Starting Out

Bonds are starting out the new week with an overnight rally offset by domestic selling pressure.  Yields were as low as 3.90 right as US traders were turning on their screens and those stronger levels are serving as a cue to book profits so far.  The net effect is ‘unchanged’ levels a few hours into the trading day.  It’s a deceptively busy week ahead with 2 days of Powell congressional testimony (the first day is typically the bigger deal), lots of supply (both Treasury coupons and corporate bonds), and the normal glut of employment data early in any month (ADP, Challenger layoffs, JOLTS, and NFP).  Last week’s recovery and today’s sideways start mean 10yr yields are back in the sideways range marked by a 3.99% ceiling.  The floor is less interesting and less important, but according the past week of trading, 3.90% is a solid starting point.