Welcoming a new addition to the family is an exciting and joyous occasion, and preparing a nursery is often one of the most anticipated tasks for expectant parents. The nursery is not just a room; it’s a sanctuary where your little one will spend countless hours sleeping, playing, and growing during their formative years. Curating the perfect nursery involves thoughtful consideration of both functionality and aesthetics. Check out these nursery decor ideas from experts to see curated recommendations.
Nursery decor: Tips and tricks to test out
“A nursery should spark calm,” Taylor Clarke, mom and founder of Amborella Organics seed-bearing lollipops. “We do this with earth-toned colors, living plants, and objects like a star-shaped plush that remind us how magical this time of life is.” As we dive into other expert opinions on curating the perfect nursery, Clarke reminds us to not forget the magic of this stage of life.
Establish your vision
Before diving into decorating, take some time to envision the atmosphere you want to create. Consider themes, color schemes, and overall ambiance. When it comes to a theme or color palette, Bowy Lou recommends choosing something that resonates with you. “Whether it’s a nature-inspired theme, a classic color scheme, or a whimsical motif, this will guide your choices in furniture, decorations, and textiles,” the Bowy Lou team recommends. “Additionally, if you’re looking to save money, you might be able to keep an eye out on online reselling platforms such as Facebook Marketplace or thrift shops to begin gathering or collecting items that meet your aesthetic.”
Choose a calming color palette and utilize natural materials
Selecting the right color palette sets the tone for the entire room. “Opt for soft, neutral hues like pastel blues, greens, creams, light grays, or gentle yellows to create a calming atmosphere conducive to relaxation, sleep, and independent play,” Karri Bowen-Poole, founder and CEO of Smart Playrooms and Project Playroom recommends.
Ashley Morrisey with Western Sky Photography recommends considering your preferences when selecting a color palette. “You may have heard there are colors that make a room bright or enhance specific feelings, so it would make sense to choose those that add to the calm, soothing environment you want,” Morrisey begins, “but, it’s equally as true that choosing colors you love will help make the room a space you’ll enjoy spending lots of time in with your baby, and let’s be honest, you’ve got a lot of future diaper changes, feedings, play times, and bedtimes in this room.”
Embrace nature-inspired elements as well, to bring an element of texture to the room. “Incorporating furniture and decor made from natural materials like wood and cotton will evoke a sense of warmth and comfort while also minimizing exposure to harsh chemicals,” Bowen-Poole suggests. Consider adding potted plants or a small indoor garden to purify the air and further create a calming, nature-inspired environment.
Frankie Wallace, owner of LoveFrankieArt.com, echoes the importance of a balance between colors and natural elements. “Opt for soft, neutral colors such as taupe or soft grey, and choose patterns that are subtle and gentle, like small polka dots, stripes, or delicate floral prints. These create a serene atmosphere without overwhelming your baby’s delicate senses, and are also calming for parents too,” Wallace notes. “Nature-inspired accents like potted plants, botanical prints, or nature-themed wall decals are also great to incorporate. Nature has a calming effect and can help create a peaceful atmosphere in the nursery.”
Invest in quality furniture
Key furniture pieces like a crib, changing table, and storage units are essential for a functional nursery. “Incorporating vintage or heirloom pieces such as a solid wood dresser passed down from a relative, or one with a marble top discovered at an antique shop will have lasting design power over many store-bought dressers,” Darcy Oliver, founder of Darcy Oliver Design recommends. “The dresser can also act as a changing station for your baby, so be mindful of a size that could accommodate a changing pad.”
Convertible furniture, such as cribs that transform into toddler beds, offers long-term value and versatility. “Searching for the perfect crib may seem like a daunting task, but I recommend buying this item new or fairly new for safety reasons,” Oliver recommends.
Prioritize safety
Safety should be a top priority when designing a nursery. Ensure that furniture meets safety standards, anchor heavy items to the wall to prevent tipping, and eliminate any potential hazards such as loose cords or small objects that could pose a choking risk.
A comfortable crib mattress and soft, breathable bedding are essential for promoting safe and restful sleep. Choose bedding made from organic materials and avoid heavy blankets or pillows, as they can increase the risk of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS).
Add personal touches
Infuse the nursery with personal touches that reflect your style and values, like name-centric decor. Name decor is also an easy way to make the room feel personalized. “Monogramming the space above your baby’s bed is a popular design concept. The monogram makes their room even more personalized and their own,” Sara from Lizz and Roo notes. “Similar to a monogram, framing their name above their bed is a great personalization to have for them to make their room their own.”
“I remember when my son was about to be born – all of a sudden I wanted to clean and organize my house and create the perfect nursery. I posted this random information on Facebook, and immediately a consensus was formed: I was “nesting,” Crystal Waddell, president of Collage and Wood shares.
“Over the years, as my company has grown, we serve mothers all over the world who want to personalize the walls for their new baby. And when I say I get it, you now know, I totally get it. Think custom lettering, themed wooden cutouts, or your baby’s name in a giant script font, these items create that perfect personalized space for your baby and help you meet your nesting needs.”
Consider sensory stimulation
Stimulate your baby’s senses with visually engaging elements like mobiles, wall decals, and textured rugs. Soft lighting, such as dimmable lamps or string lights, creates a cozy atmosphere conducive to relaxation.
Leave room to grow
Remember that your baby will grow quickly, and their needs will evolve over time. “If the nursery will eventually morph into your child’s room, having the flexibility to change the room into the next stage is key,” Sandra Gordon, owner of Baby Products Mom, notes. “That next stage could be in a year or so when your baby-turned-toddler-turned-preschooler starts to have an opinion. Ideally, for a convertible nursery, you should be able to lift anything babyish, such as artwork, out of the room. In other words, keep babyish items off permanent surfaces, such as pink or blue walls or carpets. But if the room will be a dedicated nursery for years to come (for your next babies), go ahead and baby-ify all you want.”
Fariha Nasir, with Pennies for a Fortune, echoes the sentiment of keeping the future in mind. “Focus on sourcing high-quality pieces that will grow with the child. Same with seating – furniture that’s marketed as nursery furniture like rockers and gliders isn’t always great quality. Getting a stylish yet comfortable armchair with a separate ottoman will provide the same comfort and functionality,” Nasir shares. “That nursing chair can later be part of a reading corner for the room in the future.”
Incorporate functionality into your nursery decor
Babies come with a lot of stuff, from diapers and clothes to toys and books. Maximize storage space with bins, baskets, shelves, and closets to keep essentials organized and easily accessible. “In small spaces, floor space is a precious commodity so get things off the floor wherever you can,” Lisa Janvrin, with Janvrin and Co, suggests. “This means installing storage and lighting on the walls. There are tons of options for floating bookshelves, side tables, and plug-in wall sconces that are adorable and functional.”
In terms of nap and nighttime routines, nightlights or dimmers can also help create a soothing atmosphere when darkness is important, Kristeen Waddell notes. “Lack of lighting is everything. Invest in blackout curtains to regulate light and promote better sleep, especially during daytime naps. However, you will want a nice overhead light for play, too,” Waddell shares.
Choose soft flooring options
Opt for soft flooring materials like carpet or area rugs to provide a comfortable and safe surface for your baby to crawl and play. “A soft rug is a must-have for tummy time and a cozy place for baby to explore the world,” Caitlin De Lay notes. “Functional pieces will grow with your child and create a calming space to bring the baby home; plus, they can all double as design accents.” Choose rugs with low pile or natural fibers that are easy to clean and hypoallergenic to minimize the risk of allergies.
Design a nursing nook
“There needs to be comfortable seating for nursing a baby, with a footstool,” Medina King, creative director of MK Kids Interiors says. “This could be in the form of a stylish rocker or a comfortable armchair with a pouffe. Parents will spend a lot of time nursing and comforting babies in the early days of their lives, so it’s important to design it around the needs and comfort of the family and parents taking care of the baby.”
Lucy Bowman, with LucyJoHome.com, agrees, noting the importance of paying the nursery proper attention. “Nurseries are a place of rest and sweet memories and deserve attention,” Bowman shares. “The perfect nursery will have a comfortable and beautiful chair for parent and child to bond.”
Don’t be afraid to get creative with nursery decor ideas
Photographer, Kristal Bean, recommends adding an accent wall for a creative touch. “You’re not limited to just a different color for an accent wall — there are endless gorgeous wallpaper and large wall decal options, too,” Bean shares. “This is a simple way to customize the nursery, and you can probably get it done over a weekend. If you’ve already fallen in love with the wall color in your baby’s room, but you’re dying to add a little something extra to the space, wallpaper on the ceiling is an unforgettable touch.”
Savanna Nave, owner of SavannaBrooke.com, reminds to not forget flair and interest. “Add interest and character by either using wallpaper, a wall treatment (board & batten), patterned curtains, or a statement rug. All of these areas are a great way to incorporate color and a fun pattern,” Nave suggests. “When adding flair, stick to your style while also making the room baby-friendly and functional. If your style is boho, incorporate some of those features into the room.”
Consider soundproofing as part of your nursery decor
Minimize disruptions and create a peaceful environment for both you and your baby by soundproofing the nursery. Install heavy curtains or sound-absorbing panels to dampen outside noise, and consider using a white noise machine to mask any sudden sounds that could disturb your baby’s sleep.
Crafting a sanctuary for you and your little one
“As the parent, you will be spending a lot of time in that room with your baby”, Nina Spears, co-founder and editor-in-chief of baby chick, explains. “In the nursery, there needs to be a designated space for the baby to sleep, to feed, and to be changed. But, make a space in the room where you can rest with the baby and enjoy, too. This room should be a space that you love, it brings you joy and makes you feel calm. Your baby won’t care what it looks like, so make it functional and comfortable for you too.”
Curating and creating the perfect nursery is a labor of love that involves careful planning, creativity, and attention to detail. By following these guidelines and infusing your unique style and personality into the design, you can create a serene sanctuary where your little one can thrive and flourish. After all, there’s nothing more rewarding than seeing your baby surrounded by a space that is as beautiful and nurturing as they are.
It’s a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement. At face value the headlines make a better case for lower rates with GDP at 1.6 vs 2.5, wholesale inventories missing big and Jobless Claims not too far from forecast. But the devil is in the details–specifically, the details inside the quarterly GDP data. GDP will be reported 3 times for Q1. Today was the first of those and as such, the PCE price data component offers a bit of a sneak peek at tomorrow’s PCE inflation data.
GDP is not a hugely important report, but PCE inflation is. With all that in mind, the PCE component in today’s data was 3.7 vs 3.4. In a world where a 0.1 beat/miss can cause massive volatility for the bond market, that’s a huge beat. Bonds will likely be feeling extra defensive until and unless tomorrow’s Core PCE number tells a slightly less dramatic story.
Stocks haven’t loved the data either, due to the implications for the Fed’s rate outlook. The following isn’t the pattern normally associated with stocks and bonds, but it is prevalent at times when the market is actively refining its outlook for the Fed Funds Rate.
In the slightly bigger picture, this morning’s weakness constitutes the first significant break above the 4.65 level and it breathes a bit more life into the uptrend that had dominated the month of April (the one that looked to be defeated by the 4.65 ceiling.
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Prospective homebuyers are facing higher costs to finance a home with the average long-term U.S. mortgage rate moving above 7% this week to its highest level in nearly five months.
The average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to 7.1% from 6.88% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.39%.
When mortgage rates rise, they can add hundreds of dollars a month in costs for borrowers, limiting how much they can afford at a time when the U.S. housing market remains constrained by relatively few homes for sale and rising home prices.
“As rates trend higher, potential homebuyers are deciding whether to buy before rates rise even more or hold off in hopes of decreases later in the year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Last week, purchase applications rose modestly, but it remains unclear how many homebuyers can withstand increasing rates in the future.”
AP business correspondent Alex Veiga reports mortgage rates reaching their highest level in months.
After climbing to a 23-year high of 7.79% in October, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage had remained below 7% since early December amid expectations that inflation would ease enough this year for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting its short-term interest rate.
Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, including how the bond market reacts to the Fed’s interest rate policy and the moves in the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.
But home loan rates have been mostly drifting higher in recent weeks as stronger-than-expected reports on employment and inflation have stoked doubts over how soon the Fed might decide to start lowering its benchmark interest rate. The uncertainty has pushed up bond yields.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to around 4.66% on Tuesday — its highest level since early November — after top officials at the Federal Reserve suggested the central bank may hold its main interest steady for a while. The Fed wants to get more confidence that inflation is sustainably heading toward its target of 2%.
The yield was at 4.64% at midday Thursday after new data on applications for unemployment benefits and a report showing manufacturing growth in the mid-Atlantic region pointed to a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy.
“With no cuts to the federal funds rate imminent and with the economy still strong, there is no reason to see downward pressure on mortgage rates right now,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. “It seems increasingly likely that mortgage rates are not going to come down any time soon.”
Sturtevant said it’s likely the average rate on a 30-year mortgage will hold close to 7% throughout the spring before easing to the mid-to-high 6% range into the summer.
Other economists also expect that mortgage rates will ease moderately later this year, with forecasts generally calling for the average rate to remain above 6%.
Mortgage rates have now risen three weeks in a row, a setback for home shoppers this spring homebuying season, traditionally the housing market’s busiest time of the year.
Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell last month as home shoppers contended with elevated mortgage rates and rising prices.
While easing mortgage rates helped push home sales higher in January and February, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage remains well above 5.1%, where was just two years ago.
That large gap between rates now and then has helped limit the number of previously occupied homes on the market because many homeowners who bought or refinanced more than two years ago are reluctant to sell and give up their fixed-rate mortgages below 3% or 4%.
Meanwhile, the cost of refinancing a home loan also got pricier this week. Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, often used to refinance longer-term mortgages, rose this week, pushing the average rate to 6.39% from 6.16% last week. A year ago it averaged 5.76%, Freddie Mac said.
Were the good old days really all that good? Sure, when mortgage rates were below 3%, it was a lot cheaper to purchase a house, but we were also in the middle of a global pandemic.
At the start of 2021, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 2.65%, according to data from Freddie Mac. During the homebuying boom of 2020 and 2021, the number of borrowers taking out new mortgages reached a more than two-decade high.
Over the past two years, a combination of high mortgage rates, low housing inventory and sluggish wage growth has crippled affordability for homebuyers.
While many are holding out for mortgage rates to fall, it’s unlikely we’ll see 2% mortgage rates any time soon. In fact, experts hope we don’t.
A return to that kind of low-rate environment would indicate major problems in the economy, said Alex Thomas, senior research analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting.
Mortgage rates typically fall during a recession. But a recession also comes with widespread unemployment, increased debt, investment losses and overall financial instability.
In today’s housing market, homebuyers should have realistic expectations. Experts predict mortgage rates to inch closer to 6% by the end of the year as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates. Record-low mortgage rates aren’t in the cards again, and that’s likely for the best.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
How did mortgage rates drop below 3% in the first place?
Economic uncertainty and market volatility — whether during an election cycle or a pandemic — impact the direction of mortgage rates. It’s often said that bad news for the economy is good news for mortgage rates, and vice versa.
A significant lever for mortgage rates is the federal funds rate, which the Fed keeps low when it needs to stimulate economic growth. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed slashed that benchmark rate to zero to bolster the economy. When there were signs of recovery in 2015, the central bank started raising interest rates again, sending mortgage rates into the 4% to 5% range until 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic sparked another economic crisis. To incentivize people to borrow and spend money — and avoid a prolonged recession — the Fed once again cut the federal funds rate to near zero and pumped money into the economy by purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage interest rates fell quickly, bottoming out in the mid-2% range in 2021.
But the combination of supply shocks, record-low rates and an extreme increase in money supply from government stimulus helped send prices way up, according to Erin Sykes, chief economist at NestSeekers International.
In early 2022, the Fed had a new problem on its hands: inflation.
💰 Federal Reserve monetary policy
In a recession, the Federal Reserve tries to spur economic growth through quantitative easing, a monetary policy that consists of cutting the federal funds rate to encourage lending and borrowing to consumers, and increasing its purchase of government-backed bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
If the Fed needs to slow the economy down and reduce the money supply in financial markets, it does opposite: quantitative tightening. By increasing the federal funds rate and tapering its bond-buying programs, the central bank raises the cost of borrowing money, which puts upward pressure on longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates.
What caused mortgage rates to surge again?
With prices surging in 2022, the Fed’s main tool was to adjust interest rates, making credit more expensive and disincentivizing borrowing. As a result of a string of aggressive rate hikes, the federal funds rate went from near zero to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, where it’s remained since last summer. Average mortgage rates skyrocketed, peaking past 8% last October.
Although inflation has gone down, the Fed isn’t ready to start lowering rates just yet. The central bank would like to see evidence of a weaker economy (including consistently lower inflation and higher unemployment) before making any adjustments to its monetary policy.
📈 How the Fed impacts mortgage rates
Though the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it controls the federal funds rate, a short-term interest rate that determines what banks charge each other to borrow money. When the federal funds rate moves up, it impacts longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates, as banks raise interest rates on home loans to keep their profit margins intact.
Why won’t mortgage rates move toward 2% again?
Economists and housing market experts agree that mortgage rates will fall over the next several years, but not below 3%.
When mortgage rates hit their record lows just a few years ago, the federal funds rate was near zero. As the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, the plan is to do so slowly and incrementally. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects the federal funds rate will take only modest adjustments down.
In the most recent policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that the federal funds rate “will not go back down to the very low levels that we saw” during the financial crisis, suggesting that the economy can adapt to a more “neutral” benchmark rate range of between 2.4% to 3.8% in the long run, i.e., less tightening, but not too much easing from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%.
The Fed would be forced to lower rates close to zero only if there were a dramatic economic shock, such as a pandemic or recession, said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. In that case, if the central bank started purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities again, there’s a possibility mortgage rates could return to those record lows.
However, without such an upheaval, there’s a floor under how low mortgage rates will go, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll ever drop to their 2020-2021 levels.
“With the Federal Reserve ending quantitative easing and stepping out of the market for mortgage-backed securities, rates will settle at a much higher level,” said Matthew Walsh, housing economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Moody’s Analytics predicts mortgage rates will stabilize between 6% and 6.5% over the next few years. That’s high compared with the recent past, yet it’s a historically normal range for mortgage rates.
How can homebuyers adapt to higher mortgage rates?
The housing market is frustrating, but prospective homebuyers are starting to come to terms with this new reality. Following the pandemic, people are moving on with their lives, whether that’s building a family, relocating, downsizing or upgrading.
For some households, that means making room in their budget for a monthly mortgage payment at a 6% or 7% rate.
When you monitor mortgage rate movement, you’re usually looking at national averages determined by weekly rate information provided by lenders. While those rates give a picture of the “typical” mortgage rate, that’s not necessarily the rate you’ll get when applying for a mortgage.
It’s possible to get a better deal on your mortgage.
To qualify for a mortgage, most lenders require you to have a minimum credit score of 620, but lenders offer the lowest mortgage rates to consumers with excellent credit scores, around 740 and above.
You might also consider purchasing mortgage points, also known as discount points. This is an extra fee you pay upfront in exchange for a lower interest rate. Each mortgage point typically costs 1% of the purchase price of a home and will lower your mortgage rate by 0.25%.
A shorter-term loan like a 15-year or 10-year mortgage will have a lower interest rate than a 30-year fixed mortgage. Your monthly payments will be higher with a shorter-term loan because you’re paying the loan off in less time, but you’ll save big on interest.
Buying a home is likely the biggest transaction you’ll make in your lifetime. Regardless of the market, carefully assess your needs and what you can afford.
Two former New Jersey-based mortgage loan originators have been charged with conspiracy to commit bank fraud by the U.S. Attorney’s Office, District of New Jersey according to an announcement by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and U.S. Attorney Philip Sellinger.
Christopher Gallo has been recognized as a top-producing loan originator, at one point being named Scotsman Guide‘s fourth-ranked LO in America. Gallo previously shared perspectives with HousingWire on his business strategy for 2023 after enduring challenges in 2022. At the time, Gallo was employed by NJ Lenders Corp, which primarily operates in New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania.
Alongside Gallo, Mehmet Elmas was also named in the complaint, filed by a special agent working under the Office of the Inspector General (OIG) at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). The complaint says that Gallo and Elmas were employed by the same company at the time of the alleged offense, with Elmas working as Gallo’s assistant.
Gallo and Elmas have each been released on a $200,000 bond after appearing before a magistrate judge in Newark federal court, the DOJ said.
“From 2018 through October 2023, Gallo and Elmas used their positions to conspire and engage in a fraudulent scheme to falsify loan origination documents sent to mortgage lenders in New Jersey and elsewhere, including their former employer, to fraudulently obtain mortgage loans,” the DOJ alleges.
The pair allegedly “routinely mislead mortgage lenders about the intended use of properties to fraudulently secure lower mortgage interest rates,” adding they “often submitted loan applications falsely stating that the listed borrowers were the primary residents of certain proprieties when, in fact, those properties were intended to be used as rental or investment properties,” the complaint alleges.
The alleged scheme misled lenders about the “true intended use of the properties,” and “Gallo and Elmas secured and profited from mortgage loans that were approved at lower interest rates,” the DOJ claimed.
The alleged conspiracy also included falsifying property records, including “building safety and financial information of prospective borrowers to facilitate mortgage loan approval,” the DOJ alleged.
In a statement, NJ Lenders Corp told HousingWire that it is cooperating with law enforcement as the investigation progresses.
“NJ Lenders is proud of its 33 years of successfully assisting homeowners with integrity and professionalism. We are fully cooperating with law enforcement and the ongoing investigation of two former employees,” said Mark Tabakin, an attorney for NJ Lenders.
“The actions of these former employees appear to have been coordinated to benefit them financially while taking advantage of the reputation and trust of the firm,” he continued. “NJ Lenders’ work will continue uninterrupted as we provide the highest level of service to our clients.”
Gallo originated more than $1.4 billion in loans between 2018 and October 2023, according to the DOJ. When listed as the fourth top-producing LO in 2022 by Scotsman Guide, the publication placed his total volume at $1.175 billion for that year alone. One-third of his loans were purchases, with the remainder being refinances.
“The conspiracy to commit bank fraud charge carries a maximum potential penalty of 30 years in prison and a $1 million fine, or twice the gross gain or loss from the offense, whichever is greatest,” DOJ said.
Gallo joined CrossCountry Mortgage in October 2023, according to NMLS licensing information. His webpage at CCM was taken down on Wednesday, and a spokesperson for the Cleveland-based retail lender did not immediately return a request for comment.
This story has been updated with a statement from NJ Lenders Corp.
Is it any surprise to see a strong reaction to economic data when the phrase “data dependent” has come to unequivocally rule all other approaches to understanding the interest rate outlook? Yes, actually, it can sometimes still be a surprise because data dependency depends on the data being depended upon. In today’s case, we have a report that has been inconsequential more often than not over the past decade, but increasingly relevant in the last 2 years. There could be some debate as to whether that’s due to the gradual increase of acceptance for S&P’s PMI data in a country where ISM has long been the dominant source of PMI data or whether it’s simply due to the bond market’s strong desire for econ data. Either way, it’s a market mover today.
The reaction is so blatantly obvious that it begs the question as to how the underlaying data justifies the move. After all, there wasn’t a huge departure in Indices themselves. We’ll focus on the services side of the economy here, just to keep the chart simple, but the takeaway from Manufacturing is no different.
Broader context is helpful. Today’s move in yields is well within the weekly range and not-at-all meaningful in the bigger picture. In other words, it becomes less impressive the more we zoom out.
Average mortgage rates inched lower yesterday. But all that did was wipe out last Friday’s similarly tiny rise.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might barely budge. However, these early mini-trends often alter direction or speed as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.302%
7.353%
+0.01
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.757%
6.836%
+0.01
30-year fixed FHA
7.064%
7.111%
-0.07
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.888%
8.036%
+0.12
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.199%
7.257%
+0.05
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.663%
6.737%
+0.06
30-year fixed VA
7.292%
7.332%
+0.01
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
This morning’s Financial Times reports, “While the base case remains a reduction in borrowing costs, the options market shows a 20% probability of an increase.” That means most investors think the Federal Reserve will cut general interest rates this year, but they reckon there’s a 20% chance of the central bank actually hiking them. That’s new and scary.
Although the Fed doesn’t directly determine mortgage rates it has a huge influence on the bond market that does. And I very much doubt mortgage rates will fall consistently before the Fed signals that a cut in general interest rates is imminent. And a Fed rate hike is likely to send mortgage rates much higher: maybe back up to 8% or beyond.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged down to 4.6% from 4.64%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices decreased to $81.59 from $82.06 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices fell to $2,333 from $2,350 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — climbed to 40 from 33 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or close to unchanged. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Today
This morning’s two April purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) will likely be good for mortgage rates. These “flashes” (initial readings and subject to revision) are both from S&P.
Here are this morning’s actual numbers in bold, alongside the prepublication consensus forecasts, according to MarketWatch, together with the March actual figures:
Services PMI — 50.9 actual; 52 expected; 51.7 in March
Manufacturing PMI — 51.1 actual; 52 expected; 51.9 in March
You can see that the PMIs were worse than expected, which is typically good news for mortgage rates.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow’s durable goods orders for March rarely affect mortgage rates. And they’d need to contain some pretty shocking data to do so tomorrow.
Markets are expecting those orders to have risen by 2.6% in March compared to a 1.3% increase in February. They’ll probably need to be significantly higher than 2.% to exert upward pressure on mortgage rates and appreciably lower to push them downward.
The rest of this week
Nothing has changed since yesterday concerning economic reports due on Thursday and Friday. So, I’ll repeat what I wrote yesterday:
We’re due the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March quarter on Thursday. And that could have a larger effect than PMIs and durable goods orders, depending on the gap between expectations and actuals.
But Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for March is this week’s star report. That’s the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation. And it could certainly affect mortgage rates, possibly appreciably.
The next meeting of the Fed’s rate-setting committee is scheduled to start on Apr. 30 and last two days. So, the PCE price index will be the last inflation report it sees before making decisions.
And index that shows inflation cooling could change the mood at that meeting. True, it’s vanishingly unlikely that a cut to general interest rates will be unveiled on May 1 no matter what.
But a PCE price index that shows inflation cooling could help the Fed to move forward with cuts earlier than expected, which should cause mortgage rates to fall. Unfortunately, one that suggests inflation remains hot or is getting hotter could send those rates higher.
I’ll brief you more fully on each potentially significant report on the day before it’s published.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Apr. 18 report put that same weekly average at 7.1%, up from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Mar. 19 and the MBA’s on Apr. 18.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.7%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
MBA
6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Granted, there was a possibility that today could have been a rally day for the bond market, but as seen in the overnight trading session, that possibility depended on the escalation of war in the Middle East. There aren’t many other reasons for bonds to push back too much on recent weakness. One of the only other reasons would be Friday position squaring and short covering, but that would be just as much of an indication of ongoing bearishness in bonds. In that sense, holding sideways is possibly the best victory we could have hoped for today. The fact that we’ve avoided Tuesday’s high yields through the end of the week could even signal sideways vibes until May, at which point data and the Fed will let us know the direction of the next big move.
09:38 AM
Initially stronger overnight, but giving up gains since then. 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.609. MBS up 1 tick (.03).
10:27 AM
10yr all the way back to unchanged at 4.627. MBS down 2 ticks (.06)
02:02 PM
Broadly sideways and choppy, but currently unchanged in MBS and 10yr.
04:27 PM
Still sideways. MBS up 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.622
Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.
The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that’s come out since then has everyone singing a different tune. This week’s data was more of an afterthought compared to last week’s.
The chart above pertains to Fed rate expectations, and that’s not exactly the same as longer term rates like mortgages and 10yr Treasury yields. The latter saw a bit more volatility this week.
Monday’s Retail Sales data was much stronger than expected and markets reacted immediately. Tuesday’s data was consequential, but it was followed by a speech in which Fed Chair Powell had an opportunity to provide some updated thoughts on the rate outlook. After all, the Fed hadn’t seen the most recent CPI data (and several other strong reports) at the time the last round of rate projections came out in March.
As the market expected, the tone is evolving. While Powell and the Fed repeat that the rate path depends on economic data, it’s no surprise to see recent comments acknowledging a surprising amount of strength in the recent data. Stronger data means fewer rate cuts. Powell went as far as saying there was new uncertainty as to whether the Fed will even be able to cut in 2024.
Two days later, NY Fed President John Williams struck similar tone. Just last week, he had pushed back on the CPI data, saying the Fed wasn’t surprised by setbacks in the inflation data. This week’s comments did more to acknowledge the other side of data dependency. Specifically, Williams said the Fed could hike again if the data called for it.
To be sure, these are not earth-shattering “ifs” and “thens.” But the market hones in on the subtle differences with which the data dependency is communicated. It didn’t help that Thursday morning’s Philly Fed Manufacturing Index moved up to the highest levels in 2 years or that the “prices paid” component of the same report moved up much more than economists expected.
Here’s how the entire week looked in terms of 10yr Treasury yields.
Friday’s reaction to the attacks in Iran is important because it shows us that some geopolitical news is indeed worth a reaction. That was less clear earlier in the week as multiple batches of somewhat similar headlines failed to cause as much movement. The difference on Friday was the uncertainty over the status of Iran’s nuclear sites as well as concern that it would be the catalyst for the outbreak of much more significant fighting. The market calmed down quite quickly once it was clear the nuclear sites were not damaged and that Iran was not retaliating. The correlation between stock prices and bond yields further confirms the “flight to safety” trading pattern commonly seen after such news.
In the bigger picture, the past 2 weeks have gone a long way toward making the end of 2023 look like yet another “false start” toward lower rates. Up until then, we had sort of a sideways fighting chance. While we have labeled late 2023 as the 3rd false start of this cycle, it wouldn’t meet the purest definition until rates rise back above last October’s highs. We’re definitely not there yet and we won’t know if we’ll get there until we see the next round of big ticket economic data in May.
In the meantime, home sales remain constrained.
Next week’s economic data is fairly muted apart from Friday’s PCE price index. This isn’t as much of a market mover as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it could certainly cause some volatility if it happens to send a different message.
Higher mortgage rates with duration will likely lead to higher inventory, which we have seen repeatedly for the past 10 years. However, 2023 tested my model as the inventory growth rate on a week-to-week basis was slow, even when rates headed toward 8%. It’s a simple model: inventory should grow between 11,000-17,000 weekly with rates over 7.25%. After failing time and time again, we finally got there this week with 16,582.
Weekly inventory change (April 12-19): Inventory rose from 526,462 to 543,044
The same week last year (April 14-21), Inventory rose from 406,600 to 414,701
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,060,669
New listings data
Now that inventory is growing more closely with what I am looking for, new listing data must keep its year-over-year growth trend. Last year, when mortgage rates headed toward 8%, we saw no negative hit to the latest listings data, meaning it didn’t take a new leg lower. So, with higher rates now and some growth year over year, I hope we keep the momentum going. We need this to happen to get balance in housing.
Here’s what new listings look like for last week over the last several years:
2024: 68,769
2023: 59,269
2022: 59,803
Price-cut percentage
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls and the price-cut percentage grows. That percentage falls when rates drop and demand improves.
As mortgage rates rise with inventory, the price-cut percentage should increase unless demand keeps up with inventory growth. Last week, we saw a slight decline in the price cuts.
Here is the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
2024: 32%
2023: 29.4%
2022: 18.7%
10-year yield and mortgage rates
We had a lot of headline drama last week, between Powell talking about taking rate cuts off the table, escalating war in the Middle East, and economic data beating estimates. This sent the 10-year yield and mortgage rates higher. I talked about this on the HousingWire Daily podcast, discussing my central theme that for the Fed to pivot, it’s labor over Inflation.
When the labor market breaks, the Fed will pivot; we aren’t there just yet. As the chart below shows, many people were looking at the growth rate of inflation falling as the main driver for the Fed, but that isn’t working in this cycle.
One positive story about mortgage rates in 2024 is that the spreads are improving, and that has kept a lid on the damage from higher yields. The spreads are acting a bit better than I thought they would, I had assumed we would need to get closer to rate cuts before they would behave this way. However, this bodes well for the future because if the spreads get back to normal and the 10-year yield falls with it, we can easily get to the low 6s range for mortgage rates and potentially below 6%.
Purchase application data
One surprising data point from last week was that purchase application data showed positive growth, and the year-over-year decline was much less.
However, the only reason this happened is that the week before, the Easter holiday negatively impacted the data, which made this week’s growth data need a lot of context. With weekly housing data, holiday activity can move negative and positive, but after two weeks, it gets back on trend. So, take last week’s growth with a grain of salt.
Since November 2023, when mortgage rates started to fall, we have had 11 positive prints versus seven negative prints and two flat prints week-to-week. Year to date, we have had five positive prints, seven negative prints, and two flat prints.
The week ahead: Housing and inflation
We have new home sales and pending home sales coming up this week, and we will see how much the recent rate increase has impacted the data line. Also, the Fed’s main inflation report, the PCE inflation data, will be released on Friday, so it should be a wild day. Ever since the 10-year yield broke it’s critical support line, the bond market and mortgage rates have been acting up, so this inflation report will be key as the Fed will factor in how much we need mortgage rates to stay higher for longer in this economic expansion.