essential to strike a balance between mutual support and independence to avoid feelings of resentment or overreliance.
Risk of Financial Disputes: Entering into joint investments with siblings carries the risk of financial disputes and disagreements. Differences in risk tolerance, investment preferences, or future plans may lead to conflicts regarding asset management and distribution of profits.
Limited Privacy: Sharing a living space with siblings means sacrificing some level of privacy. While it can foster closeness and bonding, it may also restrict personal freedom and make it challenging to carve out individual spaces within the home.
Uncertain Future Dynamics: Life is unpredictable, and circumstances can change over time. Siblings may experience shifts in career paths, relationships, or financial situations that impact their living arrangements and investment plans. Anticipating and adapting to these changes requires open communication and flexibility.
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It’s a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement. At face value the headlines make a better case for lower rates with GDP at 1.6 vs 2.5, wholesale inventories missing big and Jobless Claims not too far from forecast. But the devil is in the details–specifically, the details inside the quarterly GDP data. GDP will be reported 3 times for Q1. Today was the first of those and as such, the PCE price data component offers a bit of a sneak peek at tomorrow’s PCE inflation data.
GDP is not a hugely important report, but PCE inflation is. With all that in mind, the PCE component in today’s data was 3.7 vs 3.4. In a world where a 0.1 beat/miss can cause massive volatility for the bond market, that’s a huge beat. Bonds will likely be feeling extra defensive until and unless tomorrow’s Core PCE number tells a slightly less dramatic story.
Stocks haven’t loved the data either, due to the implications for the Fed’s rate outlook. The following isn’t the pattern normally associated with stocks and bonds, but it is prevalent at times when the market is actively refining its outlook for the Fed Funds Rate.
In the slightly bigger picture, this morning’s weakness constitutes the first significant break above the 4.65 level and it breathes a bit more life into the uptrend that had dominated the month of April (the one that looked to be defeated by the 4.65 ceiling.
I want to sell you a piece of The Best Interest. It’s $100 per share.
I also guarantee it will be worth $110 tomorrow. Yes, an instant 10% profit in just one day. The guarantee is part of my magical powers. It’s my hypothetical, after all. It’s truly zero risk.
Hopefully we all agree my offer would instantly sell out. Every $100 share would sell because the idea of a risk-free, 1-day return of 10% is too good to pass up. As Warren Buffett would say, “I’m selling a dollar for 90 cents.”
That’s demand. As in “supply and demand.” The outrageous demand for $100 shares would catch my eye. Demand demands higher prices. Would people buy them for $101? Or more? The answer is: “Of course.”
So I’d raise the price to $101, then $102, etc. At each stop, the demand for guaranteed 1-day returns (9%, 8%, or even lower) would still be high. Rinse and repeat, the demand justifies higher and higher prices. But eventually, we’d hit an equilibrium where the size of the 1-day guaranteed return would be on par with other options in the investment universe. The demand would level off, as would the appropriate price.
For example, the overnight U.S. Treasury rate is 5.33% as of this writing (that’s an annualized rate), which equates to a 0.014% return per day. If my shares of The Best Interest are guaranteed to sell for $110 tomorrow AND the guarantee (a.k.a. the risk) is on par with that of U.S. Treasury notes, then we should discount my shares down 0.014% to about $109.98 today.
The more guaranteed an investment’s return, the closer that return will resemble the US Treasury’s risk-free rate. The less guaranteed a return, the more we, as investors, need to demand a larger reward.
That’s a fundamental tenet of investing. The logic works in reverse, too: the larger the reward we seek, the less guaranteed any return will be.
US Treasury notes are the baseline. The return is guaranteed over a short timeline, with the full faith and credit of the US government. It’s considered the closest thing to a guarantee in the investment universe. Therefore, US Treasury note returns are lower than any risk-bearing asset.
When we move up the risk spectrum to stocks, we expect a larger return. But must accept more volatility and the realistic probablitity that our investment will lose money, especially over short timelines.
If stocks were as guaranteed as bonds, stocks would have the same return as bonds. We don’t want that! We want more returns. The only way we’ll get there is by stomaching more risk. That’s the risk premium.
To visualize this idea, we need to overlay the following two graphs on top of one another. More risk equates to more expected return, but also to a significantly wider range of potential outcomes, including negative outcomes.
When novice investors say, “I want high returns, but only if it’s low risk,” they ask for the impossible.
If such an investment existed—just like my initial offering of shares of The Best Interest, a guaranteed 10% overnight—hungry investors would devour it. Their demand would spike the investment’s price. That higher price would squeeze away the expected return until the investment’s risk/reward profile reached equilibrium with the rest of the investable universe.
Anyone who, for example, guarantees the returns of stocks is fundamentally mistaken. This includes J.L. Collins 🙂
We can speak in probabilities and suggest that, over long timelines, stocks will probably have strong returns. But that’s not a guarantee. There’s risk involved. And that very risk is the only reason why stocks’ probable strong returns exist in the first place! Whoa! Circular!
Risk and reward. Demand and price. These ideas are intrinsically linked, and every intelligent investor needs to understand that.
Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed this article, join 8000+ subscribers who read my 2-minute weekly email, where I send you links to the smartest financial content I find online every week.
-Jesse
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Were the good old days really all that good? Sure, when mortgage rates were below 3%, it was a lot cheaper to purchase a house, but we were also in the middle of a global pandemic.
At the start of 2021, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 2.65%, according to data from Freddie Mac. During the homebuying boom of 2020 and 2021, the number of borrowers taking out new mortgages reached a more than two-decade high.
Over the past two years, a combination of high mortgage rates, low housing inventory and sluggish wage growth has crippled affordability for homebuyers.
While many are holding out for mortgage rates to fall, it’s unlikely we’ll see 2% mortgage rates any time soon. In fact, experts hope we don’t.
A return to that kind of low-rate environment would indicate major problems in the economy, said Alex Thomas, senior research analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting.
Mortgage rates typically fall during a recession. But a recession also comes with widespread unemployment, increased debt, investment losses and overall financial instability.
In today’s housing market, homebuyers should have realistic expectations. Experts predict mortgage rates to inch closer to 6% by the end of the year as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates. Record-low mortgage rates aren’t in the cards again, and that’s likely for the best.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
How did mortgage rates drop below 3% in the first place?
Economic uncertainty and market volatility — whether during an election cycle or a pandemic — impact the direction of mortgage rates. It’s often said that bad news for the economy is good news for mortgage rates, and vice versa.
A significant lever for mortgage rates is the federal funds rate, which the Fed keeps low when it needs to stimulate economic growth. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed slashed that benchmark rate to zero to bolster the economy. When there were signs of recovery in 2015, the central bank started raising interest rates again, sending mortgage rates into the 4% to 5% range until 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic sparked another economic crisis. To incentivize people to borrow and spend money — and avoid a prolonged recession — the Fed once again cut the federal funds rate to near zero and pumped money into the economy by purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage interest rates fell quickly, bottoming out in the mid-2% range in 2021.
But the combination of supply shocks, record-low rates and an extreme increase in money supply from government stimulus helped send prices way up, according to Erin Sykes, chief economist at NestSeekers International.
In early 2022, the Fed had a new problem on its hands: inflation.
💰 Federal Reserve monetary policy
In a recession, the Federal Reserve tries to spur economic growth through quantitative easing, a monetary policy that consists of cutting the federal funds rate to encourage lending and borrowing to consumers, and increasing its purchase of government-backed bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
If the Fed needs to slow the economy down and reduce the money supply in financial markets, it does opposite: quantitative tightening. By increasing the federal funds rate and tapering its bond-buying programs, the central bank raises the cost of borrowing money, which puts upward pressure on longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates.
What caused mortgage rates to surge again?
With prices surging in 2022, the Fed’s main tool was to adjust interest rates, making credit more expensive and disincentivizing borrowing. As a result of a string of aggressive rate hikes, the federal funds rate went from near zero to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, where it’s remained since last summer. Average mortgage rates skyrocketed, peaking past 8% last October.
Although inflation has gone down, the Fed isn’t ready to start lowering rates just yet. The central bank would like to see evidence of a weaker economy (including consistently lower inflation and higher unemployment) before making any adjustments to its monetary policy.
📈 How the Fed impacts mortgage rates
Though the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it controls the federal funds rate, a short-term interest rate that determines what banks charge each other to borrow money. When the federal funds rate moves up, it impacts longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates, as banks raise interest rates on home loans to keep their profit margins intact.
Why won’t mortgage rates move toward 2% again?
Economists and housing market experts agree that mortgage rates will fall over the next several years, but not below 3%.
When mortgage rates hit their record lows just a few years ago, the federal funds rate was near zero. As the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, the plan is to do so slowly and incrementally. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects the federal funds rate will take only modest adjustments down.
In the most recent policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that the federal funds rate “will not go back down to the very low levels that we saw” during the financial crisis, suggesting that the economy can adapt to a more “neutral” benchmark rate range of between 2.4% to 3.8% in the long run, i.e., less tightening, but not too much easing from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%.
The Fed would be forced to lower rates close to zero only if there were a dramatic economic shock, such as a pandemic or recession, said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. In that case, if the central bank started purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities again, there’s a possibility mortgage rates could return to those record lows.
However, without such an upheaval, there’s a floor under how low mortgage rates will go, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll ever drop to their 2020-2021 levels.
“With the Federal Reserve ending quantitative easing and stepping out of the market for mortgage-backed securities, rates will settle at a much higher level,” said Matthew Walsh, housing economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Moody’s Analytics predicts mortgage rates will stabilize between 6% and 6.5% over the next few years. That’s high compared with the recent past, yet it’s a historically normal range for mortgage rates.
How can homebuyers adapt to higher mortgage rates?
The housing market is frustrating, but prospective homebuyers are starting to come to terms with this new reality. Following the pandemic, people are moving on with their lives, whether that’s building a family, relocating, downsizing or upgrading.
For some households, that means making room in their budget for a monthly mortgage payment at a 6% or 7% rate.
When you monitor mortgage rate movement, you’re usually looking at national averages determined by weekly rate information provided by lenders. While those rates give a picture of the “typical” mortgage rate, that’s not necessarily the rate you’ll get when applying for a mortgage.
It’s possible to get a better deal on your mortgage.
To qualify for a mortgage, most lenders require you to have a minimum credit score of 620, but lenders offer the lowest mortgage rates to consumers with excellent credit scores, around 740 and above.
You might also consider purchasing mortgage points, also known as discount points. This is an extra fee you pay upfront in exchange for a lower interest rate. Each mortgage point typically costs 1% of the purchase price of a home and will lower your mortgage rate by 0.25%.
A shorter-term loan like a 15-year or 10-year mortgage will have a lower interest rate than a 30-year fixed mortgage. Your monthly payments will be higher with a shorter-term loan because you’re paying the loan off in less time, but you’ll save big on interest.
Buying a home is likely the biggest transaction you’ll make in your lifetime. Regardless of the market, carefully assess your needs and what you can afford.
Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data
By:
Matthew Graham
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 4:43 PM
Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data
Bonds were weaker in the overnight session on a combination of anxiety over potential sales of US Treasuries in Japan and European economic data. The domestic session brought actual selling of US Treasuries in the form of the 5yr Treasury auction, but the market already knew about that one. The auction was reasonably well received and had no impact on trading levels. Earlier in the morning, Durable Goods came out right in line with expectations and also had essentially no impact. Overnight weakness was maintained throughout the day with most of the momentum being sideways near recent highs yields.
Durable Goods
2.6 vs 2.5 f’cast
last month revised from 1.3 to 0.7
Durables, excluding defense and aircraft
0.2 vs 0.2 f’cast
last month revised from 0.7 to 0.4
09:06 AM
Weaker overnight and little-changed after AM econ data. 10yr yield up 4.1bps at 4.644. MBS down 6 ticks (.19).
10:51 AM
Weakest levels. MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 5.6bps at 4.657
01:04 PM
Boring 5yr auction. No major reaction. MBS down 5 ticks (.16). 10yr up 4.8bps at 4.649.
03:55 PM
Roughly unchanged from the last update and mostly flat since the late AM hours.
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Is it any surprise to see a strong reaction to economic data when the phrase “data dependent” has come to unequivocally rule all other approaches to understanding the interest rate outlook? Yes, actually, it can sometimes still be a surprise because data dependency depends on the data being depended upon. In today’s case, we have a report that has been inconsequential more often than not over the past decade, but increasingly relevant in the last 2 years. There could be some debate as to whether that’s due to the gradual increase of acceptance for S&P’s PMI data in a country where ISM has long been the dominant source of PMI data or whether it’s simply due to the bond market’s strong desire for econ data. Either way, it’s a market mover today.
The reaction is so blatantly obvious that it begs the question as to how the underlaying data justifies the move. After all, there wasn’t a huge departure in Indices themselves. We’ll focus on the services side of the economy here, just to keep the chart simple, but the takeaway from Manufacturing is no different.
Broader context is helpful. Today’s move in yields is well within the weekly range and not-at-all meaningful in the bigger picture. In other words, it becomes less impressive the more we zoom out.
Average mortgage rates inched lower yesterday. But all that did was wipe out last Friday’s similarly tiny rise.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might barely budge. However, these early mini-trends often alter direction or speed as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.302%
7.353%
+0.01
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.757%
6.836%
+0.01
30-year fixed FHA
7.064%
7.111%
-0.07
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.888%
8.036%
+0.12
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.199%
7.257%
+0.05
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.663%
6.737%
+0.06
30-year fixed VA
7.292%
7.332%
+0.01
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
This morning’s Financial Times reports, “While the base case remains a reduction in borrowing costs, the options market shows a 20% probability of an increase.” That means most investors think the Federal Reserve will cut general interest rates this year, but they reckon there’s a 20% chance of the central bank actually hiking them. That’s new and scary.
Although the Fed doesn’t directly determine mortgage rates it has a huge influence on the bond market that does. And I very much doubt mortgage rates will fall consistently before the Fed signals that a cut in general interest rates is imminent. And a Fed rate hike is likely to send mortgage rates much higher: maybe back up to 8% or beyond.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged down to 4.6% from 4.64%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices decreased to $81.59 from $82.06 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices fell to $2,333 from $2,350 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — climbed to 40 from 33 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or close to unchanged. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Today
This morning’s two April purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) will likely be good for mortgage rates. These “flashes” (initial readings and subject to revision) are both from S&P.
Here are this morning’s actual numbers in bold, alongside the prepublication consensus forecasts, according to MarketWatch, together with the March actual figures:
Services PMI — 50.9 actual; 52 expected; 51.7 in March
Manufacturing PMI — 51.1 actual; 52 expected; 51.9 in March
You can see that the PMIs were worse than expected, which is typically good news for mortgage rates.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow’s durable goods orders for March rarely affect mortgage rates. And they’d need to contain some pretty shocking data to do so tomorrow.
Markets are expecting those orders to have risen by 2.6% in March compared to a 1.3% increase in February. They’ll probably need to be significantly higher than 2.% to exert upward pressure on mortgage rates and appreciably lower to push them downward.
The rest of this week
Nothing has changed since yesterday concerning economic reports due on Thursday and Friday. So, I’ll repeat what I wrote yesterday:
We’re due the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March quarter on Thursday. And that could have a larger effect than PMIs and durable goods orders, depending on the gap between expectations and actuals.
But Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for March is this week’s star report. That’s the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation. And it could certainly affect mortgage rates, possibly appreciably.
The next meeting of the Fed’s rate-setting committee is scheduled to start on Apr. 30 and last two days. So, the PCE price index will be the last inflation report it sees before making decisions.
And index that shows inflation cooling could change the mood at that meeting. True, it’s vanishingly unlikely that a cut to general interest rates will be unveiled on May 1 no matter what.
But a PCE price index that shows inflation cooling could help the Fed to move forward with cuts earlier than expected, which should cause mortgage rates to fall. Unfortunately, one that suggests inflation remains hot or is getting hotter could send those rates higher.
I’ll brief you more fully on each potentially significant report on the day before it’s published.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Apr. 18 report put that same weekly average at 7.1%, up from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Mar. 19 and the MBA’s on Apr. 18.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.7%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
MBA
6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
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Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Granted, there was a possibility that today could have been a rally day for the bond market, but as seen in the overnight trading session, that possibility depended on the escalation of war in the Middle East. There aren’t many other reasons for bonds to push back too much on recent weakness. One of the only other reasons would be Friday position squaring and short covering, but that would be just as much of an indication of ongoing bearishness in bonds. In that sense, holding sideways is possibly the best victory we could have hoped for today. The fact that we’ve avoided Tuesday’s high yields through the end of the week could even signal sideways vibes until May, at which point data and the Fed will let us know the direction of the next big move.
09:38 AM
Initially stronger overnight, but giving up gains since then. 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.609. MBS up 1 tick (.03).
10:27 AM
10yr all the way back to unchanged at 4.627. MBS down 2 ticks (.06)
02:02 PM
Broadly sideways and choppy, but currently unchanged in MBS and 10yr.
04:27 PM
Still sideways. MBS up 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.622
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