Bonds sold off again today, but this time in several distinct waves. The first wave occurred instantly as trading opened in the overnight session. 10yr yields jumped immediately from 4.02 to 4.08 as investors reacted to Powell’s 60 Minutes interview (which reiterated that strong econ data means the Fed is in no hurry to cut). Stronger econ data in Europe pushed EU yields higher, kicking off the 2nd wave of selling and taking 10s to 4.12. Then in U.S. hours, a broadly stronger ISM Services PMI kicked off the 3rd wave, taking yields over 4.16% by the 3pm CME close. With that, bonds are basically back in line with January’s highs unless you ask shorter-term bonds (more influenced by Fed Funds Rate expectations) which are the highest since the Dec 13th Fed announcement.
09:18 AM
Sharply weaker overnight, with losses out of the gate and additional weakness in Europe. 10yr up 10bps at 4.119. MBS down almost half a point in 5.5s and just over a quarter point in 6.0 coupons.
10:35 AM
Additional losses after ISM data. MBS down over half a point. 10yr yield up 13.2bps at 4.154.
02:05 PM
Weakest levels just before 11:30am. Sideways since then. MBS down almost half a point in 5.5 coupons and 10 ticks (.31) in 6.0 coupons). 10yr up 13.8bps at 4.16%
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Job openings came in higher than expected this morning and immediately pushed bonds into weaker territory. Fortunately, it wasn’t that big of a beat and bonds bounced back gradually by the end of the day. That’s not to say all eyes were on data all day. If anything, month-end trading and positioning considerations ahead of tomorrow’s events are just as relevant. Those events include Treasury’s final quarterly refunding announcement in the AM and the Fed in the afternoon. While we always need to be ready for big moves after the Fed, it’s hard to imagine what this announcement could do to be anything other than predictable. The only wild card is a discussion on future changes to quantitative tightening in Powell’s press conference.
Case Shiller Home Prices (y/y)
5.4% vs 5.8% f’cast, 4.9% prev
FHFA Home Prices (y/y)
6.6% vs 6.3% prev
Job Openings (via JOLTS)
9.026m vs 8.750m f’cast, 8.925m prev
09:35 AM
Stronger in Asia. Weaker in Europe and now bouncing back. 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.05. MBS up 1 tick (.03).
10:13 AM
Some weakness after JOLTS. 10yr unchanged at 4.078. MBS down 2 ticks (.06).
12:19 PM
Decent recover off weakest levels. 10yr roughly unchanged at 4.074. MBS down 3 ticks (.09).
02:48 PM
Back into positive territory ahead of the 3pm CME close. 10yr yield down 1.8 bps at 4.06. MBS up 1 tick (.03).
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A newly renovated residence with a killer location and impeccable interiors has recently landed on the market in Miami Beach, sporting a hefty $18 million price tag.
But it has plenty of attributes to justify its premium pricing, including an exceptional location on a private peninsula that comes with unmatched panoramic views of the Atlantic Ocean from nearly every room of the house.
Nestled on the corner of the guard-gated community of Biscayne Point Island at 1137 North Biscayne Point Road, the property’s coveted location also offers convenient access to some of Miami’s most iconic spots.
Key numbers & facts
Location: 1137 North Biscayne Point Road, Miami Beach, FL
Bedrooms: 4
Bathrooms: 5
Square footage: 5,077
Year built: 1955 (extensively renovated in 2023)
Lot size: 0.29 acres
Amenities: Great Room with 25′ high ceilings, custom finishes imported from Europe, wine cellar, a primary suite with huge walk-in closets
Other structures: two boat docks, jet ski lift, summer kitchen in the backyard
Asking price: $18,000,000
Listing agent: Nancy Batchelor
The residence, following a comprehensive 4-year renovation completed in 2023, showcases elegant interiors designed by Deborah Wecselman.
A former Senior Director of International Store Design for Ralph Lauren, a role she’s held for 12 years, Wecselman played an instrumental role in designing over 5,000 flagship stores and shops globally.
Deborah Wecselman’s move to Miami marked a new chapter in her career, leading her to establish WECSELMAN DESIGN, a lauded interior design firm recognized both nationally and internationally for creating high-end, unique interiors.
And 1137 North Biscayne Point Road’s interiors are a testament to Wecselman’s distinct, elegant style, as we’re about to see.
The home features a Great Room with soaring 25-foot high ceilings and sliding doors that recess completely, blurring the lines between the indoor and outdoor spaces.
The entire home is designed to maximize the stunning ocean views, with each room offering a picturesque seascape.
High-quality custom finishes imported from Europe can be found throughout the home, along with gleaming wood floors and a state-of-the-art wine cellar.
The primary suite is a highlight, featuring expansive walk-in closets and a luxurious bath with a soaking tub and dual vanities.
True to its waterfront essence, the property’s backyard is an entertainer’s paradise.
Outdoor amenities include a pool, a summer kitchen for alfresco dining, a putting green, and not just one, but two boat docks. Additional amenities like a jet ski lift enhance the outdoor experience, making it perfect for both relaxation and hosting events.
Reflecting modern standards, the house is equipped with impact windows and doors, solar panels, and a carport complete with a Tesla charging station, underscoring the property’s commitment to sustainability without compromising on luxury.
The location on an ultra-private peninsula with 360′ of water frontage makes this property a haven for boating enthusiasts.
The two docks offer ample space for boats and provide exceptional wide bay sunset views, making it a rare find in the Miami real estate market.
>> Follow Fancy Pants Homes on MSN for more stories like this
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What’s Up With Stronger Bonds Despite Stronger GDP?
By:
Matthew Graham
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 3:27 PM
What’s Up With Stronger Bonds Despite Stronger GDP?
We’re not huge fans of the GDP report as a consistent market mover for bonds/rates, but if any GDP release has a chance, it’s the “advance” (which is the first of 3 releases for any given quarter). Today’s was quite a bit higher than the median forecast (3.3 vs 2.0). If the market were truly interested in reacting to the economic implications of that number, we likely would have seen yields move higher. Instead, bonds rallied. While there were other components of the report that were more bond friendly as well as other economic reports that were more downbeat, traders were at least as interested in the spillover from European trading as today’s ECB announcement was seen as more dovish than expected.
Jobless Claims
214k vs 200k f’cast, 189k prev
Durable Goods
0.0 vs 1.1 f’cast, 5.5 prev
Q4 GDP
3.3% vs 2.0 f’cast
GDP Deflator
1.5 vs 2.3 f’cast
08:43 AM
Modestly stronger after 8:30am econ data. 10yr down 4bps at 4.14%. MBS up about 1 tick (.03) after accounting for illiquidity.
11:06 AM
resilience remains with help from Europe. 10yr down 5.2bps at 4.128. MBS up 6 ticks (.19).
12:20 PM
Some weakness in Treasuries, but not spilling over to MBS. 10yr down 3.7bps at 4.143. MBS up 7 ticks (.23).
02:30 PM
Holding near best levels after decent 7yr auction. 10yr down 5.4 bps at 4.126. MBS up 7 ticks (.23).
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Today’s slate of economic data was/is the biggest of the week, by far. Results were mixed at 8:30am with higher jobless claims and weaker durable goods offset by a big beat in Q4 GDP (3.3 vs 2.0 f’cast). GDP itself was offset by its own price tracking data with the deflator dropping to a measly 1.5% versus a 2.3% forecast. The more consumer-focused PCE price index was 2.0% at the core level. Still, a big beat on the first reading of Q4 GDP is worth some concern about a bad bond market reaction. Thankfully, there wasn’t more than a few moments of weakness before bonds rallied into moderately stronger territory. Claims and price data are likely helping, but a European bond rally may be helping even more.
(NOTE: in the chart above, German 10yr yields are on a floating/overlaid axis… This morning’s drop was roughly 2.36% to 2.28%)
The bond market (which dictates interest rates) hasn’t had too many Mondays so far in January due to the holiday calendar. Today’s example might have been confused for another holiday based on trading volume and volatility. It was the lightest volume day of the year so far and the calmest in terms of volatility.
Fortunately, the overnight market movement in Asia and Europe started things off on a solid note. This allowed the average mortgage lender to drop rates slightly from Friday’s levels which, at the time, were the highest in more than a month. Today’s average rates are the lowest since last Tuesday, but because the recent range has been narrow, they’re not too terribly different from any other day since then.
Bigger changes become a bigger risk toward the end of the week, but especially by the middle of the following week where we’ll get the next Fed announcement and several important economic reports.
If you fly enough, experiencing a flight delay is practically inevitable. Between weather issues, maintenance delays and air traffic control staffing issues, all airlines are bound to face delays.
Alaska Airlines has recently been the best U.S. airline at minimizing delays, reporting the highest rate of on-time flights through June 2023. Still, nearly one in five Alaska flights have pushed back departure times for one reason or another.
In these situations, what kind of flight delay compensation are passengers entitled to? Here’s a recap of Alaska’s compensation policies for you.
6 things to know about Alaska flight delay compensation
1. You’re more likely to get flight delay compensation on Alaska than any other U.S. airline
At least on paper, Alaska treats its delayed passengers relatively well. According to data from the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Alaska Airlines commits to providing compensation for the most aspects of a controllable flight delay: seven out of eight factors. The next-best airline is JetBlue Airways with six of the eight commitments. American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines tie for third place with five of the eight commitments.
2. Alaska Airlines doesn’t guarantee cash compensation for delays
The only of the eight factors that Alaska does not commit to provide is the one travelers would probably like to see most: Cash compensation for delays more than three hours past the scheduled departure time.
Unfortunately, no additional cash compensation is required by Alaska policies or current DOT regulations (though they are required in Europe). At best, you may be able to get a full refund of the price that you paid for your flight — as long as your delay is eligible. And unfortunately, Alaska doesn’t define how long of a flight delay is required to get a refund.
3. Alaska Airlines offers bonus miles or a discount code for lengthy delays
Although it doesn’t offer cash compensation for delays, Alaska Airlines offers two compensation options in the case of flight delays over three hours — with the exact compensation depending on the length of the delay:
A discount code of at least $50 for future travel.
Discount codes are valid for one year from the date of issuance toward a future Alaska flight. Alaska miles don’t expire, although your account may be deactivated for lack of activity.
🤓Nerdy Tip
NerdWallet values Alaska miles at 1.4 cents per mile. Unless you don’t have any plans to take an Alaska flight in the next year, we recommend opting for a $50 voucher instead of 2,000 miles. At NerdWallet valuations, 2,000 miles are only worth $28.
It’s worth noting that Alaska Airlines is the only U.S. airline that commits to providing frequent flyer miles in case of a delay. JetBlue is the only other U.S. airline that offers a travel voucher for delays of three hours or more. Other U.S. airlines may provide bonus miles or a voucher to certain travelers after certain delays, but it isn’t part of their stated policy.
4. Claim a free meal or overnight accommodation on certain delays
In addition to providing miles or a travel voucher, Alaska Airlines also pledges to provide food and lodging during a delay of three or more hours. First, passengers waiting out the delay at the airport will get a “reasonable meal” — although that’s not further defined.
Plus, travelers needing to wait out an overnight delay will receive complimentary hotel accommodations, as long as they are at an airport more than 100 miles from their home. Alaska Airlines agrees to cover both the hotel and round-trip ground transportation to and from the hotel.
5. Only certain Alaska flight delays are eligible for compensation
There’s a big asterisk to all that we’ve covered so far: Alaska Airlines only compensates travelers, provides meals and covers overnight accommodation for eligible delays. Alaska Airlines won’t provide any compensation or amenities if your delay is due to:
Air traffic control.
Weather situations.
Passenger’s illness.
Other extraordinary circumstances beyond the airline’s control that occur at cities within your intended flight routing.
In these cases, you’ll need to rely on trip delay insurance — if you have it — to cover your meal and lodging costs. For example, if you booked your flight with the Chase Sapphire Reserve® and your flight is delayed more than six hours or overnight, you’ll get up to $500 per passenger in reimbursements for expenses like meals and lodging.
6. Know all of your options during a flight delay
Even if you aren’t due Alaska flight delay compensation, you should know you have options during a delay. If your flight is canceled or significantly delayed, gate agents will likely want to rebook you on a later Alaska Airlines flight. However, the airline’s stated policy is to rebook you on partner airlines at no additional cost when there’s a significant delay.
Check your options using a flight search tool like Google Flights. Note that Alaska Airlines is part of the Oneworld Alliance along with American Airlines, so American will be a top option. In addition, the airline has struck partnerships with other carriers on which it may rebook you. Alaska flyers have reported being rebooked on American, Delta and United in the case of past delays — although these partnerships can change at any time.
Alaska flight delay compensation recapped
Alaska Airlines offers more to passengers than other U.S. airlines when it comes to delay compensation. In addition to standard provisions — such as meals and overnight lodging — the airline also offers bonus miles or a travel voucher when eligible delays stretch beyond three hours. Plus, Alaska also partners with several competitor airlines to help get travelers where they need to go.
However, all of these types of compensation require that you’re on an eligible delay. If your flight is delayed or canceled due to weather, air traffic control or another element deemed outside of the airline’s control, you’ll need to rely on travel insurance or credit card travel protections to cover these expenses.
How to maximize your rewards
You want a travel credit card that prioritizes what’s important to you. Here are our picks for the best travel credit cards of 2024, including those best for:
2023 was a turbulent year for airline elite status. A few major airlines announced significant loyalty program changes — many of which went into effect on Jan. 1, 2024. In most cases, it’s made a more challenging path with higher spending requirements to earn airline elite status.
Some of the most notable and drastic shifts happened to the Delta Air Lines SkyMiles loyalty program. In September, the airline announced it would award Medallion elite status solely based on spending and limit Delta Sky Club access for many customers starting in 2024. The updates were so drastic that Delta walked back some of its most controversial changes, including reducing the spending requirement to earn status.
Other airlines have made minor loyalty program modifications:
Frontier Airlines overhauled its loyalty program to align status earning with dollar spending rather than based on physical miles flown. This kicked in with the new year.
Southwest Airlines made it easier to earn elite status in 2024 by reducing the number of flights needed to earn status.
As of March 2024, Alaska Airlines will simplify partner redemptions based on distance and cabin. According to Alaska Airlines, more than 60% of partner nonstop routes will start at a lower price point (but that implies others will become more expensive).
American Airlines made some changes in 2024, including adding new earning and redemption opportunities. It’ll also soon offer one-day lounge passes for sale.
Which airline program provides the most value?
NerdWallet’s analysis focuses on elite status perks that offer concrete value, such as bonus rewards, seat upgrades and free checked bags. We compared these values against the spending needed to earn each status level. That indicates which elite programs truly offer excellent value per dollar spent.
To generate a single number to compare loyalty programs, we calculate an “effective rewards rate,” which accounts for the value of the benefits you receive relative to the amount you already spent with the airline.
There’s variation across airline loyalty programs, but the average return across all programs is 6.28% in value per dollar spent, meaning you’d get an average of a little over $6 per $100 spent.
Alaska’s rewards program stands out at the top end with its 9.7% rate — the equivalent of earning nearly $10 in value for every $100 spent. Hawaiian Airlines, which in December announced plans to merge with Alaska, isn’t far behind with an 8.89% earning rate.
Frontier and Spirit Airlines trail far behind with paltry 3.92% and 3.45% rewards rates, respectively.
Understand what status is worth
Some programs slap labels like “Gold” and “Platinum” on benefits that hardly sparkle, so be skeptical of chasing titles that sound fancy but ultimately offer mediocre benefits.
A-List Preferred is the highest level of status with Southwest, but its value is low, with no option for premium class seats or airport lounges. You’d have to spend an estimated $14,400 to earn A-List Preferred (though you could get it for less if you fly a lot of low-cost flight segments), yet NerdWallet values its benefits at less than $1,400. Don’t try too hard to chase Southwest status.
Meanwhile, the top tiers at Alaska, Hawaiian, United Airlines and American Airlines mean something. With Alaska MVP Gold 100K, you’ll receive nearly $9,000 in value with the first-class upgrades, free checked bags and lounge passes. Earning it requires an estimated $12,000 in Alaska spending, translating to a roughly 73% rewards rate.
Earning United Premier 1K status is neither cheap nor easy, as you’ll have to spend an estimated $30,000 with United for the honor. But NerdWallet values the benefits (which include instant premium cabin upgrades and priority check-in) at nearly $19,000, offering a 64% return.
Look for promotions
You can sometimes find limited-time promotions with easier routes to earning elite status. For example, United MileagePlus is currently running a Premier Status Match Challenge through the end of 2024.
Leverage airline credit cards
If you’re chasing elite status for benefits like free checked bags, Wi-Fi or early boarding, many airline credit cards offer those perks without awarding you elite status.
How to approach airline elite status in 2024
As more airlines tie elite status to spending, it can feel like the value of your loyalty has taken a nosedive, especially if you previously earned status through low-cost flights. On the other hand, some high rollers are rejoicing. After all, a higher threshold to earn status only makes it more valuable for folks who have it through reduced competition for seat upgrades or fewer people overcrowding airport lounges.
However, having elite status is only part of the reason to pick which airline to fly. Sometimes elite status can be more limiting than freeing, as you might be more inclined to fly at an inconvenient time or book a more expensive flight just to flex your benefits.
By leveraging credit card bonuses, seeking targeted promotions and being open-minded to the best flight rather than one operated by the brand you have status with, you can maximize the value of your travel.
Not to mention, airfares have dropped over the past year despite inflation affecting most other sectors. Some experts expect airfares to continue dropping. According to American Express Global Business Travel’s 2024 Air Monitor report, economy class flights from North America to Europe are expected to drop by 3.5% versus their 2023 prices, while those to Asia are expected to drop by 7.5%.
For price-conscious consumers, that might be a better trade anyway.
How to maximize your rewards
You want a travel credit card that prioritizes what’s important to you. Here are our picks for the best travel credit cards of 2024, including those best for:
Thursday’s trading session provided an unpleasant but worthwhile reminder that “data dependence” cuts both ways in terms of its impact on the bond market. Yesterday’s session saw weaker data help rates avoid a break above 4% while today’s data arguably did the opposite. None of the above was a very big deal in the bigger picture, but Friday’s jobs report certainly has the power to change the tone if it falls far enough from forecast.
ADP Employment
164k vs 115k f’cast, 101k prev
Jobless Claims
202k vs 216k f’cast, 220k prev
08:34 AM
Weaker overnight, led by Europe. More selling after data. 10yr up 7bps at 3.989. MBS down 10 ticks (.31).
12:20 PM
Slightly choppy, but mostly sideways all morning. MBS down 9 ticks (.28). 10yr up 7.3bps at 3.993.
02:19 PM
MBS are now down to the weakest levels of the day with 5.5 coupons down 3/8ths in total. 10yr yields are near their highs, up 8.1bps at 4.001.
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Wednesday’s data was helpful for the bond market–even if only modestly. Today’s is the opposite. The weakness began in Europe with a swath of PMI reports that were in line with expectations or better. It has continued in the domestic hours with Jobless Claims and ADP both beating expectations handily. Trading levels aren’t any worse than they were yesterday morning, but it’s a reminder that data dependence goes both ways (and a warning that Friday’s jobs report reaction could go big in either direction).