Interest rates care about quite a few different things, but inflation and Fed policy are two of the biggest considerations. One of the Fed’s favorite ways to track progress on inflation is the PCE price index which comes out every month, but also every quarter.
Oddly enough, the quarterly comes out a day before the monthly data on the 4 days of the year where a new quarter is reported. Today was one of those days and the quarterly data showed a big surge in inflation. The implication is that there’s a much bigger risk that tomorrow’s monthly inflation number also proves to be higher than expected.
Bonds/rates don’t like inflation to begin with, but it’s even more problematic when it has a direct bearing on Fed policy decisions. This particular news is seen as pushing the Fed even farther into the future for its first rate cut of this cycle. In other words, both the data, and the Fed implications were bad news for rates today.
The average lender jumped immediately higher by roughly an eighth of a point. This brings the top tier conventional 30yr rate index over 7.5% for the first time since November 13th. Tomorrow could add insult to injury, but it’s also worth noting that markets are expecting worse news now, so if it’s only a little worse, the injury might not be that bad.
Sales of newly built single-family homes in the United States soared in March despite mortgage rates remaining elevated that month.
New home sales, which make up about 10% of the market, jumped 8.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000, according to government figures released Tuesday. That trounced the 670,000 rate projected by economists, according to a FactSet poll, and was the strongest monthly increase since December 2022.
Sales of new homes increased across the country last month, rising the most in the Northeast region by a robust 27.8% from February.
Meanwhile, sales of existing homes, which make up the vast majority of the housing market, fell 4.3% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million, the sharpest drop in more than a year, the National Association of Realtors reported last week.
Housing market poised to remain difficult
The broader US housing market is expected to remain tough for Americans, with mortgage rates poised to stay well above 6% this year, economists say. The Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its actions do influence them, and the central bank isn’t expected to cut interest rates anytime soon. A persistent undersupply of housing also remains a key pressure point in the market, contributing to low affordability.
Housing inventory has improved in recent months, but supply still isn’t keeping up with demand. This means homebuyers have limited options as some homeowners who locked in a low mortgage rate before the Fed began to hike rates in 2022 largely prefer to not sell their homes.
“Despite high prices and mortgage rates, homebuyers have limited options on the resale market, although resale inventories have improved some over the course of this year,” Gregg Logan, managing director at RCLCO Real Estate Consulting, said in a note Tuesday.
“The willingness of the major homebuilders to utilize incentives such as price reductions, mortgage rate buy-downs and paying buyers closings costs continue to support a healthy pace of new home sales,” he added.
A stalled housing market recovery?
The housing market began the year with some momentum as home sales surged, homebuilder sentiment perked up and inventory levels climbed, but now it seems to have fizzled out.
In addition to the March drop in existing home sales, residential construction of single-family homes also fell that month, declining 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.022 million units, according to Commerce Department data released earlier this month. Residential construction fell throughout the country except in the West. Meanwhile, building permits for future construction tumbled 3.7% in March to a five-month low.
Data from the National Association of Home Builders showed that 22% of builders cut homes prices in April, down from 24% in March. Meanwhile, the share of builders who offered a sales incentive edged lower to 57% in April from 60% in March. Sentiment among homebuilders in America held steady in April, NAHB said.
“April’s flat reading suggests potential for demand growth is there, but buyers are hesitating until they can better gauge where interest rates are headed,” NAHB’s chief economist, Robert Dietz, said in a release.
This story has been updated with additional context.
Welcome to NerdWallet’s Smart Money podcast, where we answer your real-world money questions. In this episode:
Learn how scammers deceive victims by using AI for voice cloning and learn how you can protect yourself from other AI-related fraud.
How can you protect yourself from AI-driven scams that target your finances?
What new scams are happening as technology advances?
Hosts Sean Pyles and Sara Rathner discuss the alarming use of AI in scams and the future of fraud to help you understand how to safeguard your personal security. They begin with a discussion of AI-driven voice scams, with tips and tricks on recognizing potential fraud, staying informed about scam tactics, and the importance of open discussion to empower against scammer tactics.
Then, scam expert Bob Sullivan, author of “Stop Getting Ripped Off” and host of the podcast The Perfect Scam, joins Sean to discuss the broader implications of AI technology in scams. They discuss the potential for AI to personalize phishing attacks, the ease of creating convincing fake audio, and the importance of skepticism in the face of unexpected calls. Plus: the need for technology companies to embed safeguards, the role of societal learning in approaching unexpected calls, and the importance of verifying any financial requests you receive.
Check out this episode on your favorite podcast platform, including:
NerdWallet stories related to this episode:
Episode transcript
This transcript was generated from podcast audio by an AI tool.
Sean Pyles:
We already know that our robot overlords are coming, but in the meantime, while they plot, their artificial intelligence skills are being put to use by bad actors all over the world, utilizing technology to bilk people out of their money. That includes using AI to copy someone’s voice and demand ransom for a non-existent kidnapping.
Jennifer DeStefano:
I had a full conversation with my daughter. It was interactive. There was no pause. There was no break. There was nothing that would lead me to believe that it wasn’t her. So when the mom that stepped outside called 911, she came back in and she said, “Hey, 911 tipped me off that there’s a scam where they use AI and they can replicate anyone’s voice.” I didn’t believe it. It gave me hope, but I didn’t believe it.
Sean Pyles:
Welcome to NerdWallet’s Smart Money Podcast. I’m Sean Pyles.
Sara Rathner:
And I’m Sara Rathner. And Sean, that clip is as creepy as it gets.
Sean Pyles:
It is, and the story we’re going to hear today is as creepy and as awful as it gets as we wrap up our Nerdy deep dive into scams and identity theft and how to protect yourself from all of it so you don’t lose your life savings. Today we’re going to examine the future of the scam industry and the expanding role of AI.
Sara Rathner:
Yeah, I have to say, and I know you’ve touched on this in several of your interviews already, this is exhausting. I mean, it’s hard to listen to this and not think, yeah, no matter what, I’m screwed. They’re going to get me unless I spend all this time and effort protecting myself. And who has the time for that?
Sean Pyles:
I hear you, Sara, and it’s easy to feel somewhat defeated by all these organized criminals whose sole job is to steal our identities, which technology seems to make easier and easier for them, and to scam us in ways that we can’t even conceive of until it happens.
Sara Rathner:
I mean, I’d rather spend more time taking naps, honestly. I don’t do that enough and I’m really sleep-deprived, which is probably making me more susceptible to scams, honestly.
Sean Pyles:
Yeah, I am totally there with you. But Sara, I think we’ve also provided listeners, you included, with some really practical ways to fully arm ourselves that don’t take an undue amount of effort. And as we’ve been saying, one of the most important takeaways from this series, I think, is for everyone to realize that there is no immunity here. This stuff can happen to anyone regardless of how old you are, how much schooling you’ve had, or how much money you make, where you live. It’s a universal risk, and the more we talk about it, the more power we take away from the bad actors.
Sara Rathner:
All right. Well, the idea that AI is getting in on the action is slightly terrifying. You mentioned our robot overlords at the top of the show, and I guess they’re coming for everybody’s bank account PINs.
Sean Pyles:
If only it were that simple, Sara. AI is being deployed in sophisticated ways to manipulate our emotions, find vulnerabilities in software that we rely on every day, and generally make our lives like something out of that show Black Mirror. So in this episode, we’re going to explore things like how is AI being used in scams, what’s the deal with these AI voice scams and what hellish development might we see next in the world of scams. To start, we hear from a woman named Jennifer DeStefano. She lives in Arizona and had an experience that no one should ever go through, but that provides a window into one of the ways that scammers can reach into your heart and try to pull money from your bank account.
Sara Rathner:
All right. We want to hear what you think too, listeners. So tell us your stories of identity theft or getting scammed or share how you’re working to fight it or recover from it. Leave us a voicemail or text the Nerd Hotline at 901-730-6373. That’s 901-730-NERD. Or email a voice memo to [email protected]. Here’s Sean with our first guest.
Sean Pyles:
Jennifer DeStefano. Welcome to Smart Money.
Jennifer DeStefano:
Thank you so much for having me.
Sean Pyles:
So Jennifer, you experienced an AI voice scam. Can you set the scene for us? What was that day like before you got this phone call?
Jennifer DeStefano:
It was just a normal day. I had two children that were up training for a ski race and I had my daughter, she was at dance, so I was going to go pick her up and then hopefully joining my other two kids later in the weekend. So I went to pull up to the studio and get out of my car to go get her, and I got a phone call and it came in from an unknown number. Originally I was going to ignore it, but knowing that I had two of them that were practicing for a ski race and unknown can be medical, you just never know, just in case I decided to answer it.
When I answered it, I said hello, and I was getting out of my vehicle, so I had all my stuff in my hands. I was walking through the parking lot, so I had the phone on speaker and it was my older daughter crying and sobbing saying, “Mom, Mom, I messed up.” And I said, didn’t think anything of it. She ski raced for a number of years. It was a very familiar phone call. And I said, “Okay. What happened?” And she goes, “Mom, I messed up.” And I said, “Okay. What’d you do?” And then all of a sudden a man came on and he said, “Put your head down, lay back.”
And at that point I thought she got really hurt just being toboggan. So then I started to get really concerned. I’m like, “Wait, wait, wait. What’s going on? What’s happening, Bri? What’s going on?” And then this man gets on the phone as she starts saying, “Mom, help me. These bad men have me. Help me, help me, help me.” The phone, her voice starts to fade off with her crying and sobbing and pleading for me. And this man gets on the phone. He goes, “Listen here, I have your daughter.”
“You call the police, you call anybody, I’m going to pop her stomach so full of drugs and have my way with her and then drop her for dead in Mexico.”And at that point was when I had my hand on the door handle of dance, and I walked inside the room and I just started screaming for help. So fortunately there happened to be three other moms there that know me well. I was asking my younger daughter to get her dad on the phone, call her brother, call anybody. So she actually jumped up and ran over to my younger daughter to say, “Let’s go find your dad. Let’s figure this out.”
Another mom said, “I’m going to go call 911.” She stepped outside to go call the police, and the third mom sat beside me so she could hear everything the man was saying as I was trying to figure out where my daughter was, what’s going on.
Sean Pyles:
And so it’s a perfectly normal day. You’re about to get your kids after a day of them doing their activities, you get a phone call and within 30 seconds your world is turned upside down.
Jennifer DeStefano:
Completely upside down. I had no idea what was going on. I had a full conversation with my daughter. It was interactive. There was no pause. There was no break. There was nothing that would lead me to believe that wasn’t her. So when the mom that stepped outside called 911, she came back in and she said, “Hey, 911 tipped me off that there’s a scam where they use AI and they can replicate anyone’s voice.” She’s like, “It could have been a voice recording.” I’m like, “It was definitely not a voice recording. It was interactive. I was asking her questions. She was responding to me. It was not a recording.” And she’s like, “Well, they can do anything.” I’m like, “But it was her crying. It was her sobbing. I know it’s my daughter. It wasn’t a recording.”
Sean Pyles:
And what thoughts are going through your head as you’re having this conversation with what sounds exactly like your daughter?
Jennifer DeStefano:
I didn’t for a second not believe it. It wasn’t until another mom actually got my daughter on the phone and I talked to her and she reassured me that she was who she really was, and I could finally wrap my head around it. And then I finally believed her and then I knew it was a scam.
Sean Pyles:
How much time elapsed from the time that you answered the phone to when your actual daughter was speaking to you and you were reassured the phone call that you got wasn’t legitimate?
Jennifer DeStefano:
So the whole phone call actually took four minutes, but that’s where time freezes in that panic and fear.
Sean Pyles:
Right. Oh God, that’s heartbreaking. So do you know how the scammers got your daughter’s voice and maybe why they targeted you specifically?
Jennifer DeStefano:
So I had a bunch of different thoughts on that. Okay. She’s done a few interviews related to school, sports, whatnot, but that still doesn’t explain the crying and sobbing. It doesn’t explain that conversation. Her voice recording for her phone is her prepubescent voice, so it’s not her current voice. So I honestly have no idea. That’s where a lot of this, what’s scary is at first it was are they following me? Is it targeted? Do they know something? But then hearing how it had happened to a number of other people in different capacities, and you realize it’s a lot more arm’s length.
They were demanding money to be hand delivered to them. So they were making arrangements to come pick me up in a white van with a bag over my head. I had to have all the cash. They were going to take me to my daughter, and if I didn’t have all the cash, then we were both dead.
Sean Pyles:
God, how much were they asking for?
Jennifer DeStefano:
It was originally a million dollars. And then he came up with a number of $50,000 when I pushed back that that wasn’t possible.
Sean Pyles:
And to this day, it’s unclear why you specifically got this call?
Jennifer DeStefano:
I have no idea.
Sean Pyles:
Okay. And so after the phone call ended, I assume you hung up on the scammer when you realized that your daughter was safe.
Jennifer DeStefano:
So once I realized my daughter was safe, I actually had them on mute and they were furious that I wasn’t making final arrangements for a pickup. And then I picked the phone back up and I called them out and said, you don’t have my daughter, this is a scam and I’m going to make sure that this is going to come to a stop and I’m going to do anything I can to stop you. And I hung up on him.
Sean Pyles:
God, what are you on an individual or maybe even a family level doing to safeguard yourselves? Have you guys established a safe phrase that you might use to confirm your identities?
Jennifer DeStefano:
So we did create a safe word, and then it’s a lot of communication. Where are you? Who are you with? Where are you going? So that way if I do get a phone call or anybody gets a phone call, you can easily put it through the test. Does this make sense? Is this where they’re supposed to be? Is this even possible? Do you know the code word? Do you have some identifiers? If I didn’t know where my daughter was supposed to be, I wouldn’t have been able to locate her as fast as I did. And I had her brother, I had all of her siblings coming together in response to help me as well. So everybody was in full communication. You have to communicate and you have to seek help.
Sean Pyles:
Well, Jennifer, is there anything that you would like to leave listeners with?
Jennifer DeStefano:
Just awareness, have these conversations, sometimes maybe tough conversations, especially with children. But you have to have the conversations, have safe words, know where your kids are at. You have to have these conversations and make sure you safeguard your family.
Sean Pyles:
Well, Jennifer DeStefano, thank you for sharing your story with us.
Jennifer DeStefano:
Thank you so much for having me. I really appreciate it.
Sean Pyles:
Sara. I found this story just heartbreaking. I mean, at least they found out it was a scam before handing over money or before Jennifer offered herself up to scammers. But not everyone is so fortunate. Imagine how hard it is to say no to something like this when a loved one seems to be in jeopardy.
Sara Rathner:
Yeah, there was a piece recently in The Cut written by a journalist who knew she would never, ever fall for something like this. Don’t we all think that? And ended up handing over $50,000 in a shoebox to a stranger in a large SUV. I don’t think anybody ever sees themselves doing that. I’m glad Jennifer DeStefano didn’t let it get that far with the help of friends.
Sean Pyles:
And there’s hope that help will come from more than friends. Earlier this year the Federal Trade Commission proposed new rules that would prohibit the impersonation of individuals. It recently enacted rules that prohibit impersonating government or businesses. This proposed rule would extend to, well, us. The proposal is currently in a comment period, so if you feel so moved, go to the FTC’s website, ftc.gov, and comment.
Well, next we’re going to talk with another journalist, Bob Sullivan, who’s been covering the scam world for years now. He hosts a podcast for the AARP called The Perfect Scam and is the author of Stop Getting Ripped Off, among other books. We’re going to talk about the future of the scam world and how to protect yourself as technology continues to make it easier for the bad guys. That’s coming up in a moment. Stay with us.
Bob Sullivan, I’m so glad you could join us on Smart Money.
Bob Sullivan:
Thanks so much for having me.
Sean Pyles:
So Bob, the first question I have for you is how do I know that you are the real Bob Sullivan and not an AI-generated Bob Sullivan?
Bob Sullivan:
This is an excellent question and I’m glad that you’ve started there. You can’t, really. In fact, I did an episode on my own podcast recently where I had someone clone my voice and rather persuasively introduce the podcast, although family members pointed out to me that there were just little things that didn’t quite sound right. So either I was AI or maybe I had a bad cold or something. But it’s hard to tell, a little nasally.
Sean Pyles:
So in this series we’ve talked about identity theft, identity fraud, and the scam world, and I’m hoping that today you can give us a warning about the future of all of this and the role that artificial intelligence or AI is going to play and in fact is playing. So to start, when did we first start seeing AI being put to use in this way? Do you remember a specific AI-generated fraud or scam where you said, oh wow, this is something new?
Bob Sullivan:
Well, I have to be honest with you and say that I sit here reading emails about scams and fraud all day long, and I have not seen evidence of these kinds of things that a lot of folks are talking about right now, which is voice cloning or deep fake videos being used to fool people. Here’s a couple of things that I am worried about, however. All the data collection that we have, the criminals now have access to it and it’s going to be very easy for criminals to use that data to just really carefully craft their phishing pitches so that they’ll know exactly when you are transactional, for example.
Then they’ll know precisely when you order something from Amazon or what your zip code says about your income, and they’ll know how to attack the right person at the right time with the right message. And that’s the kind of artificial intelligence that I’m worried about, criminals using big data to essentially perfectly hone their crimes. But there’s one other thing that I’d really like to mention that enough experts have told me about that I am quite concerned about it, and that’s this idea of generative AI, where a tool like ChatGPT can engage in conversations and learn.
We have told people forever that one of the ways that they might recognize that they’re talking to a criminal over email or in chat or in a game is bad grammar or sentences that don’t quite make sense, non sequiturs. Well ChatGPT is getting very good at holding intelligent sounding conversations. Let’s start by saying it’s going to probably eliminate the bad grammar problem, but even more than that, imagine a tool that learns along the way just the right things to say to romance someone using a formula that’s been tested in the real world or the right things to say to get someone to follow the instructions for an investment scam.
I think these tools are going to learn how to carry on these conversations in ways that we’ve never seen at large scale, and that’s the kind of artificial intelligence that I’m worried about being used in scams.
Sean Pyles:
Okay. And can you talk us through how these AI voice cloning scams do work, whether they’re pervasive or not?
Bob Sullivan:
Sure. Well, I mean there are services, the fellow who did it on me signed up for a website that lets you do this for $5 a month and the first month is 80% off. So for literally one US dollar, you can upload samples of my voice or anyone’s voice and then generate for a potential scam victim, something that sounds incredibly realistic. I think the one thing that’s important to understand about what’s different about voice cloning, I don’t know if you remember the movie Sneakers, it’s one of my favorite hacker movies.
But in that movie, they basically needed a voice passport in order to enter a highly secure building, and they needed the authority figure to say things so that they could piece together cut and paste style a certain sentence, for example. So one way you might be imagining this works is someone tricks me into saying, my mother is in distress and I need you to send money to this wire account, but that’s not it. Instead, what’s powerful about AI voice cloning is with just a few sentences from me, they can extrapolate my intonation, my pausing and make me say anything.
So you don’t need a whole lot of vocabulary in order to make a really, really effective, almost fully independent voice clone.
Sean Pyles:
Well, I’d like to walk our listeners through some of the ways that fraudsters and scammers are putting this technology to work right now in ways that are shocking even to you. Can you share one or two examples that you know of that will give us a sense of just how bonkers this new era is?
Bob Sullivan:
Well, let me go back to the big data example. Foreign governments and large hacker organizations do have what would look to most people like a credit reporting agency on all of us. They have thousands of bits of data about all of us that they can use against us, and it’s data that they’ve been compiling for years. So they know what your tendencies are, they know where you shop, they know where you are. We never talk nearly enough about the theft of location data. All our cell phones are tracking devices.
And so a criminal could know when you’re walking past a store and send you a precisely timed invitation to either buy something at a discount or even worse to send you a note saying, I was just in Ireland. Bob, there’s a bank in Ireland that suddenly tried to charge a $2,000 charge to your account, say yes or no. And I would believe that message right now because I was just there. Those kinds of highly sophisticated, highly targeted crimes enabled by massive amounts of data that again can be searched now instantaneously, that’s the kind of thing that really scares me.
Sean Pyles:
And those examples are highly specific and individualized, which makes them all the more believable. So it makes it hard to trust anything that’s inbound to us.
Bob Sullivan:
Absolutely. And this is a tragedy because technology enables so many wonderful things. It is a terrible thing that we have all of these dark stories as this gray cloud around tech that’s going to prevent a lot of people from even trying to use it, and it’s going to make all of us feel just a little bit insecure because we know these sorts of bad and dangerous things can happen to us. The best example of this is in the health arena. We’re so far behind in what electronic health records could be in America right now.
When you go to the hospital, you’re laying on a gurney and there’s someone asking you over and over again, are you allergic to penicillin and you just were in a car accident. And that’s ridiculous. But because we are, I mean there’s many reasons, but a big one is we are so concerned about criminals misusing this data or companies misusing this data that we are decades behind where we could be with things like electronic health records.
Sean Pyles:
Earlier this episode, I spoke with a woman who received an AI voice scam call from what sounded like her daughter, and it of course wasn’t her daughter. But after everything settled down, she still doesn’t really understand how these people got her daughter’s voice. Her daughter isn’t really on social media, and this woman is also very unclear as to why she was targeted. So do you know how scammers are capturing people’s voices and why they might choose to target one person over another?
Bob Sullivan:
So I don’t know. I think for the vast majority of young people, it would be fairly trivial to examine a couple of TikTok videos and get enough voice sample in order to fake their voices. There are people who are not on social media and whose recorded voices aren’t in any, say, school websites or anything like that. I think they are few and far between. So I think most people should assume that a criminal could absolutely get enough audio samples of your voice to do this to you. So I can’t speak to that specific instance or why that person was targeted or why that child was targeted.
The only thing that concerns me is I don’t think we should give anyone the impression that this is happening on a widespread basis. It’s not. 99% of these kinds of calls are still being done by just human beings in boiler rooms. Nevertheless, this absolutely can be done. It can be done really inexpensively. And as I just mentioned, all of us are vulnerable to this. You’d be shocked at how much, even if you don’t have any social media, that pieces of your life have been posted by other people.
So it’s out there, and again, it takes very little, we’re talking probably less than a minute of audio in order to generate a fake you.
Sean Pyles:
What do you think we’re supposed to try to do to combat this? I mean, using me as an example, I host this podcast, you host one too. Our voices are out there just waiting for scammers to take a clip and make us say whatever they want, call our loved ones and use that voice to try to get their money. How do we fight that?
Bob Sullivan:
Yeah, you and I are screwed.
Sean Pyles:
Bob Sullivan:
Sorry. But the best, I talked to some other expert about this, so I can’t claim this advice myself, but I think it’s very good advice. At the beginning of the Photoshop era, people saw pictures of pyramids moved and weren’t skeptical of that. We just thought photographs couldn’t lie. I think nowadays for the most part, and certainly not everybody, for the most part, if you saw a crazy picture of Joe Biden riding on a camel or something, that there would be a piece of you at least that would say wait a minute, this might be fake.
There’s now an impulse that things you see might very well be faked. I’m hoping that our level of 21st century digital sophistication gets there quick enough with audio that your parents and my parents will have a predisposition to think if this is a weird phone call from Bob or Sean, it could be fake. And I think that’s the sort of learning curve we all have to go through kind of as a society.
Sean Pyles:
Well, let’s turn to some tactical ways that people can try to protect themselves. Can you tell us about the importance of things like pass keys, biometrics, other ways to authenticate that you are who you are when you get a call from someone or you allegedly call someone else?
Bob Sullivan:
I’m glad you brought that up. When it comes to voice printing in particular, there are these new technologies that are a little bit like image watermarking they’re discussing putting on voices. So you can imagine there being something even inaudible embedded in an audio phone call, which the technology company, the phone company, used seamlessly to verify that you were you, sort of like a Verisign email or whatnot. So there’s people who are working on technologies that would help with this verification. I’m not a fan of putting these really hard things onto individual consumers.
I think it’d be much better if the technology companies were forced to solve these problems because I can’t give my mom advice on how to verify how I might contact her at every platform that ever is going to exist. That advice is going to get outdated almost immediately.
Sean Pyles:
Given that we do live in this world that we are living in, I’m trying to think about ways that I can protect myself and my family. After I began doing research into 21st century scams, I established a safe phrase that if my family gets a call that alleges it’s from me and I’m in a panic, they’ll say, “Hey, what’s the safe phrase?” And I will tell them that phrase, if it’s actually me. And if it’s not, then the scammer’s going to try to divert them some other way, I’m sure.
Bob Sullivan:
I do think that’s great, and I don’t mean to trivialize any of that, but I would like to point out most people in security would say you’ve also created a vulnerability because someone armed with that phrase could easily disarm someone in your family, right?
Sean Pyles:
That’s true. Although the phrase has only been uttered in person when we agreed on what the phrase is. So we’ve tried to keep it as away from recording devices as possible to the extent that we can.
Bob Sullivan:
The only real point in my saying that was none of these things are foolproof. So it’s good to have that in mind. I think the one thing that helps all the time in the end, whatever we’re talking about here, almost inevitably, is a cover story for give me money. All of these, whatever technology we’re using, whatever the story is, in the end, there’s an ask of some kind. And stealing people against the ask is really, really important. And the best way to do that is interruption. The best way to do that is to train everybody in every circumstance, whatever is happening, to stop and talk to an independent third party, whether that be a family member or a financial professional or something.
Your son’s in jail in Europe, he needs bail money immediately, take the 15 seconds to talk to someone not involved in the situation and hear the words come out of your mouth. When you get a phone call you don’t expect, hang up and then go to the company’s website yourself and call the official published number, call the company back. That solves about 99% of these problems.
Sean Pyles:
Well, Bob, I’m asking this of all of the experts that we’re talking with for this series. So I’m going to ask you too, have you ever experienced a scam or identity theft or fraud?
Bob Sullivan:
No, but I’ve certainly been through a bunch of credit card-style identity thefts, but fortunately, knock on wood, nothing that we would consider deeply involved identity theft.
Sean Pyles:
Well, Bob, do you have any hopeful thoughts as we wrap up this series, which has been a bit of a bummer as we’ve talked about fraud and scams and people losing their life savings to technology assisted terrible people?
Bob Sullivan:
Yeah. So I spend all my week talking to people who’ve had their life savings stolen from them in all manner of speaking. It’s hard to stay optimistic. I think there’s a whole bunch of factors coming into play here. We have an aging population, many of whom thankfully have a lot of savings, they’re an easy target. And as I’ve mentioned, we have all of these tools that make it so much easier for someone halfway around the world to steal money instantly in untraceable ways. This has never happened in human history before, so this is the golden age of crime.
However, we are all talking about it now. So that’s really positive. Here’s the most optimistic thing I can tell you. Young people, software designers, engineers inside companies are now getting out of school having taken ethics classes and social impact classes and are starting to push back on their managers when they come up with tools like this. And that’s where the tide will turn is when enough people who have a grandparent who’s been a victim of a scam work at a software company and they say, we have to put this protection into this device before we release it to the world. And I do think those conversations are happening. So I am actually optimistic about that.
Sean Pyles:
That’s good to hear. And is there anything else that you wanted to mention that we didn’t touch on?
Bob Sullivan:
What we find is that a really, really big obstacle to fixing this problem is shame and embarrassment. Many, many people won’t come forward after they’ve been a victim of a crime like this because they feel stupid. I called myself stupid. All the language around scam crimes tends to focus on the individual instead of the system. Well, if you read a news story about a person who fell for a home improvement scam, that just doesn’t sound the same thing as someone who was robbed at gunpoint.
Sean Pyles:
Was the victim of a crime. That’s what happened at the end of the day.
Bob Sullivan:
They’re a victim of a crime, and we work hard on the language that we use to stress that there was a crime. There’s something about if we say, well, that person fell for this scam. Well, I would never fall for that scam. You can sort of put it at arm’s length, and that makes it a little easier to not do anything about the problem. And it takes the focus off the criminal. We kind of think the criminals are clever and sexy. But more than anything, we want to try to get away from the idea of shame because when someone is embarrassed because they are a victim of a crime, they don’t come forward.
The statistics don’t reveal the true nature and breadth of the crime. Everybody will tell you this, all this crime is wildly under reported. So however big the numbers seem to be, they’re at least double what we hear from the Federal Trade Commission and whatnot. And so anything that I can do to relieve the stigma from being a victim of crime like this, I’m all for it.
Sean Pyles:
Bob Sullivan, thank you so much for helping us out today.
Bob Sullivan:
Thanks a lot for having me.
Sean Pyles:
So Sara, after four episodes of hearing from experts and people who have experienced scams, I’m in a state of what I would call bleak optimism. The world right now is rife with scammers and their methods of duping innocent people are evolving at a rapid pace. But simultaneously, I can’t remember a time where scams and fraud were more present in the cultural conversation. Yes, it is fully a tragedy that our means of communication are so compromised that we cannot trust a call from a loved one in what seems like their most dire moment.
That really can’t be overstated. But hopefully the increased awareness of these scams will help people avoid sending money to bad actors and mitigate feelings of shame that people carry after enduring a scam. And hey, maybe one day our government will make some laws that help tamp down on the rampant scams that we’re all facing.
Sara Rathner:
And there’s this saying in journalism, if your mother tells you she loves you, fact check it. Well now you have to. So that’s the world we live in.
Sean Pyles:
If anyone contacts you at all, fact check it.
Sara Rathner:
Yeah. And text them on the side and be like, “Hey, are you calling me from jail right now?” And they’ll be like, “No.”
Sean Pyles:
I think the bottom line for everyone listening is to exercise extreme caution when you speak with anyone online and before you send money to anyone ever.
Sara Rathner:
If somebody is asking you for money and you don’t really know who they are, they are not who they tell you they are. How’s that? How’s that for general rule?
Sean Pyles:
All right. Well, for now, that’s all we have for this episode and this Nerdy deep dive about scams and ID theft and fraud. If you have a money question about any of this or anything else, turn to the Nerds and call or text us your questions at 901-730-6373. That’s 901-730-NERD. You can also email us at [email protected]. Visit nerdwallet.com/podcast for more info on this episode and remember to follow, rate and review us wherever you’re getting this podcast.
Sara Rathner:
This episode was produced by Tess Vigeland. Sean helped with editing. Kevin Berry helped with fact checking, Sara Brink mixed our audio.
Sean Pyles:
And here’s our brief disclaimer, we are not financial or investment advisors. This nerdy info is provided for general educational and entertainment purposes and may not apply to your specific circumstances.
Sara Rathner:
And with that said, until next time, turn to the Nerds.
Lloyds profits fall as competition for mortgages heats up
Pre-tax profits drop to £1.6bn between January and March, down from £2.3bn last year
Business live – latest updates
Lloyds Banking Group has suffered a 28% drop in first-quarter profits amid tough competition for mortgages and savings, but bosses said they expected those pressures to soon ease, helped by an improving UK economy.
The country’s largest mortgage lender, which also owns the Halifax brand, said pre-tax profits dropped to £1.6bn between January and March, having fallen from £2.3bn last year when rising interest rates boosted the lender’s profits by almost 50%.
The bank’s chief financial officer, William Chalmers, said this reflected “keen pricing in the mortgage markets, and savings moving into higher rate accounts”. Competition and jitters in the mortgage market led to a drop in its total outstanding loan book.
It resulted in a 10% drop in net interest income, which accounts for the difference in loan charges versus what is paid out to savers, to £3.2bn in the three months to March.
Pressure from politicians and regulators to pass on interest rates to savers at the same rate they had been raising mortgage and loan charges has squeezed income for major mortgage providers such as Lloyds in recent months.
In response, banks have had to compete harder for customer deposits by offering more substantial returns, particularly on fixed savings products where consumers lock away cash for longer. It attracted £1.3bn in regular customer deposits but that failed to make up for the £3.5bn pulled by business clients.
However, Chalmers said these savings and mortgage pressures were likely to “ease through 2024”, as economic conditions continued to improve.
House prices, which Lloyds previously expected to fall by 2.2% in 2024, are forecast to rise by 1.5% by the end of the year.
The banking group, often seen as a bellwether for the UK economy, is also forecasting a steady improvement in economic growth, at a rate of 0.3% in most quarters and a drop in inflation to 2.4% – from 3.2% in March – resulting in a fall in interest rates to 4.5% by December. It expects the Bank of England to cut rates three times in 2024, starting in the middle of the year.
Chalmers said mortgage applications had already soared by 20% in the first quarter, which could translate into new home loans, and reverse some of its loan book losses. That partly reflected the group’s willingness to offer better interest rates in order to boost lending.
“We’re really pleased to see the pickup in applications, and development of our market share, in that respect. And I think that represents what is a series of competitive offers out there in the market, suiting our customer needs. We’d hope to maintain that ambition over the course of the year,” Chalmers said.
Overall, the banking boss said he expected the UK mortgage market to pick up by 5% by the end of 2024. “We’d hope to play a major part in it,” Chalmers added.
The improved economic outlook meant the bank was more confident that customers could repay their loans. Despite the cost of living crisis and higher mortgage repayments, which have weighed on borrowers, Lloyds set aside £57m for potential defaults, compared with £243m last year.
The Lloyds chief executive, Charlie Nunn, said: “The group is continuing to deliver in line with expectations in the first quarter of 2024, with solid net income, cost discipline and strong asset quality. Our performance provides us with further confidence around our strategic ambitions and 2024 and 2026 guidance.”
Investors had also been hoping for updates on the Financial Conduct Authority investigation into whether consumers have been charged inflated prices for car loans. Lloyds, which has the largest car loan division of the four biggest UK banks, has already put aside £450m – far short of the £2bn that analysts believe it could be on the hook for.
However, Lloyds did not give any more details about whether it might put aside more cash to cover potential fines or compensation for customers. The FCA has indicated that it will give more details on its findings by the autumn.
Data Mining, Servicing, Marketing Products: Check Your Noncompete Agreement; Training Next Week
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Data Mining, Servicing, Marketing Products: Check Your Noncompete Agreement; Training Next Week
By: Rob Chrisman
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 11:23 AM
Sometimes you just have to “risk it for the biscuit.” Capital markets are, for the most part, a little more complicated than, say, a recipe for next level dark chocolate brownies with salted caramel. Occasionally the topic of LOs or brokers being able to lock a loan, any time, any day, comes up. The New York Stock Exchange, owned by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has started polling market participants on their interest in and potential implications of an exchange that trades stocks 24/7. The polling underscores growing interest in trading stocks in off-hours. Could MBS be far behind? The survey comes after 24 Exchange, backed by Steven Cohen’s Point72, applied with the Securities and Exchange Commission to start the first 24-hour exchange. The prospect of 24-hour trading, which would likely lead to changes across the ecosystem, becomes a heavier lift for exchanges as they’re supervised by the SEC. Found here, this week’s podcasts are sponsored by Calque. With The Trade-In Mortgage powered by Calque, homeowners can buy before they sell, make non-contingent offers, and tap their home equity to fund the down payment on their next home. Today’s has an interview with Michael Bremer and Peter Kallodaychsak on interactions between lenders and Realtors in the wake of the proposed NAR settlement.
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services
Down Payment Resource’s Q1 2024 Homeownership Program Index (HPI) report reveals the largest annual jump in programs since it began tracking data in 2020, with 2,373 DPA programs now available nationwide. That’s 204 more programs than Q1 2023, a 9 percent YoY increase. DPR also noted that there’s at least one program in every U.S. county and 10 or more programs available in 2,000 counties, making it highly likely DPA could boost homeownership for borrowers in your footprint. The report also documents increases in programs for manufactured housing and multi-family purchases. Lenders are reminded that DPR is a software company, with a suite of tools to help you operationalize DPA to better serve your customers and lower your declines, especially among LMI buyers. Read the full report or schedule a demo to learn more.
“Every marketing team we’ve talked to is spread thin. Thankfully, Usherpa is here to help! Partnering with Usherpa means your sales team not only gets excellent done-for-them automated marketing campaigns, but your marketing team also gets all the tools and the support they need. Usherpa has its finger on the pulse of the market continually creating new, innovative marketing campaigns… for you! Usherpa’s award-winning automated SmartScore AI Opportunity Alerts and marketing campaigns (free for enterprise clients) are built on proprietary algorithms to target prospects in LO’s databases with effective messaging, creating hot call lists and inbound requests from prospects. Wouldn’t it be nice to have this type of targeted campaign, with proven ROI, launched automatically for your loan officers? Usherpa’s SmartScore AI alerts added an extra $1.4 billion pipeline volume and funded loans (and counting). Schedule a demo today.”
“Revolutionizing mortgage servicing through digital transformation! As Sagent CTO Uday Devalla recently explained in a fireside chat with Robert Turner (Kyndryl) and Manisha Tank (CNN International), since collaborating with Kyndryl to move away from legacy data centers and into the cloud, Sagent is focused on delivering a unified servicing workflow with end-to-end data to truly transform the business processes and improve the lives of the people who use our systems. To learn more about our future-of-servicing model and the benefits of our partnership with Kyndryl, check out our recap here (and watch the interview when you get a chance) and be sure to hit us with your questions.”
Interested in learning how retain/release MSR decisions can be included in your best execution strategy? Join MCT for a webinar today at 11:00 AM PT titled Complete Best Execution – Now Including Fully Integrated Retain/Release MSR Decisioning. In this webinar, MCT will review the current state of the MSR market and discuss more comprehensive retain vs. release strategies, in addition to our recently introduced fully integrated Enhanced Best Execution (EBX) solution. MCT’s Paul Yarbrough will then provide insights from a trader’s perspective regarding MSR best execution strategies at time of loan sale. He will also highlight MCT’s Rapid Commit technology and assignment of trade processes. This session will include a live demo of the EBX (MCTlive! and MSRlive!) integration, showcasing how EBX can effectively optimize your flow MSR trading process and decisions. Register for the webinar to join the session.
Tired of granting excessive concessions that impact your bottom line? Say goodbye to unnecessary giveaways with Optimal Blue data at your fingertips! Access to OB’s data solutions empowers you to make informed decisions, leveraging real-time market insights to negotiate with confidence. With over 35 percent of loans priced and locked through our platform, we offer the depth of market data you need to optimize every deal and maximize profitability. Whether you’re a bank, credit union, or independent mortgage banker, our user-friendly data solutions make it easy to access the information you need to secure the best terms for your borrowers and your business. Learn more about Optimal Blue’s data offerings today to start saving time, money, and headaches on every loan transaction.
Snapdocs released new industry research that found lenders using the company’s eClosing platform experience 18-day faster loan velocity than their industry peers. The survey was conducted by STRATMOR Group with data self-reported by mortgage lenders. I got a note from Michael Sachdev, CEO of Snapdocs, that said eClosing technology, when paired with the right partner to scale adoption, is helping lenders set new industry benchmarks for loan processing speed, operating costs, and borrower satisfaction. So often we see vendors make claims about their product value, but this report is a good example of that validation being sourced directly from the lender users themselves.
Most Noncompetes Now Illegal, Except…
The Federal Trade Commission narrowly voted Tuesday to ban nearly all noncompete agreements, employment agreements that typically prevent workers from joining competing businesses or launching ones of their own. The FTC received more than 26,000 public comments in the months leading up to the vote. The FTC estimates about 30 million people, or one in five American workers, from minimum wage earners to CEOs, are bound by noncompetes. It says the policy change could lead to increased wages totaling nearly $300 billion per year by encouraging people to swap jobs freely. The ban, which will take effect later this year, carves out an exception for existing noncompetes that companies have given their senior executives, on the grounds that these agreements are more likely to have been negotiated. The FTC says employers should not enforce other existing noncompete agreements.
Training, Webinars, and Events Next Week
The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) will host hundreds of community bank leaders during the 2024 ICBA Capital Summit from April 28 to May 1 in Washington. As part of ICBA’s annual advocacy gathering, community bankers will meet with policymakers to discuss ICBA’s regulatory and legislative agenda and share personal accounts of their efforts to stimulate economic growth and support the diverse financial needs of consumers.
Great things are happening around the 2024 Fair Lending Forum, April 29 – May 1 in Charlotte, NC! Asurity is thrilled to announce that Josh Stein, North Carolina Attorney General, will be joining us! He will share his perspectives on fair lending during a fireside chat with our Founder and CEO, Andy Sandler titled The Role of State Attorney Generals in Fair Lending Enforcement. Other prominent speakers are Bob Broeksmit, President and CEO of MBA; Lindsey Johnson, President and CEO of CBA: Grovetta Gardineer, Sr. Deputy Comptroller for Bank Supervision Policy, OCC; Ben Olson, Senior Associate Director for Consumer Protection & Supervision, FRB; Varda Hussain, Principal Deputy Chief for Fair Lending in the Civil Rights Division, Housing and Civil Enforcement Section, DOJ; and Frank Vespa-Papaleo, Principal Deputy Director of Fair Lending, CFPB. Register at www.fairlendingforum.com.
How are Biden’s new student loan repayment programs impacting mortgage affordability? Join LoanSense for a market and student loan update. Lake Michigan Credit Union will join and share how LoanSense helps their credit union members qualify for $50,000+ more home in 21 days. Sign up for the May 1st webinar at 3PM ET.
New York MBA webinar on May 1st at 12pm will explore the journey from origination through servicing, focusing on how to initiate and maintain an electronic process leveraging the latest in digital mortgage technology. Dive into the benefits of MISMO SMART Doc® Version 3 disclosures, eNote, eVault, and the differences between hybrid and full eClosing processes with remote online notarization (RON) and in-person electronic notarization (IPEN). Additionally, strategies for default resolution with digital execution to enhance homeowner engagement and streamline servicer workflows. Hosted by Ryan Murray, Tim Anderson, Shane Hartzler with Stavvy.
If you’re in Minnesota on May 1st, 10:00am – 12:00pm and a Loan Originator, are you interested in creating and building strong realtor relationships? If so, register and attend the “Mastering the Realtor Referral Relationship” presented by Steven Ross, Author of Doors Open When You Knock.
Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for “Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One. Every Wednesday at 2:00 PM EST/11:00 AM PT join Robbie Chrisman and Justin Demola for a dive into a range of mortgage-related topics, including market trends, interest rate fluctuations, innovative mortgage products, and industry advancements. On May 1 listen to Vice President, FICO Mortgage and Capital Markets, Joe Zeibert.
Register for NALHFA Annual Conference 2024, May 1-4 in Las Vegas. Experience education and connection at NALHFA 2024 with an Affordable Housing Bus Tour, Women in Finance Luncheon & Roundtable, Speaker Sessions, and Networking Opportunities.
Thursday, May 2nd, at 3PM ET, Rich Swerbinsky is interviewing the CFPB’s Mark McArdle on what the big misconceptions about the CFPB are, and where its focus is currently.
Register for the Maryland Mortgage Bankers and Brokers Association Annual Conference, scheduled for Thursday, May 2nd, 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. in the picturesque setting of Queenstown. This year’s conference will delve deep into the dynamics of the mortgage industry and explore the current market trends. Whether you’re a seasoned professional or just stepping into the mortgage world, this event promises valuable insights to navigate the industry’s landscape.
Join Northern Michigan Luncheon, Thursday, May 2, 11:30 AM – 1:00 PM at Silver Spruce Brewing Company, to hear from a panel of VA Loan Experts and they dive into the specifics of this loan type, any changes that are coming on VA loans and much more. They’ll also be discussing the pending NAR settlement, and what changes that brings to VA loans, sales, and associated realtor fees.
Friday the 3rd we’ll see an episode of The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown covering current events in the mortgage market for 30-45 minutes starting at noon PT, 3PM ET, in “The Rundown”.
Capital Markets
Spoiler alert: the U.S. economy is motoring along with interest rates at these levels. The U.S. economy appears to be on track for a soft landing, with notable obstacles being a potential resurgence of inflation and heightened geopolitical risks. There’s been a cautious stance on interest rate adjustments from Fed members of late, and some have even floated the possibility of a hike, if warranted by data. Atlanta Fed President Bostic anticipates a slower path to achieving 2 percent inflation than the Fed originally thought, while New York Fed President Williams is not feeling any urgency to cut rates and didn’t rule out the possibility of a hike in his latest remarks. Bostic doesn’t foresee easing until year-end, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari also suggested the Fed could maintain rates throughout the year.
Looking ahead, while no changes to the fed funds rate are expected, a slowdown in the pace of balance sheet runoff is anticipated. The Committee may announce a reduction in the runoff of Treasury securities starting in June, capping it at $30 billion per month, compared to the current cap of $60 billion per month. This adjustment reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties, aiming to maintain stability while monitoring key indicators such as inflation and geopolitical developments.
We learned yesterday that new home sales jumped 8.8 percent to a 693k-unit pace in March, the strongest pace since September 2023. New home sales should continue to gradually improve with a sturdy economy, and structural affordability and availability constraints in the resale market should also help. That noted, strength in the Northeast and West regions has fluctuated, impacting supply dynamics, and higher interest rates and rising existing supply could weigh on the new home market moving forward.
Today’s economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications from MBA, which decreased 2.7 percent from one week earlier. We’ve also received the always volatile Durable goods orders for March (+2.6 percent). Later today brings some Treasury auctions that will be headlined by $30 billion 2-year FRNs and $70 billion 5-year notes. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices slightly worse than Tuesday night, the 10-year yielding 4.63 after closing yesterday at 4.60 percent, and the 2-year is at 4.94.
Employment
“Join a premier, mid-sized independent mortgage banker and award-winning lender as a Financial Controller and key member of our Senior Management Team. Recognized by National Mortgage News as one of the best companies to work for, we operate branches along the East Coast, and in Texas, with plans for strategic growth and expansion in 2024 and beyond. The Financial Controller develops and implements the overall financial strategy by overseeing accounting and cash management, driving the company’s financial planning, and managing the accounting staff within the department. The ideal candidate will have 7+ years of experience in mortgage banking and a strong background in accounting and financial management. If you are prepared to play a pivotal role as a Financial Controller in a corporate culture that is dynamic, innovative and collaborative, please email Chrisman LLC’s Anjelica Nixt to forward your confidential note. Remote or Washington DC metropolitan based.”
Figure Technology Solutions announced the appointment of Michael Tannenbaum as Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors, effective immediately. Michael comes over after stints as Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer, and Chief Business officer at Brex, and Chief Revenue Officer at SoFi. Mike Cagney, Co-Founder, and previous Chief Executive Officer of Figure, has assumed the role of Executive Chairman. (The appointment of Mr. Tannenbaum follows the launch of Figure’s DART System, a combined lien filing and eNote registry service, and the company’s AI and machine learning-powered borrower-facing chatbot, which improves customer support efficiency and further streamlines the HELOC origination process.)
A&D Mortgage announced the appointment of Satish Vishwakarma as its new Servicing Manager where he will be responsible for overseeing the day-to-day operations of the Mortgage Servicing group, ensuring the successful management of mortgage servicing teams, and leading efforts to streamline operations, enhance quality, and reduce costs.
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Were the good old days really all that good? Sure, when mortgage rates were below 3%, it was a lot cheaper to purchase a house, but we were also in the middle of a global pandemic.
At the start of 2021, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 2.65%, according to data from Freddie Mac. During the homebuying boom of 2020 and 2021, the number of borrowers taking out new mortgages reached a more than two-decade high.
Over the past two years, a combination of high mortgage rates, low housing inventory and sluggish wage growth has crippled affordability for homebuyers.
While many are holding out for mortgage rates to fall, it’s unlikely we’ll see 2% mortgage rates any time soon. In fact, experts hope we don’t.
A return to that kind of low-rate environment would indicate major problems in the economy, said Alex Thomas, senior research analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting.
Mortgage rates typically fall during a recession. But a recession also comes with widespread unemployment, increased debt, investment losses and overall financial instability.
In today’s housing market, homebuyers should have realistic expectations. Experts predict mortgage rates to inch closer to 6% by the end of the year as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates. Record-low mortgage rates aren’t in the cards again, and that’s likely for the best.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
How did mortgage rates drop below 3% in the first place?
Economic uncertainty and market volatility — whether during an election cycle or a pandemic — impact the direction of mortgage rates. It’s often said that bad news for the economy is good news for mortgage rates, and vice versa.
A significant lever for mortgage rates is the federal funds rate, which the Fed keeps low when it needs to stimulate economic growth. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed slashed that benchmark rate to zero to bolster the economy. When there were signs of recovery in 2015, the central bank started raising interest rates again, sending mortgage rates into the 4% to 5% range until 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic sparked another economic crisis. To incentivize people to borrow and spend money — and avoid a prolonged recession — the Fed once again cut the federal funds rate to near zero and pumped money into the economy by purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage interest rates fell quickly, bottoming out in the mid-2% range in 2021.
But the combination of supply shocks, record-low rates and an extreme increase in money supply from government stimulus helped send prices way up, according to Erin Sykes, chief economist at NestSeekers International.
In early 2022, the Fed had a new problem on its hands: inflation.
💰 Federal Reserve monetary policy
In a recession, the Federal Reserve tries to spur economic growth through quantitative easing, a monetary policy that consists of cutting the federal funds rate to encourage lending and borrowing to consumers, and increasing its purchase of government-backed bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
If the Fed needs to slow the economy down and reduce the money supply in financial markets, it does opposite: quantitative tightening. By increasing the federal funds rate and tapering its bond-buying programs, the central bank raises the cost of borrowing money, which puts upward pressure on longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates.
What caused mortgage rates to surge again?
With prices surging in 2022, the Fed’s main tool was to adjust interest rates, making credit more expensive and disincentivizing borrowing. As a result of a string of aggressive rate hikes, the federal funds rate went from near zero to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, where it’s remained since last summer. Average mortgage rates skyrocketed, peaking past 8% last October.
Although inflation has gone down, the Fed isn’t ready to start lowering rates just yet. The central bank would like to see evidence of a weaker economy (including consistently lower inflation and higher unemployment) before making any adjustments to its monetary policy.
📈 How the Fed impacts mortgage rates
Though the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it controls the federal funds rate, a short-term interest rate that determines what banks charge each other to borrow money. When the federal funds rate moves up, it impacts longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates, as banks raise interest rates on home loans to keep their profit margins intact.
Why won’t mortgage rates move toward 2% again?
Economists and housing market experts agree that mortgage rates will fall over the next several years, but not below 3%.
When mortgage rates hit their record lows just a few years ago, the federal funds rate was near zero. As the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, the plan is to do so slowly and incrementally. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects the federal funds rate will take only modest adjustments down.
In the most recent policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that the federal funds rate “will not go back down to the very low levels that we saw” during the financial crisis, suggesting that the economy can adapt to a more “neutral” benchmark rate range of between 2.4% to 3.8% in the long run, i.e., less tightening, but not too much easing from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%.
The Fed would be forced to lower rates close to zero only if there were a dramatic economic shock, such as a pandemic or recession, said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. In that case, if the central bank started purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities again, there’s a possibility mortgage rates could return to those record lows.
However, without such an upheaval, there’s a floor under how low mortgage rates will go, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll ever drop to their 2020-2021 levels.
“With the Federal Reserve ending quantitative easing and stepping out of the market for mortgage-backed securities, rates will settle at a much higher level,” said Matthew Walsh, housing economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Moody’s Analytics predicts mortgage rates will stabilize between 6% and 6.5% over the next few years. That’s high compared with the recent past, yet it’s a historically normal range for mortgage rates.
How can homebuyers adapt to higher mortgage rates?
The housing market is frustrating, but prospective homebuyers are starting to come to terms with this new reality. Following the pandemic, people are moving on with their lives, whether that’s building a family, relocating, downsizing or upgrading.
For some households, that means making room in their budget for a monthly mortgage payment at a 6% or 7% rate.
When you monitor mortgage rate movement, you’re usually looking at national averages determined by weekly rate information provided by lenders. While those rates give a picture of the “typical” mortgage rate, that’s not necessarily the rate you’ll get when applying for a mortgage.
It’s possible to get a better deal on your mortgage.
To qualify for a mortgage, most lenders require you to have a minimum credit score of 620, but lenders offer the lowest mortgage rates to consumers with excellent credit scores, around 740 and above.
You might also consider purchasing mortgage points, also known as discount points. This is an extra fee you pay upfront in exchange for a lower interest rate. Each mortgage point typically costs 1% of the purchase price of a home and will lower your mortgage rate by 0.25%.
A shorter-term loan like a 15-year or 10-year mortgage will have a lower interest rate than a 30-year fixed mortgage. Your monthly payments will be higher with a shorter-term loan because you’re paying the loan off in less time, but you’ll save big on interest.
Buying a home is likely the biggest transaction you’ll make in your lifetime. Regardless of the market, carefully assess your needs and what you can afford.
Average mortgage rates inched lower yesterday. But all that did was wipe out last Friday’s similarly tiny rise.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might barely budge. However, these early mini-trends often alter direction or speed as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.302%
7.353%
+0.01
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.757%
6.836%
+0.01
30-year fixed FHA
7.064%
7.111%
-0.07
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.888%
8.036%
+0.12
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.199%
7.257%
+0.05
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.663%
6.737%
+0.06
30-year fixed VA
7.292%
7.332%
+0.01
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
This morning’s Financial Times reports, “While the base case remains a reduction in borrowing costs, the options market shows a 20% probability of an increase.” That means most investors think the Federal Reserve will cut general interest rates this year, but they reckon there’s a 20% chance of the central bank actually hiking them. That’s new and scary.
Although the Fed doesn’t directly determine mortgage rates it has a huge influence on the bond market that does. And I very much doubt mortgage rates will fall consistently before the Fed signals that a cut in general interest rates is imminent. And a Fed rate hike is likely to send mortgage rates much higher: maybe back up to 8% or beyond.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged down to 4.6% from 4.64%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices decreased to $81.59 from $82.06 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices fell to $2,333 from $2,350 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — climbed to 40 from 33 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or close to unchanged. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Today
This morning’s two April purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) will likely be good for mortgage rates. These “flashes” (initial readings and subject to revision) are both from S&P.
Here are this morning’s actual numbers in bold, alongside the prepublication consensus forecasts, according to MarketWatch, together with the March actual figures:
Services PMI — 50.9 actual; 52 expected; 51.7 in March
Manufacturing PMI — 51.1 actual; 52 expected; 51.9 in March
You can see that the PMIs were worse than expected, which is typically good news for mortgage rates.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow’s durable goods orders for March rarely affect mortgage rates. And they’d need to contain some pretty shocking data to do so tomorrow.
Markets are expecting those orders to have risen by 2.6% in March compared to a 1.3% increase in February. They’ll probably need to be significantly higher than 2.% to exert upward pressure on mortgage rates and appreciably lower to push them downward.
The rest of this week
Nothing has changed since yesterday concerning economic reports due on Thursday and Friday. So, I’ll repeat what I wrote yesterday:
We’re due the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March quarter on Thursday. And that could have a larger effect than PMIs and durable goods orders, depending on the gap between expectations and actuals.
But Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for March is this week’s star report. That’s the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation. And it could certainly affect mortgage rates, possibly appreciably.
The next meeting of the Fed’s rate-setting committee is scheduled to start on Apr. 30 and last two days. So, the PCE price index will be the last inflation report it sees before making decisions.
And index that shows inflation cooling could change the mood at that meeting. True, it’s vanishingly unlikely that a cut to general interest rates will be unveiled on May 1 no matter what.
But a PCE price index that shows inflation cooling could help the Fed to move forward with cuts earlier than expected, which should cause mortgage rates to fall. Unfortunately, one that suggests inflation remains hot or is getting hotter could send those rates higher.
I’ll brief you more fully on each potentially significant report on the day before it’s published.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Apr. 18 report put that same weekly average at 7.1%, up from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Mar. 19 and the MBA’s on Apr. 18.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.7%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
MBA
6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Taking that much needed vacation while on a debt payoff journey may seem impossible, but it doesn’t have to be. By planning a vacation that suits your budget and keeps goals on track, you can transport yourself somewhere new and recharge.
It’s an approach Jasmine Gillians, a leave of absence specialist and YouTuber at the channel Jazzie RayShaune, is taking with her husband. On their second debt payoff journey, the Kansas City, Missouri-based couple is working on eliminating around $64,000 in remaining debt. Previously, they took the stricter path of staying home all the time and avoiding spending on extras. She sums it up as “miserable.”
“We both work full time and we want to be able to get a breath of fresh air, but we also wanted to be mindful that we still have debt to pay off,” she says. “We like to get out, we like to enjoy ourselves, but we just realized that we can still do that on a good budget.”
Time isn’t promised, especially when it comes to vacationing with elderly family members or if starting a new job that won’t accrue paid time off for a while. When deciding whether to travel, consider the emotional and monetary cost. Choose the option of no regrets that allows you to stay true to your debt payoff plan.
Review the budget
Revisit debit and credit card statements to know where money is going. Know your numbers, including income, expenses and debt, suggests Tiffany Grant, a North Carolina-based accredited financial counselor. Understand how much to contribute monthly to pay off debts by your deadline, and prevent setbacks by building an emergency fund.
Use this information to see if it’s also possible to start a vacation fund. If money is tight, consider whether focusing only on debt makes more sense.
“If you are not able to make your payments — and like not even the minimum payments — and you’re running in the negative every month, then you probably shouldn’t be traveling,” says Grant. “Or if you do, something that’s super low cost.”
Also consider if it’s possible to cut back in certain areas to accelerate savings. Instead of taking the strict approach from the previous debt payoff journey, Gillians found ways to trim expenses to allow for more flexibility with spending.
“Things like a date night may not be dinner and a movie, it may be movie night at home,” she says. “We were already the majority of the time working out at home, so we canceled our gym memberships.”
For added savings, Gillians says she also switched to cheaper providers for things like streaming services. With these adjustments, Gillians was able to plan a vacation to Destin, Florida, to celebrate her husband’s 50th birthday.
Make a plan
Brainstorm destinations and research potential costs for transportation, accommodations, activities, food and possibly foreign transaction fees. Also leave a cushion in that vacation budget for unforeseen expenses.
Consider these options to find savings:
Redeeming rewards. On a debt payoff journey, it’s not ideal to chase credit card rewards, but using those already earned may help defray the costs of a vacation. Rewards earned through a loyalty program may also chip away at costs. Gillians says she was able to save $40 on her trip with rewards earned through Vrbo.
Exploring free or low-cost activities at your destination. Think about ways to experience a destination on a budget. For instance, consider going on a free walking tour (many cities offer these), exploring a national park on a free day or taking in some culture with free museum admission. If your budget permits, you may also get the resort experience without the high price tag. Companies like ResortPass allow you to pay for use of a hotel’s spa, pool or gym for the day. If you’re with a large group, though, these costs can add up.
Cooking your meals. By buying groceries outside of populated tourist areas and making your own meals, whether at a hotel or vacation rental, you’ll save money versus eating at restaurants. If that’s not for you, build dining expenses into the vacation fund.
Being flexible with accommodations. Where you stay depends on your preferences and needs. Weigh a variety of options, including camp sites, hostels, vacation rentals that you can split with a group, and last-minute hotel deals. A “mystery” hotel deal through a service like Priceline or Hotwire can save on costs, but the key details of the hotel are secret until you book it. You’ll see only the price, number of stars, guest rating, limited photos, a general overview of the location and a list of amenities.
Compromising on transportation. Make travel more affordable by staying local or traveling during the off season. Websites like Going, Fare Deal Alert and The Flight Deal can alert you to cheap flights. In addition to the cost of flying or driving to your destination, factor in the price of transportation once you arrive. If it’s safe to take, public transit may provide lower costs than rideshares, taxis, rental cars or other options.
Also, consider other ways to save. “I save gift cards that I get for Christmas and birthdays,” says Gillians. For her upcoming trip, she says she used three airline gift cards to save $300 on flights.
Checking for discounts. You might qualify for discounts based on employment, a credit card or another option. If you have a AAA or warehouse club membership, for example, you may be eligible for discounts on rental cars, hotels, or tickets to sporting events and theme parks. Some credit cards also provide discounts when you use them to shop with specific merchants. If you can pay off the purchase in full and avoid derailing your debt payoff journey, this option could allow you to save on dining, hotels and more.
As the latest season of the hit reality competition series “The Circle” hit our screens, we couldn’t help but notice that something looks a little bit different.
And no, we’re not talking about the new AI bot that has entered the chat (sorry, Max).
The reality show has a brand new building, a whole new series of colorful apartments, and a fresh filming location set on American soil — stepping away from the UK filming location where all international versions of the dating series have been filmed up until now.
Season 6 sees contenders take residence in a Midtown Atlanta apartment building, with each of their units meticulously designed by art director Karen Weber, a reality series vet who also worked on America’s Next Top Model.
And she took extra care in designing each apartment, as well as the communal spaces the contestants get to enjoy while filming the Netflix production.
So let’s take a closer look at the Atlanta building that now houses the popular series, the colorful The Circle apartments and the design principles that brought them to life, and how you too can book a stay here — though your apartment might look a tad different than those the contestants live in.
Like Fancy Pants Homes’ content? Be sure to follow us on Google News.
The Circle building is now the Sonder Midtown South, in Atlanta
Unlike previous seasons and all other international versions of the series — which all filmed in Northern England, at the 206-unit Adelphi Wharf building in Salford, UK, right outside of Manchester — Season 6 takes place stateside in Atlanta, Georgia.
Offering a fresh setting for the drama to unfold, the Sonder Midtown South apartment building at 126 Renaissance Pkwy NE in Midtown Atlanta serves as the main filming location for the hit Netflix series.
Designing the colorful apartments
Art director Karen Weber led the charge in designing the vibrant new apartments, housed in the Sonder Midtown South building.
With communal spaces like a retro launderette and a rooftop courtyard, Weber aimed to create distinct yet cohesive living environments for the players, each measuring approximately 1,200 square feet.
And this was no easy feat, especially while trying to emulate the bold, colorful aesthetics the series is already known for.
Each apartment has its own theme and decor
From bold color palettes to whimsical themes inspired by Barbie and Wes Anderson, the transformed spaces offer a Pinterest-worthy aesthetic that’s sure to catch the eye of viewers.
The apartments, given names like Glamour Room and Artist Loft, were curated with furniture and decor sourced from vintage shops and salvage yards around Atlanta, lending them a bespoke feel.
For some spaces, art director Karen Weber aimed to create “really bright high energy,” while other rooms were meant to feel “more adult, laid-back, and [a] little more restful,” she shared on Netflix’s blog. After all, the players actually had to live in the spaces throughout filming, so comfort is key.
And while the budget was the same for each apartment in the new The Circle building, creating a variety of spaces and aesthetics is paramount to the show’s success.
“Giving producers that kind of a range [of types of spaces] lets them figure out who fits where,” Weber added.
Design inspiration for fans of the series
But in Weber’s eyes, the apartments aren’t just for the players who inhabit them.
She also wanted viewers watching along to imagine themselves in the living spaces and perhaps inspire them to transform their own — either by stenciling something on a wall or spray-painting fish scales on a bathroom cabinet.
“I try to do a couple of DIY projects in each space that could be done by someone at home,” she says.
Re-designing 10 more apartments for the next contestants
As if Weber didn’t have her work cut out for her, as soon as she was done setting up the apartments for Season 6, she had to do it all again in preparation for the already-announced Season 7. For the upcoming season, another 10 new apartments had to be designed from the ground up.
“It’s the sandcastle theory, because you build this beautiful thing and then you let it all just get washed away and it’s done,” she says. “The rooms have their moment and then you have to move on.”
You can stay at the Atlanta building where The Circle filmed
While fans won’t be able to book a stay in the exact apartments seen on-screen, they too can book a stay in the building featured on the show whenever visiting Atlanta.
The Sonder Midtown South offers sleek and modern accommodations with amenities like a fitness center, outdoor grill, and in-unit laundry. And its colorful, imaginative makeover for The Circle only adds to the building’s appeal.
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The recent rise of the average long-term U.S. mortgage rate, which poses a new obstacle to aspiring homeowners hoping to purchase a property during this homebuying season, could have dramatic consequences on the country’s housing market.
The national weekly average for 30-year mortgages, the most popular in the nation, was 6.88 percent as of April 11, according to data from the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp., better known as Freddie Mac. That was 0.06 of a percentage point higher than a week before and up 0.61 compared to a year before. The national average for 15-year mortgages was 6.16 percent, up 0.1 of a percentage point compared to the previous week and 0.62 compared to a year before.
Read more: How to Get a Mortgage
On Monday, experts monitoring mortgage rates on a daily basis noted that the national average for 30-year fixed mortgages reached 7.44 percent—the highest they’ve been so far this year and close to the 23-year weekly record of 7.79 percent reached on October 25, 2023. On Monday, the 15-year mortgage rate was 6.85 percent. At its peak on October 25, 2023, it had reached 7.03 percent.
“Big one-day jump,” commented journalist Lance Lambert on X, formerly known as Twitter. “The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticks up to 7.44 percent. New high for 2024.”
The rise in mortgage rates comes as homebuying season, a time when the number of homes listed for sale increases, is heating up. This climb in inventory starts in spring and normally peaks in summer before declining as the weather gets colder, marking one of the busiest times of the year for home sales. But higher mortgage rates could have an early chilling effect on the market.
Read more: Compare Top Mortgage Lenders
The median monthly U.S. housing payment hit an all-time high of $2,747 during the four weeks ending April 7, up 11 percent from a year earlier, according to a report from real estate brokerage Redfin last week. It noted that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, then at 6.82 percent, was more than double pandemic-era lows.
There’s not much hope that mortgage rates will come down soon, as the U.S. Labor Department said last week that inflation has risen faster than expected last month, at 3.5 percent over the 12 months to March. That was up from 3.2 percent in February.
“For homebuyers, the latest CPI [consumer price index] report means mortgage rates will stay higher for longer because it makes the Fed unlikely to cut interest rates in the next few months,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Housing costs are likely to continue going up for the near future, but persistently high mortgage rates and rising supply could cool home-price growth by the end of the year, taking some pressure off costs.”
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, voiced concern last week over “persistent inflationary pressures” and said the bank was prepared for “a very broad range of interest rates, from 2 percent to 8 percent or even more, with equally wide-ranging economic outcomes.”
While the jump in mortgage rates appears modest, it makes a huge difference for borrowers, who might end up paying hundreds of dollars a month more on top of what’s already one of the most significant expenses in their lives.
Many might decide that they can’t afford to buy a home—which is what happened when mortgage rates suddenly skyrocketed between late 2022 and early 2023 as a result of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate-hiking campaign.
Between late summer 2022 and spring 2023, a drop in demand caused by the unaffordability of buying a home led to a modest price correction of the housing market. But prices have since climbed back due to the combination of pent-up demand and historic low inventory.
While the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, these are hugely influenced by the central bank’s decision to hike or cut interest rates. The Fed left rates unchanged in March and is considered unlikely to cut them this month considering the latest data on inflation.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.