Were the good old days really all that good? Sure, when mortgage rates were below 3%, it was a lot cheaper to purchase a house, but we were also in the middle of a global pandemic.
At the start of 2021, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 2.65%, according to data from Freddie Mac. During the homebuying boom of 2020 and 2021, the number of borrowers taking out new mortgages reached a more than two-decade high.
Over the past two years, a combination of high mortgage rates, low housing inventory and sluggish wage growth has crippled affordability for homebuyers.
While many are holding out for mortgage rates to fall, it’s unlikely we’ll see 2% mortgage rates any time soon. In fact, experts hope we don’t.
A return to that kind of low-rate environment would indicate major problems in the economy, said Alex Thomas, senior research analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting.
Mortgage rates typically fall during a recession. But a recession also comes with widespread unemployment, increased debt, investment losses and overall financial instability.
In today’s housing market, homebuyers should have realistic expectations. Experts predict mortgage rates to inch closer to 6% by the end of the year as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates. Record-low mortgage rates aren’t in the cards again, and that’s likely for the best.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
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How did mortgage rates drop below 3% in the first place?
Economic uncertainty and market volatility — whether during an election cycle or a pandemic — impact the direction of mortgage rates. It’s often said that bad news for the economy is good news for mortgage rates, and vice versa.
A significant lever for mortgage rates is the federal funds rate, which the Fed keeps low when it needs to stimulate economic growth. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed slashed that benchmark rate to zero to bolster the economy. When there were signs of recovery in 2015, the central bank started raising interest rates again, sending mortgage rates into the 4% to 5% range until 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic sparked another economic crisis. To incentivize people to borrow and spend money — and avoid a prolonged recession — the Fed once again cut the federal funds rate to near zero and pumped money into the economy by purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage interest rates fell quickly, bottoming out in the mid-2% range in 2021.
But the combination of supply shocks, record-low rates and an extreme increase in money supply from government stimulus helped send prices way up, according to Erin Sykes, chief economist at NestSeekers International.
In early 2022, the Fed had a new problem on its hands: inflation.
💰 Federal Reserve monetary policy
In a recession, the Federal Reserve tries to spur economic growth through quantitative easing, a monetary policy that consists of cutting the federal funds rate to encourage lending and borrowing to consumers, and increasing its purchase of government-backed bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
If the Fed needs to slow the economy down and reduce the money supply in financial markets, it does opposite: quantitative tightening. By increasing the federal funds rate and tapering its bond-buying programs, the central bank raises the cost of borrowing money, which puts upward pressure on longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates.
What caused mortgage rates to surge again?
With prices surging in 2022, the Fed’s main tool was to adjust interest rates, making credit more expensive and disincentivizing borrowing. As a result of a string of aggressive rate hikes, the federal funds rate went from near zero to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, where it’s remained since last summer. Average mortgage rates skyrocketed, peaking past 8% last October.
Although inflation has gone down, the Fed isn’t ready to start lowering rates just yet. The central bank would like to see evidence of a weaker economy (including consistently lower inflation and higher unemployment) before making any adjustments to its monetary policy.
📈 How the Fed impacts mortgage rates
Though the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it controls the federal funds rate, a short-term interest rate that determines what banks charge each other to borrow money. When the federal funds rate moves up, it impacts longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates, as banks raise interest rates on home loans to keep their profit margins intact.
Why won’t mortgage rates move toward 2% again?
Economists and housing market experts agree that mortgage rates will fall over the next several years, but not below 3%.
When mortgage rates hit their record lows just a few years ago, the federal funds rate was near zero. As the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, the plan is to do so slowly and incrementally. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects the federal funds rate will take only modest adjustments down.
In the most recent policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that the federal funds rate “will not go back down to the very low levels that we saw” during the financial crisis, suggesting that the economy can adapt to a more “neutral” benchmark rate range of between 2.4% to 3.8% in the long run, i.e., less tightening, but not too much easing from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%.
The Fed would be forced to lower rates close to zero only if there were a dramatic economic shock, such as a pandemic or recession, said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. In that case, if the central bank started purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities again, there’s a possibility mortgage rates could return to those record lows.
However, without such an upheaval, there’s a floor under how low mortgage rates will go, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll ever drop to their 2020-2021 levels.
“With the Federal Reserve ending quantitative easing and stepping out of the market for mortgage-backed securities, rates will settle at a much higher level,” said Matthew Walsh, housing economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Moody’s Analytics predicts mortgage rates will stabilize between 6% and 6.5% over the next few years. That’s high compared with the recent past, yet it’s a historically normal range for mortgage rates.
How can homebuyers adapt to higher mortgage rates?
The housing market is frustrating, but prospective homebuyers are starting to come to terms with this new reality. Following the pandemic, people are moving on with their lives, whether that’s building a family, relocating, downsizing or upgrading.
For some households, that means making room in their budget for a monthly mortgage payment at a 6% or 7% rate.
When you monitor mortgage rate movement, you’re usually looking at national averages determined by weekly rate information provided by lenders. While those rates give a picture of the “typical” mortgage rate, that’s not necessarily the rate you’ll get when applying for a mortgage.
It’s possible to get a better deal on your mortgage.
To qualify for a mortgage, most lenders require you to have a minimum credit score of 620, but lenders offer the lowest mortgage rates to consumers with excellent credit scores, around 740 and above.
You might also consider purchasing mortgage points, also known as discount points. This is an extra fee you pay upfront in exchange for a lower interest rate. Each mortgage point typically costs 1% of the purchase price of a home and will lower your mortgage rate by 0.25%.
A shorter-term loan like a 15-year or 10-year mortgage will have a lower interest rate than a 30-year fixed mortgage. Your monthly payments will be higher with a shorter-term loan because you’re paying the loan off in less time, but you’ll save big on interest.
Buying a home is likely the biggest transaction you’ll make in your lifetime. Regardless of the market, carefully assess your needs and what you can afford.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) on Wednesday released a new edition of its Supervisory Highlights publication, which includes the agency’s actions to combat what it calls “junk fees charged by mortgage servicers, as well as other illegal practices.”
Examinations conducted by the bureau found mortgage servicers levied charges it deems “illegal,” including prohibited property inspection fees, the issuance of “deceptive” notices to borrowers, and violations of loss-mitigation rules. Financial institutions refunded these fees to borrowers based on CFPB findings and “stopped their illegal practices,” the agency said.
“Homeowners cannot just simply switch providers if their mortgage servicer charges them illegal junk fees,“ CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement accompanying the new publication. “Since mortgage borrowers are captive to a company they never chose to do business with, we are working hard to detect and deter violations of law.”
In addition to these findings, the bureau also claims that certain mortgage servicers failed to waive certain late fees and penalties that stem from challenges faced by borrowers during the COVID-19 pandemic. The agency also asserted that deadlines to pay property taxes and homeowners insurance were impacted.
“Mortgage servicers that accepted or required money from borrowers to pay taxes and insurance failed to make those payments in a timely manner, which caused some borrowers to incur penalties,” the bureau stated. “Servicers only took responsibility for those penalties for missed on-time payments if homeowners submitted complaints.”
Among the allegedly deceptive notices sent to borrowers include statements that certain borrowers in financial distress “had been approved for a repayment option,” when the reality was that “no final decisions had been made, and some of the homeowners were ultimately rejected.”
CFPB examiners also found servicers sent some homeowners “false notices saying that they had missed payments and should apply for repayment options,” and that servicers also “improperly denied requests for help and failed to evaluate struggling borrowers for repayment options as required under the CFPB’s mortgage servicing rules.”
The bureau added that mortgage servicers are taking corrective actions, including changes to certain policies and procedures. Servicers are also providing refunds for any issues related to fees, the agency said.
“The CFPB has been looking at ways to streamline mortgage servicing rules, while making sure mortgage servicers fulfill their obligations to treat homeowners fairly,” the bureau added.
The number of U.S. citizens flying to international destinations reached nearly 6.5 million passengers in March, according to the International Trade Administration. That’s the highest March total in over five years and shows that the post-pandemic “revenge travel” trend is the new normal.
It wasn’t just March, which usually sees a spike in international departures for spring break. In every month of 2024 so far, more Americans left the country than last year and 2019. These trends point to a blockbuster summer for overseas travel.
Nearly half of Americans (45%) plan to travel by air and/or stay in a hotel this summer and expect to spend $3,594 on average, on these expenses, according to a survey of 2,000 U.S. adults, conducted online by The Harris Poll and commissioned by NerdWallet.
That’s despite rising travel prices that have caused some hesitancy among would-be travelers. About 22% of those choosing not to travel this summer cite inflation making travel too expensive as a reason for staying home, according to the poll.
So where are traveling Americans going? And what does it mean for those looking to avoid crowds of tourists and higher travel prices?
New travel patterns
Nearly every region in the world saw an increase in U.S. visitors in March 2024 compared with March 2023, according to International Trade Administration data. Only the Middle East saw a decline of 9%. Yet not every region saw the same year-over-year bump. U.S. visitors to Asia saw a 33% jump, while Oceania and Central America each saw a 30% increase.
Comparing 2024 with 2023 only tells part of the story, however. The new patterns really emerge when comparing international travel trends to 2019. For example, Central America received 50% more U.S. visitors in March 2024 compared with March 2019. Nearly 1.5 million Americans visited Mexico, up 39% compared with before the pandemic. That’s almost as many visitors as the entire continent of Europe, which has seen a more modest 10% increase since 2019.
Only Canada and Oceania saw fewer visitors in March 2024 than in 2019, suggesting that interest in these locations has not rebounded. Indeed, the trends indicate a kind of tourism inertia from COVID-19 pandemic-era lockdowns: Those destinations that were more open to U.S. visitors during the pandemic, such as Mexico, have remained popular, while those that were closed, such as Australia, have fallen off travelers’ radars.
Price pressures
How these trends play out throughout the rest of the year will depend on a host of factors. Yet, none will likely prove more important than affordability. After months of steadiness, the cost of travel, including airfare, hotels and rental cars, has begun to sneak up again.
About 45% of U.S. travelers say cost is their main consideration when planning their summer vacation, according to a survey of 2,000 Americans by the travel booking platform Skyscanner.
That’s likely to weigh further on U.S. travelers’ appetite for visiting expensive destinations such as Europe, while encouraging travel to budget-friendly countries. It could also depress overall international travel as well, yet so far, Americans seem to be traveling more.
For those looking to avoid crowds while maintaining a budget, Skyscanner travel trends expert Laura Lindsay offered a recommendation many of us might need help finding on a map.
“Albania has been on the radar of travelers looking for something different,” Lindsay said. “Most people have yet to discover it, but flights and tourism infrastructure are in place, and there are fewer crowds in comparison to trending European destinations like Italy, Greece, or Portugal.”
On the flip side, American travelers looking to avoid crowds of compatriots would do well to avoid Japan, which has seen a staggering 50% increase in U.S. tourists between March 2019 and 2024.
How to maximize your rewards
You want a travel credit card that prioritizes what’s important to you. Here are our picks for the best travel credit cards of 2024, including those best for:
Frankly, however, the biggest surprise at the moment might be that sales volumes have held up pretty well over the past few weeks even as mortgage rates have climbed into the mid-7s. We’ve been talking about sales growth over the past year. More home sales are happening, but we can also see — once adjusted for seasonal patterns — that sales should be much higher now if a real market recovery were underway.
It feels like the latest macro trends will keep mortgage rates in the mid-7% range for the near term. And we’d expect that to slow home sales further. That’s why Altos Research tracks every home for sale in the country each week. The data so often defies expectations or changes very quickly. Let’s dig further into the details of the U.S. housing market for the week of April 22.
Housing inventory
When we look at the active inventory of unsold homes on the market, we can definitely see the impact of higher mortgage rates in the past month. There are 543,000 single-family homes on the market now. That’s a 3% jump from last week and 31% above year-ago levels.
The available inventory of unsold homes on the market is building quickly due to the most recent mortgage rate jumps. There are 130,000 more homes on the market now than last year at this time.
Normally, inventory is climbing at this point in the second quarter. We’re rapidly approaching the peak of the market in terms of seller listings, and as inventory builds, the sales rate will peak by the end of June. So, it’s normal that inventory is growing now.
But when you add a spike in mortgage rates that makes homebuying less affordable, that leads to fewer buyers and inventory grows. Altos data currently shows an inflection point in April. With the most recent mortgage rate jump, inventory growth has also accelerated.
This is what is meant when we say that higher rates leads to higher inventory. We are on the path back to the formerly normal levels of unsold homes on the market. A couple more years with elevated rates will get us there.
But it’s also noteworthy to point out that falling rates reverse this trend. Lower rates mean that people snap up the existing inventory.
New listings
Growing inventory is not just about slowing demand. We are also consistently measuring more sellers coming back into the market. At 69,000 new listings unsold today, that’s 3% more than a week ago and 14% more than this time last year.
In fact, there are more new sellers this week than in any week of 2023. This selling season still has two more months of growth potential. Industry professionals would love to see 70,000 or 80,000 new listings per week in May. More sellers means more sales can happen. There’s a limit, of course, as we could eventually reach an imbalance if too many sellers flood the market and too few buyers follow suit. But we’re not close to that yet.
In the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, the latter half of April would normally see 80,000 to 100,000 new listings in a week. Now we’re at 69,000. Obviously, elevated mortgage rates slows both buyer and seller activity. There are a lot of people who will never sell their house with a 3% mortgage.
There’s unlikely to be a flood of sellers in the next few years, but we can see steady growth. Each year with higher rates will create more inventory growth and have fewer people locked into low rates. That growth is good for the market.
The available inventory of homes to buy and the new ones being listed for sale each week are what consumers care about. If I’m buying a house, do I have any houses to buy? For homebuyers, the selection they have now is the most they’ve had in years.
Real estate professionals, on the other hand, have to care about transaction volume. How many home sales are happening? Because there were so few sellers last year, the number of sales was quite constricted. That’s starting to change. The 14% increase in new listings over the past year is a really good sign that sales can grow.
Pending sales
When we look at the sales rate, we can indeed see that home sales are growing. There were 71,000 new contracts started for single-family homes this week. That’s 3% more than last week and 7% more than a year ago.
There are still 8% fewer sales happening each week than in 2022. At that time two years ago, there were frantic last-minute deals getting done as mortgage rates were rising quickly. So, even though rates were up back then, sales were still strong.
But the hectic pandemic-era pace of sales had slowed, so inventory was building quickly. In 2022, the new sales rates really cratered after the Fourth of July holiday.
There are now 385,000 single-family homes under contract. That’s 5% growth compared to this time last year but is still 14% less than two years ago. New sales started this week saw 7% growth while the total number of homes under contract saw 5% growth.
It takes 30 to 40 days for the typical sale to close. The homes under contract now will mostly close in April and May. The 5% annualized growth rate is less than we’d hoped for at the start of the year, but it’s creeping up even with higher mortgage rates.
Altos Research uses direct measurement rather than seasonally adjusting its numbers. There are 385,000 single-family homes in escrow to complete a sale as of today. If you were to approximate a seasonal adjustment on this number, you would see a yearly sales pace of about 4.4 million units for April 2024. That pace is up from April 2023, but it is still running slower than the typical April. The seasonal pace is where one can observe the slowdown due higher mortgage rates.
The takeaway from the weekly new pending sales data is that even though sales continue to outpace last year, that growth has definitely slowed.
Home prices
The median price of single-family homes under contract is now $398,000. That jumped by 2.4% jump this week and is, in fact, a new all-time-high, surpassing the sale prices of two years ago.
These spring weeks are indeed the time when home prices climb, so it’s not too surprising that this trend is occurring now. But we’ve also been keeping a close eye on home prices in the face of these rising mortgage rates.
The prices of the homes going under contract are 6% more expensive than one year ago. Last year at this time, home prices were lower than in April 2022. But we’re now back at all-time highs. The previous peak was $395,000 two years ago.
One thing of interest in the price data is how slow this climb has been. Compared to Jan. 1, 2024, prices are up 6.6%. In most years, the increase is closer to 10% by this time in April. So, as a leading indicator for how the year ends up, this price signal is much softer than usual.
We can also see this in asking prices. The median price for all homes currently on the market is $449,000. That’s up a fraction from last week and only 1% above last year at this time.
Asking prices can be thought of as a leading indicator for future sales prices. Homes that are on the market now will get offers in May, close in June and will be reported on in July. So, the future signals for home prices aren’t falling because of higher mortgage rates, but it certainly looks like price appreciation has slowed.
Price reductions
Another strong leading indicator for future home sale prices is the share of homes on the market with price reductions. If more sellers have to cut their prices now, that’s a real signal for sales that will happen in the future.
Surprisingly, given the mortgage rate changes, there is no jump yet in the share of price reductions. We’ve been watching this stat closely.
This week, 32% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s actually down a fraction from last week, given a relatively strong set of new listings that hit the market and the fact that home sales are at their highest point of the year. Fresh inventory doesn’t take a price cut until after it sits for a while without an offer.
There are 3% more homes with price reductions today than a year ago. Last year at this time, price cuts were still decreasing with very tight volumes of new listings. There are more homes on the market now with price cuts than in any April on record. That shows weakness in prices, but it’s not a super high number and it’s not skyrocketing, so that implies we won’t see prices tanking anytime soon.
The takeaway here is that with the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.4%, there is still just enough sales volume to keep home prices from dropping like they did in late 2022. The current market is not changing nearly that quickly. We’ll continue to watch data on price cuts. As mortgage rates make homes less affordable, fewer offers will be made and some sellers will cut their prices. That could accelerate in the next few weeks.
“So all the new permits that are getting [approved], all the new lands that are getting bought now – we’re not going to see anything until 2026-27 at this point,” he said. “So we need five, six years of that market.” US mortgage rates last week topped 7% for the first time in a month, … [Read more…]
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) this week announced a new product proposal for government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) Freddie Mac that would allow the agency to purchase certain single-family, closed-end second mortgages.
This would offer borrowers an alternative way to access their home equity without surrendering a first mortgage with a more favorable interest rate than is currently available.
The proposal, published in the Federal Register, recognizes that existing borrowers “face limited options” if they seek to access equity on their primary residence, particularly if they have a mortgage rate from a loan originated during the low-rate environment of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“[A] traditional cash-out refinance today may pose a significant financial burden, as it requires a refinancing of the entire outstanding loan balance at a new, and likely much higher, interest rate,” FHFA said in its proposal. “Homeowners may also use second mortgages to access the equity in their homes, [where] only the smaller, second mortgage would be subject to the current market rate, as the original terms of the first mortgage would remain intact.”
Second mortgages are also typically offered at a lower interest rate than certain alternative products like personal loans, so Freddie Mac’s proposal is to purchase “certain closed-end second mortgage loans from primary market lenders” that are already approved to sell mortgages to Freddie Mac, the proposal states.
“In a closed-end second mortgage loan, the borrower’s funds are fully disbursed when the loan closes, the borrower repays over a set time schedule, and the mortgage is recorded in a junior lien position in the land records,” FHFA stated. “Freddie Mac has indicated that the primary goal of this proposed new product is to provide borrowers a lower cost alternative to a cash-out refinance in higher interest rate environments.”
FHFA Director Sandra Thompson explained that such options are needed in the current mortgage rate environment.
“The proposed activity is intended to provide homeowners with a cost-effective alternative for accessing the equity in their homes,” Thompson said in an announcement of the proposal. “Reviewing and considering comments from the public will be a critical component of our review as the agency exercises its statutory responsibility to evaluate new enterprise products.”
This is specifically designed to benefit consumers during the high rate environment, the agency said.
“In the current mortgage interest rate environment, a closed-end second mortgage may provide a more affordable option to homeowners than obtaining a new cash-out refinance or leveraging other consumer debt products,” the proposal explained. “A significant portion of borrowers have low interest rate first mortgages, and the proposal would allow those homeowners to retain this beneficial interest rate on the first mortgage and avoid resetting to a higher rate through a cash-out refinance.”
The Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992, as amended by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) of 2008, requires the GSEs to provide advance notice to FHFA of any potential actions or products they aim to pursue. This notice demonstrates that FHFA is fulfilling its mandate and seeks public comments on the proposal.
The comment period lasts 30 days from the publication of the proposal in the Federal Register, making May 16, 2024, the end of the comment period. Interested parties can submit comments to the agency on its website or via email.
Editorial Note: We earn a commission from partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors’ opinions or evaluations.
As we head into peak home-buying season, signs of life have begun to spring up in the housing market.
Even so, still-high mortgage rates and home prices amid historically low housing stock continue to put homeownership out of reach for many.
Moreover, the National Association of Realtors agreed to a monumental $418 million settlement on March 15 following a verdict favoring home sellers in a class action lawsuit. Still subject to court approval, the settlement requires changes to broker commissions that will upend the buying and selling model that has been in place for years.
Housing Market Forecast for 2024
Elevated mortgage rates, out-of-reach home prices and record-low housing stock are the perennial weeds that experts say hopeful home buyers can expect to contend with this spring—and beyond.
“The housing market is likely to continue to face the dual affordability constraints of high home prices and elevated interest rates in 2024,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, in an emailed statement. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast.”
Despite ongoing affordability hurdles, Fannie Mae forecasts an increase in home sales transactions compared to last year. Experts also anticipate a slower rise in home prices this year compared to recent years, but price fluctuations will continue to vary regionally and depend strongly on local market supply.
U.S. home prices declined in January for the third consecutive month due to high borrowing costs, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. But prices year-over-year jumped 6%—the fastest annual rate since 2022.
Chief economist at First American Financial Corporation Mark Fleming predicts a “flat stretch” ahead.
“If the 2020-2021 housing market was too hot, then the 2023 market was probably too cold, but 2024 won’t yet be just right,” Fleming said in his 2024 forecast.
Will the Housing Market Finally Recover in 2024?
For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.
“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”
And, of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off—which experts say is imminent despite rates edging back up toward 7%. For the week ending April 11, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.88%, according to Freddie Mac.
However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.
“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.
He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.
Nonetheless, Kuba Jewgieniew, CEO of Realty ONE Group, a real estate brokerage company, is optimistic about a recovery this year.
“[W]e’re definitely looking forward to a better housing market in 2024 as interest rates start to settle around 6% or even lower,” says Jewgieniew.
NAR Settlement Rocks the Residential Real Estate Industry
Following years of litigation, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers.
The plaintiffs claimed that the leading national trade association for real estate brokers and agents “conspired to require home sellers to pay the broker representing the buyer of their homes in violation of federal antitrust law.”
Though the landmark settlement is subject to court approval, most consider it a done deal.
The settlement requires NAR to enact new rules, including prohibiting offers of broker compensation on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings. The rule is set to take effect in mid-July, once the settlement receives judge approval.
Moreover, sellers will no longer be required to pay buyer broker commissions and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with their buyer clients.
NAR denies any wrongdoing and maintains that its current policies benefit buyers and sellers. The organization believes it’s not liable for seller claims related to broker commissions, stating that it has never set commissions and that commissions have always been negotiable.
How Will the New Rules Impact the Buying and Selling Process?
Per the settlement’s terms, the costs associated with buying and selling a home are set to change dramatically.
“The primary things that will change are the decoupling of the seller commission and the buyer commission in the MLS,” says Rita Gibbs, a Realtor at Realty One Group Integrity in Tucson. “It’s gonna cause some chaos.”
While sellers will no longer be able to offer broker compensation in the MLS, there’s no rule prohibiting off-MLS negotiations. Because of this, Gibbs suspects buyers and sellers will continue offering broker compensation off the MLS.
The Department of Justice confirmed it will permit listing brokers to display compensation details on their websites. However, buyer agents will need to undergo the tedious task of visiting countless broker websites to find who’s offering what.
Michael Gorkowski, a Virginia-based real estate agent with Compass, is also trying to figure out how to manage the potential ruling.
“We often work with buyers for many months and sometimes years before they find exactly what they’re looking for,” Gorkowski says. “So in a case where a seller isn’t offering a co-broker commission, we will have to negotiate that the buyer pays an agreed-upon commission prior to starting their search.”
The Changes Will Impact These Home Buyers Most
“In the short term, it is absolutely going to injure buyers, especially FHA and VA buyers,” Gibbs says. “With rare exception, these buyers are not in a position to pay for their own agent.”
Gibbs says that if sellers don’t offer compensation, many buyers who can’t otherwise afford to pay a broker will choose to go unrepresented.
Gorkowski notes that veterans taking out VA loans face a unique challenge under the new rules. “[P]er the VA requirements, buyers cannot pay so it must be negotiated with the seller for now.”
As a result, NAR is calling on the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to revise its policies prohibiting VA buyers from paying broker commissions. Even so, there’s skepticism that the federal government will be able to implement changes in time for the July deadline.
Gibbs and Gorkowski are among the many agents especially concerned about first-time home buyers. After July, first-time and VA buyers will be required to sign a buyer-broker agreement stating that they will compensate their broker—but Gibbs says many won’t have the means to do so.
In this situation, agents would likely only show buyers homes where sellers are offering compensation.
“This is a very troubling situation,” Gorkowski says.
Housing Inventory Forecast for 2024
With many homeowners “locked in” at ultra-low interest rates or unwilling to sell due to high home prices, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while—even as some homeowners may finally be forced to sell due to major life events such as divorce, job changes or a growing family.
“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.
Housing stock remains near historic lows—especially entry-level supply—which has propped up demand and sustained ultra-high home prices. Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.
Yet, some hopeful housing stock signs have begun to sprout:
Existing inventory is showing signs of loosening as impatient buyers and sellers have begun to accept the reality of mortgage rates oscillating between 6% and 7%.
Home-builder outlook also continues to get sunnier, trending back up amid declining mortgage rates and better building conditions.
The most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks builder sentiment, saw a fourth consecutive monthly rise, surpassing a crucial threshold with an increase from 48 to 51 in March. A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.
At the same time, new single-family building permits ticked up 1% in February—the 13th consecutive monthly increase—according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales
Though some housing market data indicates signs of growth are in store this spring home-buying season, persistently high mortgage rates may hinder activity from fully flourishing.
Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.
Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales came to life in February, shooting up 9.5% from the month before, according to the latest data from the NAR. Sales dipped 3.3% from a year ago.
Experts attribute the monthly jump to a bump in inventory.
“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report.
Existing inventory rose 5.9%—logging 1.07 million unsold homes at the end of February. However, there are still only 2.9 months of inventory at the current sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market falling between four and six months.
Meanwhile, existing home prices continue to soar to unprecedented heights, reaching $384,500, which marks the eighth consecutive month of yearly price increases and a February median home price record.
New Home Sales
Sales of newly constructed single-family houses ticked down by a nominal 0.3% compared to January, but outpaced February 2023 sales by 5.9%, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.
Amid a high percentage of homeowners still locked in to low mortgage rates, home builders have been picking up the slack.
“New construction continues to be an outsized share of the housing inventory,” said Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, in an emailed statement.
Sturtevant notes that declining new home prices are coming amid a recent trend of builders introducing smaller and more affordable homes to the market.
The median price for a new home in February was $400,500, down 7.6% from a year ago.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Pending Home Sales
NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index rose 1.6% in February from the month prior even as mortgage rates approached 7% by the end of the month. Pending transactions declined 7% year-over-year.
A pending home sale marks the point in the home sales transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator of future closed sales.
The Midwest and South saw monthly transaction gains while the Northeast and West saw declines due to affordability challenges in those higher-cost regions.
“While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress from the lows of late last year,” said Yun, in the report.
Ongoing Affordability Challenges Could Throw Cold Water on Spring Home-Buying Hopes
Though down from its 2023 high of 7.79%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2024 remains well over 6% amid rising home values. As a result, home buyers continue to face affordability challenges.
According to data from its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report, property data provider Attom found that median-priced single-family homes remain less affordable than the historical average in over 95% of U.S. counties.
For one, the data uncovered that expenses are eating up more than 32% of the average national wage. Common lending guidelines require monthly mortgage payments, property taxes and homeowners insurance to comprise 28% or less of your gross income.
At the same time, home prices and homeownership expenses continue to outpace wage growth.
Consequently, the latest expense-to-wage ratio is hovering at one of the highest points over the past decade, according to the Attom report, despite some slight affordability improvements over the last two quarters.
“Affording a home remains a financial stretch, or a pipe dream, for so many households,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom.
Pro Tips for Buyers and Sellers
Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.
Pro Tips for Buying in Today’s Real Estate Market
Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:
Know your budget. Instead of focusing on price, figure out how much you can afford as a monthly payment. Your monthly housing payment is influenced by the price of the home, your down payment, mortgage rate, loan term, home insurance and property taxes.
Be flexible about home size and location. Perhaps your budget is sufficient for a small home in your perfect neighborhood, or a larger, newer home further out. Understanding your priorities and having some flexibility can help you move quickly when a suitable home enters the market.
Keep an eye on the market where you hope to buy. Determine the area’s available inventory and price levels. Also, pay attention to how quickly homes sell. Not only will you be tuned in when something great hits the market, you can feel more confident moving forward with purchasing a well-priced home. A real estate agent can help with this.
Don’t be discouraged. Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions you’ll ever make. Approaching the market confidently, armed with good information and grounded expectations will take you far. Don’t let the hustle of the market convince you to buy something that’s not in your budget, or not right for your lifestyle.
Pro Tips for Selling in Today’s Real Estate Market
Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:
Research comparable home prices in your area. Sellers need to have the most up-to-date pricing intel on comparable homes selling in their market. Know the market competition and price the home competitively. In addition, understand that in some price points it’s a buyer’s market—you’ll need to be prepared to make some concessions.
Make sure your home is in top-notch shape. Homes need to be in great condition to compete and create a strong “online curb appeal.” Well-maintained homes and attractive front yards are major features that buyers look for.
Work with a local real estate agent. A real estate agent or team with a strong local marketing presence and access to major real estate portals can offer significant value and help you land a great deal.
Don’t put off issues that require attention. Prepare the home by making any repairs or improvements. Removing any objections that buyers may see helps focus the buyer on the positive attributes of the home.
Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?
Despite some areas of the country experiencing monthly price declines, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.
“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.
Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.
“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.
“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.
Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.
Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.
“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.
Will Foreclosures Increase in 2024?
In February, total foreclosure filings were down 1% from the previous month but up 8% from a year ago, according to Attom.
“These trends could signify evolving financial landscapes for homeowners, prompting adjustments in market strategies and lending practices,” said Barber, in a report.
Lenders began foreclosure on 22,575 properties in February, up 4% from the previous month and 11% from a year ago. Meanwhile, real estate-owned properties, or REOs, which are homes unsold at foreclosure auctions and taken over by lenders, spiked year-over-year in three states: South Carolina (up 51%), Missouri (up 50%) and Pennsylvania (up 46%).
Despite foreclosure activity trending up nationally and certain areas of the country seeing notable annual increases in REOs, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.
“Foreclosure activity is still only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels … and isn’t likely to be back to 2019 numbers until sometime in mid-to-late 2024,” says Sharga.
The biggest reasons for this, Sharga explains, are the strength of the economy—we’re still seeing low unemployment and steady wage growth—along with excellent loan quality.
Massive home price growth in homeowner equity over the past few years has also helped reduce foreclosures.
Sharga says that some 80% of today’s homeowners have more than 20% equity in their property. So, while there may be more foreclosure starts in 2024—due in part to Covid-era mortgage relief programs phasing out—foreclosure auctions and lender repossessions should remain below 2019 levels.
When Will Be the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2024?
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.
Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.
“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”
Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.
“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”
Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Will declining mortgage rates cause home prices to rise?
Declining mortgage rates will likely incentivize would-be buyers anxious to own a home to jump into the market. Expect this increased demand amid today’s tight housing supply to put upward pressure on home prices.
What will happen if the housing market crashes?
Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.
Is it smart to buy real estate before a recession?
If you’re in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it won’t matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. However, if you are looking to buy real estate as a short-term investment, it will come with more risk if you buy at the height before a recession.
As we approach the mid-2020s, the question on many homeowners’ and potential buyers’ minds is: what will mortgage rates look like in 2025? It’s a crucial question, as even a small fluctuation in rates can significantly impact monthly payments and overall affordability.
Looking ahead, experts offer a range of predictions, reflecting the inherent uncertainty in economic forecasting. Factors such as inflation, economic growth, monetary policy, and global market conditions all play a role in shaping the future of mortgage rates.
A conservative estimate suggests that 30-year fixed mortgage rates could be in the range of 5.5% to 7% by 2025. This prediction takes into account potential economic growth, the Federal Reserve’s likely responses to changing conditions, and the broader real estate market’s status.
Other forecasts are slightly more optimistic, with projections of a gradual decrease in mortgage rates over the next 18 months. For instance, Fannie Mae anticipates rates might slide to 6.0%, Wells Fargo expects around 5.8%, and the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates rates could fall to 5.5% by the final quarter of 2025.
However, it’s important to note that these predictions come with a degree of uncertainty. The past few years have shown that unprecedented events, such as the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, can rapidly alter the economic landscape. As a result, forecasters often advise caution and suggest that these projections are best viewed as guidelines rather than guarantees.
The consensus among experts is that while rates are expected to peak soon due to high inflation and policy measures, they will likely remain above historical lows. This means that while we may not see the rock-bottom rates of the early 2020s, there is also little expectation of a return to the double-digit rates of the 1980s.
Will Mortgage Rates Decline in 2025?
According to recent analyses and expert predictions, there is a sense of cautious optimism about the potential for mortgage rates to trend downward in 2025. The Mortgage Bankers Association, for instance, has projected that 30-year mortgage rates could fall to around 5.6%. This forecast is based on current market trends and economic indicators, suggesting a silver lining for those hoping for more favorable borrowing conditions.
The current landscape of mortgage rates has been shaped by a variety of factors, including inflation, Federal Reserve policies, and global economic conditions. In the past, rates below 4% were considered competitive, with a historical low point of around 3.75% in 2020 serving as a benchmark for what constitutes a ‘good‘ rate. However, the economic turmoil and policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have led to fluctuations that defy simple predictions.
Looking ahead, the expectation of a downward trend is influenced by several factors. Economic recovery, inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy are all expected to play a role in shaping mortgage rates in the coming years. The Federal Reserve, in particular, is anticipated to continue its delicate balancing act, adjusting interest rates to maintain economic stability while fostering growth.
It’s important to note, however, that these predictions are not guaranteed. The financial landscape is complex and subject to change due to unforeseen global events and policy shifts. Therefore, while the projections provide a general direction, individuals should remain vigilant and consult with financial advisors to understand how these trends may affect their personal circumstances.
In summary, while there is hope for a decrease in mortgage rates by 2025, it is crucial for potential borrowers to stay informed and prepared for any outcome. By keeping an eye on economic developments and seeking professional advice, one can navigate the mortgage market with greater confidence and make decisions that align with their financial goals.
CHARLOTTE — Inflation continues to overwhelm many families in the Carolinas, keeping the cost high for things like borrowing money to buy a home, and while you might think that would mean a drop in home prices, realtors in the Charlotte area say they’re seeing the exact opposite.
In Charlotte’s hot housing market, prices haven’t really gone down. Channel 9′s Evan Donovan spoke with realtors who say it’s not like the COVID-19 pandemic, but they’re having to get creative with their buyers.
“She sent me tons of properties, locations, we went to visit them but then I just said let’s build a home,” said Ebony Covington.
She got in the market to buy a home in January, but even with the help of her realtor, she couldn’t find the right fit in an existing home.
“We went to the design center, I was able to pick out exactly what I wanted in my home, inside and outside. It was a celebration every step of the way, and I probably asked a million questions,” Covington told Donovan.
But realtor Bre Gaither says it’s still a seller’s market. The Charlotte are has less than two months of inventory, but a balanced market is around six months of inventory. Gaither says the market is almost as hot as it was during the pandemic.
“We are still seeing multiple offers, we are still seeing bidding wars,” Gaither said. “Homes are being on the market and off the market in less than 24 hours. It’s not as crazy as the $50-60,000 over asking, but I’ve seen $15 to 20 thousand, for sure.”
A report from Rocket Mortgage in March showed the average home price in Charlotte is up nearly $15,000 over last year. In surrounding areas like Matthews, Pineville, and Huntersville, it’s even higher.
Covington says she’s happy to finally own a home that’s exactly how she wanted it.
“The outside is going to be blue. Since [we’re the] first house on the cul-de-sac, we get to choose and no one else can have that home color,” Covington said.
Moving into a new home in 2024 costs a lot more than in the past. According to data from Redfin, the average monthly housing payment just hit an all-time high of more than $2,700. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Thursday is about 6.8%, more than double the rate before the pandemic.
(WATCH: City of Charlotte unveils potential affordable housing developments)
City of Charlotte unveils potential affordable housing developments
If you’re on the hunt for the right pattern to decorate the walls of your home, look no further than Just Wallpaper in Brookfield.
The wallpaper store’s new location at 9219 Broadway Ave. opened to customers Tuesday. Co-owners Julia Hamilton and Kate Sanderson staff the stop themselves Tuesdays through Saturdays, helping customers who walk in or book appointments browse through the thousands of patterns the store has available to personalize their homes and make their spaces feel lived in.
“Don’t decorate your house gray and white for the future owner. Why are you doing that?” Hamilton said. “You live there. Decorate it for you!”
Berwyn Shops, an incubator program for small businesses in Berwyn’s Roosevelt Road corridor, and realized how much demand there was for a walk-in wallpaper store.
“A week into getting our LLC, the person from the [Berwyn Development Corporation] was like, ‘Oh, hey, do you want to get involved in this?’ And the next thing you know, we donated wallpaper to all 12 of the shops, and we have a park bench with our logo on it,” Hamilton said. “Then, people were like, ‘Well, we want to come check the books.’”
While Hamilton said she hadn’t envisioned Just Wallpaper having a storefront, she and Sanderson converted a “little, tiny, tiny office space” in Berwyn — the entire building was smaller than the front room of the store’s current space, Hamilton said — into a shop in June 2022 so they could host customers. In January 2023, they had expanded the store’s hours, accepting walk-in customers two days a week. By September 2023, they were open four days a week for walk-ins.
“Most of what we found is that people were coming into the little shop, and they [were] like, ‘Oh my God, thank God I found you. I’ve been on the internet for three months, I’ve spent $100 on samples, and I still haven’t found the [right] wallpaper. Help me!’” Hamilton said. “That’s where it became, like, ‘OK, this is a shop, and we’ve got to find a real store, and this is real.’ We’re solving a little problem, but we’re solving it.”
When it came time for Just Wallpaper to find a new location, Hamilton said the business’s current space felt right as soon as she saw it. She said Brookfield, too, made sense for Just Wallpaper’s new home due to its proximity to Chicago and its central location among the western suburbs.
“One of the things we learned rather quickly is that our clients that were in the city had no problem coming to Berwyn or Brookfield,” Hamilton said. “It’s not that far. It’s no big deal.”
Since the original Just Wallpaper was in Orland Park, “We have a lot of south suburb clients and people that are willing to drive, and they’re not willing to drive into the city,” she said. “We knew our general client is, you know, from Oak Park to LaGrange … We didn’t want to venture far, and Brookfield ended up being the most perfect.”
Hamilton said wallpaper has had a “really big surge” in popularity since the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We’ve seen it in real estate, but in interior design, [there’s a trend of] just making your space more your own, making it more lived in, making it more personal, and wallpaper’s just like a really easy way to do that,” she said. “It can be a luxury product based on price point, but just like anything else, it can also have a core-basics price point as well.”
While Just Wallpaper is just starting out at its Brookfield location, Hamilton said she and Sanderson have their eyes on the future.
“Not on the immediate horizon, but long-term horizon, I would love — you know, assuming we are thriving in the space, and wallpaper is trending in the way it has been — I would love to open more locations and have it be a retailer for wallpaper,” Hamilton said. “That’s the big dream.”