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The Refined Mortgage Lending Company & Home Loan Lenders

Commentary

Apache is functioning normally

September 26, 2023 by Brett Tams
Apache is functioning normally

For months, I’ve been banging on about the lack of a refinance program for private-label mortgages, those not backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Sure, HARP is great for underwater homeowners whose loans are owned by the pair, but what about those who aren’t so fortunate?

I’ve brought up proposals such as HARP 3 on several occasions, along with Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley’s refinance program that targets those who hold mortgages that aren’t government-backed.

The Obama administration has also been open to an expanded HARP for these types of borrowers, but without Congressional approval, any stirrings of such relief continue to fall on deaf ears.

But apparently these borrowers are actually receiving some assistance outside of HARP.

45% of Borrowers Have Received a Loan Modification

A new commentary released today by Fitch Ratings revealed that about 45% of all underwater borrowers with private-label mortgages have received a loan modification.

The company noted that loan modifications, distressed loan liquidations, and home price gains have reduced the number of underwater loans in private-label residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) by a sizable 25%.

There are still roughly 1.5 million underwater loans in these at-risk securities, though that number has fallen from 2.04 million.

Perhaps the biggest driver has been home price increases, with double-digit growth seen in some of the hardest-hit areas, including Arizona, California, and Nevada.

Assuming home prices continue to tick higher, which they’re expected to, the number of waterlogged loans will continue to drop at a steady clip.

While this is all good and well, the carnage is far from over. Fitch said about one-third of all outstanding borrowers in private-label RMBS pools (no pun intended) remain underwater.

It’s unclear how deeply underwater they are, but underwater nonetheless.

Additionally, the company projects some regions of the United States, notably the Northeast, to experience further home price declines before bottoming.

Why This Is Good and Bad

At first glance, it appears to be good news. Underwater borrowers with all types of loans are generally getting the help they need to continue making mortgage payments and hold on to their homes.

This benefits everyone involved because it makes for a stronger housing market. But the numbers can be deceiving.

Sure, 45% of these non-Fannie/Freddie underwater borrowers received loan mods, but what type of loan mod?

Did they get a $100 off their loan each month? Did they get a .125% interest rate reduction? Was principal forgiveness involved?

We don’t know what level of assistance they received, and if history tells us anything, a lot of these private loan mods weren’t all that attractive, at least not compared to HARP.

Through HARP, borrowers have been able to refinance their mortgages to interest rates a few percentage points lower than their previous rate.

That’s serious assistance, enough to stick around and see this crisis out. The private mods are another question.

This improvement also doesn’t bode well for an expanded HARP for non-Fannie/Freddie borrowers. The more improvement we see and hear about, the less likely Congress will be to act.

So the prospects of a new assistance program are dwindling each day.

The Multnomah Pilot Program

There is a small glimmer of hope though. Last month, the Treasury Department approved a new pilot program to assist underwater borrowers without Fannie and Freddie loans.

The so-called “Rebuilding American Homeownership Assistance” (RAHA) Pilot was launched in Multnomah County, which includes the city of Portland.

It’s limited to borrowers with “significant negative equity” who intend to stay in the prpoerty for 5+ years. They must not own any other residential property and be current on the mortgage.

The RAHA Pilot features two refinancing options:

– 30-year fixed mortgage @5%
– 15-year fixed mortgage @4%

The program relies upon the Treasury’s “Hardest Hit Fund” to operate. If successful, it’s possible other states will take part as well.

But again, with all the good housing news streaming in, the odds grow less likely every day.

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

Posted in: Mortgage News, Renting Tagged: 15-year, 2, 30-year, 30-year fixed mortgage, 4%, About, Administration, All, Arizona, before, Benefits, borrowers, california, city, Commentary, company, Congress, Crisis, Digit, Distressed, double, equity, experience, Fall, Fannie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Features, Financial Wize, FinancialWize, first, Fitch Ratings, fixed, Freddie Mac, fund, good, government, great, Grow, growth, history, hold, home, Home Price, home price gains, home price increases, home prices, homeowners, homeownership, homes, Housing, Housing market, improvement, in, interest, interest rate, interest rates, loan, loan modification, Loans, LOWER, making, market, More, Mortgage, Mortgage News, mortgage payments, Mortgages, negative, Nevada, new, News, Oregon, Other, payments, pilot, points, price, Prices, principal, program, projects, property, rate, Rates, ratings, read, Refinance, refinancing, Residential, risk, RMBS, securities, states, streaming, Treasury, Treasury Department, united, united states, US, will

Apache is functioning normally

September 26, 2023 by Brett Tams
Apache is functioning normally

Data Mining, Digital Lending, Real Estate Database, Servicing Products; Conventional Conforming Program Shifts

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Data Mining, Digital Lending, Real Estate Database, Servicing Products; Conventional Conforming Program Shifts

By:
Rob Chrisman

49 Min, 7 Secs ago

As if lenders and vendors don’t have enough other stuff to worry about, the budgetary standoff in the U.S. doesn’t look like it will abate soon, raising the likelihood of the first government shutdown since 2019. Current funding for federal operations will end on October 1 unless a deal is reached or the proverbial can kicked down the road. Thousands of federal workers might be furloughed without pay. Sure it will be temporary, and its wider impact will likely be limited, but still even talking about it is lousy. According to Morgan Stanley, the last 20 government shutdowns that occurred since 1976 “appear to have had limited impact on the economy.” As for bond prices, a shutdown may cause some “temporary instability”, but this is not a given. There is talk of a short-term Continuing Resolution (CR) providing funding until later this year, but federal agencies, including HUD and Treasury, will cease to function normally. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) authorities also expire on October 1st. The Mortgage Bankers Association created a guide outlining how HUD (including FHA and Ginnie Mae), VA, and USDA would be directly affected by the furlough of government employees and the curtailment of agency operations. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Built. Built is powering smarter and faster money movement for the entire construction and real estate ecosystem, all while reducing risk. Hear an interview with Servbank’s Bryan Crofford on how companies can best invest in employees, promoting longevity and success.)

Lender and Broker Software, Programs, and Services

Life can change on a dime, and sometimes even the most prepared borrowers end up facing financial hardships they never would have imagined. Forward-thinking credit unions are preparing today, so they can be there for their members when they need help the most. It’s why Mission Federal Credit Union implemented the MSP® loan servicing system, to not only improve their own efficiencies, but better serve their members who are facing financial difficulty. Are you ready to join Mission Federal Credit Union by enhancing your technology to be there for homeowners in life’s most challenging moments? Learn more about MSP today.

One thing that you can always count on in the mortgage space, is that regulatory requirements are always changing. This is why it’s critical for Banks or Mortgage Servicers to stay vigilant with comprehensive Compliance Testing and Monitoring to mitigate exposure and minimize risk. At the MBA Annual in Philadelphia, PA, Servbank’s Shayna Arrington will be helping us all do exactly that. Watch her moderate the panel, “Today’s Top Regulatory Issues” on Tuesday, October 17 at 1:30 PM, on 200 Level, Exhibit Hall E. Want to dive deeper into how Servbank can partner with you? Servbank will have a meeting space at the W Philadelphia on 10/16 and 10/17. Schedule some time to meet with them here: [email protected] or learn more at www.servbank.com.

One-Time Close (OTC) Volume Soars to record highs at AFR Wholesale® (AFR)! While housing inventory is still at an all-time low, OTC loans have witnessed an unprecedented surge in volume! In August, AFR closed more One-Time Close loans in one month than at any other time in their long history of offering the product. Homebuyers are increasingly drawn to the convenience and cost-saving benefits of OTC loans, as they streamline the construction process, reduce paperwork, and offer more favorable terms. This surge in OTC loans at AFR is not just a testament to its effectiveness but also an indicator of the outstanding clients and partners of AFR. Breaking news: As a thank you to their clients, AFR has also brought back FHA OTC on site-built homes!! This long-awaited product is back for partners of AFR to utilize now. Partner Today or contact AFR, email or call 1-800-375-6071.

One of the biggest questions for LOs in a down market is “How do I find more agent partners?” The answer is MMI. To find the right agent partners, you need the right data. MMI has assembled the industry’s most comprehensive real estate and mortgage transaction database which is leveraged by thousands of mortgage professionals daily. Using MMI’s database, LOs can easily search & filter, find an agent and at the click of a button, push the info to a CRM like Bonzo. Sign up for a demo today to see why a majority of the top 25 lenders rely on MMI.

Free eBook: Market-Proof: How to Build a Flexible Lending Business Resilient in Upcycles & Downturns. The exaggerated upcycles and downturns of the past few years underscore just how crucial it is for lenders to build resilience and flexibility into their businesses. To overcome today’s challenges, lenders need to hone their lending process at each step. In this new eBook, Maxwell provides 12 tips from industry veterans to help you optimize your mortgage process from loan application to the secondary market. You’ll get insight from exclusive interviews with industry veterans on how to increase efficiency, access economic scale, and become resilient to market volatility like never before. Click here to download Maxwell’s new eBook “Market-Proof: How to Build a Flexible Lending Business Resilient in Upcycles & Downturns.”

The transformation from paper to digital processes offers substantial benefits, including cost reduction and improved borrower experiences. Most lenders are in a hybrid phase, blending paper and digital processes. To navigate this ongoing change and ongoing innovations in the digital lending space, lenders should consider embracing five best practices: create a successful strategy, prioritize borrower experience, ensure compliance, harness technology, and stay adaptable in the evolving digital landscape. Tackle the future of lending by staying informed and proactive. For deeper insights into this digital lending revolution and actionable steps, read the full article.

“Heading to Vegas? The Total Expert team is in full force at the Digital Mortgage conference in Las Vegas! There are three ways to interact with us. The first is to stop by booth #501 to get your Customer Intelligence ROI report and learn how you could increase funded loan volume by 20 percent. You can watch a LIVE demo of Total Expert on Tuesday 9/26. Lastly, catch our Founder & CEO Joe Welu for a panel discussion: The Customer Data Goldmine Goes Way Beyond Credit Triggers on Wednesday 9/27.Schedule time to meet with the Total Expert team in Vegas.”

Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Conventional Conforming News

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released its second quarter 2023 Foreclosure Prevention and Refinance Report. The report shows that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) completed 47,370 foreclosure prevention actions during the quarter, raising the total number of homeowners who have been helped to 6,818,471 since the start of conservatorships in September 2008. View the News Release

FHFA-OIG released two reports: Within the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the Division of Federal Home Loan Bank Regulation (DBR) is responsible for supervising the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLBank) System to ensure the safe and sound operation of the FHLBanks. In response to market disruptions, DBR adapted the scope of its Federal Home Loan Bank Supervisory Activities in 2023.

Regulated entities have not been immune to the trends affecting the labor market over the past few years. Some of the regulated entities experienced higher attrition in 2021 and 2022, consistent with trends in the broader labor market, but one Enterprise reported that its turnover rate started declining in 2022. Read the full report, People Risk at FHFA’s Regulated Entities.

Freddie Mac will update Loan Product Advisor® (LPASM) in October to support multiple recent Single-Family Seller/Servicer Guide announcements, plus more enhancements, described in Freddie Mac October LPA Releases.

Freddie Mac Loan Selling Advisor September Updates includes the following information: Uniform Loan Delivery Dataset (ULDD) Phase 4a Updates and Phase 5 Specification, Auto Evaluate on Import Loan, New Loan Delivery Rules Supporting the Duty to Serve Credit Fee Cap, Initial Principal and Interest Payment Amount Conditionality update, Auto Re-evaluate: Improvements to Modify and Evaluate, and Enhancements to Mandatory Cash Contracting.

Leverage Fannie Mae’s new edition of Beyond the Guide to help your organization build a best-in-class quality control (QC) program. Specific examples and scenarios provided can help teams understand and apply Selling Guide concepts in a way that is most impactful to their organization. A robust QC program helps strengthen loan quality ensuring a safe, sound, and resilient mortgage industry.

Fannie Mae Appraiser Update September 2023 edition focuses on dual themes of delivering high quality appraisals and understanding recent policy changes. Topics include updates to the Appraiser Independence Requirements (AIR), new options for 1004D completion, our stance on 3D printed homes, and more.

Fannie Mae posted the September Appraiser Quality Monitoring (AQM) list. Read the AQM FAQs.

Chris Whalen writes, “Our short take on the future of the GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises) looks a lot like the character played by Bruce Willis in the 1995 Terry Gilliam film, ‘Twelve Monkeys.’ Imagine if the GSEs were released from conservatorship, but then were immediately designated as a ‘systemically important financial institution’ (SIFI) by the FSOC. How do you think that would work for private investors? What would happen to the guarantee fees?”

Pennymac Conventional LLPAs updates effective for Best Efforts Commitments: Pennymac Announcement 23-58 replacement of ‘Purchase Special’ LLPA Grid with new ‘Area Median Income Adjustments’ LLPA Grid. Pennymac Announcement 23-59 introduces new ‘Investment Property’ LLPA to the ‘LLPAs by Product Feature for All Eligible Loans’ LLPA Grid. Pennymac Announcement 23-60 updates values for the ‘2nd Home Additional’ LLPA on the ‘LLPAs by Product Feature for All Eligible Loans’ LLPA Grid.

Pennymac is aligning with the FHFA based updated project review and eligibility requirements announced in Fannie Mae SEL 2023-06 and Freddie Mac Bulletin 2023-15, with the exception of any reference to co-op projects. View Announcement 23-61: GSE Updated Condo Project Review Requirements

Citizens Correspondent National Bulletin 2023-16 provides updates on the following topics: Conventional Conforming Products, Review requirements for condominium eligibility – DU and LPA, Gifts and Gifts of Equity – DU, 3D printed homes, Trust Income – DU, USDA-RD Product, Fiscal Year 2024 Conditional Commitment Notice, All Products, Disaster Tax Filing Relief.

PHH Mortgage Corporation updated Conforming Product listings for both Delegated and Non-Delegated loans.

Pennymac announcement 23-62: Fannie Mae SEL 2023-06 Condo Project Manager Updates

Citi Correspondent Lending Bulletin 2023-08 provides Credit policy updates regarding Non-Agency Depreciating Markets list updated, Condo & Co-Op Critical Repairs, Shared Equity and Shared Appreciation, LPA Asset, and Income Modeler (AIM), Continuity of Obligation: Limited Cash-Out, Hazard Insurance Update: Effective Date, and Taxpayer First Act.

On September 6, 2023, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced Selling Guide policy changes addressing multiple topics in Fannie Mae SEL-2023-08 and Freddie Mac Bulletin 2023-18.

AmeriHome Mortgage accepts all revisions, view Product Announcement 20230910-CL for details.

Capital Markets

Ahead of today’s $48 billion 2-year Treasury auction, headlines to open the week revolved around increases in oil prices that’s evidence of inflation’s stickiness, Chinese developer Evergrande calling off talks with creditors as it appears headed for bankruptcy, and reaction to hawkish Fed remarks which is forcing yet another reprice from markets. There is growing sentiment that central banks across the globe aren’t done hiking rates, and Treasury yields trended higher to open the week as a result. With the calendar turning to fall, the economy is facing a few headwinds such as the run up in oil prices, student loan payment resumption, an expanding auto workers strike, and a partial shutdown of the U.S. government.

Every lender knows that mortgage rates remain above 7 percent, and housing data released over the last week highlighted another decline in builder sentiment. Housing starts fell 11.3 percent to a 1.25-million-unit pace in August. Existing home sales were down 0.7 percent in August as low inventory, high prices, and high mortgage rates continue to weigh on sales. Hoping for lower interest rates? A recession would likely mean lower interest rates, but workers with stable jobs (most individuals) would want to take advantage of low interest rates, causing home prices to rise faster. Initial jobless claims fell to 201k for the week ending September 16, which was the lowest weekly reading since January. The JOLTS report indicated that the demand for new workers is moderating somewhat however, significant layoffs are not on the horizon.

Today’s calendar includes the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing surveys for September, Redbook same store sales, July house price indexes from S&P Case-Shiller and FHFA, September consumer confidence, August new home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing for September, Dallas Fed Texas services for September, the aforementioned Treasury auction of $48 billion 2-year notes, and remarks from Fed Governor Bowman. We begin Tuesday with Agency MBS prices a few ticks (32nds) better and the 10-year yielding 4.50 after closing yesterday at 4.54 percent. The 2-year is up at 5.12.

Employment

“At Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation, customer service is a way of life. #FairwayNation mortgage loan officers are dedicated to finding great rates and loan options for our customers while offering some of the fastest turn times in the industry. Our goal is to act as a trusted mortgage advisor, providing highly personalized service and helping you through every step of the loan process, from application to closing and beyond.”

Logan Finance Corporation, a national Non-QM mortgage lender, is excited to welcome Aaron Samples to Logan’s Executive Leadership Team as Chief Revenue Officer. To learn more about why Aaron joined one of the fastest Non-QM lenders in the nation, contact Randy Viars.

The FHA has a job opening for a Senior Underwriter: Job Announcement Number 23-HUD-2915-P. Job duties include assisting the Branch Chief in monitoring the status of goal accomplishment. Advise the Chief of potential problems in attainment of goals and objectives. Research required underwriting procedures and techniques. Serve as an expert-level resource within his/her Office on matters relating to Underwriting and other Direct Endorsement issues.

Don’t forget that private mortgage insurance companies are hiring: MGIC, National MI, Arch MI, Radian, Essent, and Enact (in no particular order). And while’s we’re at it, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And my cat Myrtle’s friend the CFPB.

Dovenmuehle Mortgage, Inc. announced that Robert Howerton has joined the organization as Chief Information Officer where he will be maintaining and expanding Dovenmuehle’s current information technology (IT) infrastructure.

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for Rob Chrisman’s Commentary.

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Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Posted in: Refinance, Renting Tagged: 2, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 3D, 3D printed homes, About, Activities, advisor, agencies, agent, air, All, AmeriHome, Announcement, app, Appraisals, appreciation, asset, Auto, Bank, bankruptcy, banks, before, Benefits, best, best practices, bond, borrowers, Breaking News, Broker, build, builder, Builder Sentiment, Built, business, Capital, Capital markets, Case-Shiller, cash, CEO, CFPB, Citi, closing, co, Commentary, companies, Compliance, condo, confidence, conservatorship, construction, Convenience, correspondent, Correspondent lending, cost, Credit, credit policy, credit union, Credit unions, creditors, CRM, Customer data, customer service, dallas, data, developer, Digital, Digital mortgage, disaster, Economy, Employment, equity, estate, existing, Existing home sales, experience, Fall, Family, Fannie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, fed, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Fees, FHA, FHFA, Finance, financial, Financial Wize, FinancialWize, first, flood, Flood insurance, foreclosure, foreclosure prevention, Freddie Mac, Free, FSOC, funding, future, gifts, Ginnie Mae, goal, goals, government, great, GSE, GSEs, guide, headlines, Hiring, history, home, home loan, home prices, Home Sales, Homebuyers, homeowners, homes, house, Housing, housing data, housing finance, Housing inventory, Housing Starts, How To, HUD, impact, improvements, in, Income, industry, Inflation, Insights, Insurance, interest, interest rates, interview, Interviews, inventory, Invest, investment, investment property, investors, january, job, jobs, labor, labor market, Las Vegas, Layoffs, leadership, Learn, lender, lenders, lending, leverage, Life, list, Listings, Live, LLPAs, loan, loan officers, Loan Product Advisor, Loans, longevity, LOS, low, Low inventory, LOWER, manufacturing, market, markets, Maxwell, MBA, MBS, Media, median, MI, mobile, Mobile App, money, More, Morgan Stanley, Mortgage, Mortgage Bankers Association, Mortgage Insurance, mortgage lender, mortgage loan, mortgage professionals, Mortgage Rates, National Flood Insurance Program, new, new home, new home sales, News, non-QM, offer, offers, office, Oil, Operations, or, organization, Other, pa, PACE, paper, paperwork, partner, PennyMac, percent, podcast, potential, price, Prices, principal, private mortgage insurance, proactive, products, Professionals, program, programs, project, projects, proof, property, Purchase, QC, quality, questions, rate, Rates, read, reading, ready, Real Estate, Recession, Refinance, Regulation, Regulatory, Repairs, report, Research, resolution, Revenue, Review, Revolution, richmond, right, rise, risk, ROI, s&p, safe, sales, Saving, search, second, Secondary, secondary market, seller, selling, Selling Guide, september, Servicing, shares, short, shutdown, single, single-family, social, Social Media, Software, space, sponsored, stable, student, student loan, student loan payment, surveys, tax, tax filing, Technology, texas, The Economy, time, tips, total expert, Transaction, transformation, Treasury, trends, trust, Underwriting, update, updates, US, USDA, VA, veterans, volatility, volume, will, work, workers

Apache is functioning normally

September 26, 2023 by Brett Tams
Apache is functioning normally

Sell Now and Wait For Something to Convince You to Buy

By:
Matthew Graham

Mon, Sep 25 2023, 4:10 PM

Sell Now and Wait For Something to Convince You to Buy

Bonds began the week with another move to long-term yield highs.  There was a wave of selling in the overnight session led by Europe and another when domestic traders ramped up for the day.  Neither were unequivocally the product of some data or news headline although there were a few scapegoats that could be mistaken for motivation.  The problem with said scapegoats is that–while they likely contributed–they were not nearly meaningful enough to justify the movement in question.  Conclusion: this sort of selling is broader and more sentiment-driven.  Traders are repricing “higher for longer” odds with the longer end of the yield curve.  Buyers are on strike until something convinces them to buy and that will be hard to do unless next week’s data is weak.  

09:55 AM

Sharply weaker overnight with more selling early and now a modest bounce.  10yr up 7.9bps at 4.515.  MBS down just over 3/8ths. 

01:16 PM

Sideways to slightly stronger into PM hours for MBS, now down 11 ticks (.34).  10yr sideways near highs, up 8.7bps at 4.523.

02:47 PM

Weakest levels of the day with 10s up 11bps at 4.546.  MBS are down 5/8ths but at least an eighth of that is attributable to illiquidity. 

04:08 PM

little-changed from the last update.  MBS down half a point.  10yr up just under 11bps at 4.544.

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Posted in: Refinance, Renting Tagged: 2023, app, bonds, Buy, buyers, Commentary, curve, data, Europe, Financial Wize, FinancialWize, graham, hours, illiquidity, in, market, MBS, mobile, Mobile App, More, Motivation, Move, News, or, Prices, Recap, Sell, selling, SEP, streaming, Treasury, under, update, will

Apache is functioning normally

September 24, 2023 by Brett Tams
Apache is functioning normally

There’s been plenty to be happy about in housing lately. Home prices seem to have bottomed, and there is talk about double-digit appreciation over the next five years.

Mortgage delinquencies continue to march lower and distressed inventories keep shrinking.

Additionally, purchase mortgage applications increased to the highest level since May of 2010, per the Mortgage Bankers Association.

However, as I noted in a recent post, all this “good news” has made it less attractive to buy a house at the moment, despite the low rates and reduced home prices.

Why? Well, for one, sellers are upping their asking price, and many of the homes that festered on the market for months are appearing again. The scary part is that this time they’ll probably sell, and at a premium!

Top Mortgage Lender Not Enthused

I’m not the only one that feels this way. The top mortgage lender in the United States, Wells Fargo, seems to think the recent run up in home prices isn’t sustainable.

In fact, economists at the San Francisco-based bank and lender noted in a special commentary that the housing market is experiencing a “bubble within a bust.”

What they mean is that there is a “temporary spike in home prices,” which will pop once conditions deteriorate.

In other words, it’s not going to be a straight line onward and upward – there will be plenty of ups and downs as the market attempts to find its “new normal.”

And there are already signs of a slowdown, with unemployment festering, economic activity cooling, and the spring home selling season off to what they call a “mediocre start.”

Additionally, homebuilder confidence took a turn for the worse recently thanks to higher construction costs, along with a shortage of developed lots and skilled workers.

On top of that, the economists believe investors will stop converting single-family homes to rentals once interest rates increase, as the returns offered for such ventures will diminish.

There’s also fear that higher mortgage rates will slow home price appreciation. Though higher rates could also push more would-be buyers to pull the trigger…

Housing Recovery Still on Track

While the headline and opening paragraph of the economists’ commentary seemed bleak, the underlying message is positive.

They still believe housing is on track to make a recovery, just at a more modest and reasonable pace. Darn.

We can’t simply erase the housing crisis in five years – it takes time to right the many wrongs that occurred, especially when we’re using artificially low mortgage rates as the solve-all.

Yes, you can snag a low mortgage payment thanks to those low rates, but don’t expect your home to double in value anytime soon.

Put simply, we got a little ahead of ourselves, as we often do with just about everything.

This is the bubble mentality in a nutshell – everyone believes at the same exact time that something is destined for greatness.

And then the crash comes…

Be Reasonable About Your Home Purchase

What this all means is that you should be prudent in your decision to purchase a home, as always.

First and foremost, a home is a shelter, not an investment. Regardless of that fact, there are still good times to buy, and bad times to buy.

If you have flexibility, it may be wise to wait it out a little longer. At the moment, the inventory is poor at best, and the competition is fierce.

As noted earlier in the post, lots of dodgy homes are making their way back to market, and the worry here is that overzealous home buyers will overlook the reasons the properties didn’t sell the first time around.

Don’t be one of those people who makes the decision to purchase a home for the sole reason that it’s the greatest time in history to buy.

That mentality often leads to disappointment once the enthusiasm wanes. Yes, housing is on the road to recovery, but don’t buy all the hype.

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

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Apache is functioning normally

September 24, 2023 by Brett Tams
Apache is functioning normally

New Yield Highs After Post-Fed Follow-Through and Econ Data

By:
Matthew Graham

Thu, Sep 21 2023, 4:07 PM

New Yield Highs After Post-Fed Follow-Through and Econ Data

Any time the market goes to sleep on a Fed day in the midst of a big move, there’s a stronger than average possibility that overseas markets will add some momentum in the prevailing direction.  That direction is “UP!” as far as rates and yields are concerned.  The overseas FOMO selling brought yields to new long term highs overnight and a big beat in Jobless Claims made for another few bps of selling.  After that, bonds managed to level off fairly well, but they may have benefited from the acceleration in stock selling.

    • Jobless Claims
      • 201k vs 225k f’cast, 221k prev
    • Philly Fed
      • -13.5 vs -0.7 f’cast, 12 prev
    • Philly Fed Prices
      • 25.7 vs 20.8 prev

08:34 AM

Much weaker overnight with additional selling after data.  10s up 8bps at 4.478.  MBS down almost half a point. 

12:52 PM

Calm trading since 9am with MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 7bps at 4.47%.

03:29 PM

Some illiquidity weighing on MBS but still generally flat.  6.0 coupons down roughly a quarter point.  10s up 7.9bps at 4.478

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Posted in: Refinance, Renting Tagged: 2023, app, average, big, bonds, calm, Commentary, coupons, data, events, fed, Financial Wize, FinancialWize, fomo, graham, illiquidity, in, market, markets, MBS, mobile, Mobile App, Move, new, Prices, Rates, Recap, selling, SEP, sleep, stock, streaming, time, trading, Treasury, weighing, will

Apache is functioning normally

September 22, 2023 by Brett Tams
Apache is functioning normally

Marketing, CRM, Fair Lending, HELOC, Non-QM Products; Webinars and Training Next Week; Why do People Move?

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Marketing, CRM, Fair Lending, HELOC, Non-QM Products; Webinars and Training Next Week; Why do People Move?

By:
Rob Chrisman

7 Hours, 28 Min ago

Sometimes I send this Commentary out from some pretty nice places, sometimes not. Today comes from the tarmac at the Newark Airport, in Row 22, sitting next to some hairy guy who’s snoring and apparently went with the “Garlic Lover’s Pizza” last night. You can decide which category today fits in. “What do you call a small pepper in the autumn? A little chili.” Tomorrow is the fall equinox. Autumn? Autumnal? Different ways of saying similar things? Do you know the difference between a loan, a mortgage, a lien, a note, and a deed of trust? There are differences, just like there are differences in the reasons why people move. Unlike the convicted felon that I spent some time with yesterday, wanting a newer, better, or larger house or apartment has been the most common specific reason cited for moves over the past two years. That’s followed by establishing one’s own household, evidenced by a change in marital status becoming a more common reason for moving in 2022 than in 2021. The percentage of movers reporting housing unit upgrades declined, suggesting a reversal of a boom in housing demand that happened in 2020, early in the COVID-19 pandemic. A quarter of movers reported family-related reasons for their move, the second most often-cited general reason for moving in 2022 and in several recent years. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by the Trade-In Mortgage powered by Calque. Homeowners can buy before they sell, make non-contingent offers, and tap their home equity to fund the down payment on their next home. Lenders can help their clients negotiate a lower purchase price, reduce their interest payments, and eliminate PMI. Hear an interview with Mayer Brown LLP’s Lauren B. Pryor on M&A activity in the mortgage space and what makes for a successful transaction in the current environment.)

Lender and Broker Software, Programs, and Services

“Cheers to 20 Years! We are proud to announce the 20 Year Anniversary for Carrington Mortgage! It’s been an incredible two decades filled with trust, growth, and a commitment to serving our partners. As we celebrate this remarkable achievement, we want to express our heartfelt gratitude for your continued support. We look forward to many more years of serving our partners. We remain committed to being the industry’s leader in Non-QM solution lending. Our team of experts is ready to help you and your borrowers with a new home purchase or a refinance, all done in a timely and professional manner. Our program and product suite includes Non-QM, FHA, VA, USDA & GSE. Our Non-QM program offers you and your borrowers features and flexibility you may not find anywhere else. We’re here to help. Please contact us for more information about our products and services.”

In challenging down economic times, Loan Vision is your solution to maximizing profitability and reducing costs in your business. With Loan Vision, companies see improvements of 25% to 35% decrease in days to close the books, 20% reduction in accounting headcount, complete LOS to G/L automation, and improved reporting and visibility that allow for better business decisions. Don’t accept a competitive disadvantage or get caught flat footed in a recovering market. To improve your cash position, gain a competitive edge, and prepare your business for sustained growth, contact Carl Wooloff to schedule a call today.

From what people are saying, The Loan Store has consistently been among the “pricing leaders” and “process leaders” with agency loans, and they’ve also really been making a nice name for themselves with their Quick-Pay HELOCs. TLS is funding HELOCs 100% within 3-5 days (and paying 175 bps in comp), and that’s a great tool for LOs looking to expand their business. Plus, word on the street is that TLS will be expanding HELOCs to Texas soon, so that’s something else for Lone Star State LO’s to get excited about. Regardless of where you’ve set up shop, price out a HELOC in the TLS/Figure HELOC portal. Or, if you haven’t signed up with TLS yet, do that here.

Recent Trends in Fair Lending Compliance! When the DOJ announced its Combatting Redlining Initiative in October 2021, it was the department’s “most aggressive and coordinated” enforcement effort against financial institutions. The initiative has cost financial institutions $40 million in the first half of 2023 alone. The DOJ and regulators have not let up on enforcement actions against financial institutions (banks, credit unions, mortgage companies, and other lenders) violating fair lending compliance laws. In fact, regulatory agencies have expanded the scope of fair lending enforcement. A recent article from the experts at Ncontracts highlights the significance of recent fair lending enforcement trends and what it means for your fair lending program. Read the full article.

Earlier this month, Apple announced the 15th version of its amazing, do-everything iPhone. It’s hard to imagine, but what if Steve Jobs never invented the iPhone? What if we all carried one device to make calls, and a completely different device to send a text? This is exactly what many lenders do today with their CRM software. They have one CRM for their retail loan officers, a different CRM for their direct-to-consumer team, and another CRM for their wholesale account executives. Wouldn’t it be nice to manage all of your business channels in just one CRM? That’s what OptifiNow Flex is: a retail, wholesale, correspondent, reverse, home equity and private money CRM that can be personalized to fit your business needs. Reach out to us to learn more and see why OptifiNow is the iPhone of mortgage CRM!

Attention Mortgage Lenders! Discover the secrets to thriving in this competitive market with our FREE white paper, tailored specifically for you. Written by Seroka Brand Development, the mortgage industry’s leading marketing and public relations company, this exclusive guide reveals top marketing and PR strategies for 2023. As the industry faces its current set of challenges, effective yet cost-conscious marketing is more crucial than ever for companies like yours, competing for every opportunity. Learn six impactful ways to reach your target market and secure success through the rest of 2023 and beyond. Don’t miss out on this invaluable resource: download your FREE white paper now.

Training, Webinars, and Events Next Week

A good place to start is here, and click on “events” for conferences in the future. Next week is the last week of September already?! Wasn’t it just Labor Day? Let’s see what’s up.

According to data from Gartner, two in three companies say customer experience is the primary area where they will compete for business. Lenders, how is your business utilizing customer feedback to drive revenue growth in today’s challenging market? Need help? Join STRATMOR Group’s customer experience experts as well as peer lenders for STRATMOR’s Customer Experience Workshop on September 25, 26 and 27. This highly interactive, virtual workshop is designed to give lenders specific, actionable ideas: you’ll learn how to optimize your loan processes to maximize repeat and referral business and achieve your growth goals in challenging market conditions. Register today!

Tuesday the 26th is the next Mortgages with Millennials with Kristin Messerli and Robbie Chrisman, and sponsored by National MI. Tune in every Tuesday at 10AM PT to the weekly video show designed to empower mortgage professionals to tap into the millennial market. This show demystifies the psychology of first-time homebuyers and offers strategies to win more market share with a key segment of the market. Sign up for a weekly reminder with the link to join and a sneak peek into the next episode.

On September 26, 2-3PM ET, FHA’s free, virtual webinar will assist FHA-approved lenders (and their auditors) with their upcoming Annual Recertification and provide information on how to successfully submit an acceptable recertification package via the Lender Electronic Assessment Portal (LEAP). For detailed information, closely review the LEAP User Manual.

Free, on-site, FHA Underwriting Training in Philadelphia, PA., September 26, 9:00 AM to 11:30 AM (Eastern) will provide an overview of FHA underwriting procedures and addresses several industry-related frequently asked questions (FAQs) as outlined in FHA’s Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1. This training will also take an in-depth look at a variety of topics including credit, income, and asset (CIA) documentation; automated underwriting systems (AUS); closing; and more.

Free, on-site, FHA Appraisal Training in Philadelphia, PA., September 26, 1:00 PM – 3:30 PM (Eastern) will provide an overview of the appraisal requirements outlined in FHA’s Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1. The training topics will include property inspection requirements, appraisal validity period, manufactured homes, water and septic, attic and crawl spaces inspection, and the FHA Appraiser Roster.

If you are looking for the housing policy and fintech event of the year to watch from the comfort of your office, Housing Finance Strategies’ #HousingDC23 is it. The agenda is published, and Complimentary Registration is now available. Sign up to view the premium content offered virtually and accessible to you starting September 26th.

If your credit union’s due diligence for quality control relies only on last-minute adjustments during post-closing processes, chances are you’re spending too much time putting out fires rather than adequately serving members’ needs. Market changes demand a more comprehensive and proactive approach to due diligence, and the experts at ACES Quality Management have the wherewithal to help you make that adjustment. Tune into this Inside Track webinar on September 27th at 1 pm CST to learn the why’s and how’s of improving your QC processes.

Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for “Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One. Every Wednesday at 2:00 PM EST/11:00 AM PT is a dive into a range of mortgage-related topics, including market trends, interest rate fluctuations, innovative mortgage products, and industry advancements. Listen to a unique mix of age perspective, expertise, and charisma to the screen, ensuring that the information is not only educational but also entertaining.

California MBA upcoming Mortgage Quality and Compliance Committee webinar, Navigating the Future of Work: Adapting Return to Office Policies, on Thursday September 28th at 11 A.M. PST. Expert panelists will provide valuable insight on the ever-changing work dynamics, the challenges of managing remote and in-house teams, and MLO enhanced requirements in CA (and other states).

AzAMP Annual EXPO, Luncheon, and 8-Hour NMLS CE Class, September 27–28, at the We-Ko-Pa Resort and Casino. Begin your experience on Wednesday, Sept. 27 with Part 1 of NMLS CE class. Full day of events begins on Thursday, September 28 including NMLS CE class Part 2, Luncheon with Keynote Speakers Allen Beydoun, UWM Executive Vice President and Robbie and Rob Chrisman, The Chrisman Commentary Daily Mortgage News, followed by the AzAMP Expo.

Watch on demand, at your leisure: Millennials and Gen Z’ers represent the largest group of first-time homebuyers. In less than 10 years, 3.1 million will have entered the market. Of these buyers, roughly 75 percent of them report checking social media daily. Making social media a necessary strategy for loan officers. Join Homebot’s VP of Marketing, Ashley Remstad and Mortgage Advisor Sosi Avila as they discuss key strategies and tactics for using social media to your advantage. Register for the webinar here.

The NCEO 2023 Fall Forum in Houston is September 26-28. Featuring top industry experts and thought leaders, the forum will update you on the latest trends and best practices in employee ownership. Network with other employee owners and industry professionals from across the country, sharing ideas, challenges, and successes.

Friday the 29th is The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown covering current events in the mortgage market for 30-45 minutes starting at noon PT in “The Rundown”.

Capital Markets

Remember when all the “smartest guys in the room” were telling us that an inverted yield curve was a nearly sure sign of a recession? I haven’t heard that one lately. Even with the Fed just signaling lower interest rate volatility going forward, in theory translating into tightening MBS spreads and lower rates, mortgage rates still jumped by over .125 percent yesterday thanks to falling bond prices and “non-trivial stack decompression.” Much of the decrease in bond prices over the past couple of days stems from the markets still trying to fight the Fed. The yield curve remains highly inverted and will only unwind once the hard landing scenario becomes less probable.

On the data front, Existing home sales decreased 0.7 percent month-over-month in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.04 million as sales were down 15 percent from the same period a year ago due to a well-known confluence of factors: higher mortgage rates, higher prices, limited supply, a lack of mobility, and homeowners who are reluctant to give up a low-rate mortgage. Keep in mind that an economic recession could also bring about an increase in inventory, as those who lose jobs may be forced to sell their homes and those uncertain about their jobs will not have the confidence to buy a home. While the overall U.S. economy remains resilient, there are growing signs starting to show U.S. households tightening budgets or starting to reduce discretionary spending.

Today’s economic calendar includes flash PMIs for much of Europe where modest increases are expected versus the prior readings. Domestically, S&P Global PMIs will be released later this morning, though the bigger headline is the resumption of Fed speakers following Wednesday’s FOMC events. Markets will receive remarks from Governor Cook, Boston President Collins, Minneapolis President Kashkari, and San Francisco President Daly. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices unchanged, the 10-year unchanged from Thursday at 4.48 percent, and the 2-year at 5.13.

Employment

“What distinguishes a company in the mortgage lending game? For Evergreen Home LoansTM, it’s an unwavering dedication to customer experience. As Evergreen’s CMO, Haavard Sterri, puts it, “At Evergreen Home Loans, customer satisfaction isn’t just a metric; it’s our mission. We go above and beyond to ensure our clients not only receive exceptional financial solutions but also feel valued every step of the way.” Take the Security Plus program, a gem that offers clients pre-approved, underwritten loans before house hunting begins. But why should job seekers pay attention? A firm that champions customer needs typically scores high on employee satisfaction. At Evergreen, you’re not a replaceable part; you’re integral to a collective mission of transforming the homebuying process. In a crowded field, Evergreen shines by marrying excellent customer service with fulfilling career opportunities. If you’re on the job hunt and value innovation, teamwork, and a relentless focus on the customer, Evergreen beckons. To view all open Evergreen careers visit our careers page.”

In the Northwest and California, Banner Bank is searching for Mortgage Loan Officers looking to create lasting Realtor and builder relationships at a bank focused on the market today. Banner has opportunities for lenders looking for local decision making with FHA, VA, USDA, state bond and true Portfolio lending opportunities along with servicing retained Fannie and Freddie loans to assist in client retention. Additional highlighted products cover CRA lending with private label no payment down payment assistance to help assist all borrowers with the right opportunity. Banner is the right fit for an established team, or the individual looking to grow their business and take the next step in their career. Please send resumes to Aaron Miller.

As a mortgage sales professional have you ever thought, “What if I could focus on only the things that actually grow my business, flipping the hourglass and spending 80 percent of my time on what I do best: building relationships?” Or “What if I could surround myself with sales support that is truly team inspired, results driven marketing and customer obsessed headache-free process?” Welcome to radius financial group! They started radius with one main focus: to offer a better value proposition than any other bank or mortgage company in the country for you, your borrowers and your referral partners. radius can help you grow your business, have a better quality of life, and make more money. For confidential inquires please contact Carla Herrera.

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Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Apache is functioning normally

September 22, 2023 by Brett Tams
Apache is functioning normally

No one can predict the future of real estate, but you can prepare. Find out what to prepare for and pick up the tools you’ll need at the immersive Virtual Inman Connect on Nov. 1-2, 2023. And don’t miss Inman Connect New York on Jan. 23-25, 2024, where AI, capital and more will be center stage. Bet big on the roaring future, and join us at Connect.

The U.S. looks to be headed for a “mild recession” in the first half of next year, but continued strength in the economy could keep mortgage rates from coming down as much as previously expected, economists at mortgage giant Fannie Mae said in a forecast released Monday.

While the Federal Reserve isn’t expected to raise rates when policymakers wrap up a two-day meeting Wednesday, persistent inflation could still prompt the Fed to hike rates later this year, or implement a “higher for longer” rate strategy.

The good news is that even though mortgage rates have settled in above 7 percent, the risk that rates will do even more damage to home sales is limited, as the share of cash purchases remains high and sales are now driven more by life events than discretionary move-up buys, Fannie Mae forecasters said.

Nevertheless, Fannie Mae economists forecast that home sales will drop by 14.7 percent this year, and stay at about the same level next year.

“We expect that total housing market activity will remain at a low level into 2024 as the Federal Reserve continues to hold the line on interest rates against inflation,” Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan said, in a statement.

Last month, economists at Fannie Mae were expecting rates for 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgages would peak at 6.8 percent during the third quarter of this year before retreating to an average of 6 percent during the final three months of 2024. Forecasters at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) were even more optimistic, predicting mortgage rates would drop to an average of 5 percent by Q4 2024.

Mortgage rates projected to ease next year

Source: Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts.

That was before strong economic data sent rates on the popular 30-year fixed-rate conforming loans soaring to a 2023 high of 7.30 percent, according to rate lock data tracked by the Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices, which show rates have only pulled back slightly since then.

With the economy cooling more slowly than expected, Fannie Mae analysts now see mortgage rates peaking at 7.1 percent during the final three months of 2023, before easing to 6.3 percent by Q4 2024. In releasing their latest forecast Monday, MBA economists predicted mortgage rates will start coming down this year, but remain well above 5 percent next year.

Home sales projected to drop 17.4% this year

Source: Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, September 2023.

Fannie Mae is forecasting 4.8 million total home sales in 2023, which would be a 17.4 percent drop from last year and the slowest annual pace since 2011. Next year isn’t expected to be much different, with sales expected to bounce back by less than 1 percent.

“While the additional downside risk from rate movements to date is minimal, the prospects of a recovery in existing sales in the near future is unlikely given strong mortgage rate ‘lock-in’ effects and stressed affordability,” Fannie Mae economists said in commentary accompanying their September forecast.

New home sales are expected to grow by more than 6 percent this year, as builders race to complete homes in markets where the lock-in effect — reluctance on the part of homeowners to give up the low rate on their existing mortgage — has made listings scarce.

“New home sales were surprisingly strong in the first half of the year, due partly to homebuilder rate buydowns, which become more expensive when mortgage rates rise,” Duncan noted. But he said Fannie Mae forecasters expect new home sales to pull back slightly next year, “due to the higher mortgage rate environment and recent decline in homebuilder confidence.”

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, a gauge of builder confidence, dipped six points in August and another five points in September, to 45. It was the first time the index has been below 50 in five months, which indicates more builders view conditions as poor than good.

The recent rebound in mortgage rates “is making homebuilders nervous,” Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson said in a note to clients Monday.

“To be clear, the impact of mortgage rates returning to 7-1/4 percent from their recent 6-1/2 percent lows will be nothing like as bad as the initial surge from 3 percent to 7-1/4 percent in the year to September 2022,” Shepherdson said. “But it ought to be enough to quash the nonsensical media/Fed narrative that the housing market is starting to recover. It isn’t.”

Large pipeline of multifamily housing coming online

Source: Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, September 2023.

Fannie Mae economists expect single-family housing starts to plateau at 910,000 next year, and for multifamily construction to slow by 22 percent, to 389,000 units.

“With sluggish rent growth on a national level, more normalized vacancy rates, and tighter construction and development loan lending standards, we expect multifamily construction starts to continue to slow,” Fannie Mae forecasters said. “These dynamics may also play into softening demand for single-family housing: There is a large pipeline of multifamily housing coming online, and the rent-to-buy calculus for prospective homebuyers may tilt a little more in favor of renting for longer.”

Mortgage lending expected to grow by 20% next year

Source: Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, September 2023.

With home prices holding firm and mortgage rates expected to ease next year, Fannie Mae forecasters expect mortgage originations will grow by 20 percent next year. The slight uptick in home sales projected for next year would boost purchase loan originations by 9.4 percent, to $1.433 trillion, while lower mortgage rates are expected to boost refinancing by 76 percent, to $442 billion.

Mild recession seen as ‘likeliest outcome’ of Fed tightening

Fannie Mae economists have been predicting that the U.S. was headed for a recession since April 2022, after the Fed began raising interest rates and the impact of stimulus measures introduced during the pandemic faded.

While mixed economic data continues to “muddle the near-term outlook,” Fannie Mae economists say they continue to expect a “mild recession” in the first half of 2024, based on the belief that consumers will need to rein in spending in order to live within their means.

“Fundamentally, personal consumption remains at what we believe to be an unsustainable level relative to incomes, and the full effects of monetary policy tightening are still working through the economy,” Fannie Mae forecasters said.

In their weekly brief on the U.S. economy, Shepherdson and his Pantheon Macroeconomics colleague Kieran Clancy noted three potential wildcards on the economic horizon: A strike launched last week by the United Auto Workers targeting the big three automakers, next month’s resumption of federal student loan payments, and a “likely” government shutdown.

“An all-out strike lasting a month could be expected to depress quarterly GDP [gross domestic product] growth by about 1.7 percentage points, before taking account of the hit to the supply chain,” the Pantheon Macroeconomics team said. “The problem for the Fed is that it would be impossible to know in real time how much of any slowing in economic growth could confidently be pinned the strike, and how much could be due to other factors, notably the hit to consumption from the restart of student loan payments. The latter already is making itself felt in falling restaurant diner and airline passenger numbers.”

Fannie Mae economists agree that a sustained strike could “drive a negative payroll report in October, as well as dampen the GDP measure,” but that a short-lived strike “would likely be followed by a rebound in auto manufacturing output thereafter.”

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Source: inman.com

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Apache is functioning normally

September 21, 2023 by Brett Tams
Apache is functioning normally

Learning how to make a big deal out of every Fed day is a requirement for passing the market commentary test.  But the often-overlooked extra credit can be earned in an elective: “How to be smugly dismissive about the potential impact of a Fed day.”  Today’s approach is probably between the two.  Smug dismissiveness would get the nod were it not for an updated dot plot–something the market always finds a way to react to.  It is also possible that Powell has something interesting to say in the press conference, although not incredibly likely.  

The market has taken the opportunity during the summertime months to price out the concerns associated with the bank failures earlier in the year and price in “higher for longer.”  Case in point, markets have seen today’s meeting in the 5.25-5.5% Fed Funds Rate range since June.  At the same time, there was more than 100bps of rate cuts priced in over the following 12 month.  Notice the closing of the gap between the highest and lowest lines since June in the following chart:

Long story short, traders are reasonably confident the Fed is at the ceiling, but they’re leaving the door open for one more hike if the data remains overly resilient.  Either way, the majority of the Fed’s policy transmission has been and will continue to be in just how long “longer” means.

Those thoughts can be communicated in two key places today: the press conference and the dot plot.  Of the two, the dots will be the most interesting considering we’ve had several decent CPI/PCE readings since the last update in June offset by persistently good labor market data and a 20 dollar per barrel surge in oil prices.  Those offsetting factors will likely lead to a shift in the dots resembling the following chart.  The higher and flatter the actual green line ends up being, the worse it will be for bonds today.  And if, by some weird miracle, the green line doesn’t rise above the red line, the market will conclude the Fed is concerned about something, thus leading to a big bond rally (not likely… just laying out the other side of the spectrum).

 

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Apache is functioning normally

September 21, 2023 by Brett Tams
Apache is functioning normally

Higher For Longer

By:
Matthew Graham

Wed, Sep 20 2023, 4:43 PM

Higher For Longer

Today’s Fed announcement was largely as expected: no rate hike, “data dependent,” and “higher for longer” communicated via the dots.  The direction of the change in the dot plot is no surprise, but the magnitude was.  The median Fed member moved their forecast up by 0.50% through both 2024 and 2025.  Granted, those forecasts have a poor track record of predicting the future, but they speak to the Fed’s will to continue hiking if the data remains resilient. Bonds held their ground reasonably well at first, but late day position squaring resulted in a break to new long term yield highs. 

  • Fed Dot Plot Changes

    •  2023
      • 5.625% (range 5.375% to 5.625%); prior 5.625%
    • 2024 
      • 5.125% (range 4.375% to 6.125%); prior 4.625
    • 2025 
      • 3.875% (range 2.625% to 5.625%); prior 3.375%
    • 2026 
      • 2.875% (range 2.375% to 4.875%)

09:24 AM

gradually but modestly stronger throughout the overnight session.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19). 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.329.

01:24 PM

10yr down 4.6bps, near best levels at 4.317.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) again after some AM volatility.

02:05 PM

Sharply weaker after Fed announcement.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up to 4.359

03:22 PM

Volatile 2-way trading since Fed.  Powell press conference is over.  MBS down 7 ticks during moments of illiquidity (-0.22) but only 1-2 ticks otherwise (0.03-0.06).  10yr down 1bp on the day at 4.353.

04:41 PM

Weakest levels of the day.  MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.397.

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Apache is functioning normally

September 18, 2023 by Brett Tams
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HELOC, Manufactured, Technology, Marketing, and Digital Tools; Central Banks and Inflation

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HELOC, Manufactured, Technology, Marketing, and Digital Tools; Central Banks and Inflation

By:
Rob Chrisman

7 Hours, 56 Min ago

If you want something sobering, almost mesmerizing, here’s a short drone video of the flood damage in Libya (at the 15 second mark you can see how it tore through the city). Fortunately not so sobering are some stats out of the United States. The U.S. homeownership rate in 2022 was even higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic at 65.8 percent compared to 64.6 percent in 2019. That rebound was driven largely by those aged 44 and younger. And who says Millennials aren’t buying homes? Homeownership continued to climb from the foreclosure crisis (2004) and Great Recession (2008), when rates dipped as low as 63.4 percent in 2016. Homeownership rates recovered approximately half of the 5.6 percent decrease from 2004 to 2016. In Hawai’i the homeownership rate is 59 percent, I bring up the Aloha State because American Savings Bank, First Hawaiian Bank, and Central Pacific Bank joined Hawaiʻi Community Lending, a Hawaiʻi-based nonprofit community development financial institution, in pledging to provide mortgage forbearances to Maui families impacted by the recent wildfires. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by the Trade-In Mortgage powered by Calque. Homeowners can buy before they sell, make non-contingent offers, and tap their home equity to fund the down payment on their next home. Lenders can help their clients negotiate a lower purchase price, reduce their interest payments, and eliminate PMI. Today’s podcast features Greg Korn and Ben Petit in an interview from the New England Mortgage Bankers Conference.)

Lender and Broker Software, Products, and Services

In an era defined by technological advancements, Dark Matter Technologies LLC emerges as a transformative force in the mortgage origination landscape, marking its evolution from Black Knight Origination Technologies. Under the Perseus Operating Group of Constellation Software Inc., Dark Matter Technologies remains steadfast in its commitment to pioneering innovation. CEO Rich Gagliano aptly sums up the company’s vision: “Dark Matter Technologies is on a mission to revolutionize the mortgage origination business by supporting, growing, and aggressively innovating new and existing products.” With over 1,300 dedicated mortgage technology experts and a portfolio that includes Empower, AIVA, Exchange, and more, Dark Matter Technologies is poised to lead the industry into a new era of unparalleled transformation. Learn more about Dark Matter Technologies and their mission, here.

There is approximately $9T in agency or government MSR outstanding. Billions of dollars are being transacted daily and this volume requires disciplined loan accounting processes to record loans accurately, produce investor reporting, and power business decisions. SBO from SitusAMC is a comprehensive loan accounting and master servicing platform that reconciles daily and monthly servicer cash collections down to the penny, aiding in the discovery of potentially misplaced funds and enhancing the financial integrity of the entire process. Servicers using SBO produce accurate and timely details providing confidence that their investor reporting obligations are being met. Schedule a demo of SBO with SitusAMC’s client-focused experts.

“Did you hear Capacity’s big announcement at TMC Fall? We’ve acquired Denim Social! Together, we’re building a support automation platform that helps you automate support, connect more authentically with your borrowers, and close more loans, faster. Read the press release to learn more! We also gave away a personalized AI Assessment worth $10,000 to help mortgage lenders identify opportunities for improving their business with AI. Plus, our new GSE Search feature pulls accurate, up to date GSE regulations within seconds using generative AI. Want to join the AI in mortgage revolution? Meet the Capacity team today.”

A new era in loan origination has arrived. Mortgage Machine Services, an industry leader in digital origination technology to residential mortgage lenders, announced the launch of its namesake platform Mortgage Machine™, an out-of-the-box, all-in-one LOS designed to accelerate lenders’ operational velocity and support an end-to-end digital origination process. Developed by digital mortgage pioneer and industry veteran Jeff Bode, Mortgage Machine utilizes intelligent automation, configurable business workflows and a cloud-based infrastructure to optimize the entire loan lifecycle and create a seamless lending experience. Key platform features include AI-powered task automation, a scalable cloud-based infrastructure, flexible APIs, pre-configured workflows for retail and TPO channels, integrated document management and POS functionality. Mortgage Machine also offers all-in-one eClosing capabilities, including an eClose room, eNotes, eVault and RON, and utilizes MISMO SMART Doc® data and security standards. Visit here to get started on your digital transformation journey.

Blend Labs continues to be the mortgage industry’s leading technology platform. Core to the platform is Blend’s unique integration with Desktop Underwriter® (DU®) and LPA. These integrations help streamline your approval process for borrowers, with all the conditions lined up for your fulfillment team. Add in intelligent and automated follow-ups and you’ll get to the closing table faster and more efficiently. Putting this information at the loan officer’s fingertips creates a streamlined process and eliminates manual work which equals lower costs, higher pull-through, and increased revenue. See more ways that Blend is committing to innovation and continues to lead the way.

Looking for timely advice on how to capture more loan volume and improve your bottom line in a down market? Now is the time to explore ways to tap into new markets. Expanding your mortgage footprint through new products and channels or by reaching new geographies insulates your business against economic and interest rate volatility by diversifying your sources of volume and revenue. By setting the groundwork to connect with new borrower markets now, you’ll open new revenue possibilities for when the market inevitably recovers, positioning your business to hit the ground running and beat out the competition. Download this informative eBook from mortgage solutions provider Maxwell for actionable advice, including how to create your expansion plan and choose the offerings best suited to the markets you want to pursue. Click here to download Growing Your Mortgage Footprint: How to Launch New Loan Products, Channels & Geographic Expansions.

Broker and Correspondent Products

Build your book with AFR Wholesale® (AFR)! Now, get the chance to listen from and ask questions directly to AFR and Freddie Mac to turn those prospects to active pipeline at the next Why Wait webinar series covering Manufactured Home Financing on Wednesday, September 20th at 1 PM EST. Register here today! Have you and your borrowers looked into Manufactured Housing as an option? With unbeatable affordability, customization options that are very tailored, quick installation and trusted quality, manufactured homes are worth exploring. Especially with a top lending partner in AFR who has been an industry leader for over 25 years. This is a live webinar, and a recording will not be provided so make sure to join and get great insight and have the opportunity to ask questions and listen to scenarios! Visit AFR Wholesale, email [email protected], or dial 1-800-375-6071. AFR Wholesale® – Don’t wait. Register today!

“With Cash-Outs on the decline during this high interest rate environment, it is important to present your borrowers with different cash-out options. That is why Vista Point is announcing a brand new HELOC product coming soon, in addition to our existing Closed-End Second. Our HELOC product is being designed as a complement to our Closed-End Second to provide a full suite of Equity Solutions. Our HELOC will provide a specific solution for borrowers that want the optionality of an interest-only payment, or the ability to draw up and buy down their line during the 5-year draw period with no Appraisals up to $250k. Just like on our Closed-End Second offering, with HELOC loan amounts up to $550K and combined lien amounts up to $2.5M, your borrowers can get the cash they need without sacrificing their advantageous 1st mortgage rate. HELOC will be available for full doc and bank statements on OO and 2nd homes. For more information, reach out to us, or meet us at the Philly MBA to discuss.”

Capital Markets

We learned last week that prices in August rose by the largest monthly percentage in 15 months. However, that month-over-month inflation was widely expected due to a surge in gasoline prices. Underlying oil prices are also pointing towards further increases in September. Meanwhile, core prices were up 0.3 percent and core goods prices declined by 0.1 percent. Over the last three months core prices have increased at an annualized pace of 2.4 percent, the lowest three-month pace since March 2021. Retail sales rose faster than analysts’ expectations in August, also due to higher gas prices. Many analysts expect consumer spending to slow as excess savings built up over the pandemic have materially declined and credit is increasingly costly and difficult to obtain. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments is expected to cut into discretionary spending. It will take more than expectations of slower spending before the Federal Reserve feels inflation is firmly under control.

What could move mortgage rates this week? The U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the central banks of Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland are all announcing rate decisions after a spate of recent inflation data shows that price increases are alive and well. The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the action arm of “the Fed,” is not expected to raise rates. It’s unlikely that the commentary around the commitment to keep fighting inflation and higher rates for longer will change either, but it could tilt a little more to the hawkish side after a stronger-than-anticipated inflation report for August.

The week could also see some extra drama on the political front as the countdown continues toward a potential government shutdown on October 1 in addition to the battle between the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and Detroit automakers. The auto worker strike could complicate Fed Chair Powell’s bid for a soft landing. Union leaders are asking for a 36 percent wage increase over four years, to match the similar recent pay increase for top executives. The union also wants pay to rise automatically with inflation in the future, as it did before the financial crisis.

This week brings the aforementioned FOMC meeting that begins tomorrow and concludes on Wednesday with the Statement, updated SEP (where fed funds projections will be closely scrutinized), and Chair Powell’s press conference. The treasury will also be in the headlines with more coupon auctions scheduled: $13 billion reopened 20-year bonds tomorrow and $15 billion reopened 10-year TIPS on Thursday. The only scheduled, probably non-market moving, news out today is the NAHB Housing Market Index for September. We begin the week with Agency MBS prices roughly unchanged from Friday, the 10-year yielding 4.34 after closing last week at 4.33 percent, and the 2-year is at 5.00 percent.

Employment

Are you more energized, more encouraged, and more motivated to succeed today than yesterday? Zig Ziglar famously stated, “People often say that motivation doesn’t last. Well, neither does bathing; that’s why we recommend it daily.” “As an industry leader, Thrive knows that motivation, discipline, and belief in your ability to succeed is critical,” stated Randell Gillespie, National Sales Leader for Thrive Mortgage. “There is no better time than now to find ways to continually motivate your team, which is why we put so much focus on daily opportunities like these at Thrive. Through our weekly High-Performance Coaching Calls, our very own nationally-recognized Marketing Master, James Duncan, leads these motivating and educational experiences for results. The biggest names in the mortgage industry and thought-leadership have been part of our Thrive Nation broadcasts. We want everyone to be better today than yesterday. Start a conversation with us and find out how.

“The fall season is here, and now more than ever is the time to build rapport with your referral partners and clients to maintain a steady stream of business. At Guaranteed Rate Affinity, not only do we have the greatest number of products, but we have the tech platform for our loan officers to do business from anywhere. With PowerVP, you can do anything from creating loan applications to sending pre-approval letters all from your mobile phone. Anything you could do from your desk, you can now do on the go with PowerVP. Gone are the days of being chained to your desk and missing out on important moments. Primarily, it gives you a work-life balance you never thought possible. Luckily, we’re hiring the best of the best loan officers to leverage our tech platform to grow their business. Ready to learn more? Contact Tim McGraw to get started.”

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