Investors evaluating precious metals often ask: gold vs silver, which is better for investors? In this comparison, discover the investment merits of gold’s stability and silver’s industrial relevance, geared towards helping you decide which metal suits your financial strategy. Without leaning towards one or the other, this article presents a balanced view to inform your choice.
Key Takeaways
Gold and silver serve as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, with gold mainly being an investment asset while silver has significant industrial applications, impacting their price volatility and investment suitability.
Gold is revered as a safe haven asset, attracting investment during economic turmoil and serving as an inflation hedge, while silver’s dual role in industry and investment sectors offers growth potential and affordability.
Investors should consider precious metals within a diversified portfolio and can choose between physical metals, ETFs, or mining stocks, each with its own benefits and risks, and should evaluate after-inflation returns and personal financial goals to decide between gold and silver.
Gold and silver, the titans of precious metals, have long served as a reliable store of value and an effective inflation hedge. While gold primarily functions as an investment asset, offering potential for significant returns to those with larger capital, silver boasts an additional industrial role, broadening its appeal. However, investing in these precious metals isn’t as simple as stashing bars or coins in a safe. It involves dealing with price volatility and aligning your investment with long-term goals.
Adopting a buy-and-hold approach may serve investors best over the long term when investing in gold and silver. But why? It’s because the prices of these metals are shaped by a vast array of factors. Geopolitical issues, economic turmoil, and demands in the industrial sector all play a part in the daily dance of gold and silver prices. Understanding these factors can help you make informed decisions about when and how much to invest.
So why consider precious metals as part of your investment portfolio? They offer a unique combination of benefits:
Gold, with its reputation as a safe haven, attracts those looking for stability amidst market chaos
Silver, with its dual role in the industrial and investment sectors, offers an affordable entry point for investors with smaller capital
Both metals provide a robust way to diversify your portfolio and protect against inflation.
Understanding Gold’s Position as a Safe Haven Asset
Gold has long been a symbol of stability and security in the financial world. Its glittering history spans centuries, maintaining its value even in times of economic turmoil. It’s no wonder that in periods of global uncertainty or financial crises, investors often flock to gold, buoying its value and cementing its reputation as a safe haven.
One of gold’s most notable features is its role as an inflation hedge. As the cost of living increases, inflation hedge gold has shown a remarkable ability to preserve the real value of assets. This unique characteristic comes from how gold’s supply growth aligns with long-term global economic growth, helping to maintain its value during inflationary periods. This resilience, coupled with the tendency of investors to shift towards gold as a safe haven during inflation, can drive up its demand and price.
Given these factors, it’s clear why gold holds a revered place in the financial market. Whether you’re looking for a buffer against economic instability or an asset that can protect your buying power in the face of rising prices, gold stands firm as a reliable safe haven asset.
Silver’s Dual Role: Industrial Demand and Investment Segment
While gold may steal the spotlight for its luster and stability, silver plays a shining role of its own. Apart from being an investment asset, silver’s widespread industrial applications can drive up its price and enhance its investment appeal. In 2023, industrial applications reached a new record high, with photovoltaics usage increasing by a staggering 64%. China’s industrial demand for silver surged by 44% in the same year, predominantly driven by growth in green applications such as:
photovoltaics
solar panels
batteries
electronics
medical devices
These industrial applications highlight the versatility and value of both silver and silver bullion coins as an investment.
Due to its significant industrial use and affordable price point, silver is an accessible option for investors with smaller amounts of capital. However, the silver lining has a cloud. During economic downturns, silver’s industrial use can result in a drop in demand and a corresponding price drop. This volatility underscores the need for investors to consider their risk tolerance when investing in silver.
Despite its volatility, the forecast for silver demand in 2024 predicts a growth of 2%, with industrial production expected to achieve new records. This projected growth, along with silver’s role in portfolio diversification and potential for future price appreciation, suggests that silver’s investment appeal may shine brighter in the future.
Including gold and silver in a diversified portfolio can enhance performance during market volatility and inflation. Financial advisors often suggest allocating 5-10% of an investment portfolio to commodities like gold and silver for diversification purposes. The logic is simple: gold offers diversification due to its historically low correlation with other financial assets such as stocks and bonds.
The inclusion of gold and silver, primarily an investment asset class, which unlike an asset produces cash flow, can act as an uncorrelated asset relative to equities, serving to diminish the total volatility of the portfolio.
Some benefits of including silver in your portfolio are:
Silver has significant industrial applications
It is positively correlated with periods of economic growth
Anticipated growth in areas such as renewable energy and artificial intelligence suggests an expanding demand for silver.
However, it’s crucial for investors to consider the following factors when determining the fit of precious metals within their investment strategies:
Potential costs for secure storage of precious metals
The speculative nature of precious metals
Due diligence and careful consideration of your financial circumstances
As with any investment decision, due diligence and careful consideration of your financial circumstances are key, including addressing portfolio risk management requirements.
While investing in physical precious metals has its appeal, precious metal mining stocks offer an intriguing alternative. Gold stocks provide a leveraged play that can outperform physical gold when prices rise, offering substantial potential for capital gains. The reason? Mining stocks do not just reflect the value of the precious metal. They also include the prospects of mining companies themselves.
Compared to physical gold, gold stocks offer several advantages:
They are more liquid and can be easily bought and sold.
They can provide additional income through dividends paid by established, profitable mining companies.
Investors can benefit from the expansion of mining operations and reap profits from significant new gold discoveries.
These advantages make gold stocks an enticing option for those looking to diversify their portfolio.
Moreover, by choosing gold mining stocks, investors can avoid the extra costs associated with the storage and security of physical gold. This can make gold stocks a more convenient and cost-effective alternative for investors who want exposure to gold without the logistical challenges of owning physical metal.
Physical Bullion vs. ETFs: Choosing Your Investment Vehicle
When considering precious metals as part of your investment strategy, it’s essential to explore all available options. Physical bullion and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) present two distinct investment vehicles, each with its own set of advantages and challenges. Gold ETFs, for instance, offer enhanced liquidity compared to physical gold, allowing investors to quickly buy and sell shares without facing the logistical challenges tied to physical transactions of gold.
Investing in gold ETFs can also be more cost-effective over time. Investors do not have to deal with the costs of purchasing and maintaining physical gold, and the responsibilities of securing and insuring the physical gold are professionally managed by the fund. However, it’s crucial to remember that the value of shares in gold ETFs may not track the price of gold precisely, as the fund’s expenses could slightly erode the value of these shares over time.
On the other hand, investing in physical gold comes with its own set of considerations. Apart from the allure of owning a tangible asset, investors must account for costs such as storage fees, insurance, and potentially higher dealer premiums over the market price. Additionally, purchasing physical gold requires vigilance due to the risks of scams, necessitating transactions with reputable dealers and possible appraisal costs, which add to the overall investment expense.
Evaluating After-Inflation Returns: Gold vs. Silver
When it comes to returns, it’s crucial to look beyond the nominal figures and consider the real value – the after-inflation returns. And in this regard, the performance of gold and silver may not be as glittering as one might expect. However, these precious metals have historically provided a hedge against inflation, offering returns that outpace inflation over certain periods. Here are some key points to consider:
Gold and silver can serve as a portfolio diversifier, helping to reduce risk.
Silver, due to its abundance, may have less upside potential compared to gold.
Both gold and silver have historically provided a hedge against inflation.
While the after-inflation returns of gold and silver may not always be stellar, considering past investment product performance, they can still play a valuable role in a well-diversified investment portfolio, remaining steady amid inflation uncertainties.
Gold tends to perform well during economic downturns and protections against inflation; studies confirm a positive correlation between the rising cost of living and the value of both precious metals. This ability to preserve wealth becomes particularly valuable during periods of high inflation, increasing their attractiveness as part of an investment strategy.
While the after-inflation returns for gold and silver may not be highly impressive when compared to other investments, rising inflation typically enhances their attractiveness as part of an investment strategy. This context underscores the importance of considering multiple factors – including inflation, market conditions, and personal financial goals – when evaluating the potential returns on your investment in gold and silver.
Making the Decision: Should You Buy Gold or Silver?
So, armed with all this knowledge, how do you decide between gold and silver? The answer isn’t one-size-fits-all. Investors should assess their individual financial circumstances and objectives when considering gold or silver investments, as the suitability can greatly vary depending on personal financial situations and goals.
The choice between gold or silver as a better investment option hinges largely on the individual’s risk tolerance and comfort with each investment strategy. It’s crucial to remember that while both precious metals can serve as hedges against inflation and economic downturns, they also present unique risks and opportunities. For instance, gold’s role as a safe haven asset may appeal to those seeking stability, while silver’s industrial applications and lower price point could attract investors looking for growth and affordability.
Before making the final call, it’s advisable to seek the guidance of a financial advisor to evaluate the appropriateness of gold or silver investments for your portfolio. Additionally, conducting independent research into gold and silver investment strategies can help you make a well-informed decision. Armed with knowledge and guided by your financial goals, you are well-equipped to make the golden (or silver) choice that’s right for you.
Summary
When it comes to precious metals, gold and silver stand as powerful contenders. Their unique characteristics offer distinct advantages for investors, making them an appealing inclusion in a diversified portfolio. Gold, with its safe-haven status, serves as a buffer against economic instability, while silver, with its industrial applications and affordable price, presents growth opportunities and accessibility to investors.
Ultimately, the decision to invest in gold, silver, precious metal mining stocks, or any other asset class should be guided by a thorough understanding of your financial goals, risk tolerance, and market conditions. It’s not about choosing the shiniest option, but the one that aligns best with your investment strategy and financial aspirations. So, whether you’re drawn to the allure of gold or the versatility of silver, remember – knowledge is the most precious asset of all.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors influence the price of gold and silver?
The prices of gold and silver are influenced by various factors, including global economic stability, inflation rates, currency values, interest rates, and mining supply. Geopolitical events and investor sentiment can also cause significant price fluctuations.
Can I invest in gold and silver without owning physical metals?
Yes, investors can gain exposure to gold and silver without owning physical metals by investing in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mining stocks, or mutual funds that focus on precious metals.
How does the industrial demand for silver affect its investment value?
The industrial demand for silver, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors, can significantly affect its investment value. As demand for industrial applications rises, the price of silver may increase, potentially offering capital gains to investors.
What risks are associated with investing in precious metals?
Investing in precious metals carries risks such as market volatility, liquidity issues, and potential losses if prices decline. Additionally, physical metal investments may incur costs for storage and insurance.
Are there any tax considerations when investing in gold and silver?
Yes, there are tax considerations when investing in gold and silver. Capital gains on precious metals may be subject to taxation, and the tax treatment may differ depending on the investment vehicle (e.g., physical metals, ETFs, stocks). A tax professional can help you with this.
How do geopolitical events impact gold and silver prices?
Geopolitical events can have a significant impact on gold and silver prices. Uncertainty and instability often lead investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold, which can drive up prices. Conversely, positive geopolitical developments can reduce demand for safe havens, potentially lowering prices.
What is the best way to track the prices of gold and silver?
Investors can track the prices of gold and silver through financial news websites, commodity exchanges, and market data services. Many investment platforms also provide real-time pricing information for precious metals.
How do central bank policies affect gold and silver investments?
Central bank policies, such as interest rate adjustments and quantitative easing, can affect the value of currencies and influence investor sentiment towards precious metals. Policies that lead to currency devaluation can increase the attractiveness of gold and silver as a store of value.
Interest rates care about quite a few different things, but inflation and Fed policy are two of the biggest considerations. One of the Fed’s favorite ways to track progress on inflation is the PCE price index which comes out every month, but also every quarter.
Oddly enough, the quarterly comes out a day before the monthly data on the 4 days of the year where a new quarter is reported. Today was one of those days and the quarterly data showed a big surge in inflation. The implication is that there’s a much bigger risk that tomorrow’s monthly inflation number also proves to be higher than expected.
Bonds/rates don’t like inflation to begin with, but it’s even more problematic when it has a direct bearing on Fed policy decisions. This particular news is seen as pushing the Fed even farther into the future for its first rate cut of this cycle. In other words, both the data, and the Fed implications were bad news for rates today.
The average lender jumped immediately higher by roughly an eighth of a point. This brings the top tier conventional 30yr rate index over 7.5% for the first time since November 13th. Tomorrow could add insult to injury, but it’s also worth noting that markets are expecting worse news now, so if it’s only a little worse, the injury might not be that bad.
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) have settled on new energy-efficiency standards for the construction of new single-family and multifamily homes. This fulfills a requirement laid out in a 2007 law that directs the departments to adopt the most recently published energy-efficiency standards following reviews by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and HUD itself.
The “Adoption of Energy Efficiency Standards for New Construction of HUD- and USDA-Financed Housing” was published on Friday in the Federal Register, and will go into effect on May 28.
The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, signed into law by President George W. Bush that December, featured a statutory requirement directing HUD and USDA to “jointly adopt the most recently published energy efficiency standards for single family and multifamily homes, subject to an energy efficiency determination by the [DOE] and a cost-benefit housing ‘affordability and availability’ test by HUD,” according to an announcement from the Federal Housing Administration (FHA).
A preliminary determination was published by HUD and USDA in May 2023, based on energy-efficiency standards developed by the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) and the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC).
These standards will “lower energy costs for owners of newly-constructed homes, benefitting homeowners, FHA, and communities,” the announcement stated. “HUD expects this to be particularly beneficial for low-income and rural homeowners who typically face disproportionately high energy cost burdens.”
The implementation timeline varies based on the type and location of new construction. For FHA-sponsored single-family homes, new construction must comply with the 2021 IECC if building permit applications are submitted 18 months or later following the May 28 effective date.
For new construction in persistent rural poverty areas, as defined by the USDA Economic Research Service, compliance with the 2021 IECC will be required 24 months after the May 28 effective date. Within the next month, USDA will “publish a map of rural areas covered by this extension no later than 30 days after the effective date of this notice.”
FHA will also publish a mortgagee letter with additional implementation details for its single-family programs sometime prior to the May 28 effective date.
This announcement in the latest in a series of actions HUD has announced in pursuit of greater climate resiliency. On Thursday, HUD detailed a slew of actions and initiatives it has undertaken to bolster climate resiliency while supporting green housing initiatives that stem from Inflation Reduction Act funding. It also recently announced plans to combat the effects of extreme heat.
Mortgage rates continued to rise for the week ending April 25. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.23% APR, up seven basis points from the previous week’s average, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. (A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.)
Rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans have been hovering in the general neighborhood of 7% for the past year-plus, causing considerable pain for home buyers. The rise of mortgage rates in recent years has drawn lots of attention — and ire. As buyers attempt to wrestle their way into affordable homes, it feels like interest rates are definitely the storyline villain. But are rates the actual villain?
Let’s take a little journey back to the last time the U.S. was in a comparable rate environment, roughly winter 2000 to spring 2002. In April 2002, J. Lo is atop the charts. Tiger Woods is becoming the third golfer to win back-to-back Masters tournaments. “The Scorpion King,” starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, is a hit at the box office. And interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are at 7%.
Now, here we are, 22 years later. Jennifer Lopez’s latest album came out in February. Tiger’s playing in his 26th Masters. Dwayne Johnson hasn’t been in any movies yet this year, but The Rock did main event WrestleMania. And 30-year fixed rates? Yeah, they’re back at 7%.
With so much that’s oddly the same, let’s talk about why today’s 7% rates hit different. It’s not just because that slang would have been total nonsense to someone in 2002.
Explore mortgages today and get started on your homeownership goals
Get personalized rates. Your lender matches are just a few questions away.
Won’t affect your credit score
Since April’s not over yet, we can’t look at median home prices for the month. But we can look at data for March 2024, which just came out. Last month, the median existing home price was $393,500, according to the National Association of Realtors.
You might want to cover your eyes for this one. In March 2002, the median existing home sale price was $158,200, per the NAR.
OK, you might say, but what about inflation? Well, if we take that March 2002 median price and put it in 2024 dollars, we get $276,347. So it’s not just inflation, or that a dollar doesn’t buy as much as it used to. It’s that housing prices, particularly in the 2020s, have risen much faster than inflation overall.
Let’s look at how those prices would translate to costs at these two different points in time. We’ll assume a 7% mortgage rate, a 10% down payment, and to keep things a bit neater, we’ll set aside additional housing costs like property taxes and insurance and just look at principal and interest. At 2002 prices, monthly principal and interest would be $947. At today’s prices? That’ll be $2,356.
It’s not that the U.S. has never seen 7% mortgage interest rates before. It absolutely has, and it’s seen way worse than that — the all-time high was over 18% in 1981. What’s new is the combination of these interest rates and super-high home prices. With the median home price up 18.9% over the last three years, rates may not be great, but it feels like prices are the actual villain.
What’s a home buyer to do? Possibly look to new construction. While NAR data shows sales of existing homes were down in March, U.S. Census Bureau numbers find that sales of new homes were up. New builds may offer a friendlier environment for buyers. Home builders can offer buyer incentives like rate buydowns — and unlike many home sellers, they aren’t faced with also trying to buy a home in this market.
Explore mortgages today and get started on your homeownership goals
Get personalized rates. Your lender matches are just a few questions away.
It’s a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement. At face value the headlines make a better case for lower rates with GDP at 1.6 vs 2.5, wholesale inventories missing big and Jobless Claims not too far from forecast. But the devil is in the details–specifically, the details inside the quarterly GDP data. GDP will be reported 3 times for Q1. Today was the first of those and as such, the PCE price data component offers a bit of a sneak peek at tomorrow’s PCE inflation data.
GDP is not a hugely important report, but PCE inflation is. With all that in mind, the PCE component in today’s data was 3.7 vs 3.4. In a world where a 0.1 beat/miss can cause massive volatility for the bond market, that’s a huge beat. Bonds will likely be feeling extra defensive until and unless tomorrow’s Core PCE number tells a slightly less dramatic story.
Stocks haven’t loved the data either, due to the implications for the Fed’s rate outlook. The following isn’t the pattern normally associated with stocks and bonds, but it is prevalent at times when the market is actively refining its outlook for the Fed Funds Rate.
In the slightly bigger picture, this morning’s weakness constitutes the first significant break above the 4.65 level and it breathes a bit more life into the uptrend that had dominated the month of April (the one that looked to be defeated by the 4.65 ceiling.
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Prospective homebuyers are facing higher costs to finance a home with the average long-term U.S. mortgage rate moving above 7% this week to its highest level in nearly five months.
The average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to 7.1% from 6.88% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.39%.
When mortgage rates rise, they can add hundreds of dollars a month in costs for borrowers, limiting how much they can afford at a time when the U.S. housing market remains constrained by relatively few homes for sale and rising home prices.
“As rates trend higher, potential homebuyers are deciding whether to buy before rates rise even more or hold off in hopes of decreases later in the year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Last week, purchase applications rose modestly, but it remains unclear how many homebuyers can withstand increasing rates in the future.”
AP business correspondent Alex Veiga reports mortgage rates reaching their highest level in months.
After climbing to a 23-year high of 7.79% in October, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage had remained below 7% since early December amid expectations that inflation would ease enough this year for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting its short-term interest rate.
Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, including how the bond market reacts to the Fed’s interest rate policy and the moves in the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.
But home loan rates have been mostly drifting higher in recent weeks as stronger-than-expected reports on employment and inflation have stoked doubts over how soon the Fed might decide to start lowering its benchmark interest rate. The uncertainty has pushed up bond yields.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to around 4.66% on Tuesday — its highest level since early November — after top officials at the Federal Reserve suggested the central bank may hold its main interest steady for a while. The Fed wants to get more confidence that inflation is sustainably heading toward its target of 2%.
The yield was at 4.64% at midday Thursday after new data on applications for unemployment benefits and a report showing manufacturing growth in the mid-Atlantic region pointed to a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy.
“With no cuts to the federal funds rate imminent and with the economy still strong, there is no reason to see downward pressure on mortgage rates right now,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. “It seems increasingly likely that mortgage rates are not going to come down any time soon.”
Sturtevant said it’s likely the average rate on a 30-year mortgage will hold close to 7% throughout the spring before easing to the mid-to-high 6% range into the summer.
Other economists also expect that mortgage rates will ease moderately later this year, with forecasts generally calling for the average rate to remain above 6%.
Mortgage rates have now risen three weeks in a row, a setback for home shoppers this spring homebuying season, traditionally the housing market’s busiest time of the year.
Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell last month as home shoppers contended with elevated mortgage rates and rising prices.
While easing mortgage rates helped push home sales higher in January and February, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage remains well above 5.1%, where was just two years ago.
That large gap between rates now and then has helped limit the number of previously occupied homes on the market because many homeowners who bought or refinanced more than two years ago are reluctant to sell and give up their fixed-rate mortgages below 3% or 4%.
Meanwhile, the cost of refinancing a home loan also got pricier this week. Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, often used to refinance longer-term mortgages, rose this week, pushing the average rate to 6.39% from 6.16% last week. A year ago it averaged 5.76%, Freddie Mac said.
Lloyds profits fall as competition for mortgages heats up
Pre-tax profits drop to £1.6bn between January and March, down from £2.3bn last year
Business live – latest updates
Lloyds Banking Group has suffered a 28% drop in first-quarter profits amid tough competition for mortgages and savings, but bosses said they expected those pressures to soon ease, helped by an improving UK economy.
The country’s largest mortgage lender, which also owns the Halifax brand, said pre-tax profits dropped to £1.6bn between January and March, having fallen from £2.3bn last year when rising interest rates boosted the lender’s profits by almost 50%.
The bank’s chief financial officer, William Chalmers, said this reflected “keen pricing in the mortgage markets, and savings moving into higher rate accounts”. Competition and jitters in the mortgage market led to a drop in its total outstanding loan book.
It resulted in a 10% drop in net interest income, which accounts for the difference in loan charges versus what is paid out to savers, to £3.2bn in the three months to March.
Pressure from politicians and regulators to pass on interest rates to savers at the same rate they had been raising mortgage and loan charges has squeezed income for major mortgage providers such as Lloyds in recent months.
In response, banks have had to compete harder for customer deposits by offering more substantial returns, particularly on fixed savings products where consumers lock away cash for longer. It attracted £1.3bn in regular customer deposits but that failed to make up for the £3.5bn pulled by business clients.
However, Chalmers said these savings and mortgage pressures were likely to “ease through 2024”, as economic conditions continued to improve.
House prices, which Lloyds previously expected to fall by 2.2% in 2024, are forecast to rise by 1.5% by the end of the year.
The banking group, often seen as a bellwether for the UK economy, is also forecasting a steady improvement in economic growth, at a rate of 0.3% in most quarters and a drop in inflation to 2.4% – from 3.2% in March – resulting in a fall in interest rates to 4.5% by December. It expects the Bank of England to cut rates three times in 2024, starting in the middle of the year.
Chalmers said mortgage applications had already soared by 20% in the first quarter, which could translate into new home loans, and reverse some of its loan book losses. That partly reflected the group’s willingness to offer better interest rates in order to boost lending.
“We’re really pleased to see the pickup in applications, and development of our market share, in that respect. And I think that represents what is a series of competitive offers out there in the market, suiting our customer needs. We’d hope to maintain that ambition over the course of the year,” Chalmers said.
Overall, the banking boss said he expected the UK mortgage market to pick up by 5% by the end of 2024. “We’d hope to play a major part in it,” Chalmers added.
The improved economic outlook meant the bank was more confident that customers could repay their loans. Despite the cost of living crisis and higher mortgage repayments, which have weighed on borrowers, Lloyds set aside £57m for potential defaults, compared with £243m last year.
The Lloyds chief executive, Charlie Nunn, said: “The group is continuing to deliver in line with expectations in the first quarter of 2024, with solid net income, cost discipline and strong asset quality. Our performance provides us with further confidence around our strategic ambitions and 2024 and 2026 guidance.”
Investors had also been hoping for updates on the Financial Conduct Authority investigation into whether consumers have been charged inflated prices for car loans. Lloyds, which has the largest car loan division of the four biggest UK banks, has already put aside £450m – far short of the £2bn that analysts believe it could be on the hook for.
However, Lloyds did not give any more details about whether it might put aside more cash to cover potential fines or compensation for customers. The FCA has indicated that it will give more details on its findings by the autumn.
Data Mining, Servicing, Marketing Products: Check Your Noncompete Agreement; Training Next Week
<meta name="smartbanner:author" content="We now have a native iPhone and Android app. Download the NEW APP”>
This website requires Javascrip to run properly.
Data Mining, Servicing, Marketing Products: Check Your Noncompete Agreement; Training Next Week
By: Rob Chrisman
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 11:23 AM
Sometimes you just have to “risk it for the biscuit.” Capital markets are, for the most part, a little more complicated than, say, a recipe for next level dark chocolate brownies with salted caramel. Occasionally the topic of LOs or brokers being able to lock a loan, any time, any day, comes up. The New York Stock Exchange, owned by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has started polling market participants on their interest in and potential implications of an exchange that trades stocks 24/7. The polling underscores growing interest in trading stocks in off-hours. Could MBS be far behind? The survey comes after 24 Exchange, backed by Steven Cohen’s Point72, applied with the Securities and Exchange Commission to start the first 24-hour exchange. The prospect of 24-hour trading, which would likely lead to changes across the ecosystem, becomes a heavier lift for exchanges as they’re supervised by the SEC. Found here, this week’s podcasts are sponsored by Calque. With The Trade-In Mortgage powered by Calque, homeowners can buy before they sell, make non-contingent offers, and tap their home equity to fund the down payment on their next home. Today’s has an interview with Michael Bremer and Peter Kallodaychsak on interactions between lenders and Realtors in the wake of the proposed NAR settlement.
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services
Down Payment Resource’s Q1 2024 Homeownership Program Index (HPI) report reveals the largest annual jump in programs since it began tracking data in 2020, with 2,373 DPA programs now available nationwide. That’s 204 more programs than Q1 2023, a 9 percent YoY increase. DPR also noted that there’s at least one program in every U.S. county and 10 or more programs available in 2,000 counties, making it highly likely DPA could boost homeownership for borrowers in your footprint. The report also documents increases in programs for manufactured housing and multi-family purchases. Lenders are reminded that DPR is a software company, with a suite of tools to help you operationalize DPA to better serve your customers and lower your declines, especially among LMI buyers. Read the full report or schedule a demo to learn more.
“Every marketing team we’ve talked to is spread thin. Thankfully, Usherpa is here to help! Partnering with Usherpa means your sales team not only gets excellent done-for-them automated marketing campaigns, but your marketing team also gets all the tools and the support they need. Usherpa has its finger on the pulse of the market continually creating new, innovative marketing campaigns… for you! Usherpa’s award-winning automated SmartScore AI Opportunity Alerts and marketing campaigns (free for enterprise clients) are built on proprietary algorithms to target prospects in LO’s databases with effective messaging, creating hot call lists and inbound requests from prospects. Wouldn’t it be nice to have this type of targeted campaign, with proven ROI, launched automatically for your loan officers? Usherpa’s SmartScore AI alerts added an extra $1.4 billion pipeline volume and funded loans (and counting). Schedule a demo today.”
“Revolutionizing mortgage servicing through digital transformation! As Sagent CTO Uday Devalla recently explained in a fireside chat with Robert Turner (Kyndryl) and Manisha Tank (CNN International), since collaborating with Kyndryl to move away from legacy data centers and into the cloud, Sagent is focused on delivering a unified servicing workflow with end-to-end data to truly transform the business processes and improve the lives of the people who use our systems. To learn more about our future-of-servicing model and the benefits of our partnership with Kyndryl, check out our recap here (and watch the interview when you get a chance) and be sure to hit us with your questions.”
Interested in learning how retain/release MSR decisions can be included in your best execution strategy? Join MCT for a webinar today at 11:00 AM PT titled Complete Best Execution – Now Including Fully Integrated Retain/Release MSR Decisioning. In this webinar, MCT will review the current state of the MSR market and discuss more comprehensive retain vs. release strategies, in addition to our recently introduced fully integrated Enhanced Best Execution (EBX) solution. MCT’s Paul Yarbrough will then provide insights from a trader’s perspective regarding MSR best execution strategies at time of loan sale. He will also highlight MCT’s Rapid Commit technology and assignment of trade processes. This session will include a live demo of the EBX (MCTlive! and MSRlive!) integration, showcasing how EBX can effectively optimize your flow MSR trading process and decisions. Register for the webinar to join the session.
Tired of granting excessive concessions that impact your bottom line? Say goodbye to unnecessary giveaways with Optimal Blue data at your fingertips! Access to OB’s data solutions empowers you to make informed decisions, leveraging real-time market insights to negotiate with confidence. With over 35 percent of loans priced and locked through our platform, we offer the depth of market data you need to optimize every deal and maximize profitability. Whether you’re a bank, credit union, or independent mortgage banker, our user-friendly data solutions make it easy to access the information you need to secure the best terms for your borrowers and your business. Learn more about Optimal Blue’s data offerings today to start saving time, money, and headaches on every loan transaction.
Snapdocs released new industry research that found lenders using the company’s eClosing platform experience 18-day faster loan velocity than their industry peers. The survey was conducted by STRATMOR Group with data self-reported by mortgage lenders. I got a note from Michael Sachdev, CEO of Snapdocs, that said eClosing technology, when paired with the right partner to scale adoption, is helping lenders set new industry benchmarks for loan processing speed, operating costs, and borrower satisfaction. So often we see vendors make claims about their product value, but this report is a good example of that validation being sourced directly from the lender users themselves.
Most Noncompetes Now Illegal, Except…
The Federal Trade Commission narrowly voted Tuesday to ban nearly all noncompete agreements, employment agreements that typically prevent workers from joining competing businesses or launching ones of their own. The FTC received more than 26,000 public comments in the months leading up to the vote. The FTC estimates about 30 million people, or one in five American workers, from minimum wage earners to CEOs, are bound by noncompetes. It says the policy change could lead to increased wages totaling nearly $300 billion per year by encouraging people to swap jobs freely. The ban, which will take effect later this year, carves out an exception for existing noncompetes that companies have given their senior executives, on the grounds that these agreements are more likely to have been negotiated. The FTC says employers should not enforce other existing noncompete agreements.
Training, Webinars, and Events Next Week
The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) will host hundreds of community bank leaders during the 2024 ICBA Capital Summit from April 28 to May 1 in Washington. As part of ICBA’s annual advocacy gathering, community bankers will meet with policymakers to discuss ICBA’s regulatory and legislative agenda and share personal accounts of their efforts to stimulate economic growth and support the diverse financial needs of consumers.
Great things are happening around the 2024 Fair Lending Forum, April 29 – May 1 in Charlotte, NC! Asurity is thrilled to announce that Josh Stein, North Carolina Attorney General, will be joining us! He will share his perspectives on fair lending during a fireside chat with our Founder and CEO, Andy Sandler titled The Role of State Attorney Generals in Fair Lending Enforcement. Other prominent speakers are Bob Broeksmit, President and CEO of MBA; Lindsey Johnson, President and CEO of CBA: Grovetta Gardineer, Sr. Deputy Comptroller for Bank Supervision Policy, OCC; Ben Olson, Senior Associate Director for Consumer Protection & Supervision, FRB; Varda Hussain, Principal Deputy Chief for Fair Lending in the Civil Rights Division, Housing and Civil Enforcement Section, DOJ; and Frank Vespa-Papaleo, Principal Deputy Director of Fair Lending, CFPB. Register at www.fairlendingforum.com.
How are Biden’s new student loan repayment programs impacting mortgage affordability? Join LoanSense for a market and student loan update. Lake Michigan Credit Union will join and share how LoanSense helps their credit union members qualify for $50,000+ more home in 21 days. Sign up for the May 1st webinar at 3PM ET.
New York MBA webinar on May 1st at 12pm will explore the journey from origination through servicing, focusing on how to initiate and maintain an electronic process leveraging the latest in digital mortgage technology. Dive into the benefits of MISMO SMART Doc® Version 3 disclosures, eNote, eVault, and the differences between hybrid and full eClosing processes with remote online notarization (RON) and in-person electronic notarization (IPEN). Additionally, strategies for default resolution with digital execution to enhance homeowner engagement and streamline servicer workflows. Hosted by Ryan Murray, Tim Anderson, Shane Hartzler with Stavvy.
If you’re in Minnesota on May 1st, 10:00am – 12:00pm and a Loan Originator, are you interested in creating and building strong realtor relationships? If so, register and attend the “Mastering the Realtor Referral Relationship” presented by Steven Ross, Author of Doors Open When You Knock.
Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for “Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One. Every Wednesday at 2:00 PM EST/11:00 AM PT join Robbie Chrisman and Justin Demola for a dive into a range of mortgage-related topics, including market trends, interest rate fluctuations, innovative mortgage products, and industry advancements. On May 1 listen to Vice President, FICO Mortgage and Capital Markets, Joe Zeibert.
Register for NALHFA Annual Conference 2024, May 1-4 in Las Vegas. Experience education and connection at NALHFA 2024 with an Affordable Housing Bus Tour, Women in Finance Luncheon & Roundtable, Speaker Sessions, and Networking Opportunities.
Thursday, May 2nd, at 3PM ET, Rich Swerbinsky is interviewing the CFPB’s Mark McArdle on what the big misconceptions about the CFPB are, and where its focus is currently.
Register for the Maryland Mortgage Bankers and Brokers Association Annual Conference, scheduled for Thursday, May 2nd, 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. in the picturesque setting of Queenstown. This year’s conference will delve deep into the dynamics of the mortgage industry and explore the current market trends. Whether you’re a seasoned professional or just stepping into the mortgage world, this event promises valuable insights to navigate the industry’s landscape.
Join Northern Michigan Luncheon, Thursday, May 2, 11:30 AM – 1:00 PM at Silver Spruce Brewing Company, to hear from a panel of VA Loan Experts and they dive into the specifics of this loan type, any changes that are coming on VA loans and much more. They’ll also be discussing the pending NAR settlement, and what changes that brings to VA loans, sales, and associated realtor fees.
Friday the 3rd we’ll see an episode of The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown covering current events in the mortgage market for 30-45 minutes starting at noon PT, 3PM ET, in “The Rundown”.
Capital Markets
Spoiler alert: the U.S. economy is motoring along with interest rates at these levels. The U.S. economy appears to be on track for a soft landing, with notable obstacles being a potential resurgence of inflation and heightened geopolitical risks. There’s been a cautious stance on interest rate adjustments from Fed members of late, and some have even floated the possibility of a hike, if warranted by data. Atlanta Fed President Bostic anticipates a slower path to achieving 2 percent inflation than the Fed originally thought, while New York Fed President Williams is not feeling any urgency to cut rates and didn’t rule out the possibility of a hike in his latest remarks. Bostic doesn’t foresee easing until year-end, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari also suggested the Fed could maintain rates throughout the year.
Looking ahead, while no changes to the fed funds rate are expected, a slowdown in the pace of balance sheet runoff is anticipated. The Committee may announce a reduction in the runoff of Treasury securities starting in June, capping it at $30 billion per month, compared to the current cap of $60 billion per month. This adjustment reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties, aiming to maintain stability while monitoring key indicators such as inflation and geopolitical developments.
We learned yesterday that new home sales jumped 8.8 percent to a 693k-unit pace in March, the strongest pace since September 2023. New home sales should continue to gradually improve with a sturdy economy, and structural affordability and availability constraints in the resale market should also help. That noted, strength in the Northeast and West regions has fluctuated, impacting supply dynamics, and higher interest rates and rising existing supply could weigh on the new home market moving forward.
Today’s economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications from MBA, which decreased 2.7 percent from one week earlier. We’ve also received the always volatile Durable goods orders for March (+2.6 percent). Later today brings some Treasury auctions that will be headlined by $30 billion 2-year FRNs and $70 billion 5-year notes. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices slightly worse than Tuesday night, the 10-year yielding 4.63 after closing yesterday at 4.60 percent, and the 2-year is at 4.94.
Employment
“Join a premier, mid-sized independent mortgage banker and award-winning lender as a Financial Controller and key member of our Senior Management Team. Recognized by National Mortgage News as one of the best companies to work for, we operate branches along the East Coast, and in Texas, with plans for strategic growth and expansion in 2024 and beyond. The Financial Controller develops and implements the overall financial strategy by overseeing accounting and cash management, driving the company’s financial planning, and managing the accounting staff within the department. The ideal candidate will have 7+ years of experience in mortgage banking and a strong background in accounting and financial management. If you are prepared to play a pivotal role as a Financial Controller in a corporate culture that is dynamic, innovative and collaborative, please email Chrisman LLC’s Anjelica Nixt to forward your confidential note. Remote or Washington DC metropolitan based.”
Figure Technology Solutions announced the appointment of Michael Tannenbaum as Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors, effective immediately. Michael comes over after stints as Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer, and Chief Business officer at Brex, and Chief Revenue Officer at SoFi. Mike Cagney, Co-Founder, and previous Chief Executive Officer of Figure, has assumed the role of Executive Chairman. (The appointment of Mr. Tannenbaum follows the launch of Figure’s DART System, a combined lien filing and eNote registry service, and the company’s AI and machine learning-powered borrower-facing chatbot, which improves customer support efficiency and further streamlines the HELOC origination process.)
A&D Mortgage announced the appointment of Satish Vishwakarma as its new Servicing Manager where he will be responsible for overseeing the day-to-day operations of the Mortgage Servicing group, ensuring the successful management of mortgage servicing teams, and leading efforts to streamline operations, enhance quality, and reduce costs.
Download our mobile app to get alerts for Rob Chrisman’s Commentary.
Share via Social Media:
All social media shares will include the image and link to this page.
Were the good old days really all that good? Sure, when mortgage rates were below 3%, it was a lot cheaper to purchase a house, but we were also in the middle of a global pandemic.
At the start of 2021, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 2.65%, according to data from Freddie Mac. During the homebuying boom of 2020 and 2021, the number of borrowers taking out new mortgages reached a more than two-decade high.
Over the past two years, a combination of high mortgage rates, low housing inventory and sluggish wage growth has crippled affordability for homebuyers.
While many are holding out for mortgage rates to fall, it’s unlikely we’ll see 2% mortgage rates any time soon. In fact, experts hope we don’t.
A return to that kind of low-rate environment would indicate major problems in the economy, said Alex Thomas, senior research analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting.
Mortgage rates typically fall during a recession. But a recession also comes with widespread unemployment, increased debt, investment losses and overall financial instability.
In today’s housing market, homebuyers should have realistic expectations. Experts predict mortgage rates to inch closer to 6% by the end of the year as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates. Record-low mortgage rates aren’t in the cards again, and that’s likely for the best.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
How did mortgage rates drop below 3% in the first place?
Economic uncertainty and market volatility — whether during an election cycle or a pandemic — impact the direction of mortgage rates. It’s often said that bad news for the economy is good news for mortgage rates, and vice versa.
A significant lever for mortgage rates is the federal funds rate, which the Fed keeps low when it needs to stimulate economic growth. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed slashed that benchmark rate to zero to bolster the economy. When there were signs of recovery in 2015, the central bank started raising interest rates again, sending mortgage rates into the 4% to 5% range until 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic sparked another economic crisis. To incentivize people to borrow and spend money — and avoid a prolonged recession — the Fed once again cut the federal funds rate to near zero and pumped money into the economy by purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage interest rates fell quickly, bottoming out in the mid-2% range in 2021.
But the combination of supply shocks, record-low rates and an extreme increase in money supply from government stimulus helped send prices way up, according to Erin Sykes, chief economist at NestSeekers International.
In early 2022, the Fed had a new problem on its hands: inflation.
💰 Federal Reserve monetary policy
In a recession, the Federal Reserve tries to spur economic growth through quantitative easing, a monetary policy that consists of cutting the federal funds rate to encourage lending and borrowing to consumers, and increasing its purchase of government-backed bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
If the Fed needs to slow the economy down and reduce the money supply in financial markets, it does opposite: quantitative tightening. By increasing the federal funds rate and tapering its bond-buying programs, the central bank raises the cost of borrowing money, which puts upward pressure on longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates.
What caused mortgage rates to surge again?
With prices surging in 2022, the Fed’s main tool was to adjust interest rates, making credit more expensive and disincentivizing borrowing. As a result of a string of aggressive rate hikes, the federal funds rate went from near zero to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, where it’s remained since last summer. Average mortgage rates skyrocketed, peaking past 8% last October.
Although inflation has gone down, the Fed isn’t ready to start lowering rates just yet. The central bank would like to see evidence of a weaker economy (including consistently lower inflation and higher unemployment) before making any adjustments to its monetary policy.
📈 How the Fed impacts mortgage rates
Though the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it controls the federal funds rate, a short-term interest rate that determines what banks charge each other to borrow money. When the federal funds rate moves up, it impacts longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates, as banks raise interest rates on home loans to keep their profit margins intact.
Why won’t mortgage rates move toward 2% again?
Economists and housing market experts agree that mortgage rates will fall over the next several years, but not below 3%.
When mortgage rates hit their record lows just a few years ago, the federal funds rate was near zero. As the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, the plan is to do so slowly and incrementally. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects the federal funds rate will take only modest adjustments down.
In the most recent policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that the federal funds rate “will not go back down to the very low levels that we saw” during the financial crisis, suggesting that the economy can adapt to a more “neutral” benchmark rate range of between 2.4% to 3.8% in the long run, i.e., less tightening, but not too much easing from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%.
The Fed would be forced to lower rates close to zero only if there were a dramatic economic shock, such as a pandemic or recession, said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. In that case, if the central bank started purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities again, there’s a possibility mortgage rates could return to those record lows.
However, without such an upheaval, there’s a floor under how low mortgage rates will go, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll ever drop to their 2020-2021 levels.
“With the Federal Reserve ending quantitative easing and stepping out of the market for mortgage-backed securities, rates will settle at a much higher level,” said Matthew Walsh, housing economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Moody’s Analytics predicts mortgage rates will stabilize between 6% and 6.5% over the next few years. That’s high compared with the recent past, yet it’s a historically normal range for mortgage rates.
How can homebuyers adapt to higher mortgage rates?
The housing market is frustrating, but prospective homebuyers are starting to come to terms with this new reality. Following the pandemic, people are moving on with their lives, whether that’s building a family, relocating, downsizing or upgrading.
For some households, that means making room in their budget for a monthly mortgage payment at a 6% or 7% rate.
When you monitor mortgage rate movement, you’re usually looking at national averages determined by weekly rate information provided by lenders. While those rates give a picture of the “typical” mortgage rate, that’s not necessarily the rate you’ll get when applying for a mortgage.
It’s possible to get a better deal on your mortgage.
To qualify for a mortgage, most lenders require you to have a minimum credit score of 620, but lenders offer the lowest mortgage rates to consumers with excellent credit scores, around 740 and above.
You might also consider purchasing mortgage points, also known as discount points. This is an extra fee you pay upfront in exchange for a lower interest rate. Each mortgage point typically costs 1% of the purchase price of a home and will lower your mortgage rate by 0.25%.
A shorter-term loan like a 15-year or 10-year mortgage will have a lower interest rate than a 30-year fixed mortgage. Your monthly payments will be higher with a shorter-term loan because you’re paying the loan off in less time, but you’ll save big on interest.
Buying a home is likely the biggest transaction you’ll make in your lifetime. Regardless of the market, carefully assess your needs and what you can afford.
There’s a reason so many people have been struggling to purchase a home this year. Not only are housing prices elevated as a result of low inventory, but mortgages are expensive to sign.
As of this writing, the average mortgage rate on a 30-year loan is 6.82%, according to Freddie Mac. But rates have fluctuated a bit since the start of the year, and they’ll likely continue to do so based on general market conditions.
Meanwhile, most mortgage experts expect rates to cool later in the year. But how low will they go? That’s the big question.
Federal Reserve actions could lower borrowing costs for home buyers
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times between 2022 and 2023 to help slow the pace of inflation. While the Fed’s actions don’t always completely correlate to movement in mortgage rates, they have the potential to influence them. As such, it’s not a big surprise that mortgages are currently expensive to sign.
There’s some good news, though. Despite the fact that inflation remains stubbornly elevated at over 3%, which is above the 2% level the Fed is targeting, it’s cooled nicely since 2022. As such, the Fed still thinks it can move forward with three interest rate cuts in 2024, the first of which could come within months.
What this means is that mortgage rates could fall quite a bit between now and the end of the year. But it’s tough to get a handle on how low they’ll go.
More: Check out our picks for the best mortgage lenders
Is it conceivable that mortgage rates will drop to about 6%? Yes. Whether they’ll go lower is the big question, and that’s a hard one to answer right now.
In January, the National Association of Realtors projected that mortgage rates would fall to 6.3% by the fourth quarter of the year. But if rates fall to 6.3% at the start of that quarter, they may be closer to the 6% mark by the end of it.
How to lock in the most competitive mortgage rate you can
It’s hard to know exactly how low mortgage rates will go in 2024. So instead of fixating on that, try to focus on steps you can take to set yourself up for a more attractive mortgage rate.
For one thing, try boosting your credit score. You can do so by paying bills on time and shedding some credit card debt. Checking your credit report for errors is also a great idea.
Also, try to work on reducing your debt-to-income ratio. That measures the percentage of your income that’s allocated toward existing debt payments. Paying off some credit card debt could help in this regard, too.
Finally, be prepared to shop around. You never know when one lender might have a better rate to offer you than another.
It’s fair to assume that mortgages will be less expensive to sign by the time 2024 gets close to wrapping up. But how much less expensive is a question that remains tough to answer.